How is the war going? - mid July 2022

[@ronaldbell7429]

"If people can't tell the difference between you working and you taking a break..." Very nicely put. I tip my hat to you.

[@POSoundDesign]

Yes indeed, i will use this on my collegue when i get back to work after vacation, for sure 😂

[@MarkVrankovich]

Of course it could be taken two ways. Either you are lazy or you're a workaholic.

[@nvelsen1975]

As someone who was regularly hired to work along civil servants, that was very recognizeable. 😂

[@NothernNate]

It's always time for an Update from Anders! 🤘😃🤘💯

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

That was good analysis. Especially insightful was your proposed explanation of the Ukraine's announcement of its counteroffensive plans in the Kherson oblast with regard to deterring collaboration with the Russian occupiers and their plans to hold secessionist referenda in the areae they occupy. Consequently, I have now subscribed to your channel.

[@drkzilla]

"as a consequence of your excellent video I have now subscribed to your channel" 🥰🥳😅😂

[@nian60]

It's "Ukraine", not "the Ukraine". Orcland says "the Ukraine" to humiliate and belittle Ukraine. Don't support the fascists please.

[@drkzilla]

@@nian60 ummm don't you mean "The Orcland"

[@nian60]

@@drkzilla Well, I guess you could put it that way.

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

@@nian60 Nonsense. I'm from *the* UK; the Ukraine's receiving aid from *the* EU and *the* USA. An indefinite article is neither humiliating nor belittling.

[@laugechristophersen9913]

It is a Big yes to longer videos! I think your audience is not quite like the average YT-viewer. People who appreciate well-founded takes on complex issues often devote more of their attention to the video - thus allowing the length to be longer without affecting the view count significantly. As other people have commented - look fx to Perun Skide god video!

[@dennisjensen2239]

Hi Anders, Thx for another great update. Question: there have been a lot of videos on YT with a focus on the Kerch bridge as a possible target with longer range HIMARS missiles, but do they even have adequate range to hit the bridge, or even suitable for the task if they can reach? Would/should Ukraine even target the bridge? Some commentators suggest it would be better to leave a route to withdraw from Crimea to Russia....

[@bazileus123]

HAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHAH

[@nian60]

The orcs don't need that bridge to retreat. They can swim if they don't want to become fertiliser. I say we take out the bridge. We should give Ukraine the long-range missiles needed for the job.

[@anderspuck]

I think Ukraine would target the bridge if they could. But it is not easily done, and an attack would have to be big in order to damage the bridge sufficiently.

[@PalleRasmussen]

@@anderspuck bridges are really solid. Meant to withstand a lot.

[@nian60]

@@PalleRasmussen Especially the Kerch Bridge. Putler built it while he was planning the invasion. So it's extra strong.

[@belledetector]

Hej Anders, Next update you can look at the significance, of Smiiny vs grain export corridor out of the south-west. Given the very small Ukrainian fleet, I would also like to understand if they have any chance at all to defend such a corridor, and how landbased missile defenses are the only way to defend Odessa against amphibious attacks. Maybe explain about the current sea mines situation, and how flexible mining is in combat.

[@HegelsOwl]

Sounds like an intuitive presentation by a football player, or high-school student, guided only by what seems to sound right, using such models as the common worker, rather than military models.

[@eric474]

New subscriber 👍

[@osvagt]

I thought you should do a short video about the Bornholm incident, some 5+ weeks ago. It never came :(

[@anderspuck]

Yeah, maybe. But you can't cover it all, and these violations of airspace or territorial waters occur regularly.

[@osvagt]

@@anderspuck Yes, I'm aware of that, but only as a Swede. I didn't thought it wasn't that common, like on a regular basis at NATO territory. Just thought about when Russia violated the airspace of Turkey. Maybe that was done 1000 times before and when 1001 came, they said, "well enough is enough", idk :) Probably it is not that simple, haha.

[@osvagt]

@@anderspuck Maybe that incident got headlines just because of the ongoing invasion of Ukraine? Nevertheless. I'm with all the others in the comment section, that your analyses is the best and most trustworthy I am able to find on this platform. Be proud :)

[@sarcasmo57]

The best thing Russia can do for Russia is go home.

[@jackiepie7423]

so ruzzia went forward by %5 , 2.5 yards in football parlance, and Ukraine is hitting hard there quarter back, so ruzzia called a time out.

[@JohannesSebastian]

Why is the West not doing a no-fly-zone over Belarus/Ukraine border = Ukraine can free up soldiers for the east?

[@Omega0850]

Because that would lead to a hot war between Nato and Russia, which could quickly escalate into a nuklear war... and nobody wants that. (except for Russian psychopaths that want to see their neighbors and families die a horrible death)

[@vestland3877]

Why are you not on the frontline?

[@babahanuman83]

paid by nato "expert" as ugly as: paid by russia "expert".

