Grading My 2023 Breakout Picks!

[@hbk4ever2]

Happy Bailey day to all who celebrate

[@kkikis7728]

I edge to Baileys videos

[@petekowalczuk4795]

Everyone celebrates Bailey day

[@wrecker132]

Tork only had 4 homers by June 7th. He finished with 31

[@voncornhole]

The Tork vs Arraez discourse at that time is so fucking spicy in hindsight

[@zacharyliles8657]

He's hitting 50 next year

[@dripmorgan8650]

Him

[@richardjones9513]

God I hope he keeps his momentum at the start of the year. Could easily be 1000 ops hitter

[@617evan6]

Mid

[@oliverseed6257]

Crazy that now Pfaddt and lynn are facing each other in arguably both teams most important game of the season

[@saintbeesechurger2800]

Not arguable at all but yes.

[@oliverseed6257]

@@saintbeesechurger2800 maybe not for the d backs but most definitely for the dodgers

[@snipergangdrob5940]

Lance Lynn let up FOUR homers in an inning, and one bro let up a homer it got reversed then next pitch mf hit a 420 foot no doubter so it wouldnt be reversed.

[@kaplezedrummer24ify]

And Pfaadt absolutely out dueled the shit out of Lynn

[@broncos435]

@@kaplezedrummer24ify i think both players have to pitch well for it to be considered a duel 💀

[@joekerUli]

Watching torkelson grow into torkdaddy this season was fun as a tigers fan.

[@broncos435]

*torkelfather, get it right smh. as a sox fan, i fully expect him to turn into torkelgrandfather and destroy us for the next 10 years like miggy did :,(

[@ETYPEJaguar38]

are ya winning, (torkel)son?

[@brandonperez2300]

I love the inclusion of the “cop who definitely almost shot a baseball” clip

[@rockguy2154]

Tony's 100th HR, no less!

[@TheRPGamer7]

I was just about to mention that. Anyone know what game that is?

[@rockguy2154]

​@@TheRPGamer7 Marlins at Orioles July 16, 2023

[@TheRPGamer7]

@@rockguy2154 Thank you! I appreciate it.

[@bentaylor4705]

😂

[@dcsoda1]

Enjoy these types of videos that look back on predictions. Useful analysis on what can go on in a whole season.

[@sabiebright4554]

I love these kinds of videos. I like baseball, I'll watch September and playoff baseball, but unless the player is in the al central and plays against my tigers a lot, I don't know who to look out for If I'm at a sports bar with some buds or a friend wants to watch a different team. So even if every pick is wrong or right, I just wanted to say thank you for allowing me to notice more players, and learn to dig deeper when I see someone come up or make an impact those few times a year. I hope you keep this series up, and I'm excited for next year to do it all again

[@electronthenerd]

i believe in torkelson supremacy

[@JoshTheOther]

I love these retroactive videos! They feel like a blast from the past AND we get to see what worked and didn't work from the earlier analysis. Sounds like it was a helpful exercise for you, and I think it's helpful for me too in the long run--looking at analysis from other people!

[@nickscardigno6006]

Actual Grades: Heaney: -1, Lynn: -2, Pfaadt: -2, Carrasco: -2, Alzolay: +2 Tork: +1, Santander: 0, De la Cruz: -1, Tellez: +1, Ruiz: 0 Gilbert: -1, Urias: +2, Grissom: +2, Gimenez: +2, Kenley: -1 Total: -3

[@JeradLover]

How is Rowdy a +1?

[@norwichstungun1299]

Pfaadt turned it around in the NLCS

[@rayzr1120]

I really enjoyed the OOTP series you did a while back. I was wondering if you plan on doing another any time soon Edit: The Rangers one in specific

[@jacobslater5530]

Love ya Bailey, but 2 thumbs up for Torkelson is a bit dramatic. He’s very much an average hitter due to the leniency on power numbers when factored into such nuanced statistics. We can claim that these stats are useful until we realize they do not substantiate consistent play. Coincided with negligible defensive production, he’s still beyond disappointing.

[@tylermorrison6335]

As a Red Sox fan, I was really anxious about your Kenley pick all year. I'm glad he didn't crack under the new rules or a new town.

