Why Russia Miscalculated in Ukraine: A Self-Inflicted Disaster in Three Acts

Check out my book "What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War": amzn.to/3HY5aqW. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)
Why did Russia miscalculate so badly in its invasion of Ukraine? The answer is more than two decades in the making. Putin's Persistent and intentional decay of Russia's institutions made it impossible for Russia's intelligence community and military to provide quality information to him. Facing the uncertainty---and wagering that it would take a true disaster for it have a deep effect on him personally---Putin pulled the trigger.
0:00 Introduction
2:01 Putin's Rise to Power
4:54 The FSB Sets the Stage
6:11 How Would the West Respond?
10:20 How Resolved Was Ukraine?
13:59 The Military's Optimism
19:35 Pravda (The Truth)
25:27 Putin Pulls the Trigger
26:32 Russian Success Was Plausible
26:55 Bad Luck
29:05 Lack of Blowback
30:43 The COVID Pandemic
31:24 Putin's Illness
35:19 Easter Eggs
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From President.gov.ua:
www.president.gov.ua/en/photo...
From Government of Ukraine:
tinyurl.com/bdhajpmt
tinyurl.com/2sefhpf9
From Kremlin.ru:
20.kremlin.ru/en/2000
putin.kremlin.ru/bio/page-3
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/U...
kremlin.ru/news/20604
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/security-cou...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/55/...
kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/55/...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/tr...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/tr...
kremlin.ru/events/president/tr...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
kremlin.ru/events/president/ne...
From Duma.gov.ru:
duma.gov.ru/multimedia/photo/7...
From government.ru:
services.government.ru/press/p...
Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From RIA Novosti:
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/...
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/...
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/...
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/...
Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/...
From US Secretary of Defense:
www.flickr.com/photos/secdef/...
From Minister-President Rutte:
www.flickr.com/photos/5113519...
From European People's Party:
www.flickr.com/photos/4519883...
Media licensed under GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Co...
From Dmitriy Pichugin:
www.airliners.net/photo/Russia...

[@Gametheory101]

Small correction at 19:22: The fall of the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan occurred in 2021, not 2022. And 26:16 is “Siberia”, not “Serbia”. Though I do wonder if a hypothetical ice fisher in Serbia is also aware of Russian corruption.

[@tnndll4294]

Russian Neo-cons: Never met a conflict they didn't like. Never met a dictator they didn't like. fact.

[@tnndll4294]

I hope Russia falls off a cliff.

[@y.israel922]

😇 = 🇺🇸 Hope that's make you happy Why don't you just shut up and keep quiet 🐕

[@lizanderson1669]

Russian corruption LMAO you mean USA/Ukraine corruption

[@GronTheMighty]

I'm fairly sure that in fact 'most' ice fishers in Serbia are aware of Russian corruption, and likely ice fishers across the globe in general as well. I think we have to reach pretty far away from human civilization to find anyone who isn't aware. Or accept the pretence of lacking awareness as an actual lack of awareness. That aside, it's always good to see a youtuber bothering to make even minor corrections, kudos to you on that :)

[@Huvpalto]

I’m Ukrainian and my grandpa told me a story of a factory in Mykolaiv he worked at while studying when it all was the Soviet Union. A dude died horrifically after being sucked in some machine. Basically turned into pate spread all over the place. And people just kinda literally scrubbed it off the floor walls and machinery and threw it all in a bin, because they had to decorate that hall due to factory directors 30 year anniversary or something and didn’t want to spoil the moment and get punished. So they had their party and then under pressure from unions or something like that were like “oh yeah also a dude died a week ago, here’s the paperwork, it’s all fine, don’t worry about it”. This system of small bosses terrified of bringing bad news to higher ups to not get punished is a core of soviet and now russian bureaucracy. Now imagine that on a government level, in military sector. Tons of officers reporting downplayed casualties and exaggerated wins to colonels, they report those even worse to generals, etc etc until some dude brings Putin a document in red envelope saying that Russia has no losses in the war, they defeated 50 gazillion nazis, 50 himars, etc oh and btw sanctions don’t work, russia economy stronk, it’s the decadent west that suffer themselves and freeze without our gas etc. It’s a system where propaganda is told from top to bottom, but then it festers and goes back up exaggerated… and the funny thing, higher ups believe it themselves because those kissasses are their only source of information. Fascinating really. The typical story of CEO bringing company down by surrounding himself with “yesmen” but on a national scale with global international consequences.

[@brooklynlass2196]

You are so on point.

[@rightside1911]

the problem is it is ingrained in russia they have had to lie cheat and steal to survive for so long they no longer see anything wrong with it it goes far back into tsarist times with russian secret police.

[@killmozzies]

Thanks Alex, well said, and easy to read and understand.

[@JMM33RanMA]

Long live free, democratic, independent and sovereign Ukraine. Слава Україні, мужнім захисникам України славна перемога! Путіну і Росії ганьба, вічне прокляття і холодна могила!

[@ClickClack_Bam]

You've also described Ukraine. Russia & Ukraine are some of the most CORRUPT countries in the whole world. Ukraine is guilty of almost the EXACT same bullshit Russia is. The exception in recent times is that there's a serious American propaganda machine that ONLY paints Russia as having losses & Ukraine as ONLY winning. Meanwhile the DEATH count is almost the same on BOTH sides. Ukraine soldiers have raped & murdered Ukrainian women & it's went largely unreported. Ukraine is ABSOLUTELY mobilizing it's citizens to fight while the world thinks it's 100% volunteers. ZELENSKY wanted to join NATO after the US handed him $20 BILLION American taxpayer dollars. He wasn't trying to use any money he stole through corruption. He knows you can't join NATO when in conflict but he tried anyways knowing full well he was ONLY going for the brownie points he'd get when he tried & got denied anyways. Zelensky was warned by American intelligence that Russia was going to invade & he took the whole thing at first as nonsense. There are jokes Zelensky told about Russia "not having the balls to invade Ukraine". Yet most people don't know ANY of this stuff. What a testament to the power of propaganda.

[@stormwolf3255]

With respect to the ice-cream seller woman, Putin has a rent-a-crowd set of 'trusted employees' ready to dress in the outfit of the day. The same people have been seen at other events dressed as fishermen, soldiers and anywhere Putin is seen interacting with 'the Russian people'. The BBC had an article on their news site a few weeks back.

[@taggart64]

🤣🤣are you for real, Joe biden has used the corruption within Ukraine to try and push the WEF global governance. Don't worry Vlad and Russia will end the 3 sea project

[@Blackadder75]

it doesn't get more soviet than that, the whole system has always been a fraud on every level. The western system is far from perfect but it is a 1000 times better

[@menghuakin8574]

Even pop has security guard, what U expect. Be real pro!

[@purplehz97]

Theatre. Just like China & North Korea. Gotta love those commies.

[@RCXDerp]

@@menghuakin8574 that whale must do some mean krav maga or something

[@jonmopjovi2734]

The ultimate gut check for any leader is when the country looks likely to fall you stay to go down fighting. I still think more than anything else Zelenskys refusal to leave Kiev was a critical event in this war.

[@FlukeTog]

100% Legend

[@sepnyte9422]

Had he taken off, Ukraine would probably not have been standing for long. Him staying gave people faith in their own country.

[@dishankb9213]

This wasn't Afganistan that people had to run away. Only internal turmoil presidents tend to run.

[@WoahJustTakeItEasyMan]

Compare that to putin who didn't even stay in Moscow when he heard wagner was coming 😂

[@sepnyte9422]

@@WoahJustTakeItEasyMan Putin and his cronies ran faster than Usain Bolt. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@matthewhuszarik4173]

Ukraine and Afghanistan couldn’t be more different. One failed battle didn’t stop Russia in Ukraine. The Ukrainians were willing to fight to the end to protect their families and country. Despite everyone telling them they didn’t have a chance.

