How to Overbet and PUNISH Opponents

In this video we breakdown the primary factors that drive overbets and create a beginner's heuristic for overbetting the turn.
TOOLS USED:
DriveHud2: drivehud.com
GTOx: gtox.io
CONCEPTS USED:
Equity, EV, EV Regret: • Equity, EV and EV Regr...
Bucketing: • Simplifying GTO using ...
Range Advantage: • Range Advantage Explai...

[@HutchinHD]

These analyses are really top notch. I don't hear anyone else discussing topics like optimizing yield on gto study time through an actually algorithmic approach to solver use. Congrats and keep going.

[@xXALAZz]

Bro i watched your old analyse content as well. I just wanna say amazing what a step in editing you have made👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽 THE CONTENT WAS ALWAYS GOLD please keep going and thank you 🌹

[@omarfromthewire603]

Bro you are INCREDIBLE. I appreciate your content so much !! So very informative + entertaining !!! You're very good at making these videos . They're in fact SO GOOD, I only wish my friends see them, and no one else lol

[@omarfromthewire603]

I have a question tho, if you'd be so kind to answer ? So I understand the offense , but what does this all look like to THEM ? (The defense) . When we put the shoe on the other foot, how are they supposed to defend against this ? Is it basically them saying "Ok I saw him do this 3 times now with no showdown !! I'm going to take a stand !!" Or ... ? Like what are they actually stacking off with , for the times we DO get paid on our value hands ?

[@AT-bw4cm]

@@omarfromthewire603 From a live game perspective, it looks like a maniac and will put people on monkey tilt. You'd be surprised how thin people will call. As noted, you will have big up and down swings playing like this so you need a good bankroll.

[@jamesstaggs4160]

I've found "trapping" or betting less than I really want to with extremely strong hands doesn't tend to work out very well. If a player is on a draw that will crack my hand they seem to fall into two categories. One will fold to anything but a min bet and the other will call with anything except an all in, and even then they often call. Most of the time player two will probably miss their draw by calling down or even semi-bluff, so I might as well get them to commit as many chips as I can because the one time they hit their draw and crack my hand will be more than offset by the five times they miss that draw. Medium hands I still have beat but they can improve upon play out mostly the same way. This also opens you up to either do alot of bluffing or to get called by inferior hands, depending on how many hands you've been involved with, how many showdowns you win and of course what types of players are at the table. If you can keep raking pots with no showdown you'll eventually semi-tilt at least one player who will hero call you just to "keep you honest".

[@MarkusMuller-ks4pp]

I had about 15 bb/100 after rake at the micros, my showdown winnings were huge and my red line was way south. Basically I played like a nit in micros while bluff catching only in the very best spots (vs the right player and/or vs a line which doesn't make sense with any value hand (for that specific player)) (in micros I wouldn't bluff catch the best GTO bluff catch hands, the exact line (+ timing) and the player are way more important, I rarely bluff catched but when I did I was correct A TON). Only raise the nuts + AK pre (ofc depending on the situation don't even raise AKo or get tricky with AA, KK vs huge fish, on specific tables might want to 3 bet more normal), overfold to 3bets. And of course get very tricky vs the huge -35bb/100 fish :) and also get tricky against the few players who recognize that you are playing like a nit :)

[@weedbuilding5119]

I'm going pro this year and your content helped me so much. Thank you for everything.

[@bennyblanco675]

Good luck

[@James_the_Builder]

I see you comment from 8 months ago. How's it going?

[@spyros07]

​@@James_the_BuilderSurely he busted his bankroll by now...

[@JKOnFire1]

GREAT CONTENT as always! Small ADD to the question why we find the Overbet in that A42ss 9o Spot: we (as the BB defender) not only have more nuts, because of the COs check back on the flop, but also a natural unique nut advantage already by the flop (53s, 42s). The Check Back Ranges can vary, those combos are pure NA though.

