Fulham's success is confusing... Here's why

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The Athletic FC

The Athletic FC

Күн бұрын

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Fulham surprisingly, in their return season back in the Premier League, are pushing towards the European places.
Jon Mackenzie has analysed their underlying numbers and suggests they are overperforming. But can it last?
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#Fulham #FFC #PremierLeague

Пікірлер: 212
@DS-bz4mz
@DS-bz4mz Жыл бұрын
As Arsenal fan, I'm so happy for Leno. He doesn't suit our style, but he's still a great shot-stopper
@noivern8595
@noivern8595 Жыл бұрын
Hes better than ramsdale anyway
@aymanhaque6936
@aymanhaque6936 Жыл бұрын
Yup he is a better shot-stopper than Ramsdale but Ramsdale's distribution is much much better though he makes mistakes for time to time (even Ederson does so no complain).
@ishaanhall78
@ishaanhall78 Жыл бұрын
better than Scamsdale
@ishaanhall78
@ishaanhall78 Жыл бұрын
@@aymanhaque6936 ramsdale passes the ball to the opposition half the time
@lebstep5057
@lebstep5057 Жыл бұрын
​@@ishaanhall78 Kicking the ball into the opponent's half and then trying to win the second ball is a tactic. By doing so you can quickly advance your team into an attacking position in the opponent's half and push your opponents into a deep position.
@peteredeoghon6457
@peteredeoghon6457 Жыл бұрын
It's actually crazy how good they've been. A side that were widely expected to be relegated in the top half with some considerable comfort. Yet it feels like nobody's been talking about them nearly enough
@shoppingforleaves3162
@shoppingforleaves3162 Жыл бұрын
Considerable comfort? They're 1 point ahead of 11th where they'll most likely finish based on form, especially now the suspensions will ruin them.
@peteredeoghon6457
@peteredeoghon6457 Жыл бұрын
@@shoppingforleaves3162 In terms of relegation
@tomsmith3216
@tomsmith3216 Жыл бұрын
They’ve been talked about too much, imo. Brentford have been talked about less and they’re there on merit, not over performance
@RenewedRS
@RenewedRS Жыл бұрын
I think Fulham still get relegated next season anyway
@matthewwoodgate8384
@matthewwoodgate8384 Жыл бұрын
@@shoppingforleaves3162 We are considerately comfortable and it's taken until March for tifo to make a video about us. Don't forgot pretty much everyone outside the Fulham fanbase predicted us 19th. I agree with the suspensions I wouldn't expect us to finish above 10th now but the gap to 12th is so large we should end up in a great position
@theportugueselegend
@theportugueselegend Жыл бұрын
I think the curved runs to make pressure on the ball carrier has to be one of the best defensive tactics recreated in recent years. Literally perfection for a lower rated side and can improve drastically your ball recovery.
@gambit0913
@gambit0913 Жыл бұрын
Didnt talk much about João Palhinha who has been key to Fulhams success
@Alphoric
@Alphoric Жыл бұрын
No it was just about the most pointless metric in football expected goals and expected goals scored against All the expected stats don’t matter at all
@MrBlue11900
@MrBlue11900 Жыл бұрын
​@@Alphoric lmao Brentford built a team based on these Niche stats. And their doing well. Must be something to it eh
@CLol11
@CLol11 Жыл бұрын
@@Alphoric It was also about tactics, watch the full video.
@sukhdevr3489
@sukhdevr3489 Жыл бұрын
@@Alphoric They do matter, you just can't understand them.
@tonymac608
@tonymac608 Жыл бұрын
Without Joa we aren’t half the team
@Omar_Little
@Omar_Little Жыл бұрын
What's his xViolentPushing/90?
@KhanCarnivore
@KhanCarnivore Жыл бұрын
😂😂
@SteveItOut
@SteveItOut Жыл бұрын
I'll always miss Alex but John produces banger after banger too. GGs John and GGs Joe for getting him in the door.
