How Luck Works In Advance Wars

[@michaela2634]

Luck in Advance Wars, unlike Fire Emblem, is the best stat.

[@megarotom1590]

In addition, fun fact: In most persona games, Luck is eh, but in Persona Q it's absolutely busted.

[@fireemblemaddict128]

Luck is vital to not getting crit so I still think it's up there, depending on which game and what luck influences in that game.

[@lystic9392]

@@fireemblemaddict128 You remind me I own a Fire Emblem game for GBA I think that will kill you in the intro mission. I think it uses some random seed to determine crits or something and the first enemy will always crit and kill the protagonist.

[@megarotom1590]

@@fireemblemaddict128 If your talking fire emblem (which I assume you are by the talking about crit) 5 points in a stat is a pretty large difference and yet 5 points in luck is like 5% lower chance of getting crit (assuming you had a 5+% of getting crit in the first place which isn't super likely). Opposed to skill which increases both your chance to hit others by 5 and chances to crit others by 5. Or speed which increases your evasion by 5 which significantly increases the chances of doubling and decreases the chances of getting doubled. Str/Mag increases damage you deal by 5 per hit and Def/Res decrease damage you get dealt by 5 per hit.

[@doubledownpleasegosubtotte4274]

Back to war

[@mauricesteel4995]

I knew Nell was better than Flak, but its way more lopsided than i tought it was. Flak truly is the earlygame Axe Brigand Boss. That also brings to light how Nell is way more consisten than she looks, you dont use her power to win impossible odds, you use her to aqueese some bullshit wins that you normally couldn't get.

[@MFDoomguy21]

Acquiesce? Or Acquire?

[@butteredsalmonella]

I mean Flak is the tutorial boss (being the Orange Star section) whereas Nell is like a secret endgame character alongside Hachi, there's a reason they're unusable in the Main Campaign, except Dual Strike Hard Mode.

[@mauricesteel4995]

@@MFDoomguy21 i meant to say cheese but, you know, mobile devices.

[@RadioTails]

The game makes it sound like Flak can deal way more luck, while having negative luck. So you think Nell's Luck would be less, when it fact, it's higher than Flak's with no negative luck!

[@bentowers3614]

Flak is pretty balanced as a result, imo. Yeah, his average increases are small, but the lopsided values ensure he usually will strike with extra damage. Luck is really strong, and Flak makes it feel more fair than, say, Nell does. I still take games off of my friends (who aren't a slouch) with Flak. He just isn't as reliable as a clearly incredibly strong CO only unlocked by basically entirely completing the game.

[@ShrimpRice]

As man once said, Luck is the best stat.

[@Blizz3112]

it can also be the worst stat, if it actually goes below the average (like some commanders can have)... :-P

[@mauricesteel4995]

Luck is that stat that you dont pay mind until you find either someone witha boatload of it or a poor sod who has none(hi Arthur).

[@Saixjacket]

Luck is the greatest stat in gaming history, because it is the only force in gaming that has “the game” truly in its best interest. Games aren’t games without luck.

[@CD-vb9fi]

@@Saixjacket While it is possible for you to be correct about luck being the greatest stat in gaming history, you are not correct about the other two claims. Luck has ruined many games and Chess is a game without luck. I wonder how successful you will be at convicing the world that Chess, Checkers, Go, & Shogi for example, are not games. In general, I view gate keeping as a sign that someone's opinion should not to be considered. Luck as a mechanic can make or break a game and too many people put luck into a game with very little thought as to how it should affect the game world. Take a very old game such as the Original X-COM UFO Defense... weapon accuracy would sometimes go wild based on luck... so wild that a player would question the idea that your soldiers are anything but fresh out of diapers, first time holding a weapon, recruit. It stands as a great example of how much luck can affect a game, ruining it for some and improving it for others. People that desire to play games where skill, expertise, and/or talent are focused on, find that luck in games often rob them of their efforts... especially when luck as a mechanic is not well thought out or is poorly implemented. In real life, there is actually no such thing as luck because everything is all down to cause and effect to the point that there is a field of mathematics for it. Luck is just a euphemism for something that is too complex for a human to reasonably calculate the totality of a something or a subject resulting in them making a decision with incomplete information. Luck in games is intended to replicate that concept without dragging in all the mechanics necessary to simulate a perception of luck, which is why poor implementation makes the game immersion breaking for those that understand mechanics to a certain degree.

[@skeletonmadruga9387]

@@CD-vb9fi Holy- that's a wall of text

[@CassidyListon]

Let's be real, the TRUE luck is in all of us, for finally getting Nintendo to acknowledge Advance Wars.

[@NG480]

Nintendo really does mean "Leave Luck to heaven" after all.

[@squallleonhart9387]

I will be supporting Advance Wars as a day 1 purchase on Switch

[@Unformed8]

Hear, hear!