[@DessicatedCadaver]

This channel and Perun are the two best on the Ukraine situation. I’m very surprised Nielsen has only 22K subs, I hope the subs will grow just as they did for Perun. Good job, Anders!

[@stormiewutzke4190]

I was actually thinking that they would make a really good pairing. I don't know what sort of partnerships people can work out but there are a few very rare channels that actually give good information. I want to see them do well and some of them seem like they would fit together really well. Also military aviation history and whatever the other channel is that does stuff with him both would fit well too. Those guys do stuff together and are a good example of what I am talking about.

[@nian60]

I would like to see Anders collaborate with Operator Starsky, and/or Denys Davydov. I think that would be interesting. Perun is good too.

[@deankruse2891]

Agreed

[@PalleRasmussen]

Anders has a full time job teaching at Forsvarsakademiet, I do not think he has time for weekly videos and building a base. That said, I am fairly certain Perun has a full time job as well. I have no idea how he finds the time.

[@hedgehog3180]

@@PalleRasmussen Well I think the difference is that Anders also regularly appears in the Danish media so he already spends a lot of time on media stuff outside of his youtube channel.

[@ArnoSchmidt70]

He should get the award for "best dressed Yutuber". 🥰

[@anderspuck]

Thanks. 😊

[@eric474]

😂 great comment,..the way how he published very professional,hight educated,..you are honoured by ur subscriber..let it be examples to others youtubers 👍

[@hoodro2]

These videos are very informative. Much better than anything else I can find in the news media.

[@JMAssainatorz]

Expert opinnions are quite valuable these days and theres not rly a huge push in genneral media for longer coverages outside of specialised programs. They kind of have to fit the war into 5 minutes tops.

[@jaysdood]

Agreed, him and Perun are both excellent.

[@kneeco4255]

Search YT for "war in ukraine channel". If you like this, you might like them as well. They have detailed strategic and sitrep updates.

[@heimoernstweiss8207]

Thank you for your very interesting analysis. And for me it sounds open minded and not propaganda for one side. Exactly what the public needs in such a situation. I would say - a true expert.

[@enricogattone432]

Always spot on, won't stop promoting your channel at every occasion👍

[@human_isomer]

Thanks for your assessments of the situation and the analyses. I wish all the other so-called "Ukraine war update" channels would take your way as an example instead of talking lots of rubbish, decorated with some videos and gossip.

[@gorillaguerillaDK]

Tak for endnu en glimrende analyse Anders!

[@eric474]

I hope you are all doing good in Ukraine....its a tragedy no matter how long or how much it cost you all fight for your freedom..i hope peace dialogue talk will be held soon

[@ekevanderzee9538]

Russia had to throw everything they had to gain a bit of territory. Now their Logistics and C2 are under attack, the geography is getting more difficult, the supply routes are getting sparse, they are running out of experienced good troops, their materiel is attriting, they would need winter supplies,…..

[@lorax8172]

LOL, the daggers in this statement "If people can't see the difference between you (RU) working and you taking a break, then that says something about your general pace of work"

[@nvelsen1975]

That burned harder than Notre Dame. ;-)

[@nielskoch2884]

Sindssygt godt arbejde som altid, Anders.

[@BW022]

The other big reason I'm skeptical that Russia is pausing to regroup (or that the regroup is going well) is because of the rate at which Ukraine is being resupplied by the west and specifically the rate at which it is switching to western systems. Yes, maybe a week or two would allow you to switch some units around and such, but... any longer could literally double the number of HIMARS systems, allow Ukraine to stockpile more 155mm rounds, more drones, more AAA systems, get hold of Polish T72 tanks, etc. Waiting a month could start having Ukrainians trained on using A-10s or F18s, or having countries finally give the 300km missile systems to Ukraine. At some point a pause to allow you to recoup 20% of your combat power isn't helpful when you give Ukraine the ability to double some of its key systems, plus a more time to bring longer term systems into play. Technically, in another 3 or 6 months, the US could move 1,000 M1 tanks or F18s out of Nevada and California and ship them to Ukraine. As for intelligence in locating Russian ammo depots... we know from the beginning of the war that the US is giving Ukraine exact coordinates in near real time from satellite and communications intercepts and judging by their ability to get at key generals... the US has clearly broken into Russian communication systems. Given modern computer technology and the size of the NSA and DIA, I think we can assume there are hundreds of thousands of US personnel looking through imagines, radar images, heat signatures, etc. and locating ammo depots, staging areas, command and control areas, radar stations, etc. and sending the GPS coordinates to Ukrainian troops in the field -- and probably sending damage assessments back.

