How Low Will The Market Sell-Off Go? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

[@adam.taggart]

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[@user-yy6jo8ob7g]

I'm really disappointed with you guys. At 1:17:30, Lance mentions that he sold on 7/13 all mega-cap stocks. However, in your past weekly videos, especially you even have "What Trades Did Lance Make" section, he never mentioned this. I'll take back my comments if anyone can prove otherwise, but he never shared this information. Lance, It seems like you're either trying to gain subscribers with subpar financial advice or you're being dishonest. Either way, it's not a good look. Adam, I respect you and your honest service, but this is frustrating. Anyway, it's a free video, and I understand the disclaimer that you're not responsible, blah blah blah.

[@RodneyT272]

​@@user-yy6jo8ob7g I don't think that's what he meant. I heard at that time stamp, "we sold down all of our big mega cap stocks". Not sure if maybe you thought he meant all of all of those stocks, but to me that meant just sold some of each mega cap stock. In fact, I have Adam's premium Substack subscription and Lance has the full Bull/Bear Report for each week (highly recommended!), and on the report dated July 20, he wrote that on July 16 they were "rebalancing AMD (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) back to target portfolio weights of 2.25% each." And I believe this was what he mentioned in this video link/timestamp: kzbin.info/www/bejne/bXmmpWqcjsRpmdksi=kLBBJfUFBnetndIN&t=6903 .

[@RodneyT272]

​@@user-yy6jo8ob7g I heard at that time stamp, "we sold down all of our big mega cap stocks". Not sure if maybe you thought he meant all of all of those stocks, but to me that meant just sold some of all of them. In fact, I have Adam's premium Substack subscription and Lance has the full Bull/Bear Report for each week (highly recommended!), and on the report dated July 20, he wrote that on July 16 they are "rebalancing AMD (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) back to target portfolio weights of 2.25% each." And I think this was what he mentioned in the weekly recap video from 2 weeks prior, titled: "Rough Week For Stocks As Credit Spreads Issue Warning" at 1:55:00.

[@christopherherbert2407]

Investing in this economy is a hell at times for the average person that wants full control of their finances. Even investing in ETF stocks can be risky

[@AliciaCrone]

I took a hit in the profit department with my stock moves. But every red chart has a chance of turning green

[@LoydJohnson-kp3jv]

Investing in the stock market can offer opportunities for growth and wealth accumulation, but it’s essential to approach it with careful planning and consideration

[@rodgertim2881]

Good point! The stock market can be volatile, with prices fluctuating based on economic data, company earnings, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment. Not planning your investments well could expose you to significant risks

[@ericbergman7546]

With prices seemingly going up on everything, I'm not sure how to protect my finances

[@ericbergman7546]

I’m looking for where to begin putting in some funds that will aid me after retirement. Saving up isn’t giving anything in return

[@ErinWarner-zc9jy]

The Fed is undoubtedly responsible for the present catch-up efforts, as they were first too slow to control inflation. The pandemic, supply-chain issues, are all contributing reasons to the impending inflationary perfect storm. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $500K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...

[@ClaudiaSchreiber-b1p]

Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown

[@annaj.osorio]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

[@DanielOrstein]

This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors I can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

[@annaj.osorio]

Viviana Marisa Coelho is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.

[@LejlaGöransson]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@alphapyro360]

This is the best show on the internet that pertains to markets. Thank you Adam and Lance!

[@adam.taggart]

Thank you!

[@drew9312]

One of the best episodes ever. Lance’s discussion on the S&P pathway that might well play out in Aug-Nov 24 was fantastic & so clearly communicated (~35mins). Great question Adam asking Lance to expand on it. Thanks both.

[@AuntPeggy1019]

It is good to hear Lance discuss his perspective which tells us what the financial markets are thinking and how they assess valuations. The listeners are living daily lives, and the actual economy is really quite terrible. I am almost 70 and the stores are gone (that is not an exaggeration), the manufacturers are gone, the shelves are thin with product, and many prices are double compared to pre-2020. The quality of public discourse has declined. For people like me, we can't believe the stock markets even stay afloat. In my industry, I see companies closing literally every day, layoffs accelerating, and government intervention driving the ship while it is drilling holes in the boat.

[@Jalleur14325]

It's sad isn't it..I feel like the golden era really was the boomers era..they had peace, prosperity, less tech, more community, growing standard of living. Now we have mental health collapse, societies locked in ideological wars, fragmenting "me first" societies and less and less nuclear families.