[@Capris9x]

Luck +2000% for AW fans

[@bon7029]

@@squallleonhart9387 Same. I also hope it sells enough for them to redo Dual Strike and Days of Ruin, and/or give us an all new series

[@newcheesegrater]

Here's something worth making a Short over: The Defense Stat. In Advance Wars, it's obvious Defense increases in terrain. But I've noticed that as the defending unit's HP gets lower, not only does its firepower, but also its defense. I'd like to see this explored more.

[@Butitdo910]

Yeah this is great idea 💡

[@michael_betts]

@@KeitaroHirochi that only works for full health units. The defence multiplier is (200-co defence - terrain*hp)/100 , since HQ/mountain has 4 stars you need full health to be truly invincible. This is also why lower health units have lower defence in most cases, although if you try it on 0 star terrain you'll find defence doesn't decrease with damage.

[@Heinrich_Hein]

free money content is good

[@KopperNeoman]

@Michael Betts An easier way to say that is that one Cover star gives you HP% Defence, rather than 10%.

[@769_tYu]

Nell: Lucky is everthing Colin: Hold my money

[@Terensworth]

That... was actually not as complex as I expected, cool to know though. I also love how in AW2 Sonja's Bad Luck and Good Luck are equal, so she's unlikely to be affected by luck at all, which makes sense, because Sonja is the logical type and doesn't care for unpredictable fantastical things like luck. Which means Nell probably causes Sonja to have a mental breakdown on a daily basis.

[@Saiavinn]

".... Did... did those infantry just take out one of my Neo-tank units!? HOW!? THAT'S LITERALLY IMPOSSIBLE!" "Guess I'm just that lucky!~"

[@Sines314]

It's even better than that for Sonja. Since she rolls twice, she rolls on a bell curve, rather than a flat line. She does have luck, and may do more or less damage... but she's actually more likely to roll +0% than every other CO, since it has the most die roll combinations that can result in it. That makes her actually very consistent. Granted, when everyone else has the same consistency to deal the 10s digit in damage and then maybe more, it's not the best kind of consistent. But it's still a nice touch.

[@kaedegrv]

@@Sines314 She could have like 5% fixed luck damage and that would be even better 🤣

[@Bethany38326]

Playing as a CO cause they have good skills and fit your play style? 🙅🙅 Playing as a CO because she has a pretty dress? 👍👍

[@Hone_mor2525]

Play a CO because she is heckin' cute and valid? 👍👍👍

[@OatmealTheCrazy]

Mood

[@tenchimuyo69]

Sasha it is.

[@kidjames6875]

I chose the first.

[@user-ov2kx8ql5i]

I like the Luck mechanic.

[@The_Big_Jay]

I feel like bad luck should be calculated differently if the CO also has good luck. For example, 10 good luck combined with 15 bad luck. The game would roll a number between 0 and 25, with 0 being maximum bad luck. And number between 0 and 15 give you a bad luck decrease, with the closer you get to 15 the smaller the decrease becomes. Numbers between 16 and 25 would give you a good luck bonus, with 16 being the lowest, and 25 giving the highest bonus. If it used this system, CO's with both good and bad luck are treated more as a risky play, giving you the chance to have more luck per attack than usual at the cost of the occasional bad roll, instead of 2 rolls that cancel each other out and giving the character less overall luck.

[@Mangs1337]

This is how I thought the game did it for years, until I started delving deep into Advance Wars messageboards and found posts made by people who datamined the game. I actually never knew just how bad Flak was until I made this video.

[@rhettorical]

@@Mangs1337 I've had many experiences with Flak using his Super and proceeding to do dick for damage so I've always considered him absolute trash.

[@MFG1243]

@@rhettorical Yeah, he's pretty Flakluster

[@Quintingent]

They'd still be 'cancelling each other out and giving the character less overall lac' though. The only thing that would change would be the variance. As it stands the results do cluster around the averages, which given said averages are low for bad luck characters is not good. Though I haven't actually run the numbers. I'd be interested to know what the luck range is where Flak is more likely to get the extreme good luck than a standard CO, since it definitely exists

[@The_Big_Jay]

@@Quintingent No. My method would give you a higher chance to achieve maximum luck as it is a singular 1 out of 25 roll as opposed to 2 separate rolls that require you to get 1 out of 10 and a 1 out of 15. The math to get both rolls optimal isn't the same as 1 out of 25.

[@royalghost4914]

Feels so good to see advance wars rise again from its grave

[@Tryforlive.]

I'm so happy Advanced Wars is back

[@nvrmltice]

Now we have both Lady Luck (Nell) and Ultimate Luck (Nagito Komaeda) on the Nintendo Switch

[@a-s-greig]

Super High School Level Commanding Officer. 😆

[@Istreakilaz]

More like Ultimate Cutie and the Ultimate Schemer. Need i bring out the Chapter 5 Trial hammer?

[@Istreakilaz]

Then there's the whole UDG Story Arc... While Nell only grows in waifu material (and ridiculousity) over time. And i'm not even mentioning the arse-pull that the DR3 Anime, Hope Ep was.....

[@MrMarket1987]

Flak is a poor man's Nel in every way except one: Kickass theme! Worth the pick just for that.

