Foresight Biases, Aha Moments, and the Next Michael Porter - Alex Fergnani Keynote at HEC Lausanne

[@alexanderlyon]

Great stuff, Alex.

[@AlexFergnani]

glad u like it Alex!

[@nicholaswestbury7689]

Emotions are an interesting one. I think to have a foresight process and practice to be trapped by particular emotions is the bias. The critical and reflective use of emotions to open up alternative ways of knowing is to my mind really helpful. But to be trapped by a single emotion, is not. In keeping with your later usage.

[@65C02movies]

Interesting stuffs but I suggest some more concrete contents about what we already know about future. And I say future, because for me the future is like a random variable. For example: The USA will continue to burn coal until 2035. China will continue to burn coal until 2050. India will continue to burn coal until 2060. Assuming these dates are respected, because if they continue to burn coal even beyond these dates... The ITER nuclear fusion power plant will not be operational (hopefully functional) until after 2055. UE green foolish ideas: destroying the European mechanical industry of internal combustion engines will not save planet Earth: because the rest of the world will not give up internal combustion engines. UE green foolish ideas: Destroying 30% of the dams in Italy, as part of a trend of desertification in the Mediterranean area, will not save human people on planet Earth from climate change damages UE green foolish ideas: Putting an incendiary coat of polystyrene and tar on houses, in a context of desertification in the Mediterranean area, will not save human people on planet Earth from climate change damages UE green foolish ideas: Destroying all primary sector (cattle breeding and agriculture) in Europe, to insert Soros bioreactors for synthetic meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, it will be useless: because the Second World and the Third World will not stop on using agriculture and cattle breeding, for their food production necessity. Assuming that the "know how" of the ITER project will be shared without too many legal obstacles, it will take another +35 years before other fusion power plants (ITER clones) will spread out, all around the world. Let's do some basic math: 2055+35=2090 on assuming there are no further construction delays for ITER clones power plant, all around the world. IMHO this is a very unlikely hypothesis, on assuming no construction delays in the future: just think of all future extreme weather events: those stuffs will multiply both in number and intensity. Probably the extreme weather events will have directly/indirectly impact on the construction works of all fusion power plants all around the world. It is quite reasonable to think it will be no nuclear fusion power plants on Earth, as a new and easy energy source, before the beginning of the 22nd century. So it is logical IMHO to assume that only from Jan/1st/2100 the ITER nuclear fusion power plants will be spread out all over the world. However for the early 22nd century it is highly probable that "all the geopolitical, climatic and ecosystem games" but also the problem of overpopulation on planet Earth, all those issues will have been resolved 50 years earlier (probably around 2050) with a probable WWIII in Siberia and some unavoidable Punic Wars in the Mediterranean area and a regional war around Australia. As you can see, this valuation is not fully of details: it is ceteris paribus the unknown trends of the melting of methane hydrates in Siberia with positive feedback mechanisms. Have a nice day!