[@Keanesqueeze]

This is a phenomenal video, thank you for breaking down GTO concepts for plebes like me to understand

[@raoeoiku7549]

Great content as usual. You focused mostly on the nuttish portion of the range in this, especially when it came to following through on the river. Having a plan for what portion and types of the weakest hands should be bluffed off on the river seems crucial as well.

[@FindingEquilibrium]

Bluffs will generally be the weakest hands with best card removal characteristics. It's hard to create generalizations about what those hands will look like since it will be wholly dependent on what your range looks like.

[@raoeoiku7549]

@@FindingEquilibrium Won't you want a heuristic for Ariel so she has a plan for when to bluff when she gets to the river and misses in these situations? She'll need to put the bluffs into different sizing categories if she's got multiple river sizings, as well as checking some of them. Seems like it could get complicated fairly quickly for a narrow part of her range.

[@AT-bw4cm]

@@raoeoiku7549 I was wondering the same thing. Especially with missed flush draws where an opponent is more likely to defend against a draw and you 1.5x pot bet the turn and get called. I guess you would be bluffing with a hand like a pair and flush draw on the flop that blocks a set and maybe a flush draw that blocks a straight by the river and give up on others. You would also need to have bluffs where you rep a flush so they can't just fold everytime when a flush comes, knowing you have it.

[@FindingEquilibrium]

@@raoeoiku7549 I don't want to overcomplicate things at this point, so on the river, her heuristic is just to visualize her range and bet with her "weakest hands", with her sizings mirroring what she would bet with value. We haven't introduced card removal yet, which obviously is important from a GTO perspective, but her weakest hands will also tend to be the hands with the best unblockers.

[@ignaciopiedra1598]

A well balanced range on every spot is the holly grial of poker. What hands should you bluff with? Well, thats what separate great players from the rest.

[@camilotm]

As always,nice video! I wanted to discuss about something: Solver makes that movement (overbetting) assuming that your range is capped enough,(for example,assuming that villain is check-raising double pairs and sets in at least high frecuency,thus weakening his check-calling range on the flop)obviously if that's not the case,then hero is less incentivized to overbet. For what most coaches recommend and also because solver does it,it seems that the optimal play with those double pairs and sets from the villain side will be to always check-raise and take the initiative(following this idea of getting the most out of those nutted hands).It implies that when villain check-calls he will be always heavily capped and can be easily abused by the ip player. I have always been a bit worried about that issue and usually check-call my nutted hands instead of check-raising them,thus protecting my range against further agression(thinking in terms of mdf by the time I reach the river),and also in some occassions forcing villain to autovaluebet himself.On the contrary I believe that the more we assign different playing structures to different parts of my range,the more it seems to be capped in its different formed groups.So,the solver (as the villain playing optimal) will be almost always forced to bluffcatch the river with a marginal hand in that line right? Is there any alternative way to play with low ev regret?

[@FindingEquilibrium]

There are many different ways to approach this spot and the optimal line will be dependent on your player pool, but a balanced strategy usually will check-raise most, but not all, strong hands versus a small cbet. This keeps some strong hands in your range for both the passive and aggressive lines. At lower stakes especially, in my opinion, the default should be to trend towards taking the more aggressive line and trying to stack your opponent since this is where most of the money is made. You could slowplay only certain hands, such as top set since its likely heavily blocking your opponent's continuing range, or when the board is very dry. The more aggressive approach will leave you more capped when you just call, which isn't fun, but the reality is that your range will sometimes be capped -it's unavoidable. You can deter excessive aggressiveness by learning to bluffcatch well.

[@camilotm]

@@FindingEquilibrium Thanks so much for the answer,I gues I have to internalize in my mind this fact : "the reality is that your range will sometimes be capped -it's unavoidable".

[@ignaciopiedra1598]

@@FindingEquilibrium" your range will sometimes be capped" 👍 very nice. Live with that. Check/fold is 0 EV. But better than - EV in some spots.

