How Many Artillery Shells Does Russia Have Left?

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Footage:
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BTS Prolog - Kevin MacLeod - incompetech.com

[@oldi184]

2022: they almost run out of shells. ....a year later 2023: they have almost no ammo

[@bjpITcell009]

West: So now we are providing Ukrainian with cluster munition shells.

[@sH-ed5yf]

Nobody claimed the run out of shells. But aperently the logistics are flaud

[@oldi184]

@@sH-ed5yf Nobody? So CNN is nobody? CNN claimed that in the late summer of 2022. What are you saying?

[@BobWill1846]

"leave them at worst enough to last till march 2023 and that's not even counting new rounds that could be produced in the meantime". Yes, because that was a worst case estimate of only using stockpiles, not factoring any production.

[@isisrael771]

2024: 🫡

[@hermanwooster8944]

This was laid out very nicely. I read that in one battle in 1945 as many as 500,000 shells were fired in just *30 minutes.* I can't even begin to imagine the sheer firepower and scale of destruction that must've occurred.

[@panderson9561]

Seelow Heights...maybe?

[@Rhaspun]

Russia has the advantage with artillery. They have at least a 10 to 1 advantage artillery. So they are trying their best to make it work.

[@MarcusSantAnna]

LoL guys we are hearing this since the first week. According to KZbin specialists Russia should destroyed and Moscow on NATO hands 😂 but in real world Ukraine is shrinking not to mention US & EU on the verge of collapse 👀

[@Rob8729]

@@MarcusSantAnna That must be some good shyte you're smoking.

[@panderson9561]

@White Star Alliance What are you babbling about?

[@cantrun5491]

1 year later and Russia isnt out

[@BobWill1846]

"leave them at worst enough to last till march 2023 and that's not even counting new rounds that could be produced in the meantime". Yes, because that was a worst case estimate, not factoring any production.

[@crymeaariver]

@@BobWill1846

[@MrPilgrimuk]

2 years now.

[@jmanj3917]

1:20 Russia didn't come up with the nickname of "King of Battle" for artillery, nor did the USA invent the term "Queen of Battle" for the Infantry. Those terms go back at least as far as Napoleon, who dominated his opponents using artillery and maneuver warfare. C'mon Guys!!

[@kokomo9764]

Russia has millions of 152mm shells left. They are in no danger of running out. The Soviet Union was obsessed with manufacturing them because they always assumed that any war with NATO would be an artillery war.

[@okakokakiev787]

That's because in ww2 Germany had arti superiority and soviets learned the hard way to never ever be outgunned

[@kokomo9764]

@@okakokakiev787 True

[@SiriusMined]

Having them, and having them in usable condition aren't the same thing

[@Creek_Hunter]

@@SiriusMined I would say they are working fine. Ask the poor Ukrainian civilians.

[@Meh-hr7gq]

Yeah but the rifling in the barrel gets shot out which makes the accuracy go to total crap after about 2000 rds fired. The barrel then has to be reworked, or replaced which makes it have to go back to a factory.

[@basswarnow]

9:37 As a German, more like every day! Over two million tons of bombs were dropped here in WW2. In most places you aren't even allowed to conduct any kind of earth moving without contacting the authorities first. They have special offices that review post-bombardement aerial photos by Allied reconnaissance planes and look for tiny holes that indicate a bomb has hit the ground but didn't explode. They then dispatch an EOD team which checks these suspicious points with ground scanning radars and special devices that detect magnetic anormalies. More often than not, they find unexploded bombs, often multiple on a single construction site! But sometimes a random bomb is found and thousands of people have to be evacuated immediately. I myself live in a city that suffered over 100 air attacks, amongst it the single heaviest air raid in Europe, and have stopped counting the number of times I had to leave my house due to a bomb defusal. But still, could be worse. My grandparents had to run to the air raid shelters and witnessed the destruction first hand when they were kids.

[@paristo]

It is horrible they every year in Berlin alone there die people to Americans and British bombs, and what does world say?

[@ahuels67]

Bruh

[@michaelvos9721]

Appreciate the perspective! Yikes, I did not realize such present day impact from a war 80 years ago.

[@janos5555]

I wanted to comment the same thing. I live close to Bremen and I hear about bomb disposals every week. I have always wondered how it feels like to live in a country where you don't find bombs at a every construction site

[@janos5555]

@@auspexr4612 Where are you from? Most nations commited genocids in there history. That fact doesn't make the holocaust any better and it is one of the worst genocids in history or even the worst but most nations had blood on their hands at some point in history.

[@sxxon751]

The European lack of investment in arms and ammunition is embarrassing looking at this in hindsight.

[@Lenderz]

The barrel wear is likely to be an issue before ammo runs out.

[@alexnderrrthewoke4479]

Continue copium

[@homijbhabha8860]

Don't know about the Russians, but in India the barrels are made of steel and not titanium like the M777's because steal is malleable and so can easily be beaten back into shape.

[@VintageWarfare]

@@alexnderrrthewoke4479 bro, lmao he’s right

[@alexnderrrthewoke4479]

@@VintageWarfare he is not though. If you think Russia is doing bad because barrel issues then I got another bridge to sell you.

[@Chris-gs7cq]

This is like hoping that the thug who is beating you to death is forced to stop because his arms get tired.

[@jimsackmanbusinesscoaching1344]

The bigger issue is likely to be barrel life of the artillery. They have lots of stocks, but quality of that might be a problem. Also, many stocks are 122mm. These are not really used in active units and there may be low stockpiles of 122mm ammo. Anyway, Russia builds all of its barrels in a single factory as I understand it. There are western machine tools there that are required to build new barrels and who knows the state of those. So, this is also something to keep an eye on.

[@trollmcclure1884]

so they will upgrade to smoothbore cannons and keep using them 🙂

[@davidmurphy563]

That's absolutely right. It's the barrels which are the bottleneck, not the shells. I believe there are two factories but the production capacity is not high. They're putting huge resources into trying to keep civil aviation in the sky and next to nothing to ramp tube production. This ties in with how short-term they're being in general. Hell, they're putting their trainers on the frontline, they're not rotating, they're chewing through reserves. They're going to start seeing the effectiveness of the artillery drop over the coming months. That's just physics. Another big factor is their jet engines, they need to overhaul after 300hrs, they're just not able to do that. Another couple of months and we could see planes dropping out of the sky.

[@steveosborne2297]

As far as I understand it the average barrel life is only about 2000 shells . After that it needs a full factory refurbishment otherwise it’s so inaccurate to be useless .

[@Gstyle1]

That's not true, this barrels are from Soviet times and I doubt USSR used back then western tools

[@terjeoseberg990]

The issue with barrel life has to do with the rifling of the barrels. After about 2,500 to 3,000 rounds, the shell stops spinning, so the accuracy is reduced. But, since Russians can’t aim, and don’t care to try, the barrel life is irrelevant for them. They’ll just fire 10-20x the rounds, and rely on luck.

[@TheHallucinati]

I'll save you 15 minutes of your life: He doesn't know the answer to that question. Not that I blame him, even the Russian generals don't know how many shells are left. How else do you think a Georgian accountant was able to rule the Soviet Union with an iron fist for so long? That's right: he had all the answers xD

[@Alphasig336]

Russia has to be nervous about it they are seizing artillery and rockets from Belarus, Georgia and Chechnya.

