What’s driving Canada’s ‘population trap’?

Canada is one of the fastest growing countries in the world (www.theglobeandmail.com/canad...) and in 2023, the population officially reached 40 million people. But economists are warning that there’s a price to pay for that growth - that Canada’s living standards and investments in infrastructure aren’t keeping up.
Matt Lundy (www.theglobeandmail.com/autho...) is an economics reporter for the Globe, and he joins the podcast to explain why Canada’s policies have led to a ‘population trap’ (www.theglobeandmail.com/busin...) and why Canada’s immigration rates have soared.
Questions? Comments? Ideas? E-mail us at [e-mail] (mailto:[e-mail])

[@BlueHawk001]

Canada does not have the infrastructure for the current 40+M, it has been designed for a maximum of 30M. A phenomenal amount of capital budget is needed to bring back the quality of life.

[@spicoli4217]

This country is honestly fucked

[@FMX8100]

Thanks JT

[@thebluntfeminist4105]

Why is it so taboo to not want Canada to become a 3rd world country, overrun by people from 3rd world countries?

[@cybtb]

Downtown toronto is getting way too overcrowded, and extra population does not seem to be bringing extra wealth or even enough taxes. Fail. Edit: Even worse, many immigrants can't afford to have kids either, so we are going to end up with an even larger population not having kids to support our programs and pensions.

[@TheVoluntariast]

The problem is that you think the Government can guarantee you pensions. It is a ridiculous idea. Take back responsibility for your own lives.

[@norwoodcooper3929]

Wherein hell have these so called experts. Been for the last four years

[@rishi505]

Justin T fail Canada . Only Unlimited International students and Refugees . No homes , high rent Shame Liberals . Resign

[@owendavis249]

Done with experts,total crock, total joke

[@alastairclarke]

Immigration lawyer here. Quick point of clarification: it is correct that Permanent Residents have the right to stay indefinitely; however, they do not have the right to leave Canada for an indefinite period and then return. They may be subject to an examination and their residency obligations may be an issue. This is a common misunderstanding.

[@MsLinda165]

Somehow I have a feeling this is rare, as it may be regarded as 'racist' so probably, examination won't happen. They know how to virtue signal.

[@lak1294]

Doug Saunders should acknowledge that his "maximum Canada" thesis, which is ideologically driven and doesn't sufficiently take into consideration the practical considerations of planning the growth in infrastructure, housing, and both public and private economy initiatives, has led our government to the current population trap and housing crisis we're in. Half-baked ideologically driven ideas that don't consider the myriad factors and complexities of such a monumental ambition, that take a hectoring, top-down approach (as the Trudeau government in particular, but the other levels of government also do), that don't do proper planning and consultation with multiple sectors that should have input (including private business and real estate players), and that don't put necessary government funding in place have set Canada on a path that will lower our standard of living for years and be extremely hard to get out of. What a mess.

[@menguardingtheirownwallets6791]

Crime is skyrocketing. Almost everyone I know has experienced a situation where a car has been stolen close to where they work or where they live. I drive an old 2008 Toyota but even those are now being stolen for the parts that people need to keep their old cars working, so I now install 2 anti-theft devices just to keep my old 'beater' from being stolen by thieves.

[@thebluntfeminist4105]

Look who we're letting flock into Canada by the millions

[@AHR1130]

He said very easy to bring foreign workers!!!!, but he is kidding, it is not easy to get a job from abroad.

[@frankslide3532]

If we cant afford new Canadians, for the first time, why is that?

[@thebluntfeminist4105]

Because there are too many coming over too quickly and the quality of people we're bringing over are the people no other country will take

[@ianleslie6971]

How many people who are counted as Canadian, who hold Canadian passports actually live offshore. These passports of convenience are counted as part of the 40,000,000

[@CanadianFox1867]

No, the population is the number of people currently living in Canada. The number of citizens is different. I think quite a few Canadians are living abroad.

[@ianleslie6971]

@@CanadianFox1867 I have tried searching and verifying this before. Where would I find the statistics on this. Census Canada has not allowed access to me. Or in some cases a pdf download that is not viable for me. Another consideration is the support that is demanded by Canadian passport holders in other countries

[@rajastylez]

What evidence was there that we have a labour shortage?

