Future of Supply Chain Series 3: Future of Supply Chain in China

Since joining the WTO in 2001, China has grown rapidly to become the largest exporter in the world and a cornerstone to global manufacturing capabilities. Over the past 20 years, China's manufacturing output grew on average of around 13% per year and now accounts for 30% of its GDP, while its share of total global exports rose from 4.2% to 12.7%. Today, Chinese manufacturing amounts to over $4 trillion, equivalent to 28 percent of global manufacturing output - which is more than 1.7x the US, 2.8x Japan and 4.4x than Germany.
Storm clouds have gathered though - over the past two years, the pitfalls of extensive reliance on Chinese manufacturing embedded within the global supply chain were revealed. Fraying US-China relations and the Covid-19 pandemic have not only caused short-term shocks but are also leaving lingering long-term questions about future of China's role in the global supply chain. Policy initiatives by key economies to provide assistance for companies to leave China threatens to "pull the plug" on Chinese manufacturing dominance.
Will the exposed fragility of the global supply chain prompt MNCs to shift their production out of China? What is the impact on supply chains from the ongoing US-China tit-for-tat trade tariffs and technology decoupling pressures? Has there been any significant production disruption and supply chain shifts during the pandemic? More broadly, what's the economic impact on China and the implications for companies impacted by these changing dynamics?
American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong