Bad assumptions and the belief in Russian victory

The idea that a Russian victory is inevitable is prolonging the war. Both in the West and in Russia there is a bias toward thinking that Russia is stronger than they really are. This can lead western countries to curtail their support for Ukraine. And in Russia the belief in inevitable victory is a source of countless mistakes and endless war.
0:00 Intro
0:43 Russia wins eventually
1:32 Different measuring sticks
2:05 Russia is not really a giant in this war
3:07 When the West overestimates Russia
4:44 Leads to reduced support for Ukraine
5:24 When Russia overestimates Russia
5:48 Russia's assumptions in the war
7:25 Putin's most flawed assumption
8:44 Russia's reaction to losing
9:52 In denial about war realities
10:41 Motivation for peace talks
Footage from Ukraine by Anton Soroka / Pexels.

[@Welgeldiguniekalias]

At the start of the war, I was also convinced Russian victory would be almost inevitable. I grew up with the idea that the Soviet Union is a global super power, and this idea stuck even after the Soviet Union's collapse. On paper, it all checks out. Russia has many more men, more tanks, more warplanes, more artillery pieces, more everything than Ukraine. It wasn't until the Russians failed to even enter Kiev that I realised Russia was making rookie mistakes, and that their army's combat effectiveness was lacking. It's like Ukraine's most important ally is Russia's officer corps with their bizarre decisions.

[@charlycharly8151]

Exactly the comment i wanted to write

[@GolemRising]

I recommend "All bling no basics" by Perun here on youtube. Its an excellent investigation into why Russia was so ineffective.

[@cv990a4]

@@GolemRising seconded! The TL;DR is that a ton of Russia's military spending is irrelevant to what Russia is trying to do in Ukraine - and that give that Putin has known since at least 2014 that he wants to do this, it's completely absurd that he allowed this to be the case. We should never forget that Putin has the training of a mid-level KGB agent. He has no training in economics, in strategy, etc etc. The USSR was a paranoid society, and the most paranoid part of it was the KGB.

[@slavaukraini3260]

Russia's military is a paper bear. Their only weapon is their nukes. The illusion of being a super power is based on propaganda and the fact they have nukes. Ukraine will demilitarize Russia, the West will bankrupt Russia and its up to the Russian people to decapitate their government.

[@daverose8082]

In February I believed that Russia wouldn't attack as the ground was too wet, that they would wait until the fields were dry and they could sweep across Ukraine in Soviet style waves. It wasn't until the first day of fighting and that the news was that Russian forces had failed to take the "airport North of Kyiv"!!! that I realised I had overestimated the effectiveness of what I had believed to be a super power.

[@Western_1]

I remember chatting with some military folks on a discord and one of them was convinced Russia wouldn't invade. His reasoning was that there wasn't remotely enough logistics in place to support a war effort and then Russians would have to assume they are going to be greeted as liberators. Which would be an insane assumption. He was wrong about the invasion happening, but his reasoning was spot on.

[@dayshon124]

That's funny af honestly, on paper and with proper math and logic, it would have been a no-go, but logic isn't what we're dealing with. After all Putin's objectives are more political than economical, which is backwards since they broke af with all the sanctions, on top of, the rampant corruption.

[@hedgehog3180]

That's also how me and a friend became convinced that the invasion wouldn't happen. Basically we knew that Ukraine actually had a very modern army with one of the biggest arms sectors in the world so a conflict between Russia and Ukraine would be a near peer one and in such a scenario it would be suicide to invade when you only match the enemy army, which the Russian forces did. Conventional wisdom dictates that you at least outnumber a defender 3:1. At the same time to us it seemed like the status quo was obviously in favor of Russia, Ukraine couldn't approach NATO with the constant low intensity conflict and Russia could just keep slowly gobbling up more and more land in a fashion similar to 2014. So we thought the forces arrayed on the border were not an invasion force but mostly a show of force to try to force Kyiv to make concessions but that obviously Russia would never invade because that'd be throwing away their advantageous position, it'd be the best justification NATO could have ever asked for to rearm and massively increase military aid to Ukraine, and it was obviously suicidal. All of that was correct but Russia was not following the same logic we were.

[@andersjjensen]

His only mistake was attributing reason and logic to Russian military thinking. Let's not repeat that mistake! :P

[@talltroll7092]

Yep, me too, but I was leaning more on the well known (I thought) fact that invading Ukrainian territory in February, during the Rasputita, has historically proven to be a poor choice. I further thought that if ANYONE knew this, it was the Russians. Whelp, shows what I know

[@johnathanhughes9881]

@@hedgehog3180 They weren't following any logic at all. Their decision makers had rabid squirrels in their heads . . .

[@johnbarber1824]

"A weird and convoluted chain of weak assumptions that suddenly becomes policy" is a brilliant phrase vastly applicable!

[@maxspringfield]

Yes it perfectly describes failed western leadership.

[@Disinformation_Hoax]

Sounds like our western mindset during the war, alright.

[@apricity4978]

Just like watching a livecam on youtube in St Petersbourg of big screen spectators as they watched the football match Euro 2020 Russia vs Denmark (think the clip has been removed now). Thousands turning up to have a big party, but were confused and devastated when they left as they were smashed 4-1. Actually they must have known that they are not quite highranking in football. But as they were going to play against a country of less than 6 mill they were sure that their size mattered. I'll never forget the expression in their faces and am feeling kind of a dejavu now as things aren't going Putins way in the war.

[@cv990a4]

Yesterday I saw an opinion piece in the US political publication The Hill by an analyst who stated, without evidence, that Ukraine cannot obtain what it wants and that the US is being irresponsible in allowing Zelensky to keep fighting and needs to force a negotiated settlement. This analyst (who, eight days before the invasion, also predicted Putin would not invade, and so has a record of being badly wrong) simply assumes the result he wants. It's incredible that this would be published. We have to recognize that many analysts have, for decades, assumed Russia is the great power it states it is - that the fall of Russia and Putin is a threat to their worldview, and even more so, a threat to their livelihood. For years they have fed nonsense to their clients, and if Russia fails, that's actually quite embarrassing.

[@puraLusa]

That's how lobby works: check who pays for adds and if they are component providers to gas drilling sites for example. Those narratives are also a comping mechanism of big corp loosing profits while competitors are thrilled with the high price and oppen market share in europe. It's so dirty and vile but money talks and it's all about the money.

[@karllewis735]

The Hill is probably financed by Mr. Putin, or one of his friends/henchmen.

[@harpfully]

For context, The Hill is pretty right-wing. Not surprising they’d tend to see things Russia’s way.

[@allanmason3201]

I assume you're referring to the piece by Harlan Ullman. I have no idea what Ullman's politics are, but I see from Wikipedia that he's in his eighties. As an old git myself, I'm reluctant to point out the obvious, but wisdom is not an inevitable consequence of getting older. Ullman credited as the main author of the US military doctrine of shock and awe. That suggests to me that, using the terms Anders employs in this video, a central paradigmatic assumption of Ullman might be that the application of overwhelming force is the only way to win a war. Off the top of my head, I can think of numerous examples where that wasn't the case, but people do tend to fall in love with their ideas, and that can lead to blinkered thinking. As you say, Russia's reputation as a super-power remains, but in recent months we've seen plentiful evidence that the reputation is undeserved. In reality, Russia is the rump of the USSR. It is still a massive country in geographic terms and it is wealthy in natural resources, but it was actually the combined populations and resources of the Soviet Bloc countries that made the USSR a force to be reckoned with. I have to wonder if having grown up fearing the USSR and living through the Cold War, Ullman hasn't been able to adjust another of his paradigmatic assumptions: that Russia is a great power, and any smaller country attacked by Russia should seek the best terms possible rather than keep fighting an unwinnable war.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

The Hill just platforms all the concern-trolls and anti-establishment voices who decided to be against Ukraine on a whim.

[@randomcommenteronyoutube1055]

Even if Russia wins, how is Russia going to effectively occupy one of the largest countries in Europe? Ukraine is also not a pushover, even without Western aid. It has a large army, generations worth of skills and knowledge of military organization, and a younger demographic that is pretty rabidly anti-Russian. If this ends unfavorably for Ukraine, Russia is going to face one of the costliest European occupations since post-WW2 times. Even the 90-year-olds are going to be sending IEDs and Molotov cocktails to Russians.

[@delfinenteddyson9865]

genocide is an option

[@Doberman290]

Just look to Chechenia and you will see how.And there was big difference in mentality.Ukrainians is almost same as russians.Couple years later they together will hate west

[@antonarap]

They won't. They will just keep the Russian part and the coast (I believe settlers from Siberia won't object to free seaside apartments), cause the rest of the country to bankrupt and possibly offer parts to Ramania and Poland to occupy as "guarantor forces". Then all Ukrainian resistance will be against those two. This is an official Russian position as per maps publish6bu Medvedev. Which you haven't seen because of information control in your country.

[@rinsmiff]

@@antonarap read your reply again...and then one more time. Very little of what you said made any sense.

