What Causes Earthquakes & Why Can't We Predict Earthquakes? GEO GIRL

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GEO GIRL

GEO GIRL

Күн бұрын

Can earthquakes be predicted? Why are earthquakes so hard to predict? In this video, I go over what earthquakes are, what causes earthquakes, and why they are unpredictable. Earthquakes are caused by the sudden slipping of faults beneath Earth's surface. Because faults are still and seismically silent before they slip, they are almost impossible to predict. The inconsistent rate of slip along individual faults also contributes to the difficulty in predicting earthquakes. The best thing we can focus on to reduce damage caused by earthquakes is preparation: better infastructure, evacuation plans, rapid alert systems, etc. Building and re-building cities to be earthquake-safe is extremely costly, but this is how we save more lives. We know earthquakes will happen, we know where they are most likely to occur, so all we need to do is build and prepare accordingly. I hope you enjoyed this video, and I hope you are safe. My heart goes out to thos of you affected by the Turkey and Syria earthquakes and I just hope we can learn from this and do better in the future.
References:
Exploring Geology Textbook by Steve Reynolds & Julia Johnson: amzn.to/3K9W6Ct
USGS Can you predict earthquakes?: www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-pre...
BBC “Will we ever predict earthquakes?”: www.bbc.com/future/article/20...
NPR: No, you can't predict earthquakes, the USGS says: www.npr.org/2023/02/07/115489...
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): cseptesting.org/
GEO GIRL Website: www.geogirlscience.com/ (visit my website to see all my courses, shop merch, learn more about me, & donate to support the channel if you'd like!)
0:00 Video Outline
0:49 What Causes Earthquakes?
1:32 Hypocenter vs Epicenter
2:27 Other Causes of Earthquakes
3:37 Fault Slip & Earthquake Unpredictability
5:01 Fault Rupturing & Earthquake Duration
5:31 Plate Boundaries & Earthquake Severity
7:14 Turkey and Syria Earthquakes
8:34 Can we Predict Earthquakes?
9:07 Earthquake Predictions vs Early Warnings
9:38 Earthquake Predictions vs Forecasts
10:00 Earthquake Predictions vs Probabilities
10:46 Why Can’t we Predict Earthquakes?
11:16 What about Preparing for Earthquakes?
12:24 Earthquake Precursors may allow Predictions
13:29 Using AI to Predict Earthquakes
14:32 Using AI to Predict Aftershocks
15:14 What should we do now?
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Non-textbook books I recommend:
Oxygen by D. Canfield: amzn.to/3gffbCL
Brief history of Earth by A. Knoll: amzn.to/3w3hC1I
Life on young planet by A. Knoll: amzn.to/2RBMpny
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Oxygen by N. Lane: amzn.to/3z4FgwZ
Alien Oceans by K. Hand: amzn.to/3clMx1l
Life's Engines: amzn.to/3w1Nhke
Tools I use as a geologist/teacher/student:
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Пікірлер: 101
@enesercin6182
@enesercin6182 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for mentioning this topic. I am environmental engineer from Turkey and I wish the knowledge we have about earthquakes in scientific and engineering field were put ahead of personal interest. Sadly lack of knowledge was not the case in our situation. The problem we face is much more complex and I would not wish for any nation to face similar problems.
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
I hope it gets better soon! I hate that we don't do what we know is necessary to prepare for these types of events. I hope we can move toward a world of putting human lives first instead of personal agendas and money... but unfortunately, I don't think that will be an easy shift :(
@speurtighearnamacterik8230
@speurtighearnamacterik8230 Жыл бұрын
Without wanting to delve into anything political, I had read in an article one of the reasons for wide spread loss of life was buildings made with concrete but no rebar reinforcement. If that is true, that surely played a part in so many deaths from collapsed buildings.
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
@@speurtighearnamacterik8230 Wow, that is terrifying. I can't imagine :(
@rodnee2340
@rodnee2340 Жыл бұрын
A terrible thing to happen. I wish Turkey all the best, and I hope you recover from this disaster. We need better building practices in earthquake zones. 🙏
@davidpnewton
@davidpnewton Жыл бұрын
​@@speurtighearnamacterik8230 politics and corruption are the keys here. Erdogan and his cronies sponsored a bill legalising all the breaking of building codes that had taken place over the last few years. That plus backhanders to allow the ignoring in the first place is the direct cause of the death toll being so large. Thousands of the victims died as a direct result of Erdogan's actions. He has blood on his hands and it's just the latest in a whole slew of appalling things he has done.
