How Much You'll Lose Opening Topps Definitive-100 Box Rip Test

[@ajjameson154]

Love this type of breakdown. More people need to see this and realize the truth.

[@Blabbin_Bout_Slabbin]

It is crazy to actually see the returns on opening wax laid out like this.

[@luke_mma_love]

And thats on ebay so deduct 10-33% depending on how you pay you taxes

[@rs500gsoat]

The problem isn’t the product itself but the outrageous prices the boxes go for. The best era for me was the 1997-2010 era in which boxes were generally affordable and you could get some value.

[@richiecook2305]

The prices are definitely the main problem. My other gripe though is the insanely large checklists. This was the first year I haven’t purchased bowman draft in 15 years. 500 bucks with 101 player autos on the checklist?! Ugh hard pass.

[@JonClegg2002]

THANK YOU, it's insane! Even if you want to get your little ones into the hobby, most CAN'T. It really sux what they have done to the hobby.

[@wheelman0799]

It was good all thr way to 2018

[@JZF629]

That’s part of it. The real problem with these sets are the fact that the “limited” & “rare” HOF signers sign for these expensive sets every single year. So they have tons of cards from expensive sets already out there that aren’t selling, so they’re easy to find if you want them, and they won’t cost you $2600 to get them, lmao. They need to make these super expensive sets a once or twice a decade type of set. Make supply scarce. Then singles will have value again.

[@robertarnold7187]

The "investors" and others hoarding boxes and cases aren't helping us either. I've been collecting since 77 and took a break during the 90's. The grading scam and high box prices have driven me away.

[@randyranderson5122]

Thank you for your dedication and commitment to the hobby! The ONLY hobby boxes that I can afford are basically Topps Baseball - Flagship series 1,2 and update. I also like to open A&G. I missed out on A&G X this year because it was only sold directly from Topps website, and it sold out right away because of the "flippers," who only want to make money, bought it all up and immediately listed it on eBay for 2x-3x price! I only mentioned this because of my hatred of those "flipper" scum, ruining the hobby! My point, finally, is Thanks, Scottie, for opening boxes that are Way too expensive for me.🎉

[@dero0808]

There was a bunch of Topps exclusives I tried to buy this year that sold out as I was in the middle of checking out … like all within 30 min of them going live.

[@Blabbin_Bout_Slabbin]

Thanks for the shout-out, Scott! I was glad to be able to help. While so many of the cards looked really cool, it was quite eye-opening to see the relatively low prices they were getting at auction! Definitely not a product to open if you are looking for a decent ROI. Great video, and can't wait to see this breakdown for other products!

[@chefchrissell]

Always putting out the heaters my guy. You’re a master of your craft and the reason I’m back to enjoying baseball cards again. I was just basketball and football for years. Your info is amazing. Keep up the good work

[@TheProfessorsDugout]

This product was great when it was ~$800-1200 a box a few years back and the financials (phenomenal job as always BTW on your analysis) would make more sense. I did get in one case break (6-spot hit draft style) and didn't come close to what I paid (no one did). Then I went online and bought 3 cards (Riley Green Auto, Garrett Mitchell Auto, and a RPA) for way less than what a single card would cost in the break. Can't wait to grab some cards from Diamond Icons if they ever release it.

[@rickyboyd5315]

Dynasty when it was around 250 back in the day now I think its like 800 a box

[@Blabbin_Bout_Slabbin]

Singles hunting is absolutely the way to go with this product.

[@NomahsSportsCards]

Another great video Scott. Love your stuff and EVERY video is worth watching!

[@RunGoodLife]

If you did the same product analysis with Flawless baseball, NT Basketball & Football, and even throw Diamond Icons in there too I think you’d find Definitive smokes them in ROI. $977 (50%) back average is in reality a really good return across a product run at any level, not just high end. That’s the reality of the hobby today with singles not scaling with box prices. Great content and breakdown overall. I do think that you should count every card in the box, even the ones you think no one wants. As a COMC power seller, I assure you there is a buyer for every card, especially Definitive game used mems.

[@mattlovesbaseball]

Thumbnail is among your best work yet 😂

[@jasonnorm]

Amen. Bought 1 box and pulled an Acuna gold framed auto relic /10 and STILL lost money on the box. Should be $1000 box AT MOST

[@jsssportscardcollectibles3626]

Junk auto era is real. There are just thousands of, for example, Wade Boggs autos. Same players (Molitor, Jenkins, etc.) every year so shouldn't be a shock that the value just isn't there anymore.