[@theolanderdilag3872]

So basically before the events of AW2, it's Flak vs Nell, a.k.a. The Luck battle galore where Black Hole and Red Star troops have grenades that can one-shot people lying around in the corner

[@zxKAOS1]

Nah, I still like Nell's theme the best

[@Albortomagico]

Thanks Mangs for making all these videos that would've been helpful to me 3 years ago

[@ScrambledAndBenedict]

I always liked luck in these games, since it's like the old army saying "no plan survives first contact." It just creates that little chance for things to go awry and force you to think on your toes, but never to the point that it's likely to completely scupper your strategy.

[@bobmonkey420]

This was a great video, you should do a breakdown of each faction and their COs for the first two games, namely.the lore, what each CO powers are, what type of style each CO should do on a standard game, and possible counterplay. Can't wait to see more Advance Wars content!

[@MrRaui]

I think it would be interesting if we had a CO whose power forced bad luck on all opponents

[@PsychadelicoDuck]

Give it to Flak?

[@zxKAOS1]

@@PsychadelicoDuck It feels like he has a dark cloud that just follows him.

[@CamAlert2]

So basically a defensive version of luck. very interesting

[@squiddler7731]

The luck mechanic actually makes a lot of sense when you explain it that way. When it's a range from 0 to 10, all it means is that units dealing damage in increments less than 10 will have a chance of that damage rounding up by one, which is exactly what you'd expect when you see that a unit deals 55% damage

[@KopperNeoman]

That, however, is not how it works. Advance Wars almost-but-not-quite (there ARE some strange edge cases) works off of a percentile system for health, with HP being decremented by one for every 10%. HP is used for attack and terrain defence calculations (and CO defence buffs in Dark Conflict) but is calculated via the unit's health, rather than representing it.

[@bilib1891]

Ever opened your eyes and saw that there is a fucking healthbar not always stopping at multiples of 1/10?

[@squiddler7731]

@@bilib1891 No. I hadn't actually played advance wars myself before (just commented cause I found these videos interesting) so I missed that. My bad for being ignorant I guess, but I feel like that's a pretty easy thing to overlook.

[@bilib1891]

@@squiddler7731 Mkay, assumed from your comment you had played it a few times.

[@samurguy9906]

“Luck is one of the most convoluted mechanics in advanced wars” Idk, a 1-10% bonus to damage seems pretty simple to me

[@maryrosetran5109]

Indeed. But to be fair he did say "the series' most convulated".

[@samurguy9906]

@@maryrosetran5109 I feel like defense is a better fit for that.

[@Sines314]

Agreed. Back in the early days, when deep diving into a games actual code wasn't a practical option (I'm sure it could be done, but most guides were written by the mostly young fanbase), we pretty much got this right. The reigning theory was that 76% damage meant that you would deal 7 damage, with a 60% chance to deal +1 damage. This left off the HP and Defense multiplier, but unless you were attempting to kill a 1 HP Neotank off of a city with an Infantry, the distinction was adequate. Most cases where the distinction would be valuable were already either desperation tactics, or "Might as well" tactics wherein failure was expected, so people didn't think too much about it. Honestly, the biggest problem was that Flak was made to sound like he had very swingy damage, but had the potential to do more than Nell. Turns out he doesn't, and is just flat-up worse Nell. Hell, the fact that he makes two die rolls to determine his luck result actually REDUCES his swinginess, making him more likely to hit his average of +5% damage than non-Luck COs have to hit the same average value, since he rolls on a bell curve, while all other COs roll on a flat line. So you can't even really try to play a massive swing in your favor.

[@freshrockpapa-e7799]

@@Sines314 Not a bell curve, a triangle distribution actually

[@anonyme4881]

Oh Luck, the stats that can make a CO trash or god tier by ITSELF

[@HanakkoLove]

Goddess Icon: *Finally, my time to shine!*

[@johnlogan2396]

"luck effects every single encounter you engage in" *laughs in my 180% damage, kanbei SCOP neotanks during war room missions*

[@WellBattle6]

So essentially luck is basically Crit damage.

[@uandresbrito5685]

It is.

[@IIxIxIv]

it's more like the damage rolls one pokemon attacks

[@clownplayer7265]

"Random crits are fair and balanced". -Nell probably.

[@blazingkite8983]

generally the luck is made to make or break the middle value between multipliers of 10 aka anything between 1 to 9 so it's less a critical thing and more so to balance out the non-linear values like, every value of 10 is 1 HP which is very straightforward, but the values in between aren't so much linear so the luck is there to help sort that out but also to add some spice to the game and not make it so linearly predictable bad luck is just straight up devs messing around but for the case of Nell, yeah you can consider it a critical hit.

[@Jokerecho3540]

Personally, I like that a series of the same inputs in a game won't necessarily have the same result. There are other games where something like this absolutely wouldn't fit in those respective games, but in AW where balance is already screwy, I believe in makes a welcome fit.

[@darkghoul4049]

Luck is a good mechanic. Reduces the predictablity...