@Ozymandius_corn_maze
@Ozymandius_corn_maze Жыл бұрын
Very interesting. One thing that occurred to me is that the predictions of imminent earthquakes have to be correct the first time, or people are likely to ignore future predictions. It's a tragic and frustrating pattern in how the general population broadly views science.
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
Yes, I agree completely! It's one of the most frusterating things about comunicating science. People think, "Wait it's changed? It's been updated? That means it was always wrong." It is like with face masks before we knew exactly the degree of their effectiveness and then when scientists figured it out and tried to tell people to wear them they were like, "the scientists have changed their minds which means we should never trust them again." I mean of course not everybody feels or thinks that way, but enough people do to make things very dangerous and frusterating... :/
@pendlera2959
@pendlera2959 Жыл бұрын
@@GEOGIRL I hate how people view scientists as just a bunch of smart people sitting in a room and thinking about things and then handing out their personal opinions for the rest of the world to follow. It's like people think of scientists as the world's grandparents, only listened to because they're older and know more things in general, not because they have access to more specific and detailed information than the general public, the training to know how to use that information, and the knowledge of many other attempts that have been made to solve similar problems and how they turned out.
@NewMexico1912
@NewMexico1912 Жыл бұрын
I spoke to friends in Israel who say they felt this one. That whole region is an earthquake and tsunami hotbed. That’s why earthquakes were integral in biblical history as well
@joecanales9631
@joecanales9631 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for your video. Earthquake prediction was where I was headed about 50 years ago as my post graduate interest, but got sidetracked by an oil company. We were in an energy crisis and the money offered was not easily ignored. Doesn’t seem we have made much progress. By monitoring changes in the elastic properties across a fault (i e Vs/Vp ratio maybe) we might gain some insight. Changes would be small and mixing across complex faults likely makes it problematic. Since P waves, compressional, travel about twice as fast, their detection might give someone a few seconds to evacuate a building before the more destructive shear waves arrive (Vs/Vp=~.5).
@matthewhooper4686
@matthewhooper4686 Жыл бұрын
That was really informative. Great channel by the way.
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
Thank you very much!
@gingazaurus
@gingazaurus Жыл бұрын
Great video, thank you for sharing. I think every construction related regulator should know about this topic.
@ferrofaza3417
@ferrofaza3417 Жыл бұрын
I am a graduate student majoring seismology and I still learn something new from you. Cheers
@calinradu1378
@calinradu1378 Жыл бұрын
That was a highly instructive video and it looks like a glimmer of hope for future early warnings and early measures. I am truly honored to see a video based on a question I asked you!
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
Absolutely! Well it was a great question and I believe a very important one!
@rodnee2340
@rodnee2340 Жыл бұрын
I think the main problem with this tragedy was the buildings. They pancaked, and the results were devastating. And the worst thing is even in the US buildings are not designed to cope with earthquakes. It's a ticking time bomb.
@Dragrath1
@Dragrath1 Жыл бұрын
Yeah there are some building codes in particular regions where laws have been put in place but enforcing those laws is more difficult and more importantly costly (and in capitalism saving a few bucks now is regularly prioritized over saving tens of thousands to millions of lives regularly because the economic model is beholden to maximize profits on the next fiscal quarter to shareholders. Building cone regulations and their enforcement saves many lives which is why quakes in Japan or New Zealand with strong building codes tend to have far less loss of life despite many high magnitude Earthquakes. I'm especially worried about the Cascadia subduction zone its both a megathrust subduction fault with a strike slip component from the relative motion of North America and the Pacific. The key importance is the fault is generally very quiet until its not thus meaning it generally only produces large magnitude earthquakes. The Cascadia megathrust which last slipped on January 26th 1700 (Thanks to Japan recording the transpacific "orphan" Tsunami) was not recognized for a long time particularly in regards to building codes meaning most buildings in the Pacific Northwest are not built to handle the magnitude 8-9 Earthquakes the fault seems to have a long geological record of producing based on studying sedimentary records of disturbance.
@rodnee2340
@rodnee2340 Жыл бұрын
@@Dragrath1 if cascadia goes then most of the east cost is in big trouble. I don't think people understood this when they built.
@davidpnewton
@davidpnewton Жыл бұрын
​@@rodnee2340 east coast??!! What on earth are you going on about? Cascadia is the *west* coast of the United States and Canada.
