Have We Reached “Peak China”?

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Recent shifts in Western concerns about China's rise suggest we may have reached "peak China." This video explores whether China's global influence has peaked amidst economic slowdown and manufacturing dependence.
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[@ConstantChaos1]

I think it would have been important to have mentioned US and European initiatives to de-china their economies in this video

[@AtakenSmith]

"the world has become increasingly wary of its economic dependence on Chinese manufacturing." They kinda did say, but including everyone else.

[@ConstantChaos1]

@@AtakenSmith I don't feel like that's the same as actively saying that they are funding efforts to boost domestic production and are working on land contracts to begin mining the required precious metals locally or from independent 3rd party nations

[@0xCAFEF00D]

It's just not that big a factor yet. I'd recommend the article "Is ‘friendshoring’ really working?" from the Atlantic council. It's a good article but the first figure makes what's happened in the US China trade war clear (the US has been quicker to act than the EU). And you'll quickly see that the declines are barely there except information technology. Them moving from 45% of US import goods for that category to 30% 2018-2023. The others are small single digit percentage changes over that period. And some sub categories like personal computers and laptops are barely changed. It absolutely will matter. But it's not there yet.

[@MasterGhostf]

But, that was a reaction from China's policies. The world put up with it because they were cheaper, now they're not. foreigners can't invest in Chinese companies, they steal intellectual rights, but demand the world respect their IP rights. Sure, in the west there is theft of IP; but its not encouraged. Now, we can say China is reacting to the west; which is true. We're always reacting to events. @@ConstantChaos1

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@AtakenSmith And as usual western channels equate the west with the world. It isn't.

[@ad_astra468]

It has officially peaked population wise and growing the economy while the population is falling is really hard.

[@Ededdneddy9]

It’s not falling that rapidly and it’s coming from being the most populated country in the world they still have almost triple the population of America so that isn’t the problem. The whole world is suffering at the moment some less than others but pretty much all projections have China surpassing the US by 2030 and that’s with China’s problems. It seems like whenever China or Russia is having any problems there’s a magnifying glass over it but when the US deals with problems they get ignored, in order for China to still be on pace to surpass the US either their problems aren’t that severe or the US is undergoing similar issues or both.

[@AL-lh2ht]

Though by chinas own statement that the GDP number is not accurate and in real terms much ER lower in reality.

[@wihenao]

People think China is running out of babies. It's actually running out of working age adults!

[@J_X999]

@@AL-lh2ht It's around 4.5%

[@jwhite5008]

@@J_X999 It's probably a decline of at least 10% in comparison to 2019

[@MichaelCampbell01]

I understand the saying, but it's weird. Meteors fall, not rise.

[@theswiv]

*doffs hat As a self-confessed pedant. I am ashamed to say I hadn't realised this before

[@gideonmele1556]

I believe it’s in part with the imagery that’s left unspoken, there may be a swift rise but the more dramatic fall. I think the opposing wording gives more impact and people took hold of it like ‘lowly heights’ to denigrate a technically better position but one quite unenvious

[@badboje6040]

Honestly the only real (though unsatisfying) answer is that it's too early to tell. Nobody knows whether this is just a temporary setback for China or the start of a broader trend, anyone who claims they do is a fool.

[@dr.victorvs]

I mean... this is literally their job.

[@badboje6040]

@@dr.victorvs I'm not talking about TLDR, they didnt make a concrete prediction. I'm referring to all the "China is done for" or "the West is still fading" people you see online.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@dr.victorvs There's literally a major economics channel on YT, run by an actual economist, who drops the line 'nobody can predict the future, least of all economists' in practically all his videos.

[@GraniteInTheFace]

This is why I call Peter zeihan a fool.

[@MSDGroup-ez6zk]

Don't you know that the UK is the 3rd largest US bond holder on earth and is in a recession? Don't you know that Japan the largest US bond holder on earth is in recession too? China is the 2nd largest US bond holder on earth too? If China slows down its economy and reduces its imports from Europe and Japan, it may trigger a deepening economic recession in the UK and Japan. Thus there is a possibility that the UK and Japan will sell their US bonds. If that happens, China will reduce its US bond holding too.

[@Brown95P]

Fact of the matter is, China never truly avoided the 2008 housing bubble crisis; they merely kicked the can down the road, and it's never been more damaging than now as a result.

[@SelfProclaimedEmperor]

Now they will have their 2008 in 2024, except much worse

[@RuB0t]

Absolutely, with Evergrande finally defaulting and others looking shaky this is the biggest treat to China right now

[@deezeed2817]

Americans are the ones that kicked the can down the road by bailing out banks and corporations which is why you have so many zombie companies. Yes China is seeing property deflate but the U.S on other other hand uses its reserve currency status to continue the massive deficit spending which would've bankrupted any other country. The U.S is in a super bubble and they can continue inflating this bubble so long as the dollar remains reserve currency but once foreign countries figure out they'll never get their money back they will find an alternative. It will happen, Maybe not tomorrow or next year but it makes no sense to allow the endless deficit spending and weaponisation of the dollar to continue. So don't worry about China because the U.S will be the concern that will cause a massive global crash once the game of musical chairs ends.

[@Anthony-db7cs]

Two unrelated things

[@salt4819]

@@Anthony-db7csen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_economic_stimulus_program

[@bluesteel1]

Who knew angering youre biggest customer would turn out badly ?

[@jaspreet_learner]

Your videos are short, concise and explain the situation well. Love this format ❤ Thank you 🙏🏻

[@raihanrusli2720]

Is this the 20484738939484th video about China's decline I see in youtube ?

[@imfromisrael489]

it is! its slowing down though the US is also. pretty expected

[@jsuoar6394]

Wasn't China supposed to collapse years ago?

[@curtiswfranks]

The mere fact that they have such a huge population in a globalized age means that they will always have some nontrivial cultural and geopolitical clout.