[@luftim]

Russia will never win this war, at least not the way Putin thinks.. All the way from the start and beffor the war, i though what the heck is this guy thinking entering a war, against a country litteraly bordering NATO countries... Not only that. Durin the soviet afghan war, that lasted for 10 years, they could not hold Afghanistan. The soviet Union had 10 times the army it has now, and it still could not do anything significant

[@joethegeographer]

Another excellent brief, thanks for sharing! This one has aged well over the past almost 2 months and remains credible today.

[@geoffsimpkins7650]

I was in Ukraine in 2015 (and beyond) and I asked my friend, who had fought in Luhansk, “What will you do if the Russians invade again?” His response, “We’ll kill even more than last time.”

[@lockbert99]

I never see it written as "Russia invaded the Donbas in 2014". Only Crimea.

[@bluemarlin8138]

@@lockbert99 Well, Russia stirred up resentment in Donbas, trained and supplied separatist militias, paid Russians to move to the area, and even provided thousands of ex-Russian soldiers to serve in the militias. That’s about as close to an invasion as you can get without sending in the actual army.

[@davidelliott5843]

Russia is said to have run a proxy war in Donbas. In reality their mercenaries walked in but Ukraine held them at bay.

[@timgray4305]

But they didn't and now those attitudes are leading to the total destruction of Ukraine.

[@lockbert99]

@@bluemarlin8138 Your comment is still incongruous with the original poster's statement.

[@ohshitjeffrey3741]

It’s so fabulous listening to intelligent disposition on such complex subjects

[@Elbuarto]

I was also of the belief that Ukraine couldn't stand a chance and would fold in days, if not hours. The resistance they put up initially is the biggest contributor to confidence of victory for Ukraine. It showed not only capability but also willingness to defend their country.

[@dimokyosev4081]

At the start of the war Ukraine had 250 000 realtevly well equiped, very motivated soldiers. The US wich has by far bigger and better army than Russia needed 7 months to crush the Iraqi army that was way worse than the Ukrainian one. Unfortunately Ukraine has all their reserves mobilized and Russia does not. The west has basically stopped providing weapons ( the latest 3 billion by the USA will arrive in 9 to 36 monhs, maybe) and ..... well math very rearly lie. Russia victory is innevitable.

[@Muljinn]

And water flows uphill in your world. Russian morale is in the pits, they’re pulling more and more antiquated junk out of stores and they’re running out of bodies to feed into the grinder. Yeah, Russian victory is “inevitable”.

[@robinhood263]

"all their reserves mobilized" "well math very rearly lie" Ivan only can count to ten. Very russian math here. "needed 7 months to crush the Iraqi army" Yeah, leveling cities with artillery shouldn't take that long, right? Another funny thing is that Ivan wanted to pretend to be like American. To do at least what US can do in comparable scale. This should have put rusissya on par with strongest country in the world. Failed at that miserably. Git good Ivan. "The west has basically stopped providing weapons" Obviously, another mantra from Ivan. He really likes to pretend that what he wants to happen is what actually is happening.

[@rosemarin4750]

00:45 "When Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine..."??? WRONG!!! RUSSIA WAS PROVOKED BY WEST. Here the one of the speeches proving the point. From an interview with Columbia University Professor Paul Christie in 2014: Question: "That is, the West does not intend to give Ukraine to Russia?" Paul Christy: “And what does Ukraine have to do with it? Whether a united Ukraine will remain on the world map or fall apart, it has absolutely no significance for solving the main problem. The main task of the events in Ukraine is to separate Europe from Russia so that the Europeans completely refuse cooperation with Russia and reorient their economy towards full cooperation with the United States. The main goal is to tie the European economy to the US economy. And what will happen in Ukraine in general is of no interest to anyone. The agreements of February 21, when the leaders of the Ukrainian opposition and representatives of France, Germany and Poland signed an agreement with Yanukovych on early presidential elections in Ukraine, were doomed to failure in advance. - Why? Yes, because if this agreement were implemented, the discord in Ukraine would subside, and then there would be no question of any severance of economic ties between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, it was necessary to grossly violate the agreement, which was done. Both Russia and Europe were to become hostages to the complete unpredictability and illogicality of the actions of the new Ukrainian authorities. In order to break the economic ties between Europe and Russia, it is necessary to intimidate the Europeans with the Russian threat so much that they themselves wish to do it. The media must constantly talk about the growing tension in Ukraine, about the violence and brutality perpetrated by the Russians, so that Europe is ripe for a break."

[@janhelgehammer5363]

@@dimokyosev4081 I would rely like to know where you get your news from? And please dont come with russian propaganda. If you would be bothered to actualy read news articles from around Europe and the US, you would see that the west are sending weapons all the time and now more heavy weapons. Hell even Norway have Ukrainian soldiers under training and Norway is a small Nation and keeps sending weapons.

[@michaeljrgsholm6409]

Super med dine sobre analyser, der giver et nøgternt overblik! Tak for det!

[@j.calvert3361]

Hey, I understand your Danish. I am amazed....

[@Simon39759]

looking back with the insight of the hugely successful September offensive, this seems like an impressively prescient analysis!

[@johnsaville9210]

Simply the best analysis I've seen on the current state of this war. Well done.

[@bluelogimouse2123]

Absolutely the worst YT analysis of the conflict I've heard.

[@barbeonline351]

If I may suggest, look for interviews that feature Ben Hodges. I think he has a short DW segment out just yesterday. He's a retired US Lt. Gen. living in Frankfurt with combat experience in both Iraq and Afghanistan who when he retired was in charge of all US forces in Europe for four years. General Hodges knows all the actors, has inside information, and I think you will find he can take the complexities of this conflict and clearly (and convincingly) explain where it is all going. Go back to interviews in late April and you will see he knew we would be right here, right now.

[@bluelogimouse2123]

@@barbeonline351 I appreciate that, I will. I'm former US Army light infantry, served in the 80s. Back then it was the Soviet military which we trained to fight against; in addition, I deployed in Central America . I know a US Army Ranger officer who spent some time training the Ukies: I learned quite a bit from him. For the record, I am against the conflict, it should stop at once. That said, it is an incredibly complicated situation that has certainly been mishandled by the West ( the side I understand best). I do not hate Russians at all- I have both Russian and Ukrainian friends. One of my mothers best friends was a Ukrainian woman. From all available credible info I have, unless AFU does something dramatically effective and hitherto not discussed, the Russians WILL achieve their territorial goals. A quick glance at Jane's and/or CIA's World Factbook will instantly demonstrate this guy's fallacy re: the Russian military size and equipment.

[@bluelogimouse2123]

@@barbeonline351 Thank you for the reference, I will check it out. 🙂

[@barbeonline351]

@@bluelogimouse2123 IMHO, you need Hodges to help your thinking/understanding. Russia is in a dire situation. Ukraine has to prove itself once again with concerted forward movement, but I do not expect them to fight as clumsily as Russia has been. The only advantage right now Russia holds is in equipment/materiel. And even that is misleading. We are seeing what HIMARs are doing with that. And HARM and TOW are on the way. This winter could/should be more miserable than last winter for the Russian army. I see Crimea as extremely vulnerable. And when Ukraine does to the Kirch Strait Bridge what it's currently doing with the Antonovsky, it will be Kherson part 2. I know I am seeing results not yet proven possible. I grew up living with the Soviet threat, too. But unlike you, I am all in for this conflict so long as Ukraine is voluntarily engaging. I regret the position of the West to subtly draw this out to exhaust the stockpiles in Russia as a (I would argue, primary) goal of the conflict. But I support it nonetheless. We could well achieve a generation free of any Russian aggression against Europe. Two other YT sources that have helped are Perun and Vlad Vexler. I won't go into explanations, instead I will let you explore them if you find Ben Hodges equal to my description. And for global understanding look for Peter Zeihan talks. He is an analyst (an honest to God professional consultant) with a specialty in demographics. Unless he is making up all his data (He isn't), he has some really impressive sources. Hope it feeds your brain.

[@pjhgerlach]

Great video. It all boils down to what we are all saying time and time again. Send more weapons and don't hold back. Make sure Ukraine wins this war so we don't have to fight another in the near future.

[@brianwarburton4482]

Very well said. It is very refreshing to hear someone saying exactly what I believe to be true, and so frustrating to listen to so many people, including many politicians who do not understand these truths. Hopefully the flow of western weapons will continue to increase, the Ukrainians will continue to prevail, the sanctions will continue to hit so that the truth will gradually dawn on the Russians that they cannot win this.

[@rykwon4535]

Maybe it would be a good idea to listen to some other perspectives instead of “what you believe to be true”

[@brianwarburton4482]

You are making an erroneous assumption here. What I believe to be true is based on listening to other perspectives and rejecting or agreeing with them based on their relative merit and or credibility.@@rykwon4535

[@greghuey6639]

Well reasoned sir. I totally agree that we Americans should stop being cautious about angering Russia. We instead need to look at what weapons Ukraine needs to win as quickly as possible, and give them those weapons - at the necessary scale - as quickly as possible. Slava Ukraine and Defeat to the orcs!