@rodnee2340
@rodnee2340 Жыл бұрын
@@davidpnewton yea that was a brain fart I'm not in the US so I did actually mean the Pacific coast.
@williamhastie2772
@williamhastie2772 Жыл бұрын
Another terrific video Rachel.
@pendlera2959
@pendlera2959 Жыл бұрын
Something people don't consider is that even if there was a prediction, the nature of the damage earthquakes cause means there isn't much you could do with a prediction that you couldn't do without it. Sure, people could leave their houses and go sit on the street or an empty field for a few hours, and that would definitely save lives, but all the buildings, bridges, and other infrastructure would still be destroyed. Having earthquake predictions might actually result in more damage, since politicians would point to the existence of warnings to argue against building earthquake-resistant infrastructure. Whereas if you know your country is liable to earthquakes, but you don't know exactly when or where, then you have an argument for building resilient infrastructure which would not only save lives but also limit the structural damage that makes it so hard to recover from earthquakes.
@francoislalague
@francoislalague Жыл бұрын
Great video! Good topic to delve into with the recent events in Turkey. Well done.
@KerriEverlasting
@KerriEverlasting Жыл бұрын
I miss you geo girl. I'm still here loving your videos just so busy. We don't really seem to get earthquakes in Australia but I did feel one in Darwin many years ago. It felt a bit like the ground was swinging underneath me. I'm so sorry for the people in Turkey. I hope they can recover soon. Much love ❤️
@Alexnz935
@Alexnz935 Жыл бұрын
omg omg that photo of the doggo at 13.19 was not ready was not ready for a cute doggo to pop out its face amazing
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
Yea, that was my fav pic in this video as well haha
@jamesdriscoll_tmp1515
@jamesdriscoll_tmp1515 Жыл бұрын
My cat would come to me and cross his legs in the moment before an earthquake. The first time I didn't notice but now it's find a door frame.
@Alberad08
@Alberad08 Жыл бұрын
What a well made handy docu about the topic! I already knew about these, but it was quite entertaining to refresh my memory by watching your presentation. Thanks.
@paulkabrna345
@paulkabrna345 Жыл бұрын
From John Milne's pioneering work in Tokyo in developing his seismograph in the 1880's, we have struggled to predict with the accuracy we were hoping for. Perhaps the best thing we can do is help countries to build more resistant buildings to earthquakes. In 2010 a Mag 7 in Haiti created great loss of life whilst in New Zealand, another Mag 7 the same year no loss of life. Building regulations are key right now.
@myamazingjack8366
@myamazingjack8366 Жыл бұрын
At 13 minutes....well, pretty hard to tell if a dog got excited because an earthquake is coming, or the dog needs to go out because something he ate gave him the poopies. When in doubt, best let the dog out and worry about an earthquake later. I pretty much get a dose of Geo Girl video every day, I really enjoy her channel.
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
Thank you, so glad you enjoy my channel :D
@peterdore2572
@peterdore2572 Жыл бұрын
Awsome video and topic! Love and Positive Vibes to our Turkish and Syrian Friends :(
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
@peterdore2572
@peterdore2572 Жыл бұрын
@@GEOGIRL Speaking of supposed 'Predictions", a month ago I was pondering how it has been a while since the last HUGE Natural Disaster, and 'predicted' that there would soon be one. But just like said in this video, its not a Prediction if you cant tell where and when it will happen. Gosh, I couldnt even tell it was an Earthquake!
@meesalikeu
@meesalikeu Жыл бұрын
this was very helpful especially as i have visited turkey several times and love it there and have friends who were affected. i am still unclear about aftershocks though. i guess its just setting of the surrounding rock and faults after a slip.
@donaldbrizzolara7720
@donaldbrizzolara7720 Жыл бұрын
Rachel: I would certainly agree…extremely difficult to predict. Some very interesting observations, however, have come out of both Japan and China in recent years. Apparently they have documented a correlation between disturbances in ionospheric total electron count (TEC) and the timing of some recent large magnitude earthquakes. Yes, it seems today rather hopeless to predict a major earthquake, but I’m willing to bet that someday a technological pathway will be found that leads to a viable solution.
