DUAL MOMENTUM | Momentum Trading Strategy by Gary Antonacci

[@James-100]

What I really like about your book overviews is that you break down the strategies graphically and don’t just tell us that the book is good or bad. Excellent work and much appreciated.

[@fatcapital88]

I've been watching your videos non-stop... it's hands down the best content on these complex topics... thank you!

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks, that means a lot🙏

[@n0s41nt8]

I don't comment often, but this video and the wisdom in it was brilliant. Thank you.

[@FinancialWisdom]

I appreciate that!🙏

[@alexanderinsubordinate1861]

The strategy at 2:42

[@obcane3072]

His system is best for an employer sponsored retirement plan that limits investments to mutual funds. I like your application. I prefer to use a 3 month look back as it provides lower drawdowns but at the cost of more trading.

[@adriancristea7924]

Thank you! Great video! I try to understand why people do not discuss more about this strategy! Mr Antonacci does not seem to be very popular compared to other „financial gurus”.

[@FinancialWisdom]

I dont think people accept the simplicty, assuming more complex systems will outperform

[@simzou4373]

Good job~ 재테크 책!!! 듀얼 모멘텀

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks!

[@MarcusFred-wn3iv]

Great video. We all strive for financial independence and better life. It’s not difficult in achieving this through the right investment, living frugally, and budgeting. I’m glad I learned early in life to work hard for financial freedom

[@MarcusFred-wn3iv]

@@MarcelPhilips sincerely, I’m truly inspired by your words. I’m very interested in investing and I have got a good sum of money which I’m ready to put in with the right information. My biggest fear is losing my money on the wrong investment. For this reason, I’m willing to listen to your suggestions and ideas on how to invest wisely.

[@MarcelPhilips]

@@MarcusFred-wn3iv As an OAP with a lot of experience, I firmly believe that the success of any investment depends on having the right information, regardless of what others say, do whatever you set your mind to. Warren Buffer always says "be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy". This is certainly the trick to succeeding even when others fail. I made $100,000 working with MARTHA ALONSO HARA a licensed financial adviser . It’s been a promising experience so far with her.

[@MarcusFred-wn3iv]

@@MarcelPhilips Please, how do I connect with your financial planner?

[@MarcelPhilips]

@@MarcusFred-wn3iv quickly do a web check where you can connect with her, and do your research with her full name mentioned

[@MarcusFred-wn3iv]

@@MarcelPhilips Thank you, Going through her profile on her webpage out of curiosity, and surprisingly she seems proficient. I appreciate this.

[@jamesstephen1516]

Brother namaste, Thoughtful strategy.. minimum loss, maximum returns.. thank you

[@FinancialWisdom]

Always welcome

[@FinancialWisdom]

My Brokerage Account (Interactive Brokers) - bit.ly/3UGvn1U My Breakout Scanner - bit.ly/3ea6sl8 My Forum - www.financialwisdomTV.com/forum My Strategy Blueprint - www.financialwisdomtv.com/plans-pricing Edgewonk Trade Analysis Software - bit.ly/3xS6S7s Stock Screener & Backtesting - bit.ly/3oO1exN (20% Off Code = FWSDM) Stockopedia - bit.ly/2YIcAIn (25% Discount)

[@dividenddepot]

Hello, love the content, do you factor in HV historical volatility, if so how do you measure?

[@FinancialWisdom]

I use NATR

[@zohahs5276]

what equitied you have invested in World/US ? and what were your results do you have 10 year CAGR or 5yr CAGR? how long you been following this strategy?

[@FinancialWisdom]

My personal breakout strategy or Dual Momentum?

[@zohahs5276]

@@FinancialWisdom Dual momentum also what index you track from dual momentum for world index Do you check SPY for us index ? Thanks for making this amazing videos

[@FinancialWisdom]

@@zohahs5276 MSCI ACWI ETF for World and SPY for US index

[@zohahs5276]

@@FinancialWisdom great how long you been following the strategy and what are your results please do a detail video on that in future many thanks i will also try to read the book.