[@ipman3249]

Except that population is growing old and becoming more and more expensive. Leading manufacturers to go to cheaper alternatives. (Still the same unethical labor just somewhere else that is cheaper)

[@curtiswfranks]

@@ipman3249: Sure, but the sheer numbers will eventually lead to a huge impact. These things are just blips.

[@kagenlim5271]

​@@curtiswfranks Not when your population is on the decline especially when you consider that there arent enought babies being made

[@paul1979uk2000]

@@kagenlim5271 But he is right thought, the sheer size of China population gives it a lot of political and economic clout, that isn't changing any time soon. To put it another way, the US only became a superpower because it was the only modern country with such a big population, there's nothing special about the US apart from that it's population size is far bigger then any individual European country, that normally defines power if you can modernise the economy to back up that population. China has the population, they've been having impressive economic growth for decades, that very likely spooked Washington, because the writing was on the wall, if that growth continues, China would end up being far bigger than the US, and that is more or less why the US is being so hostile on China now, it sees it as a threat to its core power around the world. The irony is, the US does this with any power it sees as a threat to it's own, we saw it with Japan in the 80's, we saw it with the EU in the 90's and onwards, which the US won't with weakening Japan but are getting nowhere with the EU, probably because Japan has a much smaller population, that it was surprising how powerful they actually got, whereas the EU have a big population so it's much harder for the US to push them around. Either way, US actions on China suggest they see China as a major threat to them, after all, when you cut through all the BS, actions usually speak louder than words and the US is showing that on China, for many on the outside of the US, they see the US as fearing China.

[@kingofhearts3185]

China's population is shrinking (even they admit it) and their birthrate is well below replacement. They won't have that huge population for long.

[@XTheLolX301]

Every year i see videos like this of many countries and still none or them except Sri Lanka have collapsed

[@Godfrey544]

This is about decline not collapse and it already happening

[@bumbusbumboy5127]

they never said it would collapse

[@GiorniVenibato]

@@bumbusbumboy5127a lot of other morons did! Ever watched Fox News???😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@zacharydavis4398]

Thanks for spending the time to create and share this content awareness

[@kongwee1978]

China 5% growth is collapsing while USD 2.1% is resilient.

[@askeladd60]

it's ridiculous with these clowns

[@imfromisrael489]

yeahh but its talking about slowing not collapsing. anyways they arent wrong about that. China had 740 billion dollars of economic growth and the us has about 600 billion dollars of economic growth. the gap is getting closer

[@enigma6682]

The CCP is well known to massively inflate their GDP growth, and when change from % growth rate to actual GDP growth, even with that inflated value it does not differ from the US's growth that much, this therefore make China unlikely to surpass the US anytime soon.

[@christianmoore7109]

We don’t know if 5% is even real. How much longer do you think China can grow at all when its population is shrinking by millions every year.

[@kongwee1978]

It will take at least 50 year to catch up to US per capita. 5% is not much in developing countries like China. @@christianmoore7109

[@dr.victorvs]

Always a good idea to look back and see if other countries have been in this situations. Like, would the US have reached the heights it did, or was it stagnated before WW2?

[@spritemon98]

I'd say it was reaching stagnation during the great depression

[@BrightWendigo]

Then a world war fell into its lap that destroyed every other industrial base but its own.

[@tempejkl]

It did stagnate, yes.

[@nntflow7058]

China today is just like Japan in the 90s.

[@BrightWendigo]

And then a world war fell into its lap, where every industrial base but its own was destroyed.

[@J_X999]

The truth is somewhere in the middle of both extremes. China isn't rising the way it used to, but it's not necessarily declining either. Debt fueled GDP growth of 10% is definitely over, but sectors like batteries, EVs and green energy, China is still growing very strongly. I'm glad that the green energy situation was brought up, it's pretty overlooked. The popping of the property sector is absolutely necessary, even if it means slower GDP growth. It couldn't have continued growing. Xi Jinping did the right thing and popped it. Housing speculation was WAY too crazy in China. No wonder young folk didn't have kids. China will remain a strong, competitive force, especially in it's new sectors such as green energy. However, China won't be the next superpower like people said 10 years ago.

[@smoothoperator2008s]

Not really, China just entering/starting low level of advance economy. Biggest drag is their govt.

[@dr.victorvs]

I would agree with that if it weren't for the population crisis. People are not gonna start having children just because houses are cheap. Nothing like that has worked anywhere in the world. Couples simply don't want to have children anymore.

[@dr.victorvs]

And by the way, even the "anymore" there is already quite charitable. There are many reasons why people had many kids back then, and wanting many kids is not one of them.

[@J_X999]

@@smoothoperator2008s "China is starting low level advanced economy." That's literally what I said. China is advancing into a more advanced economy.

[@J_X999]

@@dr.victorvs The only reason I put that in is because I saw a scatter graph from Caixin Global comparing house prices to birth rates/desired birth rates from young people. Directly proportional if I've ever seen it.

[@nam2168nam]

Thanks!

[@tommohsien888]

I don't know is the best answer. There are too many variables and trust in any "expert" is sort of like counting on your local sportscasters to do game predictions.

[@loot6]

It's like counting on any single person to give you the facts, that would just be a logical fallacy. Instead analyse the actual content and the facts themselves for the truth.

[@AL-lh2ht]

Demographics don’t lie. Nor does economic bubbles.

[@slicer2938]

was gonna say its way too close to call whether china will decline from here. a more realistic stance would be that china will likely attempt to adapt to its situation and will probably see a mediocre rise into prosperity. One thing americans forget is that china wont just sit around and be like "economy go bye bye" they'll likely do something about it whether that be making their domestic market much more appealing for foreign investment or attempt to innovate into different sectors other than manufacturing.