@TrickByMeTBM
@TrickByMeTBM Жыл бұрын
Thanks For Information
@colubrinedeucecreative
@colubrinedeucecreative Жыл бұрын
Interesting. I am glad you brough this up because I was going to look through your videos about similar topics, because I was a thought provoking video from Sabine Hossenfelder about how that Geothermal power is an untapped resource and I wonder what your take is on it? You say there is a lot of fields for Geology Majors, are there some that specialize in this and are working on it? Also something that you taught me about is that there is a lot of CO2 released when we dig. The more I learn about conversion to EV the Dirtier is sounds in negating the very thing we are trying to cut down on. Big costs of extraction in environmental impact. Is there any hope for Geothermal? Would we need to live closer to the core? What about in places like death valley where it is already warmer on average? Thanks! I would give you a virtual apple if I could. =)
@UsmanAli-yz5zc
@UsmanAli-yz5zc Жыл бұрын
Hope you'll be fine. Kindly make series of videos on mineral paragenetic sequence, ore traps and ore phases
@klauskarpfen9039
@klauskarpfen9039 Жыл бұрын
Rachel, have you seen Frank Hoogenbeets's channel? There is also the Dutchsinse channel, who predicted a major earthquake in his video from Jan. 20th 2023, based on a 6.8 Richterscale 610km deep earthquake in the asthenosphere in northern Argentina. Dutchsinse also looks at the antpodes, where the waves emitted from a hypocentre converge (kind of, if I understand him right).
@thaifreeburma
@thaifreeburma Жыл бұрын
A timely explanation, thank you 🙂 I note that you don't mention/refer to the tension transference associated with the relief engendered by an earthquake dislocation, nor how extensive (10s if not 100s of kilometre length/area) the fault movement can be - the Boxing Day 2004 Indian Ocean / Sumatran subduction zone fault being a prime example.
@shadeen3604
@shadeen3604 Жыл бұрын
Very sad situation thank you geo girl for using simple language to explain this earthquake
@christianhunt7382
@christianhunt7382 Жыл бұрын
Go Geo Girl! You rock!! 😁
@judychurley6623
@judychurley6623 Жыл бұрын
The thing to be gained by warning is human life. The thing to be gained by prediction is better building codes, and incidentally human life. You cant move the infrastructure away from the danger.
@craigsimpson9561
@craigsimpson9561 Жыл бұрын
Is there much research into "earthquake light" emitted prior to quakes? From what I recall, there were a few variations released at differing periods prior to the event, such as ionic emmisions from hyper-compacted rock combining with atmospheric imbalances to generate observable incidents of plasma (or at least that was the theory?) Then again, "all" we would need would be "just" an accurate and precise neutrino detector to locate pressure accumulation... too easy, right? ;-)
@RobertMStahl
@RobertMStahl Жыл бұрын
Dutchsinse does N excellent job predicting the bijection, or, bisected, principle of deep earthquakes followed by surface quakes with higher magnitude on a distribution over tectonic ridges. energy balance
@daveins1146
@daveins1146 7 ай бұрын
As you said that the Hypocentre is a point rather than whole fault plane because the fault doesn't slip all at once. Does the quakes produce due to the Hypocentre makes the other point along that Fault Slip too? Or Is the what we call aftershocks?😅 By the way, I still have confusion on the topic Hypocenter. Would you mind making a video on this topic?
@LimitedWard
@LimitedWard 7 ай бұрын
Is it not possible to embed large strain gauges into the ground along fault lines to detect an increased strain prior to a fault slip?
@jasonworks1454
@jasonworks1454 Жыл бұрын
I love this video. It's just what I needed. I'm still bitter and paranoid about nuclear testing on the west coast of the US by multiple NATO countries, and what/who they put at risk on purpose. Fracking and nukes are safe! No sink holes or terror.. or earthquake anxiety.
@rursus8354
@rursus8354 Жыл бұрын
The stress levels on the rock should be measurable, and thus be a tool for risk assessment. UPDATE: AI is not a measurement parameter, it is just an assessment tool of known parameters in complex cases, and in many cases AI is just good old-fashioned (early 20th century) statistics rebranded to sound like "super-phantastic."
@jjsmallpiece9234
@jjsmallpiece9234 Жыл бұрын
Good to see the UK is miles away from the edge of tectonic plates
@takashitamagawa5881
@takashitamagawa5881 Жыл бұрын
Excellent video. It is disappointing and concerning that the science of earthquake prediction has progressed so slowly over the last century, for all the efforts of great scientists. Populations continue to grow quickly in earthquake-prone regions, and the potential for loss of life increases.
