What Russia's Defensive Lines Tell Us about Ukraine's Kursk Offensive

[@np8139]

I'm glad to see this channel evolve from metaphorical lines on maps to literal lines on maps.

[@skarhabekgreyrukh8601]

yeah Avdiivka has fallen

[@Teppo_Hacknå]

A few years from now this channel is just William inhaling lines of K from some random map. :3

[@thinkerly1]

@@skarhabekgreyrukh8601 Moscow fell in 1238. The Poles took Moscow twice, in 1610 and 1620. NATO took Moscow at midnight on December 31/January 1/1991/1992.

[@thinkerly1]

Putin has never forgiven Gorbachev for losing the Cold War.

[@skarhabekgreyrukh8601]

@@thinkerly1 yeah Bakhmut cannt hold either.... whats Next? Pokrovsk?

[@daaven6452]

I never new I craved lines on maps. I then discovered this channel. Huzzah!

[@phrozen17]

You mean knew?

[@jintsuubest9331]

​@@phrozen17 Dot mettar. Iz stil lien en mep.

[@olivere5497]

​@@jintsuubest9331orc lives matter boss

[@daaven6452]

@@phrozen17 lol thanks. Autocorrect is a killer

[@waynesworldofsci-tech]

Outracing to the new defence line happens more than most think. Take Sicily in WW2. Every time the Axis thought they’d established a new defensive line they found that Canadian troops had already breached it. Or consider Rommel’s drive into France. The French never managed to establish a new defensive line.

[@jackthorton10]

Exactly

[@mznxbcv12345]

France's Maginot line held actually, was bypassed through Belgium.

[@waynesworldofsci-tech]

@@mznxbcv12345 Yes, and the French never managed to develop a new defensive line.

[@JackFrawley101]

The Maginot suggestion

[@Gjudxdkjyzddhjnr7091]

but Ukraine hasn't the capability to advance further. The PR offensive is now going to become a killing zone for the flower of the UA. The Ukrainians wanted Russia to shit themselves and send large forces from the Eastern front for relief. The opposite has happened. Ukraine has taken its best troops from the East and that front is now collapsing. Ukraines tactical win is a strategic defeat given its war aim is to eject Russia from Ukrainian 1991 borders

[@krisfrederick5001]

Russia keeps making vague threats about crossing their imaginary "red lines." They crossed Ukraine's red line 923 days ago. It's called a "border." Wonderful channel Mr. Spaniel.

[@sendhelp9534]

Actually they did that 3823 days ago.

[@puraLusa]

it's pinkish lines not red ones 😂

[@jesseperry7141]

Russia has nukes.

[@andrewjenkinson7052]

As Canute discovered, if you paint your red lines on the sand they do not stop the tide.

[@graemepeters5717]

Was that because on 16th Feb '22, the OSCE recorded more than 40 ceasefire breaches as the UA began shelling the people of Donbas, rising to more than 2,000 a day on 20th, 21st and 22nd? On 24th Feb, as requested under Article 51 of the UN Charter, Russia stepped in to stop it!

[@peterclarke3020]

This also hilights another issue - that Ukraine also needs more Hydraulic Excavators and Digger Machines. That requirement often gets overlooked.

[@njebei]

Military grade trenching vehicles is a problem for the United States which is why Ukraine doesn't have many. I'm sure the US Army is taking a long look at fast tracking a new US trenching vehicle to include in its future military doctrine but they won't be built in time to help Ukraine.

[@margaretbuchholz8884]

Bro but how

[@Big_Caesar1]

@@njebei Why design a special machine when we can use our many, many excavators, backhoes, and bulldozers? Either way, US military doctrine isnt to sit in a trench and rot away, its to pummel the enemy with everything you have until they don't exist, not much time spent in a trench, more like FOB with full air superiority and burger king.

[@gvibration1]

It's a long time since any military's thought about trench warfare.

[@PavolFilek]

Ukraine needs to understand, that USA can not win lost war. USA lost 40 trillions. And result ==== ZERO.

[@jeremiahchamberlin4499]

I love your outline approach: naming the topics you plan to cover and implicitly making the logical connections between your points. Good job.

[@canadaboy2503]

16:52 "With rain on its way" actually cracked me up, it amazes me the photos you manage to find

[@DemolitionManDemolishes]

Man, I havent noticed it at first, thats gold

[@Prometheus-Unbound]

Ukraine has always had to defend the whole border since Russia as the aggressor could attack as it will. Ukraine meanwhile appeared to be restrained by Western nerves from attacking Russia - Putin clearly believed that and hence the lack of real defences. Western reticence protected Russia from it's manpower shortages. Ukraine has changed the rules of the game and now Russia must attempt to defend everywhere - they really have the dilemma you have described before, what is the necessary number to defend effectively or just provide a token presence to be reinforced if needed.

[@stationd5]

What dilemma are they having and has the Kursk offensive changed anything for Ukraine? No This channel is pro Ukraine and pure propaganda. Russia is advancing in the east with ease

[@ivandankob7112]

It just proves that ruzzia was never scared of nato invading them and they are barely “guarding” their border with nato countries these days, if they’re not even worried to guard their border with Ukraine that they fight RIGHT NOW

[@thinkerly1]

It's simply reality. Russia is broke. Millions of men have left. Russia left its biggest customer, Europe, and in spite of the lies you see, China and India are not "making up" for Europe. What the Russ agents never mention is that prior to the sanctions China and India were already customers. Moscow cannot force them to triple what they buy; they don't have the money for it, anyway.