[@waruv]

Yep. Ultimately there are so many choices for autos of almost every player in these products that if someone wants one, it's very easy to find a great card at a price products like these can't sustain

[@marksheehan1332]

I bought a Dennis Eckersly auto from Tribute this year for $8....WHAT!?? That's cheaper than seeing him at a show. (Same to be said about many other HOFers too!) I don't get this money hustling hobby anymore.

[@JB511391]

Great breakdown. Would love to see more of these

[@Krysdavar]

Thanks for putting this together Scott, great information! All I know is Randy Johnson has a nice auto. Kudos to him for signing his name so pretty. 🤣 Also, Oh Look...Rutschman has the same picture as his flagship in this product. 😴💤💤

[@bgutty5945]

I seen Layton pulled a ohtani 1/1 golden redemption. The redemption card itself is made out of 100 grams of gold. It says on the card that u will receive a special card that is autographed with a piece of batting glove and hat that is 1/1. I didnt even see it on the checklist. It's like a willy Wonka golden ticket.

[@Eaglesfan220]

When I was big into Breaks I actually did well buying spots in these a few years ago, Did really good taking the Cardinals since they were mid tier price and had alot of hits.

[@coopstain1728]

Have any Pujols rookie cards for sale?

[@Eaglesfan220]

@@coopstain1728 I did. Long gone though, Sorry.

[@JeffreyBeckerPhotographs]

Scottie - great work as always. Is it worth noting that the valuation here is prone to only current market value, as of late-Nov/early Dec? The product is released during perhaps the worst month for baseball card values, overall. Thus looking at November and December comps can be painful. Imagine if Topps released this product in early March as spring training is in full swing and opening day is at peak excitement. Something to consider? Perhaps consumers of this product should wait to sell their singles as opening day 2024 approaches, especially the rookie cards. Selling during the heat of the NFL and NBA seasons is almost always a no-win proposition.

[@johnm1008]

Awesome video. It's a great time for collectors to buy cards like these

[@protodg6567]

That's why I just buy graded singles now. It's an investment instead of a gamble.

[@TravelingNomad100]

Love the breakdown not shocked at all the card companies have got so greedy I just seek out individual cards I want now its a waste of money to rip products these days.

[@ghometown9239]

Solid analysis and evaluation - best wishes!

[@jasonabernethy8424]

Paul Molitor auto with bat for $18. That is nuts. I pay a tun more for 18 year old prospects every day!

[@timothyphelps427]

Great info and breakdown.

[@HitItDeep5]

Scottie you are the best in the hobby!

[@teddo997]

thanks Scottie thats a lot of work. Do Definitive sealed boxes go up or down over time?

[@ZiggyNo]

Always appreciate your hustle. However what about calculating the hits and value for teams in 100 cases? Like is Arizona hit 50%. Do you make more money with Os or Rangers in 100 cases? You realize people don’t buy 100 cases but they do buy teams in cases. That would be interesting to review

[@Philly_Joe]

Thanks for the awesome analysis. My thinking is that most "breaks" by an individual will only produce an average of about 30-35% return in value the year a product is opened - steadily dropping yearly. These $2k+ boxes are no different than a $120 box, a $250 65 box, or a blaster - been this way for years. I now only purchase on demand products with known print runs and only buy looking for specific players in those runs - everything else is secondary market of players I like. A lot of products are cool....but I can watch breaks for enjoyment/anticipation of what is opened.

[@warrendinCLE]

Merry Christmas Mike!

[@jasonabernethy8424]

Varitek was the heart and soul of the red sox team that won the first world series. Fisk was the heart and soul of a team that fell short waiving the ball fair in a legendary walk off. 2 of the greatest catches in Red Sox history. Not sought after in the hobby, but a cool card for long term red sox fans.

[@joesmith-es1zy]

But Varitek is only of interest to Red Sox fans, his stats don't match up very well with Hall of Famers like Carlton Fisk.

[@jasonabernethy8424]

You correct, his stats dont match up. But when you crack A-rod in the jaw, thats worth 500 HR's to Red Sox fans.@@joesmith-es1zy

[@coreypersky927]

Scottie, you do a fantastic job. When I saw the title, I was thinkin to myself, okay, when did this dude start slingin for the Cartel? When did Topps exactly decide that it was a good idea to print cards of Veterans?