[@loot6]

@@slicer2938 The problem is their reputation is already well established - cheap poor quality products and ripping people off. Now there is much rising competition with India, Mexico, Vietnam etc too. Their GDP certainly can't hold, it will surely drop by quite some margin in fact. Their domestic market only makes up a third of their GDP and they're already in deflation. The future will be that the demographics time bomb has more and more effect. It might get better in time but right now the outlook looks as bad as it could possibly look.

[@juliusataturk2421]

@@slicer2938 Yeah, and the PRC’s drive to influence the world at all costs needs to be the top concern on the radar for every nation, for the Chinese must be freed from Totalitarian Socialism

[@concernedcitizens4110]

China is now entering their own version of the ‘lost decade’ however I must say they’re in much more precarious position because they are facing the ‘2008 financial crises’ on steroids. They might survive this crises but it’s highly unlikely they could catch up to the US anytime soon.

[@AhmedIbrahim-or5dg]

Really? They will surpass usa in one decade ....china will grow slowly more like 5 percent but ain't no they are declining

[@Kalimdor199Menegroth]

China, unlike Japan which experienced the lost decade in 90s, hasn't reached a level of domestic development and population prosperity that would make it cope with a period of economic stagnation. Japan reached that by the 90s, which is why, although it stagnated and has seen limited growth since then, it remained stable.

[@houseplant1016]

​@@Kalimdor199MenegrothBy stable do you mean no revolution? China's grip on the population is way too high to even be able to start a riot. Look how fast they opressed Hong Kong, a city that had a democratic traditions of decades. Most of the Chinese have never known democracy, so they don't even know what they would be fighting for.

[@Honkious5824]

Well, it isn't really a crisis, the collapse of the housing market is a result of policies enforced by the CPC, such as the three red line policy. It wasn't a freak disaster, but a calculated move on the part of the Chinese government to prevent an actual crisis down the line. In the words of Xi Jinping "housing is for living in, not for speculation."

[@saber2802]

China could fracture and it could turn into a warring state period again. China seems to like to do that.

[@nicolasbenson009]

In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.

[@EddyAgnes-vy4kp]

The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.

[@CraigLloyd-fz6ns]

Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one

[@EdwinSolomon-zs3nz]

thank you for this tip , I must say Margaret, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her online page, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.

[@chillxxx241]

Japan has an even larger impact on ASEAN, but this channel never discusses that impact.

[@mateabonyi299]

Please tell more, you got me curious

[@chillxxx241]

@@mateabonyi299 People always forget about Japan’s economic and military strength, but they always overstate China’s. Japan has invested in ASEAN countries since the 1960s. China didn’t overtake Japan as the second largest economy, if you believe the statistics of a communist country, until 2010. It wasn’t until the late 2010s that Chinese investment in ASEAN countries overtook Japan, but they likely weren’t good investments. Japan, South Korea, the United State, and UK among others have been investing in Asia for a long time.

[@cfromnowhere]

@@chillxxx241 People don't take Japan's military seriously because their military is technically not a "real" military. But it is definitely a very shortsighted view.

[@chi15800]

@@cfromnowhere their main beef is with whales, saw it on a very interesting documentary called Southern Park.

[@mateabonyi299]

@@chillxxx241 interesting, do you think that political economic advantage could be regained in that region ? Just curious as to what your thoughts are.

[@JW-do2wc]

0:30 That's a relief.

[@robbieshand6139]

"Growth is still strong by international standards." Yeah it's amazing how much growth you can have when you just make up numbers. Even China's former Premier, Li Keqiang said that China's GDP is 'manmade'

[@J_X999]

It's still higher than international standards. People use the excuse that China lies about it's stats to brush off any type of growth. I work for JPM and everyone knows China's economy grew by more than 4%>

[@Honkious5824]

Isn't all GDP manmade? People work to generate money, that's just how economies work. Manmade = fake is a pretty big assumption.

[@foilhat1138]

​@@Honkious5824 Its like what was stated in the video, regional governments overinflate their GDP numbers because then they get more subsidies from the state. Li said China's GDP figures wre "man-made" and therefore unreliable, and to focus on just three data points: electricity consumption, rail cargo volume and bank lending."By looking at these three figures, Li said he can measure with relative accuracy the speed of economic growth. All other figures, especially GDP statistics, are 'for reference only,'" Henderson, Storeygard and Weil estimated a 14-year change and annual changes in economic activity for a panel of 188 countries between 1992 and 2008, including many low- and middle-income countries. One way to assess the quality of Chinese economic data is to look at the difference between the growth rate of real GDP reported by the government and the estimated growth from 1992 to 2006 using the night-lights data. Reported real GDP growth in China over this period is about 122 percent, while predicted growth using the night-lights data is only 57 percent. This sizable gap suggests cumulative Chinese growth over the years could be overstated by as much as 65 percent. Compared with other countries in the sample, the difference between the official and estimated numbers for China is large. In fact, the only country with a larger gap than China is Myanmar. At the end of the day though nobody really knows how large China's economy is, including China.

[@foilhat1138]

@@Honkious5824 No he meant the figures were manmade. He said that the GDP numbers were only to be used 'as a guideline.' China is aware of the problem of regional governments overstating GDP figures to receive more funding, but they don't really want to crack down on it because it makes the economy appear in better shape.

[@Xrey-ek5sh]

Funny how any numbers that don’t fit your narrative is made up by the Chinese government, but any numbers that fit your narrative are facts

[@mrmuffles3143]

It feels like every year there is such a video ..

[@Bigsmoke11001]

Same.

[@TheRealIronMan]

You are starting to get it, watch in 10 to 20 years China collapses into the world's largest economy, a lot of ppl haven't realized how western & vassal media have been singing China collapse theories on a weekly basis for the last 20 years, it started even before China's economy was 1/20th size of the US.