[@maropenemphasha5403]

What crap is this. 8 years of Russia being patient with Ukraine and you manage to come with such crap.

[@maropenemphasha5403]

​@thinkerly1 Russia is not broke. Europe is not the only market and Europe is still buying from Russia. List the European countries at risk of recession.

[@kylerkastner2808]

Ukraine is just conducting a special military counteroffensive operation to free oppressed Ukrainians in Kursk

[@AquaticIdealist]

The East's refusal to acknowledge the Kursk People's Republic is truly concerning

[@evrose]

I heard that Kursk is filled with Nazis!

[@BambinoAmericano]

From the nazis

[@donaldcamberly]

Really all of Russia is just a part of Ukraine - right?

[@ChatGPT_ChatbotTest]

​@@RobbyCarlyle nah its still funny lol

[@DavianHeartley]

Thank you William, love your takes on this war

[@BxBxProductions]

William doesn't understand that the whole purpose of the SMO wasn't to 'invade' Ukraine and claim their lands as portrayed by Western Media. Land claims are just a bonus and a warning to Ukraine to stay neutral. The whole SMO's about Russia's national security than land grabs - Russia has enough land to manage and as we can all see, a complete takeover of Ukraine will not be tolerated by the international community even Russia's allies. William does not understand Russia's goals and his analysis are based on assumptions of Russian aims. As a neutral observer watching events unfold since the Annexation about a decade ago, it ain't hard to figure out who the actors involved are. Ask yourself who was the VP of the USA at the time and who was the President of the USA now when the recent conflict kicked off. The laptop makes things much more obvious.

[@Operation_C4]

The only bad thing about this channel is not having enough content to listen to on my daily walk to class 😔

[@chrismax2313]

Realist shit in this comment section

[@Gametheory101]

I'm gonna go back to working on super-long form soon, so that might help!

[@landotucker]

​@@Gametheory101 More like the Taiwan video? Yes please 😁

[@kingace6186]

@@landotucker Forget Hollywood, I get my movies from "Lines on Maps Production".

[@colonelfustercluck486]

Logistics and Tactics: Get a class closer to your home.... until it matches.

[@vaizdas-ir-garsas1978]

When it comes to the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk matter, I think Ukrainian war journalist Butusov has a good take on the matter. He has good contacts with the frontline troops and as far as I can tell, most troops are criticising the local top commanders (general major and leutenant colonel) who have little actual battle experience and constantly mess up routine soldiering issues, like rotations and such. Of course, lack of resources and lack of experienced reserves have great impact, but I think there is also signs of a long time mismanagement in this particular sector.

[@BxBxProductions]

Ukraine has been well known on a global stage for having corrupt politicians be it western or Russian backed way before this conflict even began. Expect mismanagement on the highest levels.

[@ukie5130]

Mismanagement or outright corruption?

[@BxBxProductions]

@@ukie5130 both

[@Chuck_Hooks]

With Putin's rules, voting in Kursk so far is 105% in favor of joining Ukraine.

[@Chuck_Hooks]

​@@ГеннадийСеднев-м3щThe voting is now 107% in favor

[@killbotter6998]

@@ГеннадийСеднев-м3щ bless you

[@spxram4793]

well, Venezuela's Maduro managed 109%, so I trust Ukraine can do better 🤣

[@learnyturny2272]

NO russian in kursk wants to be a part of ukraine

[@Drew-gi5dw]

@@ГеннадийСеднев-м3щ- who is “us”? The people of Kursk who’ve been abandoned by Moscow? The Russian troops robbing their fellow Russians? There isn’t a person in occupied Kursk, experiencing the hospitality of Ukrainian occupiers, who don’t want to be part of Ukraine and are not now enemies of Moscow.

[@bernardfinucane2061]

Another point is that the Seym river Line is a better border than the current border. Russia may not be able to expel the Ukrainians if they take the area south of the river. One strategy Ukraine may be pursuing is to move into Russia to choose more defensible borders

[@tomk3732]

Ukraine is already being pushed back and retreating. They gambled and lost.

[@bernardfinucane2061]

@@tomk3732 Ah yes, the new Kremlin line. You have no idea if it is true or not, but it's your job to say it.

[@tomk3732]

@@bernardfinucane2061 well it's per live map UA. So is the Ukrainian MOD also doing the Kremlin line?!

[@Frommerman]

Just by invading Ukraine already won. They've shown their international allies that Russia's borders aren't a nuclear red line for Russia. Now that they've been literally invaded and not pressed the red button, would they do it if the US provided longrange fire capacity? Or hundreds of current-generation fighter jets? Or really any other materiel? Probably not. Russia's true red lines are where they've always been: drawn by their official nuclear doctrine inherited from the USSR. If it doesn't threaten the existence of the state, they aren't going to press the button. It's that simple.