[@berryreading4809]

Sadly the US is more worried about the EU getting Russian gas and oil this winter... If not for that this this war probably would've already been won with massive quantities of US provided equipment, instead of our current method of testing advanced systems in real battle, sending small amounts of decent artillery, and sending range/training grade vehicles in larger quantities... We're a pretty shite "friend" but better than nothing... Anyone complaining about the amount of money "spent" by the US on arming Ukraine hasn't realized that over half of each original aid package was not related to weapons, mostly repaying ourselves(not kidding), and this is now lend lease, not just aid,which it took Great Britain to finish paying off their WW2 lend lease debt to America in wait for it... 2020! Sadly for Ukraine they just don't have an export market that the US is drastically effected by or can really utilize, so they are only "useful" ideologically/politically... That's how governments make decisions... money, resources, relationships with other groups of mass of resources... the people are the last item on that list used as a tool to gain or detract proposals... Being "The world's police" means having to be pretty soulless at times to try and make decisions, people always seem to be the least valuable resource, often seen as burden... 🙁 I want REAL weapon shipments to Ukraine TODAY (along with some ex military contractors to teach the systems in Poland or wherever is quickest) But the EU cannot function, possibly not survive even one winter without it's Russian gas and oil... (because of the existing infrastructure, especially Germany) so what do you do? Russia can afford to turn that valve shut and still have customers...

[@CyberBeep_kenshi]

Clear headed analysis, good. The problem is the number of trolls, misinformation, propaganda. And the people naive enough to believe it.... sad but true

[@PNH-sf4jz]

Absolutely agree. They are out in droves at the moment. Seems to me that they are very worried about whether their performance bonuses will be paid or even be available. Brian Berletic of the pro-RuZZian chanel, "The New Atlas", looked very much less of his usual self assured, confident self today, despite the fact that he said he was taking some time out with his family, I believe in Thailand. He seemed quite dour. I have to struggle to prevent myself from responding to them. If I do respond they may get a commission on each response which I certainly do not wish to facilitate. Neither do I wish to enhance their standing on the KZbin algorithms, even with a thumbs down👎. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@OlivierGabin]

One thing here, in France, is we have so called "intellectuals" who "denounce" president Zelenskyy as unreliable, a bad politician, a poor actor being here at the Ukrainian presidency as someone not trustworthy. Short of calling him a drug addict as rashist propaganda do... I have an overall positive opinion of President Zelenskyy, and if he was as poor as those useful idiots of the Kremlin said, Russia would have won the war by now, which is far from the reality... Yes, we can criticize President Zelenskyy (and I think there would be matter to do after the Ukrainian victory), but this kind of lame critics based on his past as TV actor is stupid, and plays in the hands of Putin.

[@PNH-sf4jz]

​@@OlivierGabin I hear what you are saying about regard for President Zelensky. However, I doubt that there are many politicians, or people, whatever their moral compass and ethical standards, who feel that they have a right to "pick up the first stone" and attack another. My support for Ukraine is based on the apparently united action that Ukrainians have taken under Zelensky's leadership, in defence of their country. It is also apparent from various statements made by Ukrainians and others, that Ukrainians are aware that they are not only fighting to protect their own freedom, but also that of many other countries in Europe. If Ukraine were to be controlled by RuZZia, then other countries, according to statements made by Poo-tin {Putin} and other members of the Moscow menagerie, would be at risk of pressure or attack by Moscow. IF RuZZia can improve their access to the Suwalki Gap, possibly by threatening Poland, Lithuania or both, it would drive a land wedge and bridge between the northern and southern members of NATO. If Ukraine should fall to RuZZia, the northern NATO member countries of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland would be at risk of attack by Ruzzia, as would Moldova {a friend and co-operator with NATO}, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia. And being further away, as are Germany and France, seems not to be a guarantee of safety. If Ruzzia succeeds in its quest to take Ukraine, or even just the east and south-eastern parts of Ukraine, it has access to all the resources of that region, and the industrial potential, since it seems to have destroyed much of the existing infrastructure. It also, then, would have control of the Azov Sea and a major portion of the Black Sea for transport of goods and materials. It also means that Turkey, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Greece are as vulnerable as Ukraine seems to have been. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@jukkasavolainen5620]

Russia loosing in Kherson is similar minor setback for Putin as was Stalingrad for Hitler...

[@poopoo571]

Who needs the bridges? The air force has assured putin they can keep the men supplied by air!🤣

[@allanmason3201]

Well, at least the Russian equivalent of Field Marshall Paulus for the forces in Kherson won't face the indignity of surrendering and becoming a POW. There's reliable information that the Russian Army staff officers in Kherson saw which way the wind was blowing weeks ago, so they've all scuttled across the Dnipro to (relative) safety.

[@poopoo571]

@Vladimir poopin I think it would look more like the Luftwaffe stalingrad air supply mission than Berlin if u catch my drift lmao

[@stingray427]

wdym by loosing? Taking sukhyi stavok is counted already as a victory for Kiev Regime?

[@similette]

i am eagerly waiting (it is hard to bear) for a new video from you - your analysis, which goes against the dogmatically presented "Russia cannot be defeated", has become a ripe fruit much earlier than i would have dared to dream...

[@Nudo1985]

The Norway v. Netherlands comment had me laughing hard as a Norwegian! Because there is an anti-war satire book that covers just that scenario called "War" (Krig!) by Knut Nærum. Had a weird experience as it was set in the future at the time I read it (2005). It was when I served as a conscript in the royal guards (HMKG) protecting along other things the Akershus castle and the national monument. I read a passage about a Dutch terrorist attack on the national monument on the date and time as it was described in the book while on resting duty at akershus castle, a really weird experience - it was almost down to the hour! A truly absurd coincidence and a once in a lifetime event. In summary, if you are dutch lets not have war, ok? ;-)

[@LeutnantJoker]

You guys defended against us Germans quite well back then. I read a book by a Norwegian American historian a while ago about that invasion, which is covered way too little in the English speaking world (probably because the Brits left you hanging and abandoned you without even telling your military). The Norwegian military did very well in the defense.

[@Nudo1985]

@@LeutnantJoker With regards to WW2 I would agree. Like the Ukrainians today. A lot of smart desicions where made and action taken against overwhelming odds. We sunk a massive ship as well (Blücher), took out some high ranking officers and generally did a lot with little. My grandfather served as a doctor in the resistance, partook in the Carnap actions and likely some stuff we will never know. Captured and executed in 44'.

[@scottuehlinger7887]

@@Nudo1985 Your Grandfather was truly a Hero...... I visited Stavanger in 1988...Norwegians were very hospitable...retired US Navy...

[@Nudo1985]

@@scottuehlinger7887 Thank you Scott. Yes, he was, and that is why I have his picture up to this day. Reminds me what he gave so that we could have the good life we live today. I'm glad that you had a nice stay while visiting our country :-)

[@CA.....]

This analysis is spot-on: both clear, and correct. The fact is, Ukraine has "skin" in the game, and as such the nation is absolutely laser-focused on defending it's country. It is well-mobilized, organized, and entirely determined to win at any cost. It may take some time, but Ukraine will inevitably succeed.

[@puraLusa]

Their aren't that much laser focussed unfortunatelly cause they are also spending ressources to fast self investigate of russian agents as they are infested with them.

[@cv990a4]

I think Ukrainian victory is more likely than not, but I don't take anything for granted. The silver lining in Russia's assumption of victory is that it causes them to make mistakes, big ones, through laziness and arrogance. I don't want Ukraine or its supporters to mimic this aspect of Russia (for the record, I think Ukraine is NOT making this mistake...)

[@kyrenthang8633]

You should read the book "What Sun-Tzu knew that Putin didn't", it came to the same conclusions based on Sun Tzu's "5 Assessments before war" found in Sun Tzu's "The Art of War". It was published in early March of 2022, at a time when everybody was predicting the fall of Kyiv within hours or days. It gave me a lot of "I told you so" credits with my friends. 😄

[@BigBodyBiggolo]

That really depends on what the countries respectively consider a victory or a loss This is my very unprofessional opinion; but i read a conspiracy theory once, a guy in the 80s predicted ww3 would be between turkey and poland (why bring this up?). I think in about 10-20 years neither Russia or Ukraine will exist, and will be incorporated in nearby countries. Which is why i thought that conspiracy theory was so interesting. Sorry for the wacky comment, i felt like making it

[@kartikeyatiwari2502]

Russia has a massive disadvantage in numbers since ukraine has mobilized while russia hasn't, russia is still using DPR forces to fight in donbas and not even its own forces... the fact that the attacker is still gaining ground even after being heavily outnumbered is very impressive

[@SveaGra]

I believe you're thoughts are quite right. And that You question the narratives both in the West and in Russia is spot on. My reaction, when I heard about the invasion was: Has russia totally lost it? attacking a big country with large population, You can't be serious! it's impossible for russia to win over Ukraine. And this is a fellow country this will destroy relations to all neighbouring countries. Thank You! 👍👍 - and greetings from Sweden 😊

[@rikulappi9664]

That was deep. Paradigmatic assumptions and causal assumptions are strikingly handy concepts! They describe a phenomenom I have known exists, but never been able to put a finger on before.

[@madalinaanton3253]

Finally someone put my thoughts into words, there are a lot of armchair political youtubers who every time ukrainians advance they are screaming it was only luck and russians are handleing it quite well, I think the guy at the Caspian Report does this a lot. When the ukrainians took Harkiv region he was reminding everybody that the Herson offensive is going quite slow, he waited another two weeks to complain about how the ukrainians had 15 minutes of fame and are not not on a consistent advance, after two months he was telling everybody that the front is stable and the ukrainians could not repeat Harkiv, after two days russians fled from Herson. These commentators make my brain hurt, and they make it out to seem like they are the rational ones not influenced by ukrainian propaganda, because both sides have propaganda apparently and we should doubt every bit of ukrainian optimism as propaganda.