[@nvelsen1975]

Not just the US, the UK too. GCHQ has its grubby paws in everything that's even remotely signals related. It's in civilian use and I never used it during my service so I guess it's okay to talk about, but there's AI that does pattern recognition. At the very least track changes between two photos. We use those for zoning enforcement purposes since they flag new extensions to houses, new windows, changed fence positions etc, which you can then cross-reference with known permits and enforce easily against rulebreakers without having to manually turn a whole village inside out. You can then mark exclusion zones as well, so it doesn't flag entire roads as false positives because of the changing vehicles. If you do this with satrecon of a warzone, the AI should flag all changes, which your analysts can then look at. This means you should be able to get all open-air ammo dumps and most of the ones in buildings because there's a high chance it'll get flagged over changing vehicles. I've heard talk of similar AI that can search for a specific shape, so if you feed them the profile of a Russian army truck and then set them to work on a region's satrecon, it should flag everywhere Russian army trucks are parked and driving.

[@attilamarics4808]

8 HIMARS arent that much. The west isnt resupplying Ukraine in a high rate.

[@57thorns]

@@attilamarics4808 They still have a significant impact. What you claim is like saying that two nuclear bombs isn't that much, until you see what it did to Japans will to fight at the end of WWII. It would be interesting to see a comparison of just how many shells were neutralized safely inside the russian depots compared to the number that landed on Ukrainian cities, I believe I have seen numbers claiming that the intensity of the russian terror campaign has diminished greatly with just a few dozen depots neutralized. And there is no question that Ukraine gets information from US and other nations about russian positions, the difference in military intelligence capabilities are on par with WWII, where UK and US routinely broke the high end cipher used by the Axis powers, while the Axis were making stupid mistakes that helped the Allied efforts.

[@attilamarics4808]

@@57thorns I mean, you cant really compare HIMARS to any nuclear bomb. With the HIMARS missiles you can maybe destroy a building. You know so little.

[@Grissinen]

15 minutes is the perfect time to go deep but still keep the considerations short. Please continue like this.

[@Psittacus_erithacus]

Quality coverage as ever … much appreciated as ever. Your videos are perfect for sharing with folks who will not take (or do not have) the time to read quality content from iiss, RUSI, etc. An invaluable resource at a time when we all need to stay accurately informed.

[@mattholsen7060]

If arms depots have to be over 80 Km from the front lines (or anything much over 60 Km, really) that means trucks can make two runs a day instead of three. That's ammunition AND fuel. That will have a huge effect on Russia's tempo.

[@mariaf.6601]

Also loading and unloading done by soldiers takes time ...

[@PalleRasmussen]

The Russians are building depots in theaters, historical sites, other cultural sites, etc. to try and counter the HIMARS.

[@tomk3732]

Nah, they just have more storage close to the front. Not a big deal. Ukraine did that and they loose multiple depots per day and are still in the fight.

[@mariaf.6601]

@@tomk3732 Lost half of them in a fortnight, if all are destroyed by the end of the month, no problem at all 🤯

[@spacecanuk8316]

Isn't there something in the Art of War about attacking the enemy's ability to fight? Very underrated concept in my opinion. If they can mess up the ruskie's artillery, then they've really declawed the bear. Not to mention all those guns just needing new barrels after such a sustained artillery campaign.

[@mattholsen7060]

Old barrels are less accurate, but you can use them for a while. Fine if you're just trying to hit buildings.

[@drkzilla]

@@mattholsen7060 don't you mean "trying to terrorize the civilian populations" 😅😂

[@PalleRasmussen]

Somebody has been watching Perun 😉

[@hedgehog3180]

The Art of War doesn't really mention that because it was written in a time before long logistics trains and frontlines, it more so focuses on trying to put your enemy into a position where they can't fight you. However On War definitely does talk about how it's simply a more efficient use of resources to attack and degrade the enemy's ability to fight by hitting their rear rather than by meeting them in battle. The difference between the two is The Art of War is actually just as much about diplomacy and politics as it is about war, for example it places importance on securing allies through your movements, but On War is mostly just focused on war and politics with some mention of diplomacy but also a great deal of attention given to economics.

[@krakhedd]

Ukrainians have clearly changed their approach to war to become much more academic in their approach; it's not just two strong men duking it out, it's maneuvers, and logistics, and holding land to attrite advancing forced, etc. It's really quite brilliant and they clearly sought to maximize their combat power. Can't wait to see how they do with a much larger and better armed army. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@santoriniblue8413]

The success of UA in successfully attacking and destroying ammo deports and command posts are another sample of Russian ineptude. HIMARS is nothing new, after all LM inspired itself on the soviet equipment still in use today; polished and provided precision to what was a saturation weapon. Since it appeared there is no Army that does not have or want it. The russians are acquainted with its capabilities, and the announcement was known. You don't have to be a military cadet, to guess what are the targets that can inflict more impact on the enemy. Once its arrival was inminent, they should have adopted a more distributed approach which is precisely the same UA did after the debacle of its facilities in the first moments of war. This is known as "copy the best practices". Acting reactively, doing now what they should have done 2 weeks ago. At least the impact would have been less.