[@ShadabAsg]

please make video on crypto currency

[@cagrikanik2403]

This book is staying in a corner and people do not make attention. For me, this is a base of all trading systems

[@goncaloveiga]

Quick question: when Antonacci says the conjecture indicates we should invest in S&P 500, does he mean one should only invest in those 500 companies? I’d be interested to know if his theory is expandable to Russel 2000 or 3000 equities. Thanks!

[@FinancialWisdom]

Good question, I guess his study did not cover all the indexes although the theory should hold true I would think...

[@yli97]

@@FinancialWisdom Antonacci says he prefers to focus on very large indexes like the S&P 500 or the World Equities because the trend is more solid and stable and there is not as much research about time series momentum in the other indexes as there is in these two.

[@sodds3599]

Is there a site where you can track monthly the 12 month sliding rates of return of US equity, World Equity (excuding US) and US bonds?

[@AdamHarrisTrader]

Excellent- hadn't heard of this. Very impressed.

[@AdamHarrisTrader]

I know of rotating with bonds, but not heard of this book- thanks for doing it!

[@FinancialWisdom]

No problem, yes, simple but effective...

[@aeksinsang932]

We buy mtum (momentum etf) takes out the guesswork and has computer algorithms figuring the momentum rates and key stocks

[@suxxa]

this strategy takes out the guesswork, so i dont know what you mean.

[@aeksinsang932]

@@suxxa uou have to buy double, I buy one: MTUM- no need for a counterbalance headache

[@km6206]

that fund does not shift to bonds or international equity. So, it's a different strategy completely.

[@based_yeoman9138]

Helpful, thanks!

[@FinancialWisdom]

You're welcome!

[@pamboyce5128]

By using a comparison chart in TC2000, I see over 12 months, the world index you mention (MSCI) greatly outperforms a Vanguard World Stock Index ETF with the symbol VT. Thus, I am seeking an ETF that better matches the MSCI. Any suggestions would be appreciated. In closing, I believe you are a great teacher, making concepts clear and understandable in a brief time. Please keep up your work, a service to so many!

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks Pam 🙏 I'll take a look

[@p.m.8316]

agreed great video

[@suthan2003]

Also a question. You said the principle is to look for 12 months return but the review happens every month for the rolling 12 months is that correct.....as an example: 1) If I have to rebalance my portfolio on 1st of Sep '21 then I have to look at Sep '20 to Aug '21 returns and so on for every month Is this correct understanding of the concept

[@FinancialWisdom]

yes that is my understanding👍

[@jazzyfriends4197]

how is using nifty 50 instead of world index ...

[@mrhoplite2931]

Good video! very well explained - even i understood it and that is saying something..

[@FinancialWisdom]

Glad to hear that!

[@axsup7g140]

Method at 4:10 is not right look at the book.

[@jameskaran3121]

Excellent presentation, succinctly put. I have been applying a similar strategy with US ETFs for sector rotation using relative strengths and trend analysis. Reasonably good results but must improve on it. Thanks!

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks for sharing!

[@suxxa]

Dual Momentum Sector Rotation (DMSR) is also presentet in his book. In how many sectors did you invest at the same time? Do you use a Trendfilter for this strategy?

[@whatchitnow]

A nice strategy but 12 months seems like a very long time, maybe a 6 month look-back window would be better? Also, why not to trade individual stocks using this strategy?

[@FinancialWisdom]

He thoroughly tested it.. in terms of individual stocks, there is still a risk element which is removed through total diversification of an index.

[@whatchitnow]

​@@FinancialWisdom not a big risk if trading mid and large cap stocks only.

[@km6206]

a shorter lookback period will increase the probability of whipsaws. You will be in and out of the market many more times. Many of those trades will be false alarms. So, whipsaws reduce returns of absolute momentum strategies. And, it is for this same reason that individual stocks are more difficult to use with absolute momentum since their volatility is much higher than an index. Not to mention that if you have a small number of individual stocks, then you have large amount of idiosyncratic risk particular to each individual stock unlike an index.

[@pusheenomics]

All of your videos are excellent! Thanks a lot. What do you think about Larry Tentarelli's approach?

