How markets historically react in election years

Wall Street is returning to an overly bearish sentiment in late 2024, but is this actually a contrarian signal when heading into the US presidential election? BofA Securities Chief Equity Technical Strategist Stephen Suttmeier sits down with Josh Lipton and Seana Smith on Market Domination to discuss where the market (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) could be seeing some resistance with less than 70 days until the election.
"The difference between a normal year and an election year, presidential election year is you tend to get a strong summer rally, which we've gotten this year, June, July, into August, and that typically sets up a little bit of a pullback or consolidation in September and October," Suttmeier tells Yahoo Finance. "So you got marginally negative average returns... -0.46% average in September in election years, And -0.34 in October. So you have a little bit of a pause a little bit of pullback. And that typically precedes a rally into year-end after the election, a relief rally.
Suttmeier also comments on the technicals for small-cap stocks (^RUT) and seasonality indicators that could be signaling an S&P 500 (^GSPC) correction.
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