Ian Bremmer on Assad's fall | Quick Take

[@Senor0Droolcup]

Politely didn’t Ian Bremmer write an article just a week or so ago saying that Asad was far too secure to fall? What happened? A little self introspection would be helpful.

[@jonlittle5032]

What happened is you don't understand the difference between prophecy and analysis.

[@ilikepizza5741]

@@Senor0Droolcup politely, who predicted this ?

[@TheDavidlloydjones]

@@jonlittle5032 Your difference is bogus: prophecy is a form of analysis. Looks like _you're_ the one lacking understanding here, Jon.

[@benjaminmaracek535]

Yes, yes he did

[@Thecaptainblackadder]

Did he? That’s funny.

[@apocalyps3now]

Power vacuums are never a good thing. Especially in the middle east.

[@vger9186]

Yep, soon they start calling themselves dumb things like "Palestinian".

[@GregM-ws4hq]

Yep, the crazy most violent step in.

[@vger9186]

@@GregM-ws4hq Hezbollah was the most violent though. They killed around 400,000 Syrians but since it’s Arabs killing arabs no one cared.

[@jose98937]

it is not a power vacuum it a determined greedy parasitic state wanting to take over everything everything...

[@antbrown9066]

They have made claims about their intention to march on Jerusalem.

[@JoseAngelFlores]

I´ve seen so many hopeful Muslims and Arabs in general about the situation in Syria. I´m more skeptical, I don´t think anything good is coming out of this.

[@thefourthrabbit9516]

I don't like what the HTS stands for and am certainly skeptical about their backgrounds. But watching a video interview of CNN with their leader Al Julani makes my skepticism largely go away. I hope this guy can deliver what he envisioned for Syria. This may be one of the best things ever happened to the Middle East in recent years.

[@toober1066]

I feel the same, but I'm hoping we're both wrong. A Christmas miracle in Syria?! Why not. They're saying the right things at least. If they can live by them, who knows?

[@ananthan8951]

Regime changes in the Islamic world either supported or precipitated by the West usually bring more radical regimes into power. E.g Iraq, Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Effectively you expend a lot to sustain even more inhumane regimes and to advance the radical religious ideology.

[@markpukey8]

Yeah. It's easy to say "Assad = Bad. Removing him = Good." But Syria has spent a DECADE with various factions fighting each other! Until someone comes out clearly in charge, AND clearly not trying to take revenge against everyone else... it's going to remain a powder keg, waiting to explode.

[@Hexanitrobenzene]

I keep my fingers crossed on this.

[@LibertyScott-x6i]

Trading one devil for another…

[@Robespierre-lI]

@@LibertyScott-x6i We don't know that this is the case. There's certainly cause for caution ... But this is the Arab world. Since 1918, it has been one disaster after another. We must not let the perfect be the enemy of the good - and we need to give this less than perfect faction a chance to prove that they are, in fact, good enough.

[@stanalvares6888]

Problem is devil's with their exclusivity bring this about.

[@jose98937]

Asad wasn't a devil, maybe he was something between a dictator and a patriot but was it going on there now is horrendous. They want white wash the installed Daesh with new proped and train terr0rists... and empower kurds also for further fragmentation and stooge nation.

[@michaelwellen2866]

Good take. Way too many people getting excited/panicky over this.

[@joshuapaul2022]

Look at Libya and you'll see Syria's future.

[@jacobjorgenson9285]

The Zionists tentacles reach far

[@stefpix]

I posted a long winded similar comment. In the end Assad father and son were autocrats but allowed a secular, multicultural state, and were fighting the Islamic Brotherhood, which spun off Al Qaida, ISIS, Hamasetc. This sounds like Netanyahu's plan, enabled by the US, as Syria has been aligned with Russia, since Kissinger screwed Hafez Assad. So iuf Russia/Syria fight the Islamic Brotherhood it is bad, if Israel and USA fight Hamas, Al Qaida that is a noble fight for freedom. Double standards

[@vincentdecesare3698]

NATO directly intervened in Libya. Here it seems to have been just Turkey (which obviously is a NATO member); the US has designated HTS a terrorist organization because of its Al Qaeda roots, though HTS has renounced said connections. Impossible to say what will become of this and it could be messy given the number of rebel factions and some of their Islamist associations, but there isn’t evidence (yet) that the US and other NATO allies beside Turkey have been behind the rebel groups that toppled the regime.

