America’s Immigration Puzzle, Iran Strikes (Out) - And 60 Is The New 40 | GoodFellows

Nearly 40 years since the nation last saw comprehensive reform on the matter, the consensus is that America’s immigration system is sorely in need of updating to 21st-century realities. Reihan Salam, Manhattan Institute president and author of the book "Melting Pot or Civil War?", joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss a smarter approach to welcoming newcomers to America. After that: the fellows discuss the ramifications of Iran’s not-so-surprise missile assault on Israel and what the coming months portend for those warring nations. Finally, John and H.R. (and a few surprise guests) welcome Niall to his “swinging 60s”-Hoover’s “international man of history” officially a sexagenarian on the same day this show was recorded.
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
The opinions expressed on this channel are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University.
© 2024 by the Board of Trustees of Leland Stanford Junior University.

[@StephLin6897]

Happy Birthday Dr. Ferguson! Having crossed the same threshold 18 months ago, 60 truly is the new 50. You’re an inspiration to us all on many levels. Keep fighting the good fight! 🙏

[@PSYC101-uh1ls]

It's so nice to hear people who disagree, talk and put there cases forward without falling into a heated argument. Thank you for providing this.

[@divine-rational]

Only show on KZbin I never miss.

[@hostashevsky]

Another crucial problem is that the majority of today's immigrants legal or illegal comes from non-christian non-democratic societies, from societies where the ideology of anti-Americanism prevails. I'd like to know what is the percentage of Muslim, Asian, African and Latin American immigrants in the total pool of newcomers, the rate of their contribution into American economy and culture. It would be great to compare these numbers with the contribution of the immigrants of the past. I.e. analysis of the immigrants effectiveness. On the other subject: professors of Muslim and non-Muslim provenance who propagate anti-American, antisemitic ideology among American students should be, in my view, immediately fired from the universities teaching positions. Also, once we talk about higher education: in my view, the federal law must prohibit foreign funds contributions from the hostile regimes (Qatar, China, Russia, Iran). Our higher education is being sold out to a higher bid regardless of what ideology is channeled by those contributors.

[@saimbhat6243]

Boohoo!!! What goes with freedom of religion and freedom of speech and freedom of conscience? And what about america not doing dirty tricks in middle east and asia and thus has no need to "tolerate" the orientals? You want to dominate every part of the world, yet you want nothing to do with "them". Go into isolationism as far as your policies in middle east and asia are concerned, and just close the gates and stop all the pretensions as being the ideal bleeding heart daddy of the world and believe me you were not welcome there to begin with. Be real MAGA.

[@Mimicry161]

Absolutely agreed. We could also forcibly deport Americans that are not effective citizens (low education, low income, unemployed, SAHMs), and take in more legal immigrants to take their place in America. I also liked your point about professors, and I think we should extent it to include Anti-Russian and Anti-Chinese or any kind of hate speech. We live in a peaceful society based on Christian values and we can't have any hate like that leaking in and disturbing that.

[@jamesj9537]

What in God’s name are you blathering on about? Get out in the real world and talk to people.

[@samruttenburg7235]

The birthday wishes for Niall were a very touching end to this episode, loved it

[@rostamr4096]

My favorite KZbin program.

[@tb8865]

Just build the wall and drastically reduce legal immigration. In the Middle of the 20th Century we had no net migration until 1965. America is addicted to immigrant labor and it is not going to end well if this addiction continues.

[@hostashevsky]

How about distinguishing first between legal and illegal immigration?! Also, scolding the White House various administrations for disregarding the immigration laws?!

[@Notthatguyjustsomeguy]

How about watching the video before commenting?!?!?!

[@TheVeritas2100]

***(BIDEN) White House various administrations for disregard the immigration laws?!**** HELLO< IT IS BY DESIGN .. the DimokRats want to DESTROY the American Republic, the American Experiment where the INDIVIDUALS is FREE ! ( guarranteed by the U.S. Constitution)

[@jbmsamba]

Which used to be the biggest strength of the Canadian system over the American mess. I saw 5 minutes and stopped to vomit.