[@zvexevz]

It sounds like the Russians may have been overconfident in the ability of their air defence systems to protect critical targets in the rear. There was a lot of chatter in Russian telegram channels about the tactics employed by the Ukrainians, who would presage the HIMARS attacks with volleys from older Soviet MLRS systems, drawing fire from S-300s and other air defence. Then when the much more precise rockets were fired, the Russians couldn't react in time. That's one theory at least. But you're right, even something like that should have been somewhat predictable. And it says a lot about the inertia in the Russian logistics that they didn't think to start decentralizing their ammo storage upon learning of HIMARS arriving in Ukraine. It seems like the number of successful strikes against large ammo dumps has gone down since last week, so it took those loses for the Russians to act.

[@bluemarlin8138]

@@zvexevz It’s doubtful that Russia can reliably shoot down rockets anyway (Iron Dome is the only system that can), but Ukrainian tactics can definitely help make sure they don’t shoot down ANY of the HIMARS rockets (which it appears they haven’t).

[@tomk3732]

So they destroyed few depots. Big deal. Russia destroys few every day. Its not that easy to distribute evenly at moments notice. Imagine that Ukraine has not even done that as they get hit every day.

[@hellothere9889]

@@bluemarlin8138 You are dreaming.... HIMARS rockets are being shotdown. US have designed these systems assuming they would have complete control in the air. It's time for US to re-evaluate these systems as now they have come up against an enemy not only has air superiority but also has best air defence systems.

[@57thorns]

@@zvexevz At the same time, decentralized ammunition handling requires more resources in logistics, which is the Akilles heel of the russian army. If Ukraine was allowed to strike at key logistics towns inside russia, logistics would be even harder for the invaders.

[@mephistounderwood4917]

I don't think Russia can afford to wait. The Russian economy is almost entirely dead, as it is. Not to mention that Russia now needs to use the ammo stores in Belarus, which indicates to me, that Russia will soon not have the supplies, including basic ammo, to sustain a conflict, especially since NATO countries are supplying Ukraine with newer, more advanced and well maintained equipment. Russia may still have the numbers, but without weapons, it won't matter. They aren't Zergs, if you understand the reference. I just had a vision of all the Russian soldiers, just running unarmed, right at the Ukrainian soldiers, while getting mowed down by endless automatic gunfire. LOL. Ultimately, I am surprised Russia hasn't run out yet. I'm betting there ARE shortages that are alarming the Russians. I mean, they can't even provide unexpired MREs for their soldiers. The Russian advancement is slow, because of supply and maintenance issues. I expect it to completely stall and get driven back, soon, for the reasons I have mentioned. When the supplies from Belarus are gone, they are gone. There is no more. Russia can't manufacture much of anything now. What they can manufacture is low tech and they still can't manufacture much of it.

[@cykkm]

Anders, thank you for the impartial analysis, and, personally, I wouldn't object at all if your videos were longer. I'm mentioning that because you said that the video was too long. It wasn't at all! Keep in mind that we, speaking for the majority of your audience, have very little understanding of modern warfare, from its stratagems to the tactical and operational levels. Please do not think that you're talking too long! Your analyses are so clear and easy to understand to a layman like myself, and I am still confused by the disposition of Russian forces as it stands now! For one, I understand why Russia cannot transfer forces to the South from the Eastern front: it is barely at equilibrium, both sides can be on defensive but neither on the offensive, and this weakening would potentially allow Ukraine a counterattack opportunity. But the rest of the frontline, like the North? They must understand that their chances of breaking through to Kharkiv are slim-to-none, while chances of failure in the South are quite non-negligible. All they do in the North are tying up Ukrainian forces, and likely quite disproportionately: Ukrainian defense requires much smaller a force than a potential Russian offense. And then the Sumy's long line along the state border? Russia has no reason to fear a direct invasion of Ukraine into the Russian territory, that would spread the Ukrainian army too thin, and is beyond their military goals, namely de-occupying their territory. Russia need no defenses there. Why don't they leave this line, and free up forces for use in the Southern theatre? Or they simply don't really have much there besides artillery, and the talk of Russian offensive there is just that-a talk? But even keeping forces, if that's only artillery, for no gain seems unwise. Then it would appear they tie military along their own border only for the sake of political/propagandist declarations: for sure Ukraine has been shared intelligence on the Russian military potential on the Russian side of the border, and if I have no doubt it has, the Russian top brass also should infer the same. To me, the whole encounter seems a war with tactics but no strategy, but I very much suspect I'm interpreting this wrong. This is why I think that a good lecture from you about a more global level of this war, about its global strategy would be extremely helpful! You're talking as if to people who obviously understand that, but I'm sure many of us really don't; I don't indeed. I will be very grateful of an analysis of this interplay between politics of Russia and its military strategy (I understand really none of the latter!). Hope you will find time for this. Thank you so very much!

[@eigilasanta8590]

These videoes by are ideed very good. The level of relevant information from a military perspective and cleansing of day to day politics makes the contents highly trustworthy. It is also evident that APN really knows very, very much about these complex matters. Please keep up the very good work.

[@nickj2508]

excellent work!