[@ColonelBragg]

Its not like artillery shells are difficult to mass produce.

[@texanplayer7651]

@@ColonelBragg They aren't difficult to mass procude, but they become expensive. Even the cheapest russian shell costs at least a couple hundred dollars to manufactures, that's the average monthly salary there. If Russia shoots something like 20 or 60 000 shells each day, they are wasting tens of millions of dollars worth of weapons each day. Not mentioning the artillery guns they need to repair each time.

[@bruderbrot5268]

Thanks, I just wanted to know the answer. Saved me some time.

[@BakingBadOBX]

@@bruderbrot5268 it's still a worthwhile video with a lot of information detailing why he doesnt know, and what speculation could determine

[@Bibitybopitybacon]

People have been predicting Russia was running out of stuff since the beginning. They were running out of missiles. They were running out of tanks. None of it was true. Now they're running out of ammunition or barrels on their artillery. I want a free Ukrainian as much as the next man, but pinning our hopes on Russia, one of the biggest arms exporters in the world, running out of arms seems foolish.

[@fbiopenthepizzabox1452]

i 100% agree with this, i believe western propaganda is mostly to blame for that and i too want a free ukraine but its just the truth

[@fbiopenthepizzabox1452]

@Non-Stick Pan and what does that tell us? Nothing

[@BambiTrout]

@Non-Stick Pan sometimes making thing go boom is more important than making thing move - particularly when battle lines become more static.

[@chuckthomas1872]

@Non-Stick Pan I bet your vehicle's tires are made in china too.

[@coderentity2079]

@Non-Stick Pan If you know anything about original Russian military budget intentions, you should be locked up.

[@yingnyang2889]

There’s no shortage of ammo. Doesn’t matter the caliber. Was in military in 81’ and we were practicing with .50 caliber ammo … from 1944. Still sealed with ether. Mind you, we had participated in the Korean War, Vietnam war and practiced every year for ~36 yrs at that time. They have plenty.

[@peterwarner553]

Given the parlous state of their armour coming out of storage I wouldn't bet on russian artillery shells from storage being in top notch condition.

[@MightyRude]

I think their artillery pieces will wear out before shells run out. Artillery experts say that Russian artillery will be worn out and needs to be replaced by the end of the month. It looks like they don’t have artillery replacements because we haven’t seen much artillery enter Ukraine in the last month.

[@dynamicascension981]

@@MightyRude i believe sanctions were intended to prevent replacement of military equipment.

[@MightyRude]

@@dynamicascension981 Russia is having a huge steel shortage, projects are being put on hold and manufacturing has slowed to a halt, so my guess is that they redirected all steel supplies to dumb weapon manufacturing.

[@wimpow]

As some other youtuber said, it is more probable that wear and tear get the cannons more and more innacurate, and they will have some troubles changing them, but that´s it. The only way out is destroying Russias artillery ...or their soldiers.

[@bobalmond8257]

It must also be noted that barrels can’t be shot over and over again indefinitely. They must be refurbished. How quickly can they move new pieces to the front? How many pieces that are supposed to be in storage were actually maintained properly? Even if they have enough shells 🐚 for how long will they have artillery to shoot them with?

[@gregspohn1236]

I gotta agree with you on this one. They can't produce more artillery pieces as far as I know with all the sanctions. They will have to start taking pieces from other theaters such as Syria (Happy asshole?) and other occupied territories. That's after they use all the old shit in storage. Sooner or later. Russia will have to decide how badly they wish to continue. I always thought the Rusdian people would be a factor. But they are so well trained that they wouldn't know what to do with actual liberty.

[@tomriley5790]

Yes I was wondering about this whether barrel wear and replacing/manufacturing the barrels could be more of a limiting factor than shells - I have to say that I doubt it (at least for a while, I'm guessing Russia always planned on fighting an artillery war during the cold war and likely they manufactured and stored the barrels appropriately. But still....

[@jeremytaylor3532]

A drill with an engine cylinder hone on an extended shaft will allow field rehab of artillery pieces. If you don't care about losing a few crews from misfires. And Russia seems to place a lot less value on their soldiers than the west.

[@fedoraphill8599]

they lost 20 million to hitlers's nazis. the ukraine nazis can kill 40 million and they'd still find a way to steamroll in.

[@JinKee]

you only need good artillery barrels if you care about accuracy and safety.

[@iangreenhalgh9280]

There is absolutely zero chance of Russia running out of artillery shells. Ukraine however, would have run out months ago if it weren't for the shipments from the West. Western nations have been taking advantage of the war to get rid of their oldest stocks of munitions and weapons, for instance, British stocks of shells manufactured in 1972 were being shipped to Ukraine in recent weeks.

[@rebelliousfew]

Yep, and we like to shit on Russia for using older equipment, yet we see Ukraine use lots of old equipment and ammunition, and we don’t see a single problem and call them the winner automatically. It’s strange with people’s mindsets these days.

[@janezperko1161]

Nne months later... Russia still has ammunition. 😂😂😂.

[@sH-ed5yf]

And He never claimed it wouldnt

[@clifflegrand4848]

@@sH-ed5yf he did say it 🤡. He said by March 2023 Russia may run out.

[@sH-ed5yf]

@@clifflegrand4848 nope He didnt you didnt whatch the video

[@clifflegrand4848]

@@sH-ed5yf I watched the whole video

[@sH-ed5yf]

@@clifflegrand4848 obviosöy not

[@TimVoktwo]

That same question was asked at the beginning of the war. After over a year Russia is still firing a minimum of 6000 shells a day. Now they're saying that North Korea is supplying them with weapons, and yet they were also saying that North Korea is a third world country with no industrial capability. These people are lunatics. They can't make up their minds.

[@sH-ed5yf]

He didnt said russia will completly run out by now. And yes by many Standards NK is a second World country. Health System, agriculture and others are severly underdeveloped

[@DrChe2025]

@@sH-ed5yfHopeless bigote!🤔. Go and get your 20th cov boost. It is certainly still helping you in your little and limited Orwellian world!🤢

[@rogerwood2864]

Speaking of artillery, I'm pretty sure you can see up-to-the-minute shelling of Ukraine using open-source lightning maps. Compare them to cloud cover and you get to see where the large munitions drop. Crazy times.

[@DuchessandHammer]

That’s mad. Thanks for the tip.

[@ivanatora]

Lightning detectors use electric signals produced in a lightning strike, which is not accountable in artillery strike, no?

[@rogerwood2864]

@@ivanatora Good question. I haven't vetted the idea. I assumed the satellites used the burst of "light" from the strike to measure the size and location, thermal and otherwise. But worth looking up.

[@DuchessandHammer]

@@ivanatora almost certain that the “Lightning strokes” are recorded and triangulated through radio frequency. Not electronic impulses. If it was solely electricity I would imagine it would be a headache to have every node in the network verifying against each other. I could be wrong although.

[@VisibilityFoggy]

They're not lightning maps. They're FIRMS maps which are measured using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer system via NASA satellite. There are also some private satellite firms that license the use of their synthetic aperture radar tech to measure fire activity.

[@thetooginator153]

I worked with a Vietnam War artillery officer decades ago, and he told me that American radar could trace back the source of VC artillery very quickly (and the VC knew it).