[@laurenglass4514]

Will you talk about crime? Law enforcement?

[@joshuap9580]

in what regard? there is no correlation between immigrants and crime. most immigrants try to avoid the justice system so they wont get deported!

[@Salty-TX-Assholy-io]

4:26 Here's an idea from a big thinker in Texas about we just closed the border and then think about it for a few years

[@JohnCorrUK]

Happy birthday Niall, what a joy to listen to your podcasts and read your brilliant books . Thank you 😊

[@lynnelee4390]

Theres already too many citizens that cant get those h1b jobs. Cochran lives in a bubble

[@laurenglass4514]

Will you discuss our college graduates not getting jobs that visa workers get?

[@jesuslovesaves2682]

What about people not getting into college (or their preferred college) because pressure from international students push them out? Or US students not getting scholarships due to it going to an international student? It is interesting how John made is sound like legal immigration isn't possible. Yet I know many people here working, buying homes, raising a family (friends of my children and other family) who are here on visas and have been here for a long time. Some are on visas and others are now citizens one way or another.

[@justinflannery8671]

I can tell you the likely thrust of John’s response; there aren’t a fixed number of jobs. Plus with the unemployment rate below 4%, I’m sure there are plenty of areas where a college education is a requirement and employers are struggling to fill vacancies.

[@SandeepSingh-bw9fe]

The story of human kind is a story of movement, migration, and immigration. The notion of nation states - the premise of the argument- is a recent phenomenon. I came here from India at the age of 10 along with three younger siblings. Two of us served in the US Army and went on to become successful lawyers. The other two are NYPD cops. My dad was a cab driver and we never accepted a dollar of public assistance. You’re painting with a very broad brush.

[@timthetiny7538]

Anecdotes aren't data. Maybe your law degree should have included a stats class.

[@petercollingwood522]

The story of human kind is a very broad brush.

[@omacburma]

At first I preferred HR, but over time Cochrane has shown his worth across a whole host of topics. So glad they are still doing this show.

[@ellentuchler7103]

Another great show! Always thought-provoking. Liked John Cochran’s comment about us having an ‘assimilation’ problem vs an immigration issue. Middle East discussion sobering but I suppose it’s ‘ever thus’. Happy Birthday, Niall Ferguson!

[@golfbulldog]

You think that all immigrants are equally assimilatable?

[@mattostrosky6863]

You all seem to gloss over the fact that a political party can funnel new comers to states to adjust the population to influence voting strength.

[@Notthatguyjustsomeguy]

Except they literally talk about that exact point.

[@kennethyoung2221]

The people on the panel are not expected to do any homework before the discussion. And notice VDH was not invited to the party.

[@OliverLiam-px3vx]

Navigating social security can feel like traversing a complex maze, doesn't it? It's essential to have a guide.

[@laurenglass4514]

Will you discuss culture to immigration

[@woodrow60]

I believe that’s the assimilation problem. People from some cultures will assimilate into western countries more effectively than people from certain other cultures. The west needs to discriminate again.

[@hazelsam13]

John Cochran just coming in hot and summing up the problems perfectly. Preach brother. Neil said “John” and he went off! Fuck yes

[@crwmdp9]

Niall, Happy Birthday! From one sailor to another!

[@nathanngumi8467]

A great episode, and happy birthday Dr. Niall Ferguson!

[@MFJoneser]

Special guest. Very rare, nuanced arguments put forward. Warm wishes, gents, and humble gratitude.

[@tetianavarvynska2125]

Happy birthday, Neil! Many happy returns!