[@robertstennett7566]

Everyone was right the Ukrainians did not have a chance they never did. They have lost the war, they have lost 500,000 young men a whole generation. The tragic thing is Ukraine brought this war on themselves by killing 14,000 of their own citizens that lived in Eastern Ukraine, the invasion was made to stop the killing of the citizens of Eastern Ukraine. Zelensky could of stopped the war, 2 years ago in Istanbul he signed a peace agreement with the Russians that would have stopped the war. The USA and UK talked him out of implementing the agreement. So all this misery they are suffering is self inflicted by their leader Zelensky. The 14,000 count of the people killed in Eastern Ukraine by the Ukrainian Government statistics is on the United Nations website. In case you did not know about all this is because the US government lies to it's citizens and the major news networks knowingly broadcast the government lies.

[@azizithelethargic9229]

I implore you, do not compare Afghanistan, to an extent Afghans, with* Ukraine. It sounds very wrong.

[@matthewhuszarik4173]

@@azizithelethargic9229 What does “couldn’t be more different” mean?

[@azizithelethargic9229]

@@matthewhuszarik4173 My mistake, but, it's a useful reminder to those who would later reply to you here. Again, my bad.

[@matthewhuszarik4173]

@@azizithelethargic9229 No problem I just was wondering if there was some reason I shouldn’t contrast how the Ukrainians responded to the Russian invasion and Afghanistan responded to the Taliban wanting to take back over?

[@dchiznit209]

I was watching the HBO series Chernobyl, during the first episode, everyone was downplaying how bad the explosion was even while witnessing the effects of extreme radiation poisoning in front of them, they still downplayed everything in order for the party to look good. I think that thought process never went away.

[@UGNAvalon]

@Don Cuyson The problem with using that show as a comparison is that the show writers intentionally magnified the strength & speed of the radiation while maintaining (or even amplifying) the incompetence of the leaders, all for dramatic effect. Off the top of my head: the smoke was white instead of black, the spotlight was fainter, the forest died after months instead of days, the first firefighters got itchy hands days after handling graphite instead of 3rd-degree burns within minutes, the “he’s just delusional” supervisor actually spent years defending the reputation of his scapegoated subordinates, etc. The tvtropes page has more details. EDIT for those who aren't understanding: It's easier for leadership to downplay the silent dangers of radioactive contamination when the visible signs are subtle (first responders getting mildly itchy hands after a few days, trees taking months to die, etc); by speeding up the timetable of the radiation damage so rapidly (third degree burns within minutes, entire forests dying overnight, violent vomiting mere minutes after the explosion, etc) it makes the otherwise-plausible denial of the incident's danger into cartoonishly dumb willing-blindness. - If the actual Chernobyl incident happened as it did in the series, and the leadership _Still_ acted like it was nothing, then it'd be more plausible to say "denying the obvious is a decades-long tradition in Russian politics". But it didn't, so we can't say that the dramatized depiction of Chernobyl is "proof" that Russian leaders have a history of denying the obvious.

[@dchiznit209]

@@UGNAvalon understandable, but I think the sentiment holds though, downplay any potential problems and be yes men even if the potential problems are smacking them in the face

[@hypercrack7440]

Every Major Country does, Yes no surprises here, ask the Chinese 😂😂

[@meeeka]

@Don Cuyson It is a thought process from before Peter the Great's shakeup of the boyars, forcing them to shave their beards --as a lesser order all the way to forcing the clans to move to Pitr, if they wanted to keep their properties, riches and positions. Boyars/Nobles/Party Bosses--that entire layer of the cake were very canny about telling the Tsar/tsarina/ Party Gensec unpleasant news. Ivan the Terrible killed his own son for disagreeing with him and from that down to the Bolshies, no one was ever willing to challenging or contradicting whatever the guy on the throne declared his chosen reality.

[@alexanderwu]

Oh I thought you meant the documentary was downplaying The explosion and was very confused for a minute

[@zollen123]

It is astonishing Putin weren't aware of his country problems and shortcomings before the war. It is as if you were on the job for more than *twenty years* and you knew nothing of your company's problems. This would only be possible if you never went to work to begin with.

[@Desmaad]

A culture of lying will do that to you.

[@sirdavidoftor3413]

@Stephen Kong: if you watched Perun’s video on Russian lying and corruption, you wouldn’t be surprised. It explains a lot. His channel is on KZbin, and the 1 hour PowerPoint is very well done. He is an Aussie, who works in the logistics field of the military industrial complex. Each week there is a new topic about the war, or armies in particular. As a layman in this field, his research and expertise, is explained in terms that even I can understand. Stay safe, stay sane, stay strong Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@stevengordon3271]

Nobody tells the emperor he is naked.

[@petriew2018]

i don't think he was unaware, since whatever you want to say about Putin's morality, i don't think anyone would ever think him unintelligent I think he just disregarded it because he thought sheer overwhelming force would make up for the obvious bullshit in the reports. And let's be honest, most people even in the west kind of assumed the same thing on day 1

[@user-uh2it3vz4x]

裸の王様はえてしてこのようなものだ。はい王様、３日で陥落させます。そうかよしよし！

[@SuperEugene1956]

Living in Ukraine I am aware of the information you have presented in this video. An excellent summary of events and has brought back vivid memories of waking up on February 24 and finding out that we had been invaded.. I have remained in Ukraine despite advice from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs. It is a matter of conscience to remain here and help a count.ry that gave me permanent residence.

[@eric.loves.to.fish1]

​@@apocalypse-now A) 14,000 died in Donbass? Plse supply the source of info. B) Even if above is true, none of Russia's business to go and grab Ukrainian land. It's not Russia's land in case you don't understand the concept of 'sovereignty' . Yep, Ukraine is a sovereign country as according to the UN Charter. No wonder practically the whole world condemned Russia's invasion and its land-grabbing. And yep, its leader putin is a thug and a robber. Not to mention a killer.

[@lillibitjohnson7293]

Thank you for helping as much as you can

[@digital827111]

I am sure the women and children of the Donbass felt the same way when your nazis poured artillery barrages upon them for the eight years prior. Anyone who watched Oliver Stone's documentary "Ukraine on Fire" knows the truth and are glad retribution is being meted out to these nazis.

[@danielgeci4513]

So you're a Nazi supporter then. Good to know

[@marioformosa4259]

Yes many foreigners have been urging the Ukrainians to fight and die.

[@jaiclary8423]

It warms my bitter anti-authoritarian heart to hear all the things that would have to go wrong for Russia's invasion to be a disaster for Russia.

[@The_whales]

It’s not the first time, they had issuing with japan(1914), Poland(end of ww1), Finland(winter war), and Afghanistan(Soviet-afghan war)

[@vladimirpootis3200]

​@@The_whalesJapan in 1904 actually.

[@StevenCaldwell-ev8br]

MAn shall reap What he sows! Bible is ALMIGHTY GODS TRUTH. ASK IN PRAYER FOR MORE TO FOLLOW JESUS TEACHINGS! STOP HATE OR BE LATE! IM REMEMBER MY Savior KING GOD OF ALL. CHRISTIAN LOOK UP. UR REDEMPTION DRAWS NEAR!! LOVE GOD HATE SIN.

[@joshm3484]

I know why he did, because I did the same thing, though on a much smaller scale. Many people, maybe even most, believe they'd be happy if every time they tried something, it went even better than expected. And it is nice. But when you're always successful and always achieve whatever you want, you start to believe that you can do anything you want, and somehow, magically, despite all evidence and common sense to the contrary, it will still turn out well, because everything always has. Until it doesn't. And let us be frank. If Zelensky had fled or surrendered, Ukraine would almost certainly have fallen in days, and the ever increasing sanctions and weapons aid packages would never have had time to take effect. Zelensky is widely hailed as a hero, but I don't think it is possible to overstate his importance in keeping Ukraine in the fight, and building a sense of unity and purpose in Ukraine that will assure that if anything did happen to him now, Ukraine would continue to fight effectively. This is to say nothing of his political maneuvering, coalition building, and his ability to keep Ukraine in the Western mind. “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,” whether an actual quote or not, _does_ perfectly summarize Zelensky, and Ukraine in general.

[@LRRPFco52]

Putin's plan relied on Joe Biden removing Zelensky from Kiev. This would have allowed the Russian "Special Military Operation" to be quickly executed, without much response from the West, just like in Georgia 2008. When Zelensky refused to comply with Biden's evacuation, it left a leader in Kiev who could rally Ukraine to fight, while serving as a legitimate coordinator to receive foreign military articles. Had Zelenensky fled, Ukraine would have collapsed into resistance fighting of an occupier, vs an organized military force under national leadership. This changed everything, since Russia was stopped from taking Kiev and Odessa, and fought back with great effect.