[@michaellastname4922]

That is called 'counter-battery fire.' If you are still sitting in the same place 5 minutes later, life insurance premiums better up-to-date.

[@hansrama3485]

most militaries can

[@tomf4087]

fire then scarper

[@zerefsunlimitedshipworks]

@@tomf4087 shoot and scoot

[@John_Doe448]

So what Russia has been doing?

[@kchiridyasser1897]

russia would never run out of ammo , not only they have massive stockpiles from the soviet era , but they can produce their own without the need of any foreign country

[@TheDwightMamba]

Their stockpiles from the Cold War era were sold all over the world as soon as The Soviet Union was split up. Their tanks are mostly for parts. As far as ammunition goes, they have the manpower and natural resources to reload every gun in their arsenal.

[@robertandersen4164]

Also worth noting, they have become pretty good buddies with the most powerful manufacturing country on earth.

[@bomjahed]

All that devastation with just shovels, can you imagine the scale if there still was ammunition?

[@sH-ed5yf]

Who claimed russia would run out of shells

[@bomjahed]

@@sH-ed5yf idk, 1.5 years ago BBC said that existing supplies would only last for 3 days

[@sH-ed5yf]

@@bomjahed yes you dont know. Cause that is a dirty lie. I looked it up. What they do say is thst precice wapons are in short supply. And this is the case. Cause they barly launch any meaningfull waves of misles anymore. And btw. Hundreds of Videos of russian soildiers indeed imply that they are very short in supply.

[@bomjahed]

@@sH-ed5yf it appears that you are German, your opinion on that matter doesn't count for historical reasons

[@sH-ed5yf]

@@bomjahed hold on. Seriusly. So the crimes that happened two generations before I was even born, disqualifey me to make observations and critizise an evil war. In fact the russians should have learned even more. But time and time again they fall into dictatorship and let their leaders suppress them and other nations. Sad story. You supoort a regime that is basicly commiting genozide to ukraine. Yet you want to tell me how evil my ancastors where. Very sad story, kid

[@kit888]

Artillery spotters have been used at least since ww2 to call in adjustments for accurate artillery fire.

[@apkrings]

Before that even. During WWI, hot air balloons were used to spot for artillery fire.

[@RudeCorona]

Yeah, but the spotter has to relay the info, with the help of drone, you can actually see where you hit. That's first in the history of warfare for a howitzer crew ... as a former memeber of one ... to me it seems like cheating.

[@marvinamann4969]

The only difference is that with a drone this suicide job is done by a machine no one will miss.

[@hnorrstrom]

They even used ballons before ww1 nothing new under the sun.

[@eddiesaninocencio7486]

Advanced countries use satellite imagery to direct artillery fire, also many artillery shells are either laser or satellite guided munitions.

[@AllAboutYouTubers13]

*The equipment being worn out is more of a problem right now I’d say!*

[@loganmerryman202]

I've seen that Russian tank repair shops are refusing to repair the tanks that hasn't been taken by the Ukrainian Tractor Army and actually been rescued by Russian rescue.

[@johnpaul3099]

@@loganmerryman202 what a load of bullshit

[@haikalhadzik7744]

they have more than 20.000 of soviet era BMPs and more than 7.000 tank of which 2.500 of those are T-72

[@eliasziad7864]

Yes, and Ukrainian artillery is so advanced they cannot be worn out...

[@johnpaul3099]

@@eliasziad7864 Shhhh you're talking sense

[@BigT2664]

It's worth mentioning that Soviet military strategy was to outnumber the enemy artillery by a factor of at least 3 to 1... 10 to 1 or higher was preferred. They came up with those numbers by examining their own history versus the Nazis in World War II. Accuracy was not as important as sheer volume. Because Mr KGB is running the show, expect the volume of Russian artillery to be excessive.

[@Alphasig336]

The nice part is their range is short. When 60 to 300 HIMARS start destroying hundreds of tanks and artillery from western Ukraine out of range of almost all of Russia munitions. Only multimillion dollar cruise Missiles are within range and the HIMARS would be gone before they could strike.

[@Andrey264]

@@Alphasig336 2S35 Koalizija-SW, Смерч (РСЗО)

[@Bibitybopitybacon]

@@Alphasig336 .... they aren't getting 300... they haven't even gotten 20 yet... last I heard they had 12 with another 4 on the way. 16 is going to hurt the Russians. It isn't going to stop them..

[@pth6060]

Russia is almost out of ammunition.

[@Bibitybopitybacon]

@@pth6060 where did you hear that? The same people that said they were running out of missiles in March?

[@patrickkinney4998]

Russia has been stockpiling artillery shells for years. Shells have a shelf life. That's why the old shells get shot first. They have millions of shells. They can fire thousands a day for twenty days. They shoot more in a day than America can manufacture in a month. The leader of Mozart said Russia can lay down an artillery barrage that has to be seen to be believed.

[@sH-ed5yf]

And now they have to buy shells drom notth korea

[@hamish1309]

Russia is one of the 5 biggest arms exporters in the world, they make lots of weapons.

[@backintimealwyn5736]

videos like this keep on spewing wishful thinking. It's been four months of "why Russia's going to loose next week " and some people still don't get it. As much as one wants to support Ukraine , at some point you need to aknowlege reality . Russia's winning, they do have the weapons ,they're economy is fine, if they run out of artillery (which I highly doubt) they have a plan B. They've just announced that they were going to intensify attacks and that the real thing had'nt started yet. Since the begining there was that constant smug underestimation of Russia's capacity and plan , I don't know if it's some kind of communication strategy , but it's clearly uneffective to win a war.

[@71kimg]

Yeah - they are used to supply wars

[@huidaoren]

Yes that no one wants to buy anymore as they are shit

[@ionion-gk3iu]

Russia lost a lot of contracts. I think the biggest client were India. After see the results of Russia fighting vehicles on battle field, well you start to think about to buy! And there is a second outcome. Most of the major high tech programs Russia has, it was based on sales abroad which get the money for also internal acquisitions. Example is SU-57 Felon. It seem they have just 10 in the sky. No one want to buy now this aircraft! So no more money for production for PVO.

[@Bee.Holder]

@@huidaoren You just described your own comment.

[@mercuzio711]

Another problem for Russia is that the caliber of rounds they have in storage may not be the one they need.

[@Alyosha9333]

More or less. Russia mainly uses 122mm and 152mm artillery, so it is reasonable to assume most of their artillery shells in storage are of those caliber.

[@mercuzio711]

@@gattonero2915 LOL, russian lover keyboard warrior detected.

[@aronaskengren5608]

@@gattonero2915 wow, thats... A lot of bullshit to unpack there...

[@speedyv6247]

Russia has not changed the caliber is uses in decades.

[@tunahxushi4669]

@@gattonero2915 ... OK comrade. Chinese right? So sad the life of the little internet troll... Poverty, no love, no hope, sad...

[@machenka]

I really like your estimation technique. Ever heard about Fermi estimation? That’s more or less what you did in this video and this has shown to be quite reliable when comparing the estimate to the real result if and when it becomes known. Keep using that technique and I’m sure you’re gonna come up with some interesting videos.