[@ElijahLim]

And Happy 60th Birthday, Dr Niall Ferguson! Oldfellows. Deadfellows. Thanks for the chuckles. 😊

[@edgarroste7855]

Speaking as a Canadian, I completely agree with your guest’s comments about Canadian immigration woes. Stephen Harper and governments before him had it right. Unfortunately our current government is incompetent in so many areas. Sadly, as a result, they have poisoned many Canadians attitudes towards immigration and blinded us to the benefits.

[@ronaldtkacz1309]

The problem not discussed is limiting ideological corruption amongst politicians. Their focus should be on establishing policies that are best for the citizens already living here, best for America. Allowing 14 million unvetted migrants to roam around the country at will without a job is NOT in my best interest, nor my neighbor’s best interest. It only serves the interests of politicians who enrich themselves from doing the bidding of Soros.

[@paratka2]

The immigration discussion should happen again, but with VDH in the mix.

[@alexanderblyakher5480]

Happy birthday, Niall!!!

[@jasminealixandranorth]

Bagpipe Happy Birthday!! Cherry on the top. Wonderful show with some of my favorite people (including birthday well wishers)! Looking forward to another decade of inspiring conversations! Thank you!

[@vich1393]

A marvelous discussion by all, and with answers to many major questions provided as ideas from which to generate even more. All it takes to answer any questions posed is a bit of research on any computer, and devoting the time necessary to assimilate the additiional information provided. Well done guys!

[@hofii2]

The bag pipes at the end! Well done.

[@vz6365]

Niall Furguson, on behalf of a few fans of yours among an academic community in a country that sees you as a subversive force, happy birthday and live looong!

[@jonswire-thompson2476]

Absolutely my favourite KZbin commentary. Well done all of you - and Happy Birthday Niall !

[@davecorley5514]

Enforce the law. If the citizenry are convinced that existing immigration law must be changed, change it using Constitutional methods. Doing otherwise encourages moral hazard.

[@b52-hnukesr69]

Amazing how these three guys forget most people are not wealthy like they are. Sitting in a privileged position sure puts blinders on other wise intelligent men.

[@simonnilsson5356]

Can you be more specific?

[@nealljones]

So happy that you 3 (and other guests) get along so well. Happy Birthday, Niall (from another Neal)!

[@Brummly84]

Happy belated birthday Niall!

[@DanteAlighieri78]

Happy birthday to my favorite historian!

[@woodrow60]

Happy 60th Niall Ferguson

[@richarddodson560]

John’s insights about 1/3 of the way through are on point!

[@listenup455]

Happy birthday, Niall!

[@MrJoel9679]

Good fellows is one of Hoover’s best media contributions to thinking in society at large. It needs more views. Great to see complaints in the comment section… it must be working.

[@bobsnow1996]

Happy Birthday Niall... I've read so many of your books I feel I can call you by your first name... I loved the Happy Birthday on the Bag Pipes, I was in Normandy on June 6, 2007 and two French Policeman armed with Bag Pipes played Happy Birthday to me at Bénouville Bridge (AKA Pegasus Bridge) in France. Since then I have been very partial to the Pipes a very fond memory. So, all the Best Wishes on your Birthday and for you to finish Volume 3 of Kissinger... you are truly a Good Fellow!

[@TRFan26]

Happy belated birthday, Nial. I’ve come to enjoy each episode of Good Fellows because I learn something each time, and I love hearing topics being discussed in a thoughtful and passionate way. Well, that and for the occasional comedy of the group not taking themselves too seriously. Keep the hits coming, fellas!

[@jhrielly]

Happy birthday Niall! Thank you to the team. Insightful and enlightening.

[@davidwarthen779]

Happy Birthday Dr. Ferguson! I was surprised you are now 60... you look much younger.

[@edwardb7811]

It is great to have smart people explore important issues.

[@TimCoghlan]

🎉🎉 happy birthday Niall 🎉🎉

[@jimhallinsn1023]

Gentleman thank you, another brilliant talk on current affairs.

