Fed Rate Cuts: The Hidden Opportunity No One's Talking About!

[@raymicciche8869]

M2 has contracted 700 billion since April 2022. That has happened only 4 other times since 1913, each time resulting in recession or depression (1929-33). Meanwhile the price level of virtually everything is permanently up 20%. Schiller PE ratio is 36, 2nd highest reading in history by far aside from 2000. 13 major cities have home price to income ratios above 6. Good luck cutting rates.

[@TheEngineeringToolboxChannel]

Considering M2 rose 6T from 2020-2022 (+25% of TOTAL M2)….a 700B contraction seems like no factor and necessary to get inflation under control. This was done through QT. In ‘95…M2 was flattened off, inflation had been elevated in the years prior, and P/Es were high too but m2 started to increase again after rate cutes and ultimately everything just went higher. Agree that SP500 is overpriced but There are plenty of companies and sectors that are not. I do agree that we are likely at/near a peak and recession is just around the corner but at the same time I’m not so sure. That’s why I just DCA always

[@bantyran]

Hands down the best , most underrated channel on YT. All facts. No gurus giving their opinion only. I send everyone to listen to you... Ok, maybe a guru one-day 😄 lol

[@sharonmessenmaker6311]

Im 45 and really never ever thought that i would be intrested in monotary policy and investing. And now I just love it. Thank you so much for breaking this down for us Mark. You are outstanding. Especially with all the doom and gloomers out there. Really greatfull. Lots of love from the netherlands Ps: sorry for my broken grammer. Im to lazy to translate all but im sure you receive my graditude.

[@lyricsworld320]

You are 45 and looking beautiful

[@princesingh-eo1sm]

Everyone is cooking their books to show you everything is just fine but in reality everything is fucked

[@bpb5541]

Exactly. The reason we got the jobs number revision is that it is clearly way over a million off not 800k off. They can't hide it anymore. Like GDP too. I mean if you take out govt debt GDP is horrible. They won't be able to hide that either. What is really going to freak people out is when they figure out the Ai bubble is being held up under the same schemes. NVDA made a crap ton of money, they gave that money to buy their chips. I don't trust them ... just Google NVDA and SEC, they have been caught in the past for shady stuff.

[@adamhatcher6620]

@princesingh-eo1sm I agree they definitely trying to make it seem all good

[@BlackSwansFine-co6cd]

I know a district court officer in my area. Bankruptcy, garnishment, divorce, protection orders, crime, and unemployment are skyrocketing in my area. Biggest factory in town lay off 50% of workforce with no notice last week. Car dealers lots packed like never before. Were crashing here.

[@adamhatcher6620]

Yes it's very obvious we are crashing

[@MrMcSnuffyFluffy]

Yep, I'm in manufacturing, and we've been crashing for months. .....Usually the market bottoms 3 months into a recession.

[@pauldanaila1610]

I am happily sitting on 5%interest+15%gold watching Mark, Peter, David, Henrik, Lacy... Too much credit defying gravity.

[@trybeatingthis]

What I love about Mark is that he is inherently a contrarian. Contrarians are those who make money. And I love his bold calls. Keep up the good work MArk!

[@EdSur-x3q]

$HEX

[@1contrarian]

I agree

[@simsammalinao1823]

Ditto.

[@shammuk02]

U r 100% correct I had all my money in saving account cuz I can earn 5%.... now I moved it all to Bitcoin waiting for the rate cut and banana zone incoming

[@shammuk02]

@@Joseph-wu6kd They said the same thing in 2019 now look at where its at bruh

[@penabatkhemah5627]

Thank god for sending Mark Moss to me....this the channel i need...

[@5454wow]

Mark, this is all new to me, and you simplify your post in a way that a nub like me can understand. Love it, keep um coming.

[@TheBeav30]

Anytime they cut as unemployment was going up recession followed and markets corrected. Remember almost no one was able to call the last BTC top , all you heard was 100k on KZbin.

[@patriknorsten5813]

Great video as allways! It´s so valuable to be able to go back to earlier episodes and watch again and again. Just fantastic presentations as allways! Thank you Moss! From Sweden

[@adambrooks7423]

You quoted Powell saying he was willing to break stuff because he has the tools to fix it. David Rosenberg and Steve Hanke think it’s already broken. I’m guessing short term corrections followed by increased liquidity and asset boom. Hopefully you’re right and no correction happens but I think we get a correction.