[@John900C]

Ukraine seems to have some incredible strategists in their command structure to not only outsmart Russian operations but also leverage support from Western allies, but maybe they are receiving outside help with stategy as well. They certainly are provided with plenty of target intelligence support. This has turned into a proxy war for the "free" world at the expense of so many lives.

[@andersbjrnsen7203]

Its safe to asume they have access to british and US advisors, and others too. It is also safe to conclude that a lot of UA personell, in all levels of the command structure, are smart, innovative people with a lot of creativity and initiative. Russian troops are of course just as smart, but I suspect they lack three distinct "qualities": a)contact with western tactics/doctrine wich is more based on individual autonomy and initiative b) being in a system wich rewards and encourages initiative c) motivation to perform a little extra as in contrast to just punching a clock.

[@blackbirdsr71]

Completely disagree about Russian troops being just as smart.

[@carval51]

yeah getting almost last minute encircled is a good idea

[@Zenoithegreek]

@@andersbjrnsen7203 haven’t seen any of that win a war. NATO got screwed everywhere.

[@historypaul1657]

That's how it has been for awhile... You bet Russia sent equipment to Afghanistan while the US was there... And then Syria; Everyone is fighting ISIS, buuuut, also trying to tweak other factions noses depending on who supports who...

[@TurboHappyCar]

Fantastic analysis, thank you for the effort and expertise you put into these! 👍

[@simonbach3618]

I really hope more people discover your site, i find it is really good serious stuff and qualety work.

[@collinp6880]

Thank you Anders for your informative video and well reasoned perspective.

[@neri21]

Anders, I love your videos. Keep making them. It's very informative and deep.

[@WalterBurton]

These are great for those of us who don't have the time to follow the daily churn. Thank you. 👍👍👍

[@anderspuck]

Thanks. Glad you find it useful.

[@daryljonesfoster4102]

@@anderspuck why did you delete my comment ?

[@daryljonesfoster4102]

Just so everybody knows he deleted the comment where I told him he looks like the Cockroach alien on Men in Black

[@anderspuck]

@@daryljonesfoster4102 I have not deleted any comments, but KZbin has an automatic filter that might have done it.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

Seems like the pressure is real - the operations into Bakmut indicate someone is getting impatient.

[@floydkershner6591]

When you post a video, I make sure to watch it. You have a very well thought out & insightful discussion of the situation. In your next video please include a review of the impact of the coming weather. It is my impression that this war will need to end before the Winter or go into a winter freeze. I would like your thoughts on how this may change the situation.

[@Ornerywalrus]

Top tier info. Always look forward to the next update. Thank you.

[@bc-guy852]

Anders, you consistently produce high quality videos that are well-researched, professionally presented and extremely thorough. I think the analysis you provide are on-point and that you do an exceptional job overall. Each episode! In my opinion - you should have hundreds of thousands of subscribers and tons more views that what's shown now. Great Work Sir!

[@RazvanMarc]

we want more Anders Puck Nielsen analysis!

[@chrisrosenkreuz23]

No way man, they took an operational pause to show good will! Everyone knows that's how Russians are, kind hearted :D

[@mariaf.6601]

Like leaving Snake Island and northern / Kyiv area ;)

[@Taistelukalkkuna]

@@mariaf.6601 That was also a feint, silly. And Donbass is feint too. Real attack will come from....uh..umm....You´ll see.

[@mariaf.6601]

@@Taistelukalkkuna Yeah, must be, because also, "Russia didn't bring their best weapons, which they save for more exigent oponent" (although they lost some best troops and a dozen of generals, I wonder why... ❓)

[@RobBCactive]

Absolutely, that sly western observers cynically predicted Russia stalling after their Luhansk offensive due to heavy concentration of forces requiring redeployment is pure coincidence

[@maxdelaserna9540]

Your subscribers are exploding, congratulations for that :)

[@Mungobohne1]

Take a Shot e everytime he says operational Pause

[@hansjepsen7123]

👍

[@theceohq]

Also leaving a comment of appreciation here. Great context, I learn something new with every video you post!

[@keithgbaker]

1915 and the fall of the Asquith government as a result of the shell crisis shows the problem of a war of attrition, it also wears out the barrels of the artillery.

[@jimgarlans2535]

Great intelligent presentation. Thanks for this!

[@jespertrans7132]

Thanks Anders! PLEASE keep these updates coming! 👍

[@stephenrothman6058]

Why would you ever announce that you are planning an offensive, unless perhaps you are not? I realize that there are psychology and propaganda in war. But normally you would want secrecy about your tactics.

[@jabberwockytdi8901]

The mere fact that Russia is going to Belarus for re-supply of artillery munitions shows how precarious their situation has become. Ref. counter offensive would one really start a counter attack exactly as advertised?

[@jacqdanieles]

And putin going to Tehran to acquire drones

[@jornzander1285]

Your Videos are just the best. The most clearest explanations, judgements and the most clearest maps!

