GMO - NEGATIVE 40% Return for US Stocks to 2030!!!

[@DonaldnotTrumip]

During a bear market, professionals typically move to cash early, short the downtrend, and wait to pick up great companies at bargain prices. Amateurs, on the other hand, often hold on stubbornly, hoping each rally signals an end to the downturn, and eventually sell when losses become unbearable.

[@JakePeterson-n9d]

I've been holding cash for over a week now, and to be honest, it's getting pretty dull. I think I'll buy a single share of something just to keep myself engaged and on top of my game.

[@AverageAmerican-m2m]

Having an investment advisor is the best approach to the market right now. I was going solo without much success until my wife introduced me to an advisor. I've achieved over 80% capital growth this year, excluding dividends.

[@billclinton-f8n]

Could you recommend who you work with? I really could use some help at this moment please.

[@AverageAmerican-m2m]

There are a handful of CFAs out there. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I’ve stuck with ZAREEN GRACE CHURCH for some years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s known in her field-look her up.

[@AlbertGReene-p8w]

glad to have stumbled upon this, curiously inputted her on the web, easily spotted her consulting page and was able to schedule a call session. Ive seen commentary about advisers but not this phenomenal

[@Germain_Re]

I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2025, we'll start to see more market diversification. Considering the performance of stocks lately it is safe to say the stock market is the best smart investment out there. Hope others agree.

[@garnold-l5p]

Of course, you are not alone.. However, if you are investing in the stock market and you are not well versed, its advisable to work with a financial advisor who is an expert to guide you through the process. I have been making more with less risk since i started working with one

[@williamJohnsonq8f]

I totally agree with you. I started out investing on my own too and lost quite a bit. After the 2020 crash, I managed to pull out about $160k. I then invested that money with an analyst, and in just seven months, I made almost $580,000. It's amazing how having the right guidance can turn things around!

[@melodysmithSTL]

That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this manager for my dwindling portfolio. Who’s the professional guiding you?

[@williamJohnsonq8f]

Judith B. Richards a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.

[@melodysmithSTL]

I just looked up her website on google and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I have sent her an email hope she gets back to me soon. Thanks

[@mathewwilson9776]

To put this 7-year projection in perspective, it is nearly identical to the 50% decline from the top of the 2000 bubble through the 2008 bottom. SP500 earnings are $200 as of Q3. If earnings grow at 0-3-5% over 7 years we end at $200-245-282 and a 40% index decline would put you at 19-15-13x earnings. So these projections just seem to be a plain reversion to median multiples assuming inflationary growth.

[@mathewwilson9776]

So if I can do 5th grade math and I buy some bank stocks, am I qualified to open a fund? 🤣

[@mjs28s]

@@mathewwilson9776 That and add in being a perma-bear.

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))))

[@tanyabischoff]

I've always been fascinated by investing, but when I tried stock investing early this year, it hasn't been as successful as I expected. However, I keep seeing good news about the stock market. What are the best strategies for less risk and more gains?

[@garnold-l5p]

The importance of mitigating risks might be why many investors are turning to advisors for guidance.

[@Simeonedavis]

I agree.Based on my personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $385k in a well-diversified portfolio that has seen exponential growth. It's not just about having money to invest in stocks; you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have the strength to hold on during market fluctuations

[@ryannemdjen]

This is incredible. Could you recommend who you work with? I really could use some help at this moment.

[@Simeonedavis]

My CFA, Laurel Ann Watkins, is a renowned figure in her field. I recommend researching her name online; you’ll find all her credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, she is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

[@ryannemdjen]

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.

