Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following | Systematic Investor 290

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.
#toptraders #investing #trendfollowing
Episode Summary
01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:38 - Industry performance update
06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?
11:49 - What causes the rising Cocoa prices?
13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following
16:58 - Industry performance update continued
18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?
22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?
30:51 - A period of normalcy
34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative
42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?
46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or bad idea?
52:35 - Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (paper from Man Institute)
57:08 - Finding the optimal allocation
01:04:27 - Niels' different perspective on a trend following allocation
01:07:11 - Different allocations for different situations?
01:11:10 - Too old for unrealistic expectations
Full episode can be found here:
toptradsersunplugged.com/si290
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[@felipesantos1985]

Thanks for posting. Now that Traders Outpost is no longer running, this is the only trend podcast of worth that I can listen to ❤

[@earlyretirement1459]

Managed futures allocation depends on the investing goal. I really only see a large allocation making sense to mitigate sequence of return risk, and hence increase SWR, for a retiree. If you're in the accumulation phase or wealth preservation phase I don't necessarily see a large role for managed futures.

[@user-bv4px3rt8k]

Im 50% systematic trend in core account with bitcoin and PSLDX in the Roth... I am not the crazy one

[@stratos4646]

First

[@mustavogaia2655]

that it - that is the last time I watch an episode with Mr. Beer. I believe the host see something mr. beer can contribute, but compared to other guests, mr. berr's episodes were seemingly vacuous - too evasive or unspecific. I also believe tha tmr. berr can be a good manager, but he is a bad podcast guest.