[@brianmcnevin1419]

Excellent read! Zelenskyy is the 21st Century Winston Churchill. When Churchill died I thought they broke the mould. I feel so fortunate to live in the same time as Zelenskyy.

[@weik-2936]

Putin started this war to write another chapter in history about how great he was... And in the process he made his opposite a legend

[@no59do56]

You forget to factor in when American Taxpayers get tired of being fleeced by one of THE MOST CORRUPT. WELL GOD BLESS.

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

I think his problem is not using the internet. If Putin used the internet he could get first hand informtion from anywhere and gauge the pulse of the international language groups.

[@adamesd3699]

We’ve all had the experience in life where we make good decisions, take calculated risks that work out, begin to believe in ourselves, take bigger calculated risks…that blow up in our face. Usually, however, these don’t involve tens of thousands of people dead.

[@LuisManuelLealDias]

hundreds of thousands and counting

[@bonchevpetar]

Usually...

[@jakobole]

A bit like Hitler that became over-confident after the 'ansluss' of Austria and annexation of Sudetenland. He thought he could do nothing wrong, even to be a kind of 'chosen one'.....

[@FLOWER-POWER]

I miscalculated the toxicity and half-life of a burrito fart about the same time Putin was being sworn in for his fourth term. It's still out there causing collateral damage to this day. Lest we forget.

[@tereterevanakere2132]

they took Arnold's advice and had no plan B

[@tonyluckens50]

The UK was the first country to supply Ukraine with anti tank weapons BEFORE the invasion. This was a major factor in the Ukrainians managing to stop the Russian tank regiments moving down the main highway to Kiev. It is a fact that Ukraine would now be in Russian hands whilst America and, particularly Europe, we’re still mulling it over. That said, all have now stepped up to the plate, especially America, whose response has, and continues to be, magnificent.

[@ianstewart6021]

Great report mate. Keep going. 👋👋👋

[@codin4]

As a polish I have to note that all post soviet states wanted to join NATO and were doing everything to do so. Every country of the East block hates Russia and communism and it wasn't NATO pushing. The nations wanted safety from russian empire who is always thirsty for blood. We all here just remember what red has done to our ppl. Our heroes were put into mass graves at Katyń and we will never forget and never forgive, just like Ukraine now!

[@Architect_777]

🤡

[@werin117plays3]

As a Czech, i must agree

[@s5r581]

As a Cambodia, I must agree During Khmer rouge 2 million people died because they refuse to be a slave. Pol pot.

[@s5r581]

@@Architect_777 clown

[@Pidalin]

Mainly, people from former communist countries see that Russia haven't changed and under Putin, they act like tsarist empire again and that's scary for us. Putin was always just a KGB moron for me, you can see it on his face that he is liar and criminal, probably even murderer as a former KGB agent. How the hell could western leaders do some deals with such person? I just don't get it, I was right about him since I started watching politics, I always hated him and he looked always scary to me. You can see how he totaly don't care about lives, he lost like 200 000 soldiers and fall back would mean he lost so he is ok with sending another 200 000 people to death and he doesn't care that it's totaly pointless, what should be result of this stupid war, so he conquer Ukraine and what then? He will be still seen as dictator and west will do even stronger sanctions against him. Isn't better just peacefully trade with Ukraine and have good relation ships and earn money? What Putin is doing doesn't make any sense. Russia could be part of NATO and EU if they wanted, it's their fault that they are seen as enemies now, they chose that. The fact that some western people think that NATO pushed us to beying part of it is just bizar, we obviously entered NATO because we ARE the west and we want to be safe from Russia and not become east again. Our culture and values are western and we really don't want to fall back to Russian sphere of influencem even when you can see many people who want it, you can be sure that vast majority of people don't.

[@MisterW0lfe]

The woman has also been a Fisherman, a mother of a deployed soldier in the meeting with mothers, a churchgoer at a mass, and in several other photos where Putin makes public appearances in recent years

[@grahamstrouse1165]

Talented lady! 😂

[@scp-2348]

@@grahamstrouse1165Still not as talented as Johnny Sins.

[@setht593]

Yeah, but the real question is do Russians find it odd that guards pretend to be "the public" for PR? Or is that expected?

[@alaeriia01]

Either a bodyguard or a mistress.

[@defective6811]

@@alaeriia01 a mistryguard

[@conradpogorzelski2630]

Thank you for the information

[@Mozart22072012]

I must say, this documentary was VERY informative and well maid. Thank you❤

[@lavantz345]

This is why having a leader that nobody can say no to, or be held accountable for anything, is dangerous for any country.

[@g3nng3nn19]

That’s why he is a leader , and you an idiot who wants an opinion !

[@markiobooker218]

How old are you to dare presume to lecture us?

[@marianene8073]

Yup ...

[@smark667]

I think the politician class should be retired. Time to let AI run things. Humans are corruptable. Good luck

[@joshgordon2484]

YOU MEAN, LIKE BIDEN?

[@MedicalMyke]

This video has more talented analysis and palatable content in 36 minutes than you might see in 36 days on tv.

[@ericluffy7970]

Because this is humanity at its finest. Don't just be good at what you do, but love what you do. If there isn't a good mix of money, heart and dedication in every day we punch in then we are doing it wrong.

[@Jubel06]

36 months for some networks. 36 years for others...

[@cosmosofinfinity]

Somehow all of cable news can't afford a single Spaniel

[@EffortlessEthan]

@@Jubel06 I was gonna say, I think he means 36 years.

[@ericluffy7970]

@cosmosofinfinity well then it would be news and not just Op-Ed bobble head madness that it has become. Not paid as good I assume, but hopefully having character, integrity and a sould make up for having 1 less 0 in the bank account total amount

[@scotthazelton519]

Thanks for sharing

[@susiebaka3388]

thats funny i could never make out the "man on the moon" smiley face until you drew over it with yellow pen at 32:33

[@khananiel-joshuashimunov4561]

That woman in the photo shoot appears any time Putin needs a stand in. She's also the mother of many dead soldiers, and a well respected community leader of many communities. Most of the people in that photo fill the same role.

[@razagan1343]

any source on that? because I very badly want it to be true.

[@NuclearFridge1]

Because the "mighty leader" is afraid that someone is going to get close to him with a weapon. A small man scared of his own people.

[@daniel_dumile]

Seriously though do you have a source? I’ve read her connection to a son lost in Ukraine is tenuous at best, but this is saying she and others are a known actor in multiple similar state events? Is FSB this sloppy or are you just being hyperbolic?

[@Fortify2030]

@@daniel_dumile Its well known in russian-speaking media, many noticed this woman in many meeting with Putin, she as a factory worker, a fish worker, mother of soldier, random person in a church-mesa during Putin's church visit.

[@cecasander]

FSB director: "Agent Natasya, the president needs you by his side, to serve him." Agent Natasya: "Oh, of course I will serve! Will he need a body guard? Or my expertise on counter-terror measures?" FSB director: "No, he needs you to serve him ice cream."

[@lucboulanger8128]

A really savvy analysis, enlightening. For those who can read French, a book was recently published by an exiled (Paris) ex-KGB spy, Sergeï Jirnov, who knew Putin as they both worked there at the same time. Titled "L'engrenage", Jirnov offers his appreciation of Putin, describing him as a manipulative thug, not particularly intelligent, but having the knack to always be at the right place at the right time. Putin's career at the KGB was rather lackluster and he was demoted a couple of times for bad judgment. Boris Yeltsin was the one who positioned Putin to become the new Russia Tsar when he appointed him acting president. Putin was never part of a structured political party or had any political doctrine to offer.

[@pervertt]

Just prior to the invasion, there was a lot of speculation on whether the massing of Russian forces near Ukraine's border was part of a giant Putin bluff. He's a smart guy, the thinking went, surely he wouldn't be that stupid to commit to an actual invasion. It soon turned out he was that stupid.

[@user-hi6tb6fv6g]

Great recap!!!