[@stonem0013]

​@@tomk3732Gerasimov said the entire Ukrainian incursion was defeated in the first week, so clearly there must not be any Ukrainians in Kursk at this stage

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

From a purely strategic point of view, I would say Russia is probably making the right call by continuing to press its advantage in Pokrovsk, rather than hastily redeploying to counter in Kursk. Unfortunately.

[@Baebon6259]

they took Bakmut after they nearly encircled it...and that happened after months of heavy fighting. I don't know if they can do that again...especially when Pokrovsk is not a circular-ish city but rather elongated. Which force Russia to extend their lines to cover much longer front.

[@lastsong7159]

Yeah that's gonna be great for propaganda. "We have taken more foreign soil at the cost of motherland. Please praise our victory now." Lmao See below for Putin simps.

[@adude8046]

One would think that when the Ukrainians were planning to attack Kursk and a top goal was to force Russia to redeploy from the East that someone said 'hey what if we do all this and Russians don't take the bait?? Just saying' sure they have contigencies. The russians didn't take the 'bait' but they did change positions by thinning out non critical front line troops and moving them toward Pokrovsk or Kursk. They have massed in a salient that is strecthing towards a city that appears to be defended by conscripts and they have 2 months to get it done. Seems doable to them but they are falling into a trap.

[@boylikenik6167]

@@Baebon6259there are accounts of Russians pushing effectively time-wise, like avdivka, not everything has to be based on Bakmut performance.

[@ordinaryrat]

@@lastsong7159 The difference between Russia and Ukraine is that I don't think Russia does attacks purely for pr. While the Kursk offensive seems really iffy strategically and only makes sense from a pr perspective. Russia already has all the propoganda it needs. It can blatantly lie about the situation on the field, while Ukraine which has much more freedom of speech so it can't.

[@MakDemonik]

16:53 "With Rain on its way" and the picture with the cut of I'M (uk)RAIN(ian) is priceless.

[@ukie5130]

Priceless just like you, right, comrade? People like you end up as cannon fodder for the Russkie war machine.

[@leannevandekew1996]

Vladimir told his doctor,: ‘Every day I wake up, I look in the mirror, I want to throw up. What’s wrong with me?’ The doctor replied: "I don’t know, but your eyesight is perfect."

[@stevenrix7024]

Do you mean Vladimir’s ex-doctor? 🤔

[@Justwantahover]

Are you really talking about Putin or Trump or both? They get along well (according to Trump). 😅

[@ianjohnson3770]

@@Justwantahoverthey sure do lol

[@sheepmasterrace]

there will never be another norm macdonald

[@leannevandekew1996]

@@sheepmasterrace Grams, It's a Rodney Dangerfield joke.

[@skepular]

Thank you for this timely analysis

[@Alexander-yb1zc]

Something interesting I've noticed is that if Pokrovsk becomes contested/captured and logistics for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk have to go north along the M03 to Izium. This is obvious but the interesting part is that simultaneously as the push has developed on Pekrovsk a nother push has developed south of Kupiansk towards the P79 and the towns of Kruhlyakivka and Borova. These towns are situated on the Oskil river providing a solid defence and if taken would put Izium within the extremes of Russian artillery. I'm not a militray expert but logically it wouldn't be too extreme to conclude the Russian ideal scenario is to force Ukrainian logistics through this route similar to the "Road of life" at Bakmut and shell it starving out the defenders of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Please poke holes in this theory if I've missed anything.

[@stationd5]

You didn't. He's never going to talk about Russian success so there's that

[@UGNAvalon]

Considering how slow Russian progress has been so far, he likely won’t talk about it until it’s relevant (ie close to happening). No point in speculating on long-long term strategic goals if they won’t manifest for 6+mths. 🤷‍♂️

[@kartikeyatiwari2502]

I find it fascinating that he has just assumed that Russia lost people in 5 figures in this offensive but has not said even a word on the Ukrainian losses ... NATO propoganda bot alert

[@panan7777]

@@kartikeyatiwari2502 WHO is sending 60 years old tanks on the front ??? BOT All this dozens of exploding tanks are CGI ????

[@freedomfighter22222]

International and national level roads aren't the only ones that exist, railways and several roads goes directly west from Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, the M-03 is not exclusively the only lifeline to those cities.

[@Xeknos]

I appreciate the "Pop-up video" thing William's been doing over the past several videos.

[@Gametheory101]

90s era VH1. It was a good time to be alive.

[@ropable]

Anders Neilsen recently had one of the most clear-eyed takes on the Russian progress towards Pokrovsk. It's worth watching.

[@HansLemurson]

I had a personal experience with this playing Dwarf Fortress, trying to contain a flood from an accidental aquifer breach. It takes time to haul the material and build the walls to contain the waters, so my first construction site ended up underwater. I had to sacrifice a whole section of my fortress to the waters in order to build the containment walls in safety. It was bad to lose my gem stockpiles, but as the waters lapped up against the newly built walls, I knew I'd made the right choice.

[@Flappayy]

William, Please please please please please PLEASE make 'Lines On Maps' merchandise. Sincerely, William

[@stevenrix7024]

To add to his books on coffee tables?