[@SomeUserNameBlahBlah]

What industry are you in? I hate when people mention stuff like that without details.

[@AuntPeggy1019]

Understood. I didn't intend that. Healthcare.

[@mirabellereyes2048]

Such an excellent analogy drilling holes in a boat. I am in healthcare too, but I am Gen X and living through exactly what you explained.

[@davidfraser1966]

@@AuntPeggy1019 I’m surprised that healthcare is suffering. We all get old and we all get sick. The longer we live the more healthcare we need. What is killing the industry?

[@bradhollihan5667]

What I like about Lance. He is who is, just a solid portfolio manager that is consistent. Not looking for anything else social media wise but help others maintain and grow wealth. No drama, just business. No worries Adam, you're solid too who built business channel everyone admires.

[@mrolibuilt]

Can not overstate finding your channel was very difficult but well worth it process. Just the facts without bias and superb guests

[@13mae13]

Thanks for another stimulating discussion. Lance, I appreciate the weekly commitment to digging through and deciphering the investment environment for this audience, despite the risk of negative feedback. Appreciate you guys!

[@stevemar8027]

All garble - look at U-6 unemployment- the way they measured it in the 90’s - it’s at 7.6 % - one of the highest readings of all time. We are in recession and have been!

[@thetjt]

One of the lowest readings still. The direction where it's headed may be worrying though.

[@Jalleur14325]

Yes same with inflation readings. If we had the 70s readings it would be double or triple.

[@d.s.8733]

I thought the same thing and then someone asked me in the comment section, who in your inner circle or how many people you know directly are laid off and can't find a job? For me in North West Wisconsin the answer in No one! Manufacturing at window companies is still relatively strong which means the housing and manufacturing industry is not yet showing a massive decline but there are Storm Clouds approaching!

[@jamesdunn5548]

Xom l

[@lukaszstaniec]

To add, red flag was the inversion of eurodollar futures curve in late 21'

[@Psalms96_3-8]

Adam if you have a financial interest in having Lance on your podcast my recommendation is to sever it. Lance, ultimately, will lead your viewers into a bad place. He is the type of man that has an overinflated view of his abilities, and thus, will make decisions based on hubris rather than protecting his clients.

[@ocox8659]

Lance is way too overconfident that any recession would be mild. That’s a possibility but there are good arguments and indictors that it could be a hard landing

[@user-yy6jo8ob7g]

A recession is a hard landing. A hard landing doesn’t mean it is a severe recession. The discussion was about would recession be mild or severe.

[@davidfraser1966]

My take from what he says is that history tells us that even hard recessions bounce usually within 2 years. He’s also able to sell positions super fast if it looks to be going south. If I’m at work I don’t k ow what’s happening. That’s why people rely on experienced money managers. It might all go to shit but he’ll be out (I suspect) before it gets that bad.

[@stevensmith8580]

The greatest strength of your podcast are the personal stories you and Lance share with your audience. Thanks

[@Bltnetwork]

I appreciate you Adam and Lance and look forward to the day I can meet you two in person!

[@Jayshadys]

The 7 - 11 in the beach town I live in Florida is down 100 customers a day. Association dues and insurance rates have doubled and tripled. It’s destroying the residents.

[@jameslee-dp6cb]

It's my understanding that there is a lot of corporate investment in the housing market down there. The banks are destroying themselves as well as the housing market by selling houses to Wall Street. Everyone knows how volatile Wall Street is. It was the absolute worse idea anyone ever had. It has driven the price of housing past the point of affordability. And now, even workers can't afford housing. If you can't buy a house to raise your family in, you don't really care if you work that much. Tourist states come under much more strain than normal because people don't travel as much as the economy slows down. And more people cut their expenses as much as possible. This administration has spent more money than any other in the history of the nation. The trend in major cities have stopped enforcing the law which has led to many companies to move out of those cities and that's a loss of revenue, not only from the companies, but the taxes collected on the products they sell. I think it's just a matter of time that the Federal government has no choice but to start raising taxes. High inflation comes with the printing of money, and usually results in recessions. Hyper-inflation happens when the economy cannot rebound from a recession and the result is a depression. With high inflation taking everyone's money, and high housing prices coupled with high automobile prices, means workers are priced out of any investing and many people loose their homes during these downturns. As the economy gets worse, businesses go bankrupt. I notice just yesterday, that Whirlpool is going bankrupt. 551 stores around the country is closing down. It's not looking good for the US economy.

[@petergozinya6122]

I know that 7-11. An Indian gentleman owns it. Right ? Is that the one ?

