Cold War II: Niall Ferguson on The Emerging Conflict With China | Uncommon Knowledge

[@jslberto]

Put this man in a chair beside Stephen Kotkin and do an interview that has no time limit or set agenda. Just let the conversation go where it goes. Please.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

Kotkin is insightful and intelligent, but at least regarding China policy Niall is one-dimensional. Wrong, as often as right.

[@themoonman-4]

They are both answerers

[@Rbb0828]

Yesssssss. I’d pay to see it!

[@JamesFitzgerald]

Yeah, my thoughts exactly of bring Steve Kotkin back on Goodfellows. Make Steve an offer he can't refuse.

[@MFJoneser]

@@QuizmasterLaw Maybe. And you’re describing any single person’s possible perspective, by the way

[@jollyroger1009]

Niall said it at the end: the US spends more on debt interest payments than it does on defence. And he also said that a superpower that does that has numbered days. The reason this is happening is largely due to a skyrocketing debt situation that is difficult for the US to get out of (save for a sudden wave of technological innovation creating large new industries in the US), rather than a plummeting defence budget necessarily. Britain got into a similar situation after the spending necessary to fight WW1, with WW2 finishing them off economically. The US seems to be on a similar path now, so given that this is the normal route of downfall for great powers, is there really any hope of recovery for the US? While Niall and others offer probably workable ways out of the situation, history shows that these ways out are seldom followed.

[@jima3129]

GB was out of cash in 1916. We financed the war after that because we did not want to lose what we had already invested. Then we sent 140,000 young men to their deaths, AND we ended up paying Germany's reparations to France. Talk about a bad investment all around.

[@schoocg]

Wish our journalists politicians had 5% of the intellect and historical background as this program brings to light. So well done and enlightening.

[@jhbkuah]

Hong Kong became a British colony through two wars: the First and Second Opium Wars. The Opium Wars resulted in two treaties, each expanding the size of Britain’s Hong Kong territory. These treaties were followed by a 99-year lease in 1898 that allowed Britain to control even more land - a lease that ran out in 1997. China did not take over HK by force.

[@robert8431]

One can not expect a dog to change color! It is the nature and purpose of the Hoover Institute!

[@dictumfactum7784]

Right,ok china bot

[@fozzz-vb5oj]

Opium

[@28119850]

Thank you for pointing out the correct historical events regarding HK that this colonial-minded guy deliberately revised to fit his narrative that UK was so nice to help protect HK for 99 years and then return HK to China out of good heart. He is so delusional to believe his own bull shxx and as an echo chamber of the west.

[@2Hot2]

What's the difference between force and coercion, intimidation, threat of expatriation/abduction for violation for foreign (Red Chinese) laws, etc.?

[@waynecarney4519]

I really enjoyed this interview. A host who did his research and asked thoughtful questions, and who gave his guest the time to fully answer them. A guest who allowed the host to develop their questions and who addressed the questions asked. I want to see more. I specifically would like to hear a more detailed description of the issue discussed at the end of the interview. Specifically, the mechanics / details involved in playing for time. Regardless, many thanks for this.

[@dkstewy]

The interviewer just got the Suez canal crisis wrong by one year. It was 1956 not '57.

[@MrOkadaman28]

Niall Ferguson (like many in the West) simply doesn't get the appeal of China in the global South. It is not about Huawei, Infrastructure or Surveillance - it is about economics. Take Africa as an example, once the Shale Revolution took off in the US, US - Africa trade plummeted (as Petroleum accounted for the bulk of trade between US and Africa). Today, China is by far, Africa's largest trading partner - and you can't compete with trade with foreign aid.

[@SammytyLeung]

Foreign Aids just like a treat to a dog, you will have it if you behaved well. Besides, it creates corruption.

[@janstaes2172]

well said, if you want to look at the interview they did with the leader of the african union. they where absolutely livid about how the west was talking to them. its pushing africa towards china.

[@petercollingwood522]

No. The appeal of China is to the despots who rule Africa and need the ability to stay in power without those irritating Western concepts like human rights, rule of law etc being condiitons of their aid. Petroleum is only found in meaningful quantiites in a few sub-saharan countries. China provides a quick fix to their problems and they are perfectly happy to pay the price.

[@ivancho5854]

God, where to start? How about this: Good luck trading with China without the US policing the seas.

[@張思齊-l8z]

Anglo-Saxons never fail to demonize their opponent and try to claim the just cause.

[@fowchiiiliedpuppiesdied]

Here’s a thought, why not work on fixing our own mess, before we worry about the enemies beyond our borders? All the real enemies, are within.

[@Philip-bk2dm]

Who are the real enemies? Specifics please.

[@cricketerfrench7501]

No they are not

[@geocrystal]

You are very wise. But historians like Niall and other academics insist that the US needs a "clear external foe" to stay united. May it be a big bad wolf or great white shark.

[@mimiginkgo]

it can be and has to be done this way. war is like surgery best for removing cancers. besides, war can test how bad a shape each player is in and why

[@domcizek]

NICE IDEA, BUT NOT PRACTICAL, CHINA IS NOW THE REAL ENEMY, DO YOU WANT TO BE UNDER COMMUNIST RULE? EVERY WAKING HOUR YOU WILL BE WATCHED BY CAMERAS, WHERE YOU GO, WHAT YOU DO , AND WHO YOU TALK TO, THAT IS NOW HAPPENING IN CHINA IN REAL TIME, , WE NOW HAVE OVER 9 MILLION JOBS GOING BEGGING FOR WORKERS, THAT IS WHY ALL THE BOARDER CROSSERS ARE COMING HERE, TO LIVE AND PROSPER AND BRING BACK LIFE TO ALL THOSE DEAD AND FORGOTTEN COMMUNITIES ALL OVER THE USA, AND YES WE HAVE TO FIX ALL THE PROBLEMS AT THE SAME TIME, BUT BE AWRE, THE DEMOGRFIC PROBLEM IS ALSO IN THE USA, AMERICAN WOMEN ARE NOT HAVING ENOUGH BABIES TO STAFF ALL THE FACTORIES OF THE FUTURE, WHTCH MEANS LOWER SOCIAL SECURITY CHECK AND HIGHER RETIREMENT AGES FOR EVERYONE

[@futuresmkt]

An arrogant person considers himself perfect. This is the chief harm of arrogance. It interferes with a person's main task in life - becoming a better person...(Leo Tolstoy). Movie: "Fifty five days in Peking"

[@dasglasperlenspiel10]

Peter Robinson is an unobtrusive but brilliant interviewer. Ferguson was at his best. Uncommon knowledge is a spectacularly good program, if that is not an inappropriate word for a program that merely consists of intelligent discussion about important current issues. I think it is very appropriate.