[@lgude]

I was born early in WW2 and remember my father saying many times that when the Nazis attacked The Soviet Union that the prevailing belief was that Germany would be overrun in 6 weeks because of the rapid defeat of France. I agree with your analysis particularly the psychological idea of paradigmatic assumption of inevitable victory by Russia and Putin. Really well done and a relief from the endless stream of propaganda.

[@57thorns]

The reality on the ground is actually the other way around. Russia has spend most of their resources already. Even if they mobilize now, where is the equipment? Meanwhile West is ramping up weapons productions to feed the needs of the Ukranian army. Sure, a complete Ukrainian victory is by no means guaranteed, and the genocide russia has instigated in Crimea (now, as well as during Sovjet times) will make it hard to reintegrate the population in a war torn Ukraine. There will always be bad blood between ethnical russians and the nations they invaded, even after generations. Most certainly there will have to be civil actions against those russians that moved in and took over property after 2014, and there will be complaints if Ukraine handles them with the roughness they deserve. There are a lot of russians that need to be deported back to russia before this war is finally over.

[@57thorns]

And russian stooges talk a lot about the Tartars the used to live in Crimea, but were displaced as part of ethnical cleansing (russification). They want to claim the Ukraine has no more claim to Crimea than russia because the local population was displaced. Anyone want to know what mr H was looking for need look no further that Russia the last 200+ years.

[@aaronbaker2186]

I don't think there will be much bad blood towards ethnic Russians who were in Ukraine before the war, as most of the worst suffering from the Russian invasion has fallen on ethnic Russians. Your point about ownership of property siezed from Ukrainians driven out of Crimea returning home is probably the one exception. Hopefully most of those Russians will want to return to Russia once Crimea returns to Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine could open Crimea to Tartars in Russia and restore some of the historical population of the region.

[@57thorns]

@@aaronbaker2186 There will be suspicions at least. But the Ukrainians of Russian heritage in Sevastopol have seen what Russia has to offer (nothing) and will be more than happy to come back home.

[@udomann9271]

This was the best analysis about the Ukrainian war so far, thank you so much.

[@jaywulf]

Anders is one of the KZbin Gems.

[@ruger6049]

So logical it hurts!! Great stuff. More, please!!! Glory to Ukraine!

[@iceiejest103]

To summarize it: As long as the West keeps backing Ukraine, Russia will bleed to death. Ukraine has enough manpower but it lacks of weapons. Unlike majority of Afghanistan or Iraqi people who did not stand up to fight for freedom, Ukrainian ((95%) of their population are willing to die to defend their homeland and freedom. That's a significant difference between Ukrainians and Muslims. If the West abandons Ukraine, then the West should not talk about freedom or human rights from now on because the world will laugh at them and it also gives China a green light to attack Taiwan and North Korea will attack South Korea because they see the West is too coward and selfish that they won't get involved. If Russia wins Ukraine today, tomorrow they will conquer the Baltic states then they speed up toward to Germany and France like cancer cells.

[@randomdude2832]

"As long as the West keeps backing Ukraine, Russia will bleed to death" that was the starting plan for forcing the invasion, but neither sanctions nor that is working and all it's achieving is fighting russia to the last death ukranian. "Ukrainian ((95%) of their population are willing to die to defend their homeland and freedom" true, and a big chunk of them has already been fighting against the kiev regime for 8 years, now with russian help donbass will finally be free. "then the West should not talk about freedom or human rights from now" the west has been invading and looting the middle east for decades, the west should not talk about human rights or international law at all. "and it also gives China a green light to attack Taiwan" it's not a "green light" pelosi trips etc are provoking china to enforce the one china policy the us and most of the world agree to. "tomorrow they will conquer the Baltic states " why are the baltic states also planning to provoke a war with russia too? it did seem they wanted to when they tried to blockade kaliningrad...

[@aaronbaker2186]

I don't think it is a "difference between Ukrainians and Muslims." We are helping Ukraine fight a foreign invader. The aid to Iraq and Afghanistan were intended to help them fight a portion of their own population that had different ideas of government. Since the groups we backed were a minority, once you leave the majority takes over...

[@maalikserebryakov]

Reported for Islamophobia

[@nobodyherepal3292]

@@maalikserebryakov reported for ligma

[@borgazvoda7590]

Did you say that 95% of Ukraine are willing to die for their freedom? Let me break this down to you. Ukraine has around 44 milion people. 8 milion of them are Russian minority and that minority is literally the reason for this war. They do not support Ukraine, they hate it. There are also 12 million Ukraine refugees that are refugees because they did not want to die for their country. So that leaves us with 24/44 milion or 55%. That is the high end. The number is probably 10-20%. And the second thing, majority of weapons that the West could donate to Ukraine were already donated. What I mean by that is that countries donated stuff they don't need and that they had in warehouses. When those are empty the support from those countries will stop. And it already did in many cases. Less and less weapons are sent to Ukraine. USA is the country that sent the most help. They ran out of weapons to give, so they are now making new weapons that will arrive in Ukraine in 9-12 months. This could be a little too late. On the other hand, Russian military industry is running at full speed. And I am sorry but the only thing that the West is getting in return for helping Ukraine is economic and gas crisis. More and more people understand that. Once those people start freezing in the winter because there will be no gas the situation will change drastically.

[@Xelief]

Love your coverage of this war thus far and will continue to look forward to whatever topics you choose to cover even long after this awful war is over.

[@deepestbluesea_6351]

Excellent, and with relevance to many areas of life, politices and everything far beyond Ukriane and Russia.

[@walterjohnson6357]

Clever man who speaks clearly is a rare find and I have found him.

[@bolarsen4445]

Du er den skarpeste analytiker jeg har haft fornøjelsen at lytte til. Fantastisk dybde og dejlig uden politisk farvning. Ser med spænding frem til din næste analyse.

[@johnnynephrite6147]

hey how do you enter that cool "ae" character thingy?

[@luftim]

@@johnnynephrite6147 æ

[@PalleRasmussen]

@@johnnynephrite6147 you get a Danish keyboard or change your keyboard settings to Danish and check which key then enters æ- I believe it is the ~, but I am not sure.

[@johnnynephrite6147]

@@PalleRasmussen LOL didnt expect anyone to actually reply. You NorEuros dont understand American sarcasm.

[@buddy1155]

Weird, I am Dutch and apparently I can read Danish with very little effort.

[@jasc4364]

Indeed there is also danger in overestimating an enemy.

[@vladvega875]

Thank you so much for such kind words!

[@markhebden1052]

Excellent presentation Anders, thank you for you time and effort.

[@brettsinclair3550]

The quality of the russian military was always poor and now so more than ever. We should be extremelt grateful to the Ukrainians for showing no fear in tackling the Russian invasion and making it clear to everyone what the Russian military machine is worth. Now for once let us hope that we finish the job and I can not agree more with Anders that the way to get it done is to make sure Ukraine has the means to close the store and send the Russians back to their own territory.

[@titob.yotokojr.9337]

In the beginning I also assumed that it would be a walk in the park for Russia, after all it has the second most powerful military in the world. But several months later, I don't think so anymore. And in the process, I have come to the conclusion that Russia is not actually the second most powerful military in the world. I am also slowly realizing that Ukraine will probably win the war.

[@toi_techno]

Great analysis People forget the Russian economy is smaller than Italy’s and no one is afraid of Italy And Putin knows using nuclear weapons will immediately cut off his supply of rhythmic gymnasts

[@cianmartin8396]

my dude, Alot of people are afraid of Italy. I had a italian neighbour who heard i broke my spagetti and now we are in a class...

[@antipropo461]

Did Italy invent satellites and space flight? Has Italy got hypersonic weapons? Is Italy the largest exporter of grain? The second largest exporter of oil? Does Italy provide 40% of Europe's energy needs? Have you any real idea what you are talking about🙄

[@zigagolob4045]

... and, has Italy 12.000 tanks, 4.000 planes and 6.000 nukes?

[@chrisbovington9607]

🤣 gymnasts!

[@Alexander-zt9kz]

@@zigagolob4045 out of the 12000 tanks Russia has ( or had before February 2022 ) most were WW2 Era and evidently completely useless in a modern war

[@ev5380]

I love your analysis ... thank you. Greetings from Czechia

[@philipestabrook2628]

As always, fantastic analysis. I use these videos with my middle school students.

[@krakhedd]

I'll skip all of my ethos and philosophy, but it all boils down to creating better humans --> that doesn't happen overnight and requires application of personal agency --> exposing your MS students to thinkers is definitely in the same vein and all humanity owes you a thank you ♥️💪🤘

[@randomdude2832]

don't, judging by this video it's a lot of dangerous bs.