[@jointedlimb]

The fact that Russia is pulling ammo from Belarus just tells me they are actually running out of ammo.

[@georgethompson1460]

@Musk Which is why their pulling ammo out of Belarus? It's weird they'd pull from there if they have all that ammo in their depos.

[@jamiecochrane4948]

@@georgethompson1460 it's closer to the front? Easier logistics?

[@idleishde6124]

@Musk laughable. Russia doesnt store its munitions sensibly, much like their tanks. I wouldn't be surprised if 1 out of every 5 shells is functionally useless even before its put into artillery. This happened to the British prior to WW2, and much like Russia the generals didn't think there would be an instant need for it. Peru is right that Russia has and can manufacture enough arms for a sustained war, but that comes at the cost of the civilian infrastructure.

[@idleishde6124]

@Jamie Cochrane Why pull munitions from out of state if you have enough munitions in state. You don't. The only reason would be if a) those munitions are at risk of capture or destruction, neither Ukraine are capable of, or b) you need those munitions. Moving munitions is expensive and dangerous, you don't do it unless you have to.

[@jaysdood]

Awesome! Thanks champ 🏆

[@samcooke2742]

Thank you for a fine report. An important factor for the future of the war is the commitment of NATO and particularly the U.S to the support of Ukraine. Germany has yet to feel the full consequences of a Russian gas shut-off, and American support for Ukraine is a subject of domestic political warfare. It's easy to imagine France and Germany this winter pushing for peace and gas, and the Americans after the Congressional elections in November again asking why the U.S. is paying for a NATO responsibility. The consequences for Europe of a Russian occupation of Ukraine are also easy to imagine - "The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime." Mr. Nielsen, the situation in Europe, say in 2024, after a Russian occupation of Ukraine would be a good subject for analysis.

[@anderspuck]

Thanks. Yes, the gas question is definitely important. Still thinking about the right way to cover it.

[@PalleRasmussen]

@@anderspuck prik til Perun, jeg tror han arbejder på det samme.

[@RobBCactive]

Europe doesn't have a real choice on gas, Russia is using its supply as a strategic weapon and destabilising the continent's post-war settlement. They've already used refugees in subliminal warfare against the EU, becoming a customer again just leaves a state of uncertainty and allows Russia to rebuild its strength. Germany and some other countries problem is they failed to diversify and prepare for renewed intensification of Russian aggression after 2014. Politically it's easier to respond to Russian action than it is to expend political capital to prevent it. There would always be people claiming that the Russians won't be so stupid, well Putin is so stupid and strategically incompetent thanks to the reality distortion created by authoritarianism. Finally W. Europe has suffered a huge heatwave causing extensive fires, a reminder of the consequences of ignoring climate change. While there will be a debate, the case for depending on Russian supply is weak.

[@phil20_20]

OK, now I REALLY REALLY know what an operational pause is.

[@55mikeburns]

Russia is happy to just keep using long-range missiles to lay waste to all cities, buildings and civilians to drive down morale. If Ukraine had long-range missiles that could hit Moscow, then the Russians would very soon lose interest in this exchange. This message is not lost on Taiwan who does have missiles that can hit Beijing, and are taking this time to build many more.

[@johnathanhughes9881]

"Drive down morale." And in this they make an age-old mistake. During WW2, the Allies tried to use strategic bombing to hit German cities with the goal of driving down morale. This was ironically foolish, since Britain had only recently experienced the German Blitz. In other words the Allies knew FROM EXPERIENCE that destroying buildings and hurting civilians actually has the opposite effect. It doesn't make the people of that city more compliant; it makes them ANGRY and gives them a reason to hate the attacking power. There is a tactical value to attacking cities, but only if you are prepared to commit atrocities like Hamburg or Mariupol where the city is eradicated or nearly so. .

[@55mikeburns]

@@johnathanhughes9881 And the Russians are indeed committing atrocities by attacking civilians. But Putin knows that he will never stand trial, so Geneva convention is dead. But the point is that the Russians would be much quicker in coming to the peace table if Ukraine were inflicting similar destruction on Russian cities.

[@johnathanhughes9881]

@@55mikeburns Agreed. I'm just pointing out that the Russian atrocities are stupid and unlikely to achieve their objectives (even being more likely to galvanise resistance as long as weapons and supplies keep coming).

[@jacqdanieles]

Rather than hitting Moscow, I'd vote for hitting military targets just within russian borders.

[@mariaf.6601]

@@jacqdanieles Right, even if Ukraine had the capability of reaching distance of Moscow, the war of revenge could be won only by stronger arsenal ...

[@hanslundsgaard9563]

Good perspectives

[@thekinginyellow1744]

Really appreciate the insight as to why you would pre-announce an offensive. Educated me on a couple of things I had not considered. Keep up the good work.

[@jbfCanada]

I was hopping for a new update from you. I echo how much I appreciate and like your videos.