[@jerrysteffy7900]

I bought a six pack of Modelo there recently. $ 29.95. Ofcourse Democrats claim there is no Cost of Living crisis.

[@davidfraser1966]

I’m not sure either candidate wants to touch this topic because both administrations have done things to cause it. If you’re rich it’s easy not to see what is happening out there and we are governed by the rich…

[@Dance_of_a_tree_called_life]

​@@petergozinya6122that's the one , like many convenience stores ... since non-indian americans won't , don't take those jobs

[@andrewpowell8377]

Couldn’t figure out why Lance said gold wasn’t a currency. Then I realized he’s right, gold is money, everything else is currency or more specifically debt.

[@brianwills4476]

Lance really doesn't understand the gold market dynamics etc. However it is very valuable to hear his views on gold because it's good to hear what most "main line" money managers are saying about gold. When he finally gets it that will probably be a good time to reduce any positions people have in gold in anticipation of a major correction.

[@khutzey4149]

Lance sold down all his mega cap stocks on the 14th of July while he kept saying we are on a bill market and we might see a 5% correction. Uhmmm .. he didn’t want to share that ? And the Nasdaq has seen a far greater correction. Now he says it’s too late to sell but shows comparative charts of an even greater correction and then says don’t worry, we are still in a bull market. Lance talks out of both side of his mouth.

[@khutzey4149]

Lance is running a WS placation operation. I know he’s your friend Adam, but is there your blind spot ?

[@narativvisuals3605]

Let's be fair, he was probably busy writing an article about it ;)

[@D5MDJM7738]

I promise you, if a major correction happens in the next few months, he's gonna claim this is what he's been talking about over the last few months and he sold everything two days before it happened.

[@EVsSuckAss]

You cant believe anything he says. Just go back and listen to his old videos and you will see he always says he is short and long and neutral at same time and always called every market move. So defensive about ever market tick - he must take hsit from his mom and pop clients all day to make him so defensive. Or go back and listen to his Oct 2022 videos selling Nvidia at $16 or the time he said he would be out of a job if he didn’t buy Nvidia at $130. These guys have destroyed so many portfolios by being so defensive for years and then to gloat with this told-you-so attitude when the market makes a little tick down is mental. Their desire for high unemployment and market declines is sick.

[@timothyha2854]

If we dump 20%, he will say he sold. If we pump 20%, he will say that he bought. This is typical furu behavior. I hope he changes his ways and let’s us know in advance 😅

[@kevinobrien9271]

Question for Lance: If you’re not managing your portfolio based on valuations, what are you managing it on; is it strictly technicals? Adam: Would you please pass this on to Lance? Thanks

[@ricklange7465]

Nvidia valuation was at around 24 times, They are not a $50 trillion company. But you would’ve made a ton owning them over the past year. I recommend reading analysis of the stock market by John Murphy. The charts don’t lie.

[@junglecat7263]

He's managing his portfolio based on macroeconomic fear. That's what he hasn't made any money in two years

[@ericbatres3511]

Thank you so very much for a very thoughtful and excellent presentation. We look forward to hearing more in the near future.📈

[@charlesdidonato5478]

Lance also doesn’t take into consideration the expanding Middle East war. This will also have a large impact and oil, gold and other commodities.

[@markphillips2648]

Agree

[@SS0895]

In theory yes, but markets seem generally uninterested in Middle East warfare. There’s enough conflict already happening there to justify a big commodity boom, yet all we hear is “priced in” over and over.

[@ronfesta771]

Me thinketh., I'm sure Lance of all people.......surely does!@!?😉

[@davidfraser1966]

It could change in a second. When and if it does, risk will change and markets will reprice instantly.

[@peterobrien62]

Buffet sold half of his Apple stock.

[@joechan8549]

Buffet selling his Bank of America stocks like crazy, that is his 2nd biggest holding. He is a smart guy , he KNOW SOMETHINGi

[@robdallen7267]

1/3 of Berkshire Hathaway in cash $277 billion . stock has a market cap of 925. Billion

[@darrenhere5856]

still his largest holding..

[@peterobrien62]

@@darrenhere5856 As of June 30 2024... He could have sold more since then (I'm not saying that he did, but it's possible).

[@jerrysteffy7900]

Lance apparently sold all of his.

[@ellaschris]

Always my favorite time of the week. Have a great weekend guys.!

[@joycekoch5746]

The job market number would be much worse if it was not the fact that so many people have started over the last two years gotten second jobs just to meet the cost of inflation.