[@damchi25]

Grantham is bearish? I'm shocked! 😆

[@Value-Investing]

hahaha

[@florin9868]

good one :D

[@MatthewMTP-fl2i]

The stock market and economy at large over the last 15 years was a result of 8+ trillion dollars in FED Quantitative Easing. I find it highly and mathematically unlikely the FED will do that again. When QE was launched en masse back in 2008 inflation was not a problem. There was actually some minor deflation occurring at the time. If the FED were to restart QE again under current conditions, and drive real yields on bonds deeply negative once again, the FED will quickly find itself the exclusive buyer of all government bonds. The Federal deficit is around 2T a year but the Federal government is rolling over maturing debt meaning there are 7+ trillion dollars worth of UST sales per year. There is zero way the FED can print and buy 7 trillion dollars worth of government debt every year without causing double digit inflation.... ... I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 210k to a decent 732k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Aldona Šabanienė’s, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[@Chrik62]

I have seen a lot of Positive posts about Aldona Šabanienė. Please how do I reach her?

[@MatthewMTP-fl2i]

She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.

[@MatthewMTP-fl2i]

@AldonaSabaniene.

[@chrisperkins302]

Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary.

[@RobertEMorales]

The process of trading can be complicated when you have limited knowledge. However, with the right strategy and setups, you can be successful. That's the whole point of investing.

[@ziksy6460]

I do hope people watch till the end because Sven's final message is key. It's about doing ok, always, regardless of what the market does. I've been watching this channel for 4 years. But only recently do I truly understand this mindset. And I think it's because I've accumulated enough wealth that I now I have something to lose. Yes, this mindset does lead to missing stuff like Nvidia and Bitcoin. But it also means surviving major crashes without getting wiped out. People misunderstand. Sven or Buffett aren't trying to predict when the next crash is. They're simply trying to position themselves so that they're ok when a crash inevitably comes - whether that's tomorrow or in ten years.

[@MarekPietraszczyk]

What’s GMO?

[@i_like_beer-o2f]

Do you think that covered call ETFs might be a decent way to hedge against overvaluation and maintain some returns in a portfolio?

[@FobosLee]

It’s hard to hold low PE high FCF companies for years with 15% return when some quantum stocks shoot up 10x in a month with almost no practical application and minuscule revenues.

[@NOXkaz]

Tough to play musical chairs. You're playing an easier game

[@Slide61]

Let's not forget we are down to around 3000 publicly held companies (from over 8000 25 years ago). All that 401k money is concentrated in fewer and fewer companies. Not sure where this train is going but it sure looks like a cliff.

[@Value-Investing]

good point...

[@mire5234]

Can you look at the renewable stocks like brookfield renewable or northland power?

[@hammer49946]

It's hard to believe AI will change the world when companies are being out smarted by the bots and the comments are 50% spam.

[@Value-Investing]

hahahahaa

[@6upsidedown]

Hi Sven, I look forward to Total Energies analysis. I bought them in March 2020 during negative oil. I chose Total because risk reward seemed good and management seem to be excellent capital allocators.

[@jonnes__4657]

🗽 Stay in quality and in value... EASY .

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@fernandomizobuti]

Here in Brasil we can find p/e lower than 5 in stable companies, dividend yield around 10%, FCF yield of 15% or 20% in stable mature companies. Not bad

[@jonathankrimer]

Yes but isnt the currency value dropping faster than the gain?

[@fernandomizobuti]

​@jonathankrimer it depends on the company, some companies have their revenue in US dollar and the expenses in Real, like Vale, Suzano and others. It's not easy for foreigners to invest here, but it's rewarding. Brazil flirts with the abyss frequently, but never jumps like Argentina or Venezuela have done.

[@baigani0]

sorry for the stupid question, but what does GMO means , what is the abbreviation behind letters?

[@guyshipman6646]

GMO LLC (also known as GMO and Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC) is an American investment management firm headquartered in Boston. The firm takes a contrarian investing and generally bearish approach to the markets and holds the views that assets will revert to the mean.

[@rishabhnair8399]

genetically modified foods :P

[@SigFigNewton]

They won’t revert to a mean. Increasing wealth inequality increases valuations.

[@mathewwilson9776]

Get the Money Out

[@problemslayer3538]

​@@rishabhnair8399and foods begins with O .......you bell end

[@chrisonthemove]

Investing into single companies of emerging markets is an own story. Especially looking to accessibility and costs. Sven, I was wondering what your view is on emerging market value etfs. There is at least two emerging markets with value focus available for EU customers (UCITs conform). Biggest one is ticker 5MVL with price to cashflow of just 3,2 and dividend yield of 4,8%. Could be an option for value investors who want to invest also into emerging markets...