[@crisis8v88]

"I am Nell, Destroyer of Worlds." ~ Nell, Advance Wars (probably)

[@GreyWolfLeaderTW]

I'm quite certain that luck damage (as well as general damage calculations) was changed in Days of Ruin. In the earlier Advance Wars games, there's always a chance that a unit, particularly a weakened unit or one with a weakness against the unit type attacking them could do next to or even zero damage in counterattacks after nearly getting wiped out. So, an infantry reduced to 2 HP would sometimes not even do 1-2% damage in return to a lance of tanks from AW 1 to Dual Strike. It appears to have been changed in Days of Ruin to completely remove bad luck, so that a unit will always at least do what their stated damage percentage infliction rate says. This becomes most noticeable with tanks and recons attacking other machine gun armed units like infantry, recons, tanks (either out of ammo or shooting at copters), or mechs (out of bazooka ammo or shooting at battle copters), over multiple turns. They're guaranteed to take enough counterattack damage to lose at least one hit point after two to three turns of mauling squads of infantry. Chip damage is a much bigger issue in Days of Ruin, and especially for battle copters. The single-player/war room AI is much more likely to throw multiple units of tanks and recons at a battle copter even if the first few attackers get decimated, since they're guaranteed to at least do around 15% damage or so on the first strike. This was typically a bad idea in the earlier games because the tanks and recons could wiff and do as little as 5% damage even at full health to the copters.

[@joaocbcneto]

Luck lets you not be punished.

[@cameronballz6154]

Unless you're Flak

[@KenY2KenTV]

I've always enjoyed AW , but I'd never really looked into the mechanics in depth before now. I feel like even this one video has made me understand the game's combat systems way more clearly. I had a reasonable comprehension of the fact damage was slightly randomised, but knowing how it actually works is super helpful! Thanks for the great video, definitely subbed for more.

[@Hone_mor2525]

Mangs, if you make an Advance Wars guide for Fire Emblem fans, I'll start playing it.

[@ShrimpRice]

I second this, More advance wars content sounds pretty kickass.

[@Mangs1337]

Deal!

[@Hone_mor2525]

@@Mangs1337 Based

[@KaiUnderscore]

@@Mangs1337 Sounds like a good video for people not familiar with AW.

[@fenomozo9108]

I want a Fire Emblem guide for Advance Wars players.

[@dragonexer1]

I feel like the takeaway from this is that Nell's powers allow you to get way more value out of low cost units. Being able to send a few infantry to take out a neotank is a huge value swing in your favor so long as you can produce enough of them. I assume this also makes Nell exponentially better the more bases there are on a map?

[@hadoukenfighter]

Mangs would be an expert in how luck works. great vid.

[@SaturnineXTS]

Whoaaa, no way there's a reboot coming! Guess I know what Switch game to buy next lol! Those animations are gorgeous too, absolutely stunning

[@Sephiroth08150]

Someone told me that Sonja's bad luck is in character for her, since she plans for her battles more than any other CO. As such, she doesn't account for her units not doing as much damage as she predicted they would.

[@stefenboney7145]

That make sense, she's playing more of a game of chess than AW

[@riluna3695]

Oh wow. I really like that interpretation. It even makes sense that her bad luck stat decreases every game she's in. She's a wicked fast learner, and with genuine battles under her belt, she's learning to account for these sorts of things as well. As opposed to Colin, who fought and lived through an entire war and still gets a firepower decrease for being "inexperienced" :P

[@a-s-greig]

@@riluna3695 I choose to interpret that as him not having much experience in inspiring confidence, not so much being a first-time officer. Though again, he _is_ the youngest of the bunch...

[@bongcloudopening5404]

@@riluna3695 i dont think colin has the firepower decrease because of his "inexperienced" Its probably because his troops are just lower quality than everyone else, because you know 20% cheaper

[@riluna3695]

@@bongcloudopening5404 That makes really good sense. It's a shame the creators of the game didn't realize. Even in Dual Strike his bio reads "Troops' low firepower stems from his lack of experience." I like your answer better, although it does beg the question of why someone who has so much money feels the need to buy units on the cheap to begin with. Colin gets everything at a discount, Sasha gets more money day-to-day...these have nothing to do with them being inherently rich, just incredibly frugal. If you want my conspiracy theory, I think the fact that these two have these powers is WHY they're rich, not the other way around. CO Powers are pretty much definitively magical in nature, so Gold Rush and War Bonds seemingly create money out of nothing. Give their parents similar skills and you have a recipe for your "heir to a vast fortune".

[@bernizubi5217]

It's no surprise Nell is Mangs' waifu.

[@a-s-greig]

It's a surprise to those of us who thought it was Sami.

[@submarinewahoo238]

You would have thought that Flak would have more luck than Nell to make him less predictable at rolling crazy damage, lining up with his personality, but wow. I can't believe those numbers got through the game balance crew.

[@OatmealTheCrazy]

Because the game largely wasn't meant to be balanced

[@holden3808]

Flak was meant to be a bad CO from the start, so it makes sense. His personality and description don't exactly paint him as a competent commander.