[@bellakrinkle9381]

Now we have school, seasonal hiring to improve things. 😅

[@johnk1984]

Very good analysis and questions by Adam.The Nasdaq crashed 38% in 2022, and there was no recession. Stocks could easily crash 50% over the next year, given the longest and deepest yield curve inversion in history. Buffet and other smart money are heading for cash, gold and bonds.

[@johnfkeating]

Listen, I love lance but please don’t make us pull up quotes directly out of Adam’s videos where you are talking out of both sides of your mouth this is not the audience to bullshit or gaslight

[@NamLe-j2w]

For a rookie market participant like me, your interviews with Lance provides all the relevant information on technical, market sentiments and tactics that help me improve my actions, bit by bit, steadily and firmly. Thank you very much Adam, thank you very much Lance, you guys lift me to a new level 👏👏👏

[@4000angels]

This was an excellent interview as always. Thanks, Adam and Lance.

[@ivailoruikov5558]

Thanks, Lance and Adam. So so good analysis!

[@danksiny]

Adam, I totally appreciate your assessment of who your audience is. Again thank you for fighting on our behalf to clarify veiws presented here on Thoughtful Money. Aptly named and greatly appreciated.

[@maxentropy0305]

This episode with Lance is incredibly thoughtful and educational as always. Thanks Adam!

[@petergozinya6122]

Thank you Adam and Lance.

[@engineeringmustang]

Timely report Adam. I love this channel!

[@jameslee-dp6cb]

Have you guys recognized that more and more American companies are going bankrupt? The labor costs in the US just cant compete with foreign imports and the American worker cant afford a house or even a car. This stretch is driving laborers out of industry and even retail marketing. Less laborers buying means less demand for everything and when you couple this with the amount of businesses closing their doors means the economy is going to suffer this time much more than past recessions. I expect to see house building companies going bankrupt soon. They have been building for higher profits to offset their labor cost, but the consumer demand has already collapsed. This is apparent by the building inventory of houses at such a fast rate. A normal high default rate in housing of about 4% is not what we are experiencing. The foreclosure rate is 19% and climbing. People dont give up their homes unless something drastically has happened. It seems to me that the banking system have shot themselves in the foot by selling houses to Wall Street. Wall Street is volatile and this volatility has bled into the housing market which has driven prices far above affordability for workers. Its already been harder to hire for a while. Corporate investment hasnt helped the market. Rent was already too high for people who have lost their house because theyre old, retired, and many are sick. Therefore, the US is heading in the direction of homeless problems much like California has been experiencing in the past few years. As more and more people drop out of the system, prices have to get to the point of not being sustainable. We crossed that threshold before 2020, and it was evident by those who were complaining that they would never be able to afford a house. The sleeping giant has now awakened. Workers dont care if they work a full time job any longer because they cant afford a house and are even having trouble owning a car. I dont see how we can avoid a very bad downturn simply because of affordability.

[@1202-Alarm]

Personally I think sentiment is shifting in the economy. Within the past few weeks I have talked to realtors, contractors, furniture sales-managers, etc. They are seeing less traffic and less sales. Before, where I used to get one email sales-notice from online retailers per month, I am now seeing 2-5 per week. The online people are looking to drive traffic to their websites and hopefully garner some sales. I live in a hot real-estate area in central Florida. Homes that used to be snapped up in less than a week at a premium, are now on the market for months with prices being reduced. For the past 4-5 years in real-estate there was the buyer's FOMO mentality of getting into the market because prices would still be rising. Now, the sentiment has shifted. I think there is a FOMO mentality from the seller's perspective. Try to get out of real-estate for the best price they can before the market drops.

[@joechan8549]

Great observation, do not listen to those PUMP AND DUMP financial guru, , watching the real economy like the mall traffic, price, restaurant traffic are better than listen to those forever positive guys

[@dabomboo7o]

Mega perma bull. First rule is keep clients invested no matter what.. goes low buy, goes high buy.

[@joechan8549]

MONEY OUT, NO fees , that SIMPLE

[@showandtell4265]

Just contribute regularily to an etf.

[@jont96686]

A perma bull who predicts the market sell off will continue for another 2-3 months? Hmmm.

[@JohnJohnCrusher]

​@@jont96686but he said don't sell here? On Thursday with spy at 543? It's only off highs by a few percent. What, wait until it's dropped way more? Well Friday it did. But don't sell... Meh

[@bellakrinkle9381]

​@@jont96686 No, didn't he say it might not be that bad? heh

[@gigem7748]

The Nasdaq is down 11%, It's not a 5% correction anymore. Hedging works. Shorting works.

