"Hot Pocket 2.0" Kalibrated Live #97

After the retreat from the previously threatened encirclement in the Nevelske Pocket or for the fans of my show "The Hot Pocket", Ukrainian forces find themselves in yet another encirclement situation "Hot Pocket 2.0". Will the Russians advance quickly enough to cut off the remaining safe supply lines before the Ukrainians can withdrawal or will the AFU retreat just continue?
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#Ukraine #Russia #podcast #debate #geopolitics #politics #military #global #news #update #economics

[@MikeJenson-e7u]

Russia has a winning military strategy, Ukraine and NATO have a PR strategy. The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.

[@zzbudzz]

And many of the villages of Ukraine quietly smolder ...hell of a price to pay to realize they will never get the Donbass and Crimea back. Half million men dead for nothing ...

@@zzbudzz they will get thoses back dont worry

@@MikeJenson-e7u russia never won a war by himself

[@TheArgos]

greetings from Germany .. you are doing great work here ! appreciated

[@peterrisbergs7156]

Kursk invasion failed? Does this mean Zelensky gets guillotined?

[@graemepeters5717]

Zelensky has proven that he is capable of accelerating the demilitarisation of Ukraine by 20%, losing more than 15,300 UA troops plus 1,053 armoured vehicles in the Kursk area alone! What a stunning accomplishment by Russia! Combined with the more than 60,000 troops the UA is losing each month in the SMO, 16,810 this week, 'it should all be over by Xmas'!

[@roblegendary8154]

Wow Ukraine lost more equipment in Kursk than they have on the whole Frontline inside Ukraine and by your math Ukraine must have had the biggest army in the world if they are losing that many men that fast. You people are a special type of dumb. 😂😂😂

[@Dirk-o9s]

Seems more like you are another victim of Russian propaganda.

[@zzbudzz]

Wars are never over by Christmas

[@joshuaalistair3193]

Hey Scott, at the end of each month could you show us an overlay of what the front lines looked like by each month's end for the last 12 months or so?

[@namur-iq6ih]