[@dethkid7]

3:22 i fucking spat out my coffee seeing infantry wiping out NeoTanks

[@a-s-greig]

Am I the only one who remembers Power of Money? 🥲

[@Greymage55]

This was really nice. I think a video explaining how the CO meter works would be great, too

[@rewrose2838]

Man I'm glad for this series, so I won't talk about how the units look 😂

[@mattevans4377]

As someone who's suffers from bad luck playing video games, I think I'll luck elsewhere.

[@doesntmatter6736]

Colin's power deserves an explanation...

[@Teknanam]

His current amount of money is multiplied by 1.5 His Super power uses every 1000 funds to add 3.33% to his attack power.

[@doesntmatter6736]

All that is left to explain is what determines the ability of some damaged weak units to otk strong units while others can not and differences between aw2 and ds.

[@youngnigar525]

Finally I get to learn what it is

[@soulhoney1227]

Teacher mangs explain a mechanic to even people who are into the game don't know

[@Hone_mor2525]

We should call him Professor Egghead That would be funny, I think.

[@royalghost4914]

@@Hone_mor2525 😂

[@IDESTROYER236]

I second this @@Hone_mor2525

[@soulhoney1227]

@@Hone_mor2525 hone mor did you know about the blizzard scandal

[@Hone_mor2525]

@@soulhoney1227 Nope. Which one?

[@jacobcapistrano6731]

Luck makes the experience varied and makes CO's like Nell fun to use and Sonja and Flak interesting to fight against

[@Teknanam]

AI Flak is different from a human since AI already knows what luck it will have on an exchange before it attacks. So it will avoid attacking on bad luck rolls, meaning you only get hit with avg and good luck attacks.

[@Neonlight3934]

Me: How much Advance War content are you going to do? Manga: YES!!!

[@cbbblue8348]

Everybody gangsta until we get Devil Tank in advance war

[@IDESTROYER236]

Devil Submarine gang.

[@bossman4799]

I’m so excited for the reboots and I really don’t know about this stuff in the games. I hope you make some even more videos about AW.

[@dpsiduck7832]

Nice video Mangs, I think you did a good job explaining Flak's middle-dominated (trapezoidal) distribution-- I was hoping you'd mention it! Another important mechanic you might want to cover is the importance of how defense scales. In particular, that +10 offense vs +10 defense favors the defender, and that 200 defense results in zero damage. You might also want to cover COP charging, and how you get twice as many power points for taking hits rather than dishing hits out. Also the useful point that you don't charge your power when it's active.

[@monkeman5895]

Advance Wars subreddit can cope and seethe at the fact that you’re quite literally the no.1 AW KZbinr

[@mannam9468]

Why do they not like him?

[@Butitdo910]

He’s the only one I see putting in the work to help out players. So, as far as I am concerned, any chairforce redditors shouting into void are doing what they normally do - nothing.

[@akiradkcn]

@@mannam9468 my guess is because someone popular dislile mangs, most redditors are very prone to "herd mentality"

[@jeffreychinn609]

@@mannam9468 same reason the Fire Emblem subreddit doesn’t associate with him anymore

[@KopperNeoman]

Because a pronouns went "hurr durr I'm going to post evidence your favourite egg isn't a creep then call him a creep" If he was a creep, these people would shun HER.

[@ShrimpRice]

A yes, the LUCK mechanic. A good time to talk about the blondey best girl.

[@crowhaveninc.2103]

I was hoping Mangs would explain what an airport is, but it seems like I wasn't lucky enough for that...

[@RadioTails]

An airport is where sea units are built! :P

[@crowhaveninc.2103]

@@RadioTails Were the Sea units the ones that go on land?

[@clownplayer7265]

I think Nell is the queen of bullshitting your opponent in Advance Wars.

[@masterdummy8150]

The addition of luck is just a lot of fun in my opinion. It adds a sense of gambling in an otherwise pretty rigid strategy game. I don't know how I feel about it being hidden, but whether or not it's taught doesn't matter nearly as much as whether or not it's there. I just find the whole idea of playing around on the battlefield funny.

[@EngorgedBanana]

I really like how little luck impacts day-to-day offense but can really tip the scales when thinking tactically; like when dealing with 1hp transports and units. It makes the power dynamic consistent but the tactical play tricky, challenging players to tactically improvise but keeping the match overall balanced. COs that implement luck, like Nell and Flak, are good concepts that allow matches a bit of flavor. Though, it's understandable to remove these COs when trying to measure overall player skill.