[@msbwong]

I only watch sven from time to time. Does anyone knows if he beats the market over the last 10 years?

[@Value-Investing]

just shy of it since the model portfolio launch in 2018, but over cycles I should do better as value investing does...

[@evannia4753]

Hi Sven, would you consider doing a video on Devon energy? It looks like a good value but I’m curious about your opinion

[@Value-Investing]

have to make an analysis and check it in detail, will soon..

[@Never-ending_]

Hey, Sven! If we are in a bubble, what time of history do you think this bubble resembles the most? I think this subject will make for a great video as well.

[@Value-Investing]

discussed here

[@tockpro105]

Late 1999! 💯 For the Nasdaq anyway.

[@junco4269]

What do you think of AMR?

[@Nicotrinchese]

Hi Sven, I'm not really into Options to protect my portfolio, what do you think about SQQQ??? And how much to buy for every 100k of portfolio?

[@Value-Investing]

that is a daily product, made to go to zero...

[@Nicotrinchese]

Correct! So if I learned good from your videos, to edge the portfolio I might go more into Gold, or Cash or options. Correct me if I'm wrong of course.

[@radosval]

Look at the long term chart of SQQQ. It's incredible!

[@mathewwilson9776]

The best way to hedge your portfolio is to forget about prices and to hold businesses that will compound regardless of what the market does. Options are expensive and their value decays with time: you need to get the timing right. Cash will be eroded by inflation. Gold is just a speculative stone. Example: if you can get a 7-10% stable dividend from a good business trading at 7x earnings that grows at 3-5% (China is full of these), you don't really care about market fluctuations. The dividend plus some growth already compound at double digits, which already exceeds average market returns. If the multiple normalizes to 15x in 10 years say, that's another 7% cagr for a 15-20% total. Buy a few of these over time and if the market re-rates just one every few years, you have a nice portfolio compounding at double digit rates no matter what.

[@pablopiquante3227]

Good observation!

[@simonvandersanden7624]

Can you maybe cover Proximus? Is it a value trap?

[@bumblebee9288]

I love a prediction 😂😂😂 what we all know as investors is we can all predict the future 😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))

[@pongop]

I predict that I won't be able to predict the market

[@StanislasHuynhCong]

It would be interesting to look at the moving average of Shiller PE (instead of the overall historical average) to see how the ratio flutuates across decades

[@jonnes__4657]

Mean in the modern world means 20 to 25. .

[@Value-Investing]

still high now compared to previous...

[@postenskakutia]

What is GMO

[@Value-Investing]

value investors that have been around for a long time...

[@postenskakutia]

@@Value-Investing thanks but what means every letter? :) G M O?

[@robhills2613]

​@@postenskakutiaWikipedia: GMO LLC (also known as GMO and Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC) is an American investment management firm headquartered in Boston.

[@rubenschipper5511]

Can it not just be that the accounting rules are not well suited for today's economy?

[@davidkoba]

Sven, it will not be negative if they continue to print money.

[@TurgayAdnan-h5e]

Web3 Infinity has the ability to disrupt the market. Can't wait to see where it goes!

[@user-vj8uv8hp2x]

In the GMO sheet of 2021 they forecast -7% for the US stocks. It was +50% next 3 years 😂

[@Value-Investing]

:-)))

[@caketheduck2008]

It doesn't mean they were wrong. For example, if the market is down by more than half in 2025, their prediction comes true. This applies to many things in life, there's no certainty for something that is changing and evolving continuously.

[@xxIFNTxx]

Seems 99% of finance youtubers are extremely bearish. Could mean a facerip melt up like we have never seen in 2025.

[@Hedgeflexlfz]

Yep

[@abdulrahmany4315]

Asian market specifically China are depressed and already in crisis and may be they will entire a bull cycle. Cloud you do video about Chinese market ?