Two recent pieces published in Ukrainian media take a look at the situation in eastern Ukraine and describe the reasons for the crumbling of Ukraine's defense lines. The usual government friendly Ukrainska Pravda talked with units at the front line: The Pokrovsk front didn’t just crumble overnight. Since 15 February 2024, when they withdrew from Avdeevka, Ukraine’s defense forces have been retreating towards Pokrovsk - sometimes faster, sometimes slower - almost every week. The first difficulties arose when the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, which had been holding the line in the vicinity of Orlivka and Semenivka (not far from Avdeevka), was replaced by the 68th Separate Jaeger Brigade. The rotation of military units is one of the most vulnerable defense areas in general, and for the Ukrainian army in particular, and the Russians took advantage of that. Rotations are a complicate business. The unit that gets relieved is supposed to wait until the replacement unit has completely arrived. Only after explaining the positions and situation to the new troops are the old ones supposed to retreat. In reality that rarely happens as it is described in military manuals. The troops eager to get out do not take time to brief the incoming forces. Positions are emptied before the replacements have had time to settle in. Traffic snarls ensue as the number of vehicles in an area double before returning to a normal level. The enemy will of course use any such situation to make it more difficult for the rotating side. Botched rotations have caused several occasions where the lines were open and allowed Russian units to break in. They may be the main cause for the Russian break through from Avdeevka towards the key supply point in Pokrovsk. From those in the known: Vitalii, a crew member who operates a large attack drone, tells Ukrainska Pravda that he was deployed in the area in March, and that the Russian attacks started even before the 68th Brigade could take up its positions. "We met guys from the 68th who had only just taken up their positions and were forced to retreat immediately because of the FPV drone attacks. When a brigade leaves, they take all the electronic warfare equipment with them. This is typical on this front: they [the Russians] advance the most during rotations. The occupiers take advantage of those times." "The night we replaced the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade in Semenivka, the Russians attempted to carry out an assault operation. The meat-grinder attacks haven’t stopped since then," an Ukrainska Pravda source in the 68th Brigade confirms. Another big cause of losses is miscommunication between the various units that hold the lines. The results are breakthroughs and utter confusion about who holds positions and where: Another major turning point that marked the undoing of the Pokrovsk front was the Russians’ sudden breakthrough in Ocheretyne, a relatively large, urbanized town on the railway with industrial facilities, and therefore a particularly useful defense position. Russian liberation forces entered the town in mid-April. ... "Before the offensive, I received intelligence that the Russians were going to assault Ocheretyne, where we had no troops at the positions," the officer says. "I passed this information on to my commanders straight away, but the commander of the brigade stationed there [the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade - ed.] responded: ‘We have forces there, they’re all there.’ Next morning the Russians started to walk into [Ocheretyne], moving through what were officially minefields - but in fact there were no mines there. After we surrendered Novobakhmutivka, Ocheretyne and Soloviovo, the front started to collapse at the rate we’re seeing now." "When the Russians captured Ocheretyne, there was no stable contact line as such," Vitalii the drone crew member adds. "No one knew where the front was. Soldiers in the villages of Sokil, Yevhenivka and Voskhod were walking around with guns in their hands, asking each other for passwords to figure out if they were dealing with one of us or the enemy." In general, Russian troops are superior in experienced manpower and have more ammunition to fight: "The first problem on the Pokrovsk front is personnel numbers, the second is their level of training, and the third is the skills of the unit command. And then we run into the defense-related issues - tactics, measures, and so on." This, a soldier from the 47th Brigade tells Ukrainska Pravda, is the order of priority of the reasons for the Russians’ super-fast advance. Brigades are kept in the fight even as they are staffed to as low as 40% of their nominal strength. Replacements, if they arrive at all, are unqualified for fighting: "The backbone of the brigades was lost during the battles near Avdeevka, and the replenishments that arrived later left a lot to be desired," says a source from the 68th, explaining the shortage of motivated people. "The mobilization failed. Let's be honest - each subsequent replenishment was less motivated and trained. So, they could not reliably hold the defense. In Semenivka we had about 90% experienced people in the unit and 10% newcomers. Now we have about the same ratio, but the other way round. And the average age of the newcomers can even be 55+, not 45+." On the positive side there were a number of well-prepared fortifications had been built near Pokrovsk. Unfortunately, they had been built by unexperienced forces in the wrong places and were thus unusable: Bunkers and connected trench lines were indeed built on the Pokrovsk front - but there’s a catch. Many of these fortifications are unsuitable for serious defense. They’re frequently located in the middle of fields, which makes them visible to the enemy and difficult for the defense forces’ personnel, ammunition and supplies to reach. "When [Ukrainian MP Mariana] Bezuhla posts photos of empty trenches and asks why nobody was defending them, I know exactly why. Because it’s stupid to sit in a hole in the middle of a bare field. Sooner or later an FPV drone will fly right into your face," Vitalii tells Ukrainska Pravda angrily. ... "On the Pokrovsk front, trenches and dugouts had been made right in the middle of fields, making logistics impossible. They dug anti-tank ditches that led directly from enemy positions to our rear positions, and it’s impossible to monitor them. These fortifications help the enemy advance more than they help us defend. A second report on the war in the Pokrovsk direction, this one by Kyiv Independent, comes to similar conclusions: Since the first break through of Ukrainian defense lines in April near the village of Ocheretyne, Russian forces have advanced over 20 kilometers towards Pokrovsk, with the key logistics hub once considered to be deep in the rear, now gradually coming in range of Russian artillery and suicide drones. Despite Kyiv’s attempts to draw away Russian forces from Pokrovsk with the surprise incursion into Kursk Oblast, Moscow made sure not to take its foot off the pedal, further intensifying its attacks over August. Thin defense lines and a lack of supplies make losses inevitable: The infantrymen’s stories testify to the starkly attritional nature of the fight: although Russia’s relentless infantry assaults come at a high cost, with enough time and enough fire covering the defending positions, the defenders are inevitably overwhelmed. “We can be fighting them off for a while, but eventually our ammunition runs out,” said Dmytro, 32. “And while they are getting resupplied constantly, we can't do the same, they cover all the routes, and because of that, we have to give up our positions.” Units do not only lack men, but the lack of personnel has morale effects on those few who are still in the fight: “In the last two months here, to be honest, we have had serious losses. Killed, injured, and taken prisoner,” said Olena Tarishchuk, a 39-year-old lieutenant responsible for monitoring the morale and mental state of the fire support company’s personnel. “We need rest, we need rotation, we basically need support. We don't have enough manpower to carry out our orders.” Inevitably, extreme manpower strains, on top of the reluctance of Ukraine’s higher command to rotate exhausted units off the front line, take their toll on the infantry’s morale.