[@user-uc1jh2bo9x]

You are brainwashed. Congrats

[@lizanderson1669]

And what did the exiled KGB have to say about himself LMAO everyone out to make a buck for himself lol

[@lucboulanger8128]

@@lizanderson1669 Liz, Actually, Jirnov defected in 2001 and achieved post graduate studies at the French highly reputed ENA "Ecole Nationale d'administration". He earns his living as a journalist and consultant. He authored other books on the subject prior to his latest work.

[@allanhugo9213]

Good reporting.

[@davidgillespie3406]

I loved the video. Very informative. Definately keep them coming. Would love to see a few on the war in progress, with imbeded journalist or reporters (world wide reoorteds, like they did with the US during Desert Storm, a couple years back, haha. I was actuve duty AF, although I wanted to be, I wasnt in theater). These guys did a fantastic job of reporting while in active combat. Although the news itself wasnt seen live, it still gave a great way of putting you there. Im sure it wont hurt your ratings on YT.

[@TheMightymolar]

Excellent breakdown. Thank you. Two notable additions: 1) Putin had apartment buildings bombed in Moscow and blamed it on Chechen rebels. Going to war against Chechnya was one way he built his national support. It's not a conspiracy theory - the FSB was caught doing it and it was reported in Russia at the time. 2) In 2008 Russia invaded Georgia and the west did nothing.

[@hoosthere]

Was he president in 2008

[@fe7kh]

911. Pffft.

[@TheMightymolar]

@@fe7kh great reply. I'm not sure if it's a rebuttal, but you did type things.

[@theo3030]

the invasion in georgia was limited and brief though. He stopped short of reaching the capital of georgia. Most people-including world leaders like Erdogan- thought that the invasion of ukraine was going to follow a similar pattern but were terribly wrong.

[@fe7kh]

@@theo3030 weird. Did NATO feed Georgia w mercenaries and weapons? The answer is no. You know it. I know it. Why even compare?

[@PedroFerreira-ze5yp]

A one year "3 day Special Superkalifragilistic Military Operation"

[@vaestkusten6041]

Lol.. when you believe your own lies and propaganda. Then reality kicks in and the 3 day special op turns into a nightmare.

[@psychologianiestacjonarna6558]

"Russia's democratic backsliding" ? Russia has never ever been democratic. That's the problem, the Russians don't even understand what the word "democracy" means. Russia has always been a feudal state, currently run by Putin's mafia

[@wellesmorgado4797]

the 1936 spanish civil war started as a military "proclamacion" (a coup, in general a fast thing that would be over in days, leading to the destitution of the government), but the reality had significantly changed since the end of the XIX century. In the end, Spain had to endure 3 years of a terrifying civil war, full of atrocities by both sides. Actually both sides miscalculated then.

[@murraychadwick9362]

When people actually believe their imagination is real life.

[@ThomasSmith-rj4zt]

"Three days" was stated by US General Miley. How it became "Russians plan" I'll never know. As it stands, Russia seems completely intent just wiping Ukraine out. They appear to be planning to either take a bunch of land, or effectively destroy Ukraine. As funny as Russian troops dying is, what's not funny is the Ukrainian citizens spending night after night without power, power which the old and weak need to survive.

[@republicafederalcentroamer5368]

What a great video!

[@youngpower24]

Has anybody been reading these new files released on Putins time in the FSB? Turns out he was just a coffee boy for the professional staff and not some hardened FSB lifer with elite skills.

[@loganlabbe9767]

This channel makes me feel like when you find out how a magicians trick is performed, except for massive geopolitical events.

[@longbeach13]

And no matter how many times you block this channels they still pop up in your feed😂 comment against and you get banned 😂 internet wars are more dangerous i see

[@aroudedinsulance4307]

@@longbeach13 i mean you're doing it now and your comments lasted 5 hours, nice bait though

[@kendexter]

@@longbeach13 U know you can clean cache, delete cookies and set youtube settings on or off to show video's based on your previous search and watched , your problem solved. learn how to internet..lol.. and after that you can go to some channel like RT ,Fox or other Pravda suited for you and or dictators , if you could comment here you are yet not banned nor blocked

[@toxikwastedump]

this is western imperialist propaganda

[@tjk3430]

@@aroudedinsulance4307 15 hours and counting.

[@UncleTonyshotsauce]

I like when intelligent people do their research for others and history 🇺🇸👍

[@user-oc1zq1ej5c]

His intelligence is full of excrement.

[@anamokena-nicol4247]

Intelligence is only measurable within the culture and peoples the test was formed for... An earth worm means nothing to someone in the USA who lives in an apartment in a concrete arena with plastic, robots and more concrete for company...

[@nonye0]

we are all intelligent.

[@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714]

@@nonye0 Ones who watch this chanel for fun likely so.

[@randomname5338]

@@nonye0 where have you been for the past 3 years we are all very very very dumb , borderline psychotic

[@user-md2xp1bt5s]

very good info thank you

[@user-nl1ow8xu3l]

I am impressed by how accurate this video is. Seems to be 100% wrong. Not easy to do.

[@howardleach5340]

William Spaniel. What a journey through pure intelligence and thought!

[@MakeAllThingsBeautiful]

yes i agree totally. I would recommend checking out the Jehovah's Witnesses understanding of the 'King of the North', Totalitarian, militaristic and diametrically opposed to the 'King of the South', Liberalism. There is a whole chapter in the bible Daniel ch 11 about this opposed 'kings'. Where they started out and into the 'last days' ... see Daniel ch 12 v 1 to 4. The best book on this topic is probably 'Pay Attention to Daniel's Prophecy' published in 1999. Though even more fascinating is a talk, on youtube from Sept 1942 'Peace Can it Last?' ... it's a bit crackly but profound ... even mentions the United Nations as becoming a key player. Politics, particularly like Putin's Russia its allies are sinister but combine this with western politics which is just that .. politics .. unreliable, untrustworthy, sometimes strong, but like the last year very slow to act ... this latter bit is maybe something Putin got right, the slow support for Ukraine, particularly France/Germany who could of maybe been more effective.

[@chrischrisdaman]

@@MakeAllThingsBeautiful it’s a weird, thick skulled, wait a minute ITS A JEHOVAH’S WITNESS what are you doing down here, in the realm of the military enthusiasts. Just pick a real denomination mate. I can’t concentrate on what you’re saying if you keep- pick one PICK ONE. You’re a funny little thing.

[@MakeAllThingsBeautiful]

@@chrischrisdaman the bible is really about the planet earth and particularly what the future holds. I think the JW's make sense of Daniel chapter 11, specifically at this moment the 'king of the north' and obviously the 'king of the south' as each is required to help identify the other. For the last 120 years the 'north' has been militaristic and to initiate, engage and keep people onside it defaults or already is totalitarian. The 'king of the south' is also at this moment in time the seventh world power, Anglo American alliance and there allies. The ultimate winner will be the United Nations as the political solution to the earth's woes. Could go into all the scriptures if you wish. As it happens the bible is as good a source of reliable military history as any.

[@SERGIO-cr6uy]

If Steven Seagal is there, things can only go bad.

[@NSUSashiel]

So that WAS him, I just paused the video and went "wut"

[@winstonsmith313]

@@NSUSashiel If Steven Segal is doing anything besides making movies where he is 😂😂”a formidable warrior”😂😂 things are actually going good - for us.

[@dinojohn1]

Segal and Trump. Losers love Losers.....

[@applesyrupgaming]

@@winstonsmith313 segal is a rapist and a fat liar 😬

[@Xpwnxage]

Segal is the one that convinced Putin to go through with the Ukrainian invasion.

[@jampasurprenant1794]

Absolutely amazing video very interesting and Educational about the war all over the world.

[@brutusvonmanhammer]

24:55 I'm slightly confused by this part. How do you see "tank after tank after tank" sitting around rusting, with no mechanics, and soldiers selling off military equipment to buy alcohol, and then conclude from that information that they were preparing for an invasion?

[@Dan-nx9zn]

Because the tanks had been pulled from storages all over russia to the border and

[@yoshimeier3060]

I think age and illness increase the willingness to take risks substantially. If you have a dude that convinced himself to be the chose one and that has been unopposed for years and that guy is suddenly or creepinly confronted with his mortality... he might just decided its time to cement his legacy now rather than later.