[@dojokhan]

I’d definitely buy a lines on maps shirt 😂

[@espanadorada7962]

Redditor moment

[@halkihaxx5]

Really like the push back against the lost cost fallacy push back. There's a good reason pretty much everyone has it, it's served an evolutionary benefit. Without it we never would've bothered with most of the things that were needed for technological progress. Even further back, why bother continuing to look for food rather than staying put to conserve energy? The second one is a valid strategy for many species, but we're mobile, so we need the sunk cost fallacy.

[@RobinTheBot]

It's interesting to think that the choice to build defensive positions is now one that can be sensibly delayed/compromised for Operational Security. With so many eyes watching it's really forcing you to flip your cards and show everyone what you REALLY think. I wonder how we'll see decoys and deception evolve around this.

[@joeclaridy]

It was speculated that the failed 2023 offensive was in part due to information leaks from other allied nations. To me it has come apparent that top Ukrainian officials do not believe they cannot trust western allies.

[@thePronto]

The bottom line is that Russia's gains are in 'reclaiming' some of the territory that they annexed in 2022, but Ukraine's gains are net new. Similarly, in the air war, Russia continues to strike inside Ukraine, but Ukraine is striking deeper into Russia. You might call this 'the sunk gain fallacy': you can be so committed to some meager gains that you ignore the real losses. The real loss being that your gain is costing you more than you can afford: kinda like being 'house poor'.

[@ethereal2620]

No, almost all of the gains in 2024 were "new" gains. The 2022 counteroffensive reclaimed mostly around Izyum (southeast of Karkiv). The front that goes from Bakmut all the way south to Vuhledar had not moved at all since 2014.

[@chechennel4817]

Seems like everyone forgot what happened last year and why.

[@berdeter]

Questions : - - what are chances of survival of russian troups trapped in Kurks oblast once the rain, the mud and the winter will come - does that river freze completely in the winter ? That may change it's status of defensive line for a period ? - regarding the offensive in pokrosk what are chances russion troop get trapped by flank attacks oon that long bridgehead ? Will Russian logistics be effective enough with the arrival of mud if trucks on the few roads ar actively bombarded by Ukraine ? Not sure Russian positions are so comfortable...

[@danielstapler4315]

My guess is the river Seym doesn't freeze in winter. I googled it but couldn't get an answer.

[@DaniEles-rc7ij]

They are not trapped.. stupid.

[@tomk3732]

Relax. Ukrainians already re deploy from Kursk to save Pokrovsk signaling operation failure. They gave up only after a few weeks!!!

[@Notrusbot]

dreamer. With frosts still over a month away, Ukrainians won’t be able to stay in Kursk that long

[@jloos9959]

W@@W!!!!!! best site on youtube....no dumb jokes, or moronic sounds, or fund raising JUST PURE strategies and tactics. The world thanks you.

[@NAFO_MythicPlague]

Great video

[@asdfasdf-sx7wr]

bro it came out 15 minutes ago and u commented 4 minutes ago, the vid is 16 minutes long so u only watched 11, gotcha

[@Gametheory101]

Certified first comment!

[@sirkiz1181]

⁠@@asdfasdf-sx7wrbro hasn’t figured out 2x speed yet

[@31redorange08]

@@sirkiz1181 You haven't figured out that people comment before watching the video because then they feel special for some reason.

[@SlimShady-cz5oj]

Your content is gold ❤

[@mjl1966y]

Salients are weak (despite their strong interior lines) unless you have strong flank security and mobility to spoil a flanking counterattack against the salient. This is why Ukraine is going sideways in Kursk -- securing those flanks. I wonder what the Russian flank security situation is for the Pokrovsk salient.

[@guyman1570]

Currently by flooding the area with overabundance of foot soliders and vehicles (basically mix of infantry & mech inf), but the defense of the salient is not necessarily on solid ground, so to speak.

[@jerrybriardy]

South of the Povrovsk salient, Ukraine is in danger of encirclement at present. They will likely lose a heavily fortified area of at least 100 square kilometers and possibly a lot of troops. North of the salient, in the New York Area, Russia has made major advances also. Russia is launching attacks all along the eastern front. They are taking huge advantage of the lack of reserves the Kursk sideshow has left the Ukrainians.

[@asan1050]

Thanks for posting this video.

[@DemiGod_115]

Spent the last few hours catching up on some of your older videos and was just about to move on when this popped up in my recommended

[@Zarrus]

Great informational video! Unfortunately, the reality is so grim. Hoping Ukraine can continue this momentum.

[@markrivera8587]

U get my like and share

[@Gametheory101]

But subscribe? :tear:

[@maxim5690]

William -- I love your channel and your insightful analysis, including this video, with the sole exception of the comment around 8:40 that "the gains are unquestionably a consequence of the Kursk offensive," which is (imo) a very strong claim to simply throw out there without providing further arguments. From what I've seen, it looks like the resources Ukraine committed to Kursk could perhaps have made a small (but not trivial) difference in Russia's ability to progress toward Pokrovsk, but would fall far short of actually turning the tide in that direction. A number of other analysts and commentators I follow (for example Ukraine Matters, Andrew Perpetua, etc.) have also asserted that it is erroneous to draw such a strong connection between Kursk and Pokrovsk. I would also point out that part of the reason Russia's gains in the Pokrovsk direction have accelerated since the Kursk offensive is merely because Russia was spurred into action by the offensive -- which is not to say that weak Ukrainian defenses played no role, but just that they aren't the whole picture. It's true that this point does in a sense contradict my previous paragraph (since it argues in favor Kursk having impact on Pokrovsk) but the point here is not about the trade-off between the two in the balance of resources available to Ukraine, but rather that Russia's calculus changed in the wake of the Kursk offensive (as you later describe in the video). Maybe I misunderstood and this is actually what you meant by the comment in the first place -- if so, my apologies! But I see a lot of criticism floating around these days about how Pokrovsk has been part of the "cost" of the Kursk offensive, and I just think the framing is often inaccurate for the reasons I outlined above.