[@davidfraser1966]

It may well now become a buying opportunity. Friday was so brutal I expect a bounce tomorrow. My stocks are in profitable companies, some in bonds and 20% to scalp oversold solid stocks. Bought Carnival on Friday and will take 5% if and when it comes. Great show guys. Such wisdom - thanks 🙃

[@chrism5859]

@@davidfraser1966 some of my holdings bounced late today. PLTR paid off nicely in after hours trading. I no longer subscribe to a buy and hold strategy. I trade - 1-4 week holds. Working out well.

[@junglecat7263]

@@davidfraser1966 I bet your "hedges and shorts" ripped your face off as the NASDAQ recovered 5% in the past 4 days

[@bryanmorrow3146]

Lance is the quintessential stock broker; he talks down gold. So how about the fact that the gold price was $250 per oz. in 2000. Today? Say $2,450 - $2,500. And, he claims the miners are not a leveraged play on price. He's right if costs exceed price but other than that, the miners are a superb leveraged play on price. So, when Lance says, "That doesn't work either", he is wrong,..most of the time. Perhaps he should stick to stocks and bonds?

[@zacklewis342]

2000? That was a quarter century ago. Stocks have massively overperformed gold in that span.

[@Cos_Why_Not]

Love Lance! Great show again, as always.

[@dudewheresmyguitar21]

Maybe you shouldnt ask a money manager these questions whos job is to keep everyones money invested lol

[@Jalleur14325]

Personally I think it's time to be in cash - or hold onto property if you have it. In the 1970s the stock market went down by about 60%. Took over a decade I think to regain prices, and some never did. Personally I would be getting out of tech, and only having max 20% in the markets now, and allocate 15% to gold. Gold does have periods of stagnation, but over time it's never failed.

[@markphillips2648]

@@Jalleur14325 Yep & Yep !!!

[@LG-tw5vm]

​@@Jalleur14325Gold is a good idea, I agree with you there. However, what you have to look at is the number of businesses that went under in the 70's compared to the POSSIBILITY of a MUCH HIGHER number of businesses going under today. Today, you are looking at the possibility of 50% of all businesses going under. If that happens, unemployment will soar higher than the Great Depression. If this happens, home prices will crash to levels that are WAY UNDER fair value, simply because few people will be able to pay their mortgage/rent.

[@karenbkohn]

What I thought was interesting is that he said he sold into cash 2 weeks ago but then told us not to panic. 😮

[@JohnJohnCrusher]

​@@karenbkohnHe makes money by convincing others to do the wrong thing

[@robdallen7267]

People say PE ratios don’t matter until they do. These are the same people who paid 20% over MSRP for cars during Covid. The simple fact, a PE ratio of 17 times $255 is about 4300. 20 % will come off .

[@joechan8549]

Great analysis, when you buy over value stuff, when you lose money, Lance will NOT pay your LOSS for you. you are on your own.

[@felixkohler6114]

There is the Video i have been dying to See since wednesday. 😊

[@goldassayer93555]

Economic conditions are changing. We had government money printing which drove the stocks up to all time highs. But now the rising unemployment, stores closing and Japan raising their interest rate which stops the Japanese borrowing Yen to exchange for Dollars to buy US equities have combined to crash the stock buying. The next question is will there be more dominos falling to continue the stock market crash or will the Fed print a flood of money to stop the market crash?

[@Jalleur14325]

I was wondering that. I mean if the democrats want Harris to win they may need to prop up the markets.

[@tomkk1000]

Adam - thank you for bringing Lance to these sessions. I very much appreciate Lance's realistic analysis.

[@GarciaBS]

This guy is absolutely talking his base, which is to say, he still has his clients money in the markets. He can't afford to risk creating volatility by injecting fear among retail traders. He still needs us for exit liquidity. If the rally isn't dying now, it will certainly die shortly after the election. This is why the bond market has been rallying. Smart money is offsetting risk. Also, anyone who thinks gold isn't currency or a hedge against inflation is not worth taking seriously.

[@brucehecht4984]

You should add some context when stating it’s too late to sell and sit tight. If you are in retirement, have 529s that will be used in the next year, or will generally need funds, it’s definitely not too late. It’s prudent. If you don’t need the money for 3+ years, then I agree.

[@markaisenberg6641]

Lance last week: The market is oversold Lance this week: We’ve been expecting this pullback 😖

[@D5MDJM7738]

He goes with the flow

[@TheVimeo]

@@D5MDJM7738 all about the views, all about the noise. you can see how the champ said we are not there, and he still push his wording

[@alexkosztaczky4705]

Inconsistent, indeed.