[@gavahern]

Cheers Anders, very good clip again. 👍

[@hoodoo2001]

Kherson is not really the prize in the South, it is the Crimean Canal which source is just North of the Kherson Dam. That is pretty much 30 miles to the East of Kherson. The closing of the canal to Crimea could have massive diplomatic consequences. It does require taking both sides of the canal but only in a small area, it's pretty easy to close.

[@57thorns]

Ukraine have diverted that canal already after the invasion in 2014, creating sever water shortages on the peninsula.

[@ohasis8331]

Thanks for the update, your analysis is insightfuland interesting. One thing I think to be of significance would be to announce casualty numbers.

[@krakhedd]

I think Russia will fail in its new offensive because Ukraine seems to be gaining strength and capabilities as Russia loses both. Even with its overwhelming artillery advantage, it has taken huge losses of troops and equipment to invade the areas the Russians have so far. I think, come September, we'll see Ukraine starting to make more steady progress displacing the Ivans

[@hedgehog3180]

I think there's a lot of different degrees of failure here, like Russia will most likely succeed in capturing new territory but it seems unlikely they'll achieve anything decisive just as has been the case for the last two months. They can keep capturing territory at this rate for a very long time before Ukraine really has to worry about it, that's why this situation is so advantageous for Ukraine, Russia is basically the furthest from Kyiv it could be and as such it'll be a long time before the Ukrainian government is seriously threatened in a way that could force them to surrender. In order to change this Russia would need to make an actual breakthrough and destroy large parts of the Ukrainian army but it seems like they're not capable of that, in the last month they've only been attacking on a single axis at a time so they likely can't actually pull off an encirclement.

[@krakhedd]

@@hedgehog3180 I have to disagree. Russia's strength and capabilities are diminishing as Ukraine's are growing. If it's a stalemate now (as it is), then it won't be once the balance of power tips toward Ukraine sufficiently (as we see clear and tangible indications of progress thereto). Nothing short of nukes can help the Russians avoid this

[@lagrangewei]

Ukraine has already use it reserve in Kherson and the result are terrible.

[@krakhedd]

@@lagrangewei you meant Russia!

[@joperamod5760]

@@krakhedd eh no

[@jorgesuanezotaola8420]

Another excellent video. I really like the way you analyze and summarize the situation. Congrats

[@laurencewhite8217]

Thanks a lot

[@LakPak2000]

Thanks for a great video

[@Chantillian]

16:03 "... how things will develop is hard to predict." Rats - I watched this video hoping you'd be able to peer into the future at least just a little bit. Separately, my MIL (a pensioner) lives in Kherson city. Let's just say life is pretty much turned upside down there. REEEEALY hoping Ukrainians take it back soon (without apartment buildings getting blown up in the process).

[@anderspuck]

Yeah, the purpose of this video was mostly to give information about the situation, because I think it is missing from much of the media. I will have more analytical videos coming out, and perhaps that will cover some of what you are asking. I will say though that regarding the Russian offensive in Donbas I think I almost give away my conclusion in this video.

[@Chantillian]

@@anderspuck "...because I think it is missing from much of the media." I agree, if you're talking about mainstream media. But KZbinrs, and especially Twitter, Telegram, etc seem to have this (situational awareness) well covered, imho, and with great frequency. Your ability to apply top-notch analysis is what sets you apart, if I may say so. I'm looking forward to the "analytical videos" you mentioned.

[@RobBCactive]

@@anderspuck Following daily events obscures the bigger picture. In Perun's myth debunking video he showed the Russian control in March peak compared to early July, that really put in perspective the larger retreats against the incremental Donbas advances.

[@cbrbird]

Great summary! Keep it up...

[@exairforceflier1777]

Thank you. Your videos are very informative.

[@Kajun1776]

Thank you for another great video

[@dannanas9722]

Ukraine is happy with their new weapons

[@alandoak5146]

Also, pre-announcing a counter offensive can improve the political support in western nations for military aid: it keeps them in the news and shifts the narrative.

[@richardsimms251]

Excellent analysis and facts

[@spanke2999]

Many thanks for this statement

[@phildar4580]

Meget informativ!! Tak🙏

[@Due6655]

Tak =)

[@ronnybe7994]

What is going to happen in Chechnya with Russia weakened?

[@filthwizardoil]

Love your work mate

[@RIAAP1964]

Good overview: clear, to the point and didactics are spot on. Well done

[@jmacd8817]

Between you and Perun, youtube is the best place for updates. Thanks!

[@anderseriksen2282]

Hi Anders Puck Nielsen: 1 like for this analysis, - only 1 problem = waiting (to long) for the nxt 1. other topic`s in need of your opinion: *- Changes in Ukrainian politic/government/Defence forces. *- Ukrainian Airforce - status/changes - *- Ukrainian missil defence of civilian and military objects. *- Belarus intervention, and Nato`s expected responce = Intervention ????. And as others have commented: we the public need way more "nonbias" information regards this war, than most public media delievering at the moment, once again: thanks for your work, and I will be awaiting your nxt video - - sry it went "a bit long" :)

[@stormiewutzke4190]

You do good work

[@laserprawn]

Gut check--if you announce that you are planning a counter-offensive in this or that region, you are certainly not planning a counter-offensive in this or that region. Unless you are incompetent.

