Gold Price in a Recession: Up or Down?

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Where will the gold price go during a recession? Most people seem to think that an economic downturn should coincide with gold price going up. But we provide a detailed look at the gold price in a recession and find out that’s not always the case.
Gold prices are naturally impacted by many factors - manufacturing, GDP growth, real estate prices, inflation, yields etc. Any good gold forecast should keep them in mind. At this moment in time we even have several other factors affecting it - the U.S.-China trade war and Brexit. The combination of all this has increased the chance of a recession to 31.5%
Many investors and traders monitoring the situation feel that a recession should cause a massive influx into gold, the perennial safe-haven asset, thus boosting its price. You can find many a gold price forecast touting numbers like $2000, $3000 and even more.
Nothing is impossible but a gold analysis relying only on one single factor - the emergence of a recession - would be limited. Just like the gold price in 2019 has shown us - it’s always the combination of all factors that governs the trend, not one single event or piece of data.
Hit the like button if you enjoyed our Gold price in a recession: Up or Down video and make sure to subscribe to the capital.com channel for more gold technical analysis, as well continued coverage of the gold price in 2020.
#Gold
#GoldPrice
#Recession
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[@silversurfer702]

I have been waiting for this exact video. Thank you!!👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼

[@Capitaltrading]

Happy to deliver Silver Surfer :)

[@JA-eq5um]

are you buying jnug

[@3-Kashmir]

Gold will forever be the standard!

[@elvismark5172]

I believe I should watch a video on "How to survive the current recession" given the state of things. Actually, it's a complete failure. The fact that some people could still earn more than $$$k in a short period of time astounded me. If that's still the case, please explain how.

[@aaronbritzly3154]

This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.

[@robbyarch4346]

The best market strategy at the moment is working with a respected investment coach. I've been in touch with a coach for a time now, mostly because I lack the depth of understanding and mental toughness to deal with these ongoing market conditions. Not because you're doing anything wrong, but because you lack the understanding necessary to prosper in a bad market.

[@AnthonyHart34]

@@robbyarch4346 Due to the significant falls, I need advice on how to rebuild my portfolio and develop more successful tactics. Where can I find this teacher?

[@robbyarch4346]

@@AnthonyHart34 In fact, I'm not sure whether I'm permitted to say this, but I'd suggest searching for "sharon lee casey" as she gained a lot of attention in 2020. She is both my coach and the manager of my portfolio.

[@alexanderjames3043]

@@robbyarch4346 I can see why She is so busy; her career and outstanding qualifications are Fascinating! So I immediately copied Sharon's complete name and pasted it into my browser.

[@Furlong157]

My local gold store said if gold goes up above $3500 they won't be able to stay in business. Because people won't have the money to buy gold and everyone would want to sell

[@shauny9149]

From that last graph you showed us, it looks to me like Gold is ready for another move higher. It looks like its going to hit $2000 on the next move

[@Capitaltrading]

If it does indeed go up, then we'd agree, $2000 looks like a reasonable target for a prolonged uptrend if many people and institutions pour into the gold market. But this market needs a catalyst for it to have a strong uptrend. Whether it's a recession, something else, or a combination of many factors remains to be seen.

[@billrundell2097]

The price of Precious metals has been manipulated for 30 years. In a recession, PM will still be manipulated to what ever JP Morgan associates want. Charts and graphs of the past are meaningless.

[@Capitaltrading]

@@billrundell2097 Not even JP Morgan can manipulate all of the commodity markets at the same time. Too much of one direction usually causes a disbalance.

[@mfb3042]

Printing this much money to keep things going makes this a unique time. Gold may have it's dips. It's hard to see it going much lower.

[@Capitaltrading]

Any support level you like more than others? $1450, $1400 maybe?

[@mfb3042]

@@Capitaltrading I don't feel smart enough to make a professional guess. It seems there would be a major shift to go below $1400. Right now approaching below $1450 would be disheartening.

[@Capitaltrading]

@@mfb3042 No need to be a certified professional to have a personal forecast, we think :) Agreed about the levels you mentioned. The support for gold right now is more an area, than a fixed level and it seems it's between them.