@cyn1clcynide
@cyn1clcynide Жыл бұрын
Kind of reminds me of the TED talk that the Brentford owner gave years ago, the example he used was Newcastle finishing fifth in the PL, while also having a significantly lower goal difference than all of the surrounding teams, and that it was not sustainable in the long run
@travislevison6074
@travislevison6074 Жыл бұрын
Really interesting video. I never really thought of Xg over/under performance like this, in terms of segregating it between which teams they play. Interesting how the conclusion was that although they’re over performing, they have a really good opportunity to match their underlying numbers with their actual results, whereas the initial thought would typically be the opposite; that their results would actually regress to the level of their underlying numbers. Great work Jon👍
@drex5160
@drex5160 Жыл бұрын
There's always those surprise clubs. The real test will be sustaining this form long term.
@monrow1961
@monrow1961 Жыл бұрын
Brighton is setting the bar for that at the moment.
@Kururin7x
@Kururin7x Жыл бұрын
@@monrow1961 theyve been doing it for a few seasons
@paulie-g
@paulie-g Жыл бұрын
@@Kururin7x Kicked on this season though. De Zerbi is getting the max out of that squad, imagine if they had a striker that could score reliably. I'd be interested to see what happens next season (assuming their squad is not picked apart and De Zerbi doesn't get an offer from a huge club) - it usually takes the league a season to work out how to play against a new style.
@drex5160
@drex5160 Жыл бұрын
Potter got them goin and de zerbi is keepin up the momentum. Lets see how long it lasts, Ranieri won the league one season and almost got relegated the next.
@paulie-g
@paulie-g Жыл бұрын
@@drex5160 De Zerbi has done much, much more than simply "keepin up the momentum". They're much, much more potent now, and that's down to his tactics and getting players to produce goals and goal involvements.
@alexknight6470
@alexknight6470 Жыл бұрын
This video highlights the one thing missing in xG and xGA. The quality of the players involved. For example, Harry Kane consistently over-performs his xG. At some point you should consider that he is more like to score from each position than “the average player”. Additionally, he’s more likely to score against worse goalkeepers and less likely against great shot stoppers. While it may be easier, arbitrarily splitting teams by top half and bottom half won’t tell the whole story either. These calculations could be expanded to consider the opposition team and players in each scenario and give a far more accurate story in predicting actual expected goals and assists.
@Redmond__
@Redmond__ Жыл бұрын
I've been waiting a long time for a Fulham vid. Thank you all so much for the content.
@Logstickz
@Logstickz Жыл бұрын
Goals change games, and xStats currently do not take game state into account. For example, teams normally accumulate & concede xG at different rates when when it’s 0-0 compared to 0-1. So when you look at a full match, and especially multiple matches, of accumulated xStats, your using a measuring tool that will consistently say top teams over preform. The solution to fix this misuse of xStats is to incorporate game state into the xG formula which is coming, or break up xG accumulated into different game states like xG for 0-0, xG for trailing 0-1 or xG while playing ahead 1-0 and so on.
@Agtsmirnoff
@Agtsmirnoff Жыл бұрын
If a penalty is worth 0.8 xG, Mitro has missed two pens this season, which explains a good part of the "xG gap". I wonder why that wasn't mentioned.
@Madddog1991
@Madddog1991 Жыл бұрын
Great video. Worth mentioning that against Arsenal, Newcastle and Brentford (top half teams) Fulham were without Palhinha and they’re overly reliant on his defensive midfield dominance.
@Staff1A
@Staff1A Жыл бұрын
Don't forget very late goals conceded against city and united. 2 points from those games lost out on as well.
@benyoung4305
@benyoung4305 Жыл бұрын
Palhinha is quality.
@rolandcooke
@rolandcooke Жыл бұрын
McKenzie: "I've just finished my deep dive on Fulham, took me ages but I'm really happy with it". Devine: "Mitrovic just got a straigh red card for pushing the referee". McKenzie: "Motherf....."