[@ambition112]

1:53: ⚠ The emerging conflict with China has turned into Cold War II, which is more serious and dangerous than the first Cold War. 6:46: 🌍 The US has shifted its attitude towards China and Taiwan, moving towards a potential showdown over Taiwan after decades of strategic ambiguity. 12:57: 🇹🇼 The control of Taiwan is a high-stakes issue for Xi Jinping, and the US commitment to Taiwan is becoming more important. 18:46: ⚠ The war in Ukraine is the first Hot War of Cold War II and Taiwan is likely to face a similar crisis in the near future. 24:42: 🌍 The US must be ready to contain Chinese expansion in Europe, the Pacific, and the Middle East simultaneously. 32:05: 🌐 China's Communist Party still holds Marxist beliefs and aims for communism to triumph worldwide. 36:36: 💡 China's innovation and economic power pose a challenge to the US, but protecting intellectual property and attracting talent through legal immigration are crucial for the US to maintain its technological edge. 42:57: 🌍 The Chinese model appeals to some people and countries due to its crowd control solutions and infrastructure offerings, especially in developing regions. 48:10: 😳 The speaker discusses the potential consequences of China becoming the number one global superpower and argues against it due to China's attitude towards human rights. 54:17: 🔑 The United States needs an external threat to unite and play better, and China is seen as the major strategic challenge. 1:00:01: 💡 The US needs to focus on buying time and deterring China instead of engaging in a showdown over a distant island. Recap by Tammy AI

[@kennethmarshall306]

There was no conflict except the US fearing that the Chinese economic development model might be more successful

[@petercollingwood522]

Bunk.

[@charliebarton]

NIal mentions the Vietnam War and the divisions it created (notice he makes the divisions out to be the problem, not the war) and then Peter mentions George Kennan. I think it’s worth recalling that Kennan was against he Vietnam War, didn’t believe in the domino theory, and certainly didn’t believe in a global communist movement. Also, Kennan was against he expansion of NATO after the Cold War ended. So, yes, let’s remember some of Kennan’s points of view on these topics.

[@jaymudd2817]

He didn't want Greece and Turkey in NATO either.

[@dimitrioskantakouzinos8590]

How the writer of 'The Pity of War' became a leading neocon will never cease surprising me.

[@constantquestioning4010]

US neocon money?

[@EllieMaes-Grandad]

"There is little value in ensuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it.” quote from JFK

[@JR-tl2ym]

Taiwan is on the other side of the planet. It has nothing to do with preserving American traditions

[@johnpruett5258]

JFK learned the hard way that the deep state runs the country.

[@Johnny-dp5mu]

Show the other two comments!!!!

[@madogsioux5636]

Latter day America has enthusiastically but perversely surrendered its time proven traditions. As a historian of considerable weight and scope Nail Ferguson should know this better than anyone else.

[@AugustusOmega]

why are your traditions paramount? do you even comprehend the quote?

[@bingosunnoon9341]

What do you do if you're weary, broken, burnt out, rootless and without hope? I don't know either but I'm pretty sure starting a war with China is not it.

[@B.H90]

not for average folks like us, but YES,,, for the politicians and the big donors ,,

[@thomashutton1963]

Russia is indeed all the things you say but I doubt they're planning to start a war with China

[@Juergen732]

Those are your words Bingo.. millions of immigrants are pounding on the door wanting to come in because they see America as the last best hope.

[@Zero-wu8sk]

我们甚至不认识彼此，为什么要和我们开战😂😅😅😅

[@martinlord5969]

I thought you were talking about China there until the end of the sentence, but apparently not.

[@PointduNord]

As educated as this man is, he has completely missed the point. America is rapidly collapsing internally. No one even has to fire a single shot.

[@kiwigrunt330]

That's because half our population (not only the USA) are functioning as China's useful idiots. Not only China is (neo?) Marxist.

[@tonysu8860]

I thoroughly disagree that America is rapidly collapsing internally. Alexis DeToqueville also saw only chaos and lack of direction in the American democratic experiment. Those who believe in the principles America is founded on believe that the country thrives on progressive liberal individualism where every person is given an opportunity to do something with his life and for himself. There is room for discussion about autocracy, fear and discrimination but no one who believes in America would truly believe in things that bar opportunity and limit the right to vote and self govern.

[@willraley1789]

Whatever problems America has, China has far worse. Even if our young people are brainwashed, China doesn't even have young people. America still has people, even if they are vilified, who push intellectual, technological, and business boundaries (Jordan Peterson, Elon Musk). China only develops by stealing technology and ideas from foreigners. Even if America does collapse, which is absolutely not a given, we will still come out on top, because China will probably collapse no matter what, but there are things that we can do to mitigate our future problems.

[@nkristianschmidt]

subversion is the most important part of a cold war

[@grantperkins368]

The statement mentioned during the interview that went along the lines of "the Chinese have everything and America looks like it's heading toward some sort of civil war" sort of said it all, but was quickly skipped over 🙃 by these exceptionalists😂 , who would probably like to sanction anyone outside the USA who set up a supermarket as well, coz supermarkets are AN AMERICAN INVENTION GODD DAMN IT! 😂

[@jorarch1]

Thank you so much for such a great interview with Niall Ferguson. He really gets to the heart of the matter.

[@JK-tr2mt]

We all live under heavily surveillance societies, whether we live in China, UK, US, EU, etc. We are really all ruled by oligarchies. Political ideologies and systems make little difference!

[@peterliu2961]

Uncommon Knowledge is one of the few programs that get my brain run - love it.

[@buravan1512]

they lie to themselves...

[@charliebarton]

In comparing the present situation with the Cold War, let’s remember that, during the Cold War, our leaders weren’t corrupt semi-literates, and our debt to GDP ration wasn’t completely unmanageable. How the hell is the US expected to wage some sort of conflict with China when we can’t even get out of our fiscal dead pool during peace time? We’re looking rather British Empire circa 1938. The difference is, in 1938, the British military was paltry compared to Germany, but their economy was immense. Now, the US military is enormous, but it seems we’re on the verge of some sort of economic or debt crisis. The F35 is unaffordable already, wait until the parts cost 2X as much because the dollar’s buying power collapses.

[@videre8884]

😂😂😂 Politicians are always corrupt and lie........ If something seems different to you today than it used to be, then it has to do with you and not with politics. Politics has always been deceitful, corrupt and an obstacle to real civilization.

[@EricFapton]

The F-35 will become cheaper over time.

[@EricFapton]

None of your comment is based on fact except we have debt. There is no indication the economy will collapse.

[@jinliu1198]

An all-out nuclear war would solve all your problems. The congress and the supreme court will be vaporized because they don't have the shelter that the president has. So after the war, there'll be no debt ceiling and the government can do whatever it wants. China is building its nuclear weapons rapidly. It may be on par with US and Russians in one or two decades. I think the possibility that the US president launching a surprise nuclear attack on China in the next 5 years is very real.

[@Anthony-jo7up]

China has 3x our debt to GDP.