[@MisterVercetti]

A "simple" mathematical formula for calculating luck: a = base damage, h = unit health %, m = firepower modifier, l = luck roll, b = bad luck roll, d = target defense % Total damage = (a * h * m + l * h - b * h) * (1 - d), round down to nearest whole For COs with negative luck, So, for example, a Max tank in AW2 at 9 HP attacks a full health Andy tank in a forest. How do we determine the expected damage range? Minimum damage = (55 * .9 * 1.2 + .9 * 0) * (1 - .2) = 59.4 * .8 = 47.52, round down to 47 Maximum damage = (55 * .9 * 1.2 + .9 * 9) * (1 - .2) = (59.4 + 8.1) * .8 = 67.5 * .8 = 54 even Therefore, the expected damage range for this encounter is 47% - 54% Now let's take the same scenario, except it's a 9 HP AW2 Sonja tank doing the attacking: Minimum damage: (55 * .9 * 1 + .9 * 0 - .9 * 9) * (1 - .2) = (49.5 + 0 - 8.1) * .8 = 41.4 * .8 = 33.12, round down to 33 Maximum damage: (55 * .9 * 1 + .9 * 9 - .9 * 0) * (1 - .2) = (49.5 + 8.1 - 0) * .8 = 57.6 * .8 = 46.08, round down to 46 Therefore, Sonja's expected damage range is 33-46. Interestingly, because her base damage without any luck is 39, Sonja is still more likely to benefit from good luck than to suffer from bad luck, albeit ever so slightly.

[@twikie258]

Thanks for your hard work Mangs. Can't wait to see your new AW playthrough xx

[@edgelord8337]

Let's watch Nell and Strum get banned from tournaments if there's online battles. Nell players are only gonna do infantry spam.

[@chrisjohnson1146]

Eh... Nell's firepower without luck is about equal to Andy I think. I doubt anyone would rely on luck and Infantry alone to win. Yea its a chance to deal extra damage, but only relying on that burst damage alone with infantry? You're asking to be steamrolled by AA and tanks. Besides... that luck applies to all of Nell's units so normal tactics will work. Honestly I'd be more scared of a Sami Mech Rush than Nell Infantry Dice Roll. Especiall if its AW2 and Dual Strike Sami. Victory March in range of any properties... especially an HQ... The ulitmate FU would be a 1 HP Infantry or Mech capping your HQ.

[@MrMarket1987]

Recon units alone would likely be a hard counter, and they're inexpensive. Nell's luck isn't so good as to overcome their spawning rate if the opponent has a good grasp of their funding, and their high movement makes them much more likely to hit you before you hit them.

[@wannabecinnabon]

@@chrisjohnson1146 Infantry are units that most COs still build a lot of no matter what, since they win capture wars, and economy means everything in AW. Nell can get away with deploying more infantry for longer since, *in addition* to their existing utility, can also be reused later on to deal huge damage with her CO or SCO power. Nell's firepower without luck is entirely irrelevant, because she *does* have luck, and it *does* mean she deals, on average, half a point more damage in every single combat encounter than other COs. One goes through so many fights in a given game that the total number of extra damage she's dealt will almost always be around her average. Her D2D is closer to Hawke than it is to Andy, as a result.

[@KopperNeoman]

Nell's "kill you if you have 0 defence" can only happen in SCOP. She isn't played that way, you play her like she isn't lucky, and occasionally throw out BS moves with disposable units.

[@chrisjohnson1146]

@@wannabecinnabon While I haven't really played for quite a while, I am a veteran of AW2 and Dual Strike. Liked them over Days of Ruin. I think I would classify myself as more of a Sami main though, but with experience with just about everyone. I personally feel Nell is still relatively balanced damage wise. Her luck does mean she can have some pretty wicked burst, but... you can't trigger it, so you can't really predict when it will happen to capitalize on. With her CO or SCO active you can get more reckless and expect to come out on top, but overall... I'd still play normal and be happy when I do more damage than expected. Now... Hachi/Colin combo = spam wars.

[@argonbox74]

Nice was waiting for this ! 💪

[@xander__yalnif9214]

Next thing you know there's gonna be a Mysterious Stranger that randomly appears based on luck to help you out

[@outcastzero6923]

I think luck is good for the game, but I don't understand why nerf Sonja with "bad luck", she was not OP to begin with.

[@MrPuffer69]

I think the point is Sonja is all about strategy and calculations in stark contrast to her father. She's and INTJ by MBTI standards if you will so i think it's less "bad luck" and more so to represent she doesn't like to rely on luck to begin with.

[@PALWolfOS]

It’s probably a character thing - to imply that despite being an intel champ, Sonja isn’t the best at handling direct engagements To contrast with Kanbei’s lack of strategy but amazing ability to inspire his troops through raw charisma

[@estrum1647]

sonja has +1 in fog, better counters and hide the hp units. that's 3 good things unlike hawke who only has 10% power

[@maxspecs]

RNGesus laughs at the best laid plans.

[@UltimaDoombotMK1]

@@maxspecs Yup. Epic plan to use in a game, any game, go for it, but whoops you hit 3 hp too low for no reason, your enemy is still alive and proceeds to score a crit and murk you

[@nahtatrolI]

Luck is a part of skill

[@rotciv557]

Pretty sure the quote is "Luck is only half skill"

[@butteredsalmonella]

Nell. Fire Emblem's Critical Hits on Steroids.