[@TheBigShort11]

I sold 50% of Portfolio and shifted to bonds and cash.still have a 7 figure sum invested in stocks

[@Agatha.wayne0]

Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve.

[@SandraPhilips-p8m]

I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.

[@SandraPhilips-p8m]

Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with “Jessica Dawn Walters” for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.

[@InfinityIsland2203]

Meh. This is not a bubble or the everything bubble. This is a world drowned in debt and inflation turning into global hyperinflation. What Swen must be saying is stocks may be down 40% adjusted to inflation which means stocks will still outperform cash by hundreds of times seeing that money printers havent turned off since GFC

[@Value-Investing]

good point!

[@afonsodeportugal]

Ah, yes, another bold prediction from the oracles of doom. Maybe they get it right this time! 😜

[@Value-Investing]

time will tell :-)))

[@WealthyChronicle]

GMO’s calling for a 40% loss in real returns, but the stock market has proven them wrong so far! Is the market just too unpredictable? 📊💥

[@bumblebee9288]

Oh no the world is going to end tomorrow i guarantee it as i predicted it 😂😂😂

[@SigFigNewton]

The takeaway is risk reduction. It’s a message of responsibility and prudence.

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@andreasjanen6617]

Return is not important by the way ....

[@Value-Investing]

also good point...

[@nerdboy8605]

What the heck is GMO?

[@SigFigNewton]

Genetically modified oligarchs?

[@Value-Investing]

value investors..

[@raysonlogin]

@@Value-Investing Genetically modified organizations

[@David-v6y5z]

Hit $113k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months with a $16,500 start up capital.

[@Seth-j2l3o]

I would really love to know how much work you did put in to get to this stage.

[@David-v6y5z]

Riding the market wave entails understanding the market volatility, mary mcDonald trading strategy has been doing an awesome job reviewing the charts, enabling me to capitalize on the volatility via day=trading making me to understand the best investment approach to follow.

[@DavidBaek-Hyun]

Wow this is not the first time I have heard about this lady Mary Macdonald and her amazing skill set, I heard she even takes 15% commission on her trades but I have no idea how to reach her.

[@David-v6y5z]

She's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name

[@David-v6y5z]

Mcdonald912 Thats her user name

[@ShawndaAlmanza]

Web3 Infinity is gonna explode anytime soon

[@koufax174]

🙏🏼

[@Value-Investing]

:-)

[@GermanHodl]

Go to China 🇨🇳 or Germany 🇩🇪 Bro 😃🙏👊

[@Value-Investing]

will do

[@CeciliaVanderhoef]

I always look up your videos for update! Our government has no idea how people are suffering these days. I feel for people with disabilities not getting the help they deserve. Thank you Mrs Linda, imagine investing $1000 and receiving $5,300.🎉🎉

[@VijayKumar-q1d1l]

I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...

[@VijayKumar-q1d1l]

Trader Linda strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started

[@OnomeJking]

please educate me, I've come across this name before, Now i'm interested

[@OnomeJking]

Please is there any link or information about her, how can I reach her?

[@DavidBryan-h4j]

SHE'S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS USING THE USERNAME.

[@abvincent12]

In other words, buy very boring, highly stable, low volatility dividend stocks.

[@Value-Investing]

that is what they are suggesting, yes...

[@laurentgraphiste6666]

Just look at WBA, HSY, IEP, and many dividend stocks that wer stable for many decades and now are almost bankrupt and 80% down... don't think dividend stocks are safe either...

[@karsinds]

Just buy value-stable-blue chip companies at good prices, like JNJ, KO, PEP, PFE, VZ, NKE... and the future drawdowns will be of no concern.

[@DuyguCuneyt]

Web3 Infinity by Web3 has the capacity to upend the market. Looking forward to where it goes!

[@ALLENPollack]

Being a part of the Web3 Infinity revolution excites me. Let's change the world!

[@SammyDayton-c8z]

Web3 Infinity is gonna explode anytime soon