[@Jason-gq8fo]

I wouldn’t necessarily say Russias gains in the east are a direct result of the Kursk offensive. It is simply where they are concentrating all their offensive efforts, it’s expected they make progress. Although Kursk is probably making it a bit easier for them

[@accountnumber1234567]

They are a direct result, because had the Kursk offensive not happened, those troops could have been used to defend the path to Pokrovsk. Ukraine has a finite supply of men and materiel. That being said, they gambled on allowing small-ish losses in the east in exchange for Kursk and its dilemma, and I'm inclined to say it paid off.

[@Eric-qk3bk]

Head and shoulders above any channel on the Russian war on Ukraine.

[@kniazjarema8587]

4:40 As of today, Ukraine is ~40km away from the powerplant near kursk. Saw the picture of the guy posing in front of some sign.

[@tonyf3431]

it may have misunderstood the prompt, but I love the little green men image.

[@williamlloyd3769]

Totally surprised Ukraine hasn't targeted trenching machinery. Russia doesn't look likely to call on the residents of Moscow to dig emplacements in Kursk

[@Kevlar_soul]

Both sides target this equipment regularly. Normally it’s pretty far from the front lines so you don’t get drone footage

[@etienne8110]

You must have the capability to do so first. Small material hidden in warehoused deep in ennemy territory. And then gauge if it worth using the few long range missiles you have. Is it worth it to destroy a couple construction engines to maybe delay the defense on a chunk of land you have no intention to hold (not enough manpower)? Or would the same few missiles be of better use to disrupt logistic lines in the south where things aren t going well?

[@davidlium9338]

They probably are where it is possible.

[@albertfcb6654]

@@etienne8110 imo things are going well in the south (for ukraine). in that tempo gona take many years to take rest of donbas, and russian losses are enourmous (3:1 loss ratio in favour of ukraine). they have lots of times to find a way to stabilize the line even more (they are so fckn slow at gaining territory, the russians) and even reverse it. they are winning the most important war through bottom up innovation vs centralized planning ... the drone war

[@etienne8110]

@@albertfcb6654 losses according to ukrainian MoD... Beware of propaganda numbers. Furthermore just look at recent days, the south front is crumbling, making russian advance very fast. There is no "business as usual" in war, especially attrition ones. Things are stale for a long time, then the situation snaps quickly when one side reach breaking point. Lots of clues are pointing at Ukraine being closer to said breaking point than Russia.

[@airfight10]

you explaine like clear water everyone can understande and imagen whats happen if :

[@ADobbin1]

One thing you have to realize is that ukraine apparently did the kursk operation with less than 10k men and took maybe hundreds of losses while russia has expended 10s of thousands, possibly 100's of thousands to get the land they have taken.

[@laynejohnson1747]

You don't know what you're talking about

[@Number16-10]

​@@laynejohnson1747explain

[@comradeLucienne]

Hundreds of thousands? Now that you are just throwing in there. There is no way in hell, heaven or earth that this many have died. Also, Ukraine's maneuver warfare is just as if not more attritional as the trench warfare in Donbass. It's just that Ukraine doesn't admit it's casualties and the west (for obvious and good reasons) doesn't trust the Russian MoD to provide them, while they seem to trust Ukraine's military to do so for Russian casualties.

[@delanceysamuel4770]

@@laynejohnson1747 which part is wrong, Johnny bot? Ukraine took Russian land with lower casualties. Russia took Ukrainian land with high casualties. Simple as.

[@laynejohnson1747]

@ADobbin1 you don't know how many troops Ukraine used in its kursk offensive. Overall, Russia has had the more effective fighting force. More Ukrainians have been killed than Russians. What do you believe Ukraine will gain from occupying parts of kusk? They now have a new active front line that will eat up recourses. You are trying to push a silly point, and you are stating it as an objective reality. Ukraine invaded lightly defended land and you are comparing a 3 week offensive to a 2 year war. Give it a few months and your ideas won't be so relevant

[@zacz3975]

Excellent

[@CammeritzLP]

I see lines on maps in the thumbnail, thus i clicked on the video immediately

[@annehersey9895]

You are right about the salient! I have far less hair because I’ve been pulling it out for months!! When the salient looked like a long finger, Ukraine had it surrounded and all it needed to do was attack halfway up the finger and encircle the pocket-like the Allies did to the Falaise pocket. In WWII (although that pocket didn’t close fast enough because of the Patton/Monty pissing contest and Bradley didn’t decide fast en 14:36 )!ough

[@x-tremex-wing]

Only 15 minutes late today. 😅 love the content keep it up ❤

[@jeffbenton6183]

Yes! I'm not the only person who identifies a "sunk cost fallacy-fallacy"! I like to call it "converse sunk cost fallacy"

[@jabrueben884]

Putin and gerisimov facial expressions are priceless

[@colonelfustercluck486]

"Oh Put, can I give you a facial" quote from Gerisimov

[@gabriels2859]

Gerasimov's face creeps me out. I get the impression he has the same predilections as Lavrentiy Beria, except the targets are much younger.