[@Siethon1]

Everything is cyclical. It may take 10-15 more years for China to overcome the issues impacting it the most today - population decline will be unavoidable. However, we should never underestimate our rivals.

[@R.J.Perry23]

O a new commentator. I like her! Variety is good. May ms fin have success!

[@freeman10000]

Xi Jinping is the Red Emperor and he really does look like Winnie the Pooh. Also 8964!

[@mazibukomail]

And she looks a bit east Asian

[@mazibukomail]

@@grapesurgeon tongue in cheek comment, but to nswer your questiob it has to do w/ the fact that the video is about an east Asian country.

[@caseclosed9342]

According to her LinkedIn she went to Oxford and used to work for TalkTV

[@mazibukomail]

@@grapesurgeon I agree with you

[@ju_aych39]

Who's the new girl? Love it! Great job 👍🏽

[@Everett02]

It's economy will keep growing but just not as fast. There's no way they could have kept up that rate of growth forever

[@jwhite5008]

Yes, they will keep growing, they themselves call it "negative growth", I'm not even kidding

[@MichaelCampbell01]

Of course; the point of the video is asking if that inflection point is _now_.

[@paul1979uk2000]

To be fair, the closer China closes the economic gap on modern countries, the slower economic growth is going to be, that's normal for any developing country, but China still has a lot of room left for high growth before it catches up with modern countries, based on the size of its population. So in the short term, I think growth will slow down because of actions from the US and to a less degree, from the EU to distance themselves economically from China, before picking up as things normalise and China changes policies to kick-start more economic growth.

[@guillaumelagueyte1019]

@jwhite5008 isn't it just a weird translation thing about the diminishing rate of growth?

[@hughmungus2760]

@@jwhite5008 'negative growth' is when inflation outstrips growth. But right now china is in Deflation which means in practical terms its growing Faster than 5.2%

[@Nainara32]

Feels like the TLDR script needs some editing. You should avoid transition phrases like "anyway..." and "you get the idea".

[@korifm9051]

Agreed. They want to be professional but those phrases are not, or, in the case of "anyway" come across as outright dismissive.

[@IrradioMan]

Infantile “journalism”

[@hublanderuk]

@GeorginaFin You were good at presenting this video I look forward to more from you.

[@guydreamr]

One important thing to bear in mind is the following seldom discussed fact: no nondemocratic country has *ever* escaped the middle income trap.

[@petrsedlacek7970]

Exactly. Russian imperium was an agricultural country, so when Bolsheviks and Stalin took power, they started to industrialize the country. Everybody was amazed how the Soviet Union avoided the 1929 crisis and how it evolved into an industrial giant. However, they started to stagnate once they reached a certain point of development. If you are an unfree country with a planned economy, you can never be the world's technology leader. You will always lag behind copying something that somebody else discovered before. The only way how to compete in techlonogy is to focus on few fields, where you throw all your resources in.

[@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022]

Singapore wasn't and still isn't exactly a flourishing democracy, but their GDP per capita is sky high. Hong Kong was never a true democracy even before Chinese interference (for one, corporations can directly vote in elections) and they're also rich.

[@darter9000]

Singapore is a weird example since the dictator then was far more pragmatic and used his powers to crush interracial discord (in the media in particular)--normally, dictators and empires rely on interracial discord to hold onto power, it creates an ultra loyal demographic within society. One could argue that, while Singapore is, by no means a state with a long democratic tradition, Singapore did take measures to ensure everyone could participate in the economy --even if it meant batting down freedoms that the western world takes for granted.

[@guydreamr]

@@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022 Not as democratic as Western Europe or the United States perhaps but a helluva lot more democratic than Russia or China.

[@unconventionalideas5683]

To be clear, Singapore is a weird case in many ways. For one, they haven't necessarily traditionally jailed people for having different ideas or suggesting some policy is bad. They might have discontinued funding with taxpayer money, but they wouldn't necessarily jail you either. Singapore also nominally has opposition parties that are allowed to stand and say things contrary to the government, although their voting systems mean that in practice they won't get into government. Still, Singapore has tried to allow people to partake in the economy and at least think for themselves, and even if there are clear limits to political freedoms, they are not as confining as the likes of Russia or China. @@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022

[@titusbaum9690]

Imagine being a citizen the world's factory working all week, but too poor to afford what you build. Scary.

[@moharshad6882]

Well honestly that’s in most countries, even in the US they don’t make a lot

[@nulnoh219]

They've been "in decline" or "in the verge of collapse" for the past 40 years...

[@TenOrbital]

The CCP always put control above efficiency.

[@bwhog]

The biggest problem China has, in geopolitical terms, is "Made in China". It still means just what you think it means even for the Chinese military.

[@dt2985]

This is a wild claim and it's frankly unquantifyable, but if we look at chinese tech and industry and its indigenization that occurred over the past years I think this is disingenuous

[@--Traveler--]

those ev's sure are amazing. those bridges sure are amazing. those buildings sure are amazing. oh wait they aren't. if anyone is being disingenuous it's you, son. @@dt2985

[@moharshad6882]

I get what u mean, I don’t think it’s the biggest problem, but because china’s trying to modernize, and is starting to make cars and chips, many people wouldn’t trust Chinese made and would prefer other more reliable countries like Taiwan in terms of quality

[@dragontamer9323]

I think most people consider the iPhone and Volvo cars to be high quality. It shows how far Chinese quality and manufacturing has come in the past 30 years.

[@HyperScorpio8688]

When there is a third-party Western quality control system is in place, yes. Otherwise you get tofu dregs@@dragontamer9323

[@JenniferA886]

Nice presentation job 👍👍👍

[@srelma]

Could slow down a bit. Compare her to the other tldr presenters and you notice they they speak much slower.