[@ZenoDLC]

I can't help but think of Kanbei as a transformer thanks to you...

[@Siptom369]

Now we know how to defeat other players online by pure luck

[@MetalPheonix]

Cannot believe how many people after all these years still get confused by it. I suppose it's not inherently explained, but, after playing long enough it starts to make sense.

[@albertoenriquez21]

As a wise woman said: "Luck IS a skill!"

[@MegamanNG]

So basically Luck in Advance Wars is how much added oomph you deliver on your enemy. That's fair. Luck in Fire Emblem is a bit more complicated because it depends on the game and how it's implemented.

[@LaughingOrange]

Except for Nell it doesn't make a huge difference, so it's just a fun mechanic.

[@bodkimalone]

Who else discovered this video before actually getting into advance wars then got linked it by an online friend after telling them you've started it and don't understand Nell's power

[@stefenboney7145]

Damn, never knew bad luck worked like that. Whenever I play as AW2 Sonja her bad luck would always stick in the back of my head, but this video just relieves me. It's not as bad as flaks lmao

[@Mishimachine]

I don't care, I still like using Sonja with her bad luck.

[@royalghost4914]

Yeah she is awesome in fow

[@Aka.Aka.]

Same

[@paulrasmussen8953]

She is all about the counter attack

[@cantrip7]

6:12 "which isn't statistically very likely to happen" I wish you included the results of some calculations here. Numbers are fun! But aside from that nitpick, loved the video, and the tier list from earlier.

[@glance1107]

Man youtube recommendations really want mangs to be popular

[@Hone_mor2525]

It's more like they want Advance Wars to be popular, because a new game has been announced and Mangs makes pretty good AW content.

[@light6666]

niel's infantry when attacking a neotank: "oke who has the anti material rifles?"

[@thelastrebel13]

Thanks for explaining luck mango this is going to help me greatly when I finally get to play this game I cannot wait💜

[@racer927]

You know... Sonja not benefitting from Luck that much actually makes a lot of sense for her character as having more consistent damage means more consistent outcomes for a strategy she might be planning.

[@CabereaWoof]

When it comes to my thoughts on luck with advance wars, I feel it's overall fine to have with it, just...maybe Ness's should be a bit toned down, having an infantry be able to randomly waltz up and obliterate a Neotank is pretty yikes, even if it is with a super power. Like, I feel her good luck values should be swapped with Flak, would make both CO's more balanced with their luck mechanics.

[@whichDude]

Luck based Advance Wars video, but only covers 1 and 2. Beep Boops in Jugger.

[@Innosos]

Hey Mangs, thanks for the info. I have a few follow up questions for you or anyone that knows the underlying mechanics of the game: 1. The pseudorandom process that rolls for the luck values: Is it uniformly distributed? (E.g. rolling a fair dice is a uniformly distributed random process - all outcomes are equally probable) 2. You said damaged units don't roll for the maximum luck value. Is the range of this altered pseudorandom process altered by some function like this one: random(unit health / max health * luck range)? In other words: With a luck value of 20 and a unit with displayed health 3, will the outcome of the pseudorandom process yield values within [0, 5]? 3. Units in the game have a health represented as an integer, possibly ranging from hp € [0, 100] or hp € [0, 255] to use the whole size of a byte (visible by the hp bar). Now, if the game calculates an attack, will it first round to the displayed health points, e.g. 4, 5, 6... to calculate the attack power or will it use the full range of the hidden health value? In other words: Will a unit with "86" health deal less damage than a unit with "94" health or is everything that matters the displayed health (9 in that case I presume)? Thanks for the content, it has really resparked my interest in AW!

[@TheAustin1]

Well you better hope that you're lucky in this game

[@AnythingMachine]

Javier and his comm towers are hilariously broken because instead of multiplying defence his comm towers ADD to defence. So have 10 comm towers and you have -10*10=-100% damage added AFTER everything else, so nothing, not Nell super co or Colin with 999k funds, can damage him in any way

[@AnythingMachine]

I've done the experiment myself, nell vs javier and it never does damage. It should be damage = damage_0 X 0.9^(N_towers) but it's actually damage = damage - 0.1*(N_towers)

[@michael_betts]

All defence values work this way, defence is weird, you take (damage*attack/100+luck)*((200-CO defence - terrain stars * unit hp)/100), this means kanbei's super causes units to be invincible on HQs and mountains in AW2 (200-160-4*10) = 0. AWDS takes it even further, so 8 hp units on mountains/hq, and 10 hp units on cities are immune to damage. (200-170-4*8) = -2 , (200-170-3*10) = 0 Stacking defensive buffs is much more useful than stacking offensive buffs, at least in extreme cases.

[@dejureranger4634]

Great vids man, can you do a video about how to play each CO in terms of what units play the best for which CO? Thanks

[@chrispratt3666]

It is fair to say that sometimes Sonja deals less damage. Sometimes her good luck rolls low and her bad luck rolls high and she ends up dealing less than the percentage shown.

[@Prodawg]

Luck as a mechanic, makes logical sense. Sometimes you just hit a much more impactful blow.