[@jeffreylubinski9797]

I love these titles!

[@jamesboswell9324]

Sorry, got here late. But did leave a comment.

[@alexglikin6099]

Great analysis...keep kalibrating, Scott

[@ProffTrefelling2001awdawd]

There's an old saying: Shovel.

[@formacionG13]

Hot pocket... Am hungry now

[@adolfdyversiti6517]

Highly processed fake food. Don't eat, you're getting sick. Sorry.

[@lino9222]

Hi from PEI Canada

[@atinwoodsman]

Who is going to pay back the 39 billion, US taxpayers?

[@zzbudzz]

Of course we bailout the rich and ANY poor country that will vote with the US at the UNITED Nations and all illegal immigrants....but the tax payer can fk off and die quietly

[@j.m.bonilla1053]

Sacramento California

[@Chris-z1k7x]

If a 71-year-old is motivated by offense at being disrespected, something is wrong.

[@COLINJELY]

QUESTION. At the end of WWII we had the Nuremberg Trails and there consequences. What are we going to see in the end of the wars in Ukraine and West Asia? Many War Crimes have been committed.

[@martyfromnebraska1045]

Lol You don't put America on show trial. Nuremberg only happened because the Allies committed so many atrocities and had no justification for the war that they had to invent post hoc rationalizations for their war of aggression through baseless Halloween stories. It worked! Now no one questions the "good war." Russia had a reason to invade Ukraine, and it isn't a global power. America controls the arms of propaganda worldwide, so Russian show trials won't have any force outside of Russia.

[@robzilla730]

Israel is NOT the 51st state. Its the capital of the United States...

[@zzbudzz]

Sad but true

[@cmorgan4515]

Mountain top, walky talkie, hurry in. We're having a blow outside sale.

[@mickmacgonigle5021]

Hi from ireland

[@jamesfyffe2610]

No Hot pockets! More Meatloaf Maah!

[@insomniacresurrected1000]

Adopt the word cauldron, this is the direct translation of Russian kotel.

[@stavroskarageorgis4804]

Zeh-reh-bEts, right?

[@Traveler_SF]

Zelensky paid by Russia for west tanks delivery

[@stavroskarageorgis4804]

Please don't repeat the claim that a war in the Middle East is to the PRC's advantage. Think it through.

[@Sora2529]

Channel reported for the 17th time

[@vtecmissle]

ok karen

[@fred4687]

Good stuff .... keep helping to promote it

[@Kerguelen.Mapping]

No offense but your pronunciations are way off

[@jakejackson6730]

No it doesn't.

[@Dirk-o9s]

"We are not aggressors! We didn't occupy Austria and Czechoslovakia, we are just protecting German-speaking folks abroad!" Sounds familiar?

[@timsmith1661]

NATO uses Nazis to overthrow the government of Ukraine, which led to a civil war. Russia is dealing with the end result of the actions of NATO. NATO sabotage peace deals, Russia was willing to sign. The Nazi lover tries to project his Nazi support onto Russia.

[@stavroskarageorgis4804]

It does.

[@SergeyTheBold]

Haters like you make Russia fight even harder to prove you wrong.

[@ВикторАпанасевич-ч6ы]

You have no idea who lives and how in the territory called Ukraine. Even now, after 3 years of war, 80% of queries on Google, on the territory of Ukraine, are made in Russian, 20% in Ukrainian. 80% of Ukrainian citizens are Russian. This is the Russian world, it was, is and will be.

[@Dirk-o9s]

@@SergeyTheBold Just sad how a nation fails to see who the real nasi s are.

there is a bigger pocket. at least 6000 russian tropp could be encircled if they kept on pushing ;)

[@평양시1]

Never happened in this entire war

@@평양시1 going to ;)

[@평양시1]

Yes, to ukrops for 100th time. Funny how even when they were combat capable they failed to encircle Russians at Gostomel and in Kherson.

[@Mindfulutopia]

Mental illness

[@fred4687]

6000 is a big force, how many Ukrainians do you think would be needed to encircle them, and how would they be able to prevent a breakout ?