[@gowencoates9539]

This is the type of accountability I need in the media

[@mattruss99]

torkdaddy supremacy

[@threearmedonion]

I love seeing Bailey post on his main channel so often

[@tony6666]

I wouldn't give Gimenez two thumbs up for your grade. Maybe one though. He was one of the Guardians hottest hitters in September and I believe he will really bounce back next year. Also he is absolutely a platinum glove contenter

[@davidwindell]

He had 5.5 fWAR, platinum glove defense, and 15HR and 30 SB hitting .250. His BA and OBP regressed but we’re still excellent for a 2B. Saying he had a bad season because his BA fell is incredibly disingenuous.

[@falcon1378]

⁠@@davidwindellI was really expecting a neutral grade for him. He was a huge impact player for the guardians this season. Definitely a miss, but a rare one.

[@skylartimmer4798]

He went from being in mvp conversation to average

[@lucasfranco6345]

@@davidwindell Not just his BA. His OPS dropped 125 points, which is massive. Every single peripheral stat dropped noticeably, including having a 1st percentile avg exit velocity this year. When you look for the progression of a player that young, you don't look for defense, as there's a much more reliable curve to that. You look for progress at the plate, and Gimenez regressed pretty drastically. EDIT: Re: his stats being excellent for a 2B, Gimenez finished the season 12th in OPS out of 17 qualified second basemen (14th in BA, 13th in OBP). So not really, no.

[@dylancampbell8064]

Well Pdaaft just went 5 scoreless innings against the Dodgers so maybe that will get him a thumbs up. Also Sewald sealed the deal.

[@NastyMuckSpread]

I think Bailey should become a Machamp to help him with the grading next year so he can have up to 4 thumbs up or down.

[@skiiworld]

5:07 dying at the Bullpen cop 💀

[@TenaciousAC]

4:56 Credit where it’s due for Santander’s back-to-back 120 OPS+ scores. Stats weren’t spectacular, but a good floor to work from. A reliable hand so to speak and maybe a bargain in 2024 with ARB4 salary due. In 2022, 55 players went 120+, and this season, just 46. I’ve no idea who else went back-to-back, but that’s sneaky good.

[@nathanjm000]

I went with Urias for my preseason Cy Young pick because he was somewhat close for a couple years and hadn't won yet, had the same strategy with Cole and worked though

[@FoolishBailey]

You win some, you lose some. I made a short talking about two teams I thought were underrated: I picked the Diamondbacks and Royals.

[@cjampcj]

3:19 is hilarious 🍋🌳🤴

[@zacharyliles8657]

Tork is going to hit 50 next year Bailey!

[@jacobmorrison5144]

Foolish B talking about Tork will always get my attention

[@jimbopoppin3152]

Thanks for more goon material! Been hankerin for more recently

[@queenautumnween2796]

I think as an edit to the Brandon pfaddt grade, with how well he pitched in the playoffs so far, it could be seen as a neutral or thumb up because he's performing great when they need him the most

[@godusopp2752]

A good pick for pre season breakout hitters is johan rojas, It will be impossible to miss because he has platinum glove potential if he plays enough games and will be positive in war no matter what he does at the plate because of his defense, so its gonna be impossible to miss on him

[@timw4041]

Ruiz is a swing adjustment away from a 120 ops+ . I feel like I watched him barrel so many lineouts the warning track this year. I think he is a guy that would benefit from trying to increase his launch angles. He also doesn’t really swing and miss with a 10.9% k rate

[@XenonSwift]

Coming back to this video after the Postseason, Pfaadt turned it around, looking really dominant. I'd move him up from -1 to Neutral or +1. He was really good down the stretch during their October run.

[@clevelandgrrr]

I really love Bailey's stuff but I think he wasn't hard enough on his downs and too positive on his ups on this year.

[@nickscardigno6006]

100% agree, realistically should've been like -2 or -3 overall

[@jordanfry5138]

Yeah, Heany was a -1 for me and both Tork and Santander should've been one lower. I think he's done that for at least one player each year, but this was the most notable.

[@acebulf]

But at the same time, Rowdy got a two thumbs down despite playing with a broken finger for half the year. As a Brewers fan that feels disappointed by out BigBoi's hitting, I'd only have given a 1 thumbs down. Also 0.00 ERA 9K/27 ELITE PITCHING.

[@JuanCarruyo]

Lol yeah he totally cooked the numbers for this year

[@tomkelley4119]

I love that Bailey is putting so much effort into his main channel.