@matthewwoodgate8384
@matthewwoodgate8384 Жыл бұрын
As a Fulham fan not worried about this at all you only stay up by beating the bottom half teams which we do quite often and the video suggests we aren't too lucky in doing this so long may it continue
@gaughen
@gaughen Жыл бұрын
any time a non tourist club has a vid the top comment is “ as a top 6 fan”
@louisbinns1144
@louisbinns1144 Жыл бұрын
I appreciate the tactical insights provided by the video, and it is generally a good sign for a recently promoted side to be performing asymmetrically in this way, because of the increased impact of taking points away from sides that rival your aims for the season (i.e. you win more '6 pointers') But I still have to dissent a bit from the overall conclusion of the video. Even when segregating the output of the model results, Fulham are still overperforming their metrics on both sides. Against top half sides, they are operating at -0.6 GD per 90 vs -1.1 xGD p 90 (a difference of roughly 0.3 points per game, I believe), and against lower sides, a similar story - +0.9 GD p 90 compared to +0.4 xGD p 90 (which equates to a gain per match of about 0.4 points, again someone correct me if this is wrong or a little coarse grained) Which is to say, we can't place too much emphasis on the asymmetric nature of their performances in terms of their overall results and league position, since their overperformance is pretty uniformly distributed, and we'd expect in the long run a regression to the mean against both lower and higher ranked sides, and therefore fewer points in all those games.
@Agtsmirnoff
@Agtsmirnoff Жыл бұрын
You're wrong
@williamsdenes
@williamsdenes Жыл бұрын
Would love a behind the scenes vid on how you guys do the tactical analysis, make one of these etc
@HaiLeQuang
@HaiLeQuang Жыл бұрын
Kudo to Mitrovic because last time he played with Newcastle or Fulham in EPL, he was a very average striker. Now he's so lethal.
@holdbrillan100
@holdbrillan100 Жыл бұрын
Revolutionary conclusion at the end there "Fulham gets less points from the good teams than they get from the worse teams", Stunnin
@CLol11
@CLol11 Жыл бұрын
Watch the full video, it's about explaining why Fulham are getting less points from good teams and more from worse teams.
@finndaniels9139
@finndaniels9139 Жыл бұрын
It’s an interesting point that intends to explain a reason why the underlying numbers don’t match up to the actual numbers. If you don’t want to engage in the context don’t comment
@timnguyen1464
@timnguyen1464 Жыл бұрын
I really enjoy video like this, that Tifo covers not just strategy but also the stat number and explains to us what it means. Great analysis like always. Keep up the good work guys
@marianchicago4002
@marianchicago4002 Жыл бұрын
Arsene Wegner and Arsenal think starting around 2008 or 2010 would dominate bottom half of the table but would loose most of their games against their top 4 rivals, yet it was good enough to get them top 4 with no problem, so if they become more ruthless against bottom teams, they could easily get into european places.
@keelybannister6487
@keelybannister6487 Жыл бұрын
Very good video. Clear and yet still detailed. It will be interesting to see if 'second season' syndrome affects Fulham.
@matthewwoodgate8384
@matthewwoodgate8384 Жыл бұрын
It all depends on whether we keep or lose Palhinha for me
@tomh2121
@tomh2121 Жыл бұрын
@@matthewwoodgate8384 easily our most important player
@JohnComeOnMan
@JohnComeOnMan Жыл бұрын
Hard to take my eyes off that forehead rug burn.
@EnglishMike
@EnglishMike Жыл бұрын
You can't really assess Fulham's xG-against discrepancy between the top-half vs bottom-half clubs without comparing it with those of the other teams around them. After all, there's such a huge gap this season between the top and bottom clubs that every club is going to have a similar xG discrepancy, regardless of the tactics they use. Everyone is going to find it much harder to score against top half clubs, aren't they? But if Fulham's xG-against when playing the bottom half is much lower than the league average, you can start to examine what they're doing defensively that makes them so effective against those weaker teams, and so on.
@bryceyoung1033
@bryceyoung1033 Жыл бұрын
Please could you do a video on the United defence specifically to see if de gea is saving us or if we are generally performing better
@BigBear12123
@BigBear12123 Жыл бұрын
Interesting vid, although as you would expect teams to have more xga against the top half, the stat out of context didn't actually mean anything.
