There are 200+ likes sir, would be grateful if you solve those two questions you spoke about at the start of the video.
@indianeducationsystem46632 жыл бұрын
You are best thing that ever happned to youtube. As an aspirant, I can say very confidently that, irrespective of the likes/subscriber - your impact is huge. Thanks a lot Sir. 🙏 From Patna, Bihar, India.
@abhishekananth56182 жыл бұрын
Firstly, thank you for this video! Love your structured articulation, Pavan. You make learning so enjoyable :) Couple of Requests - 1. Could you share more examples like this, along with your approach (only for us to compare our approach to yours and fill in the gaps, if any) 2. Could you also share some good resources to practice guesstimates? Thanks again! :)
@arunramachandran94742 жыл бұрын
This is pure gold! Explained with such clarity. Thank you Pavan sir! 😇
@IYKYKpro2 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the kind words @Arun!
@shiitaalbudhrauj5242 жыл бұрын
Fantastic video Pavan. Loved the way you gave the breakdown to crack the population of asia. Enjoyed the whole guesstimate video.
@gayatrikonduri2122 жыл бұрын
Yet another amazing video! Thank you so very much for this, Pavan!!
@ankursingh09092 жыл бұрын
Assumptions: 1. Only domestically manufactured cars. Neglible % of imported cars. 2. Cars(including SUV etc) means not a light commercial vehicle. Eg. Pickup etc 3. Cars sold means only new cars sold. It does not include 2nd hand car purchases. Clarifications: Cars can be divided into 2 categories: 1. Personal vehicle 2. Taxi(Ola/Uber etc) Solution: 130 crore population with 4 member per Household = 32.5 cr HH = approx 33 cr HH BPL = 30 % = 11 cr --> 0 car per HH LIG ( 1 car per 10 HH = 1.32 cr MIG(3 LPA) = 25 % = 8.25 cr--> 1 car per 2 HH = 4.15 cr HIG(>15 LPA) = 5 % = 1.65 cr--> 3 car per 2 HH = 3.30 cr Total personal use car = 8.77 crore Taxi/Ola/Uber - Mostly used in tier 2 and above cities - Assuming personal car user will not use taxi. Only a negligible % of them may use. Assuming 33 % population lives in tier 2 and above cities = 11 cr HH 1. Car pool (3 per 1 cab) BPL = 0 LIG = out of remaining 90 % let's say 30% use cab for commutation = 11x40%X30%= 1.5 cr Since 3 per cab so number of cabs = 0.5 cr 2. Solo traveler MIG = out of remaining 50 % let's say 30% use cab and travel only solo = 11x25%x30% = 0.8 cr Total cars = 8.77 + 1.5 + 0.8 = approx 11.1 cr Average lifecycle of car say 10 years So average replacement per year = 11.1/10 = 1.11 cr Growth rate of new demand (10%) = 11.1X10% = 1.11 cr (Assuming higher than GDP growth as Covid 19 & increase in disposal income has increased the demand) Total demand = 2.22 cr (Replacement of old cars + sales due to growth in new demand) However, in year 2021 due to semiconductor chip shortage industry is witnessing increased waiting time say 2 months As demand is more than supply so that means 2/12 demand is unmet = roughly 15 % demand is unmet So total cars sold = 85 % of 2.22 cr = 1.9 cr approx I will highly appreciate if I get feedback on my approach.
@IYKYKpro2 жыл бұрын
very clear and agree with all the numbers! Now, I will throw another challenge at you - Can you think about the same problem only for 2 minutes and come up with alternative solution? Nothing wrong with what you did:), but you should push and think through alternate approaches as well! Thanks for sharing the answer!
@wonderbirdscocktail41132 жыл бұрын
Thank you, Pavan, fantastic guesstimation journey you have provided here...
@charuagrawal74582 жыл бұрын
Please share more questions!!!! Thank you, this was great.
@kevalkumar96942 жыл бұрын
Again an excellent video on structured articulation. Really helpful to make an understanding for different situations.
@navneet2142 жыл бұрын
Thank you for the video sir. I request you to also cover MBA interview questions and probability based questions. One of my friends was asked to estimate the probability of a fan falling.
@akashdevandran85705 ай бұрын
Amazing video and I likes your smile 😁
@sdutta7055 Жыл бұрын
This is just awesome ❤
@manan286809402 жыл бұрын
Amazing video :)
@abhimanyusingh8774 Жыл бұрын
what a well made video! kudos and thank you!
@mohit2312 жыл бұрын
Just wow!! Please suggest some good resources to practice them!! Please help us answer the questions you asked earlier
@IYKYKpro2 жыл бұрын
Will try to add resources as well here itself:)
@vaishviigoel7378 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for this video! I had the same structure and assumptions in mind as you described in the video! In one of my interviews, I was asked to guess the no. of newspaper articles published in a day in India about the PM, Narendra Modi. Further, I was asked to guess the proportion of articles that are positive. The guesstimate went on for about 30 mins and was pretty interesting!
@startersonic51962 жыл бұрын
It with me 200 🤞🍀
@hritikray90872 жыл бұрын
Would love to know your structure to both these problems.
@IYKYKpro2 жыл бұрын
Will answer if we do get to 200 likes:)
@SunilKumar_67 Жыл бұрын
@@IYKYKpro Now that you have gotten 200+ likes, can you please post the solution. Thanks for such amazing content.
@anushehattique8622 Жыл бұрын
What if you do not know how to make smart assumptions? What's the way around it?
@IYKYKpro Жыл бұрын
That is why you need to practice. Nobody is good at the first go.
@prabhatchawla26832 жыл бұрын
It’d be great if you can share your approach to solve the example guesstimate.
@IYKYKpro2 жыл бұрын
I will do it if & when we cross 200 likes on this video:)
@Yakuzichacha Жыл бұрын
@@IYKYKpro Hello Sir, The video crossed 200 likes :D Would love to know your take on this problem now. Please answer it whenever you get the time. Thanks.
@yogeshpareek94012 жыл бұрын
Please share a link of comprised Guess estimate that could be asked in Mckinsey