[@lwty]

As Mr. Ferguson talked about market economy in China, take a little time to think about this question, if current CPC is a Soviet style or Mao-era party, why would they allow such a large scale of capital to flow in the system. If you go to a fourth or fifth tier city in China, symbols of American capitalism like Starbucks, KFC, Apple are everywhere. So what people are fighting for in this called Cold War II? US politicians say it is about democracy and freedom, as if the CPC gonna change the way of life in the West. Come on, there are so many issues on its own development, China does care about what kind of system other countries choose. And from ancient times, Chinese people do not think people from far way countries to be able to learn Chinese way of life. Keep the thought that China has inferior innovation for lacking of freedom. It is not a bad thing for the other side to continue to make false judgments if they really think we should fight.

[@tonysu8860]

Actually Xi is a return to Maoist leadership and a departure from China's other leadership since Deng (which is a weakness of this video's discussion that doesn't recognize this difference). After Xi took some time to consolidate his power, he did exactly as you said he didn't which was to enforce laws making foreign capital investment, loans and ownership illegal in China. Recently though, Xi's leadership has recognized the folly of destroying global financial relationships with China's failing exit from Pandemic lockdowns and needs outside financial help through its current difficulties. In fact, there's a lot that Xi's central CCP leadership is rolling back in the way of promoting nationalistic isolationism... The "3 red lines" is no longer being strictly enforced to try to get the Real Estate market going again, the Real Estate loan defaults that placed foreign currency bonds at the front of the line and restrictions on stock ownership on the Chinese exchanges by foreigners is being relaxed. In other words, absolutely Xi tried to remake the Chinese economy by killing off domestic capitalistic practices in an effort largely to gain more control and beat down the social and political strength of the wealthy but is finding that was very misguided and it may be too late to reverse the collapse Xi initiated.

[@madogsioux5636]

Americans are full of themselves even as their dollar is fit for the toilet.

[@lwty]

@@tonysu8860 CPC would not sacrifice prosperity to gain more control. 1. Sacrifice prosperity, e.g., more regulations and less market mechanisms, would not necessarily give you more control 2. CPC already have enough control, they don’t need too much more. 3. CPC’s grand target (and the underlying legitimacy) is the rejuvenation of China. So prosperity is a must and actually is the precondition to reunify Taiwan, while reunification itself would not bring you prosperity. The market mechanism is still largely in place in China’s economy, CPC is not so naive to jeopardise it. About foreign capital and ownership, you can go to any Tier-2 or Tier-3 city in China, there are plenty of Starbucks, Peer’s Coffee, Tim Horton, etc. And they are crowded with people.

[@MikeHoffey]

Brilliant. I learned a ton. Niall is obviously articulate, and laid these world scenarios out with clarity.

[@DavidDavoDavidson]

The way peter sets up his questions is great

[@jaysphilosophy1951]

Get off the guys nuts....

[@Namuchat]

No, it isn't.

[@cheekhoonchan1627]

a former #1 world power advising a declining #1 power how to deter a rising #1 power a spectre haunts the collective west... the spectre of _common prosperity_ (Pax Sinica)

[@egverlander]

Your naiveté is exceded only by your ignorance of history. What a fool you are.

[@rodbutler9864]

Never in the field of human conflict, were so many words used to say so very little.

[@clancyhughes]

Great discussion. You spoke of a nuclear threat during the Cuban missile crisis. I served during the Korean War, not so cold. You may not recall that K.F. Dulles negotiated against Russias further participation in the Korean conflict with a dozen Strategic Air Command bombers, B36s, fully armed with nuclear bombs, flying holding patterns just outside of Russia’s 12 mile limit off Russias Arctic Coast. Note how close that came to Stalingrad. Still classified, even scarier incidents occurred.

[@DieFlabbergast]

What!? Stalingrad (now known as Volgograd) is thousands of miles south of the Arctic Coast. It's only a couple of hundred kilometers north of the Caspian Sea! Were you thinking of Leningrad (now renamed St. Petersburg?

[@BaronTaiwanese111]

Pursuit of deterrence is pursuit of peace. The more mental and physical preparedness we have, the less likely the hot war will arise. Thank you.

[@maxwayne9087]

My god what an enlightening interview, and that's coming from a Taiwanese American immigrant who's supposed to know these things. Taiwanese people are most certainly very well informed on the China issue, but some points that Dr. Ferguson brought up, no one is talking about in Taiwan, and they should. And even more thankful for Dr. Ferguson to set the answer right once and for all, on why Taiwan doesn't boost it' defense spending, looking like leeches on US military might as a result. The answer is a simple, practical, and perhaps a bit sad. The truth is that Taiwanese PEOPLE are not rich, a few certainly are, but wealth is certainly not distributed. The poor needs dire help, and even though they are not getting any, any political party in control understand that any additional military spending will not be met favorably at the polls by the majority poor citizens, when the questions of war, or even unification with China sometimes (or as self-governing districts under Chinese-rule), are still on the table. No country wants to spend money on defense when those money can be used for helping out citizens in so many ways, unless the people are convinced, unitedly, in an upcoming war, and the need to fight. And right now, Taiwanese people have not made up their minds on either.

[@uncread]

Brilliant,brilliant,brilliant interview,god bless KZbin for moment like this!

[@MrBallynally2]

Yes, if you think in terms of enemies and win or lose this will always be the case. However, the framework being put forward us not based on hegemony like the current US global order. China does not have the military capacity and is also not trying to build one. Ot is vastly different from the kind of ground zero after ww1 and ww2. But, if the US continue on this path ww3 might be around the corner. Lots of fans of the current aggression towards China.

[@kevinjenner9502]

Yellow Peril rhetoric is part of public policy.

[@donkruuz3903]

Love how Americans can always make things have that happy feel good ending even in interviews ... there is no going back for China, it's full steam ahead in their own ways. China is like the US in the 1920s just that the rest of the world doens't know it. They have lots of space to grow.

[@Eric-kn4yn]

Then why one China and taiwan

[@drscopeify]

Not true, the reason is that China is authoritarian so it needs to maintain domination over the currency for use with stabilizing the economy the USA gave up control over the Dollar to international markets. Today a leader of any country can buy as much Dollars as they want and then use the Dollars to manipulate their currency to sell Dollars and buy their own currency back. This is bad for the USA as it means that other nations have more power over the Dollar value than the USA does other in times like recently when the rates rise in the USA but these are short term events and soon enough power over the Dollar returns back to global markets. China cannot afford to let their currency become fully floating or they will lose control over it to international markets and players like the Dollar. Even the Euro which is the REAL enemy of the Dollar, not RMB it's the EURO that is the enemy of the Dollar but regardless, even the EURO does not just let anyone buy as much as they want. If you know how Euro works you will know that there are controls over it who gets to buy how much. No such limitation with the Dollar. The USA is probably more worried about the power of the Euro then the RMB due to the actions of France which seeks to counter the USA within the western sphere and while France will never match the USA it can try and manipulate Europe against the USA which is problem. I would dare say France is more of an issue then China. Why? Because China has never been a military power, it has never proven itself and it has avoided conflict since the end of the Sino-Vietnam war which did not end well. China lost some 30,000 solders in about 3 weeks of war while the USA lost 60,000 in 20 years in Vietnam, if China had committed to stay in Vietnam how many men would they lose? 2 million? 10 million? China is not a military capable nation and it might have some fancy new ships but it still isn't today. A cold or hot war with the USA will be a major risk for China that could destroy the credibility of the CCP and tear it down internally.