[@General12th]

Hi Dr. Spaniel!

[@Youthure]

“Keep the arms flowing” deserves a visual of a dancer doing the “arm wave” 🌊💪

[@petermelville5524]

In Kirsk, AFU are pushing side ways along the north west to create a buffer zone. Elsewhere, they are blunting Russian vectors to slow their advance.

[@Salted_Pumpkin]

Am I going crazy or has the thumbnail for this video changed like 8 times

[@chrissheppard3023]

The Kursk offensive area doesn't fall under the Russian SMO therefore when Russian military units move there, their money drops by as much as 50% so they are resisting being sent there. It is also the reason Russia have officially called it a terrorist attack and put it under a committee headed by the FSB, who are responsible for the management of the conscripts. Also, they advertised for any civilian people to create the trenches at huge payments hence the speed of completion. There wasn't and still isn't any considered planning involved in the Russian response to the Ukrainian PLAN. And the latest thing to come out is the Ukrainian military have obtained huge amounts of secret information left behind by the FSB during their heroic departure of goodwill .

[@tomk3732]

@@chrissheppard3023 Ukraine has a plan??!

[@xway2]

@@tomk3732 🤡

[@PlatinumMadLad]

in this household we praise lines

[@alexiskiri9693]

About Pokrovsk; 5 months ago everybody was saying Chasiv Yar would fall in 3 days. They were wrong. It will take 6 months for russia to take Pokrovsk and surprises can happen on both sides. The fall of Pokrovsk is not a given.

[@RabbitShirak]

Especially with fall and winter heavily affecting warfare.

[@esjb1191]

Noone was saying that 5 months ago. What are you on about lol.

[@tomk3732]

@@alexiskiri9693 it is certain. The question is when. Same as with chasiv Yar, it will eventually fall.

[@Suav58]

14:00 As you hint later on this is 350km^2 of dense industrial and logistical capacity, yes, partly disused, but still, against 1200km^2 of almost empty, poor agricultural land. Costs of restoration of one against another to the former use are order(s?) of magnitude apart. Pokrovsk alone is capable of giving 6000 tonns of coal, heavy machinery (both building and refurbishment/restoration in a complex of 5 mutually complementary plants) , electric engines, construction prefab capacity (say, this concrete shelters along the line of the trenches)...

[@thepax2621]

Both sides are in a hurry to make gains, before the mud halts most movement 🤷🏻‍♀️

[@MoltenTitanium]

Thanks for the insights.

[@jackkelly4668]

Bro emphasising 'lines' lol love this creator. Dig the hole deeper humour 😂

[@JJ-fr2ki]

3:59 You held topography equal!

[@Corvinwhite]

I am legally blind thank you for the informative Contant you are very helpful in keeping an eye on how things are going we need to give Ukraine the aid they need by we I mean the worst Russia cannot be allowed to win their inflation was on the trust

[@raypitts4880]

i like that keep a eye on how things are going did a blind man....................

[@stooge389]

15:09 these numbers should not be ignored. That is a 10% net shift in polling. To a lot of people, that may look small; but a net gain of 10% in popularity in the polling world is a TECTONIC shift in opinion, for the United States at least. For one thing, the US is like 6,000 miles away from the front. It should not be understated how much it means historically that the US is giving Ukraine, of all countries, this much aid against Russia. It's a much more diverse and varied country than say, the Scandinavian countries, where the popularity of joining NATO skyrocketed from something like 20% in Finland to 80% after the invasion started. That kind of thing doesn't happen in the US. I don't think even 9/11 changed public opinion by that absolutely GIGANTIC net margin for action in the Middle East.

[@yesyo9109]

Ukraine's plan to lure troops from the Donbass to Kursk has so far failed. So Ukraine is currently a bit stuck. Retreating would mean losing face. Continuing makes no sense. So yes, you tell me.

[@Oberon4278]

Oh God there's gonna be so many lines on this one!

[@neolithictransitrevolution427]

How do you think the Harvest season demand for Diesel is going to mesh with the Russian military? Will food inflation be impacted by Kursk being occupied?

[@geoffgill5334]

Good point..thinking Russia is in for a long cold lean winter. Lost all the harvest in kursk, drought in other parts of Russia going to make for a short harvest.Add to this refinery losses , will there be fuel for even a short harvest? Electricity plants going up and due sanctions no technology or parts to fix them. Looks grim 😂😂

[@Inali097]

Would you mind citing your sources more consistently please?