[@just4fun607]

simp spotted

[@JenniferA886]

@@srelma good point… 🖕🖕🖕

[@flubadubdubthegreat1272]

​@@srelma lol I watch this stuff at 2x speed, maybe accelerate your brain function

[@MSDGroup-ez6zk]

Don't you know that the UK is the 3rd largest US bond holder on earth and is in a recession? Don't you know that Japan the largest US bond holder on earth is in recession too? China is the 2nd largest US bond holder on earth too? If China slows down its economy and reduces its imports from Europe and Japan, it may trigger a deepening economic recession in the UK and Japan. Thus there is a possibility that the UK and Japan will sell their US bonds. If that happens, China will reduce its US bond holding too.

[@user-rn6il1ub1u]

We love this girl ❤

[@Nermalton77]

I don't understand what people expect. Did you really think that China would keep growing 10% every year forever? Given the change in the geopolitical environment in the last 10 years from friendly to hostile towards China i think that it is only natural that China's economy would have to slowdown and readapt. The model that focused on exports to US/UE is probably not going to work so well and they will have to change. But assuming from that that we are seeing the decline of China seems to me like a huge wishful thinking (which honestly is the most usual thing to head from western media). Now they have a much stronger national consumer market and domain most of the most relevant technologies. I don't see why not to expect a recover in a 5 year period.

[@AL-lh2ht]

Dude their demographics are some of the worst on earth in thirty learns their population with shrink like 30% or more. They don’t have that many young people left. And their housing market bubble is currently imploding, and businesses are moving away from them, and much of the growth was artificial like roads to nowhere and even fake numbers, they don’t have a self sufficient economy has their population does not spent much on local goods or invest locally, they are not independent in many of their resources, etc

[@fireironthesecond2909]

As the Big Orange once said: C H N A

[@Redcliffe_]

Guys the CCP has 10 days left trust me

[@michaelotoole1807]

if i had a Nickle for every time I heard. 'you get the idea".

[@theconqueringram5295]

Perhaps, but the economic trends don't look good.

[@dannydenison6253]

Nice job mentioning Purchasing Power, which is a very good way to compare countries together.

[@oooshafiqooo4722]

Peak China is probably last year

[@uriahlevi8640]

More like 2019

[@--Traveler--]

I would agree. especially in regards to chips and such.@@uriahlevi8640

[@dixonhill1108]

More like 2012-2014, most of the last decades numbers are beyond fake

[@nnokki]

@@uriahlevi8640 pre or post-covid? if pre-covid is that the reason why they released the virus?

[@askeladd60]

utter nonsense. China will overtake the US in nominal GDP within the next 5-10 years as the US economy collapses under the weight of its massive public debt.

[@clivematthews95]

I like the new member of the crew 😊

[@_TheDudeAbides_]

Never ask for sub and bell before we have seen what you deliver.

[@donaldjmccann]

Slow down and take a pause once in a while.

[@onlyfacts4999]

Funny how all Western discourse on China always alternates between 'China collapse' or 'China threat' lol

[@YDI909]

I think that things like that are not aiming toward China only, but this is the way our media work... You have to get people to watch your content, and for that you use big words and strong sentences, while in reality everything is s much slower and takes time

[@dr.victorvs]

By the way, when have you ever heard the news "Zimbabwe's economy is stable"? Growing or tanking is just what fits the concept of news. I hate these mindless conspiracy theorizing one-liners that don't go a single step beyond the obvious to try to self-falsify.

[@HistoryBuff_0]

Like those conservatives who are between America is the freest country and boohoo we are being censored.

[@bitch2465]

What th is with the map 4:02? They drop their claims on the himalayas but not the rest of tibet?

[@jwilson544]

This kind of thinking does concern me. The idea that china is losing its influence may lead people to make bets and predictions of what to do after its fall, something were still not sure could happen. China may be struggling right now, but whose to say they won't change course and become more relevant yet again? All those bets could lead to a terrible folly

[@ArabicReja973]

In 2023, real China's economy shrank -3.5% as opposed to 5.2% expansion as officially announced. The shrinking GDP was concluded by trusted Japanese economists.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

Trusting Japan on China is like trusting Iran on America. No major global institution denies that China grew. One paper that made little impact but was latched on to by those who want to celebrate a Chinese decline means little. The IMF, WB, etc. still say that China's economy grew.

[@Kalimdor199Menegroth]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn It grew, but not by 5.2%. Even those institutions admit the growth is half of that the Chinese authorities announced.

[@AhmetTekin101]

​@@ArawnOfAnnwnWell, Japanese are more trustable than the Chinese government for sure.

[@AhmetTekin101]

​@@Kalimdor199MenegrothI don't think it grew. How?

[@AhmetTekin101]

​@@ndukasmithAre you jeolous? Probably he's speaking truth every time.

[@blackbaron0]

A good general pros and cons for the argument. In the longer term demographics and debt may well be the most important factors. Overall though China is a very big economy, and even if it does follow a similar path to Japan, will remain important for decades to come.

[@stuartbarker9373]

Georgina stands out as perhaps the best news presenter yet seen on the TLDR network. Very clear, controlled delivery.

[@sohrabroozbahani4700]

In the heart of chaos lies opportunity... Chinese proverb...

[@carlosdurand434]

Yes.

[@Soumil_Malhotra]

Why do you have only one sponsor?

[@CarlMarxPunk]

When I was a kid (early 2000's) everyone was telling us "any day now China will overtake the world" and now is "anyday now, China is going down"

[@michaelthomas5433]

Whelp guess that's that then. Good thing nothing can change going forward. Phew.

[@DennisTheInternationalMenace]

4:33 Since when is India a part of the BRI?

[@nnf9431]

It's a literal global recession except for in the US because they print the world's most desired currency. Here in Canada we have a housing crisis, food affordability crisis, and healthcare crisis. I visited Hong Kong/Shenzhen in January and I can say the quality of life there is much greater than in Toronto. China popped its own real estate bubble by not bailing out their real estate developers when they could've easily done so, showing that they're never afraid of some short term pain for long term gain. If China has truly peaked economically, you'd know because what's the best way to revitalize productivity? A good ol' fashioned war (probably with Taiwan).