[@oscareriksen2240]

What surprises me is that nobody speculates about drugs. The trembling could easily be related to drug abuse. Pills or whatever.

[@thiloreichelt4199]

That is the far more important point about his speculative illness. Putin does see himself as a big player, who can shape the world. Knowing his time remaining is limited would be likely to push him into action. Drug abuse is unlikely. If anything, he might get pills from his personal MD, but I doubt even that. Putin noted Yeltsin being regularly drunk, and hated him for that. And he is well aware of the amount of alcohol abuse common in Russia.

[@Elkarlo77]

@@thiloreichelt4199 Some Drugs to fight Parkinson or Cancer will lend to overconfidence. So he might be on a "normal" level for his illness or to keep it under control but it will lead to misjudgements and overconfidence. About the Cancer Theorie: Putin's Poo is for a while a state secret. Before he used normal toilets since a while his excrements when he is visiting other Countries is flown back to Russia. Now he got his own portable Toilett with a special Bodyguard for it, and everything goes back. Not unusual for Paranoid Dictators, Kim Jong-Un does the same.

[@peterkobor5470]

I agree . Considering all of these facts there is a very likely chance he will use nuclear weapons if he is pushed into a corner . I am his age and after a good life I would have absolutely no problem pushing the red button .

[@rv637]

Exactly. Crazy Pootin has nothing to lose. He is old (and probably with some illness) and sitting at the comfort of his mansion. I really believe he doesn’t care about the average Russian.

[@florobanag706]

Im from the Philippines and i like it very much how clear you presented every topic you discussed . More power to you Mr Spaniel ... Always waiting for your upload ...

[@iwantyourcookiesnow]

I hoped Pacquiao was going to be PI president.

[@scabthecat]

Obama will be remembered as a geopolitical titan for the ages. But more importantly, he's black. The first black president. Not the second, the first. Not an old white man. A black man. That's important. That he's black. Whatever happened to MLK and the content of character?

[@augustuslunasol10thapostle]

@@iwantyourcookiesnow so you wanted a idiot as my countries president

[@thomasdaniel3307]

Iistened to all of this ! Hooray !

[@escapefelicity2913]

very well done

[@bixbysnyder-00]

"338 days into my 3 day war, I am still master strategist" -Vladimir Putin

[@rykson161]

Why does America and nato back African nations as they back Ukraine?

[@Lewd-Tenant_Isan]

@@rykson161 because African nations aren't in Europe duh

[@AWMJoeyjoejoe]

@@rykson161 the clue is in the name. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Not sure how long it's been since you looked at a map but Africa isn't anywhere near the North Atlantic.

[@sergeyshunin548]

Don't forget, the Russian army was already in Gostomel, near Kiev, 2-3 hours after the start of the conflict. The narrative about 3 days is the narrative of US propaganda. No one has declared about 3 days.

[@bixbysnyder-00]

@@sergeyshunin548 That's right, you proved my point. The Russians were near Kiev in 2 to 3 hours, and they got obliterated. Putin tried to decapitate the Ukrainian government but failed miserably.

[@JR-bj3uf]

I had a friend who, while at the airport, decided to have his shoes shined. The man shining shoes looked at him as he approached and said "Parkinson's right?" "No" my friend said "not that I know of." When he got back he went to the doctor and the tests confirmed that he had Parkinson's disease. It is sometimes possible to diagnose for visual clues. The shoe shine guy told my friend that his brother had Parkinson's and he knew what to look for.

[@tomlxyz]

Question is how many wrong things that man said that didn't get much attention because of it

[@johnbrown-rm8kc]

yes correct my mates father had Parkinsons and after that i always picked up on people with Tremors etc

[@zelmo73]

@@johnbrown-rm8kc alcoholics just coming off a binge have tremors too. I’d trust a doctor over a shoeshine boy any day.

[@poohoff]

Nice bullshit story, but try harder next time

[@JR-bj3uf]

For clarification: It was the way he walked. The shoe shine guy turned on his stool and watched my friend walk toward him. It was not tremors but the shuffling gate with which he was walking that triggered the response.

[@naakatube]

This is so true!

[@josephraun9068]

This is important news!

[@danlei88]

In Finland there's a belief that the weird Putin walk is a result of permanent damage to his collar bone when he played football against a team of bishops in the finnish city of Turku. Apparently one of the holy men tackled him and damaged his collar bone/shoulder. That could explain the asymmetric walk at least for the arms but not the limp. Also need to note that this happened 30 years ago and I don't have the expertise to know if it's possible for it to still cause a chronic issue after decades.

[@GeneralWinter9]

Nobody cares about what you believe in finland

[@danlei88]

@@GeneralWinter9 I know it sucks that in Russia you're not able to freely talk about your political leader in any bad light but you don't have to take your jealousy out on me =)

[@Brian-om2hh]

It's a well known fact that excessive bashing of your bishop can have lasting health repercussions.....

[@tomriley5790]

Certainly posilbe for things 30 years ago to cause chonic (lifelong problems) but impossible to know without more information if the story is the real cause.

[@paddington1670]

One of the skinniest graduating kids in my year got tackled by a large boy and folded his collarbones together. His shoulders basically touched in front of his chest. He couldnt go to school for the rest of the year, bed ridden. I dont know what happened to him, because we all moved on, i did hear he joined the Canadian Forces but that's hearsay at a random birthday party decades later that i heard that.

[@OffGridUrbanist]

Seeing Putin standing uncomfortably in a cake bakery made my day…. There is too much happiness and sweetness in this place…

[@itheuserfirst3186]

"Why are these people smiling? We are Russians. NATO is already over our border!"

[@arupmallick3923]

Ukraine relied on US and Western countries in the hope of building military strength... But now it has become like a dying patient on life support.... Accept the reality before mocking Someone....

[@chrischrisdaman]

@@arupmallick3923 better than the country who hadn’t learned from the Germans who they “single handedly defeated” (when in reality their logistics were shite, a problem they still gave today) The Russian military was long thought an absolute juggernaut with top of the line equipment. I guess it would be top if the line If it actually worked worked correctly

[@testrabbit]

I had a professor who worked on the Russian "space shuttle" program. Very nice guy, but I thought he was kidding when he said they turned it into a tourist attraction and restaurant complex so he came to the USA to teach mathematics. Subsequently to my interrogative as to whether he was joking he decided to bring in a VHS tape of when the conversion happened to show the students something about history that definitely falls outside the purview of teaching mathematics.

[@BY-pn2ry]

That is worth sharing

[@Lanwarder]

Numerous world leaders have mentioned that Putin hasn't been the same since Covid-19. He apparently spent most his time isolated and did a lot of reading of books depicting a very embellished version of Russian history. I don't know to what extent it is true, but I definitely heard multiple world leader say that Putin just wasn't the same, and that even though he never was especially easy to deal with, he now seemed more.....let's say "disconnected from reality",

[@adolfshitler]

Guaranteed he's been planning this for at least 10 years, probably more!

[@TheDennys21]

@@adolfshitler absolutely!

[@Lanwarder]

@@adolfshitler Probably, but I think that isolation might have contributed to miscalculate how Ukrainians, and Ukraine's allies to react. The war is far from over, but I think that Putin being isolated, and only receiving the answers he wants to receive from his advisers probably made him overly confident that his plan would work.

[@adolfshitler]

@@Lanwarder No doubts of that

[@schakiarligonde1736]

He was always like that imo it just became more noticeable after the pandemic happened

[@AndriiF]

Haha! You can find this women in almost all Putin's foto with group of "simple people". None casual person can come close to him for years! I personally saw her on not less than 5 fotos😁. Thanks for your work and greetings from fighting Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@Tespri]

Only Ruzzian propagandists are so incompetent that they would use same actors in their photos.

[@peteramarillo8952]

This is the most brilliant insight into what happened in the Ukraine -russian war. brilliant. Who is this guy?

[@hefko]

Small correction for 2:27: December 31st 1999 was not the last day before turning of millennium, December 31st 2000 was.

[@jeroylenkins1745]

8:00 I think one thing that is being overlooked here is the military response by NATO to the annexation of Crimea. NATO troops were deployed to Ukraine in massive numbers in a training and mentoring role post-2014. This 8 year training support and professionalization of the Ukrrainian forces had a lot to do with how well they did in the initial stages of the invasion.