[@peter25681]

When the Germans staged their Spring Offensive (Case Blue - 1942), they also captured much land in this very area. But, Stalin laughed and stated, "we have no problem trading land for time". Unless Ukraine uses this captured area to flank the Avdiivka defensive lines, I'm afraid their offensive will achieve very little - empty land

[@awf6554]

The strategic target is Putins control over the oligarchs and the Russian people.

[@terjeoseberg990]

At 9:53, “As of now, Russia has been working on the salient for almost a full calendar year.” Are you sure it’s not a cauldron?

[@terjeoseberg990]

It looks a lot like a cauldron to me.

[@philupson4561]

Eastern Panhandle WV USA stands with Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@jackthorton10]

Montgomery Alabama stands with Ukraine

[@stevengordon3271]

Some of the strangest lines on the US map involve the "Eastern Panhandle WV".

[@jackthorton10]

@@stevengordon3271 Really? they do?

[@stevengordon3271]

@@jackthorton10 Referring to the boundaries between WV and MD.

[@GustavoGplay]

Your videos remind me of another creator, called Historia Civilis, but he only talks about historical events, whilst you analize history as it's being written.

[@thomasjohnson2862]

Lord praise William Spaniel. Recently got to the end of the 1 hour 30 minute Taiwan video. I think I now just about understand how lines on a map represent costs, although it took a while.

[@markchappell4148]

Why will the PM of England just not drop it ? As Professor Doom , please. ?

[@janlindtner305]

Ucrania markax jaya pachaw jakañapa🍀❤👍

[@DackelDelay]

Can we take a moment to appreciate the stock images used? "snowball", "sitting ducks"... that's peak post-ironic comedy right here.

[@Katobase-u6t]

i wish more effort is focused on stopping dual use components into russia and stopping it's oil and gas sales.

[@tomk3732]

@@Katobase-u6t it's not possible. Russia has too much world support.

[@bobbitibob197]

How much does the coastline paradox come into calculating territorial gains?

[@dvsalo]

Why is Crimea marked as Russian territory on your maps?

[@jay90374]

🤔 Because it is, that's what was voted for by an 80% margin.

[@Asd-tk2if]

@@jay90374 Yeah and Maduro won the Venezuelan elections with 110% votes. For sure...

[@guyman1570]

​@@jay90374fake elections and held at a gunpoint

[@epicchocolate1866]

Because it de facto is. The Russians administer it and have built infrastructure and have military forces there.

[@johnstewart8032]

Amazing opinions. I have learned these are all Guesses or lies usually

[@chisank]

Spaniel!!!!

[@EmTee22]

?

[@johnhiggs325]

Ukraine doesn’t have to invest very much to hold what they already have in Kursk or to end up taking the territory below the Reka Same. Conversely, Russia has to keep expending a huge amount of resources in the east in an attempt to capture the supply hub before the rains come. If Ukraine can redeploy a large number of troops currently in Kursk, to the flanks of the Donetsk salient, Russia’s forward push west will be halted. This is exactly what is happening right now, imo. The salient is at great risk of collapsing rapidly. Almost all Russian armored forces are being decimated by artillery and drones before they can even engage.

[@TommyCrosby]

I don't see why Ukraine would want to go too far in Russia anyway. It would be bad if they become seen as the agressor even if it's ironic in the face of the Russian full blown invasion.

[@lastsong7159]

They'll probably stop once they have what's equal to Russia has.

[@mschwage]

What was the manpower advantage near Pokrovsk, before the Kursk offensive?

[@MayaPosch]

The assumption is being made that the troops and resources being used in Kursk could have been useful near Pokrovsk. This ignores that not all troops and resources are the same, and sometimes using a shield as a shield and a sword as a sword is better use of both. Yes, there is undoubtedly some overlap between the forces in Kursk and those around Pokrovsk, but the popular narrative that if Ukraine had simply stuffed more men into the trenches around Pokrovsk this would not have happened is terribly naive. Especially not when the problem is russian glide bombs smashing into said trenches, something which is better fixed by showing the White House that there are in fact no red lines to be found on russian soil. Ukraine is the first nation to invade the soil of a nuclear weapon-wielding nation, and with absolutely no response from the Kremlin to show for it. Meanwhile the russian progress at Pokrovsk has already petered out for the past few days, and AFU reinforcements have arrived after russia pulled some of its own forces away from the southern fronts. Since we're dealing with the fog of war here, and everything is OpSec & PsyOp-ed to the gills, nobody knows what is really happening, but we can at least make educated guesses based on what we can see and what we do know.

[@stephenlyon1358]

With respect, Ukraine is doomed.

[@MayaPosch]

@@stephenlyon1358 That's a funny way to spell 'Russia', Ivan. How much does this trolling job pay anyway? Two potatoes a day?

[@stephenlyon1358]

@@MayaPosch Cmon now, I said with respect. I come from a place called Scotland - I don't have any "skin" in the game as it were. What I do see is lots of Ukranians who will never return to their country, lots more who have died in the fighting. They have massive debts that they owe and have no real option for taking back their land.

[@InspiriumESOO]

@@stephenlyon1358 Russia has already lost the war. Russia is only trying to destroy Ukraine in a process. You are just delusional and can not admit the embarrassing defeat of Russia.

[@DementiaJoeGottaGo]

@@InspiriumESOO Enjoy the couple potato fields near the border while your main defenses are collapsing, NPC.