[@neilirvine7129]

Great coverage. It would be great to have more detail on the shortfall in business capital investment. It’s usually euphemistically referred to as “not enough”, but this is very unclear about exactly what is needed. There is usually a bottleneck in particular sectors and types. For example, is our technology sector the most effected? Or our forestry and mining, etc? Do workers need more skill training and laptops, or do we need more heavy industry like steel plants? Would we be better with a national physical digital infrastructure plan or by creating pooled common software platforms? On the case of low-wage TFWs and permanent residents, we seem to undervalue the contributions they make because their earnings are below average wages. However, we do ultimately have a bigger economy and lower prices as a result of the labour, and many higher-skill jobs are funded by these workers. For example, a high-earning farmer can keep their farm, buy machinery, and spend locally. If we closed farms by reducing TFWs, the farmer would lose their job along with the TWFs. The argument would be that the farmer would simply replace TFWs with machinery and keep going, but this is unlikely as it’s unlikely the farmer has the capital pools to do so. The overall impact of eliminating low-wage jobs would simply be to shrink our sectors, specifically agriculture, retail, hospitality, education and childcare, manufacturing, personal care workers (eg for the elderly). It’s not obvious that our society would be better off by having less of these industries, especially childcare and eldercare. Again, it’s low-wage jobs in these areas that enable our working age population to maintain high-skilled work. High-wage jobs are very closely tied to low-wage jobs - there’s a very high chance that reducing low-wage jobs would ultimately decrease labour participation. Some say, again, that low-wage workers can be replaced by machines, but this is not clear for every industry. Japan, for example, is technologically advanced and has strict limits to immigration, but even they have ultimately relied on TFWs to fill gaps. There is also very little discussion to the extent immigrants and TFWs directly subsidize our public services. Ontario, for example, decreased domestic university tuition by 10% in 2019 and froze funding at that level ever since, despite high inflation over the last couple years. A large part of filling the gap was a desperate scramble by universities to increase foreign students, who pay 3-5 as much tuition and without matching public funds. Even so, 10 out of 23 Ontario universities are in deficits this year. The province continues to be adamant that they will not receive more funding. This has only been possible so far because of the foreign students and has been a benefit to taxpayers. It is also interesting to note that while there is advocacy for increased capital investment from businesses, most of our housing policy solutions has been to prevent investment. The vast majority of our housing shortage is due to artificial restraints on housing supply by municipalities (primarily) and provinces (secondarily). Yet the pressure on the federal government was to actually turn away foreign investment in the form of a ban on foreign buyers. Housing supply is entirely in our control (through provinces and municipalities) and unrestricting supply would not even be a financial measure. Some say that Toronto’s declining population is from a lack of demand for living in the city, but it’s more likely the result of high prices due to regulatory restrictions causing artificial shortages in housing. This is in turn a barrier to the high-paid jobs in Toronto and a decreased living standard for those forced to commute. Finally, it’s never really validated if we need to maintain a large productive population to support retirees as the federal government claims. Starting now, we will have 500,000 retiring per year and a natural replacement under 200,000 per year. Dec 2023 had 20.3 million employed persons (in all categories including part-time) in Canada, so it will decrease by about 1.5% per year. Extend that 20 years and we could have 70% or less of the workforce we have now (apx 14.2 million), while our over-65 population goes from 7.6 to 10 million. In other words, from apx 3:1 to 1.5:1 workers to retirees. These retirees will demand income supports, healthcare, and protections to stay in their homes (in other words, to continue to block housing supply). If we simultaneously undermine labour force participation by eliminating low-wage jobs, it’s likely our labour force participation would be even lower - potentially putting us closer to 1:1. Average healthcare costs alone for those 65+ are around $20,000 per year on average, which excludes long-term care, pension, etc. Long-term care, when it’s needed, can get to $100,000 per year.

[@Dan5482]

You are obviously benefiting from this atrocious system.

[@user__100]

Canada uses Newcomers to pay pensions of old Europeans through tax

[@user-pz3me9bm3s]

Most pensions are being paid by tax from massive multi billion dollar corporations owned by those old Europeans. Not by the Indian Uber driver

[@rishi505]

Justin T fail Canada . Only Unlimited International students and Refugees . No homes , high rent Shame Liberals . Resign

[@phoenix0110]

Most of new immigrants are just use Canada to move to US. Better pay and warmer and cheaper housing.

[@MsLinda165]

Good! Let them be USA's problem.

[@sarahmurray2279]

im canadian and id go too if i could. i have friends who are born canadians who have left for USA and some latin american countries. Those with options are making moves. smart to get out honestly.

[@kristinashepherd3003]

If you actually want to understand economic terms like Population trap I suggest the KZbin channel Economics Explained . This is actually not an obscure term and this podcast is actually terrible at explaining this .

[@CanadianFox1867]

I don't care about the new people, every good human being is welcome, but can we please integrate them properly. If we cannot, then we need to reduce the numbers. I honestly don't even recognize the country anymore in many places.

[@rishi505]

Justin T fail Canada . Only Unlimited International students and Refugees . No homes , high rent Shame Liberals . Resign

[@thebluntfeminist4105]

You should care about new people, they're the ones who are making your country look like their country

[@TheVoluntariast]

The central planners do not want imported people to integrate. It is much easier to control the slaves, I mean "Canadians" if everyone is not unified and has different goals.

[@MrAlexDelarge]

Right, we weren't building sufficient numbers of homes even before net migration doubled, now the problem is more acute. And it's being felt outside of housing, too. Take a drive down the 401 and compare it to 20 years ago, 15 years ago -- Toronto now ranks among some of the most congested cities globally.