[@taleon3986]

You are not supposed to say any truth on this channel. You have to keep in line with the Western media narrative - Russia is bad, the West and NATO are good, moral and humane.

[@abc-mr7we]

Angela Merkel admitted a few weeks ago that the 8 years was indeed used in preparing Ukraine.

[@whitegoose2017]

There are no NATO troops in Ukraine. There never have been. Instructors? Absolutely. If the Russian army faced NATO in Ukraine they wouldn't have gotten 20 kilometers past the border. That's just the raw truth of it. Airspace would be 100% controlled by NATO and not a single thing would fly that wasn't fired or sent by NATO. And we know Russians don't have enough of those fancy long-range missiles as they're now firing Iranian ones.

[@abc-mr7we]

@@whitegoose2017 Nato DEFINITELY has troops in Ukraine. "Instructors" = special forces. That's the first thing that happens in any modern conflict.

[@whitegoose2017]

​@@abc-mr7we Ukraine wanted to get rid of its systematic corruption problems in the military that are still prevalent in Russia as both are successor states to the former USSR. Ukrainians knew exactly where to get help how to do that. That's very much different from having a troop presence. Right now there are volunteers from everywhere in Ukraine. These volunteers also come armed with military expertise a most of the times. Oh and special forces? It sounds really silly to say that considering special forces are quite simply "elite" light infantry. Many Westerners are getting flashback vibes to WW2. It wasn't that long-ago that people have forgotten. Russians obviously never learned the history of the past century, ergo they can't see the parallel between Sudetenland/Austria/et cetera and eastern Ukraine. Me, I can't see this war ending even this year. Europeans are willing to superficially bleed over this by sending old munitions and equipment, but really, what we should have done in Europe is go in there and just completely destroy the Russians and say there's no war going on. We are simply destroying terrorists. That's just how retarded this whole affair is. We're waging a war while we're not waging a war. To quote HBO series "Chernobyl" or Valery Legasov, I don't know if he said it or not, "what is the cost of lies?" Russian and Ukrainian lives. Yeah. I feel like ranting about this. Sorry about this. Even here we've got Ukrainian refugees. I'll probably see them at the bar on friday. I will ask you something though. Imagine living a life where you've got everything. You've got the ultimate power in everything. Power to destroy the world, power to take away everything from your associates, power to acquire anything you want and power to disappear people. how does that not CORRUPT a person?

[@1Gsttl2007]

I rarely commented, but I must say that I love the humor and witty words used, in addition to the excellent and insightful analysis! I feel like I was treated to a well prepared lecture. Thank you! Looking forward to the next piece!

[@alexanderwu]

This is much more captivating than a lecture

[@billybarnes1763]

If only it was true.... Lets just leave out the American intervention since the 80s.

[@andreimustata9829]

@@billybarnes1763 Which part exactly doesn't seem true to you? What is your point? He did in fact mentioned the expansion of US influence in East Europe as one of the factors of Putin's aggression.

[@Chakradhar52]

Moral.." one should not chew more than he could swallow"

[@junaho7808]

Can you make analysis video on the sustainment systems of the two country during war?

[@AC3handle]

Being a general under Putin is like being an officer under Darth Vader. Instead of getting force choked, they get forced window walking.

[@yespls4184]

I was in Ukraine during the first round of the Presidential elections in 2019 and I remember how apprehensive people were about Zelensky. I had to be neutral when I was there, but there was something about him that I could see was special. I liked him and felt like he was genuine (despite being an actor and entertainer). I remember walking around Maidan square in the center of Kyiv and seeing candles and memorials to those that died during the bloody revolution of 2014 and the war in the east. It was an extremely important presidential election for Ukraine, being the first to take place since 2014. There were real fears that the democratic gains since the revolution would be lost. After all, Ukraine had many revolutions since the fall of the Soviet Union that led to naught. When Russia officially invaded Ukraine in February 2022, I thought that Kyiv would fall to Russia within days. I hadn't spent much time in Ukraine (just over a week) and had few social connections there, but my stomach felt sick for days thinking about how people I passed on the street were now fleeing a fascist invasion. As everyone says, no one believed that Russia would fully invade Ukraine. Even though I liked Zelensky, I believed that he would flee or be killed early on like what often happens in newly democratic nations. The fact that he didn't flee, I agree, played a monumental role in the survival of Ukraine as a sovereign nation. I'm rarely someone who believes that the fate of nations can hinge on individual people, but if Zelensky had fled I think it's possible that the house would have come crumbling down.

[@yoda2661]

I quote Zelensky in a TV show : "My salary is small, but it's not a problem since we are allowed to take money and property from the Russians. And earlier, the same applied to Jews. If you can, please send me Hitler's book 'Mein Kampf'. They are sold ou there. Sometimes I do morning exercises on the balcony. I do like it, from the heart to the sun (performing a nazi salute)" Zelensky, 10 nov 2014.

[@ihorv44]

dude, you didn't understand Ukraine. zelensky is just pretty picture for western tv shows. he is great fundraiser but he awful top manager. his team is the most corrupted that ever Ukraine had before. his team destroyed economy and instituts of sucsesseful country. so stop beliving him. he is terribul president for Ukrainians. when you told about unresulting revolutions it is absolute bull shit. each revolution gave to Ukrainins much more democracy and rights then we had before. if we lost in revolutions in 2004 or 2014, today Ukraine would be Belarus 2 - country with authoritarianism regime without election and democracy.

[@klauskant8086]

Unfortunately the bloody revolution you mentioned was quite cynically sponsored by the west in order to kill off democracy and hand power to west friendly right wing Ukrainian nationalists - what you have today is the result of that. In an ethnically divided country it was a certain recipe for civil war and predictably a proxy war when nations start taking sides

[@freikorpsdamonisch8127]

Not really. It's exaggeration I think. Because it's, as you wrote, fascist invasion. So with or without Zelensky fighting would be fierce and people resilient.

[@AlexeiVoronin]

@@yoda2661 Zelensky is Jewish. The mere idea that he might be admiring Hitler is absurd.

[@fransschram]

Informative

[@meatbyproducts]

I was in Ukraine helping in the mission to train the Armed forces of Ukraine in 2021, we were not teaching insurgent tactics. We were training higher level brigade tactics and obse4ving their Battalion and company level training being concudted by the Ukrainians.

[@cytrynowy_melon6604]

KGB has actually not disintegrated. It's changed its name, but actually the only Soviet structure that has not deteriorated severely. That's why they gained even more power in the 90s.

[@davexb6595]

This might be another reason they failed.

[@ltfreeborn]

I think the "It hurt itself in its confusion" fits here.

[@kinbeatss]

what a comment

[@serdjoni28]

This aged well

[@rhea7756]

Something being underestimated is the Zelensky effect. Putin tried to leverage divisions in Ukr. Zelensky was the first prez acceptable to both East and West Ukraine. He was in fact more popular in Russ speaking E. Ukr. On top of that Zelensky was the most popular Ukrainian leader. Even though his ratings went down, it was the highest for any Ukr prez. His ratings went down before the war mainly because people were unsure of his capabilities as a wartime prez. He is a strong man with his party securing the majority in Ukr parliament too. In reality, Zelensky ratings was high enough to win another prez term. So under Zelensky, the period of political chaos in Ukr could be over. A strong and democratic Ukr was Putin's fear. So he invaded Ukr

[@davidford3115]

Well, and his famous meme "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition" solidified Ukrainian resolve. I have no doubt that had he fled, Kiev would have fallen that very night.

[@tinawilson4120]

Russian people you have to get Putin's out-of-office

[@Godsplan4ever]

Zelensky was pushed in by the coup plot organized by the American government in 2014, in which the elected Ukrainian presidente was ousted forcefully. If not so,why did the government of zelensky begin to kill the Donbas people of Eastern Ukraine, if they truly voted zelensky into power and did not oppose the coup plot by refusing to support him? That began the blood shed and civil war that are still going on till today?

[@PedroFerreira-ze5yp]

@@tinawilson4120 I´ll second that! Putin has made ruZZia a fascit country and a threat to the whole world, including themselves!