[@malackaraj]

I love Lance, he always says two completely opposite things so confidently, it amazes me. Actually not true, he says at least 3-4 different, mutually exclusive things. Priceless! I still like the show.

[@denniskaye5026]

Gold was up some 1/1/21 to 1/1/22 and 1/1/22 to 1/1/23. Gold IS NOT just a commodity like oil and grains. This is the one area that I find Lance lacks knowledge in as I have found most financial advisors don't really understand this investment. Other than this area Lance is very good at most aspects of investing.

[@nav8888]

Please give a thumbs up if you want timestamps on these interviews 👍

[@jamesmurphy3263]

I love how Lance is so certain that we are not going to get a financial crisis. I bet he thought the same in 08

[@TheMountainBeyondTheWoods]

How do you know we will get one? It's perfectly possible we might, but we also might not, at least right now none of us can know for sure.

[@jamesmurphy3263]

@@TheMountainBeyondTheWoods I have no clue if we will get one or not. Neither does Lance. But he sure sounds like he knows for sure it won’t happen

[@TheMountainBeyondTheWoods]

@@jamesmurphy3263 I understand his point though, usually, every time we have a downturn in the market we always get the exact same arguments we're getting now about a coming crisis, and usually nothing happens, it's just another normal downturn. So sure, eventually we will have a financial crisis, and this actually might be it, but history tells us that it most likely won't be. I'm not defending this economy, administration, or labor market, which I think are complete disasters, but I'm always surprised how these things usually resolve themselves higher, not lower.

[@LG-tw5vm]

​@TheMountainBeyondTheWoods Well, it is going to be either one way or the other. We are either going to create hyperinflation, or we are going to have a sovereign debt crisis. It is going to be one or the other.

[@MrTigerStarX]

It's funny that this is one of Lance's strong suits: he's not constantly forecasting a depression like most of the KZbin marketeers.

[@vladimirmitchev6865]

Hi Adam, I love your show and it has been a tremendous assistance to my financial markets knowledge and personal financial management. However, you appear to be too much on the conservative/ bearish side longer term. I appreciate that but really enjoy Lance's analyses of the market, keeping things leveled. The market selloff this week imo is simply because it becomes clear that the Fed is late in cutting rates, they should have started cutting a few months ago, because the inflation is significantly below 3%, according to Truflation it is now at 1.65% and has been below 3% for almost 6 months, so the real rate is just too high, and it had to be lowered a few months ago. Thank you for your thoughtful and dedicated work to help people with improving their financial knowledge!

[@darrenhere5856]

totally agree. Adam is fiscally conservative and presents a great balance.

[@donmarek7001]

Inflation is below 3%? 😆Low interests rates were always the problem. 20 years ago or so, I could get 5% on a savings account.

[@kt6332]

Great interview. I recently found your channel and think it’s one of the better channels out there!

[@adam.taggart]

Glad you enjoy it!

[@meenagupta5822]

The whole week I wait for Saturday for you both to come online. You both are the best and not exaggerating one bit! Love this channel and Adam for everything he is providing. Also, If I want portfolio management under Lance, how should I do it? What's the minimum amount to start a portfolio management under him?

[@Jalleur14325]

Lance says not to panic sell, but also suggests there will be a slow grind lower to up to - 30%. In that case the rallies within that suggest that they will just be slightly lower each time, and therefore best to sell sooner rather than later, surely? A lot of companies that sold off in 2022 are still no where near their highs - Etsy, Shopify, Zoom, to name a few. Better to cut your losses and protect from further downside IMO.

[@ericabrams1244]

I wish I would’ve listened to Lance’s wise advice about an upcoming correction and taken some profits three weeks ago. Lance uses data to make his forecasts. Coupled with his vast experience I find his counsel to be excellent, and I have profited from that counsel. Ultimately, I am 100% responsible for the financial decisions I make. Thank you, Lance for the data you share and good work you do.

[@karlbork6039]

What's the over/under on how many times Lance says again?