[@NastyDevil137]

Unemployment never spiked in 95’! There was no recession in 95’! That is a HUGE DIFFERENCE

[@internettoughguy5943]

He’s cherry picking data

[@lavague7648]

I love to see smart people talking with solid arguments. Unfortunatelly fed's pivot will not be free lunch for equities 😊. 1st and foremost even more cash will flock to risk free tbonds to lock high yields. 2nd There is 1 Trilion usd denominated assets held by oversees. Those investors aim to cash out at usd pick values just close to the pivot. 3rd Mag7 are RATE INCENCITIVE. How the heck low rates will drive s&p higher 😉?

[@LJSheffRBLX]

Mark Moss, Your videos always make me happy, so I subscribed!

[@1MarkMoss]

Welcome aboard! Thanks for being here!

[@stratcaptain66]

According to Mark, everything is just fine, real estate is not overpriced when you consider the bone crushing inflation that has melted your purchasing power away like an ice cube. So all is right, don’t panic, 3 million dollar matchbox size house are JUST FINE! They are totally worth it.🤣🤣🤣🤦🏻‍♂️

[@ryaniam22]

That's the point and by design. Blackrock is just a wing of the US government taking printed money directly and illegally from the US government to buy all the homes, stocks, and everything else to ensure NO ONE who isn't already an oligarchs can escape the great taking via inflation. Your a Dr making a million a year. Good luck. You'll probably have barely any more than your single family home or if your lucky a 2nd one at the end of this decade. Only people with 100's of millions can escape....as designed by the J-ws

[@vynyluvr]

Add in the entirely over-priced stockmarket which has returned 20+% returns over the past couple of years. The party is over.

[@ajoshmiller]

Great analysis, Mark - QE perfected is not something I had considered. Reloaded and rested - it all makes sense when you explain it.

[@vapecatt]

Some stocks during the great recession took some time to get back to their pre recession levels. The most common thing I saw just doing simple comparisons was that most stocks were peaking in sumer 2007 to early spring 2008. And most wouldn't make a recovery until 2012 where they would not only get above there 2007 levels but also saty above it.

[@edpalmieri8647]

Nasdaq up 16 fold, S&P 500 up 7 fold - massive bubbles never been seen before! Make no mistake about it, at some point something will give!

[@margator1036]

Mark, your points are excellent, because of the stimulus from COVID, and the rapid interest hikes things are different this time. Our country needs a residential real estate price reset. Due to the liquidity situation, the money has to go somewhere, probably the stock market.

[@joeacquavella6548]

I agree! This time it really is different. This time when the fed pivots long rates (which the fed does not control) will rise instead of fall which will take down housing, stocks (esp tech) and BTC!

[@dialecticalmonist3405]

How on earth can it take down real estate when the entire world is going to buy up US real estate to escape their dying fiat currencies? Do you realize the Euro dollar is 10 X's the size of the US dollar?

[@TheEdmal25]

Greetings form sunny-rainy Malaysia! i was just talking about this to my old school friend over an evening swim at my condos with his girls. A lot of unrealistic, fact-less videos flooding youtube saying the wrong things. Or perhaps trying to bait clicks or perhaps selling products etc My take about the situation about the coming rate cuts will bee a BOOM!!

[@arashmba]

Great content again tnx Mark. I like to see a quick wrap up in your videos since the amount of information is a lot and ofc valuable. The wrap up would be a nice addition to your content. 👌

[@Ivan-fo4kx]

Had to rewatch several times to absorb all of the info probably. Abundance of knowledge in your videos. Thank you

[@1MarkMoss]

Great to hear! Thanks for watching, I love to deep dive in the research

[@steveragan2256]

I am curious how you factor in the debt load for both the nation and the consumers. Your presentation is persuasive, but I saw no data on debt. Thus, while it is true that the money men have trillions or hundreds of billions (e.g., Buffett) in cash the consumer is over one trillion in debt and the national is 35 trillion-plus in debt. That’s got to impact purchasing even if the market relies on the money men. And THAT could rank the economy when tens of millions do Americans stop using their credit cards. Or am I not seeing something?

[@LivingCRISP]

I’ve never been at more odds with Mark Moss than I have with this video.

[@tbbarabara]

We know government figures on unemployment, etc. are lies. We had insane printing. etc. Debt is historical. Do these matter or do we just move forward and invest based on lies?

[@johnhedge9328]

Invest based on the propaganda, because when it does shift bigly and the criminals at charge don't care to intervene all those useless numbers in the world goes up in smoke. The system is and has been a fraudulent charade for 50+ years and we're currently in the banana republic stage, humans.