@TKGriffiths
@TKGriffiths Жыл бұрын
Uh isn't every team in the league going to be performing better against bottom half teams than top half teams? Doesn't seem like rocket science. You don't need to analyze expected goals to tell you that, it's blindingly obvious.
@245cam
@245cam Жыл бұрын
Silva isn't capable of changing his system, he's too rigid. It's the reason he failed at Everton, he did very well for a time but eventually teams figured out how to exploit his system and it was never the same. Fulham are doing very well this year but wouldn't guarantee it will continue for the next year or two.
@Alphoric
@Alphoric Жыл бұрын
They’ll do better next year not worse
@paulie-g
@paulie-g Жыл бұрын
@@Alphoric Assuming they keep Palhinha, which I wouldn't bet on. There's a dearth of top DMs and plenty of elite clubs who need one. Fulham might get lucky with this - ManU got Casemiro, Liverpool might count on Fabinho recapturing form and Bajcetic kicking on (imo, the former isn't going to happen and the latter should be an 8/backup, would love us to go for Palhinha), and so on.
@tomh2121
@tomh2121 Жыл бұрын
@@paulie-g I think teams are unlikely to match Fulham’s valuation for Palhinha though. He’s on a 6 year deal with us, so still has 5 left. We’re a rich club so we’re not desperate for money. Clubs would have to pay what he’s worth to us and not what he’s worth to them and so I see valuations being widely different.
@paulie-g
@paulie-g Жыл бұрын
@@tomh2121 That's a fair point, but it also depends on the player and how hard he's willing to push for a move. Most clubs in Fulham's position would also be wise not to hamstring future recruitment efforts by becoming known for pricing players out of dream moves. He does seem the kind of player without whom the system wouldn't work (cf Gallagher at CP), so I certainly hope you can keep him as I hate it when 'more modest' clubs get their squads completely disassembled when they do well.
@tomh2121
@tomh2121 Жыл бұрын
@@paulie-g I think there is an understanding that Palhinha can and will go, I just wonder if next summer is that time. Still 4 years on his contract then and 29. A decent fee would still be paid and we would have built a solid foundation for prem survival. We need to buy a new younger cdm and blood them in.
@kiIIyourmasters
@kiIIyourmasters Жыл бұрын
A fascinating video, I think Silva knows full well that the playstyle doesn't quite work against superior opposition but he has said time and time again that he doesn't want the team to compromise their aggression because it would hurt morale?
@paulie-g
@paulie-g Жыл бұрын
It makes sense. Only very accompished teams can drastically alter playstyle from game to game and have it work. Teams at Fulham's level benefit more from consistent messaging and trying to improve within their way of playing.
@collapsiblechair9112
@collapsiblechair9112 Жыл бұрын
Maybe they're just confident and make the best of any opportunity given them at any time during a game, or they like playing with each other and play well as a team. Stats only tell part of the story.
@jeroldduquette1144
@jeroldduquette1144 Жыл бұрын
Given previous such analysis, it would be interesting to know how Fulham's xG differential was impacted by game state as well. I've always thought game state's influence on xG and xGA to be one of of Jon McKenzie's major analytical points on this channel and one which may have added to his breakdown here.
@scottmcnaughton539
@scottmcnaughton539 Жыл бұрын
It hasn't always been pretty, but we're staying up. By Christmas last time we knew we were going back down. We definitely need to evolve next season, but we did what a promoted team needs to do, win against other bottom 10 teams.
@dr_ubo
@dr_ubo Жыл бұрын
Excellent analysis, both football and statistically speaking, this is a much better way to analyze things.
@Johnstick118
@Johnstick118 Жыл бұрын
I’d love a video in this style but a retrospective of Leicester city during their title winning run. Just to see how it looked 😮
@WaineYam
@WaineYam Жыл бұрын
Fulham fan here (also a month late). the team definately over performed early on (Mitro was on fire) this season. But the defence has since tighten up (started to happen from Sept/Oct) , this happened in conjuction with Scoring less too. My point being. The Team has already started to lessen the outlying XG stats.
@leandrowngo
@leandrowngo Жыл бұрын
I finally understand what xG is after the explainer at the front. Good job.