[@jakobgoodwin9742]

And most importantly, you were right when you hated on Masataka Yoshida. But next year, you watch out

[@GaryMFNoak]

Two thumbs up for Tork? Nah, a 105 OPS+ still isn't great.

[@Itsokay1990]

Not to mention he’s a first overall pick. +2 should be a Corbin Burns like season, not meeting expectations.

[@joshuapatrick682]

Am i the only one who remembers when he ran the season sim on OOTP24 and the rangers made the LCS and mets were a sub 500 club? Spooky…

[@romulus5039]

As a Diamondbacks fan I am very grateful that the Dodgers acquired Lance Lynn. No reason why

[@monkeeee]

Brandon Pfaadt is Lance Lynn’s father

[@TomDeFrank]

@FoolishBailey just curious does dodgers/Dbacks knock down ur Lynn score at all? :)

[@CSDonohue11]

We need a dope Foolish Baseball breakdown

[@Oracio13]

There is no way Torkelson is a +2. A 110 ops+ from a first baseman just isn’t good enough.

[@eshep71]

I was hard for a Biggio rebound. I would call that a semi-success. He had a terrible start and his power never reached my expectations, but at least he reversed his standing among Jays fans. I also predicted that Kikuchi would be closer to Manoah in ERA than Monoah would be to the league leader. I got that right, but not at all how I envisioned.

[@mosslelko3700]

Rowdy struggled with a persistent injury all season, he'll do better next season.

[@michaelnewton5873]

Rowdy did throw a inning of scoreless relief. So that was good

[@WESsential]

How about Pfaadt's start last night?

[@davidwindell]

Gimenez stiłl had 5.5 bWAR with 15 HR, 30SB, and platinum glove łevel defense. Did his BA fałl and his OBP ho down? Sure, but both were stiłł very acceptabłe.

[@MrRedsox113]

Think you could've taken a neutral grade on Jensen, outside of that heater early in the season he was really shaky, add in the injuries and he was below expectations.

[@baileysmith4744]

Gimenez should have been a neutral grade

[@hutsonizer7548]

Love love love the Tork Reform joke.

[@CadChamberlain]

Gonna be absolutely chills when Bailey's players he likes includes Nolan Gorman and Justin Lawrence

[@YankeesWarRoom]

Cole Ragans 2024, calling it right now, he's one of your players.

[@swrv808]

tork and tarik are going to terrorize the league next year

[@CatchCraftInc]

I didn’t believe you about urias and took him with a top fantasy pick. I will believe you from now on bailey

[@mead5185]

i would accept a one thumbs up for torkelson but two seems too high

[@brother-calm]

monitor on da ground

[@vjmendozajr]

gotta boost that pfaadt pick now he has been a playoff ace

[@gageduffin1276]

Here after game 3 of the NLDS, Brandon Pfaadt pitched a gem and Lynn blew the game lmao

[@phanatic599]

I’d throw Keibert back on the 2024 list to farm some thumbs up next year

[@supermarine2493]

I’d say Urias is a solid breakout pick for next season (from prison)

[@Babs4298]

Two thumbs up for Torkelson is generous lol

[@Weaponator18]

Yeah thats my only quibble with this. Torkelson is solid don't get me wrong. But he didn't have a "I definitely proved my haters wrong" type season. Still enjoyed the video though!

[@ninjabanana0885]

It may have been a little much, but if you go back and watch his prediction I’m pretty sure his main thing with Tork was “he will hit way more home runs”, which he got 100% correct, so that could be why he gave the two thumbs up

[@Scheboygan8767]

31 homers isn’t good now ? Especially in comerica

[@thehopper9645]

Two players I was surprised to see do so well this year: Dane Dunning and Adolis Garcia

[@bensutin]

Bailey, total sidebar, but isn't it crazy Juan Soto wasn't an allstar in 2019??!!

[@EthanRKassel]

Bryan De La Cruz was one of the most frustrating fantasy players I’ve ever had. He’d go 1/16 over a four-day stretch, then I’d sit him and he’d go 3/4 with a homer.

[@malloyy6828]

Just started laughing when I saw Urias pop up

[@francescosmith7859]

Good video. I think you're being a little tough on yourself with Kenley and you deserve a neutral grade for that one. He missed time (due to being old), had higher era and fip (even if they weren't giant increases), decreased strikeout rate and higher WHIP. He wasn't terrible but I think he did fall off and think you deserve more credit here. Again, maybe not a thumbs up but more a neutral grade.