[@petersmith3953]

@@drscopeify Europe needs to up it's game to assist the US to contain China, the Ukraine war seems to have changed things , the Germans are going to substantially up their defence spending , about time too.

[@Bk6346]

@@drscopeify You don’t even know the history of the 1979 China-Vietnam War. Deng Xiaoping told Jimmy Carter and the Soviet Union who were allies of Vietnam that it was limited war to punish them for their involvement in Cambodia.

[@Saffsa]

@@drscopeify so False . Modernised Nuclear Capability of Today's China is Clear for all to to see bar the Self Righteous Arrogant . Its Economy is far greater than US despite Rhetoric to the Contrary . If China decides to take Taiwan it will occur despite the US and it's over Hyped Military superiority . The US has a history of meddling in the affairs of poorer Nations with weak military capability for the theft of resource under the guise of Democracy and sphere of Influence . The US is an Economy in Decline . A Declining Empire . China is an emerging World leading Superpower on all levels

[@gautamkumar007]

A CIA employee mascurading as a intellectual 😂😂😂

[@tyme5837]

whatever happens, please, no war by any parties involved, no invasion of taiwan

[@Allgood33]

"China took Hong Kong." Returned? "In the mind of the Taiwanese people, they are not Chinese." Except they speak Mandarin, their culture is Chinese and they are Han Chinese?

[@edsteadham4085]

So Canadians and Australians and new Zealanders are British. They speak English their culture is English.

[@edsteadham4085]

Oh yeah they all look alike too. You forgot to add that

[@Allgood33]

@@edsteadham4085 Now, if we care to be technical, when was Taiwan an independent country? Spend some time to read the Taiwan Constitution and find out it also consider Taiwan as part of the Mainland, or to be more exact, Mainland as part of Taiwan. Go on.

[@peterhe7887]

It’s stunning and extraordinary listening to 2 superior being telling each other how they are or what they represent and how superior they are! They are so full of themselves they have find ways to belittle the rest of the world out side of their superior race. I would suggest to both of them try to understand the concept “state competence” that Martin Jacques said about the emerging governance model. Well, second thought maybe not, simply because of who they are…

[@intothemoat]

When a technology is made open source, it's available for the public to use and develop. That is not stealing..

[@peterreston6478]

A better than excellent discussion of the China issue. Dr. Ferguson has captured the high ground of modern Chinese studies. His conflict appreciation is superb.

[@dancerinmaya6813]

I had much expectation for Ferguson on the basis of his academic background, but he proves himself a non original thinker: he had opportunities to observe and attains real insight, but he fell into Western propaganda lines of the US imperialist without understanding of the nuances of geopolitics. Many facts he cited are wrong, which shocked me a bit as many facts are well known; his reasoning mediocre and weak. 1. HK issue: For example, I am from HK and witnessed the whole thing during 2019 to 2021. To be fair, HK is a part of China is an indisputable fact, but Americans would even think they should interfere, which is outlandish. To be fair, US did do stuff, and lots. The US orchestrated 2014 occupy Central, and CIA/NED orchestrated the whole violence in HK in 2019-2021, the violence against my city was horrendous and evil, which turned me against the hypocritical West. CN central gov didn't do anything even when mainlanders were beaten publicly in HK, it left everything to a weak HK gov which was incompetent and foolish so the savage continued for over two years, ppl worried about their own safety b/c those blackshirts could pour oil on you and light a fire if you disagree with them. The only thing CN central gov did was the State Security Law in the end, which stabalized HK. HK is still highly autonomous and enjoys tremendous freedom (Ferguson's statement about CN took it back was a lie). HK has a very unique function that no other city in CN has, HK's special region status might continue even after 2047. Ppl who cannot even have the insight to see through that are not qualified to talk about geopolitics. 2. Taiwan issue: Ferguson basically admitted that the US recognize TW belongs to China, and the only thing that changed is the US' plot to up its game against China (and to rob Taiwan of its semiconductor industry). First of all, Taiwan reunification is very central to the Chinese hundred year humiliation. Ferguson kept on talking about as if reunification of TW is the CPC's evil plot, in fact, it's the opposite: it's 1.4 billion Chinese' ardent wishes and strong will, no party could afford to go against it, certainly not CPC. Secondly, The history of an unfinished civil war is what leads the two sides of the straights apart, the US' shameful intervention played a very big part in it. Another part is PRC replaced ROC (the gov on Taiwan) to represent China, which, together with one China TW is part of China, is recognized by the UN, US, UK, and a total of 181 out of 194 countries in the world. TW is fundamentally different from Ukraine, which is an independent sovereign country which enjoyed a seat at the UN before USSR collapsed. Americans are ignorant and they are brainwashed to believe Taiwan is a country itself, so using your orchestrated survey as evidence is circular proof. Thirdly, The West has no moral ground to talk about "self-determination" unless the UK lets Scotland or Hawaii to go independent first. Consent of the host/mother country is also requirement of current international law. Finally, the US no longer has the military capacity to beat China at China's door steps, and your manufacturing capabilities cannot sustain you...those ppl who want to defend Taiwan militarily have no clue of reality. In addition, Taiwan is a small island, which has no strategic depth like Ukraine, and is easily cut off from everything, including military aids and oil/natural gas (it has a storage of only 11 days and 7 days in summer). Currently, the only sure advantage the US has over China in West Pacific is its submarine, but there are only so much you can do with submarines. 3. Demonization of CPC and Xi may be your primitive instinct as you've taken China as enemy, but not objective nor recommendable. One must always strive to see things objectively, then take a side, or you can take a side and still try to see things objectively. CPC/CN gov has the overwhelming support of Chinese ppl (I don't believe you are not aware of it as you lived in China)--Harvard did a decade long tracking in China and 93+% Chinese are satisfied with Chinese central gov (you can easily find it by google)--Chinese have a long history of revolution, and are not docile as the West imagine. CPC gov has done right by Chinese ppl--this is important for Chinese. The West demonize them, announcing to the world that Western views are more important than those of Chinese on Chinese matter and Chinese government, and that only West preferred system is valid, it is ridiculous, and will only backfire. You yourself will not like to be treated that way by other ppl. 4. CN is the largest trading partner of 140 countries, but never comment on their internal affairs (except in quarrels), nor intervene in any country. CN does not insist that others must live like Chinese, in fact, they cannot--Chinese system is more a meritocracy couple with pragmatism rooted in 5000-year history (yes, it's 5000 years, check Liang Chu culture), nothing beat Chinese culture, and nobody could change China. CN was conquers a number of times by foreign intruders in history, but all of them were absorbed into Chinese culture, even socialism had to adapt to Chinese circumstances to become socialism with Chinese characteristics. 5. Ferguson's comment on Putin's invasion must have gotten Xi's consent is bogus--how could anyone lack the basic understanding of geopolitics and CN and still famous for the trade? CN and Russia have a much more complex relationship, CN does not form military alliances, and Xi was made at Putin noticeably at G-20: it's basically a match made in heaven by the US. 6. It's avoidable, and the key is Taiwan (Singapore PM Lee). The US is so crazy under the pressure of bipartisan cutthroats, many ignorant politicians vying to prove who is more anti-China (despite it's shooting the US on the foot), it's a completely anarchic state, White House has no control (things are under control in CN, they could ask Chinese to be super warm to the US if necessary), but nobody is in control in the US. So your government is forced by the anti-CN propaganda brain-washed ppl to be super hawkish, even when the US obviously needs help from China. The governance is no longer effective, your so called democracy (plutocracy in fact) has failed: the financial crisis threat, the debt ceiling showdown, and the Biden-Trump showdown. Your country has no energy to devote to its ppl, that's almost tragic, and you ppl are thinking of sending troops to Taiwan, which is an island you openly admitted as a part of China. 7. If it happens, the US will lose, and China will win. Stop projecting your hegemonic & imperialistic thoughts on China, nothing will happen, everyone will trade peacefully. It would be a much better place than now. Of course I am aware it is possible that Ferguson understands all those, but chose to please the host, despicable but understandable.