[@joeka8772]

🥱😱

[@davidshanahan5134]

Loving your channel William! Do a collaboration with Perun - both masters of analysis and clear presentation.

[@gaoxiaen1]

I was thinking the same thing. Perun can mesmerize with a Powerpoint and a little humor.

[@Homer-OJ-Simpson]

William got in depth look at all things Ukraine - Russia, Perun for 1hr deep look at geopolitical matters around the world.

[@falvegas511]

Interesting presentation. Any information on Major Leaders esp. Waring Country Leaders provides us Input For Thought. Predicting a Russian Outcome is a mindless avenue to tread ... one cou;d go in any number of possible Events such as; a Coup,, Federation Breakup, a Kruschev-Like Retirement, Assassination, Exile, Nuclear War...............

[@presterjohn9088]

I traveled to Moscow to visit a friend in 2011. We were heading to a bar one night and were stopped by a cop. My friend spoke Russian and i could hear some stress in my friends voice as he spoke with the cop. As they talked i noticed how shabby the officer's uniform was. He had an old wooden billy club but had no gun, radio, taser or anything else you'd routinely see on a cop in the West. They finally ended their talk and my friend gave him a 500 ruble note, which was about 16 dollars in 2011. It was a shakedown. It happened almost everywhere we went. It was expected, it was the price of visiting Russia. The cops, the coatcheck guy, the hotel security, hell even the Russian Customs Agent would want a taste. They had zero shame and it was clear the country ran on corruption. My friend later told me that beat cops didn't have guns, unless they bought their own, because if they were issued a gun they would turn around and sell it.

[@billcook7285]

Russia has a very large and modern army. The problem is, the modern part ain't very large, and the large part ain't very modern. 🤭

[@jakeaurod]

Several people have pointed out that the same people show up in different outfits in lots of Putin's PR photos.

[@philliprobinson7724]

Hi. They're actors, he has his very own fan-club. Cheers, P.R.

[@nigelbriggs6880]

Excellent

[@josephmangsuanhau8722]

Thank Q🙏

[@Mikearice1]

The issue behind the lack of western response in 2014 was that there was war fatigue from Iraq and Afghanistan, and the public (and therefore politicians) were reluctant to be dragged into another long conflict. That fatigue wasn't going to last forever.

[@cdjhyoung]

I'm not trying to blame Obama here, but when Russia invade the Crimea, I don't think Obama or the US was prepared to offer resistance or much assistance. Ukraine had a history of corruption, a weak link to the west, and didn't really appear that it wanted to fully remove itself from the Russian sphere in 2014. That is not the situation now. After 2016, with a change of leadership in Ukraine, Ukraine actively tried to align itself with the west and aggressively sought arms and training for its military. For some reason, Russia (Putin) seems to have ignored this sea change of attitude. It also helped that Biden is a known entity on the world stage in the west. He may not be a king maker in Europe, but he knows who to call and they listen. Being to rally the best intentions of our allies in Europe to oppose this invasion is no small feat for any President. Biden also knew how to get support from enough Republicans to be able to get the needed funding for Ukraine.

[@cdjhyoung]

@mike There is next to zero chance that Trump will ever be US President again. He will not survive the Republican primary system, and if he tries to run as a third party candidate, he will only guarantee the Democrats win. The person you need to fear is DeSantis, he is even more of an isolationist than Trump.

[@mooglemy3813]

I agree with some of this. Look at previous Chancelor Angela Merkel and her ensuring Ukraine never got a chance. She got way to close to Putin, gas and oil were the reasons. That's my take on it.

[@nesciusplayground]

@@cdjhyoung Not had, HAS

[@Thesamurai1999]

@Как говорить с Украиной? Конечно на языке ракет🚀 Taliban war strategy didn’t defeat the US. They only took it back when the US left. Didn’t stand a chance while the US remained there.

[@thedukeofswellington1827]

Special Considerations of Night Movement is my favorite Bobvrosky Segar song

[@xavierviaene5022]

Hitler was totally drugged by his personal medical doctor and when he refused to no longer take this medication he started trembling like a willow. Putin drew all power towards himself and could not accept any opposition like a real autocrath which resulted in large corruption in his system and mainly military. The stress and worries that all of his goals may fall into the water puts an enormous stress on an individual which even he can not bear for a long time. But as he pulls all strings , like Hitler he has the largest responsability for this disaster and when he's done, all the cards will fall apart ... those who stood by him ... will try to abandon this sinking ship to save their skins too ... or even worse sharpen their knives already like in Ancient Rome ...

[@StayPrimal]

This video really shows well how Pootin is truly evil.

[@Brian-om2hh]

We didn't need a video to tell us that, but point taken anyway.....

[@PedroFerreira-ze5yp]

He´s a textbook case psychopath

[@elkosins1686]

Zelenskyy looks so uncomfortable wearing a suit and tie I gotta say the military fatigues work way better

[@tinawilson4120]

Putin will kill every man that's in Russia just to prove his point

[@beerandrockets7526]

Buddy, I've always loved lines on maps.

[@danielduesentriebjunior]

Very good analysis! Every population has the government that it deserves. It's in the Russians hands to stop acting like cowards and to change it.

[@aiyadwolf]

This is definitely my favorite from you! Thank you for putting it all together, excellent!

[@caylynmillard76]

Please. I mean PLEASE make more of these videos asap. I wait for weeks for your content because I love the depth and insight you have. I check KZbin almost everyday! Thanks for the great content

[@ThunderAppeal]

I'm sure you would have been thrilled if adolf shitler was still alive, I know you would be waiting eagerly for germanys war reports regularly.

[@nzs316]

Just tap the bell icon and you will get an alert the moment there is new material.

[@alexanderwu]

Nah I don't want him to burn out

[@caylynmillard76]

@@ThunderAppeal good one…😅

[@caylynmillard76]

@@alexanderwu clever 😅

[@eastcoastwatch672]

What’s up with Putin’s toy soldiers with that weird head tilt and follow of Putin walking by?All they need is some lipstick and rouge on their cheeks to complete the toy soldier get up! 😂

[@xray3336]

A good summay. 👍

[@118Shadow118]

That woman you mentioned in the end (along with some other people) is seen in many of Putin's publicity photos

[@Vilamus]

I want to joke that Putin is doing this to impress his women, who is this lass in the photos But...I am scared that in 30 years time, that was the real reason Putin invades Ukraine xD

[@LeCharles07]

"Straight out of central casting" Donald Trump

[@SnabbKassa]

yes, they are actors, who are used repeatedly, because Putin is scared to be photographed with random people.

[@magr7424]

Fantastic analysis! I would like to add a personal experience of mine that convinced me on February 25th, that Ukraine will fight no matter what to defend their country I live in Heidelberg, Germany. 10 km away is Mannheim, there is a big railway hub connection between all trains coming from France and southwest Europe linking to railway that leads to Berlin and then to eastern Europe, Poland and Ukraine. On the morning of February 25th I was at the big Mannheim railway station to drive back to Heidelberg. I realized there were much more people as usual, I sensed kind of a unrest, tension in the air, so I went back into the station and saw many young men with backpacks. I asked some guys what is going on and they told me they wait to trains to Berlin and Poland. I went with them to the tracks and trains from France arrived packed with young men, holding out ukrainian flags, French flags, german flags and the men on the tracks were cheering and step into the trains. Many of them were ukrainians living in Germany France Spain Portugal... And Many of them were Germans, French volunteers who wanted to help. I gave the guys around me all the money I had in my pocket and wished them good luck and that they stay save, I was very emotional, they were driving to a war! in Europe! against a gigantic and brutal Russian army and I don't know if they are still alive.. I realized at that moment that Pootin has miscalculated, that this war will not be over in 3 days and they really managed to stop them, driving them away from Kiew and holding the line against these ruthless Russians.. I hope that bloody stupid war will be over soon and those responsible for it will pay for their crimes

[@GraemeMurphy]

Well said. Watch what happens later this month.

[@rphb5870]

So did the Germans in world war two. At some point it is better to negotiate with a superior force then it is to be forced into an unconditional surrender

[@kevinmccarthy8746]

I would stake my life on the booze being the greatest problem. Imagine almost every dad a drunk and, what that is like to the family and go from there.