[@musk3402]

if the world accepts the lies since the truth is too difficult to realize, then maybe we will never see the end result of these lies come to fruition

[@preparedscouter2357]

It seems like it's a setup to take the normies, those not listening, $ and assets, away

[@simsammalinao1823]

Awesome lecture! Mark Moss is factual, logical and reasonable.

[@cryptomon86]

If ppl expect pump. Selll everything

[@charlesdidonato5478]

Mark, all good things! Why do you think Buffett is sitting on nearly $300 billion cash? Do you think he knows something we don’t? I remember when Buffett sold majority of his bank holdings about six months before the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. What’s your opinion?

[@saneb5955]

People forget that Berkshire is an insurance company. As an insurance company they have to hold a lot of cash. With all the wild fires and weather conditions causing damage to homes/vehicles Berkshire needs a lot of cash ready for claims. There is also a high likelihood that corporate tax rates will go up in the future, so it makes sense to take profits while tax rates are low. He also was highly leveraged into apple and even after selling still has a 30% position. Although he has mostly been selling, he has bought into some positions as well. However with the amount of liquidity and cash he manages, his choices of where to deploy the cash is limited. I wouldn’t go by Berkshire to decide your trades. Hold some extra cash, but don’t panic.

[@richyvate]

Inflation gonna skyrocket end of 2025, make quick gains end of 2024 and early 2025 and get the fuk out

[@Will-No-Co]

Hi Mark. Won’t the lower rates and money coming in from the sidelines be inflationary? Is that why the FED says it’s not concerned about inflation? Does this mean the FED expects higher inflation? Shouldn’t inflation be part of the calculus of whether or not monetary policy is tight or loose? Appreciate your way of explaining all this jargon. Thanks

[@bountyonya4673]

You and @MarketMakersOfficial should do a show together. Would be an excellent debate on the direction of the market, post pivot.

[@abam1roy194]

Love your videos Mark.. very colorful..pleasing to the eyes..thanks

[@ruipedrovilarinho5560]

Thank you so much for all I received from seeing your videos. What the relation of all this charts with conflicts (there is always a war somewhere…) ? I just have the fellling , but I will search the data about markets and wars - the felling i have is that there are more conflicts or ´determinante’ conflicts .

[@MrPJFurey]

Love the genuine thorough analysis the empirical data bro!

[@1MarkMoss]

Appreciate it!

[@barrywagoner5191]

Buffett in 25% cash. I'll wait

[@AlbionEconomist]

thats what he wants you to do

[@nerolowell2320]

$270 billions is not 25% cash

[@barrywagoner5191]

​@@nerolowell2320 Look it up!

[@Edscomment]

Closer to 33%😊

[@jems6481]

@@Edscomment oh the magic 33...good one

[@jacobhower1291]

Awesome information and analysis. I would've liked to see more than three data points. 00, 08 and 18.

[@philcdaniel]

Thank you Mark!!! I have been waiting months for You to do video on the rate cuts boom or bust

[@1MarkMoss]

Glad you enjoyed! Thanks for watching!

[@toadpossum6668]

18 months after cut stocks are back up, but price can lose 50% of the S&P500 value inbetween then.

[@markingli169]

Pretty tuff for consumer spending to come down! When prices are at historic highs!😂

[@Paddelnoob1]

Thank you Mark.

[@cindyhayslette306]

Mark, given what you’ve said, is this the time to buy TMF and TLT? Or stay away for now and keep buying regular stocks and ETFs?

[@myutube8x]

Fantastic insight. Beautifully presented.

[@investidorint]

Thank you, this is the best video on the subject that I've watched later

[@1MarkMoss]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@aquaholic7392]

Spot on as always. Great work mark

[@raymondleehawaii]

Excellent presentation. Love your supporting charts. You just turned me into your believer. Thanks

[@1MarkMoss]

I'm so glad you're here! Thanks for watching

[@zackerycoutinho7442]

Looking jacked Mark! Great video as always 😎

[@77sabrina77]

I think you had some good concepts. However, I think there is some that are missing. We have an inverted yield curve, SAHM rule just kick3d in, jobs revised at a historical rate, extreme credit card delinquincies.

[@crimsonbg]

Ok. What are you short? Bonds? Gold usually investere corelated with stocks? Or just cash?

[@DaBuDaSak]

For the 2007 crash you can't say the crash started in 06 just to fit your narrative! It started right before the feds cut in 07, bounced after they cut and then fell off a cliff!