[@ultimatehandyman]

Thanks for the video, I’ve watched several of your videos over the last few months and they are always informative. All the best for 2020 👍

[@Christoph877]

Whenever I look at the longterm chart, as far back as it goes, I always think about how there's a long period of not much until 1980's, and then another long period of not much until 2000's. I've also heard about how there's a 20-30 year cycle for Gold, with a big move only once in that time. We may be waiting another decade or two for a big move. In the meantime we may just see some rolling hills, like what we're in right now. That's what the history of the longterm chart you showed looks like. Only time will tell ...

[@workwithnature]

We never had the potential of a global currency colapse.

[@marknordgard1916]

US dept more then 23 000 000 000 000 $ and stockmarket rally and ath are crazzy

[@anushiyyer5184]

I have seen you. Did you worked in Ozark ?

[@bign1667]

😆😆😆😆

[@robertschreiber5314]

Hi David, I guess it is not really possible to compare the behaviour of Gold in coming recessions to those in the past. In previous times gold had competition from the bond market. It appears to me, that with a debt burden of 185000$ per tax payer, the bond bond market actually seems to be a risk in itself.

[@Capitaltrading]

The bond market does indeed seem to be at risk, several signs coming up in the last quarters. Just to clarify - we're aware that recessions over the last decades, even more so going back more than a century, are different. Different things cause them, different reactions take place economically, politcally and socially. As someone pointed out in another comment - if this one is debt related and there is a crisis of confidence in currencies - then gold could be in a for huge rise. But one thing that is different now - the global economy has never been more connected - a recession could potentially have a smaller impact on growth, as the overall trend of GDP and economic expansion continues going up. So neither the dollar, nor other currencies would take a huge hit, like they have before. Consequently gold prices wouldn't skyrocket, instead just grow to a certain point before things calm down.

[@robertschreiber5314]

Hi David, interesting perspective of yours. On the other hand one could argue that exactly the connectedness compels central banks to inject liquidity to match their neighbours. This means that currencies would not depreciate against each other but against precious metals. Currently it seems like the US dollar is the prettiest mare in the slaughterhouse but I’m afraid that if past is prologue currencies will go to their intrinsic value as they all do in the end.

[@Capitaltrading]

@@robertschreiber5314 We'd have to agree with the dollar being the "prettiest mare". All things come to an end eventually, it will be the same with currencies at one point or another. But the fallacy in our (human) thinking is that it will happen "soon" and it will affect us. Economic collapses, natural disasters, political turmoil - we only get to see several of these in our lifetimes. Recessions come around every 7 years if we're not mistaken and - bar several examples - don't last that long. But we have to concede your point about the connectedness driving banks to pump liquidity. It's clear that the FED, ECB and BOJ work in tandem about 90% of the time and it's not helping. Our premise was that growth "has to" come from somewhere at all times. But with everything aligning and connecting we might be in for a longer cycle of economic depression across the globe. A bit off topic, but all of this has gotten us thinking about the population decline in the developed world and aging. It's curious how these two are affecting monetary policy, GDP and economic growth.

[@fahimmuchivocalstudio]

very informative video David, thank you for sharing, just shared it on etoro platform, could you make a video about the oil for next week? its been very bullish ever since the EIA report came out, broke the 55 resistance and now around 56

[@Capitaltrading]

Thanks for the support, as usual fahimmuchi :) Oil video is indeed coming next week, either Thursday or on Saturday.

[@bearteddy8399]

The risk is QE will destroy the credibility of the currency and no way back.

[@jameshelliwell3829]

very true

[@Capitaltrading]

Do you think it's more likely now than it was in the previous period of QE from the FED?

[@bearteddy8399]

Worse than before due to the collapse of china which will trigger the debt risk and competition of currency devaluations.

[@workwithnature]

@@Capitaltrading Not that it matters what I think, but if people can not afford more debt, then people will stop spending. This is deflationary in the real economy. Whilst QE has been inflationary in the false economy of stocks, bonds, derivatives marked and real estate. Could it go on, well no. Reason being is that Central banks by using this last tool they have will and are causing an overall hyperinflation, because as they will have to print yet again even larger amounts than in 2008, the confidence in the currency will be lost at some point and as prices will rise yet again,, in the real economy, perhaps drastically, the public who will already be in debt eventually, does what they always do - revolt. Then it is game over and they will have to back currencies with real assets. The question that you are asking is if they can get away with it forever or once more. I think the the crux is the revolting of the public. MMT is a fantasy.