[@davids1inwestholl45]

EXCELLENT VIDEO! GR8 content. Very good & very consistent production. Kinda folksy narration, but in the end, you've got the great money shots, no doubt about that!

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

My take-away from this video is that total supplies of artillery rounds will not become a problem for Russia for at least several months and perhaps at all.

[@JG-xm8jy]

That's the title of the video, that's what the video establishes at it's core, but the conclusion is doesn't follow the premise, conclusion is that Ukraine may win the war because of Russia's logistical problems....tell me it's copium without telling me it's copium

[@mrdumbfellow927]

@@JG-xm8jy Your comment doesn't make sense, who's coping with what? He never claimed either side would win, just tried to explain how hard it can be to supply the Russian front with the artillery shells it DOES have in storage. Tell me you didn't pay attention to the video, without saying you didn't pay attention to the video. Have a nice day.

[@labouroflove948]

@@JG-xm8jy If copium had a physical component the current use levels would require under roof manufacturing infrastructure covering half of Ukraine and the sheer volume of raw material needed would see the other half of Ukraine strip-mined to a level deeper than Mariana's trench.

[@Bee.Holder]

A simple solution, if that becomes a problem at all, is to slightly reduce saturation of the battlefield with shells.

[@lobohez7222]

Russia is fighting on its border on russian speaking teritories and you telling us they will have logistic problems? Do you even lift?

[@T.Higbee]

Love your work and look forward to each and every video you make even if I dont have much interest it is always well presented! What I love the most is the effort you put into being objective and unbiased as possible! Well done covert cobal!

[@MrVanmaniac]

To put it in perspective: during the siege at Khe Sanh in 1968 the US dropped over 100.000 tons of explosives from the air, in addition to 158.000 artillery shells.

[@moonstruck336]

Great info, no baiting ! Thank you !

[@Aaron.Monroe]

Always love your videos bro, wish there were more frequent uploads because I love the channel but I know a lot of research goes in to it.

[@dobrijevicdalibor1019]

kzbin.info/www/bejne/hXXGYpyBrJ5-ask

[@stuartemmanuel3735]

This KZbinr here is rambling based on his speculation not facts, unless it's from an Russian general himself till then this is up for debate.

[@krossbolt4100]

@@stuartemmanuel3735 But right through the video he states the caveats and that these are estimates. He has not stated his numbers are facts and he has revealed his sources. Your criticism is unwarranted and overreach.

[@nanlog4303]

That is the point. Clearly little research goes into the facts.

[@esagil_playz4334]

Yes because fact's are not for u. They're redacted

[@Lavashishaurma]

One Russian journalist named Alexander Nevzorov said that when he was in Chechen war, there were hundreds of warehouses full of ammo, where you had to travel by car in order to get to the end of the stockpiles

[@guyb7995]

Now that sounds like a nice place for a fire to break out at. I wonder if the location is know to the west. No doubt its heavily defended, especially in these times. Something that large could have security weaknesses though. Sounds like another one of those crazy missions such as the Doolittle Raid.

[@thinkerly1]

In the latest Russian-Chechen War -- there have been eight -- the Russians bombed the Chechens for ten years. Grozni was reduced to rubble.

[@JG-xm8jy]

@@guyb7995 wake up or you'll sh*t the bed

[@castlekingside76]

Dude that would pop off like a nuke lol

[@Admin-gm3lc]

This Nevzorov guy is a complete clown. For example, he said that he literally called the Azov by the phone and later said that they are not nazis but brave guys just because they told him so

[@ataxpayer723]

"How Many Artillery Shells Does Russia Have Left?" Answer. Plenty

[@equim7363]

Wow, such a scrutinized analysis. Great job!

[@Bwaffle7826]

A very important point that needs to be made that wasn't covered, is artillery barrels can only fire so many shells. Not only does Russia need to bring in shell's but thay have to take care of their barrels on said artillery. They typically start losing accuracy after 1500 shells and can become dangerous to operate anywhere after 3 to 5,000 shells. This is sometimes the factor that matters in war and Russia is using conscripts and reservists to fight with outdated or poor equipment. So with that in mind the barrels on their artillery is what I would be most concerned about keeping from the front line.

[@camr1861]

lllllll

[@rerbitd7094]

Russia does not use conscripts and reservists in Ukraine. Where did you get this false information from?

[@pratyushojha]

This is the most salient post on Russian war fighting that i have seen in a long time. The answer is we just don't know what is the residual barrel life of guns in the field along with the ability of the Russians to replace the degraded barrels.

[@FM4AMGV]

Russia turned old 23mm anti aircraft barrels into shotgun barrels. I don't think there is a manufacturing limitation

[@jtwilliams8895]

@@rerbitd7094 um, probably directly from Ukrainian propaganda. They’ll have you believe that all the Russians in Ukraine are 18-20 year old conscripts, who didn’t know they were going to war and have no training and poor equipment.

[@zachsherman7193]

wow a 15min covert cabal video this is like gold to me!

[@jarrettbobbett5230]

You should get out more, it's a big beautiful world out there.

[@zachsherman7193]

@@jarrettbobbett5230 i get out just fine. had a very long tiresome work week and just got off myself so im relaxing then i got the next 2 days off and im doing things

[@michaelhall7546]

@@jarrettbobbett5230 damn you mean 😮

[@ingo98]

15 min of nonsense. enjoy

[@keksi6844]

@@jarrettbobbett5230 He is Russian Agent.

[@billhawver1807]

Great research!! Glad I found your channel.

[@andyspoo2]

This is over 12 months old now and guess what.....they still haven't run out of ammo.

[@user-dv7hq2rh4g]

I've seen a clip of Russian TV where one of their military experts say they fire in excess of 50,000 artillery shells per day. He was talking about 1500 artillery pieces each firing 40 - 50 shells per day. It was a serious piece since he insisted Russia needs the economy to switch to war time economy to be able to sustain this, so not just some boasting propaganda. That's why I believe 10,000 shells might be an underestimation.

[@mrdumbfellow927]

@@relaxingnature2617 That's a LOT of collateral damage even being generous with a 10 percent accuracy rate. I mean eventually there seems like there will be nothing left to "win" in the country for Russia! Not to mention the civilians that live remain in country for Russian rule aren't going to forget it. Just sucks all around

[@SarevokRegor]

Additionally Russia had 4000 4.5 ton military trucks for logistics. Even assuming half aren't deployed, Russia can deliver that many with a quarter of its truck fleet, even making only 1 trip a day.

[@obamagaming-zv4vy]

And artillery shells have 70%chance of still being usable after storage,and god knows how many have been in total produced from the soviet era to today

[@ronblack7870]

@@mrdumbfellow927 putin doesn't care if there are no civilians left.and as for accuracy their targets ARE the civilians. they just destroy the entire town . they did that in chechnia and syria. that's how they fight.

[@michalherman15]

@@SarevokRegor most of those logi trucks are destroyed

[@unlink1649]

Your content is amazing. Great research, well put together. Thank you man

[@catcatcatcatcatcatcatcatcatca]

I don’t think armies run out of artillery shells. Just in general. They are relatively easy to produce and store, so it’s hard to imagine a nation securing all the more complex resources while running out of the one simple resource.