[@laserprawn]

Why not? The forces required for such an offensive--of which Ukraine can probably only muster one such mobile and supplied force in the foreseeable future--will be vulnerable to strikes in their staging areas. Logistical preparations will also be vulnerable to observation. Moving away from dispersed defensive operations to conduct an announced attack would be a way for Ukraine to experience the casualty rates that Russia experienced in the first month of the war--except they can't afford to replace their armour/LAVs and personnel...

[@laserprawn]

You also fail to note that the political rationale you describe is, like the Russian political interference, political interference in military operations. If the point is to accomplish these political objectives, then it is either a deception operation or an instance of politically-motivated military incompetence.

[@wach9191]

Russia will explain losing Kherson as sign of good will.

[@mattsmith4027]

It would be extremely informative if you could perhaps consider making a video discussing why Lavrov has announced an expansion of his war goals. I'm really confused it seems like a batshit crazy thing to do, you're stalled out fighting what might be a more powerful force in a conflict of attrition and very potentially have a clock you're up against past which your military logistics and political stability risk decay. Why on earth would you burn your precious manpower, time and equipment reserves on offensive operations one inch beyond what you need to sell to your population as a victory!?!

[@Tomasz30899]

Very nice video! I really like your analyses on the topic!

[@williamlloyd3769]

You can take an Operational Pause if you have other means to put pressure on your opponent (aka air power). You don’t want to give your opponent a break to redeploy or make other changes. PS - How many rounds can be fired from an artillery system before the barrel wear starts to affect accuracy? Maybe Russia needs time to pull out some more new old stock!

[@anderspuck]

New barrels are definitely an important part of Russia's logistics chain. My understanding is that it is somewhere in the range of 3000-6000 shots before a barrel replacement.

[@laserprawn]

The Americans did the same thing in the illegal Iraq War in 2003. They continually cut down the time frame and number of troops as a result of daily interference from Donald Rumsfeld and his team; the invasion plan was continually changed and was finally implemented in a strange force buildup plan which saw the offensive begin before much of the force had even deployed. Luckily for them they were not fighting an Iraq which had been given much of the world's stock of anti-tank weapons. Unluckily, I suppose they destabilized the entire Middle East for at least two decades and showed once and for all that the U.N. and international law can be safely ignored if one desires to launch wars of aggression of the kind outlawed at the Nuremberg trials.

[@georgekaradov1274]

Well... this did not age well. Kerson offensive... the Charge of the Light Brigade 2.0... they tried....the poor souls... they tried and feed the Rusdians gods of artillery with new sacrifices..

[@freeloader247]

Nothing balanced left from my boi Andreas. Full spead ukrainian propagandist. Announcing plans had a solely reason to keep morale up. "We cant win shit, well, lets declare we gonna win". Sad Sad Sad

[@anotherelvis]

Do we know how many HIMARS missiles that Ukraine has received? Early reports say 100 pods of 6 missiles. Is this still true?

[@anderspuck]

Not sure how many they have received so far, but I am pretty sure they are receiving more.

[@timwohrle879]

Thank you for this excellent oberview!!

[@jtmcgee]

on a tactical level it would be reforming, consolidating and resupplying. basically getting units back to fighting strength by moving soldiers / new recruits in to some units, combining units that are too low or moving small special units into larger ones. getting required supplies and then receiving orders / giving subordinates their objectives / orders and drilling on the next phase. also consolidating your gains and passing intel up posting security, sweeping for insurgents blah blah. I wish I wasnt a crusty old vet (41 today). I would gladly fight for Ukraine.

[@mihugong3153]

Amazing information. Thanks so much Anders.

[@mtmadigan82]

You've got to remember this is the russians. The whole operational pause, and saying it means little. When they were hours from invading, they seriously had a PR person giving a brief to the press that was joking saying we havent invaded anyone, I guess you guys should print retractions for implying we would do something like that. Literally laughing and mocking those in the room about how absurd the idea was. Its even beyond Baghdad bob, we were outside baghdad, caught a cnn clip of that lunatic talking trash and you could hear the arty and gun fights during his brief. It was nuts how absurd that was, we were on the outskirts overlooking the city as this clown was telling the world theyve been beating our @$$ and expect our surrender shortly. 🤪🤪

[@kchall5]

It's a strange time for Russia to take an "operational pause" when they were making good progress in the Donbass. The question is does the U.S. want Russia to be defeated, or to simply supply Ukraine with just enough munitions to keep Putin in an endless resource-draining quagmire?

[@Omega0850]

A deceisive Russian defeat might lead to the end of Putin and his regime, so thats clearly preferable. And what really drains Russias ressources is not the war itself, but the sanctions.