[@egverlander]

Your writing reflects a deep fear of the CCP. It's easy to see through your desire for obedience.

[@dancerinmaya6813]

@@egverlander your perception is off by 10,000 miles.

[@alvinseah5423]

Very good comment

[@snowlee-ml7rr]

Americans now think China is a threat they raised. It seems that the decisions made by the previous president were all wrong. For example, what was the reason for the United States to win over China in 1972? Isn't it to fight against the Soviet Union? The collapse of the Soviet Union, the victory of the US in the Cold War, can it be done without the help of China? Just like the Americans are now wooing India to fight against China. In the future, if the United States wins the competition with China, it finds that India has risen enough to counter its own power. Do Americans feel that it is wrong to win over India now? Americans have been making mistakes and only see immediate benefits without long-term plans. For example, the Americans supported the Taliban against the Soviet invasion. The Americans supported the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran, what happened? I think from a long-term perspective, what Americans need to do now is to fight for China and jointly maintain world peace, otherwise there will be a second China. Americans do not want to be the second, are they willing to be the third in the world? Are you willing to accept that India's strength is higher than that of the United States? If you are willing to accept India, why can't you accept China now?

[@snowlee-ml7rr]

Westerners, especially Americans, are not willing to believe what you say. Although what you said is true. They would rather be biased and think that they are right, and think that you are brainwashed by the CCP, that you are out of fear, and say something that goes against the truth. In fact, Westerners are so wrong, I guess only Westerners who have lived in China for more than ten years really know what happened in China.

[@Ben1159a]

As usual, outstanding, simply outstanding.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

they're repeatedly wrong about basic facts, but don't worry they can't speak Chinese (but Chinese people can speak English)....

[@DudeGuyWho]

We need to hardline the expectation that those we protect do materially more to protect themselves.

[@thiamhuatang5109]

Why does Niall Ferguson try to revise history? In 1978 when I was in a Taiwanese army camp, on it's wall it is stated clearly that "Taiwan will take back China and unite the country". So from the Taiwanese perspective, it is unambiguous that Taiwan is part of China. It doesn't matter what Ferguson thinks or says, Mainland China and Taiwan is part of one China. Ferguson should revert to a position of intellectual integrity as a historian.

[@lidiasantoro3098]

Kissingers ill advised escalation of the Vietnam war and his stubborn support for it, led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. He was hardly a great Diplomat, and was involved with many bloody dictatorships in South America. Many of his secretive endeavours there were unethical and even illegal. Not a fan.

[@Rbb0828]

Kissingers key error was the fact that all of his decisions were based on the belief the USSR would live another century. And for all we know, had he not engaged and advised as if they would be around in constant struggle against us for another 100 years perhaps they would have!

[@DanielMartinez-lz3ot]

China has body part farms. Russia starved 6 million people in Ukraine so they could show the west that electricity had modernized Moscow. I prefer Kissinger to slave labor, how about you?

[@useodyseeorbitchute9450]

"He was hardly a great Diplomat, and was involved with many bloody dictatorships in South America. Many of his secretive endeavours there were unethical and even illegal." Setting aside issue of how effective he was, aren't "secretive endeavours there were unethical and even illegal" part of job description of a diplomat?

[@kevinjenner9502]

We first found out about the Nixon/Kissinger CIA Coup in Chile via the Church Hearings of 1975.

[@tomconservative1074]

Very interesting thought Lidia…Do you feel the same way about our policy in the Ukraine even though at this point we haven’t sent troops…yet.

[@kanweiwu7339]

War or Peace will be only issue facing the Taiwanese people for the presidential election in early 2024. However, we Taiwanese are culturally and ethnically Chinese and our country is formally named as the Republic of China. In theory, the Civil War, democracy vs. authoritarianism, is still going on without any armistice or ceasefire agreement.

[@xgguo3531]

The "American Suez crisis" event will benefit Asia ，Africa or South America, the same way as British Suez crisis event benefits the world and US. Niall takes the developed countries(US/UK) higher living standard as granted, but Chinese people are aslo working hard for the same or better living standard, which is not given by anybody. Deferring China rising means the damage of average Chinese people living standard, which will backfire Americans as we can see.

[@rumchjoe]

The war in Ukraine is a land forces war. The potential Taiwan war, will be a naval battle and also a battle with long range missiles. These scenarios will draw on separate reserves of weapons; the resources to support Ukraine's fight will not diminish the resources to support Taiwan.

[@matthewmmichalski8293]

Everyone in America should watch this and wake up to reality!

[@Pdotta1]

Niall is a lot like Steven in that they think Chinese history started in 1950.

[@petercollingwood522]

No. He doesn't. He's simply aware that modern China is not the same thing as the Quing dynasty.

[@jimmyboy2]

In keeping the context relevant. Yes, in recent history, China wasn't much in the 50 years prior. They only talk of Britain and Germany in the last 100 years too. This is what is relevant... unless you think talking about the Anglo Saxon invasion of Roman Celtic England is useful, oh and there's those annoying vikings and scots too 😂

[@Pdotta1]

Those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it.