[@markh.9822]

Bailey thank you for uploading this video, even if you only did so to take your mind off the Braves postseason

[@sethwoodhouse4797]

Today's Dodgers -Dbacks game is a pitching matchup of Bailey disappointments

[@terasoargaming613]

Patrick Bailey is going to be in the gold glove and mvp talks for the NL next year.

[@bryantsteury8910]

Crazy I remember pooping and watching the original prediction video. How far we’ve come

[@xAOAxCryptic]

What do you mean the dodgers got Lynn to add a “veteran presence” to their rotation? They have Kershaw!

[@cavewomanbrain]

watching this right after pfaadt shut out the dodgers for 4.1 innings and lance lynn got destroyed by the long ball is. well. i hate the dodgers so it's very satisfying!

[@paraminderdhanota9810]

It’s 2024 and I can confidently say, this was Anthony Santander’s TRUE breakout season

[@Spiffffff]

Rowdy Tellez turned into prime Barry Bonds whenever he faced the Red Sox.

[@macthedude9457]

here after Pfaddt diced up the Phillies in NLCS game 7

[@baileysmith4744]

never been happier to have Kyle Bradish in my top 5 pitchers i like, as well as Grayson Rodriguez. i also had Kremer, Irvin, and Sears, but we can move on from that

[@MrCubFan415]

As a Cubs fan, I like Alzolay too :)

[@myplane150]

I agree that Lance Lynn was two thumbs down with the Chi Sox but with the Dodgers, he has been a decent enough pitcher. Maybe a one thumbs down or even a neutral? Tonights game will say a lot...

[@GarandGunner]

After his playoff performances, I think the Dbacks would give two thumbs up for Pfaadt

[@thatnbaguy8940]

when is top 50 react dropping?

[@tohuvavohu]

Flowy cut Bailey!!!! We love you!!!!

[@AidenBF56]

a little too generous this year

[@CadChamberlain]

VERY common Adbert Alzolay success

[@challahguy2418]

Logan Gilbert was good and got a 10 or 11 strikeout game (won me a fantasy game)

[@matt5cr855]

predicting busts is so easy

[@jamessudlow]

If they're busts then the prediction has inherent risk.

[@DoubleKillFilms]

Foolish Bailey = day made. Now we just need a Braves win this evening

[@tiger5869]

1:57 you might've spoken too soon

[@LikeZoinks774]

Dying over "tork reform" 😂

[@eddieplaut2349]

tork reform is so good

[@saulgoodman8501]

Disagree with the heaney take. He was put into the bullpen because their just wasn't a place for him in the rotation not because of performance issues. Look at his 2nd half stats for reference

[@alexw0310]

I can already tell that the Foolish 50 review is gonna be a bit of a trainwreck, but it's not like I would've done any better

[@kaplezedrummer24ify]

Acuna at 18 in the foolish 50 is definitely a yikes and a half looking qt it now.

[@kaplezedrummer24ify]

Lance Lynn just allowed another home run

[@kaplezedrummer24ify]

Gimenez with a 5.8 bWar but only a 3.6 fwar makes me very confused

[@Jackpot.Jimmy.]

Wake up babe, a fresh foolish bailey video dropped

[@RomanStarling70]

I think julio urias will breakout. Breakout of prison

[@slaugmromni6743]

Ehhh, I think you went a bit easy on yourself. Heaney should have been a 👎 - if you pick a starter to breakout and he ends the season pitching out of the bullpen, ain’t nothin’ neutral about that. Torkelson should have been only 👍 - a definite breakout, but he was only a slightly above league average hitter overall; a single thumbs up gives him room to really breakout in ‘24. Finally Grissom should be a neutral since he really didn’t play - I take it your “players I don’t like” includes players whom you think will significantly underperform, not youngsters who haven’t yet earned a spot on the MLB roster. So, your revised score is -3. You’re welcome. 😎

[@JacobWilson-i4y]

i knew he was going to be wrong about gilbert but im also a delusional m's fan

[@zachmoney716]

He’s on a heater guys

[@peterharris6409]

Carasco was a nightmare

[@JaredGoofball]

Tork is off to another frozen start. Hopefully he finishes with 37 homers somehow