@Alphoric
@Alphoric Жыл бұрын
It’s the most pointless stat is what it is because at the end of the match it doesn’t matter if a team has an expected goals of 10 if they end up losing 1-0 goals matter not expected goals
@CLol11
@CLol11 Жыл бұрын
@@Alphoric At matters because it tells you why a team is not finishing their chances. You could have an xg of 10 but almost all of your shots were from outside the box. You could have a high xg with shots close to penalty box, it could tell you your players are not finishing well compared to others. You could have a high xg but the opponent has a really good goalkeeper.
@Alphoric
@Alphoric Жыл бұрын
@@CLol11 it still doesn’t matter expected goals are pointless because football is about winning and expected goals are completely meaningless when you get games where 1 team gets xg of 3 and the other gets an xg of .05 if the team with the lower xg wins the xg clearly doesn’t matter. It’s not confusing that Fulham are doing well and using expected stats to show that is just dumb. It’s like bringing up haalands xg of 20 in the prem but that doesn’t matter as he’s scored 28 the metric is clearly flawed if it’s not showing reality it’s just so pointless and there’s a reason teams like Fulham are winning matches and it isn’t anything to do with their expected goals, not a single person at Fulham cares about xg It also doesn’t tell you why a team is missing chances it just tells you that a computer somewhere has said this shot has a % chance of going in that’s completely different from if the shot does go in though. Even managers have said it’s a useless stat as it doesn’t truly reflect their team’s performances
@CLol11
@CLol11 Жыл бұрын
​@@Alphoric I think you are misunderstanding xG. xG is not supposed to exactly predict how many goals a player or team scores. The whole point of xG along with other stats is to tell you the performance of the team or player, not who wins or who loses. Look at Timo Werner for example, there's a good reason why he left Chelsea, he doesn't score a lot of goals and his xG vs goals scored supports that. If a player is well known to be underperforming their xG for long periods of time, teams will obviously try to find another target. You fail to realize that when looking at the xG of a specific chance, that decimal number that comes out is based the average player finishing a chance. Using your Haaland example, it shows that Haaland is obviously a very good finisher since on average, a player will score 20 but Haaland is doing even better than the average player by scoring 28. Teams like Brentford and Brighton do this a lot and constantly use stats like xG and others to sign their players, and look how well those two teams are doing. If you say xG is dumb then those two teams would have never been succesful if they didn't rely on it. The point of xG is to help teams analyze their games not to tell which team deserves to win or lose. If you flip a coin 10 times, and you get 10 heads that doesn't mean the 50% to get heads or tails probability is wrong. When you do it like 1000 times the number of heads and tails you will get will regress towards the mean. Likewise, if a team is winning but their xG and xGA is telling them they should be losing, the chances of the team regressing back to the mean and losing will be higher. If you got a low xG then that means you will probably need to create more chances and you train your players to help create more chances, if you got a high xGA then you probably need to improve your defence. That is obviously an oversimplification but if a team is not performing well, they can use stats to help figure out how to improve the team. The point im saying, is that you can't blindly use xG alone, you need to use it with context, to help make an analysis, its a stat that is used as information for the bigger picture.
@Alphoric
@Alphoric Жыл бұрын
@@CLol11 xg means expected goals expected and predicted are the same thing an xg shot of .5 means a computer has predicted that half those shots will go in If a keeper is off his line and gets chipped from half way the xg is 0.01 even if in reality it’s higher that that
@arsenalogist4285
@arsenalogist4285 Жыл бұрын
It's a decent analysis, but don't get too statistically obsessed as the numbers are only a part of football. Also against Arsenal Fulham were without Paulhiha and Wilian too.
@solanki_iitgn6422
@solanki_iitgn6422 Жыл бұрын
I'd say they should continue in the same vein against the top teams as well and just try to improve their overall gameplay. To remain in PL, most important thing to do is to beat the bottom 10 teams which their style is clearly allowing them to do, and it shows in the underlying numbers vs those teams as well. So rather than alter their playing style completely each week according to opposition, it's better to try and perfect your style and allow every player to become an expert in what they have to do in each situation on the pitch. Against the top teams, they can continue their high risk, high reward approach. After all, the whole idea is to get the most points while playing attractive football as well rather than just improve underlying numbers.