[@TheRealLanceCummings]

No, Peter. China did *not come up with some kind of new model. (~**42:00** mark) China was gifted a tremendous opportunity by the West to participate in the *existent* model. And because it had a population with a strong work ethic, and absurdly low wages, everyone was happy-particularly Wall Street. Happy that is, until the bet that the West made, which was: "If we help them create a middle class, they will become burghers and put the knives away", went bad.

[@kevinjenner9502]

Nixon’s vision was that of leading them away from the Soviet Union.

[@jasonjean2901]

Yeah, because that's what the west does, help countries get massive middle-classes. Seriously? China got to where it was by, not only having minimal worker's rights, but by creating a lot of Special Economic Zones, where workers lost almost all their rights. They toiled endlessly to raise themselves up with the breadcrumbs that the west provided them. Unlike almost all developing nations, they used these circumstances to build up their country into an economic powerhouse. Only an extremely ignorant person thinks that the collective west was benevolent investing in China. China, through the sacrifices of its people, made itself the best option for investment and slowly climbed the value chain. Now, as wages increase, that investment is going elsewhere, as everyone knew it would.

[@kevinrich5222]

Did the United States put away its knives because it became a bourgeoisie? When did the United States put away the knife? China's per capita GDP only needs to reach Japan's level, which is about half of that of the United States. China's total will be three times that of the United States, and it will become an invincible Godzilla. The military strength and political influence will also be three times that of the United States. The elites of the United States at that time would definitely not think as stupidly as you did. Do you think they would want to create such a terrifying China? Whether such a China is democratic or not, the United States will lose its hegemony and become a puppet of China.

[@paulwright2264]

The knives I see are all American.

[@goodtalker]

My neighbor comes from a long line of Marines. His son and daughter have declined to serve based upon their race. (I'm sure you can image what that is?) While China amps up what looks to be an invasion of Taiwan, our so-called leaders have no clue. God help us.

[@danielramon962]

Such an outstanding interview... many thanks!

[@cami-v5x]

why should we be risking an American Suez with an island on the other side of the world? - for profits of arms dealers

[@falldog9]

Such a terrific programme.

[@rockydopeydoge6730]

The Joint Declaration over Hong Kong is not just an agreement with UK, it is an international treaty.

[@blafonovision4342]

I think the Chinese are going to be a bit more occupied with finding food and energy.

[@jamesdallas1493]

Absolutely, China needs exports to pay for the oil and food. Invade Taiwan China’s exports to the western nations would cease. The Chinese leaders love the money from trade. They use one party rule so they can live the good life. The CCP will remove Xi from power within a year.

[@tyko2686]

Great! Let’s fight China to the last Taiwanese, just like how US fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, Bravo America!

[@JieSuCabc]

Thank you very much for the great conversation.

[@gotshot8355]

Great analysis 👍 100% agree

[@vincehilaire720]

At 33:42, my thought when I heard "...the Standing Committee of the Politburo is re-reading Marx and Engels" was "How do they stay awake?".

[@sandipmistry5218]

Brilliant really good conversation

[@dimitristsagdis7340]

the presented facts about GBP and Suez are factually incorrect. Already by 1954 the USD made 48.5% of global reserves currencies, while GBP only 43.4% so the GBP had already lost dominance as the global reserve currency, before the Suez canal. Of course the Suez canal did not help for the GBP subsequent trajectory, but overall one could even say causality runs the other way, with Suez being a last hurrah attempt to reassert the descending GBP dominance. At any rate the great leveler and springboard for the USD was WWII cause after it the US had all the gold and its industrial base, while the UK had neither - just a series of colonies that were seeking independence.

[@brucemoose926]

Well, the Brits did fight to keep the Falklands off the coast of Argentina, but then again, the Falklands was and still is British.

[@BigMathis]

56:43 America needs an external foe? This statement explains a lot about why America does what it does.

[@rickking886]

Let’s replay this interview 15 years from now. By then we all can tell this interview has its merit, or just utter ideological B.S.

[@AugustusOmega]

its dog sht, I will save you the wait

[@romancandlefight1144]

"let's wait til after the Nazis to see if there was any reason to worry about them"

[@ArtfulDodger566]

Anyone remember Chimerica😂

[@ssuwandi3240]

China's shaking up Arab League was necessary counter towards NATO expansion. The first mistake made by Biden admin aside from other mistakes / sanctions followed suit.

[@THESEVENDON]

It’s propaganda.

[@Batterybus]

What does "win" even mean in Ukraine? Haven't heard an answer to that.

[@thestardusters7640]

At 30:33 Mr. Ferguson states that a Russian officer gave the order to a nuclear weapon. My information is that the captain of the submarine was asked if they should (not fire) a weapon. The captain is reported to have replied "don't bother. If the Americans wanted to sink us they would have already done so." I was a Navy pilot tracking that submarine at that time.

[@TheRealLanceCummings]

Ferguson, when asked about whether Zelenskyy was pivotal in the failed Russian attack on Kyiv, misses the whole point. If Zelenskyy had fled, Ukraine is lost. Period. And it was extremely brave of Zelenskyy to have stayed, and rather small of Niall to not acknowledge that straight up front.

[@IP-zv1ih]

100%. Amazing no one else picked up on this. Ironically I believe that historians of the future will.

[@MrBallynally2]

Giant caveats in your arguments. Russia didnt lose the early offensive. They had no intention of going into Kiev. The targeted the airport and supply hubs and tied the northern ukranian forces to their spot. Then they took parts of Donbas, Mariupol etc. For keeps. Ever since then Russia has been fighting a succesful war of attricion.

[@dmp1520]

@@MrBallynally2 how do u know this is this ur opinion or do u have info? i ask cause every pundit and mouth all over the media has been yelling for a year how the russians have been losing and losing, in kiev, karkhiv and kherson.... one just doesnt know who to believe...

[@kavirajanr]

@@MrBallynally2 Its an unconvenient truth not aligned with the narrative Russia failed to take kiev in 3 days which is again a false narrative pushed by the western propaganda.

[@lioicomestai3703]

@@IP-zv1ih Oh, ye. But I thought the world recognition of Zelenskyy's leadership was there from the beginning of the invasion was.

[@intothemoat]

Taiwan wasn"t a democracy until late 80s and by then the world has recognised Taiwan as part of China. So this whole argument is bollocks.

[@gbear34]

r u a bot

[@earth9531]

America First!

[@sheavelte2917]

I'm glad the Guest is very knowledgeable about the China constitution, under both the mainland of China and Taiwan Provice, which still has the same ONE CHINA POLICY . And it's recorded at the UN. Western countries, led by the US, the NATO, etc, stop stirring the mud around the world. Let the earth be peaceful.