[@stefpix]

@ the US military has an ongoing presence in Syria. Some of the rebels committed.mass killings of Alawites. Israel has been bombing and expanding its presence in Syria past the Golan Heights. Turkey has been battling the Kurds for decades. Divide and conquer

[@TJtheDJonWMCN]

nothing is permanent in the sands of the Middle East. Ask Ozymandias.

[@vger9186]

@@TJtheDJonWMCN Israel is.

[@Lala-rn3bk]

I hope they find some peace for the women and children.

[@PercyCushion]

Extremely sensible analysis right up to the point where Ian says “hopefully that will bring a little bit more stability to the region”. If the “rebel forces” don’t dissolve in infighting to decide who gets control over Syria it will be a major miracle.

[@klaytonpeterson]

Thank you Ian.. I was hoping to get a better understanding of Syria's current situation. 🙏 500,000 killed, murdered & 6,000,000 refugees. Prayers for Syria 🇸🇾 🙏 😢 to strive toward humanity and stability .

[@97spanky97]

The Kurds may finally get a homeland in eastern Syria, Hezbollah will see it's arms shipment shrink to a trickle, Isreal may find a little more security on their Northern border, Lebanon may focus on reducing some of the corruption, and Western Syria may get a more sectarian government... Feeling kind of positive about this.

[@TJtheDJonWMCN]

Annexation may not be a thing, but self-determination is. It will be interesting to see how the Kurds in Syria fare given the apparent mania the Turks have about them. I'm surprised that Biden hasn't flown in some more soldiers in Tanf and elsewhere to support the Kurds.

[@billking8843]

Turkiye will do its best to thwart that and will need to be leaned on by Western powers. Assad being overthrown is cause for celebration. I don't buy the line that Assad was the least bad ruler Syria could have.

[@Hexanitrobenzene]

​@@billking8843 I don't understand Turkey. The main thing they are concerned with is separationism. If Kurds create their own country outside of Turkey, that's a win-win, no ?

[@bradsillasen1972]

"Arab Spring" is a metaphor for shit no one sees coming.

[@hazelwray4184]

sees, or saw...past tense.

[@bradsillasen1972]

Thanks for questioning that, good catch! I was dithering. My intention was that it refer to unforeseen negative consequences resulting from a well intended action. As in "That'll be your Arab Spring". It's awkward if not incorrect as is, but I'm not an English major so feel free to improve :)

[@janebishop5885]

You always fill in the details, thank you.

[@clapathy]

Thanks

[@andrewnellestyn5978]

Libya Redux 😱

[@hjones4922]

Trump is very lucky that Biden is handing on such a great legacy. I do hope this context is included in any reporting of Trump's claims of success in future.

[@hazelwray4184]

It's often overlooked that the Arab Spring and Syrian uprising occured in 2011, and that Russia only intervened militarily in 2015. Gadhaffi was overthrown in 2011 when NATO forces aligned with Sunni Islamist radicals - riding roughshod over the Russian backed humanitarian UN mandate. Gadhaffi had agreed to give up Libya's weapons of mass destruction/nuclear weapons program in 2003. The year of the illegal invasion of Iraq. The future UK Manchester Arena Bombers had their passports returned and surveillance measures lifted by the British state, enabling them to train with one of several Al Qaeda aligned militias Britain was covertly backing in Libya.

[@gpw203]

Into the valley of the shadow of death rode the 23 million, and I'm not sure there will be quite as many by this time next year!!!

[@MattyG-tv4cu]

“Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.” -The Who

[@georgedoolittle9015]

Is quite remarkable to see Syria opened up to the World something that hasn't been true ever in my view. Presumably the Syrian State is "shaped" the way it is for a reason...a State that can self sustaining with more than just independence but self determination but is this true in any way? Can this be true in any way? *"One door closes another one opens"* 😊😊

[@rolfw2336]

As best I can tell the Syrian population and diaspora really want this to work out, and that will count for a lot. It seems very much in Europe’s interest to help that along.

[@jodylowe8476]

I remember back in the day, one of the major networks did a hour long show during prime time about Asaad and his wife, how they will be beacons of light in the region. Turned out he was a serial killer, mass murderer.

[@regi7087]

So what will happen to the territory held by the Kurds? Will they declare independence or join the rebels?