[@bpb5541]

That is exactly what is going to happen this time as well. Folks think a rate cut of .25 or.50 is going to do something, that it's bullish. But this stuff is on a 12 to 18 month lag. I am already crazy short... the higher it goes now the more short I get. Could it be different this time? Of course it could nothing is 100% but I am will to lose all that money because if it does play out I will never have to work again. history is on my side.

[@fartsndarts]

Great videos Mark thanks for the layman explanations :pp learning heaps from ya mate, cheers!

[@ronfesta771]

Me thinketh just., loooove Mark's CSI........analysis!@!?😉 To your success!!!😃

[@1MarkMoss]

Wow, thank you!

[@supergopaul]

Future Bulls are hibernating while the market works off it's indecision. I think that says in a nutshell. Yardeni, Ciovacco Capital, would probably agree too. The roaring 20s to mid 30s is about to hit us like a brick. Patience I've been waiting since 2022. 😊

[@tradernparadise]

Have you reviewed the charts of BTC, GOLD and SPY from TA POV on higher timeframes such as 1M, 2M etc...? No concerns, no alarm bells?

[@miket.8289]

CME Fedwatch for Sep meeting is giving 0.25 not 0.5 pt cut

[@kirkriley164]

Yep! Exactly what I was thinking, good vid, Mark!

[@1MarkMoss]

Glad you enjoyed!

[@petergraves9006]

I have been craving for the answers you gave in this presentation regarding rate cuts. I feel much better about being in crypto thank you Mark for your great content its top notch 👏🏻👌🇺🇸

[@donmertle9099]

Payrolls are down. Trade is down. Personal defaults are up. The investment banks have been touting stocks to retail as they sell off themselves. The stock market doesn’t stay still and it’s at an absurd P/E ratio. It cannot possibly go up. There is no liquidity to buy at higher prices. The big money is waiting for the crash. It’s not a cliff but, a long mudslide.

[@MotivationMindset-M]

Great job Mark, keeping us eyes open😇😇👏

[@1MarkMoss]

Thank you, I try!

[@Jag1lit]

Great video brother! 👍

[@AbhiPadalkar]

Similar view from other macro gurus- there would be money rotation especially from stocks and bonds as well as foreign and emerging mkts as investment. ISM still at 50 .. USD to get weaker

[@beginnerPTSI]

Thanks Mark. This is great.

[@1MarkMoss]

Thanks for watching I'm glad you enjoyed it!

[@PatrickHoyt-ju4kl]

Fed has always had a delayed response to act - until “ they had enough data” to cut rates - always behind the cycle

[@macrolosses]

.25 cut market rallies, .50+ markets hit volatility and then gets saved at the expense of workers.

[@GoodNewsTravelers]

You say inflation is coming down but my bills say something different

[@Lawliet734]

@Good Lower inflation = higher prices. Huh? Inflation, by any positive degree, means prices are going up. It would take deflation for prices to go down, and deflation is not in the cards.

[@GoodNewsTravelers]

@@Lawliet734 thank you for explaining 😃

[@michaelcole8703]

He covered this in a video ages ago on how the CPI calculation is fraudulent as the basket of goods is changing. Great content.

[@mrlion2022]

Something big is going to happen to many billionaires, and ceo have been selling, but I agree their will be a massive upside in the future.

[@RobbStonee]

Some experts think rate cuts could boost certain industries, while others warn it might increase inflation concerns. I'm reviewing my $600K portfolio allocations and I'm curious about strategies to respond to these potential sector impacts.

[@ScottStraw]

Increase exposure to interest rate-sensitive sectors like REITs and utilities, and maintain or slightly increase holdings in growth sectors like technology and consumer discretionary. For tailored advice, consider consulting a financial advisor.

[@UraniumMillings]

Ignore sectors Buy Bitcoin

[@joeokeefejr]

Moss is the BOSS

[@1MarkMoss]

Thanks brother!

[@hardstyle8184]

excellent overview mark... thanx bro

[@1MarkMoss]

My pleasure!

[@lyndalent]

Love mark

[@ryanguilbert3425]

MM is definitely against the grain, and it's entertaining

[@zinouzinou9329]

Big G . Thanks bro ❤

[@CH1-777]

The charts and data used, were in a period of time where the US debt was much much lower. Now at 35 Trillion dollars and adding another Trillion every 90 days. This bubble will eventually pop, and when it does, where do you want your finances to be? Also the new Brics currency which is backed by precious metals, is going to affect all other Fiat currencies when floated later this year. Especially the Petro dollar of the US. Your charts haven't seen this situation before.