[@KamiInValhalla]

China's economy is plateauing, but I don't think we have reached "peak China" as we have with Japan as yet. I do think it will take a few years for noteworthy growth again.

[@lastChang]

China 🇨🇳 has been a money-printing machine on overdrive. During the years 1990-2021, the US printed 6.5 times more money while China printed 147 times. - It has printed more money than the US and Japan combined, while its economy is only half of them. - Current Chinese debt-to-gdp is already *highest in the world, at 300%,* according to Bloomberg. - With stimulus and measures, China's debt will be at 400% to 500% of its GDP in the next decade, according to Reuters.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

That number is heavily inflated by corporate debt, from companies that will likely go bankrupt at some point. China's debt to gdp is 83% as of last year, which is well within limits. It isn't Beijing that's indebted, in fact China is also simultaneously the worlds' largest creditor abroad. Japan still rules the roost for most indebted nations, although both nations have something in common - almost all their debt is internal. This also makes it much safer, as there's no outflows to foreign creditors and they have more control over it. Hence why Japan never collapsed into an economic crisis even after 30 years like that (not that they're booming)

[@AhmetTekin101]

​@@ArawnOfAnnwnI don't think what you are talking about. Search this query: us debt to GDP ratio according to bloomberg

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

@@AhmetTekin101 No, you don't. US debt to gdp was 123% last year. If you look for US total debt, it was 724% of gdp. The huge discrepancy is cos of what's being counted. The former is the debt of the US federal govt.

[@AhmetTekin101]

@@ArawnOfAnnwn Again, I don't think you know what you are talking about. Search this query: CHINA debt to GDP ratio according to bloomberg

[@darter9000]

An economy reliant on foreign exports will always be hard capped by the economic state of advanced economies. Their ability to avoid the economic slowdown in the 2000s has more to do with labor arbitrage than anything China did and it's finally occurring to western corporations that the cost is too high.

[@zollen123]

It is.. until it isn't.

[@Northern_Sea]

Your video editor keeps making the same mistake in Georgina's twitter handle. It should have an underscore at the end. Now it is someone else's handle at 0:06 in the bottom left corner.

[@mtasapl]

I hope that one day they will have someone knowledgeable do some QC before publishing the videos. Every single video has some mistake. Perhaps one day they will learn about color grading their RAW-looking footage from the studio camera? I doubt that significant saturation change between the presenter and graphics is intended.

[@jonasp8920]

People are gonna ask this same question in 10 years.

[@jonalban4349]

Not gonna mention the belt and road system having been a total catastrophe?

[@JonySmith-bb4gx]

😂February 19 edition, the Financial Times reveals that US Treasury officials have visited China to express their concerns to Vice Premier He Lifeng about support for China's manufacturing industry, the overcapacity of which could lead to an influx of low-cost products in strategic sectors such as wind power, batteries and electric vehicles around the world.

[@hjalmarfreidenvall1655]

Neat

[@michaelhalsall5684]

We live in interesting times! China's economy appears to be slowing whilst the USA seems to be going through terrible social disruption and political problems.

[@SimpleGeopolitics24]

Interesting

[@cydeYT]

Probably not

[@chrisspencer6502]

Yeah I’ve heard this musing for years. Are we pasted peak china, is always a case of people talking about they guy she says you shouldn’t worry about

[@AL-lh2ht]

You do know china population shrunk last year right? And one of their largest companies suddenly declared bankruptcy. And the massive debt? And the housing bubble? Etc

[@jwhite5008]

Economically the peak was in the last decade, perhaps toward its end. Right now they are in a very deep crisis they are desperately trying to hide and lie about. They are far past the point of no return, the situation will not get better any time soon. The question is basically how quickly and how hard will they hit the bottom.

[@hughmungus2760]

@@jwhite5008 property bubbles happen all the time, economies eventually recover.

[@Simalacrum]

Tbh I'd say its short sighted to say that China has 'peaked' - China still has a lot of options to mitigate its economic woes, and could potentially recover it's previous growth.

[@yopyop3241]

What are these “a lot of options”? Their strongest response was supposed to be productivity gains through education, but their sky high youth unemployment rate says that that strategy has failed.

[@MrNommerz]

It really doesn't. Economic mismanagement is much easier than managing growth.

[@kingofhearts3185]

High youth enemployment, low birthrate, shrinking population, and an impending silver tsunami (spike in senior population draining social services) make it pretty clear that they aren't solving their issues.

[@nicoruppert4207]

​@@yopyop3241They gould increase government spending (like US loves to do)

[@Na-xm6jx]

They should do what the eu and us do and open its borders to immigration. That's what allows them to continue growing even with a low birth rate

[@ARandomDonut]

Video's answer: we don't know

[@dVector13]

Yes, but we know why we don't know. So you wont be tricked by china doomsayers and china nationalists.

[@Grawwler]

Peak china happened 5 years ago

[@mdl2427]

4:02 thats not the boarders of China, seems to of gained a chunk of Kazakstan.

[@AdastraRecordings]

Anyone who is buoyed by the US hegemony might want to consider the effects of 34 trillion dollars of debt, plus the complete inability to truly decouple from a global market due to shell companies that can bypass sanctions. This is far from over.

