First year keeper, myself in Washington state. So take my advice with a grain of salt. But I thought I'd comment since no one else has. I had similar problems as far as population decline. I watched it happen. My bees dropping in numbers. And asked around in my club. Had a mentor come out. And he pointed out my queens laying pattern was very week. As is yours. I'd suspect something is wrong with her. Yes she's there. But there should be only so many empty cells per square inch of comb. Forgive me, I've forgotten the number. But it's low, 4 or 5. And in a cluster/not shotguned, so it's easier for the nurse bees to keep warm and take care of. Meaning she isn't laying right. I requeened and got a good laying queen and the colony took off and exceeded population numbers compared to my other hive. Good luck making it through the winter with your girls. I'm very interested in the AZ hives.