@amoreokko4602
@amoreokko4602 Жыл бұрын
Thanks a lot for the amazing video. Just wanted to ask how is it possible for an earthquake's hypocenter to happen at a depth of 700Km where the lithosphere's max depth is around 100Km. Should not the slip occur only in rigid depths where stress release comes in fracture rather than a ductile behavior? 1:53
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
This is a great question! I wondered this as well until I researched for this lecture, I even put in a slide about it for my live class, but took it out for the video in the interest of time. So basically the brittle-shallow and ductile-deep behavior is the typically how things go beneath Earth's surface, but where you have a cold, dense oceanic plate subducting into the mantle, that changes a bit. The plate subducts at a deep angle when it is super old, cold, and dense, and this plate eventually melts and causes volcanism at the surface, but before it melts or becomes completely molten, it says hard enough to cause very deep brittle deformation as it subducts. The subduction of old oceanic crust is (to my knowledge) the only scenario that allows such deep faulting to occur. But again, it is rare compared to the lithospheric (0-100km depth) earthquakes. Hope that makes sense ;D
@1969kodiakbear
@1969kodiakbear Жыл бұрын
I like it. By the way, I have difficulty communicating because I had a stroke in Broca’s area, the part of the brain that controls speech. 2/8/2021 but I lived again. (My wife helped me compose this.)
@aldebaran4154
@aldebaran4154 Жыл бұрын
One earthquake type you missed we get here on Hawai'i island a lot, and that's the weight of the mountains on the crust. Most of our larger quakes are from Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa pushing down on the crust, the rest are volcanic/fault line types.
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
Oh wow! I didn't know about that kind, is the weight of the mountains pushing on old fault systems and causing them to slip, or is it just the weight of the mountains itself causing the earthquake? That is so interesting!
@aldebaran4154
@aldebaran4154 Жыл бұрын
@@GEOGIRL USGA says it's likely structural adjustments of the Earth's crust due to the weight of the mountains. Most of that type happen just offshore of Pahala from Mauna Loa's weight. The Mauna Kea weight quakes tends to be towards the north west of the mountian. The 6.7 quake in 2006 was from Mauna Kea's weight on the crust.
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
@@aldebaran4154 Wow, that is so cool (geologically), I mean in terms of living next to it I am sure it is scary and dangerous, but as a geologist who does not live near it, I am intrigued! haha :) I hope we continue to study and understand these quakes so we can one day predict them as well :)
@aldebaran4154
@aldebaran4154 Жыл бұрын
@@GEOGIRL I was born and raised on Oahu and I was at a dentist appointment in a Honolulu high-rise when the 1975 earthquake happened. I remember watching telephone poles swaying out the dentist window. Now I'm on Hawai'i Island and yep, felt earthquakes happen weekly. What's funny is you can tell the difference between the three types we have just by the way the ground moves. The Hilina Slump/fault line quakes have the back and forth ground movement, the weight quakes tend to be more of a bouncing up and down feel, and the magma quakes sort of combine the two. :D
@markcraig1389
@markcraig1389 Жыл бұрын
Earthquakes can be forecast just like the weather. They cannot be predicted. But if you watch the solar activity, charged particles from the sun play a huge part in earthquakes. Charged particles from the sun perturb the earths asthenosphere and much like waves bouncing back upon themselves form a singularity. The spike from the singularity initiates a “deep” earthquake. The deep earthquakes energy ripples up and away along plate boundaries almost equidistant between one another causing larger shallower earthquakes. Think of a standing wave in a wave tank only the wave tank is the plate boundaries. This all takes place over several days usually 7-10 days from the initial deep quake. There are generally less than a dozen locations where deep quakes occur. Plate boundaries, twisted as they may be can sometimes cast energy underneath plates and quakes may occur more inland. This is a new science and not fully accepted by academics. But give it time, it’s a HUGE step! I am still learning about it. I am not a geologist, however I am an avid basement geological enthusiast. Just remember “forecast” is the key word, not “predict”
@matthewgardenstheglobeboec7153
@matthewgardenstheglobeboec7153 8 ай бұрын
See Davidson et all, predicting eartquakes ( here) via Solar Tidal Forcing. @ Sunspot max/min.