[@JaBoss397]

good your teaching this in school :)

[@rosemarin4750]

Try to use this: 00:45 "When Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine..."??? WRONG!!! RUSSIA WAS PROVOKED BY WEST. Here the one of the speeches proving the point. From an interview with Columbia University Professor Paul Christie in 2014: Question: "That is, the West does not intend to give Ukraine to Russia?" Paul Christy: “And what does Ukraine have to do with it? Whether a united Ukraine will remain on the world map or fall apart, it has absolutely no significance for solving the main problem. The main task of the events in Ukraine is to separate Europe from Russia so that the Europeans completely refuse cooperation with Russia and reorient their economy towards full cooperation with the United States. The main goal is to tie the European economy to the US economy. And what will happen in Ukraine in general is of no interest to anyone. The agreements of February 21, when the leaders of the Ukrainian opposition and representatives of France, Germany and Poland signed an agreement with Yanukovych on early presidential elections in Ukraine, were doomed to failure in advance. - Why? Yes, because if this agreement were implemented, the discord in Ukraine would subside, and then there would be no question of any severance of economic ties between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, it was necessary to grossly violate the agreement, which was done. Both Russia and Europe were to become hostages to the complete unpredictability and illogicality of the actions of the new Ukrainian authorities. In order to break the economic ties between Europe and Russia, it is necessary to intimidate the Europeans with the Russian threat so much that they themselves wish to do it. The media must constantly talk about the growing tension in Ukraine, about the violence and brutality perpetrated by the Russians, so that Europe is ripe for a break."

[@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416]

@@rosemarin4750 Are you saying that V. Putin is a puppet, and you can that easy pull a fast one at him ?

[@TheEvertw]

"A Russian victory is inevitable" That is what people said when they invaded Afghanistan in the eighties. This situation is even worse than that invasion, because unlike the Afghans, Ukraine has a professional well-trained army and have had 8 years of training in dealing with the Russians. Russia has already lost many more soldiers & equipment than in the Afghan invasion.

[@legrandliseurtri7495]

And the soviet union was much more powerful than modern russia, at least proportionnally to the technology level 40 years ago.

[@shuathe2nd]

@@legrandliseurtri7495 There is a really good video here that breaks down the current Russia Vs Ukraine against the USSR Vs Afghan wars to make exactly this point kzbin.info/www/bejne/a6Cki3qYipd2rKs

[@maxspringfield]

But Russia is not occupying a foreign population, these territories in eastern Ukraine are Russian speaking.

[@paulhargreaves1497]

@@maxspringfield ....but crucially, NOT Russian.

[@MrLogo73]

@@paulhargreaves1497 They are predominantly Russian. Crimea is 70% Russian in terms of language. It was Ukraine, which had occupied them.

[@augustinbelza2418]

Really great description and analysis of the situation.

[@bc-guy852]

Excellent analysis as always Anders. Thanks for the effort. Your lectures are always fact-based, succinct and you communicate so well. You should have (soon will have) a TON more subscribers. Great analysis Sir!

[@Big_Tex]

The idea of a negotiated settlement is so absurd. Russia doesn’t have some legit grievance or need that’s satisfied by negotiating a chunk of land and some policies. If Russia DID agree to anything like that it would strictly be a cynical ploy to buy time and rebuild forces for another invasion.

[@bearcubdaycare]

And if we needed proof, Crimea 2014, and now Russia's invading Ukraine again in 2022.

[@smillner771]

Russia has a modicum of legitimate grievance in that a significant proportion of the Ukraine population in the east, and evidently in Crimea, do have stronger ties to Russia than Ukraine. As many of us in the UK are only too painfully aware, a parallel situation exists in Northern Ireland and is extremely complex to resolve...particularly now that we have a load of nationalist brexiters running the UK government. While i agree there is a high risk of Ruzzia just buying time with a ceasefire, if Ukraine can secure a solid demarcation line, and the west is prepared to help secure that line as we do on the Korean peninsula, then we should be confident that Russia won't try a repeat of their disastrous invasion. PS. i am very much against the increasingly fascist government of Putin, and sincerely hope that the Ruzzians will be pushed out of Kherson and large areas of the south, but we do have to understand that this conflict is not black V white, good V evil.

[@aaronbaker2186]

@@smillner771 true, but most of the ethnic Russians in Ukraine want nothing to do with Russia, especially after this invasion. They have watched what the Russian army did to the ethnic Russians in the territory they have taken and are horrified. 93% of Ukrainians (including a supermajority of Russian speakers) now don't want the Ukrainian government to accept Russian language documents (e.g. driver's license application). This is down from I think 70% before the war. Any Russian who thinks the ethnic Russian parts of Ukraine will integrate with Russia will be in for a surprise.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@smillner771 I don’t know how legitimate that grievance is, because much of it has been generated by Russian intelligence services. Regardless, if there were a legitimate negotiation about the separatist provinces in Donbas, it should be between the separatists and the Ukrainian government. (And I believe both sides are closer to sitting down to seek an arrangement than ever before.) The idea that all ethnic Russians in Ukraine want Ukraine to merge with Russia is belied by the evidence. Only a minority want this, a minority of a minority. Many Russian Ukrainians heroically resisted the invasion from day one.

[@hedgehog3180]

@@smillner771 Insinuating that the situation in Ukraine is in anyway comparable to Northern Ireland is ridiculously insulting to the Irish. The reason why Northern Ireland remained British was because of centuries of English colonization and genocide of the native Irish population. In Eastern Ukraine and Crimea the situation is the complete opposite, the reason why there's even some amount of Russians in the area is specifically because of Russian colonization and genocide of the native populations, in the case of Crimea that popular might not have been Ukrainian, they were Tartars but still. Plus at this point it seems like thee amount of support for Russia in these regions was massively oversold, most people seemed to have been fairly neutral but it's clear that support for the war in those regions are waning as we see DNR and LPR troops deserting or mutinying, and Russia having to ship in native Russian administrators to take over the administration of these regions because the native population clearly doesn't feel any strong connection to Russia.

[@rickymherbert2899]

Great analysis Anders; I think a lot of the baggage we have is that we remember the USSR and it's associated Iron Curtain allies which was a force to be reckoned with. We haven't realized that the sheep in wolf's clothing is what we see now regarding Russia. The Emperor's clothes are truly being reveiled to us. Sadly for the Russian people we in the West have to realize that outright victory by Ukraine, which means we must support Ukraine in this, is the only chance we all have of achieving peace for us, our children and our grandchildren on both sides.

[@rosemarin4750]

Please, stop hypocricy! 00:45 "When Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine..."??? WRONG!!! RUSSIA WAS PROVOKED BY WEST. Here the one of the speeches proving the point. From an interview with Columbia University Professor Paul Christie in 2014: Question: "That is, the West does not intend to give Ukraine to Russia?" Paul Christy: “And what does Ukraine have to do with it? Whether a united Ukraine will remain on the world map or fall apart, it has absolutely no significance for solving the main problem. The main task of the events in Ukraine is to separate Europe from Russia so that the Europeans completely refuse cooperation with Russia and reorient their economy towards full cooperation with the United States. The main goal is to tie the European economy to the US economy. And what will happen in Ukraine in general is of no interest to anyone. The agreements of February 21, when the leaders of the Ukrainian opposition and representatives of France, Germany and Poland signed an agreement with Yanukovych on early presidential elections in Ukraine, were doomed to failure in advance. - Why? Yes, because if this agreement were implemented, the discord in Ukraine would subside, and then there would be no question of any severance of economic ties between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, it was necessary to grossly violate the agreement, which was done. Both Russia and Europe were to become hostages to the complete unpredictability and illogicality of the actions of the new Ukrainian authorities. In order to break the economic ties between Europe and Russia, it is necessary to intimidate the Europeans with the Russian threat so much that they themselves wish to do it. The media must constantly talk about the growing tension in Ukraine, about the violence and brutality perpetrated by the Russians, so that Europe is ripe for a break."

[@rickymherbert2899]

@@rosemarin4750 Oh deary me: someone is obviously suffering from Putrid Derangement Syndrome. 🤔

[@bluemarlin8138]

@@rosemarin4750 ​ Bullshit. Russia is the aggressor. The Maidan Revolution was not a coup (the whole Ukrainian parliament voted to impeach the guy), and it was not funded by the US. Ukraine has been a separate country from Russia since 1917, and was never even conquered by Russia until 1783. Ukraine is the cradle of Slavic culture, not Russia. Putin is a joke and Russia is no longer a major power. It’s just a decayed husk of the USSR, which was really a decayed husk of itself after about 1975. A quote from some idiot professor doesn’t do anything to prove your point. Appeals to authority are a logical fallacy. Go back to your troll farm and enjoy those last few checks before falling oil prices mean he has to lay you off.

[@JayJay-cl4py]

The peace and wealth of the West was obtained by wars and the suffering of people in the rest of the world, now it's changing. Support for nationalists in Ukraine will drain the EU.

[@mariaf.6601]

@@rosemarin4750 Are you saying after the professor that Europeans as well as president Putin are puppets ?

[@joshuapaul2022]

The result of this great Kherson counteroffensive is truly astounding. Ukraine lost only in this misadventure 1200 soldiers (that's only killed, the number of wounded is unknown), 48 tanks, 46 IFV, 37 armored trucks, two jets, two helicopters (all hardware is courtesy of Biden administration and Fed's money printing -- inflation be damned) with exactly zero territorial gains. Zelenskyy regime is shelling a nuclear plant under Russian control. Such reckless war crimes can be committed only out of utter desperation. It reminds Hitler's Nero plan in 1945. I hope eventually Zelenskyy, Biden and their henchmen will be brought to justice or justice will be brought to them.