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks Adrian, I'll try to take a look👍

[@RetireCertain]

Glad to see someone else appreciates Gary! Love your videos, thanks.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thank you Retire Certain. Good luck with yours...🙏

[@Bigh141]

Great video as always, and I have viewed it twice and done some research on Gary A. It has many positive features not least Momentum and reduction of risk of loss, so I am looking to adopt it for my investments. I am in the UK where is the best place to find the 12 month data on the performance of S&P 500 Equities v T-Bonds and World Index excl USA? Should I use the data from Vanguard ETFs for instance? Or is there an easy place to do this comparison online?

[@FinancialWisdom]

HI Bigh, Not sure of an easy comparison but it would not take long looking at the S&P etc.

[@ardyzara1540]

I don’t understand how this strategy avoided the stock crashes mentioned in the video

[@FinancialWisdom]

Hi Ardy, by moving from equities into bonds.

[@charlieperro3746]

@@FinancialWisdom How do you avoid a crash by switching to bonds if the signal is the crash itself? It is hard to understand. Thanks for your videos!

[@aeksinsang932]

By staying the course and not selling but soldiering the winter awaiting the summer so to speak

[@yli97]

@@charlieperro3746 The crash signal comes from the equities. Then, by switching to bonds, you get a profit, since bonds usually rise during a market crash.

[@knupaw]

@@yli97 but if the market drops 20% in 2 days, you sell with 20% loss, on the lowest point? How is this working then?

[@davidbarana7134]

Hi sir 👋 thank you so much for giving us free quality videos , Very detailed and informative explanation 👍

[@FinancialWisdom]

It's my pleasure David, thanks👍

[@aldolabuonora]

@@FinancialWisdom a very interesting strategy, I am going to incorporate it, the only defect that I see is that world equities are highly correlated with PSY 500, more and more as the word if more globalized , therefore I wonder if there is an alternative to international equities that is less linked with USA market Thanks

[@Rhino11111111]

From the U.K. and there isn’t an etf for global ex us. The only etf is VEU which isn’t available to European investors

[@luisoncpp]

Be careful with this strategy, it has underperformed the S&P 500 during the last decade. Certainly avoiding large drawdowns during bear market is arguably more important than not performing as well during the bull market. However, the point here is that the strategy has only worked in backtesting and not in future returns (it's less than 10 years old). Telling what would have worked in the past is very different than predicting what's going to work in the future. Also, this model used treasury bonds returns as a metric, but now the low yields may have altered permanently the behavior of this metric and the effectiveness of the overall strategy. I don't claim that this strategy is now worthless, I'm just pointing out that it's too soon to claim victory.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks for your input Luis, you make some very good points...

[@yli97]

Trend Following should not be intended to increase returns but to reduce risk. In fact, many papers show that it has a higher sharpe ratio than buy and hold, but with lower returns and halved volatility.

[@km6206]

@@yli97 you can use a little leverage (especially in the bond area) to increase the returns while keeping a similar sharpe ratio (along the lines of a risk parity idea).

[@yli97]

@@km6206 you mean using buy and hold (no trend following or market timing) but leveraging a bit?

[@km6206]