[@motekm3]

3 “conservative” white guys advocating for more immigration. I love these guys! Cochrane articulates a first principles thinker. Start with what is right legally and morally, then address the root cause, then think about solutions. When democrats and republicans agree on restricting legal immigration, one should be suspect. I know I’ve lost jobs to H1B holders but that means I need to work harder/smarter. No hard feelings.

[@ukraina91]

So on point when they talked about Stephen Harper's government and their immigration policy being great 👍 Many Canadians will agree!

[@Gorbyrev]

Happy birthday Neil from the old country where it has been a spectacularly bad week for the SNP, even by their recent standards. There's a birthday present.

[@elliott1tom]

Happy Birthday, Young Man!

[@jesuslovesaves2682]

Happy Birthday Niall! The age my Dad passed a few months into retirement. I pray the lot of you many years beyond and maybe one day be the humble fellas. Anyway, good discussion blessing to guy been praying for you guys. I definitely learn some thing from guys and appreciate you even when we disagree, maybe at times more so there. Maranatha

[@hrvojesvetec3058]

Happy birthday Nial😃👍🎂🥂

[@lost.projects387]

Congrats Niall Happy Birthday! Loved the messages, you’ve had quite an impact to many of us in the wild too, long may that continue.

[@senturi9645]

Thanks to Politicians….US is done !!! Feel bad but it is the truth

[@bearcat729]

Happy Birthday Niall. See your wife describe you in her eyes says it all. Have a good next 60 years.

[@FinnGriffin]

I have been waiting on you “fellas”!

[@VytisMaleckasBrunius76]

Happy birthday, Niall! Awesome greetings! I am gallous, because I am 62..already. GBU! .

[@sandipmistry5218]

Brilliant episode fertility and immigration needs a whole show so interesting! Israel is the series everyone watching Fauda has nothing! It’s gonna be hotter summer than House if the Dragon. And Finally but not least a very happy 60th Birthday Niall , I only wish I look as good as that when I’m 60 and can still Ski ⛷️! Hope you had fun celebrating!

[@lawrencefrost9063]

This was 10/10. Amazing to see Ayaan in this cameo as well. I just bought her book.

[@glennmitchell9107]

John Cochrane asserts that migrant workers don't negatively affect the welfare of our own working poor. Where has he provided the numbers to back up that assertion?

[@raymondlambert8804]

if the senate bill had passed so we could process asylum claims in 6 months rather than 3 years a major part of the problem would have been resolved

[@benjaminlarkey8562]

Thank you. Thank you for the rational, productive and enlightened discussion about immigration. I LOVE what you guys are doing for the Country!

[@shakthidhasan4544]

Happy Birthday Niall Ferguson. I too am an April 18er❤

[@ma6inka]

Best show on youtube !

[@user-oi9iz9jr8y]

Love you Niall❤️❤️❤️. Happy birthday!!

[@steveedmonds5592]

Happy birthday Mr Ferguson

[@RutwikPandit]

The speaker was absolutely not clear in what he wanted to say. Dare I say it sounded snobby. Wish he discussed some actual policies about legal immigration

[@behzadmassaband7898]

Happy birthday sir enjoy thank you for making me feel More intelligent watching your KZbin videos and 21 books you are amazing teacher oxford Harvard and Stanford you are loved by everyone I am more smarter because of you looking forward for second valume of Henry Kissinger book 🎉🎉🎉

[@user-gh7zh9lo7e]

Happy birthday !! Neil Ferguson !! What a historian !!

[@chrisjeanneret5091]

As a Canadian I would agree with the analysis of Canada under Harper, to a degree. As I understand it the rule of thumb for years was immigration at 1% of the population per year, around 400k. That certainly has been exceeded in the last two years. There is also a problem with foreign student admissions, to the point of diploma mills popping up to exploit students. It didn't help that some of the provinces capped tuition, encouraging universities to depend heavily on foreign students and their unlimited fees. Both groups are adding to an overheated housing market as was pointed out.