[@okohanthony5067]

Great analysis. Ukraine must be equiped to win. Supposition that Russia would not lose the war emboldens Russia to continue. Motivation and equipment win wars Support Ukraine to win.

[@jeffreyswhitmore]

Oh, what a difference two weeks made. But you were spot on!

[@ronaldsegage5621]

The moment I learned that the overwhelming majority of the Russian population and even soldiers themselves were not happy about invading Ukraine I knew Putin's war would not succeed.

[@mirekslechta7161]

This man did not know, that Russia is just conducting huge military games in far east and Siberia....? His thinking is as clever as Europe´s polititians who told us long time ago, that sanctions would destroy Russia and had no clue what they were talking about...

[@robertshillary8636]

Thanks very much Anders! Your analysis of the conflict is deep and elaborate! We need more of it!

[@konsum949]

Tnxs from Sweden, conclusion is that we should speed up the shipments of weapons! We are all brothers, Sverige-Danmark-Norway-Finland let us never forget that

[@mikkelharving256]

Thank you once again for your videos!

[@MrFrumos]

Very detailed and insightful analysis. Victory to Ukraine!

[@fittekowner]

In the US Marine Corp. we have an old saying its not the dog in the fight , its the fight in the dog that matters. Russia has already lost, their troops have low moral, their leadership is fractured and incompetent, and corruption is rampant. Putin caused what he feared most, new nations are requesting to join NATO, Russia has weakened its economy, military , and assets. Even were Russia to pull off a "win" they will still have lost. Semper Fi

[@murkeyterky6852]

Completely agree. I understand the initial hesitancy to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons, due to long held assumptions as well as evidence of past Ukrainian failures such as Crimea, but I don't think Ukraine is or was the same Ukraine in February 2022 as compared to back in f2014. Meanwhile, any doubts about Ukraine's ability to competently and effectively deploy western heavy weapons tactically and strategically is beyond any shadow of a doubt. The only factor in broader and swifter success is the lack of numbers of these weapon systems. Supplying Ukraine with the practical means of winning this war is the exact opposite of warmongering at this stage and will ultimately save lives otherwise lost on both sides of this war. Luckily, there is zero ambiguity about whom the aggressor, or "bad guy", is in this conflict, which solidifies the foundations of the moral and ethical imperative in supplying weapons to Ukraine for her legitimate and urgent self-defense needs. I think any attempt to "explain" or justify Putin's actions in political terms is naive at best and those who do mostly fall into Putin's famous "useful idiots" category. It is simply a war of conquest, nothing more and nothing less.

[@rosemarin4750]

What? Naive? This is so hypocritical!!! 00:45 "When Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine..."??? WRONG!!! RUSSIA WAS PROVOKED BY WEST. Here the one of the speeches proving the point. From an interview with Columbia University Professor Paul Christie in 2014: Question: "That is, the West does not intend to give Ukraine to Russia?" Paul Christy: “And what does Ukraine have to do with it? Whether a united Ukraine will remain on the world map or fall apart, it has absolutely no significance for solving the main problem. The main task of the events in Ukraine is to separate Europe from Russia so that the Europeans completely refuse cooperation with Russia and reorient their economy towards full cooperation with the United States. The main goal is to tie the European economy to the US economy. And what will happen in Ukraine in general is of no interest to anyone. The agreements of February 21, when the leaders of the Ukrainian opposition and representatives of France, Germany and Poland signed an agreement with Yanukovych on early presidential elections in Ukraine, were doomed to failure in advance. - Why? Yes, because if this agreement were implemented, the discord in Ukraine would subside, and then there would be no question of any severance of economic ties between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, it was necessary to grossly violate the agreement, which was done. Both Russia and Europe were to become hostages to the complete unpredictability and illogicality of the actions of the new Ukrainian authorities. In order to break the economic ties between Europe and Russia, it is necessary to intimidate the Europeans with the Russian threat so much that they themselves wish to do it. The media must constantly talk about the growing tension in Ukraine, about the violence and brutality perpetrated by the Russians, so that Europe is ripe for a break.

[@Milesco]

Well said, KTG! 👍 (Let's hope Congress and Biden are listening!)

[@antoinemozart243]

You showed how stupid a man can. be. UKRAINE IS UNABLE TO USE WESTERN WEAPONS ! Because they are not sufficiently trained. Russians are 100 % trained. The artillery ratio is 20 /1 for Russia. Dont believe this idiot !

[@NoName-ip4tt]

In order to beat your enemy, you need to beat its hope first. One lesson that I learned from this video!

[@TheSteinbitt]

“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the second best is today”

[@CyberBeep_kenshi]

Nice one

[@larsjacobsen887]

Tak Anders for endnu et super godt indlæg. Glæder mig allerede til dit næste 🙂 Det er spændende at følge udviklingen fra dag til dag, selvom det selvfølgelig havde været bedst uden!

[@flemmingbrendebjerg9080]

Interessante og skarpe analyser. Tak for dem

[@nateroot]

Appreciate the concept of “transformative learning” thank you for that.

[@bencepantya2173]

God I like this guy's videos so much on the Ukraine war topic.

[@igorminin8614]

Brilliant explanation. I hope this realization will come fast to the minds of the western governments and regular people.

[@ETBrooD]

Spot on. In reality it's quite the opposite - Ukraine's victory is almost inevitable. Unfortunately it'll likely take years.

[@Laudrengen]

Always exciting when a new vid pops up!

[@tiitsaul9036]

I discovered and subscribed to your channel just couple of minutes ago. Good to see a fresh content just popped up.

[@utbb57]

I knew Ukraine would win within the first few days. If Zelensky had listened to the West and bugged out, it would be a different story, but he didn't want a ride, he just needed ammo. If one side has millions of hopping mad, dedicated fighters and the other has to beg, borrow or steal soldiers, it's only a matter of time.

[@OleDiaBole]

Dear God, things you people belive. Delusion level msm got you in, is breathtaking.

[@zigagolob4045]

You should stop watching West propaganda... Many would run to Russia side if Ukrainian nazis and ultra nationalists would not point the gun in their had and force them fighting...

[@utbb57]

@@zigagolob4045 Ahhh, the old Ukrainian Jewish, Homo Nazi propaganda. It's a classic, delusional, but a classic. Sorry Comrade, but Ukrainians will not be running to the warm embrace of Putin and his merry band of psychopaths.

[@LCTesla]

I think your point about the paradigmatic assumption of Russian greatness also says something about what the impact of Russian defeat could be to its culture. The nation may end up deeply wounded by this and transform itself in a way similar to how Germany did post WW2. Wishful thinking perhaps, but a possibility.

[@chrisbovington9607]

As a student of history, I knew this and was saying as much from the beginning but you laid it out beautifully.

[@W1se0ldg33zer]

A 'NATO official' said they have huge amounts of all sorts of weaponry and supplies that Ukraine has access to but they simply don't have the forces to use it. So it doesn't get sent there because then it would all become targets from sitting packed together in warehouses in Ukraine. Russia can't target it when it's sitting in Germany and Poland. So in the meantime they get sent things they can use. Like for example they can use the 50 HIMARS that are on a ship right now heading there. You can sneak in 50 of those but it's not so easy to be sending in supplies to help out an entire division, for example.

[@dpelpal]

Thank you for all the great content Anders! More, please.🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@stormjensen1]

Excellent to discuss philosophy and transformative learning in this setting. Well done

[@wai828]

One might argue Russia already lost, even if Ukraine surrenders tomorrow. The damage done to Russia army, reputation and economy is already not worth it.

[@BLMVDV]

Because you said so ?

[@wai828]

​@@BLMVDV No, it's just basic logic. There is no way controlling Ukraine is worth: - NATO finally getting a common enemy again with Sweden and Norway joining them - The Ukrainian people being an enemy to Russia for generations to come (good luck with the occupation) - Europe slowly finding other energy source to replace Russia gas - Massive losses in the Russia army, which now looks like a circus - Russia virtually losing all its soft power over night - All the economic sanctions And it's getting worse everyday. :-/

[@BLMVDV]

@@wai828 1- Nato is already an aggressive bloc by nature, it was welcoming new countries without russia's activity, so they would have joined sooner or later. 2 No. I remember they also talked about Chechens, and what happened? I remind you that everyone forgot that such a discussion took place, and pretended it did not exist. 3- Fake! Just look at the resource imports over the last year and today (energy exports from Russia to the EU - oil, gas, C.). Oil Jan. - June. 2021: €31 bln Jan. - June. 2022: €52 billion Natural gas (blue). Jan. - Jun. 2021: €7 billion Jan. - Jun. 2022: €24 billion Coal Jan. - Jun. 2021: €1.8 billion Jan. - Jun. 2022: €4.9 billion 4 - The massive losses of the Russian side are simply not factual. The only side that claims such losses is Ukraine, which in itself already makes us question the adequacy of the information (PR perhaps) ghost of Kiev, death of Prigozhin, etc. (it would be strange that a Russian group of 70K could attack and defend against a 1000K Ukrainian army with NATO weapons and intelligence) 5 -russia has had no soft power since 2015. Nothing has changed since then. 6 quite pathetic for the west making 50+% of world GDP in 7 months against a country with 1.3% of world GDP only manages to remove 4% of R. annual GDP. The question is who has lost more reputation here?