@@yli97 no, using the trend following with leverage. Basically, trending following over a long period will be on average less than 100% equities. That's because when equity tanks triggering you to sell the equity index, you be in bonds at that time. Most of the time, you will be in equities, but sometimes you won't. If a big equity downturn (e.g. the 2008 Financial Crisis, Japan's Lost Decade, the Great Depression, etc.) never happens in the future, then the times that you sell equities & go into bonds will likely cause you to underperform a 100% equity buy&hold strategy. Trend following will only outperform 100% equity buy&hold if the trend following strategy prevents you from experiencing a severe downturn. Those haven't happened super often in the past, so if the future is similar to the past (not necessarily a given though, right?), then most of the time you will likely underperforming 100% equity due to the 'whipsaws.' If you want to increase your chances of matching the 100% equity all-the-time portfolio, then you could leverage your trend following strategy portfolio in order to compensate for the times that you out of the equity market. Then, your portfolio's proportional equity-to-bond ratio will on average be a closer match to the 100% equity portfolio over a long period as well as be closer to the 100% equity portfolio's volatility. If you only leverage the equity portion, then that means most of the time you will own more than 100% equities. Furthermore, if you think about the risk parity portfolio ideas, then you can also leverage the bond portion as well when the trend following signal tells you to sell equities for bonds. Then, it becomes possible that your returns during the equity downturns could be greater since your bond position is also leveraged. Using leverage is kind of the idea related to the Sharpe ratio in first place, right? If you have a 60% equity-40% bond portfolio has a greater Sharpe ratio than 100% equity but also a lower expected return than the 100% equity, you can leverage the 60/40 portfolio up to so that the 60/40's expected return matches the 100% equity's expected return. Similarly, you can do something the same to the trend following portfolio. A trend following strategy consisting of just 2 types of markets (bond vs equity) is essentially a type of equity/bond portfolio with the difference being that traditional 60/40 portfolio has a static ratio of equity-to-bond (assuming frequent rebalancing) and the trend following portfolio is dynamically changing dependent on the trend signal. Hope that makes sense.

[@donniereidjr]

I love this concept.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Simple but effective.👍

[@donniereidjr]

@@FinancialWisdom that’s the cool thing I’m learning about as a green investor new to the game. It seems that no one likes simplicity. They think that only analysis that involves predictions via rocket science analytics is more trustworthy. I’m learning that nothing is further from the truth. Simplified trading is easy for managing risk. I can’t wait to read the book. One question mate. Does it share the details regarding how to confirm which equities are leading monthly? Cheers!

[@FinancialWisdom]

@@donniereidjr Absolutely, it real does not need to be complicated, but the financial industry insists you to believe it is, mainly due to the mutual funds/hedge funds that advise on expensive management fees etc, not to mention the technical instruments which have flooded the market the last decade.

[@drjems]

Excellent

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks Jemin

[@mryes8184]

Getting in love with your vids man!

[@FinancialWisdom]

Good to hear !!🙏👍

[@dleifelgni]

Well I will also say this here... Talking from my own experience as a cryptocurrency trader mostly BITCOIN TRADING as the leading asset, so far I have come to realize that the crypto market is of two sides. As some people will hold and wait for bitcoin to skyrocket so they can sell-off, while others will wait for bitcoin to fall so they can buy at a cheaper rate. However, I see all this worries baseless if they can't yield good profits, my advice still stands on involving in day trading by finding an accurate strategy/daily signals in other to accumulate and grow a very strong portfolio. For me, it's been so successful for over 7 months because I was smart enough to find working daily signals which are being provided by a pro trader known as Mr. James Carlson during the first 2 weeks I accumulated and grew my portfolio from 2btc to a total of 8.4btc which you will agree is a very good profit, James can be reach on Telegram (@ JamesC51 ) and whatsapp [phone] for more profitable system.

[@bharath8721]

Simple concept but not easy .... Analysing bonds are tricky because they have less liquidity than stocks. What happens if the bond tenure period is 5 years and when the equity starts outperform the bonds...we can't easily get out of the bond market because of illiquidity!.....Nice video!

[@FinancialWisdom]

I Agree Bharath, often why I only use for timing estimations and go cash instead of bonds..👍

[@km6206]

just use a bond fund

[@phanquochung3924]

Endlessly appreciate content like this. Thank you guy

[@FinancialWisdom]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@dleifelgni]

Well I will also say this here... Talking from my own experience as a cryptocurrency trader mostly BITCOIN TRADING as the leading asset, so far I have come to realize that the crypto market is of two sides. As some people will hold and wait for bitcoin to skyrocket so they can sell-off, while others will wait for bitcoin to fall so they can buy at a cheaper rate. However, I see all this worries baseless if they can't yield good profits, my advice still stands on involving in day trading by finding an accurate strategy/daily signals in other to accumulate and grow a very strong portfolio. For me, it's been so successful for over 7 months because I was smart enough to find working daily signals which are being provided by a pro trader known as Mr. James Carlson during the first 2 weeks I accumulated and grew my portfolio from 2btc to a total of 8.4btc which you will agree is a very good profit, James can be reach on Telegram (@ JamesC51 ) and whatsapp [phone] for more profitable system.