[@jesuslovesaves2682]

I agree with Reihan that if the GOP embraced Latin American immigrants and part of Asian they would find more support and could reframe this discussion away from the Democrat narrative. I see more common ground there is realized.

[@judge4all]

Looks like the Phillies are gonna have a tough season. Let’s go Giants!

[@letdaseinlive]

I could be doing something serious but I'm here...

[@hollywoodlibertarian4227]

This guy does a great job telling John he is wrong. 😂😂😂😂

[@ansonbrooks101]

i'm no expert but i was just looking at the graph and the population is steadily rising, so how is it that the idea is that we don't have enough people or don't have enough workers adding up? i'm not really an anti immigration person, but it seems to me that there's this idea that there's all these new people and it's going to make everything better and yet the graph shows we're going up this all is so confusing i quit

[@lawrencefrost9063]

Population growth, though increasing overall, varies in distribution and composition globally. Developed countries often rely on immigration for growth as native-born populations slow. Despite this growth, labor market imbalances persist due to mismatches in skills and demand. Aging populations compound these challenges, increasing retiree proportions relative to the working-age populace. Immigration, if managed effectively, can alleviate these imbalances by supplying skilled workers and fostering diversity and innovation. However, realizing these benefits hinges on sound immigration policies and societal acceptance. In summary, population growth's implications are complex, influenced by factors such as economic structures, immigration policies, and societal attitudes, necessitating a holistic approach for effective navigation.

[@lawrencefrost9063]

I'm just kidding that was dumb. Islam will take over the world. The West is at peril.

[@jacqquelinetackaberry5450]

Aren’t these the “elites” that got us into this disaster 🤑🤷‍♀️✌🏼

[@LizSchubert]

Can’t even stomach this discussion. They need to pay taxes and not be given free rides.

[@ostevoostevo1592]

Good fellow? Happy birthday to a Great Fellow! (and fellow Arsenal fan)

[@dirtunderMYFEET]

Niall is perfect

[@bobbregazzi2925]

Two points that i need to pick up on , the guy who said the English NHS couldn't manage without the foreign doctors and nurses WRONG , if you take away the 27 million Immigrants that have come to England in the last 30 years then the NHS would be managing perfectly fine . Plus the guy who said Immigrants DON'T hold down low wages WRONG everybody knows they do , plus how would he know they're not coming after his job are they now ..

[@patrikjohansson5939]

The problem with islam is apparently that we haven't built enough houses for it. Thank you mr Cochrane - I think I'll use my own judgement on this one.

[@jolantamsk3894]

Canada's schools, Ontario to be specific, are overflowing with various families from different cultures. Special classes (e.g., learning dissabilities, behaviour) that we need most definitely - got cancelled due to funding!!! Newcomers, students with hardly any english language skills, end up in existing classes floating about. Again, there is no funding for extra support.That is the reality.

[@christopherrobbins9985]

Why is fertiflity falling? That seems to be the question that undergirds much of this. This is worth studying.

[@kangzau1006]

Puts a lot of power in the person deciding whether an immigrant transitions to permanent. Sounds like it's back to the drawing board

[@goldfishi5776]

Nations are profiting from their exile of these people. The US should charge their host nations for the local cost of their visits.

[@jesuslovesaves2682]

36:30 Big thumbs up John

[@jamescole1786]

4/19/24..so Happy 60th Birthday Neil!...you look much younger without the beard...hummm...that's why your other 'Goodfellows' ( all +60) have such 'clean shaven' happy faces😊aye?🎉

[@siuwong4588]

39:37 I listened to Piers’ show. One of the latest one with an Iranian professor (?). It’s quite difficult to listen to but he gave some interesting views about Iran’s strike (I mean Iran’s tactics). Is that true?