[@MrFriesz]

Putin walked happily and stupidly into a trap.

[@SilverfoxJB]

Excellent work. I totally did not expect to watch more than a few minutes. It was better than any TV documentary on the subject.

[@Itried20takennames]

Agree, a great discussion and analysis, and answered a number of things I wondered about - how could Putin think the invasion was a good idea? Did he believe his own propaganda on the state of Russias military, or did he know it was that bad, but thought still enough?

[@yespls4184]

@@Itried20takennames I think he really thought that he could get away with it and drank his own "Kool-Aid", so to speak. Throughout history Russia has successfully conquered regions *and* defended its borders by having the sheer numbers and resolve, despite at times having quite under-equipped and under-trained forces in the face of occupying forces. I don't think he believed that he had forces that could take on the West, but that he had the numbers and resources at least to crush the resolve of Kyiv and cause Ukrainian citizens to concede. Perhaps he did have the US invasion of Iraq in mind; he thought that Ukrainian soldiers wouldn't have confidence in their own government, but unlike in Iraq-- where a major portion of Iraqis disliked the idea of an occupier from a land extremely far away in both distance and culture telling them how to live-- Ukrainians might believe that at least Russians had many cultural similarities and would treat them kinder than, say, the Nazis treated them during WW2. It seems that he definitely had a major personal disdain for Zelensky and didn't view him as a serious person that citizens could place their confidence in. I think he miscalculated Zelensky and he *really* miscalculated how much Ukraine had formed a new national identity since the Soviet Union that was quite separate from Russia and placed value on building democratic institutions and ties with other democratic countries.

[@terencehurst8636]

Anything is better than a TV documentary.

[@bolobalaman]

Nothing quite like a 3 Day plus almost a year Operation The planning to the preparation and the execution was true to its name : *SPECIAL*

[@hamzamahmood9565]

Special extended operation

[@ghostinanutshell4768]

Special needs operation

[@suyashneelambugg]

Can you share a source where Russia had declared it to be a 3 day operation? We all know Russia expected Ukraine to stand down, and then Ukraine has just declared the peace deal in Turkey was aimed at buying time! During that period as well, the soldiers were not advancing. So the miscalculation is rather a case of wrong expectations from Ukraine and peace deal. And lo and behold, Ukraine is falling piece by piece since Russia has realised this won't end with warnings and light combat!

[@bolobalaman]

@@suyashneelambugg Ok comrade falling pieces by pieces ?Is this coming from the same source that proudly claimed it captured 4 regions as some sort of saving face victory after the fuck ups that is called *capturing Kiev in a blitzkrieg manner* ?? To clarify: It was found in memo, journal from dead Russian during Feb and March at Hostomel and other region around Kiev during the most heated part of the battle for the capital. They even found parade outfit among Russian’s equipment and corpses

[@notusneo]

@@suyashneelambugg if i have a dollar every time an Indian try to defend Rusia atrocious decision i would be a wealthy man right now

[@eudaenomic]

Thanks!

[@Gametheory101]

Thank you!

[@supergeek0177]

This guy describing autocratic government of yes-men, pretty much described 95% of all workplaces I have been in haha!

[@pclifton4]

I really need to remember to use youtube's 'watch later' button more, stuff like this is so well done and interesting that what I know I should be doing becomes an afterthought

[@stereomaster4231]

PooTin built this persona that can't quit the Ukraine invasion. It'll be interesting to see how this all ends for him.

[@garynew9637]

Let's see how it ends for nato/usa

[@stereomaster4231]

One delusional old man vs 500 million humans. You must really love old sick KGB agent?

[@alexxie6963]

@@garynew9637 prosperously

[@oddersisadog]

I remember Sergey Naryshkin when he spoke that day. I was like.."Is this happening?" he was obviously scared shitless and worried about getting shot should he say anything wrong.

[@makko1988]

3:03 Steven Seagal ! Left of the screen 😂

[@krisfrederick5001]

"READY! FIRE! AIM!!" -Russian Military Doctrine

[@Kodakcompactdisc]

Also, we will outdie you

[@redcrewmate927]

Ukrainian Soldier #1: Ah, fuck!! More artillery round again.... So how many of us do you think will die today? Ukrainian Soldier #2: Hmm.... I say about 50.... No 60 at best.... Really wish we could at least see one Russian Soldier to gun instead of these endless barrages of artillery.

[@FandersonUfo]

@@redcrewmate927 - easier to drop bombs on orc heads with drones Ivan

[@alltat]

Ready! Aim! Sell the ammo on the black market instead!

[@randomcommenteronyoutube1055]

🤣🤣

[@StefanHoffmann84]

23:40 Haha. I mean, it is not comparable, but somehow reminds me that our military in Germany constantly gets media attention about something that is not working. Good to have these checks.

[@NorNamor]

Those checks are very real!! We had the same shit in Norway where one manufacturer of missiles were chosen over another because they sponsored a really expensive luxurious ski trip to the alps on the whole general staff. The media cought it and it became a major laughing stock in the media and the contract got annulled.

[@jur4x]

In Russian speaking environment they managed to create a perception of blogers not being real journalists. Basically if someone posted anything wrong about the country, most people would simply dismiss them as crying for attention or outright Western agents spreading propaganda. The irony is, most of those independent analysts were way more aware of real state of things than official media. Best example - pension reform was predicted almost 10 years before it happened.

[@georgehewitt1917]

r suzuki.jimmy.jipl

[@georgehewitt1917]

Georg3e

[@ArcturusOTE]

Ah eys, the G36 controversy

[@ulfosterberg9116]

How lavrow can keep on the inside of windows is amazing....

[@CipiRipi-in7df]

Maybe he's to fat to fit in a normal window. They have to find a window large enough first, the lure Lavrov there. :P

[@lakewoodln1060]

Love how you say "materielle" 😂

[@physicsunderstander4958]

He's talking about "materiel," not just mispronouncing the more common word "material." "Materiel" is a different word that specifically refers to military supplies and equipment.

[@Nowageopolityka]

As a Pole and a history enthusiast I am not sure whether Ukraine was a legit independent country pre 1991. But they definitely developed an identity over the last 30 years and they had the right to be independent. They definitely eyed the west rather than influence of “mother” Russia.

[@himachalarana3454]

Please tell us all, if there is a country called Ukraine exists and what are its official borders as registered with UN.

[@marcel621]

@@himachalarana3454 Please tell us all, if there is a country called Russia exists and what are its official borders as registered with UN.

[@himachalarana3454]

@@marcel621 My reply to you has been deleted by Utb AI, it looks like. I will post it in batches.

[@himachalarana3454]

@@marcel621 Section 1 My reply to you comes in two parts. Part 2 will be an answer to your question posed to me. Part 1 will be the antecedent to your posting, based on my question posed to Ericsson, explaining why I posted such a question to Ericsson. Ericsson posits that Ukraine definitely developed an identity over the last 30 years and they had the right to be independent. This for sure goes on the premise that Ukraine is not an independent county. Facebook had some Russians post that professed that Ukraine is not a legit country and that it’s borders are not registered with UN. Corollary to this argument is that Russia therefore had the right to walk in and grab territory.

[@himachalarana3454]

@@marcel621 Section 3 Poles generally don’t like Ukraine. Of course there are some sections of the Poles who like Ukraine, given historical factors, but enmity between Poland and Ukraine is well known. Given Ericsson is a Pole, I was prodding him to tell me if he questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine to be independent country, based on the Facebook postings and the KZbin videos. You butted in with your question, thus all these explanations. In any case, there is no necessity for any country to register it’s borders with UN. Only under one situation, does UN comes into the picture to look at borders. Let me explain further. If there are two countries A and B, which came into existence, say post WW II. A & B , then become members of UN. A & B countries are then allowed to demarcate the land border by bilateral agreements between them. Once this land border is firmed up life goes on. If A & B entered into disputes and a war, say, and subsequently UN was involved in settling the disputes, at this juncture, UN will ask for the border demarcation bilateral agreement, in case peace keeping forces are to be posted. Other than this UN involvement, the borders are not UN concern. My question to Ericsson was to find out if he believed in the facebook postings and the KZbin videos thus positing that Ukraine definitely developed an identity over the last 30 years and they had the right to be independent..