[@wai828]

@@BLMVDV "Nato is already an aggressive bloc by nature" Ah yes, the naturally aggressive... defensive alliance. It makes sense. "it was welcoming new countries without russia's activity, so they would have joined sooner or later. " Incorrect. NATO only accepts countries with a population willing to join them, and until Russia aggression of Ukraine, Norwegians and Swedes had no reason to join. "Just look at the resource imports over the last year and today" Not only your comparaison doesn't take into account the fact natural gas is currently way more expensive nowadays than in 2021, but also bigger sales are meaningless in the long term. Europe is currently trying to fill its reserve so as to make sure the winter will go smoothly. Nothing in your numbers proves this won't be different in the next years. The reality is that there is massive pression on European politicians, both from European electors and Russia itself, to stop being reliant on Russian gas as soon as possible. It's completely irrational to believe Europe will continue to be a big customer for Russia in the future. " The only side that claims such losses is Ukraine" There are also US numbers, which sound way more realistic than Russia or Ukrainian numbers and looks pretty bad for the Russians. To be honest, even if we only take into account documented loss, it's still unstainable. We know Russia already lost more troops and equipment in a few months than the US did in 20 years of war in Afghanistan. It lost more generals than the US did since WWII (and perhaps even before). It's crazy. I mean, there is a reason why Russia had to stop big offensive operations recently. "russia has had no soft power since 2015. Nothing has changed since then. " Perhaps, but the aggression of Ukraine started in 2014 as a reminder. "quite pathetic for the west making 50+% of world GDP in 7 months against a country with 1.3% of world GDP only manages to remove 4% of R. annual GDP. " Economical war takes time. Anyone who believe Russia would have died in a few months of sanctions has no idea how economics work, especially when it comes to country capable of providing at least most of basic necessities to its population. What's important is that Russia is getting more and more isolated from the world, this means less and less modern technologies or trade opportunities, worse quality of life for its population and the inability to access or build modern military equipment. "The question is who has lost more reputation here?" Russia, undeniably. Imagine if the US couldn't invade Afghanistan and ended up in the first big symmetrical war of attrition since WWII against the Taliban, losing at least thousands of troops, hundreds of military assets (including tanks, planes, helicopters, etc...), tens of generals and a flagship in the process. Good luck with that. I'd probably still laugh at them. Also you didn't really address my point. How can Ukraine be worth all of those troubles, even if you're right and they're not as big as it sound?

[@BLMVDV]

@@wai828 "defensive alliance" yes defensive, the territories of yugoslavia and iraq afghanistan and north africa appreciated it. "Incorrect. NATO only accepts countries with a population) willing to join them". By the way, Russia tried to enter NTAO in the beginning of the 20th century. What happened? Wrong population? "Not only your comparison doesn't take into account the fact natural gas is currently way more expensive nowadays than in 2021. And the price will be . Where will you find a second russia? It's not hot water for the snap of a fingertip, there's no alternative so far (unless you count on Algeria). "Europe is currently trying to fill its reserve so as to make sure the winter will go smoothly" There is no alternative except nuclear power, they are in no hurry to revive it) " It's completely irrational to believe Europe will continue to be a big customer for Russia in the future." My boy, this situation has not taught you anything that business does not care about your political intentions, it will take it where it is profitable. He will not find cheaper resources nearby. (Unless they want stagnation and slow retrograde) "The only side that claims such losses is Ukraine" There are also US numbers, which sound way more realistic than Russia or Ukrainian numbers and looks pretty bad for the Russians. And the UK gave estimates you forgot to add, you know what? They all differ from each other by a factor of 3X to 4X why is there such a difference? . It's not a reflection of reality "To be honest, even if we only take into account documented loss, it's still unstainable." 1,000+ men is an unbearable loss... for a Vatican City) "It lost more generals than the US did since WWII.) It's crazy." Are these the same generals who manage to resurrect themselves like Gerasimov, Lapin, Esedulle? Or is it like with Prigozhin's death again? It is time to learn how to filter information Ukrainians have shown that they lie a lot. ("russia has had no soft power since 2015. Nothing has changed since then.) "Perhaps, but the aggression of Ukraine started in 2014 as a reminder." It's obvious that you only learned about Ukraine after February 24th. I will not comment further on this and leave you with some homework on what happened in 2015 (it has to do with the last oligarchs). "Economic war takes time. Anyone who believes Russia would have died in a few months of sanctions has no idea how economics work, especially when it comes to a country capable of providing at least most of basic necessities to its population. What's important is that Russia is getting more and more isolated from the world, literally only the western countries oradly themselves from russia. I understand the european/centric worldview, but it is good to know that there are more than 40 northern countries in the world. Who knows, they may not have had any ties with russia. Just a suspicion. "this means less and less modern technologies or trade opportunities" all these "new technolics" were limited to the raw materials sector supporting the resource economy and subsequent dependence on the west. only benefits for russia's economic future (as they say for the long term). This is Delinking baby. "How can Ukraine be worth all of those troubles, even if you're right and they're not as big as it sounds?" Depending on what terms they will impose on Ukraine (or the West will impose on Russia) Anyway, cutting off Russia's resources from the West is already very good news and it was worth it. A real chance to overcome the resource curse. ( + 20 million people are good too )

[@twostepaasr]

The same mindset the US had in Vietnam and Russia had in Afghanistan. Thanks for sharing your analysis with us as I had a difficult time, in the beginning, shedding my belief that Russia, at some point, would win this war. Ukraine is doing a masterful job of personalizing individuals online and the notion that what happens to us directly affects what will happen to you.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

Ukraine is winning the meme and propaganda war. Russia is winning the artillery and economic war. Comparisons with Vietnam or Afghanistan are misleading unless Russia is stupid enough to occupy the north west of Ukraine. The territory Russia will take is populated by people who speak Russian and mainly prefer to be part of Russia. There's no reason to think Russian consolidation of Kherson, Mikulayev, Odessa and Kharkov will be less successful than it's consolidation of Crimea and Donetsk.

[@attilamarics4808]

I dotn know how vietnam is a good comparison. Did you check the war maps of that? During the entire war the US and its puppet lost territories constantly, and they lied about their losses in men and land constantly also. So I guess its a good comparison after all, but to support the claim that Russia is winning.

[@georgethompson1460]

@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Russia can't even take Kharkiv, how the hell will it consolidate a city it can't take?

[@MarcosElMalo2]

@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Are you consciously lying to spread disinformation, or are you giving us an example of clinging to faulty assumptions?

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

@@georgethompson1460 1) The Ukrainian army is suffering severe attrition. The Russian army is not. After the Russians pulled back from Kiev, the balance of forces was quite even. Over time, the Russians built up greater forces and the Ukrainians lost their experienced veterans to greater Russian artillery. When the Russians moved on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, it all collapsed quite quickly, two or three weeks. The attrition continues every day and will presumably speed up rapidly now Ukraine is on the offensive. 2) Currently, the Russians are extremely casualty averse. They only take a position when there's no opposition left and an infantry patrol notices vacated Ukrainian defences, we don't see aggressive assaults any more - so their gains are very slow. However the Russians have amassed large air mobile reserves. If it suits them and they want to pay the price in casualties, they can move quickly. Quite likely they'll do this with an airmobile strike because of the thick minefields all over the front now. 3) The Russians currently judge that time is on their side. Diplomatic opposition is gradually crumbling. It could be they want to avoid panicking the West with rapid moves. It could be that they're waiting for ongoing Ukrainian casualties to weaken the opposition. In any case they've got the capacity to fight a lot more aggressively than they currently are.

[@OlivierGabin]

I'm still convinced that a plausible outcome might be a catastrophic collapse of the Russian forces in Ukraine following an Ukrainian victory, most plausible in Kherson. It was what happened in 1916-1917, and Ukraine knows that attrition is what they can do the best against Russian troops. And a Ceausescu-like end to Putin is also a possibility.

[@TurboHappyCar]

Great analysis, thanks for doing these videos! 👍

[@Oddingen]

Tusen takk. Jeg er glad for at funnet frem til deg på det store nettet fordi jeg synes at dine analyser er så logisk basert. Hilsen fra Norge. Slava Ukraina.

[@rosemarin4750]

00:45 "When Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine..."??? WRONG!!! RUSSIA WAS PROVOKED BY WEST. Here the one of the speeches proving the point. From an interview with Columbia University Professor Paul Christie in 2014: Question: "That is, the West does not intend to give Ukraine to Russia?" Paul Christy: “And what does Ukraine have to do with it? Whether a united Ukraine will remain on the world map or fall apart, it has absolutely no significance for solving the main problem. The main task of the events in Ukraine is to separate Europe from Russia so that the Europeans completely refuse cooperation with Russia and reorient their economy towards full cooperation with the United States. The main goal is to tie the European economy to the US economy. And what will happen in Ukraine in general is of no interest to anyone. The agreements of February 21, when the leaders of the Ukrainian opposition and representatives of France, Germany and Poland signed an agreement with Yanukovych on early presidential elections in Ukraine, were doomed to failure in advance. - Why? Yes, because if this agreement were implemented, the discord in Ukraine would subside, and then there would be no question of any severance of economic ties between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, it was necessary to grossly violate the agreement, which was done. Both Russia and Europe were to become hostages to the complete unpredictability and illogicality of the actions of the new Ukrainian authorities. In order to break the economic ties between Europe and Russia, it is necessary to intimidate the Europeans with the Russian threat so much that they themselves wish to do it. The media must constantly talk about the growing tension in Ukraine, about the violence and brutality perpetrated by the Russians, so that Europe is ripe for a break."