[@ABQMAILMAN67]

16

[@AnneMarieBaiynd-TheTradingBook]

Definitely a catch phrase of his

[@Zoet50]

He just wrote an article on that

[@ABQMAILMAN67]

@@Zoet50 🤣😂

[@AnneMarieBaiynd-TheTradingBook]

Sometimes we just get caught in language cycle

[@MM-gw1iu]

31:32 Lance: “President Trump”

[@jerrysteffy7900]

When I think about this past week, I think back on the interviews conducted on this channel with Fred Hickey and Matt Peipenberg the 3rd week of June. I think that they, along with similar commentary in that timeframe from the New Harbor guys, could clearly see what was approaching on the horizon. We are going to find out exactly ‘ what is what’ between now and the end of the year. We will either be in the volatile throes of a 4th Turning, or massive liquidity will continue to support a softer landing. Probability wise, it’s more likely Peipenberg, Hickey , Oakley, Pento, Hussman et. al. --are correct. If so , even given some transient rallies ahead, the overall economic trajectory will not be good.

[@s.kennedy4650]

Lance. Let’s talk to the everyman/ woman here, not the investor. We are in a recession. The indicator has been the inverted yield curve, the month after month jobs revision-followed by the inevitable triggering of the Sahm Rule, and the housing inventory explosion. People should have been told since Q4 of 2023 to hunker down. Hold onto debt. Get liquid where you can. Asset prices are going to plummet. I predict interest rates approaching zero as this curve begins to uninvert- and it will be prolonged. Let’s stop calling it a “correction”.

[@michaelpetrus19]

I love passing on "negative discovery" it helps to give it value & serve a purpose............thanks.

[@alanalew]

This Friday program with Lance is the only TM interview I listen to on a regular basis. A welcome relief to the perma bear spam almost everywhere else. Thanks.

[@D5MDJM7738]

Well, you've been wasting your time. Lance never has anything new to say.

[@twarneke]

I really appreciate Thoughtful Money and watch or listen to every episode. Also really like to get Lance’s take on the markets in hist daily broadcast and his weekend appearances here. One suggestion to make Thoughtful Money even better and easier to produce: don’t insert the excerpt at the start of the show, just get on with the show.

[@denniskaye5026]

The 2/10 year DID NOT uninvert yet. The 2/30 DID uninvert on Friday.

[@FreeSpeech4All]

Correct!

[@johnmagenau2895]

GOOD SHOW, FYI FROM TODAY. The Data Triggered the ‘Sahm Rule.’ Even Sahm Doesn’t Think There’s a Recession. BARRONS.

[@JamesBlazen]

Interest rates have plunged and that puts a huge bid under asset prices. This economy isn't going down without a fight.

[@merkaba555]

Strong work as always.

[@Rocky-wz6co]

Lance is a highly competent trader and market-reader, but follow his macro takes at your own risk.

[@Jalleur14325]

Yes. Generally traders share their "secrets" for their own interests - to boost the share price "pump and dump" type stuff. I don't see Lance as a devoid of ethics, but ultimately he is there to sell product.

[@joechan8549]

Very huge risk

[@joechan8549]

@@Jalleur14325 He have to make money , he will protect his own interest FIRST, NOT THE CLIENT INTEREST FIRST

[@joechan8549]

Best thing is look at the History, when Federal cut interest, recession already here, check HISTORY, do not trust those self appointed Finance Guru, it is your own money,

[@Bryangsu]

Thank you both!

[@mattanderson6672]

I cannot thank you both enough, for all the knowledge and wisdom you impart to us You keep me sane and you have helped educate me financially I will always owe you both Thanks Lance and Adam

[@richardchapman-u1d]

lance is a muppet, his investors will be down 40pc soon just like the 2022 meltdown he completely missed, gotta keep the money invested or no AUM fees, i bet he earns less than a maccy d manager.

[@bellakrinkle9381]

It seems to me that he covered all possible scenarios. Is this good advice?

[@MonetaryRebel]

Gold went down just like everything else because funds need cash to close their margin positions. Precious metals drop hard with stocks because of this Every Time. It's all because funds need cash, and gold gets sold. This goes for banks as well except banks go into treasuries because that is cash to them, hence the massive buy up in bonds. Recession is here.

[@pwatom22]

Very interesting discussion around valuations starting ~1 hour mark. Excellent content as always! BTW.. i don't watch this because i like train wreck perma bears. I watch it because I think Lance and Adam provide quality analysis. I struggle a little with your perspective on choosing friends... Personally, I find friendships more organic than that, shared interests etc. financial success is certainly not a conscious factor.

[@paxamdg2712]

Great interview as always men!

[@EvanVallie]

I agree with Adam about the risk of AI. Lance uses bitcoin as an example, but compare that chart with Nvidia chart. Lance claims were early on AI and Bitcoin hasn’t done much 10 years. To think AI stocks can’t as volatile would be how you get caught in momentum trading.