[@joesmith-es1zy]

I would rather have a veteran autograph then some rookie nobody's ever heard of and never will.

[@Philmington]

Man, if money was no object… damn this set looks kinda fun 🤩

[@stormz1243]

Also worth noting that some of the breakers get juiced boxes. So if you go to the local store and get a box your odds are lower than if you have a popular stream opening cards

[@tyrithofmuse]

Topps has the HOF guys signing CONSTANTLY now. If you want a Larry Walker auto, you have so many releases in Definitive, Chrome Black, Gilded Collection, etc just from the last 3-4 years to choose from. They've seriously diluted the value of what should be pretty cool cards in this high-end sets due to collective overprinting.

[@boman9313]

I got a varitek and Fisk dual auto /10 and it’s sick. Varitek is a Boston legend.

[@PrimalKatnanaQuotes]

Thanks for the awesome vid!

[@dr.gaberosenthal5319]

I was thinking exactly that! $15-1,600 is about right. Product looks amazing but it’s brutally priced. How many cut autos did you see out off all 100 plus breaks?

[@mackymintle7806]

A lot of work…to come to the obvious conclusion. 😂 Stop buying new products…win.

[@lethbridge79]

Scottie, I thought you were going to rip 100 Definitive Boxes. C’mon man!! Maybe next year, lol

[@sepasportscards]

Good content!

[@trejle]

What I’ve learned is that if I’m going to open higher-end product, it will be to PC whatever is pulled. Other than a few exceptions, there isn’t much difference in aftermarket value between low-end and high-end products.

[@turbogears900]

I received a bag filled with 100 80s baseball card with Autograph, and I dnt know how to check the value

[@stephenripley9673]

Nice work

[@Wonkzzilla]

How is it compared to Diamond Icons?

[@benharddin6630]

🎉 nice video

[@BCNeil]

A whole group of TOPPS workers going to come to your home, drag you into street.

[@jonsmith479]

It is INSANE to me that most autos, even of HOF or very good players, go for so little if they aren't rookie cards. Why would I pay like $1000 for a Witt rookie auto if I can get a second year for so little.

[@ryanra44]

I think 2023 bowman’s best is the best bang for your Buck this year for baseball. 4 autos and presale price is as $294 after tax. That is under $75 per auto. Not that many topps products are under $75 per auto with a checklist with all the top prospects and top veterans

[@burno7799]

Serious question. Does everyone open boxes to sell all the cards? Like I open stuff and hope for a couple super cool cards. I already spent the money so the cards are mine. Anything I sell is going to buy a card or box I want to open and repeat the process. I guess I wouldn't buy a Definitive box because $2000 is stupid. I'd rather buy 2 Trout PSA 10s if I was trying to get paid down the road. But generally speaking I wouldn't open anything if I was concerned about the ROI. They basically all lose.

[@joesmith-es1zy]

Mike Trout rookies are dropping like crazy lately.

[@rsuriyop]

Basically, all super premium products like Definitive, Transcendent, Dynasty, and so on are seen as big gambles. Just as they've always been. For me personally, I will never touch any of these boxes even with a nine-foot pole. It's better (not to mention, safer) just to go after certain singles from these types of products instead.

[@spitzer1113]

As long as people(breakers) keep buying these overpriced sets then Topps will keep happily printing them(money). But the good thing about people buying and opening these sets is that they are helping supply the singles market. I just couldn't justify spending $2K for a 5% chance at breaking even.

[@marioblaauw5760]

Great Video...

[@661fish4]

The only person who truly wins after a break is the breaker. When will people quit throwing money at breakers?

[@jimmason2080]

Scottie B the voice of reason within the so-called Hobby!

[@Yankee1469]

This is NOT a product meant for any regular collector to open by themselves, this was produced for breakers. Same goes for National treasures or any other high end product. This is the new format unfortunately.

[@kittykitty2712]

Interesting video

[@rockiesinoctober]

Definitively a gamble!