[@l.h.9747]

no army ever trule runs out of artillery shells but it basically happened in every war that production cant keep up with demand and when supply is low they have to cancel certain artillery bombardments

[@cz1589]

In a nutshell: Russia will have enough stocks and plenty guns to fire them as long as they want. So its about logistics, moral en having enough soldiers and commanders alive to use them - as weak points that can be terminal. If they cant bring the ammo and weapons to the front in enough numbers in reasonable time, they might as well have all ammo stocked on the moon - it will become useless. And when your armies are leeched of trained soldiers, good commanders or organization or the will to fight - the biggest arsenal doesnt matter anyway.

[@righthandstep5]

None you mentioned are true

[@LVRaven610]

Thank you for yet another well done and informational video. I truly enjoy your content and appreciate your good work.

[@Chuck_Hooks]

Russia may be running out of flying tank turrets.

[@michaelhall7546]

Lollipops 😮

[@tunahxushi4669]

I hope not, watching a Russian turret fly is just like watching a rosebud open... magical and beautiful.

[@SapperUSMC]

keep up the good work! love your content !!!

[@theodoroseidler7072]

Thanks for the insights!

[@TheGreatHorde]

Artillery is the most versatile weapon on the battlefield to this day. Air-burst rounds, white phosphorus, nuclear, high explosive, antipersonnel, and illuminating a battlefield. We always need more artillery to keep an edge, but it's always neglected until after the fact. The biggest threat to artillery units is aircraft, so air defense should be the next topic.

[@killagamez4619]

What countries use white phosphorus. It’s banned in most countries

[@TheGreatHorde]

@@killagamez4619 who told you it was banned? It's in use by the US Army and NATO allies. It should be banned, but isn't.

[@juliansilva5272]

@@killagamez4619 it's only banned for use against civilian targets, that's about it.

[@tommygun5038]

Yep that's what NATO invested in. Its combined arms not just artillery.

[@NeilBooth]

Yeah nuclear artillery, thats the real power

[@pipebomber04]

Western media said russia has already ran out of ammunition, soldiers and morale a month ago

[@advancetotabletop5328]

No, Ivan. They said that Russia used up 1/3 of their military resources. But keep listening to what Putin says before you’re shipped off to the front lines. Learn to eat dog.

[@vdanger7669]

I'm here from the future. The answer is lots. Turned out the biggest constraints were on Ukraine and its western backers. Still trying to ramp up production slowly. Will be years long process.

[@MasterslayerG]

It's great how you do so much research to get the best estimate possible. Great channel.

[@PrestonStewart]

Great video, lots of good information here!

[@CovertCabal]

Thanks man! I appreciate it!

[@tunahxushi4669]

Wow, such an incredible video. I learned a lot, thank you for being so thorough and professional. A+ ...

[@starter0951]

Please double check anything you think you learned from that video.

[@Uncle_Samn]

Most of what said here is bullcrap!

[@HrPedrosak]

@@Uncle_Samn How do you know that for a fact? Explain

[@michaelhall7546]

@@Uncle_Samn hello Ivan

[@michaelhall7546]

@@tommyboman7735 hello comrade

[@ActuallyJamie]

The fact that you DON'T think Russia has mass stockpiles tells us that you highly underestimate them. What they have done so far is literally by textbook. Their warfare doctrine has remained the same send in weakest units first IE conscripts, old munitions etc. They have stockpiles still from the Cold War. Don't underestimate the enemy...

[@AlexanderTch]

Lol. Russia does not use conscripts in this operation at all. You just seriously damaged by your proapganda. Doctrine is about superiority in firepower. And that's the best approach cause it saves soldiers' lives. Artillery is God of War and it's massive usage reduce losses in Army. Russia uses the most modern munitions in this operation, guided shells, missiles, etc. OF course, when possible old munitions can be used instead. And it's not about stockpiles but about internal military production that your country does not have. Ukraine does not have any military production at all. That's why Russian losses are 10 times less than Ukrainian ones. Ukraine masively uses unprepared conscripts like you did in Vietnam. that's your normal approach.

[@ActuallyJamie]

@@AlexanderTch Up until 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea then Ukraine got their shit together and started doing joint operations with the US and other allies which has vastly improved their training which is why they've been able to hold out as long as they have. And yes Russia has been using conscripts from day 1.

[@ActuallyJamie]

@@AlexanderTch What propaganda might you exactly be referring to?

[@AlexanderTch]

@@ActuallyJamie You lie. Crimean people made their decision in 2014 on referendum. Go to Crimea and ask people there. UsA does not have proper experience and they didn't improve poor performance of Ukraine army. In 2015 Donbass miners, teachers, metallurgist, ,businessmen created militia and made a few shamefull defeats to Ukrianian army, so they ran away from Donbass and signed Minsk Treaty. And you lie. No coinscripts have ever been involved in this operation. Give me 5-7 of conscripts and from what place there were conscripted and also source of info.

[@ActuallyJamie]

@@AlexanderTch There's these things called books and history that generals from Russia have written, as well as intelligence gathering agencies, other service members from different countries that have also written books on the Russian way of war, their tactics etc. So I mean pick and choose, there are plenty out there. But the biggest teacher has been History. Observation even from the debacle going on now they are still doing combat the way they always have. It's not exactly rocket science here. Doesn't take a genius to put 2 and 2 together to see exactly how they are doing what it is they are doing the way they do it. Honestly could go into a library and do plenty of research. Actually read books from throughout history.

[@VitalityMassage]

Quite an impressive video. Thanks.

[@stansbruv3169]

You do hood work Covert Cabal. Thanks for creating this.

[@fakinlunatik3553]

if they managed to shell millions of germans back to berlin in 1945 how do you think they wouldnt be able to produce it now like you said russia is good at ammo production and has oil to deliver it

[@thinkerly1]

Hopefully we will stop them.

[@TheMagicJIZZ]

You know the west produced the Soviet military power? Supplied it? Artillery to trucks and guns

[@VintageWarfare]

@@thinkerly1 who’s we lol

[@arthurstefanski1300]

@@VintageWarfare everyone whose not a despicable ghoulish scumbag supporting imperialist invasion of Ukraine

[@theTutenstien]

So you are comparing 1945 tech to 2022? Sounds about right for Russia

[@Scronnoc]

Brilliant commentary! Please keep it up!

[@blaircolquhoun7780]

The burn rates of both Russian and Ukrainian artillery are both high. How about doing a video on how many artillery shells Ukraine has left?

[@hamzamahmood9565]

I never thought I would see a shortage of tanks and artillery shells become a major problem for a European superpower in 2022. This is like WW1 with a few Javelins and Bayrakhtars here and there. The strategy, tactics and the broader nature of fighting seems more primitive than even the second world war (which saw massive use of airpower)

[@vandeheyeric]

I went the other way. Honestly almost every country or faction throughout history really really underestimated the amount of material they need for a major, protracted war, with artillery shells being some of the worst hit. Couple that with war typically coming suddenly and production being outstripped by increased use and it becomes really common. Even WWII was not exempt. Though part of the issue re AirPower is how expensive and relatively small professional air forces are and how quite inexperienced Russian forces are with large scale, intricate air ops.

[@davidmurphy563]

Russia isn't a superpower. It's a regional power.