[@L4NER619]

Lance “Buy the Dip” Roberts

[@MichaelHarrington17]

How significant can the Sahm Rule be if we've all decided labor market numbers are unreliable?

[@jmcmob608]

Thank you very much...

[@carjames3091]

Great work!! Thank you 🙏

[@giantessmaria]

i guess Lance forgot what happened to Facebook, Tesla, Nvidia, Apple Google and Amazon in 2022. the first 3 literally lost 1/2-to 3/4ths of their value in a years time... people viewing these mega caps as bulletproof have a short memory.

[@ALF-wh6in]

Why do central banks own gold if it is not currency? Central banks don't buy coco, wheat or copper, and BIS doesn't net settle in COCO.

[@Jalleur14325]

It doesn't go off

[@MonetaryRebel]

@ALF-wh6in do you purchase goods and services with gold? If you do, it's a currency. For most institutions, like the federal reserve and hedge funds, which do not purchase goods and services, it is a reserve. If you think the monetary system is doomed and the world is going to collapse, buy some gold and silver sure, but you better have bullets too. If we get into a situation where the system breaks down and gold and silver are being used as currencies, someone will come knock on your door and just take it if you can't defend it...

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Stagflation is slowing unfolding - the Fed's only real option given the fiscal dominance.

[@mcckelly1]

Great discussion as usual! ❤

[@user-yy6jo8ob7g]

I'm really disappointed with you guys. At 1:17:30, Lance mentions that he sold on 7/13 all mega-cap stocks. However, in your past weekly videos, especially you even have "What Trades Did Lance Make" section, he never mentioned this. I'll take back my comments if anyone can prove otherwise, but he never shared this information. Lance, It seems like you're either trying to gain subscribers with subpar financial advice or you're being dishonest. Either way, it's not a good look. Adam, I respect you and your honest service, but this is frustrating. Anyway, it's a free video, and I understand the disclaimer that you're not responsible, blah blah blah.

[@azuDemagen]

Seeing a lot of negativity in the comments about the positioning play. We did get a rapid bounce on 31.07 that could been used as a sell opportunity on minimal or no loss, even if you invested late in the game. I didn't take it and feel foolish for it. We will get another and there you can regain the losses by positioning to the downside. Lance is giving good advice.

[@JJ-ji4kn]

I see a lot of negative comments below. Remember that your own personal, local observations are not a good prediction of the stock market direction. There is always some bad shit happening somewhere in bull markets and when we look back in a few years maybe the market did it's typical one step backwards and two or three steps forward, grinding higher to new highs?

[@MIDNIGHT_ANGEL278]

Lol this permabull Lance guy is *finally* starting to admit that things aren't perfect. Maybe when the markets completely bottom out he'll say we are in recession?

[@stevencanal4178]

"A steady dime is better than a seldom dollar." (Richard Ney)

[@kenhansen8186]

AI does not have a near term revenue stream for companies to recover their huge investments in AI chips. Just a hope for future growth in revenues that may not materialize.

[@jacobseidelman9070]

Thanks!

[@Peter-MH]

Feels bad, but then look at a Dow 1 year chart, and it looks like nothing 😂

[@christophertanger2379]

Now look at the 10year chart and see how far we will fall.

[@stevencanal4178]

One year ago there was not a recession

[@andrewsnyder9262]

@@christophertanger2379you think we are gonna fall to the levels we had at half the money supply?

[@renesanchez270]

Look at the yield curve and the Sahm rule and then say it's no big deal...

[@ricklange7465]

It looks like 6%

[@fabiang46]

You rock! Fantastic video!

[@drajdew1664]

How wpuld apple make money during recession? Or Microsoft ?

[@peterobrien62]

Investor's Business Daily is reporting a design flaw in Nvidia's next chip... That will also hurt the S&P500 on Monday, in addition to Buffett selling half of his Apple stock.

[@solskengroupllp2758]

Lance's legs are blown off but he'd say, "It's just a scratch, it's nothing."

[@pweb4941]

I think we should be concerned about the reversal of the yen carry trade. That's over 20 trillion that needs to be unwinding,and us force selling a lot of USD assets

[@Bruno-sy3zv]

Low return environment, sideway markets are my favorite. Bring it.

[@gdurant]

Guys, cut the bull. We and the world have been in stagnation and inflation at the same time which is the classic Jimmy Carter move called stagflation for 3 years now.

[@happychappy7115]

Im thinking Lance is right when he says market oversold, bonds overbought😊 Massive liquidity in the system yet