[@TheHonestTruth]

Do yall collevt just to make money? Or do y'all, every few days or so, take a seat, pour a drink, and appreciate the stories behind the players, and the cards in your collection? When i look at my cards, it takes me back in life. Ive had then for a while amd i routinely re categorize. Yall are in tbis purely for profit which is why these companies will and should continue to raise prices on you all. This isn't a get rich scheme

[@vendora1]

opening a box of this is like driving a new car off the lot 50% depreciation off the get cuz varitek is a one of the best catchers in red sox history and the fight with arod adds to the lore also varitek one of only 3 players i believe that has won a little league chip a college chip and a ws chip

[@michaelacton6246]

Correction you have to sell the cards to make money. It's a lose until you get your money back and more. Unless you collect for fun then that's different

[@ericb3186]

Seems like a lot of products you return 20 cents on the dollar. To get half your money back on a median price tells me these boxes aren’t falling in value soon. I don’t know where people get the $ to rip this stuff though.

[@JohnMiller-jj9kx]

Come on Topps! Give us value, not just over priced product that becomes a break of common stuff! Do better!

[@sharpie0226]

Sure glad I'm not worried about prices.. just collect.

[@supersnappahead]

This sort of goes without saying, but if you like to rip, you should assume a loss every time. It's part playing the game. You're going to lose...a lot. If that's a problem, then you shouldn't rip and should focus on singles where you get exactly what you want every time. I love ripping as much as the next guy, but I don't do it very often because I hate that feeling of "wow, I just wasted money". so I buy singles and I enjoy the hobby a lot more now and my collection looks a lot better for it.

[@jeffgo5742]

Nailed it. If you buy a box thinking you’re gonna make money, I have bridge in Brooklyn to sell you

[@JZF629]

This should be a “once in a decade” set. This issue is there are SO MUCH of all these autos & patches in previous years that the cards & autos aren’t scarce. If you want a chipper jones or Derek jeter auto, they aren’t gonna be hard to find. If Fanatics’s wants their new products to have any kind of value they absolutely need to drop about 20 sets, and make some only available every few years or so. You wonder why Ohtani autos carry so much value? It’s because he barely signs, and everyone wants an auto of his. Supply vs demand. Fanatics thinks they need to print more product to satiate the demand of the public. But that’s only because 75% of it goes to breakers. They don’t need to print sets with 3 million total base cards and 30 different parallels. Just make a set that’s 67% smaller, sell it to hobby shops & card places at a set MSRP to let the normal public have a shot at purchasing, with breakers getting a crack at the product only after we get a shot first. If you want to give the breakers something to break, make two or three sets for breakers only every year, then they’ll have something to break as well. That will help the value of singles.

[@adambye2531]

I think the product is cool but it is a no brainer to just grab some singles.

[@PERC_ANGLE.96]

Thats why i only buy single cards. The card hobby has turned into the sneakers game. I only P/C 4 people Acuna, Soto, Albies, Gunnar

[@82mprosen]

Doing God's work here, thanks man

[@PropiaPersona]

You have to grade to make your money back and thats another gamble

[@tubenachos]

I stick to flagship because that's all I can afford 😂😭😭

[@aarondavies6823]

Great vid. The hobby is in a tough spot right now. Disposable income is tight or non-existent for the working class, the market is flooded with product/parallels/autos, and with a few exceptions, the game/hobby's biggest stars have cheated, broke the law, been injured etc. This is just a breaker's game at this point. Bounties, chase cards etc. It's always been a game of chance but it's overtly gambling now.

[@bennybreaks702]

Topps has too much out there. Teir One, Definitive, Black Chrome, Brooklyn, Museum, Inception, Gilded, Sterling, Tribute, Xpecrations outside of the nomal, chrome, stadium club, prestine, and finest. They're watering down their own autos and hits with all these releases.

[@Sir_Osis]

The prices of boxes are way too expensive across the board. If breakers stopped buying all the boxes, Fanatics would be forced to lower prices.

[@ThreeLions82]

Paul Molitor auto for 18 bucks? jesus

[@FlyingSkyy]

This set is for giga gamblers who are realistically only opening for the high of possibly getting the last 1of1 babe and shohei since one has already been opened.

[@OpinionatedFanboy]

This is going to be painful to watch :)

[@danbradley3294]

It looks to be about the same as ripping anything else. Regardless of how fancy or low-end a product is, if you open it you're not going to make money or break even really. If you're not doing it for fun you'll be disappointed.