[@christallan8931]

Debt is not a problem if you can paid Japan once had a debt lower than the usa and more money on is bank account but when the 1990 crisis happened Japan economy collapsed not usa

[@AL-lh2ht]

Dude thinks shell companies are magic

[@sheltonnthaks7689]

American medias are pushing this narrative since forever😂

[@zolandia5262]

The date when China's nominal GDP surpasses that of the US is being pushed further into the future every year

[@blakestiteler]

the advert is too much of the video. Just a suggestion from a long term viewer that these TLDR have progressively shortened over time. I beieve this had about 6 mins 30 seconds of information making the advert 20%. it's just a bit too much and is keeping me away increasingly away TLDR videos. constructive feedback from a long term viewer! No ill will intended

[@Triquetra15]

China: We are a green energy exporter US: Laughs in oil

[@hughmungus2760]

even that oil will eventually run out.

[@Triquetra15]

@@hughmungus2760 Then some more countries are going to need some freedom 🦅

[@baronvonjo1929]

It feels like China along with all developed countries have pretty much reached their peaks. Does it really look like any major break throughs or mass increases in standards of living are coming? Not to me. Every thing is just in a slow decline. Basic products are so expensive yet cheaper quality. Man I could honestly just go on and on. But yeah it feels like the end happened in 2008 but we all didnt really see it. Watching whats happened to the economy and world since then shows lots issues that nobody really looked at. Then Covid came and its been pretty much downhill ever since..

[@TisDansk]

China is not in fact a developed country

[@hughmungus2760]

it would seem like the only ones getting any increases in standard of living are the top 1% while everyone is either stagnant or slowly getting poorer.

[@JonySmith-bb4gx]

​@@TisDansk agreed . China keeps on developing. Never stopping

[@sonicmeerkat]

while i do genuinly think chinas military is a paper tiger and their econoly has slowed down, so has most of the worlds, europe by the war in ukraine, africa by its coups, let alone the general pandemic recovery so saying their crisis spells the end is jumping the gun, 2008 didn't kill the wests hegimony it just really sucked to live through, much like 2020

[@jwhite5008]

Their military is not enough to win a war with the US but it is enough to do create enough chaos to drag the entire world into a deep crisis...

[@abdelkaioumbouaicha]

📝 Summary of Key Points: 📌 China's economy has shown signs of slowing down due to various crises, including overdependence on exports, low domestic demand, and unsustainable mortgages. 🧐 Despite economic challenges, China's geopolitical power is still significant, with a large industrial base, regional economic influence, growing military strength, and dominance in green technology supply chains. 💡 Additional Insights and Observations: 💬 Quotable Moments: "China's economy is clearly struggling, but its geopolitical clout and ability to challenge the US are still increasing." 📊 Data and Statistics: China's GDP per capita relative to the US increased from 2% to 28% between 1980 and 2022, highlighting its rapid economic growth. 🌐 References and Sources: The IMF data for 2024, LOI Institute's Asia Power Index, and China's Belt and Road Initiative were mentioned as key sources of information. 📣 Concluding Remarks: While China may be facing economic challenges, its geopolitical influence and dominance in key sectors like green technology suggest that it still poses a significant global challenge to the US. The debate on whether China has truly peaked remains ongoing, highlighting the complex dynamics of power shifts in the international arena. Generated using TalkBud

[@marcob1729]

lol what in god's name is that overlay doing at 4:04?

[@eronpowell6008]

I like this commentator!

[@JYB245]

Peak-ing 😅

[@ameerhamza-sv7wc]

They were saying similar things in past decades

[@NovaeXelon]

Dear TLDR: Please fix your audio levels! Your intro sound @ 0:40 is waaay louder than the rest of the video - in most videos you upload. Its annoying.

[@davidk7262]

I am old enough to remember when Japan was poised to take over from the US as the biggest economy and become the global super power. People spoke as if it was a matter of if not when and that is a county that plays by the rules. We all know how that ended. China is going to stagnate if not decline. They have an utterly enormous property bubble that is going to pop at some point and it is going to set them back hugely. Their economic growth figures have always been a total nonsense anyway.

[@stunstar4553]

Considering Japan's population, land, and natural resources, it is not a matter of time. Japan cannot be a superpower, it is just a regional power that has been influenced by China for thousands of years

[@davidk7262]

@@stunstar4553 You have misunderstood/misread my comment.

[@jatin9070]

​@@davidk7262if Japan's leave USA's shadow and take its military ,political and nuclear decisions based on mainly Japan's interest then japan can again become a superpower bigger than ever before. Their population is good at coordinating and implementing the policies .

[@jaymon9049]

Whole video is a fucking commertial!

[@cameronsteer7708]

“Geo-political clout” is my favourite term

[@rorytribbet6424]

This just isn’t as relaxing as it used to be. I listen to it in the car usually and having a high pitched voice takes away from the therapeutic element the other guys have. She’s very pretty though.

[@Happyman28778]

I think we’ve seen the peak of this type of China, I think we’re going to see a new China wether better or worst. We can see in last 20 years how the country has changed economically for better but also politically became more stringent and autarkic. Depending how the country manages the many differentiation industries they left under regulated in gamble for explosive growth. Now it’s comes in to deal with the risks. If Chinese government can regulate but can’t maintain competitiveness we will see massive political and social turmoil as its Indian enemy becomes the new world contender with the US

[@hughmungus2760]

we're at a point where easy growth is over and china has to content with developed country problems such as asset bubbles and competition from low income countries. But this problem has been tackled many times by many countries so its not exactly unprecidented.

[@Happyman28778]

@@hughmungus2760 it’s definitely not unprecedented but like every other country the hardest part isn’t what’s already been done. It’s how the individual culture and people address these issues. What’s easy to a Chinese man may be inconceivable to an American

[@hughmungus2760]

@@Happyman28778 This isn't a cultural problem its an economic development one. With the right policies and right state led investments, it should be pretty straight forward to move up the value chain. There are several east asian examples to follow.