[@Raykushi]

Good video. I didn't find it as complicated as you made it sound. I'd prefer to think it's because I'm a genius, but I'll scrap that theory and just give you the credit by saying you explained it so well that it was impossible to not understand :PP

[@keenices1972]

I have always been wondering how luck works. It's an enemy to me almost all the time

[@iamLI3]

wow , i played this game so much i could most of the time accurately predict how much extra damage i would do with my attacks but i never knew about how this mechanic worked col vid

[@pauloneill9647]

Yessss was waiting a whole day for this lmao

[@agdtkry]

I remember back in the day I attacked my cousin's med tank with infantry with Nell as my CO. I used the super power and deleted it. He went ballistic. It was a good day.

[@cadentannery4626]

I do like the luck in advance wars, because mostly it will only take out 1 more hp or so. I just wish for balancing, there was luck applied to specific units. Like artillery will occasionally only hit 50 percent of its damage. Maybe the same with rockets. Basically anything to stop indirect spam.

[@9Tensai9]

wait... people underestimate Nell? You kidding right? I bet those people never played against her. Got her into a corner. Surround her by tons of units just for her to use her super power and wipe out everything you have in one turn. Like honestly, whenever I went against Nell and she got her power I would just flee and regroup. It works on her counterattack too. The only safe thing to do then is to use artily but that's it.

[@-ism8153]

He says it's super complicated a couple of times in his videos, but, honestly, I feel like this is the simplest way they could have handled chance in the damage you do. Luck and bad luck are bonuses to straight attack damage that have an even chance of getting any bonus in their range. The most confusing part is just that %s are how health/damage is conveyed, but that applies to all damage, not just luck. Then there's damage changing with unit health, but you can just think of it as part of the attack.

[@E88twenty2]

You should do a video on what a crime it was ignore this series for so long. I've been playing off and on for almost 10 years, that's not something I can say for most games. This game has so much going for it. It's an old school game in the best sense. No updates, no patches, no DLC, no lootboxes..just a well made game, full stop.

[@duelistdecoolest1893]

I'd really like to see a discussion video about the equipable skills in Dual Strike. Which ones are good? Which ones are situational? Which ones are better than they seem? You could even do a tier list.

[@yeetlordentertainment3937]

Calling it now, Prairie Dog and Pathfinder at S tier.

[@notspoileratall5471]

I now feel bad for Flak, i know he's the "tutorial boi" but still he needs a buff.

[@generalbitter6660]

It makes the game more unpredictable. Luck can have a big impact especially Nell with her Superpower can, if she is lucky, absolutely destroy enemies. In AW it might be the best stat but i couldnt find much information about it on the internet. The explanation is helpful. Where did you get the information from? The remake should be balanced at least for competitive.

[@ShrimpRice]

When games have a more unpredictable flavor, it allows for -Replayability and -Different Outcomes. and while without any recognition by the game for it, it seems more mysterious, I do wish there was a tutorial/guide on it.

[@generalbitter6660]

@@ShrimpRice Luck might make the game better. You cannot exactly foretell what is going to happen and things can go differently. I hope that after the remakes, there will be a new game in the series. Maybe another story arc of our favorite characters or a follow-up of Dual Strike? The series is truly a masterpiece. I also look forward for Metroid and the next Fire Emblem.

[@eljugadorescaldenc4002]

I remember playing the first AW in the time, my friends and I evidently we do not know the luck status as described in your video. But we understood that sometimes Nell could destroy a unit when it was impossible in other way. It was fun to play with and against her.

[@Abundy]

I don't have enough experience to comment on luck in Advance Wars, but I remember hating it in Wargroove. I don't know if it behaves exactly as luck in AW, but there also was some amount of damage variance and a common early game matchup was literally a 50/50 whether it would kill or not because of it (Commander vs the basic soldier on a road). Having that 1 HP soldier in the way vs your opponent getting the oneshot and being able to cap earlier etc. could decide the whole tempo of a match and is a big reason why I disliked the luck mechanic in Wargroove a lot.

[@mauricesteel4995]

On Wargroove is more irritating because of the way the game presents variable damage. WG luck has the same range as AW but WG by default(you can change that now) display the middling result, so in AW luck adds 0-9 damage, the way WG presents it seems like its -5 to 5 instead, making you pick matchups that you think hou will wipe only for the target escape with 1 hp.

[@xidjav1836]

Do you think that Flak should get a buff with higher luck average and Nell having less luck. Making Flak a high Risk high reward and Nell being consistant

[@Sines314]

That's what I thought Flak was, back in the day, actually. Also, I think Flak's Luck shouldn't be a Positive + Negative Luck roll. Two rolls results in more consistency, as you're more likely to roll towards the middle. Which really fits Sonjas theme, but if Flak is supposed to be very swingy and unreliable, then a flat roll equally likely to give -10% or +15% as it is to give +5% is much better.

[@M30W3R]

There is a reason why Flak has always had a very, huh, "special" place in people's heart.