[@AlbinoMutant]

I think the reason for betting larger with nut advantage might be even simpler than you explain. When we have nut advantage a larger percentage of our range is made up of the strongest hands. We want to capitalize on this by bluffing more than we would if we had the same percentage of strong hands as our opponent. To do this and still keep villain indifferent to calling or folding, standard sizing math says we need to use a larger size, then we can add in more bluffs.

[@eduardoputzke431]

Always amazed by your content man! Keep up the good work, cheers from Brazil!

[@flawlessmsc]

By far the best poker content on KZbin, no cap

[@RyanDepauloDegenerateGambler]

I am sorry I wasnt subscribed already but misfits cover got me I have watched many of your videos and should have been a while ago

[@FindingEquilibrium]

Thanks, I appreciate it!

[@Chucktage]

If we always bomb big 150% bets, don't we isolate to their nutted hands when we get called and potentially miss value in situations where we're actually ahead?

[@alexl2512]

What should we overbet bluff on the river? The worst bricked draws?

[@DAGrau]

Talking today with other NL25/50 friend, he said i'm too agressive, watching this clip, fuck i need to get more of this shit

[@scottoshea9440]

Nice intro! I like hearing a chick sing that Misfits song.

[@jfleming4805]

Thank you for this, very well done.

[@GoPokerPro]

Winning at nl5k. Still wathing this for fun :D

[@SparkySubie]

Just curious if you have Ariel's graph after she incorporated overbets?

[@TMCorreia]

Hey :) Ty or your content . WHy driver HUd 2 and not HM3 or Hand2note, or even Pt4?

[@susymay7831]

I really like these videos that focus on your girlfriend's play 😊!!!

[@lieuwestraatman3732]

Damn, I love these videos

[@keniffkeniff]

But how do you continue on rivers?

[@tomcads1604]

Great musical choice as always. I know the original by The Misfits, but who's this version by?

[@FindingEquilibrium]

Queens of Dogtown kzbin.info/www/bejne/eXvZgqiKi8uFq8k

[@tomcads1604]

@@FindingEquilibrium thanks 👌

[@Podobed]

People are over over betting for value and under over betting their bluffs and its super transparent at micro but especially low stakes. I also think if Doyle Brunson was starting out following solver advice he would be broke in a year.

[@greek100]

Thank you very much sr.

[@timgoble7928]

Overbets and punk rock. It really doesn't get any better

[@jnapp1215]

Excellent video thks

[@Stefanburakov]

Great content

[@smithjohn3080]

"The solver is also a greedy bastard" 🤣😆😎

[@rgore55]

Thanks!

[@patriciofalotico1940]

this is gold, I NEED TO KNOW WICH STAKES DO YOU PLAY AND WICH IS YOUR WINRATEEEE ( yes im screaming )

[@thebrokebuttryinghardguy1611]

be careful, the FBI is watching too and exploiting your strategy --> see end of URL 😁 Thanks for the good content, really interesting🤗

[@lordtraxx4217]

It’s also a case of her under bluffing in spots

[@MaydayAggro]

"The solver is also a greedy bastard."

[@tygs6984]

I like Ariel and watch her on twitch.. No way is she at this level in poker yet!

[@elachhabzakaria4286]

amazing

[@mig7290]

Maybe I'm mentally slow but I take this in better at X.75.

[@johnd5619]

Legit!

[@alinarodriques3817]

Thanks for this amazing video!! Easy video ranking = P R O M O S M!

[@Gos1234567]

Pluribus is the Dahmer of poker bots

[@kylec.5476]

Again I really enjoy your content, but please leave RACE and GENDER out of your gameplan checklists... unless you're going to make others with similar tongue-and-cheek, derogatory remarks towards all groups, which I don't think you'd ever be willing to do. For example, you could re-title the bullet points at 3:30 from "Intro To Overbets" to "Intro to Overbets for timid Asian Men" or even leave out the word timid and leave it to the reader's imagination.

[@kylec.5476]

I like your content, but you can't claim to be all scientific and stuff and then use an expression like "almost infinite number." That's absurd.