[@markdouglas8073]

That is a question that deserves more coverage. And Erdoğan’s role in all this. Last night it was reported that Türkiye’s proxies had killed around 40 of America’s Kurdish proxies, pitting NATO states against each other.

[@Jake-co3wk]

very good factual analysis. Wonder if all the refugees will want to return. Thanx

[@TJtheDJonWMCN]

The ones in Turkey and Germany will receive encouragement.

[@MinecraftMasterNo1]

How boneheaded do you have to be to think refugees would want to return to a country run by radical islamists?

[@robertpaterson3229]

If Ian lived 500 years ago he would have been a foreign diplomat - I could see him and Machiavelli having great conversations as they low key covet power

[@KBfin...]

Of course, dictators need to be removed. Ian Bremmer is intelligent and a genius, but he does not emphasize the removal of other dictators in that region. For example, Saudi Arabia has been ruled by one family for over 100 years without democracy, and North Korea is still ruled by a single family.

[@aleaiactaest8354]

Good segment.

[@Insight_Outlook]

I wonder what the current nominee for Director of Intelligence thinks about this 🤔

[@robertewalt7789]

Or the current Director of National Intelligence. Did the vaunted US intelligence community see this coming?

[@SugarSugar75]

Yeah, if I’m being charitable, she probably couldn’t create a 3 minute KZbin video on the conditions that led to this outcome. Or even explain the forces at play in the region.

[@hw_plainview1179]

If Syria some how turns into a substantial US ally, or somehow the country is run secular enough so American companies have a new market, if essential this ends well, then it is a GWOT/Neo-con victory.

[@PEERSEEMANN]

Excellent video

[@TRU4MTV]

An interesting take on what this means for the Axis of Resistance.

[@CurationChannel]

Some mistakes: Russia did comment and the likes of Alexander Dugin called it a tragic event. The southern Syrian Jordan backed rebels were on a race to get to Damascus before HTS and they did. HTS and HTS likely to clash, as are Turkey backed rebels with Kurdish rebels which had been ongoing

[@Vicky-Blue]

It is only getting worse in the region.

[@magnarkringlenervik8349]

Almost no coverage of Syria in Russian media? Sure about that, Ian?

[@JustAnotherGoddess52]

A map would be nice. Thanks for your insights.

[@mvonwalter6927]

Long term I don't think that HTS will tolerate an occupied Gaza better than Assad. Sectarian differences are not the solid barrier that Western perceive.

[@avidagan8975]

Ian didn't refer to a very important development in this region, the Fate of the Curds in the north east of Syria and the possibility of big scale clashes between Hts and the Curdish enclave, bearing in mind that Turkey dislikes the Curds, while supporting Hts.

[@alexc6926]

This is a W for the US. Is it one by their hand? no but it is a win and you take the win even though the major benefactor is Turkey. No this will not lead to more stability in the conflicts you mentioned probably more desperation from certain parties or make others more agressive on both sides of the two you mentioned

[@robertewalt7789]

I saw a news report this morning about US air attack on rebel bases. How does that make sense?

[@rambleon2838]

In reference to Angela Merkel. Ignominy noun 1 : deep personal humiliation and disgrace 2 : disgraceful or dishonorable conduct, quality, or action Sixteen years in power is even too much for a thriving (or was) democracy like Germany. Sometimes I wonder if eight years is too much, this days.

[@professorakiba434]

Here is a question I have. This is a tremor in the Middle East. Could a Turkish supported government in control of Syria lead to a conflict between Turkey and Israel? Also could a Turkish supported government in Syria not restoke the old Turkish-Russian rivalry which has been a facet of their foreign relations for an awful long time?

[@Robespierre-lI]

Interesting question. But ... I don't think Erdogan would be willing to do that. He's got an interesting approach to foreign relations. He likes to keep his friends and foes both guessing. He seems, at times to play multiple sides. But I don't think Turkey can sacrifice their relations with the West. The loss of NATO membership and trust would be catastrophic for Turkey. It really would be foolish for Erdogan to go after Israel. Then again, countries do sometimes do very foolish things. Brexit is a recent example.