@micayahritchie7158
@micayahritchie7158 Жыл бұрын
4:54 Idk if I like the confidence level with which you say this. We're talking relatively smaller numbers here surely one would expect significant deviation from the expected value to not entirely be that uncommon. Can we have an expected goals 95% confidence interval? Or an Expected goals standard error just so we have some idea what this distribution is meant to look like?
@jeremiahbaker4489
@jeremiahbaker4489 Жыл бұрын
Tifo Team: why don’t we ever look at the post-shot xG for an attacking player’s shots? Wouldn’t comparing their post-shot xG to their xG be a measurement of their shooting/finishing quality? So if Mitro gets a header inside the six, but puts it right at the keeper, he’d get a negative differential, but if someone like KDB bends a shot into the corner from outside the box, he’d have a largely positive differential.
@paulie-g
@paulie-g Жыл бұрын
Not sure about Tifo, but various TA articles and pods very much do do that when discussing a player's quality. It's just that normal xG is the correct metric for the quality of chance the team generates, so is appropriate when discussing how that team performs.
@jeremiahbaker4489
@jeremiahbaker4489 Жыл бұрын
@@paulie-g interesting, I’ve never heard it done before! I’ve also not seen any stat database that collects the post-shot xG for an attacking players shots, but I’m not subscribed to any paid data services either.
@paulie-g
@paulie-g Жыл бұрын
@@jeremiahbaker4489 Yeah, us mere mortals don't have access to the juiciest modern stats, sadly. Post-shot xG is the least of them, there's better pressing stats than PPDA, better progression stats and so on.
@NostalgiNorden
@NostalgiNorden Жыл бұрын
Especially with those 3 red cards...
@emmayeah1971
@emmayeah1971 Жыл бұрын
This whole video is just about how good a goalie Leno is and Mitrovic is a top striker. Any team coming to the PL next season should take note.
@gbrl433
@gbrl433 Жыл бұрын
How top 6 clubs pass up on Palhinha is crazy to me
@gordon1545
@gordon1545 Жыл бұрын
Team concedes more chances against better players than less good players. Huge if true.
@jordon2074
@jordon2074 Жыл бұрын
I don't see know people find Fulhams success confusing. Have any of ya actually watched them play?
@seanclark2085
@seanclark2085 Жыл бұрын
Genius, they're better against teams below them than teams above them ...... who would believe that ?
@theskankingpigeon965
@theskankingpigeon965 Жыл бұрын
11:41 I swear you said "defensively", but the closed caption writes "offensively". The analysis only makes sense if you mean "offensively", as you just showed Fulham playing a high press against Arsenal.
@injest1928
@injest1928 Жыл бұрын
Tldw: Their goalkeeper good. They do well vs bad teams and do badly vs good teams.
@Agtsmirnoff
@Agtsmirnoff Жыл бұрын
But they haven't done horrible against top teams, aside from the recent Arsenal & Brentford matches (both without Palhinha due to a unfair suspension), they lost all their matches against "top teams" to losses by a single goal, usually a relatively late goal.
@williamspooner761
@williamspooner761 Жыл бұрын
Amazing analysis - This is proper, Jamie "I wear tight trousers" Redknapp take notes
@ChArLiE-1chaz9
@ChArLiE-1chaz9 Жыл бұрын
Wonder how they'll do without mitrovic
@tomh2121
@tomh2121 Жыл бұрын
Will be harder but we have an average replacement in Carlos Vinicius. Luckily we aren’t reliant on Mitro for goals as our other forwards like Solomon and BDR chip in
@Ankur3108
@Ankur3108 Жыл бұрын
Really nice analysis work,this one. Thanks
@nigelbaldwin1038
@nigelbaldwin1038 Жыл бұрын
Silva passed record of loyalty, is extremely low.