[@jong.7944]

The battle in Donetsk has been compared to a WW1 war of attrition... probably not with too much accuracy, but just read on the supply and logistics woes of WW1 for an example of how the demands of logistics in an artillery-heavy war of position can quickly become insane. That said, Russia is not now and never will run out of artillery shells... this is another laughable claim made in the PR war and spin that's being put out.

[@StrangerHappened]

Ukraine has called its army "the strongest in Europe" but even their baseless boasting did not include the "superpower" monicker. In case of Russia, of course, there is no shortage of tanks and artillery shells, they are in practically infinite supply.

[@NeuroScientician]

Russia removed itself from the list of superpowers about 4months ago :D

[@chriswareham]

I don't think artillery shells is Russia's biggest problem, rather it's the high rate of attrition amongst the systems that fire them. A lot Russia's artillery arsenal is in storage, which as could be seen in this video is mostly self-propelled howitzers parked up in the open (the same goes for their tank reserves). Most of that is likely seized up from corrosion or lacking parts from cannibalisation. It's often more costly to try and bring that kind of equipment back into service at current standards (remember, a 1980s T72 is not the same as a current production T72) than manufacturer new. And manufacturing is a big problem for Russia, since they don't produce a lot of the required specialist types of steel or high tech electronics domestically (advanced vision and targeting systems were sourced from France for example). Tank construction has shut down at their main construction facility due to this lack of raw material and components. This is where Ukraine can win in the long term, albeit at huge cost to a country so much smaller than Russia, since they are being supplied by a large number of countries with superior equipment already in serviceable condition. Russia seems to have thought that destroying stocks of Soviet era munitions in former Warsaw Pact countries would limit potential Ukrainian sources of munitions - a number of depots across Eastern Europe blew up under dubious circumstances in recent years. What the Russians weren't expecting, having got used to the passivity of NATO member states in the past, was how motivated those states would now be in supplying hardware. That hardware has proven to be devastating to tanks and armoured fighting vehicles that are defenceless against not only current Javelin and NLAW missiles, but even "last generation" anti-armour weapons like the ones supplied by Germany. Now with highly mobile and accurate systems like HIMARS from the US, Caesar from France and PzH 2000 from Germany, it's non longer about the wight of firepower because Russian logistics are at breaking point. One of these state of the art systems can knock out a munitions depot, rendering an entire regiment of Russian artillery inoperable from lack of ammunition.

[@useryggfdcc]

🤡

[@jukimv1986]

your assessment is great, don't listen to russian clowns

[@sonofagun3866]

Haha 😂 ucrynian army already won lol thnx 4 the comedy

[@Metanoia_Magna]

Add to this Polish Crabs (almost as good as PzH 2000) and Dana artilery, and it is even more true

[@xiputjingtin9069]

Potential conscripts may want to sabotage those russian factories. Even those guarding those factories might get sent to Ukraine. They mind as well sabotage what they're guarding.

[@BattalionCommanderMK]

Nice analysis.

[@bakerz129]

I'd say the number of rounds isn't an issue, just the ability to store them safely and get them to their guns.

[@utrian4148]

Good analysis! One side that was not given too much thought is the wearing out of artillery (tubes/vehicles). It gives an interesting metric. Western numbers applied, after ca. 5000 rounds a tube is worn out and needs replacement. If I take the biggest numbers of shells fired and the ones that Ukraine destroyed, I come up with about 100 artillery systems lost or to be maintenanced per week. Since an artillery system cannot be replaced that fast, this number limits the sustained fire power much more than ammunition. If Ukraine is constantly using its artillery for more precise strikes (likely will) they could eliminate the artillery advantage of russia over time. Even more if I assume, lot of russia's arms is coming from depots and stocks where maintenance lead to degradation over tens of years which will impact lifetime of an artillery tube immensely.

[@thc6664]

sure... ukraine are getting destroyd as we speak

[@yulusleonard985]

Just send more shells. Problem solved, no need for accurate shooting if you already outtube your enemy.

[@utrian4148]

@@yulusleonard985 Thanks for proving me right!

[@utrian4148]

@@thc6664 No, not really.

[@CovertCabal]

Thanks. And that's a good point. I originally had a few more lines about how often barrels need to be replaced, somewhere around 3,000 shells fired. But video was getting too long haha. Plus that'd be another day or two worth of research trying to figure out barrel production. I did think about losses and looked at Orxy site, but then figured the roughly 100 lost was a small enough fraction to not become a factor. Might in the future though.

[@ronaldchin3239]

Russia has huge artillery stockpiles and the ability to manufacture more. They are not likely to run out

[@johnwicked0723]

That is what the high military officials are saying to cover their corruption. In reality half of the budget had been stashed by ds officials. Just like the tires of their trucks that is made in China with the cost of just 25% of their intended budget.

[@ghostfacegrillah7891]

@@johnwicked0723 And yet they’re still beating the crap out of Ukraine and would conventionally flatten Europe even without Chinese help, so what does that say about those militaries that spend billions on their armies every year?

[@jeika4599]

They've been saying that shit months ago "russia running out of ammunitions" "russia running out missiles" "russia running out of tanks etc." But its the clown zelensky is the one who keeps begging every damn week for weapons in the west!

[@PippetWhippet]

@@ghostfacegrillah7891 Russia couldn’t even beat Finland conventionally, let alone the whole of Europe!

[@LuciferMorningStar-hj5kn]

@@PippetWhippet not sure if u r alien or what Maybe brainwashed by nato and us propaganda

[@perakojotgenije]

If the British say that Russia will run out of ammunition or missiles, then we believe them, just as we believe them that Russia is fighting the ashes because of the lack of weapons🤦🤣🤦🤣😂

[@not_your_business666]

6 months down, the answer is probably never. They are more likely to shoot out their barrels and run out of logistics trucks to bring more shells to the frontline.

[@KenshiroPlayDotA]

6:19 : What's the conversion between the number of fires in Ukraine (in arty range) to the number of estimated arty rounds fired per week ? It seems to be simply about 250 shells per fire, which begs some questions : 1) What's the source for that ratio ? 2) How reliable is that ratio ? Shouldn't fires depend on what is being hit and whether recent weather was dry and hot ? 3) Are the fires counted only on the Ukrainian side of the frontline, so as not to count fires created by Ukrainian artillery ?

[@Snagabott]

1) I agree with you that there are questions to the numbers estimated. I understand him to have used the base seems to be an estimate by Alex Vershinin at RUSI, which estimated shell expenditure from reported number of fire missions. Clearly, even if the reported number of fire missions is honestly reported, the number of guns involved are not necessarily accurate, nor are the number of shells fired per gun per mission. 2) Yes, the number of fires caused per shell fired will vary greatly depending on weather. 3) I think that one would be fairly easy to control for, since they aren't counting individual flashes or impacts, but a fire started by an impact. I appreciate his attempt at estimating the shell numbers, but the error bars are fairly large here.