[@MrRyan83]

Mark, I'd like to hear your take on Satoshi Nakamoto. How can someone create something so magical, own a huge portion of it and never take any credit and no one knows him. Are you sure it's not CIA Nakamoto. It doesn't follow human nature to take no credit.

[@edawg654]

Thesis: why let people dwell on the decision to implement QE. Just do it instantly, brush over it, and carry on like it’s normal.

[@Meowmeow.age.6]

The market is already a historic 200% x GDP. If asset prices explode - it is basically a reverse market crash - which is a prelude to hyperinflation. Hyperinflation would set in around 2029/2030 - which is the 100 year anniversary of the great depression. So we have a depression coming. That is depressing news. They will do price controls so the normal hedges such as staples will do poorly, which leaves tech stocks (they own the politicians). So basically tech companies and their monopoly will cause a hyperinflation depression.

[@ryaniam22]

So where will u put your money to benefit?

[@haven252]

U don’t think market will correct this September ?

[@joedion4559]

Off topic but what's the screen Mark uses in these presentations?

[@neilblue5554]

Really good content, thankyou

[@MrPJFurey]

I’ve seen your 2.3-24 but honestly it’s been a lot of work. To get up to .15 but I may not have been back I got his as long as you clearly. Perhaps I’m in the right track my real fear exists in the knowledge of selling all my back when the pump comes in 2025 and then I have none and have to rebut higher 🤷‍♂️ the wise person would hodl but the technology utility requires me to use it the way it was meant to be used as money to pay bills driving the cost higher and making its case better

[@miket.8289]

You make great content btw

[@1MarkMoss]

Glad you're enjoying!

[@valueinvestingwitholiver]

Intrest rates down, small-midcap up. :D

[@erikipsen1682]

Everything is great until the government says it isn't!

[@alexcampbell3492]

Fantastic, Mark.

[@1MarkMoss]

Thanks for listening

[@joegrow1273]

Good video.

[@blackswordsman5165]

they "bought room" by squeezing it out of the average american's purchasing power.

[@BellaFintech]

Thank you so much sir.

[@ruthdenham8211]

Great video! I really have a question. For someone with less than $5,000 to invest, how would you recommend we enter the crypto market? I am looking at studying some traders and copying their strategy rather than investing myself and losing money emotionally. What's your take on this approach?

[@tanjaklug1188]

There are actually strategies that could be put in place for colossal gains, but such execution is usually carried out by financial experts

[@veronikauae]

Makes sense .. and in a Mathew McConaughey voice 😅

[@bryangoodson1721]

Review the Fed deflation of currency along with inflation is close to 12% annually. T-Bills 5% return the investor is still under water by 7%.

[@pwatom22]

The volume of cash on the sideline is the key data point of your thesis. However, the reason cash is on the sideline is due to the extended valuation of the market. It's all waiting for a crash. I think what we will see is buy the dip cycles capped by a valuation ceiling. Yes, the ceiling may be pushed up, but, without real earnings improvement it's not going up much. The governments cannot let real estate continue to grow and perpetuate the housing crisis. I think we will see tax changes to skew housing to people's primary residence and rent caps. I think real estate investing will be discouraged, and rightly so. We are in desperate need of thoughtful, responsible govt not make the wealth divide worse.

[@MohsenAmjadian-r1x]

u r the best presenter

[@jozsab1]

My first "crash" landing. As noob, the difference I see today is that we are heading into a deflation ( people have less purchasing money due to greater inflation to less salary increase ). There are ways to get out of a deflation, that is called inflation. But the question remains, will salaries keep up with inflation ? Helicopter money ? I think most analysts just don't see that unemployment is so low because people are desperate, and if there is a bankruptcy chain in the Russel 2000 ( 50% of companies ), that will hit 2x the unemployment. So we need helicopter money for both normal people and small companies. Oh, and we also need some sort of technological boom ( AI is overrated at this stage )

[@TGE66]

great stuff Mark

[@1MarkMoss]

Thanks for watching!

[@litupav]

I see how you’re not talking about the stimulus impact making the inflation increase market value after the 2020 cut. Sneaky

[@SofKac]

ty for sharing this video and for your insights

[@1MarkMoss]

No problem glad you enjoyed it!

[@JDHart]

Good luck. 🍀

[@andrewguarino]

Solid video!! Thank you 🙏

[@1MarkMoss]

My pleasure!

[@AxlRodd]

Mark what about commodities and uranium miners. I remember you made a video about how bullish you were on uranium

[@DaveGiusti-g4j]

Does Buffett have it wrong? He’s sitting on a butt load of cash! He must sense blood.