@finnmoran
@finnmoran Жыл бұрын
Do we really need to be explained what expected goals is 3 times in every video? Really feels like John is unnecessarily talking down to the audience
@freescoring
@freescoring Жыл бұрын
Wow, team plays better against bottom half of the table and worse against top half of the table. What a surprise. 😮
@jaden7244
@jaden7244 Жыл бұрын
I dont mean to be rude but you spent 12 mins explaining why it's harder to beat Manchester city than Southampton
@yKreepzz
@yKreepzz Жыл бұрын
I'm glad this shines a spotlight on how good Leno has been for Fulham this season.
@Agtsmirnoff
@Agtsmirnoff Жыл бұрын
Shocking we got him for 8 mil, he’s worth a lot more
@tlawal7
@tlawal7 Жыл бұрын
How many times was "underlying numbers" said?
@bob-manuel
@bob-manuel Жыл бұрын
what software do you use to do the analysis on the screen?
@jamesmowbray1837
@jamesmowbray1837 Жыл бұрын
I love looking at stats like this. A lot of people don't understand or don't care about the nuances of statistics.
@andyhills9972
@andyhills9972 Жыл бұрын
Am I the only one who can’t cope with the numbers on the shirts in the background missing the number 7
@jackybec5076
@jackybec5076 Жыл бұрын
Did they get a much higher value xGot which would basically justify their xg underlying numbers? 2:57
@samuelng1443
@samuelng1443 Жыл бұрын
Because the top half sides are better at attacking???
@jerryrodriguez867
@jerryrodriguez867 Жыл бұрын
1:44 the idea then...HE SCORES!
@SrikkanthG
@SrikkanthG Жыл бұрын
Beautiful analysis
@connor7819
@connor7819 Жыл бұрын
The phrase "the underlying numbers," lives in my head rent free now lol
@muhammedgamal5871
@muhammedgamal5871 Жыл бұрын
I think they would go down in the table next season
@mauroafonso6625
@mauroafonso6625 Жыл бұрын
if i had a dollar for every time Mackenzie used "underlaying numbers" id be very rich
@sulaak
@sulaak Жыл бұрын
Fascinating analysis and a brilliant presentation
@isaiahgere9283
@isaiahgere9283 Жыл бұрын
Marco silva is such a great coach. I really hoped he had replaced mourinho at man utd at the time
@markhinton5156
@markhinton5156 Жыл бұрын
Great analysis. Thanks for this.
@cymraegpunk1420
@cymraegpunk1420 Жыл бұрын
One might even say that they have been playing.... Elite football. I'll see myself out.
@romaobraz4295
@romaobraz4295 Жыл бұрын
they are just a solid, solid team. love watching them play
@538696
@538696 Жыл бұрын
This was really well done.
@dylan__dog
@dylan__dog Жыл бұрын
They probably wont be making it any higher than they are now considering Mitrovic is most likely facing a significant punishment over his FA cup tantrum
@Yellowblam
@Yellowblam Жыл бұрын
Great coverage.
@iandavies7991
@iandavies7991 Жыл бұрын
John have you considered working for a football club as an analyst? Job offers should be incoming
@MartinGreen932
@MartinGreen932 Жыл бұрын
Don't just about all teams concede more goals against the best teams in the league compared to the worst in every league that has ever been played? I really enjoy most of your analysis but this example was poor. You needed to show the average goals conceded against top half opposition by teams in Fulham's current position over several other seasons to show a serious comparison.
@Qlicky
@Qlicky Жыл бұрын
It is well explained in the video. The problem is that Fulham play the same way vs teams that will punish you for every mistake as they play vs relegation fodder who are not. Let's take the example mentioned in the video, the game vs Arsenal. If Fulham played a low block vs Arsenal as most teams do, they could have kept Arsenal at bay, or not scoring more than one or two goals. What happened in reality is that Fulham were 3 goals down at halftime and it could have been 7. Your idea of analysis over several seasons doesnt hold water in football. Purely because you can have 3 different teams, tactics and managers in that time. A team could finish one season 6th, another one 12th and be relegated in third season. Just taking average position/points from those 3 seasons to make some comparison wouldnt work at all.