[@Capitaltrading]

@@bearteddy8399 China are due a bit of a correction probably. Just watched a video about another white elephant project - the Hong Kong - Macao bridge. Debt is definitely surfacing there. We'll have to wait and see if it causes a slowdown or a full-blown crisis.

[@karmakarl6673]

What about silver in a recession? I'd love to hear your views....

[@Capitaltrading]

Silver pretty much follows Gold in times of recession..

[@Fastcarsdriveslow]

But when is the best time to sell your gold in a recession? When does gold hit is top?

[@MetalBum]

Gold is the best hedge of its a recession or downturn related to debt issues and money printing.

[@Capitaltrading]

We get the logic of what you're saying - it would be a crisis of value. And with gold being a storage of value it should go up.

[@douglashagan65]

You see you think that gold is a hedge against inflation do you really think so when the market crashes do you think gold is going to be protected while the dollar and value inflation takes over

[@Capitaltrading]

It should be boosted in times like this

[@marknordgard1916]

Nobody knows and any prediction can bee right

[@DjItchyNipples]

Invest in physical gold or paper ? Im new to this and think its time to invest in gold right now.

[@ДаДа-п8о]

Hey man. thanks for the video . is this still valid , even after the COVID-19 crises ?

[@Capitaltrading]

You're welcome. Every recession is different becasue it has different causes. Right now the safe haven is the dollar for protecting savings but physical gold is also seeing a lot of demand and its price has risen. $1,700 per ounce seems to be the level to watch at the moment on the international markets.

[@QuadTap]

i am from the future... 1500 is cheap for gold but wait until you see what bitcoin does

[@noctilucent7396]

Damn gold was cheap back 3 years ago

[@TheCJUN]

Appreciate this video 👍

[@TT3TT3]

Thanks!

[@billrundell2097]

The price of Precious metals has been manipulated for 30 years. In a recession PM will still be manipulated to what ever JP Morgan associates want.

[@Capitaltrading]

So many have said. But isn't it possible to ride the wave with any sort of perceived manipulation?

[@deezyXII]

Can US use this platform?

[@Capitaltrading]

Unfortunately no Mr. D but we still hope the videos will be useful to you!

[@andreacica3208]

is it possible that technology of our days increases the effects of a recession in gold price due to the fact that markets are more accessible? (sorry for my english and thanks).

[@Capitaltrading]

The effect of technology has been to sharpen moves in the stock market. It hasn't had such a direct effect on the factors that cause a recession. Gold price hasn't been too affected by algo trading it seems, so at the moment this shouldn't be a concern. And your English is perfectly fine, no need to apologise!

[@thembamahlaba3679]

Watching this in June 2022💀🤣 COVID hit a few months after this😭😭 We have had no break in the last five years😭😭😭

[@Capitaltrading]

Well everything happens in the trading world!

[@murdochz]

4 years later, same story!

[@mrjohny2993]

Gold will come down to 500$ wait for that time. This could be as early as 3400 ad

[@gabrielalexanderkhoury73]

Gold prices are manipulated.

[@Capitaltrading]

Why do you think so?

[@charleswilson8038]

Goes down

[@Capitaltrading]

You mean in every recession, or in the one that could be coming now?

[@emascatul]

2022 Sep - Gold is 1725!

[@libertatusinperpetuum2046]

The gold price does not go up and down. The price of gold in fiat currencies goes up and down. Gold is the "numeraire" that sets the value of what all other currency prices are related to it, not the other way around. Gold is real money, everything else like paper fiat currencies are nothing but debt.

[@Capitaltrading]

What do you think of this concept - everyone has always wanted gold the same way for as long as it has been available as a commodity - it never had ups and downs in supply and demand (even before any of the modern day currencies and their debt entered the frame)?

[@libertatusinperpetuum2046]

@@Capitaltrading People have always wanted gold because it has intrinsic value. I have never considered gold a commodity. Commodities are "consumed." Wheat, oil, corn, pork bellies, these are commodities. Gold is "held" or "sold" but is not consumed. Gold is money, everything else is credit/debt. Gold has had unconsumed value and has been used for money for 6,000 years. THAT is why people always want it and always will want it.