[@GenericUser-gi7cz]

Lines on maps! Finally!

[@FabiusPolis]

8:10 "Russia never captured Avdiivka despite a decade of efforts". Umm...this is fundamentaly wrong as until 2022 it was the eastern Ukranians fighting there and not Russia. Also, there was a cease fire because of the Minsk accords, so actual territorial changes were halted due to that. In this time, Avdiivka was transformed into a military fortress, nearly impossible to take in an assault. So there were no efforts from Russia even in 2022, there were no battles of Avdiivka at all until they started the flanking operation which finally succeeded.

[@sszorin]

I have even more SECRET information than you have. It was not the "eastern Ukrainians" fighting there but it was the Chinese.

[@hillbilly4895]

"Go Me!" ~ War

[@GRIGGINS1]

What has not been brought up is Russia has a very important problem that will get worst over the next few months. Ukraine has be destroying Russian Oil refining and storage capaiblites in the west of Russia. This will cause a lower and lower supply of oil over time. And no matter how many war machines you have. If you have no fuel for them. You just have very impressive paper weights. Logistics win wars. And broken logistices loses them.

[@Pawelgo-stasis]

What the Russia "should" do is retreat and stop the war.

[@jantzfitzgerald6115]

What a simpleton. Russia is winning . Their not going anywhere. Duh.

[@danyboon4851]

Dudeo, pal, matey, don't be so sure on why, Ukraine analysts say that the pokrovsk problems are due to terrible management , and it's supported with fact that Pokrovsk problems started before the Kursk offensive

[@allin4once]

I trust Russia WAY more than UKRAINE when it comes to defense lines. Russia used to suck at it, like UKRAINE still does. The difference is that Russia got their act together, Big Time! After Kherson, inside Ukraine, Russia has had very few of their defense lines breached in the last two years. Ukraine has very few of theirs stand. Russia has proven to be very adept at building robust defense lines, and Ukraine should watch and learn.

[@autobootpiloot]

Although I agree Russian most likely builds better defensive lines. It is however important to keep in mind that Russia overruns the Ukrainian lines with brute force Ukraine doesn’t have. It’s very much possible the Russian lines also don’t hold up to the Russian tactics.

[@Asd-tk2if]

Ukraine literally cannot take trench lines. Its nigh impossible to take without air coverage. Russia has an actual airforce so I expect them to be able to do close air support missions on Ukrainian trenches.

[@PhysicsGamer]

@@Asd-tk2if Then why don't they? We aren't seeing Russian helicopters assaulting Ukrainian trenches...

[@Asd-tk2if]

@@PhysicsGamer Helicopters? Really? And yes they are doing it. Glide bombs exist and they keep using em. Helicopters are useless when your opponent has actual guns. Hostomel can attest.

[@PhysicsGamer]

@@Asd-tk2if Glide bombs are the exact opposite of _close_ air support.

[@livewellwitheds6885]

im so glad you finally wrote a book! buying it asap

[@sahralhajilansana212]

Lies will not help in war, it do only for short time, do have any clue about Russia next move, you guys are not helping Ukraine at all

[@LonnieErnst123]

TM: 0:36 - Can you imagine the horror of being in one of those trenches while a Dragon Drone flew over the top of you casually dropping it's molten metal lava on your head?

[@frankjames4743]

Putin looks and acts, old and feeble.

[@legrandfromage6450]

No that's Biden

[@kurtwicklund8901]

This channel is superb. The end.

[@hummingbirdman]

What Ukraine took was Kursk countryside, not Kursk city, so there won't be any damage if Russia takes it back. Most the Kursk territory is unimportant. I'm guess Russia let Ukraine remain in Kursk to show that Ukraine poses a security threat to Russia and justifies conquering all of Ukraine. So in the end, Zelensky is helping Russia conquer Ukraine totally, not just a piece of it.

[@sszorin]

"Most the Kursk territory is unimportant." - If it is unimportant then why didn't Russia give it to Ukraine ?

[@bernarddavis1050]

That's right. One thing about Putin is, he's a pedantic legalist in everything he does. By invading Russia proper, the hohols have given him the perfect legal cover for some serious butt kicking of Ukraine.

[@tomk3732]

@@hummingbirdman correct.

[@blairdog2581]

What do you think is the most reliable source for news on this topic?

[@marcdc6809]

I find it hilarious that Russia starts digging in to defend against an invader as opposed to hitting them with chock and awe and make them run back to their mommy... It show what a clown Putin is and what a circus he runs...

[@tomk3732]

@@marcdc6809 it shows Russia is run by the military whom think.

[@marcdc6809]

@@tomk3732 it shows that Russia is scraping the barrel, and we definitely need to keep giving Ukraine the tools to keep this all going

[@biglittle4883]

«Шутки по поводу наших красных линий - это одна из наших красных линий. Если вы шутите, вы пересекаете другую красную линию и заставляете нас делать больше красных линий. Вы шутите, мы делаем больше. Тогда вы шутите больше, но мы просто больше красных линий и дальше. Тогда у вас кончились шутки, а у нас все еще есть красные линии, так кто же их смеется? Мы победим!» -Сергей Лавров