[@Happyman28778]

@@hughmungus2760 yes the right polices are the right answer but what is seen again and again is what the human element wants. Wether it be Americans individualistic culture making social services a slow moving development to Russians acceptance of corruption & authoritarianism keeping genuine honest businesses a near impossibility. You can have whatever policy and it can be air tight. But people have to want it, even in more authoritarian states like China there governments are till beholden to the people before what is rational

[@captainclarky5352]

China still has room to grow outwards. They have experienced so much GDP growth in the last few decades without being involved in a single war. If they started involving themselves overseas like the USA and Europe, they could force open new markets for exports

[@giantWario]

Ending the video with ''their growth is still strong'' even though you admitted earlier in the video that their growth figures are unreliable to say the least seems weird to me. Yeah, their growth is still strong...according to them. Now I'll admit that since this is China, we don't have access to a lot of their economic data but every data we do have access to doesn't look good. In 2023, during the same period when their economy supposedly grew, their real estate sector collapsed, their entire stock market fell in value by 10%, their annual exports fell for the first time in seven years and their devaluation crisis implies that their household consumption is going down as well. So how could their economy have grown despite all of that exactly?

[@slicer2938]

quite a few reasons actually, during covid their economy slowed down due to the covid pandemic as exports halted. but ever since its opened up again its economy would of rebound from what it was in 2022 and 2021, which still saw growth but considering our lack of data access its hard to assess whether what they say is true or not.

[@kenstravels4922]

Chinas gdp needs to grow because tens of millions are added to their manpower every year so it needs to continue to create jobs

[@giantWario]

@@slicer2938 Once again though, their exports actually went down in 2023 even though they just reopened after Covid. Look it up if you don't believe me.

[@giantWario]

@@slicer2938 Dude, once again, their exports actually went down in 2023. You can look it up if you don't believe me.

[@giantWario]

​@@slicer2938 As I've already said though, their exports actually went down last year. You can google it yourself if you don't believe me.

[@LordBathtub]

Fingers crossed anyway

[@geofflepper3207]

Perhaps this is trivia of no importance but I found it interesting that it is expected that in less than two decades in 2042 the Chinese population between the ages of 65 and 84 will start falling in number which presumably means that by then the only Chinese age group that will be increasing in number will be the group of people 85 years and older as every other age group in China will be declining in number by then.

[@yopyop3241]

Makes sense. China’s biggest birth cohort ever was 1963, and the top eight were 1962-1969. Those years are the “4” in China’s 4-2-1 demographic structure. China has an amazingly contorted demographic structure. Almost all countries have a small Silent generation and a big Boomer cadre, but the disparity in size between those cohorts is especially huge for China. In the rest of the world, the Silent generation is small due to the Depression and WW2; China adds civil war and the Great Chinese Famine on top of those factors. Nothing culls a generation of children like a multi year famine. All countries have big Boomer generations as the return to peace and the need to rebuild boosted non military economic activity; China added Mao-style additional incentives for people to have more babies. Those distortions echo through China’s demographics. And then from there, you throw China’s infamous population control mechanisms that ramped up through the 1970s to culminate in the One Child Policy from 1980 to 2015. Modern China’s story is the story of China’s Boomers, their Boomers’ paltry number of kids, and their vanishingly small number of grandchildren. Hardly any analogues of Silents, Xers, or Zoomers. China’s Boomers’ most formative years coincided with the Cultural Revolution. Think about how the 1960s affected Western Boomers. China’s Cultural Revolution was orders of magnitude more intense. China’s Boomers’ kids are mostly only children due to the One Child Policy. The generation of spoiled “Little Emperors.” The peak birth year for this generation was 1988. If they could only have one child, a lot of Chinese parents apparently chose to target a year that was propitious according to the Chinese zodiac. China’s Boomers’ kids cover a remarkably narrow age band. The latest generation is the children of the “Little Emperors.” The “Little Emperors” were spoiled from not needing to compete for mommy and daddy’s attention. The offspring of the “Little Emperors” didn’t even have to compete with cousins for grandma and grandpa’s attention. This is the generation that is just starting to enter the job market and has been flabbergasted to find youth unemployment rates at record levels.

[@kerryannegarnick1846]

I think it's a bit early to say one way or the other.

[@amcmillion3]

China is in decline in that it can no longer achieve double digit GDP growth. It simply lacks the young population to keep expanding at the rate it has. It is more likely that it enters a period of Stagflation similar to Japan. However Japan's citizens were very wealthy with a high standard of living by the time stagflation took hold and they have largely been able to keep this up. China's citizens are still very poor so it is unclear how the economic stagnation will affect them.

[@stunstar4553]

Since 1990, China's GDP has increased 50 times, and personal income has also increased dozens of times. Nowadays, the income of Chinese people is 3 to 5 times that of India, and I don't think they are still very poor

[@slicer2938]

@@stunstar4553poor depends on what your comparing it against, compared to japan? yeah its still decently poor in comparison but compared to where they came from? they are rich and they feel rich.

[@stunstar4553]

@@slicer2938 The exchange rate between Japan and US dollar has depreciated by 50% from around 100 in 2021 to around 150 now. They are not as wealthy as you imagine, and Japanese current minimum income is about twice that of Chinese urban residents. However, considering that many Japanese women do not work and Japan's high prices, their living conditions are not as large as you imagine

[@yopyop3241]

According to official statistics, China faces the same 4-4-2 population crunch that Japan faced in the 2000s. But everyone acknowledges that official Chinese statistics are garbage, and the Chinese themselves openly discuss their demographic crunch as their 4-2-1 problem. China’s demographic crash is going to be much than Japan’s has been.

[@hughmungus2760]

but china is in deflation and still achieving good growth. Thats the opposite of stagflation.

[@jasonsiu6368]

Asked a question with an obvious answer lol

[@ericjley]

Bay Bee! ❤ 🐝 ❤

[@Wiibiplay]

Problem is, China has a different economic system to the US, it's like comparing apples and oranges, and why China's GDP by PPP is radically different to China's nominal GDP