[@custum18]

These modern guys just have so many autos. Even some of the older players are signing like crazy. Topps has 10x'd autos. No way autos hold value like they used to.

[@jay_local_hits]

Yaz has a 96.5 Career WAR, an MVP, a Triple Crown, 18 x All Star, 7 x Gold Glove, and 3 batting titles.

[@scottiebcards2354]

I am not questioning Yaz. I am wondering why Varitek is paired with Yaz on a dual auto. Yaz is an all time great and Varitek had 24.2 war. Varitek is the one I was saying didn't deserve it.

[@RB-tp8hv]

At this point, anybody buying a box is doing so because they enjoy the thrill of ripping wax. There can't be many serious people left who buy boxes expecting to make money.

[@wadestclair249]

That would be 3.02 boxes per case???? 🤦

[@smitjimmers144]

All cuz of breakers…and people wasting thousands of dollars for O’Neal cruzes, James outmans, Todd hollandsworths etc make things even worse…

[@kinell188]

Wow. This is actually disgusting findings. The shocking comps you showed on the cards demonstrates how oversaturated the market is with sets and parallels. Topps laughing all the way to the bank. They are so fortunate their customer base is big on gambling and not financially literate.

[@rickm6232]

I don't get why they don't want people buy there products to make money? Is there that mush overhead on making a card? Getting an auto or relic? One bat makes over 7,700 bat relics. I haven't bought a box since 2018. i'm done! Great video!

[@whatshappeningwithmychange3089]

The secondary market is flooded with these autos. Tops is ruining the hobby for all of us

[@brandonabel5662]

The market is bad for cards and a lot of it has to do with the post office. No one is going to sell cards back-and-forth over the border when they’re demanding so much money out of a single card envelope cost $12 just a ship at one single card. No one wants to pay these duties, plus everyone takes a cut of the cut of everything when it gets shipped. It’s just not worth it anymore. Plus the market is definitely gone down. No one can afford groceries let alone cards right now.

[@pickzkickz]

Way too many cards produced. Wayyy...at this point who doesnt have a one of one.

[@dacryptkeeper6836]

Better get used to being ripped off! There is NO incentive to lower prices when Fanatics holds all of the licenses for sports cards . . . and that's NOT taking into account all of the problems recently!

[@joesmith-es1zy]

That's why we are supposed to stop companies from forming monopolies in America, but no one seems to be doing anything about it.

[@dacryptkeeper6836]

@@joesmith-es1zy Tell me about it! At the rate it's going, this will be a hobby for the rich only within the next year or so!!!

[@RandomEsports1]

baseball cards going down. trust me

[@jeffgo5742]

In prices. The hobby will always be there. Good thing is I can get good single cards for cheap

[@sportscardswithq7603]

This product is a biggest scam! Over $2,300USD for a box is ridiculous and just as bad as the chasers that buy into these breaks for over $250 a sport in a box of 8 cards. 90-95% of the time you will never recoup the money spent. Its better just to buy the single that you want for a quarter of the price for a spot most of the time.

[@henrys3629]

Losing 500-1k is not fun.

[@jasoncole4089]

Sports card companies have turned the hobby into crap. It's nothing more than a lottery

[@fatmirsejdini5992]

The 1% will make 10$

[@L_e_d_89]

More proof the hobby is mostly full of gambling. Once a player is known quantity (hof but not a legend) they are dust to hobbyists. They still want ohtani and trout because they “still could be legends”

[@dom19945]

Why tf are people paying for this?

[@stevezeppieri]

Jesus

[@jeremyheyman8952]

How much will you lose? Answer is all of it lmao

[@michaelroot1960]

You always lose your shirt ripping wax. Nothing new.

[@Aut0KAD]

of cours hof not holding value, even players I love, I don't care about cards not from their playing years

[@swizzle1199]

Yup. Stick to players playing year cards. All these HOF cards now are junk cause they are signing so much. I even see HOF Superfractor Topps cards go for a lot. Mind blowing to me.

[@TommysHouseOfMunch]

What are base relics?

[@Showcardsusa]

As with most current product, it’s overpriced. Would not open

[@jeffsmutny1187]

Great analysis. This industry is so dead. When will it hit bottom? Scanning ebay shows thousands of cards above $1000 with absolutely ZERO interest. Even if you look at auctions only, there are ZERO bidders. Don't buy boxes...go to card shows and low LOW ball all sales.