[@Capitaltrading]

@@libertatusinperpetuum2046 Fair enough about it being a precious metal, rather than a commodity. But the thing about gold today is that we (or at least a significant part of humanity) live in a world of abundance and rellaible products and services. These have given rise to currencies, bonds, stocks and most recently digital money backed by nothing physical and (put simply) built on a digital confirmation of trust. All of these have value, as long as we believe they have value. Gold has undoubtedly the longest and most universal history as a store of value but it surely can't be the only one?

[@libertatusinperpetuum2046]

@@Capitaltrading The items you list, currencies, bonds, stocks, etc, you say have value as long as people believe they have value. That is called "confidence." And confidence in these asset classes can be lost very easily. The many hundreds of depressions over the centuries prove that. Take every asset class that is valued in dollars. Then look very closely at a dollar. At the very top it says in large letters, "FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE." Has anyone ever asked themselves, what does that mean? A first year law student is taught that a "note" is a "debt." The Fed is basically saying to anyone who uses Federal Reserve Notes as currency to purchase all o their other asset classes, "You are allowed to use this debt as currency, but you owe us this debt back at 6% interest." This 6% is the fee the Fed pays its stockholders. Imagine people using debt as legal tender! And most people are clueless as to what they are doing. Gold has no debt attached to it. In fact gold has lost NONE of its intrinsic value mover the ages. Here are just three examples: In 32 A.D. Rome an ounce of gold would buy you a new toga, undergarments, belt and sandals. In 1905 an ounce of gold ($20) would buy you a nice new suit, shirt, tie, pants, shoes, socks and belt. Today, I can take an ounce of gold to a coin shop and trade it for $1500 US Dollars. Guess what $1500 (that same ounce of gold) will buy me? A nice new suit, shirt, pants, tie, shoes, socks and belt. What other asset class can do that? Always remember that GOLD is the numeraire that all other asset classes are judged against. Gold holds it value over the centuries and always will because it is real MONEY. J.P Morgan once said, "Gold is money and everything else is credit." Yep!

[@libertatusinperpetuum2046]

To continue: A first year law student is taught that a note is a debt. Everyone who has asset classes denominated in dollars is actually holding debt. The Fed is saying, "you can use this as legal tender but it is actually a debt that you owe us back at 6% interest", which is the cost the Fed pays to it's stockholders. Lets take a look at what I call gold's unchanging intrinsic value. In 29 A.D. in Rome a roman citizen could buy undergarments, a nice toga and top cloak, belt and sandals with an ounce of gold. 1900 years later in 1905 a man could walk into a mens store in New York with an ounce of gold and purchase a nice new suit, shirt, tie, pants, socks, shoes and belt. In 2019 I can take an ounce of gold and sell it for $1500. Guess what I can buy with it? A nice new suit, shirt, tie, pants, socks, shoes and belt! It has held its value for millennia. That is what makes gold MONEY. It has intrinsic value across the ages and is what all other asset classes are judged against.

[@krachinlertsiritrakul5567]

best

[@surveyguyor8958]

the price drifted off? you jsut didn't wait long enough. use your brain, as your chart shows it was stagnant around 1400 for a long time, well now it's 1800 7 months later. we all knew it was a good buy back in Oct. while you were badmouthing it. I bet you are regretting it now, and I bet you've bought it now.

[@rin360lew4]

Everything is crashing🙈

[@ranchocopper]

Who would have though... a pandemic? Gold is going up up up

[@Capitaltrading]

If this goes on longer, then it's a distinct possibility. But we have to keep something else in mind - at no point in history has so much money been printed and entered into the financial system. This stabilizes the economy, reduces fear and demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

[@ranchocopper]

@@Capitaltrading yes but as we recover and have to pay paper money back. Gold goes up. History over and over again. I predict Gold and silver won’t really start going up until next year and then rise rise rise. Of course, they will come back down but I think the levels now will be the new normals. Anyways, good video and stay safe

[@javi_zana]

Bitcoin

[@curtisrandolph1887]

Bitcoin bit the dust.2022.RIP.

[@greasyfishtacos]

What are the chances of this video before the pandemic lmao buy gold its always going up

[@lshepherd5859]

talk too much , no answer

[@darrellklassen2559]

Boring !!!! Get to the point. This guy talks for half an hour before he gets to the point. I'm falling a sleep listening to him ramble on and on and on. Get to the point already !!!!!!!

[@heliodorofernandez1979]

If do not like how he explains, What are you doing watching him?

[@heliodorofernandez1979]

If you do not like how he explains, What are you doing watching him?