[@stefpix]

I would like to understand. The Islamic Brotherhood was rampant in Syria. The Islamic Brotherhood that generated Al Qaida, ISIS and Hamas. Hafez Assad, from the discriminated Alawite ethno religious minority, who are not considered Muslims by some, and have some Christan syncretism allowed a very secular, multi religious society with no state religion. He crushed the Islamic Brotherhood with violence and massacres. Still he preserved a multicultural society. But being an enemy of Israel, and aligned with Russia, after being screwed by Kissinger made him on the target list of US and Israeli foreign policy. Of course he an his son are dictatorial autocrats. But now that ISIS, Al Qaida affiliated groups will raise to power, will it be better? And with all these factions? Is it going to be Libya 2.0? SO Bashar Assad killed so many innocents to get rid of Al Qaida affiliated groups in his country. How is it different from Israel killing so many civilians in Gaza to get rid of Hamas? Why overthrowing Assad was so important for Israel and the USA? Will the Alawites, Christian and Kurdish Syrians be discriminated? This sounds like the Netanyahu apocalyptic master plan, with American and Turkish approval. Iran got attacked after electing a more moderate leader. Syria took a backseat in supporting Hezbollah against Israel. In any case Israel took advantage of perceived weakness to weaken these ememies and pusg regime change. Will Syria become an Islamic republic or califfate?

[@jonlittle5032]

Assad's (both) violence was not targeted at Muslims; it was targeted at all who opposed him. USA did not overthrow Assad; those groups you said he killed so many of, overthrew Assad. HTS is a US, Israeli pawn?? Ok, sport. Iran got attacked after launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel. Does that clear it up?

[@janetsanders5356]

🎧, too bad all those Syrian refugees in Turkey cant feel safe to go home for a happy story for a Change.

[@buddyvilla7393]

Arian Kurds with the help of the USA have been in control of Northwestern Syria for several years. Not sure where you get your information. The Assad regime has been in control of only about 2-3 of Syria probably less when you consider anti-Assad forces in the Northwest.

[@stinkfinger630]

Very scary development.

[@jasper-cg]

Much better analysis without bias against Ukraine this time

[@corinne7126]

HTS lesser of the evil leaders?

[@jonlittle5032]

There were five; now there are four. So. Yes.

[@jdotsalter910]

Yet Ian has been virtually silent on Israel's genocide. We know what side his bread is buttered on.

[@jonlittle5032]

Who butters your bread?

[@dojamimz]

@@jonlittle5032 america. we exist. being pro-american not pro-literally anyone else… is kind of our thing.

[@jonlittle5032]

@@dojamimz We Americans generally prefer truth, not innuendos, sport.

[@7788Sambaboy]

@@jonlittle5032 I would suggest that we prefer stories and self-approval and self-righteousness mixed with complacency and conceit. That said there are millions who actually do prefer truth, which is very difficult to ascertain...but I don't think they are the majority (just my 2 cents)

[@jonlittle5032]

@@7788Sambaboy Yes, though I would disagree that is an American attitude; rather it is likely universal. I was countering the identification of the OP, defining 'american' to be an identity that doesn't fit the narrative of the rest of us, but merely conforming to their own self-approval and self-righteousness. But otherwise, absolutely.

[@jeremiahwasabullfrog1]

Alright, let’s see what left wing perspective Ian is going to drop on this time.

[@billyv2210]

Hmmm the Arab Spring was a Pro Democracy movement - I guess I missed that.

[@KatySei]

I think Syria will be splitted between different forces in Syria.

[@Jean-Luc-sh2pg]

Don’t quit your day job bro

[@peaboss]

Did I miss it or this didnt address his "analysis" how Assad will not fall not quite recently?

[@lawrenceralph7481]

Tyranny falls

[@jstasiak2262]

Really? I don’t think so. Hayat Tahrir-Al-Sham (“HTS”), an authoritarian fundamentalist Islamic offshoot of Al-Nusra, makes Assad look like Abraham Lincoln.

[@billturner6564]

Boy o boy you really got the Syria thing wrong didn't you 😅😅😅 I told you Assad was gone because Russia is fucked and Iran not much better Iran next ?

[@mndflctzn]

The CNN interview with HTS' leader was encouraging. At least compared to Assad, he seems to be a more rational actor and have the Syrian people's future at heart. I hope it works out better for them, it was tough to see it getting worse than with Assad. We shall see.

[@Robespierre-lI]

Encouraging is as far as any of us should go with that. Speaking to Western media in that format could be a signal of a turning point in their ideology and political posturing. It could also, however, be a strategic ploy which is not entirely honest. Watch their behavior carefully. How will they treat the Kurds, Alewites and Druze ? Will they take aggressive action against Iranian proxies in Syria? Will they seek détente with Israël? Also watch how they respond to other Arab leaders. Especially the UAE and Saudis.