[@KenshiroPlayDotA]

@@Snagabott I think I get how the ratio was derived. Alex Vershinin's article at RUSI, The Return of Industrial Warfare, uses Russian MoD figures for the number of fire missions, and guesses it's 16 shells per fire mission. Then it's a matter of estimating how many fires FIRMS can detect over a week and compare with the number of Russian MoD fire missions and 16 shells per fire mission. For example, for the week from May 20 till 26, there were 4074 fire missions. FIRMS data for that period has about 220 fires within arty range, so about 18.5 fire missions per fire detected. Assuming 2/3 of those fire missions are from tube arty, and one would get about (4074/220)*(2/3)*16 = 43456 shells fired, while Covert Cabal gives 48-49K. I guess CC used a larger period for his data to derive the ratio of fire missions per FIRMS detected fire, and guessed 2/3 of fire missions were tube arty with 16 shells per fire mission. Note for the time period above, that would mean about 197 shells per FIRMS fire. It also means 50-60K Russian shells fired each day is likely a vast overestimate, or the Russian MoD greatly understates the number of its fire missions and/or Vershinin greatly underestimates the average number of shells per fire mission. Leedrake5 also collects various data points on GitHub, and from FIRMS data, the total radiative power was about 150-200MW in the Donbas region in the second half of May, while June has several spikes above 500MW, and July even got a spike above 3500MW before collapsing to nearly zero. Note some of those fires may have been Ukrainian strikes on ammo dumps, but it also means 50-60K Russian shells on a single day may be possible with those insane spikes, albeit occasionally. Still, with an average of somewhere around 10-20K (I guess) shells fired per day since the beginning of the war, and something of the order of 1K Russian tubes used, we're talking at day 140 of the 3-day war of an average of 1400-2800 shells fired per tube so far. Which means the barrels are likely at or close to their end of life, with accuracy and range losses when the barrel is excessively eroded. The M777 is regularly quoted as having a 2500-round barrel life, though it's unclear if it's the average or the equivalent full charge metric.

[@stoxxpapi]

i think its more like 50.000 shells a day

[@muninrob]

Having have trekked across some tundra in Alaska, the Russian love of mechanized forces makes good sense - you're not towing anything through a very large part of their territory for a very large part of the year. (Mud's too deep in the summer, snow's too deep in the winter)

[@peterbutlin6166]

Excellent work once again!

[@feet9100]

Very interesting insight 👍

[@slooob23]

Artillery shells are the easiest, most cost effective munitions to manufacture. Russia is not going to run out of shells (or barrels). This sort of weaponry has been around forever, there is nothing complicated about it.

[@killman369547]

I also doubt whether they'll run out of more sophisticated guided missiles as they undoubtedly have many thousands of missiles in random ammo dumps around Russia. I remember seeing a video way way back in the ye olden days of youtube of a Russian ammo dump with missiles in their storage containers pretty much as far as the eye could see.

[@GanymedeXD]

@@killman369547 They already ran out of many forms of guided missiles a while ago … pilots complained in intercepted communication that they have no guided missiles and hence must use unguided missiles in jets and helicopters increasing the risk of them being shot down … big Russian problem is that more sophisticated equipment did not enter mass production … as they acquired chips and high end parts from France other countries the production of a lit of gear slowed down like the Armata set for delivery in 2025 … but they will not run out of shells … Ukraine rather runs out of soldiers first …

[@andrerothweiler9191]

Yes but how quickly can you produce them? Probably not as fast

[@Patop2002]

@@andrerothweiler9191 They can. Artillery is about the most cheap piece of heavy equipment you can manufacture. Is just a bigger tank cannon, without all the things that take time to produce for a tank.

[@andrerothweiler9191]

@@Patop2002 I am not sure about this, only one company in Russia can do barell and they have like 2 machines I Believe

[@stanislaskowalski7461]

Expecting that your enemy will run out of ammunition is a good way to run out of men. Always assume that they have enough bullets and shells to kill you.

[@Carewolf]

Unless you have them surrounded and cut off from supplies.

[@timbrwolf1121]

Correct me if I am wrong. Isn't there a newer and older 152mm round and they are not the same or compatible? Wouldn't that skew the numbers as well? I don't believe the D20 can fire the new rounds for the Koalitsiya and vice versa.

[@akunamatata1515]

It is interesting to watch this after a year 😉 Still bombing

[@rr24]

Dayummm. Stumbled upon this channel as it was on my recommended feed. Extremely impressed at the presentation of numbers and figures with a healthy dose of dialogue in explaining such stats. So impressed, i subbed. Great work!

[@davidmoss2576]

WTF are you talking about, this is nothing more than wild guesses. They been saying Russia is running out of ammo for months but they keep firing more and more everyday. Its like reality no longer matters to Western audience.

[@davedavidson8892]

Good channel but be wary of the comment section. These comments have turned quite toxic since the Ukraine ward kicked off,

[@davidmoss2576]

@@davedavidson8892 Yes wanting accurate information is soooooo toxic.

[@davedavidson8892]

@@davidmoss2576 he's giving the best estimates a civilian can obtain while pointing out knowledge shortcomings.

[@ryanbernard9320]

@@davidmoss2576 are you providing any information at all? If so, where can I watch it?;

[@krossbolt4100]

Wow, excellent video and analysis. Thank you so much. It's hard to get an accurate picture of this war unless you are one of the combatants. This really helps.

[@ichodernicht8131]

One question came to mind watching this: If I understood you correctly, you estimated the number of Russian shells based on the Soviet Union's stockpile. However, did you take into account how much of that would have remained outside of the Soviet Union after its fall? For example in Ukraine?

[@johnbrooks7144]

In Transnistria, Moldova for example. Which is determined to remain an ally of Russia regardless of the Moldovan government kissing NATO ass.

[@BrutusAlbion]

@@johnbrooks7144 John Brooks? Hmmm? Generic as fuck english name but supports Russia? Hello Russian bot, how much you getting paid by pappa Putin? Get me that sweet sweet Rubel money :)

[@colinbousfield5542]

During the battle of deville wood during WWI the South African brigade were getting over 400 shells a minute hitting them on a tiny piece of ground which they held. One of the toughest battles in history.

[@RobWhittlestone]

Great video, I love these plausibility estimates. As a physicist and IT guy, reasonable estimates are a key tool to check results of our calculations. Jon Bentley's "Programming Pearls" books illustrate this with an ad-hoc example of 'How much water flows down the Mississippi?" question. The answer is not necessarily correct (and varies seasonally of course) but based on intelligent guesstimates and observation gets certainly to within -50%, +30% (my figures) of reality - the ballpark is definitely identified.

[@redrust3]

Within Russia, railroads are the primary form of transportation, which are relatively immune to their severe cold weather conditions. Unfortunately, they say move into Ukraine, the railroad networks become vulnerable, and distribution near the front line is done by trucks. Whether it’s ammunition or fuel, it has to be transferred to a truck at some point, which are perfect fodder for precision anti-armor missiles like Javelins, NLAWs and even RPGs. Given that NATO is supplying satellite information to Ukraine, as well as an abundance of drones, it’s impossible to drive a truck anywhere without being seen. Once you’ve seen, you’re a target!

[@JA-pn4ji]

I would say both sides have that problem. Russia has been consistently targetting Ukrainian fuel and ammunition dumps. It boils down to which side is the more successful in disrupting the supply lines of the other.

[@Redsauce101]

"Javelins, NLAWs and even RPGs" would require 20 miles on foot across the almost completely flat pontic steppe to find a convoy to attack in the first place.

[@islandwills2778]

Javelins and nlaws lack the range to be a real threat on the current battlefield except in city fighting. And it seems Russia has a new strategy for cities. Artillery strikes until the city is basically gone.