[@siuwong4588]

47:43 Okay, John has answered part of my questions. So indeed Iran was using old cheap dirty weapons to “consume” the west’s advance expensive weapons 😂 Then is the second part also true?😂 Those missiles or you name it hit Israel are indeed the advance Iranian weapons are the west cannot block these?😂😂😂

[@freespirit6209]

Didn't know, so 2 days late, but nevertheless Happy Birthday Niall!

[@averynunley8872]

Professor Ferguson, can you write an article or small book on how history repeats itself with a focus on ethical relativism?

[@nancychace8619]

Thanks for sharing some good discussion. Tend to agree with H.R. on the situation between Iran and Israel. With Iran and especially with Russia, the focus has been on defense. But little has been done to ultimately stop the aggression in terms of offense. The best defense is a good offense. Putin wouldn't play near so many games if he got handed more of a dose of his own medicine. The last thing in the world I'd want to see is the beginning of WWIII, but to let these situations drag on and on is akin to doing nothing. I agree Israel has done the right thing not to let this escalate out of control. I'd really like to see the hostages released. Wrap it up and move on. Give Putin something new to chew on. He might think twice about pulling another stunt next time. It's getting too expensive otherwise. Wish Niall a belated Happy Birthday 🙂

[@stooge389]

I will point out, "all you have to do is walk across central America" is REALLY not as easy as it sounds- Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala are all almost nothing but jungle- which if I remember correctly from my days in the Military-Jungle boot camp, "50% of the stuff in the jungle is trying to kill you, and that doesn't even include the enemy", and then in Mexico they can either traverse the GIANT fucking mountain range in the middle, or the jungles on either side, that both then lead into extremely inhospitable deserts... I'm not sure that's definable as easy. To me, that says, THEY REALLY want to be here.

[@joshuap9580]

its funny because the whole concept of monitoring an immigrant, ensuring they are "contributing" etc. while it makes sense, strikes me as totally opposite of a libertarian, hands off, market will take care of it, approach where they will either succeed or fail of their own volition. covid i think also showed that when jobs dry up, immigration recedes, and when jobs come back, it increases. "if you walk across the border and make a baseless asylum claim, you are able to gain access." yet the GQP hasnt/wont update the asylum laws....doesnt make any sense. IF recent immigrants cant feed their kids, and its not clear this is the case, its because we have a pricing system in this country aimed at people making $60/hr, not aimed at immigrants making $10-15/hr. "assimilation problem?" every single ~7 year old child of an immigrant i have ever heard speak (and i live in CA) speaks fluent english and is immersed in american culture, thank the public school system for that. which is the say that by the 2nd generation, assimilation is well underway, it just takes (small) time. its an interesting point about always having an influx of low wage workers and effect on your overall economy, would be curious to know how Japan (an island with from what i understand very low outside immigration) differs from us.

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

"Plenty of room". We do have alot of room still and we obviously need to build more housing. We need that now for the current population. That said, im not particularly interested in seeing the country built up to capacity with housing, businesses, etc.

[@ftm21stCentury]

We have a self sufficiency test for each New legal family based immigrant. Then after arrival they are barred from public assistance for at least five years. Medicaid is not allowed for one who has not paid 10 years of US taxes. SNAP is not available for the same period. I find it’s deceiving to not present facts clearly.

[@salex5412]

The death of over 500,000 US mostly working-age young men (5 million by today's population) in the US Civil War (1861-1865) required a massive immigration surge over the next half century not only to replace those men lost but also to finish settling the western half of the United States while filling the jobs needed for rapid industrialization. The question we face now is how the massive influx of immigrants over the last 50 years and today will operate in an economy and job market that is about to be impacted by Artificial Intelligence and its potential *elimination* of jobs -- even if the US does decouple from China and expand manufacturing again. And while jobs have been lost in the past through industrialization, computers and the Internet, the question is, on scale, will AI eliminate more jobs more quickly than in the past?

[@terencefield3204]

How very American this is, and how bloody irrelevant to the migration problems found in all other receiving states