@aresgalamatis7022
@aresgalamatis7022 Жыл бұрын
Also if it was miscommunicated from my comments, this was an excellent presentation introducing and summarising the topic at hand +1
@oker59
@oker59 Жыл бұрын
Why can't we predict Earthquakes? I'm tempted to say a, if not the big problem with Earthquake prediction is you need t know everything about the Earth - all the way down to the Earth's core. You need to know the oceans, at which point I can definitely bring in the Chaos theory argument. I think the reason why we can't predict the weather has been solidly established for awhile now - chaotic dynamics. If I'm right about needing to know everything going on in the Earth, every atom, then it's going to involve at least the oceans as well as liquid dynamics inside the Earth. Looking at fractal patterns in the rocks, from mountain ranges to streams and rivers makes it clear that there's chaotic dynamics involved, even if rock is generally hard. Because rock is generally a solid, you think you don't need to take into account chaotic dynamics. But, once again, the initial impression is misleading. The rocks are not these linear crystalline structures, but a jumble of layers(fractal layers). It's gravel From the chaos theory perspective, Earthquakes are fascinating!
@GEOGIRL
@GEOGIRL Жыл бұрын
I would agree and disagree about knowing everything about Earth. I guess if you wanted to predict exactly when where and how big an earthquake or weather event was going to be down to the second you would need to know everything about Earth down to the atom, but I feel like we can get to the point where we can give at least days warning instead of seconds warning for earthquakes, for which I don't think we will need to know everything about every atom on Earth. I don't feel like our predictions will ever be 100% accurate or precise but I think we can get high enough to save the majority of people that would otherwise be affected. As for weather, I think we are already there. For thunderstorms, tornados, hurricanes, etc. we can give people at least a few days notice and we are typically pretty accurate. There are definitely some large and destructive hurricanes and tornados that we haven't been 100% accurate on and it costs many lives, but for the most part, we have been able to prevent a lot of loss of life from predicting such storms days to weeks in advance, which I think is wayyyy better than what we can do about earthquakes currently. I think if we could predict earthquakes to a similar degree to which we predict weather, it would already be a huge leap forward :)
@oker59
@oker59 Жыл бұрын
@@GEOGIRL Just found an article that suggests they could solve the earthquake prediction problem! "Earth’s newly discovered layer could help scientists predict earthquakes" Mentions some layer of molten rock nex(or below) to the asthenosphere. Geologists had theoretically predicted this before.
@oker59
@oker59 Жыл бұрын
More Chaos theory - if the system has formed, and you can see it with your weather radar, then yes, you can predict that it's going to bring winds and maybe tornadoes if you can tell what type of system it is(Scientists can characterize different kinds of clouds, thereore, they can say the general nature of the system and it's general behavior). Obvsiouly, the system isn't going to just go poof and disappear. It's there and it's going to do what it is. These phenomenon have a certain period of being. So yes, you can get it down to a certain point. I just wanted to say that if Earthquakes are a chaotic dynamics phenomenon, then it is in the nature of chaotic dynamics that small scales and large scales are linked. So, you have to know the entire system.
@oker59
@oker59 Жыл бұрын
In terms of saving people's lives - I'd say people need to know the nature of where they are living, and engineer where they are living to deal with the inevitable. They should build a earthquake proof house, have a supplies ready. The housing in Turkey was clearly not built to deal with an Earthquake!
@aresgalamatis7022
@aresgalamatis7022 Жыл бұрын
@14:00 AI & ML == classical statistics with a bit more computational power to try slower algorithms ;)
@prithvirajdewan1417
@prithvirajdewan1417 9 ай бұрын
🎉লThe circle of fifths invented by Pythagoras is characterized by the application of homophonic related harmonized chords while the melody is ascending but proceeds in the exact opposite direction. Similarly, if we want to know the prediction of earthquakes, we have to go against all the efforts made till date.
@Narrow-Pather
@Narrow-Pather Жыл бұрын
Dutchsinse does a very good job of predicting them. The MSM and others do a good job of ignoring him, and that fact.
@aresgalamatis7022
@aresgalamatis7022 Жыл бұрын
I am still watching the presentation, but I am always puzzled about the desire to predict disasters. I do understand the peace of mind that certainty gives to people, but we are all living lives based on probabilities and make decisions based on the risk of our personal choices. To be more graphic, should a warning for a small asteroid hitting a million-sized city, 12 hours in advance, what actions can be taken to minimise the destruction against taking none? Same applies for earthquake predictions and at larger and smaller scales. In my view it is better to prepare to resist the destruction that will happen at some points, as well as the relief effort and escalate the budget for them depending on the expectation of destruction that will be caused. Instead, there is a religious obsession from the public about being lied to by decision makers to feel false certainty, which removes all our responsibility with the excuse that we were mislead, even though it was obvious and we took that risk... other examples is smoking, drinking and driving, not getting vaccinated or abusing medication. Sorry to bring up topics outside geology, but however interesting I find a field, I did not study 20 years ago, I am still interested in it :)
@stevenbaumann8692
@stevenbaumann8692 Жыл бұрын
Very well done! You missed your calling as a geophysicist.