[@bladeofveng]

@@islandwills2778thats been their strategy since the start did you not see mariupol?

[@einfachnurleo7099]

Then again depending on the distance they can cover as well as how close the trains get to the front line if you are able to destroy or damage rail tracks you are also slowing them down. Not to mention that might leave an opening to attack the train / blow it up.

[@TravnickaRobija]

70-80 years of stockpiles. Small percentage of that is unusable. Even so they have enough for a decade of war at least.

[@greggapowell67]

Very good analysis.

[@aksmex2576]

One of the few people that does research and brings forth evidence without taking sides. It is impressive.

[@ateliahibiscus6039]

Ehhhh, his estimate of consumption being below 8k is insane, considering we've literally seen a massive quantity advantage in active fire missions on the Russian side. 17-18k is likely. The vide is otherwise solid.

[@blitzmalcolm]

Where is the evidence?

[@darkobubonja]

@@ateliahibiscus6039 The video is bull. There is no shortage. Shells are being produced daily by the thousands. Also the equipment to fire said shells.

[@tomf4087]

it's not as easy as just make shells, fire shells. It's bit more complicated than that.

[@JohnDoe-gk5xj]

🙏👍

[@zakariyamohamed9035]

The war subject aside i would like of us to appreciate the amount of work put into these videos. It's really humbling to do this much with so little

[@serhiizhuk7430]

Jeez I can't imagine how much time you spent on these research and video. Well done

[@bahaiwebsites]

Good original research!

[@Quondom]

I have read that Russian road transport capacity is inadequate to supply a division more than 90 miles from a railhead. The initial attempt to encircle Kyiv, which stalled at about this distance, would tend to confirm it. Now that the Russian advance is dependent on heavy artillery bombardment, the problem is compounded: In order to advance the next few miles, it is necessary to build up a forward supply base, which is time consuming, and then you need another one for the next advance, which can only proceed in stages. The introduction of HIMARS attacks on Russian forward supply bases will slow down these incremental advances, perhaps stop them altogether. The further the Russians advance, the more fragile their supply chain becomes.

[@MasterBlaster3545]

You are reading western propaganda.

[@phunkracy]

That may be true, but the same applies to Ukraine, which has to move their supplies through entire length of the country, all the while Russia has more or less air dominance and cruise missiles. Also UA can't target railways in Russia while Russia can target railroad infrastructure in Ukraine.

[@YAZIDLEMRABET]

keep coping boy, i remember western analyst saying russia will run out of ammo by the first month of the war, guess that was very wrong as russia literally destroying ukranians by the dozens in the east, lisichansk and severdonetsk fell, next will be bakhmut and sloviansk and the train will keep rolling

[@lancerevo9747]

You have read wrong.

[@speedyv6247]

you should stop reading por Ukrainian sources then.

[@warriorson7979]

A typical production facility can make about 500 artillery shells per day, so if Russia has 10 such facilities operating, they can make 1.5 million new shells per year. Usually obtaining/making TNT and fuzes will be the limiting factor, meaning it could be as few as 500 000 per year.

[@dylanc9174]

Does Russia have 10 facilities? I heard 1-2.

[@richardkudrna7503]

@@dylanc9174 Agree.

[@dylanc9174]

@Steve Arthur How do we know this 10% number? It can't be across the board. It's not like Russia has as much other equipment as it has artillery. Russia has used maybe 25-50% of their working tank stalk. We've seen photos of almost 1000 different tanks. Russia is using what they have. They may not be able to do a full mobilisation, but they are running out of some equipment with this many losses. And it's not that they run out of artie around, it's that they will run out of them on the front lines. They consume a fuckload of rounds, it takes a fuckload of trucks they likely don't have to refill the demand of upwards of 60,000 rounds a day plus the 100,000s of rounds Ukraine is destroying a day.

[@Jl-lq5en]

@@dylanc9174 total military is much larger than tank forces. Evidence shows they use maybe 20% total of their military overall, more like 15%

[@dylanc9174]

@@Jl-lq5en But you have to take away the percentage that Russia absolutely needs in order to secure the border. They can't use 90% of their military because they need to secure the border and secure government buildings. I'm sure Russia has a lot of stockpile, but if they properly equipped their soldiers with their new equipment some of it would have run out by now. They'd be using cold war era equipment, bulky and ineffective in some cases.

[@MyDogmatix]

Fantastic, Thank you!

[@arkhitek2251]

I was on the M777 howitzer when I was in the Army. Fun times.

[@alanwareham7391]

In the Napoleonic wars the Austrians had a similar idea being that as the muskets were slow to load and add to that the problems of keeping black powder dry etc you could use air guns with the advantage that each round that could hold pressurised air for 3 rounds but the problem was the time to pump these up to pressure however they realised that this could be done by civilians,the wounded, prisoners etc and then they could be transported to the battlefield by horse and cart but it was then they found the problem that stopped them in their tracks because the constant use of carts over the same fields soon reduced them into an uncrossable quagmire it has also been quoted but not proved that Napoleon considered these weapons as weapons of cowards and anyone caught using one was to be executed for cowardice

[@nickgoodwood4812]

Interesting.

[@bossdog1480]

Always makes sense to attack the supply lines with small groups of specialists.

[@Bee.Holder]

Too many action movies?

[@lumberjackagies5158]

Untill you realise you need a supply line of your own and these missions deep into enemy lines are generally one way suicide missions.

[@imrekalman9044]

Always makes sense to protect the supply lines from small groups of specialists.

[@obiwankenobi3574]

@@imrekalman9044 which is what Russia has failed spectacularly to do.

[@okakokakiev787]

Which regularly appear as corpses in Russian telegram channels

[@geiers6013]

The US does not need much artillery, because in their war they always have one huge advantage: complete air superiority and the ability to actually use it for close air support and strategic bombing of nearly all important targets. They are able to sustain hundreds of air strikes per day for months or even years.

[@olafspetzki]

I am not sure, but the first think that happens with old rifle ammo is that it looses accuracy due to degradation of the powder, so I suggest that could be true for old artillery ammo as well. That may not result in less collateral damage but it could increase the survivability of the ukrainian forces.

[@razhok9725]

Russia was meant to run out of missiles 100 days ago so

[@vulgarisopinio]

But they are slowing down, didn’t you notice?

[@thinkerly1]

They have obviously run out of some. Why shoot anti-ship missiles from the Caspian Sea?

[@vulgarisopinio]

@@thinkerly1 Actually from Crimea. And why not - every war is a testing ground.

[@nickkerr8775]

Russia is not one who keeps retreating and its troops are not the ones deserting and refusing to fight because of to many casualties and a lack of food and supplies. 3 to 5 thousand dead Ukraine solders a week ,

[@PippetWhippet]

Ah, the “Kviv was a planned diversion” brigade have showed up.

[@advancetotabletop5328]

Are the Ukrainians eating dog and burning their own corpses in the fields?

[@DansBuddhaBodega]

Going thru ammunition takes a while when your weapons keep getting destroyed. The more likely scenario, would be them running out of weapons to use that ammo.

[@BillMorganChannel]

My friend in Viet Nam had the duty of going to fire bases and measuring the muzzle velocity of out going shells.