[@mndflctzn]

@Robespierre-lI agreed but we weren't getting anywhere with Assad + Russia + Iran. The fact he's making the Western media rounds this quickly smells like the CIA is assisting else they would have shut it down. Particularly since we haven't seen an organized smear campaign against him yet.

[@stevenweiss2575]

No mention of the Kurds?

[@checksandbalancez]

Did he even mention the Kurds?

[@wcwu1785]

REminds me ancient china history, The 3 kingdoms and the 7 warring states

[@AindriuMacGiollaEoin]

Interesting and very positive

[@JoeBlow-fp5ng]

Count the "uhhhh"s

[@namhophuong2776]

He was assassinated, his airplane was crashed

[@jstasiak2262]

Nope. Assad is alive and in Russia where he was given asylum.

[@arhondasmith2490]

Of course, trump going to ask Zelensky to give most of what Putin wants..surprising anyone who has been paying attention, thinks otherwise

[@jdk7468]

Sound quality very poor. Invest in a microphone!

[@continuousminer]

Bank of america? Cmon now. I get ads but

[@veryinteresting2208]

Guess who's going to pivot back to the Middle East?

[@elizabethscott8357]

Is HTS going to be the Taliban?

[@timwilliams9100]

What a surprise he does not mention the President elect at all on connection with the down fall if isis in Syria ! LOL

[@joachimweiss7946]

No clue like the rest of us

[@Smellthecoffee2112]

Nice try Ian. Your well controlled enthusiasm and your sketch of the facts doesn’t mention the ten year ongoing U.S. occupation and theft of oil, which strangles and destabilizes the diverse Syrian society and its economy. No mention of the none stop aerial bombardments from Israel. The general perception from the “outside” is that U.S.-Israel alliance has now teamed up with the be-headers to advance their ^ionist cause of colonial expansion. This is certainly no victory for civility in Syria or for peace in the greater ME region, as you know. Beware of the backfire. No Abraham Accord, just a broader bloody war.

[@Cfgr4578]

Ian you slacking

[@lindabingham6403]

Russia next???

[@Danji_Coppersmoke]

Another country just fell. Libya 2.0 with land border. Jumping out of boiling pot into fire basically.

[@yushpeaceandlove]

Mate - why do you care about the nature of the new governing power in Syria? Wether they are secular or not - should they adhere to your POV and your comfort level?

[@evanwalgren9591]

❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤

[@alanconway94]

Reading from his notes, with no real fluency. There are a great many ways to get more - and better - coverage on this story. Not relying on an American for it should always be your first choice.

[@jonlittle5032]

And you are here ... why?

[@alanconway94]

@jonlittle5032 To widen my sources of information. In this case, I needn't have bothered.

[@jonlittle5032]

@@alanconway94 Sure, sport. So. We won't be hearing from you again, right?

[@alanconway94]

@@jonlittle5032 Maybe. I quite enjoy winding twunts like you up. 😂😂

[@alanconway94]

@@jonlittle5032Sport? WTF are you? 😂

[@MrRhomas913]

Alawites are not Muslim.

[@Robespierre-lI]

Let's just not go down that ridiculous road of which sect falls within Orthodox islam and which do not. Both thè Druze and Alewites stem from historical islam. So do the B'hai for that matter. Look some Muslims even refuse to consider the Ismailis Muslim because they aren't Orthodox enough. These distinctions are only meaningful to theologians. No one else cares. Nor should they

[@danielstapler4315]

I think it's ironic that if the Alawites were in Iran they would be persecuted.

[@MrRhomas913]

@@Robespierre-lI Well....many Athari Muslims deem even Sufis non-Islamic, nay? Look at all the bombings in Pakistan. Alawites are not even accepted by most Shia.

[@not50damius62]

Buy yourself a microphone

[@davereynolds3403]

getting tired of lan’s western biases. his analysis is pretty good, doesn’t resort to insults & overt racism like many western mainstream media channels… but he’s still anti-Russian and pro-lsrael 🤔 on the wrong side of history twice … why support jen0syde ? that’s uncool 😔

[@mulamulelilumadi4717]

So you want him to be one of those insincere grifters

[@Muriel02]

Bremer-no genius here. He bet against Israel and now has crap on his face.