[@NineInchTyrone]

It was Kissinger policy to build up China. Way to go Henry. Thank you WalMart shoppers !

[@josephpadula2283]

The idea was to build up China as a counterbalance to USSR’s power. He did Not say empty the Midwest ‘s manufacturing base and ship it to China! Any low wage/tech work was supposed to go to Mexico! Trump tried to massage Putin to use Russia to counteract China but the made up stories in the dossier limited his ability to use Russia. When Biden took over Putin was enemy number one but the weakness of the administration emboldened Outin to invade Ukraine. So now we have Russian Nukes And Chinese manpower With economic power against us. Now with BRIC currency coming along and Muslim countries seeing US support for insanity like Trans everything we lose Saudi Arabia etc too? Glad the Adults at Foggy Bottom are back in charge!

[@AFuller2020]

People like cheap shoes, they could have bought the more expensive US or Euro brands… they didn’t.

[@kimchiba4570]

Rememebr if we Chinese hadn't invented compass and movable printing machine.. You'll still be stuck in Europe with your white

[@kimchiba4570]

​@@AFuller2020 would you pay more money +?

[@AFuller2020]

@@kimchiba4570 nope

[@cagdasdirik]

This is an amazing discussion. Thank you both - very much.

[@mysterioanonymous3206]

yeah just go man they'll have a menu with pictures then just swipe that credit card man it's only USD 299. avocado smoothie is on the house...

[@yvonnemoore6313]

Neil has his own lens to look at the world.

[@ycaShen]

I agree that we Taiwanese need to spend more in defending ourselves, currently it's 2.4% GDP. But I also would like to know how much of that is decided by the US. I mean, US government doesn't green light every weapon on our shopping list. In 2021 there is a news saying that Trump in his 3 years at the time approved 15 billion worth of weapon sell to Taiwan, more than Obama's 14 billion in 8 years. I don't think Taiwanese government suddenly doubled our shopping list per year, it was the US deciding how much they want to sell. (That's part of the reason a lot of Taiwanese like Trump. He is not afraid to call out China when China does their bullying thing, and he is more willing to sell weapons to Taiwan)

[@garypowell1540]

Bad analogy. Cuba at that time had had its revolution and was being run by a Marxist Communist government under Castro. I assume that Taiwan would still be under its current nationalist government. Therefore it would not be a blockade of a potentially hostile country, it would be a defensive operation more similar to the Berlin Airlift, or the Royal and US navies sent to the China Sea to protect Australia from invasion by the Japanese. Also, the US and Royal navies are already in the area, so they won't be going very far, and have allies in the surrounding area with deep ports, ship fueling, and repairing facilities. The Soviets had no such thing while floating about in the Caribbean during the early 60s. IMO, the US Navy, and others have all of the cards in their favor. China would have to have had a collective mental breakdown to attempt to invade and hold Taiwan. Hitler could not even cross the relatively tiny and benign English Channel while neither the US nor the Soviets had not even entered the war. China would lose 100 for every troop it managed to land on a Taiwanese beach, and then what? It is not going to happen now or at any time in the future, if it does it would rapidly become a conventional massacre of awesome proportions and gain China nothing for the massive sacrifice of manpower, equipment, trade, and reputation. In many ways, China is in a much worse situation than Russia to be fighting any wars anywhere, but most especially one involving an amphibious landing while being constantly observed by all kinds of modern technologies. France invading and occupying the UK would be a more likely scenario, and that is not going to happen either.

[@paulhwbooth]

Is Dr F. gradually losing his Scottish accent?

[@virginicaanderson1569]

He is developing American exceptionalism!

[@rodrigobauler8287]

Correlation of forces is a concept that has its roots in Hegel’s history, Marx’s economy-politics and Bolshevik revolutionary narrative. The Soviet concept was by Lenin (not Stalin) and most likely influenced by his readings of Clausewitz. The Soviet concept fails to include morale and individual belief in its formula. Great talk as usual.

[@pauloman21]

thank you for the perspective

[@jjforcebreaker]

Very interesting interview, as always. Thank you!

[@michaelgourlay1746]

China has unfinished business with Taiwan resulting from 1947/49 when the KMT fled there with the national treasures. It's a domestic issue. US needs to understand the historical reality.

[@jinliu1198]

Perhaps China wouldn't be so keen on Taiwan, if US haven't been supporting it and using it to provoke China in the past decades. Consider Cuba back in Cuban Missile Crisis versus Cuba now. It's not that important that you directly rule a not-that-big island offshore. But it's not acceptable that your enemy controls it.

[@gkumar8169]

How can Niall be blind to Kissingers policy mistakes that have made this cold war 2 so real and calamatious?

[@JeffThePoustman]

To what extent is innovation based on ignoring intellectual property law? Not asked snidely-- genuine question.

[@kennyg1358]

The reverence for Kissinger was concerning.

[@Eric-kn4yn]

Kissinger said we had no idea on what would happen at end of ww2. 😂

[@FarideLadak]

We were always under the threat of nuclear fire power as well as nuclear power plants failing, and all the other unknown to most possibilities for nuclear disaster (s).

[@vladimirdosen9767]

NF still lives the British Empire trough US reincarnation. A bit of the "Lord of the rings" as well. Comparing US (UK) "democracy" and China "comunism", I am not sure where Mordor exactly is. What sort of business Scotland have, meddling between two parts of China. That is interesting question. Never crossed the minds of both of great thinkers. Scotland should design their own semiconductors in Glasgow, because they are so innovative these days. Love your work.

[@antpoo]

I will liken it to when Drake and friends called the Spanish bluff. It like in the lion kingdom the young male just knows when it’s time to overthrow the alpha. It’s a sense, we all sense the US is finished.

[@netizencapet]

The Cold War framing of 20th Century history is silly and arbitrary. The more appropriate lens is that of great power rivalry - the rise of the US as the caretaker of the British Empire following the 2nd World War and the attempt of the US to weaken its peer competitor, the USSR, followed by a brief period after the latter's collapse, to quickly build up the USSR's rival, the PRC, in hopes that its latent potential might simultaneously be directed towards a growth compatible with US interests and also help dismantle the US labor movement which was a threat to the US elites crafting the trade deals with the PRC. All of the phasic developments are best characterized as great power sphere of influence competition rather than Cold War this, Cold War that. There is no division of periods, only logical developments in the same arc of rivalry for hegemony.

[@jacklucas7265]

We have a "Fifth Column" in this country which Mr. Ferguson neglects to mention. That is, the large multinationals and the Blackrock type financial enterprises that funnel money and technology into China and abandon American business. Our educational/research organizations that take money from China and place Chinese students and scientists in the heart of advanced technical research. Those students and scientists are PLA. We have venal and corrupt politicians at the highest levels that accept bribes from the Chinese and the spread of their largess to the families of these politicians. We have bureaucrats that provide money to researchers in China that unleash a plague on our nation and the world. Finally, the entertainment business that cast a blind eye to the evils of the CCP in order to gain access to the Chinese market, meanwhile excoriating American society as racist and without merit.