[@richardsimms251]

Great speaker.

[@axelvanhooren6325]

Great insights that help understanding what's happening! I love it. Thank you.

[@kooskruit]

My compliments for your objective and clear analysis of the wider picture. I am listening to yr video on 14.9 which confirms many of yr points I.e. the reality of Ukraine’s enormous gain of 8000 km2 territory.

[@sprslyngel]

Another excellent video, Anders. Thank you for keeping us informed :)

[@williammccoy7127]

This man knows what he is talking about,give the Ukrainians the stuff they ask for. Don’t tie there hands behind there back.

[@toucan221]

Agreed Anders, it amazes me how many Generals and analyst keep saying it is inevitable that Russia will. its seems to me Putin has humiliated Russia all by himself, I know enough Russian people are against this invasion, also the very strong sense of self preservation by the Ukraine has shown us how that the Russian Army can be stopped. Thank you Anders. ⭐⭐😀

[@OveRaDaMaNt]

As a russian who lives in russia I've always thought that they stole like 50% of the money and spend 40% on the military. It turned out they stole like 85% of money. The situation is so laughable. I think russian loss is inevitable and I hope it will bring good change to the world.

[@v.pintilie6691]

Let's hope you use a VPN, Jack.... statements like this might land you in a gulag. Stay safe!

[@BLMVDV]

@@v.pintilie6691 Because the BBS said so ? And then they say that people in russia are brainwashed.Don't embarrass yourself like that again, that's my first warning.

[@AK-ej5ml]

I think your point about overestimating Russia is (at least among large countries) most apparent in France and Germany - I really do not understand why they don't support Ukraine with more weapons. In particular France always say that Europe should have "strategic independence" - this is the time to show that this is possible, the without uncle Sam it would already be too late... So Western EU countries, get on with it and start seriously supporting Ukraine.

[@aeomaster32]

I'm impressed with your focus on thinking attitudes, and how they affect real world decisions. Basically it means thinking based on faulty premises, as you imply.

[@larsrons7937]

This was the only channel that really predicted the war to start - and when. On the 25th january he predicted the war to start during the Winter Olympics (ending 20th febr.). As the invasion at its (near-) start had to be postponed for "a few days" (for urgent vehicle repairs) until the evening 23rd febr., I believe Putin had planned the invasion to start during the Olympics.

[@999crypticAFV]

Thanks, as always great explaining 👍

[@mwtrolle]

Thanks for a nice video, we need to get this video out there! I will share it everywhere!

[@MrJacobElias]

As a norwegian i want to say with all love that we would never accept clog wearing flatlanders as our overlords.

[@Jhossack]

Most of my friends think I was nuts for declaring Ukrainian victory mid March. People laughed.

[@arsenk-yan1202]

Same for me, it's sad that these people still believe that Russia will win. I mean we are leaving in parallel realities 🤷‍♂️

[@SMOKEYvsSMOKEY]

When your friend is the largest and most advanced military the world has ever seen, you have a great chance of winning. Good call on your part Jack Jardine. Slava Ukraine!

[@johnathanhughes9881]

Same here. I actually assumed the Russians wouldn't invade simply because it seemed self-evident that it was a bad idea that'd lead to an unwinnable quagmire! (My Dad commented the other day that this is worse than Vietnam was for America - at least the Americans had the support of a small number of other countries (e.g. Australia and New Zealand) and whilst the rest of the world didn't really approve, they weren't supplying the North Vietnamese with weapons and money either, just the Soviet Union (which, admittedly was plenty). In this case Russia is pretty much going it alone, and even their longtime allies are doing all they can to distance themselves from it.

[@el_naif]

I predicted Ukrainian victory ten minutes after watching in total disbelief the news of the invasion, on February 24. I composed myself and remembered the Ukrainian social, political and military of the last decade, plus the fact that they’re fighting for their existence.

[@mrsupremegascon]

@@arsenk-yan1202 People believe Russia will win, because since May, Russia is the one with momentum and who had territorial gain. Ukraine lost an important defeat in North Donbass, the situation is a stalemate since, but Russia is still gaining ground from time to time. The counter offensive we see today is the first major Ukrainian operation since the beginning of the war.

[@ilirllukaci5345]

Hit the proverbial nail on the proverbial head. Kudos.

[@mayfieldcourt]

Excellent analysis, thank you.

[@stupatrick]

Excellent analysis and logic. Hope this is carried upwards and adhered to by those equiping Ukraine with the weapons it needs.

[@FalconAnno75]

Putin will really be in a state of “Steiners 9th army will sort it all out” in the end.

[@RNemy509]

This is a very interesting analysis. I'm glad I stumbled onto this channel

[@janeteholmes]

I realised Russia wasn’t all it was cracked up to be when I discovered that its GDP is about the same as Australia!

[@jackdaniels250]

Excellent and clear analysis amongst a tidal wave of so called experts. Food for thought on the military front and The West is always looking g backwards when it comes to arming Ukraine! Just think of what might have been if had had HIMARS and the best drones, anti tank weapons etc from day one? This war could have been over by now and entire cities and populations in Ukraine could have survived. The only way for this war to end is for Putin to be removed but there is too much focus on the military aspects and not enough on promoting the embarrassing political and economic disaster that Putin has condemned his country to. That message has to be shouted much louder in the press, so it is heard more clearly in Russia, that this disastrous mistake of a war could lead to decades of hardship because of one man's ego. No one, not NATO, America or the EU would ever want to invade or threaten Russian sovereignty. The only threat was to the Kremlin elite who feared freedom and more liberal politics because they know they are guilty of so many crimes for which they would have to pay! Putins disinformation campaign, trying to hide the truth will compel the Ukrainians to hit targets that he can't hide and it won't be long before his Black Sea Fleet will be sunk at the dockside if it doesn't runaway soon!

[@rosemarin4750]

00:45 "When Russia launched the invasion of Ukraine..."??? WRONG!!! RUSSIA WAS PROVOKED BY WEST. Here the one of the speeches proving the point. From an interview with Columbia University Professor Paul Christie in 2014: Question: "That is, the West does not intend to give Ukraine to Russia?" Paul Christy: “And what does Ukraine have to do with it? Whether a united Ukraine will remain on the world map or fall apart, it has absolutely no significance for solving the main problem. The main task of the events in Ukraine is to separate Europe from Russia so that the Europeans completely refuse cooperation with Russia and reorient their economy towards full cooperation with the United States. The main goal is to tie the European economy to the US economy. And what will happen in Ukraine in general is of no interest to anyone. The agreements of February 21, when the leaders of the Ukrainian opposition and representatives of France, Germany and Poland signed an agreement with Yanukovych on early presidential elections in Ukraine, were doomed to failure in advance. - Why? Yes, because if this agreement were implemented, the discord in Ukraine would subside, and then there would be no question of any severance of economic ties between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, it was necessary to grossly violate the agreement, which was done. Both Russia and Europe were to become hostages to the complete unpredictability and illogicality of the actions of the new Ukrainian authorities. In order to break the economic ties between Europe and Russia, it is necessary to intimidate the Europeans with the Russian threat so much that they themselves wish to do it. The media must constantly talk about the growing tension in Ukraine, about the violence and brutality perpetrated by the Russians, so that Europe is ripe for a break."

[@lockbert99]

It seems that the USA wants to give just enough weapons for Ukraine to keep losing. Any less and they surrender. Any more and stalemate or victory.

[@MrCiaranm]

Ukraine did not put up much resistance in 2014. We did not expect this level of effort by Ukraine to save their country and culture, that is a pleasant surprise to NATO. Also, Ukraine is a country that has been traditionally rife with corruption and weak central leadership. There was a very real belief that Ukriane's officers would have sold advanced US technology to Russia for a small profit.

[@BladeTheWatcher]

Yeah, I wish I have seen this a year ago. I was also thinking that Russia's victory is only the matter of time and cost. Now Ukraine has proven that it is not that easy - while Russia could still bomb it to a radio-active wasteland with nukes, I wouldn't exactly call that a victory. Ukraine have proven that they can counterattack and reclaim large pieces of territory, that they can hold back even Wagner and the Russian army combined concentrated in one place, and if it is needed, they can reach targets in the Kremlin. Still, the predictions about the weapons came true - as Ukraine only gets what it absolutely needs to defend, and it is paying a huge cost. Let's hope that it ends soon, and they will be compensated amply, enabling a rapid economic and political development! This war even has the potential to change Russia for the better...

[@theblackamerican1025]

Incredible content, thank you 👌

[@jungtarcph]

Your insights are so cool and really well laid with clear assumptions.