@cavetroll666
@cavetroll666 Жыл бұрын
It would help so much if we could predict these better maybe
@pvtxtron
@pvtxtron Жыл бұрын
You're welcome
@brucewinningham4959
@brucewinningham4959 Жыл бұрын
GeoGirl -- I can understand the fact that Earthquakes are NOT yet predicable with the present technology. I don't know if it ever will be possible to predict Earthquakes but I feel like somebody needs to try. Do you know of a Video or Website that generally explains the technologies that someone has experimented with eventhough unsuccessful? Please understand I am merely curious to see what science has possibly considered?
@reidflemingworldstoughestm1394
@reidflemingworldstoughestm1394 Жыл бұрын
Fun Fact: 99.7% of the time people say epicenter they really mean hypocenter. The other .3% of the time they are talking about earthquakes.
@muratartvin9868
@muratartvin9868 Жыл бұрын
Can you help with a question: 35 years ago, all fault lines in Turkey had been mapped. But now, there are new maps, street by street. Are such precise maps possible, or are they designed to pull wool over the eyes of the gullible/make money/etc? Thank you very much
@markdavis8888
@markdavis8888 Жыл бұрын
Right from the start we don't acknowledge the energy that creates our planet's geology. Fission is happening right now under your feet. That is the major force behind the nature of our planet from plate tectonics to the magnetic field. Fission has the nature to cycle up to a high intensity and then fissile out. This matches what we see here on the surface of the planet be it Yellowstone or Mt Mazama. The idea that there is only nuclear decay heating the planet does not explain these "hot spots". If we don't understand the energy that causes the Earth's movements how could we possible predict it? We know nothing about our planet and we seem to refuse to understand what is happening right before our eyes. Deep Earth Nuclear Fission should have been a theory as soon as fission was discovered in 1938. We have never fully explained the incredible energy of the Earth and there seems to be a innate resistance to accept the existence of natural fission. Its been twenty years since anti-neutrinos were detected and hopefully this is fully explored. Learning to use fission intelligently is our only reasonable path to saving our planet from the over use of fossil fuel. It is the natural energy of the Earth.
@philochristos
@philochristos Жыл бұрын
Well, that is unfortunate.
@johnvl6358
@johnvl6358 Жыл бұрын
😎
@martianmurray
@martianmurray Жыл бұрын
I always wondered why you’d hear about dogs and other animals acting like they know it’s coming.
@yoichisenpai7670
@yoichisenpai7670 Жыл бұрын
There are many reasons the death toll that high . First of all politics about doing wrong thinks thanks to akp (our goverment right know hope next election they are gonna take down ) construction amnesity like ( when you built something illegally and then the goverment legalised that building etc extra building floors etc) also not listening to geologists and engineers about city planning construction restrics list goes on ... also im from turkey and studying geology in turkey so yeah many of my prof's warned the authorities and they simply do nothing 🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃
@pvtxtron
@pvtxtron Жыл бұрын
Suspicious observers on KZbin
@wildmanofthenorth1598
@wildmanofthenorth1598 Жыл бұрын
kzbin.info/www/bejne/mH-4gJSkrrCjr5Y Here is something else I watched today.
@wildmanofthenorth1598
@wildmanofthenorth1598 Жыл бұрын
You don't know Dutchsinse? Watch his method see something neat.
@eaterdrinker000
@eaterdrinker000 Жыл бұрын
I wish the earthquakes could have been used to target the despotic regimes in Turkiye and Syria! ::SHARKING INTENSIFIES::
@jasonworks1454
@jasonworks1454 Жыл бұрын
Considering the man made ones they were denying for decades, and billions in insurance fraud. There are reasons for not predicting things when you're rigging the real estate markets, and population movements.
@markmuller7962
@markmuller7962 Жыл бұрын
Just let AI to find seismic patterns and save lives
@ahmedstorage2998
@ahmedstorage2998 Жыл бұрын
#@Dutchsinse
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