[@pedrob3953]

It's just business as always.

[@andymcrae4661]

Karma will come

[@lioicomestai3703]

So good, Thumbed you up! I translated yours into Cina to let Cina people read it. Shame you, CCP! FGLU! 料依 [翻譯] - 我們國家有一個弗格森先​​生忘記提到的“第五縱隊”。也就是將資金和技術注入中國而放棄美國業務的大型跨國公司和黑石型金融企業。我們的教育/研究機構從中國獲得資金，並將中國學生和科學家置於先進技術研究的核心。那些學生和科學家是解放軍。我們的最高層有貪污腐敗的政客，他們接受中國人的賄賂，並將他們的慷慨分給這些政客的家人。我們有官僚向中國的研究人員提供資金，這些研究人員給我們的國家和世界帶來了瘟疫。最後，娛樂圈為了進入中國市場而對中共的罪惡視而不見，同時痛斥美國社會種族歧視，一無是處。

[@davidcpugh8743]

Talking head with violins. Nice. My grandfather was in WW1 and great grandfather in the Civil War. I was Nam. I made sure that my sons and grandsons know to avoid a war. How do we man an army if this spreads among veterans, whose descendants are the primary source for our military. It’s very nice for the national leadership to always focus on the next election. Sad. There is a price.

[@joramneumark8557]

Is it about "democracy" and "free market economy" go "dictatorship" and "communism", or is it about countries that no longer accept the rules of the game of the weakening empire and rebel against it?

[@jdzentrist8711]

This helps me understand Chinas outreach to the Global South that features so prominently on CGTN. So, put me down in the antiwar camp. I believe in reliable homeland security, and far fewer military bases around the world.

[@thomashutton1963]

Those 'bases round the world' are key to the defence of the US.

[@dialsforstupid]

Only because of China's aggressive stance, do I support the United States countering existing incursions. I do not understand the lacking response of recent administrations to China's unrestricted warfare practices(cyber, economic, political, espionage and elite capture bribery especially in new Zealand Australia and Canada) The fact is the United States' has to respond or effectively surrender. I believe our perspectives differ, but China's immediate neighbors are no allies. Claiming the international waters towards the south being but one example, constant border disputes with India being another. Korea and Japan are unhappy with China's regional influence including it's relationship with North Korea. South East Asian nations are manufacturing rivals of China who frequently buy weapons from the United States and are unhappy with naval incursions of international waters(especially the phillipines where China's nine dash line actually overlaps their sovereign ocean territory) China's neighbors and the United States are unhappy with these forms of aggression and really need to stick up for themselves. I do not want war, but ignoring the aggressive posture is much more dangerous and likely to trigger a major war than a proportional response followed by negotiations President Trump made many mistakes, but he did manage to negotiate some de escalation only AFTER imposing tariffs, I wish president Biden had continued these seemingly successful policies. I may be from another world, so perhaps I see a different one. That's my perspective, I wish you the best. The eternal truth cannot be spoken, the earth is mother of ten thousand things. Thank you for reading so far.

[@elizabethfitzgibbon3908]

What a great change to have beautiful music too!

[@wilsontseng2886]

Very disappointed that this famous professor is so foolish, misleading and naive. He is not interested in understanding Chinese system and philosophy; he only cares about maintaining Anglo-Saxon hegemony.

[@constantquestioning4010]

Could not agree more

[@Eric-kn4yn]

Whats wrong with that better than China white race vanishing unwanted alien migration to white nations safe prosperous rule of law a wonderful package China doesnt offer and there asian

[@KlKl-k4x]

"China took Hong Kong"? What is he talking about? 😂

[@THEScottCampbell]

Britain did NOT try to deter Germany from starting two world wars. Britain STARTED two world wars by backing France, which initiated BOTH wars against Germany. The first was to back their Russian allies, who mobilized first. The second was to back Poland, who attacked ALL her neighbors in 1919 and illegally occupied East Germany, which the LeagueOf Nations required them to vacate by 1927. Poland created their own problem and both France and Britain courageously refused to challenge the USSR, proving the dedication to preserving Polish sovereignty an utter lie.

[@mariaelenalevigion2681]

An exzellent & highly intellektuell Diskussion....so knowleadgeable....

[@thegeneralist7527]

Great analysis as always.

[@tuathanaich]

Taiwan can marginally better survive a blockade than can the CCP. When 85% of your energy and food comes from overseas (and a few destroyers, let alone a few carrier task forces, can blockade that supply) and land access to food and energy is limited, you are in serious trouble.

[@laqueenawilliams4762]

Sure. Let’s go to war. More tax money wasted

[@Grenadier311]

Which is why China is fortifying the SCS and building a blue-water navy (impressive cruisers) at break-neck speed.

[@snslifestyleorg]

A blockage is a declaration of war. You think the US would risk LA, Chicago and NY? Go back to your cave.

[@snowlee-ml7rr]

China has no shortage of food, and China's self-produced food is enough to feed its own people. China imports soybeans and corn from the United States, Brazil, Argentina and other countries to make feed and alcohol. But energy is relatively scarce and needs to be imported. However, China has good relations with Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan and other countries, and can guarantee energy supply through them. So there is no such thing as you Westerners say that China must rely on the energy supply from the ocean. Westerners don't understand China at all. It is all obtained some false information from some strongly biased media.

[@choijulian6704]

blocking China? That immediate means declaration of war. All the just reason for China to unleash its military power to anyone who does it, including the US.

[@HouseholdDog]

You know, the US could always try diplomacy for a change. If Ukraine has taught us anything, it's that the US really can't fight a major war.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

the USA will be constrained to sane policies because they like money and Chinese do too furthermore unlike Britain the USA is home to millions of ethnic Chinese. They're gonna keep doing business racists and imperialists fantasies to the contrary.

[@kevinjenner9502]

4/28/2023. Armed Services Committee Hearings..Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen Christopher Cavoli..”I’d like to underline your comment about the specificity of the degradation of the Russian forces…much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict..

[@peterwebb8732]

Diplomacy was what gave us "Peace in our time" in the late 1930s. Now we call it "Appeasement" Oh, and one of the reasons that the Axis declared war on the US was exactly what you just stated -that America would not fight to victory. How did that work out?

[@Rbb0828]

If anything Ukraine has taught us diplomacy with authoritarian states is POINTLESS. What planet do you live on

[@MrBallynally2]

Isnt that exactly what Putin has been thinking? That it is pointless to deal with gung ho absolutists like the US/UK hawks?

[@steve-real]

intensely interesting, that said it’s a lot premised on hardcore ideology rather reality.

[@prr665]

But what happens to the world economy if China invades Taiwan and semiconductor production is stopped? What are the ramifications of that?