@MartinGreen932
@MartinGreen932 Жыл бұрын
@@Qlicky The video explains as you say, that Fulham play the same way against the top half teams v bottom half. Fulham are 9th. The video needed to show how teams in 9th or with similar points as Fulham have conceded against top half compared to bottom half in other leagues/previous seasons. I would suggest well over 90% of them concede more against top half opposition. We need to know how Fulham compare with these teams.
@Qlicky
@Qlicky Жыл бұрын
@@MartinGreen932 The video didn't need to show that at all, it's you who thinks showing stats for multiple seasons somehow meaningfully relates to any other single season. It does not. And it never did. Which is why this video doesn't show that. Chelsea was 10th in one season and then went on to win it the next season. The season afterwards they were 5th. They went from 50 points to 93 points and then to 70 points. 20 points difference between any single of those 3 seasons. Going by your logic there wasnt a chance in hell for a team sitting 10th winning the league next season and then not even making top 4 season after that. These comparisons of multiple seasons in football tell you nothing at all. Because there are injuries, manager sackings, players transfers and dozen of other things that directly affect it.
@honestarsenalfan7038
@honestarsenalfan7038 Жыл бұрын
Jons knowledge of ball is actually insane!
@EffectiveFootball
@EffectiveFootball Жыл бұрын
The conclusion doesn't entirely make sense. This wouldn't reduce the gap in expected points
@tylerdavis716
@tylerdavis716 Жыл бұрын
They’ll collapse next season following the trend of Leeds and Sheff utd. I think some Superstition finishing 9th in a teams first season and having a horrible season after
@collinzulu2175
@collinzulu2175 Жыл бұрын
I'd love to see this for united
@domhuckle
@domhuckle Жыл бұрын
You'd think top quality managers would see the need to defend slightly differently against Leeds than Man City
@matthewwoodgate8384
@matthewwoodgate8384 Жыл бұрын
What the video doesn't mention is particularly away we do actually sometimes sit back a lot which was very successful vs Chelsea and (albeit with a lot of luck) got a win away at Brighton playing that way
@pinguwingu9
@pinguwingu9 Жыл бұрын
W TIM REAM
@Mauriceshorts1
@Mauriceshorts1 Жыл бұрын
Fulham are a good bet to go down next season
@millllbs
@millllbs Жыл бұрын
Very well explained
@kevinikeonu3844
@kevinikeonu3844 Жыл бұрын
Excellent video
@MenWithVen
@MenWithVen Жыл бұрын
They'll be circling the drain soon enough. All the small clubs in the PL are just waiting their turn to drop. Any success is fleeting
@PrabhavKhandelwal
@PrabhavKhandelwal Жыл бұрын
Jon ‘underlying numbers’ Mackenzie
@Timbone07
@Timbone07 Жыл бұрын
Summary: They need to learn to park the bus against bigger teams
@haimainjauo242
@haimainjauo242 Жыл бұрын
JJ should have made this video. He's all about confusion
@alexandergeorgiev74
@alexandergeorgiev74 Жыл бұрын
What success what will they this season
@shahnewaz9700kf
@shahnewaz9700kf Жыл бұрын
Jon McKenzie is the best in this channel by far for how good he explains. He's awesome! Also he's rocking that tshirt today.
@vernatius6143
@vernatius6143 Жыл бұрын
I love this channel
@epictrollsandhowto
@epictrollsandhowto Жыл бұрын
I thought Andreas pereira was crap proving to be a decent mid table player
@whiteboyplayssoccer
@whiteboyplayssoccer Жыл бұрын
REEAAAAAMMMMM
@420MrReefer
@420MrReefer Жыл бұрын
I hate that I enjoy these videos......nerds !!!
@rupeoverlay3153
@rupeoverlay3153 Жыл бұрын
They will prob lose their top three players in the summer so will struggle next year
@croissantpower
@croissantpower Жыл бұрын
Shame they’re probably going to go a bit downhill now after Mitro is banned for a while
@matthewwoodgate8384
@matthewwoodgate8384 Жыл бұрын
and still finish 11th probably
@croissantpower
@croissantpower Жыл бұрын
@@matthewwoodgate8384 yeah there's a big drop off after 11th place so I can't imagine them going any lower that that
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