[@zaidone9229]

awesome summary, got me interested in the book also going to read the whole thing.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Great, thanks DM🙏

[@Wereallrelated]

This guy is just absolutely amazing ,the way he structure's his videos ,the way he clearly talks & explains things - subscribed to a few financial channels on youtube but genuinely this guy is up there for me as the best . Love from london ❤

[@FinancialWisdom]

Wow thanks D Ali, really means a lot🙏

[@ninaroxas4670]

very good, you summarised the book for me

[@williamkz]

Thanks Gareth. Another good one.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks William👍

[@fatcapital88]

Here are my thoughts on his process... 1) I wonder how much his returns are skewed by an epic 40-year bull market in bonds (with falling rates), if he over-earned because of the secular change there, and similarly 2) the extent that the results were impacted by very long bull runs... if we have more of a sideways market and/or don't have a 40 year bond bubble this strategy could end up churning a lot more. I'm just thinking out loud.

[@FinancialWisdom]

You could well be right....

[@QUISE5380]

Good video not a fan of the strategy but at least you saved me a read thanks

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks, Glad it helped...

[@aeksinsang932]

It slays the s&p. How can you not be fan?

[@puro52]

this guy stockpicks 90% of his awake time

[@david-lf9vn]

Another great video. To invest in uk stocks can you use the same principle but use the ftse all share instead of the S&P 500?

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks David, without looking at the back tested data i guess the same principle would apply yes..

[@BobF510]

I'm fascinated by the depth of this content. A book with similar substance opened new avenues of thought for me. "Mastering Money Mindfulness" by Benjamin Hawk

[@theinvestmentdoctor8178]

Excellent video. That book was on my to-read list. Thanks for reviewing it. It's totally against the contrarian strategy which I prefer. apprecite your effort in making the video🙂

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks as always TID. Good luck.....

[@karthikr7894]

Excellent video.. Thanks for sharing the knowledge.

[@FinancialWisdom]

My pleasure!

[@wongrichx]

very good, you summarised the book for me

[@FinancialWisdom]

Great, thanks Rick

[@ReizarfEgroeg]

*Jack Bogle wants to know your location*

[@umutalper9822]

Thanks a lot, great.

[@FinancialWisdom]

You are welcome!

[@kirklenentine]

This is so good..

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thanks Kirk👍

[@sund5]

When trying to explain a concept which is a combination of 2 other concepts, hence the name: "Dual". I find it supoptimal that the 2 oncepts: Absolute momentum and Relative momentum is not explanined in the video. A suggestion from my side: less focus on your own investment, more focus on what should be explained. Other than that, fine video. :-)

[@mergodon]

Hm this rule is hard to sell to simple. the S&P return was around 10% in the last 20 years and around 17% in the last 10. Now you are saying simple you can beat the market, and half the drawdown... The other funny thing is that, during the market crash, you are in "cash" so you have an opportunity to buy cheap asset classes like a house. Brilliant

[@jazzyfriends4197]

this is just kinda broken now due to bonds corelation with equities this year ngl

[@FinancialWisdom]

Yes a big curve ball introduced....

[@YOLO-IN]

tax??????

[@ikbenhet1989]

Wait what? That's an 17% return annually? That's not much this strategy sucks

[@suthan2003]

Will you ever show your face :).....it is always better to put a face to the name

[@FinancialWisdom]

LOL i'm the Banksy of the trading world.

[@nagababukokkiligadda2244]

Sir.english sentence give under video.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Ill look into..

[@stevesutton772]

This book SUCKS

[@vg-99]

Excellent

[@FinancialWisdom]

Thank you so much 😀

[@ninaroxas4670]

Excellent video.. Thanks for sharing the knowledge.

[@FinancialWisdom]

Glad it was helpful!