How to Draft from a Late 1st Round Pick | 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

How to Draft from a Late 1st Round Pick | 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
In today's episode we have the 4th part in a new 4 part draft strategy series! We'll be taking a look at a draft strategy study I conducted this offseason that analyzed over 2,000,000 teams to determine how you build an optimal team! Today, we take a look at strategy from a late first round pick.
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[@kingrex1931]

When you look at the WRs going in rounds 3 thru 8, it makes sense to grab two RBs early and even an elite QB in the first 4-5 rounds. This is the year to punt at TE and grab either Ferguson or Engram. Having two great RBs, and Elite QB and a really good WR to anchor your offense is a great way to start your team. There is just so much depth at WR.

[@williams428]

I’m starting to notice this after many mocks. There’s a lot of flexible builds that work but getting two rb and a wr in first three rounds and the getting a qb and/or te before going hard for upside wrs and rbs is the move.

[@jasonjordan8376]

Love your videos, mate. Congrats on getting married! The only pick I didn’t agree with in the first build is the Collins pick. I think he’s going to disappoint. Too many mouths to feed with Diggs and Dell on the team.

[@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA]

@@jasonjordan8376 I don’t have a strong read on him. I do think he’s super talented and would be a WR 1 on a lot of teams. But I also think Diggs is still elite and Dell is on his way to being elite. So really tough to know who’s going off each week, but I do think we get one nuke from one of these 3 each week

[@drejr0617]

ETN in the first round is crazy work

[@dougiebuckets1364]

It is, but I do think he’s undervalued this year. Mid 3rd, I’m in.

[@drejr0617]

@@dougiebuckets1364 that’s about where I like him

[@brianmurray1149]

I would much rather wait on QB this year than TE.

[@waynewayne4227]

Hell yeah. Can get Burrow, dak, love, goff,Purdy Murray all late

[@JustinWilley-nb3ck]

Wait on both is my strategy, I like Love late and double up at TE

[@johnjacobs3601]

​@@waynewayne4227those guys don't excite me. Even Dak who finished as the QB3 overall had 6 weeks as a QB2 (QB14, QB15, QB17, QB17, QB19, QB19) and 3 weeeks as a QB3 (QB25, QB29, QB32). That's 9 weeks in his first 15 games through week 17 where he wasn't even top 12 🤦. At least Love, Purdy and Goff were more consistent, but they didn't win you weeks

[@waynewayne4227]

@@johnjacobs3601 if it's rushing upside you want out of a late qb then get Daniels. I know it might sound funny but even Mayfield or Levi's, Lawrence will win you weeks.

[@FreshReviewYT]

@@johnjacobs3601Well, I’m sure Lamar also had 6 weeks he finished as a QB2 and he was the MVP. Mahomes is the best QB in the league and had several weeks he finished as a QB2 8 times. The difference between Dak and those guys is that Dak goes 5 rounds later. It’s a no brainer to punt on QB this year unless you’re getting Allen or Hurts.

[@countrybumkiniii9003]

Love taking Ferguson & Murray late n drafts especially on ESPN, NFL you can get RB2’s including Z White,Ford and Stevenson very late!

[@chrisclark2747]

Yeah, you have to go RB early. You can't hope to find your second RB after Round 3 and you really should want to have your third RB by Round 5. There just aren't enough RBs late. You can find WRs you feel good about later.

[@jamesjoseph5707]

I have really Enjoyed your 4 part series here Nick. Thank You. You do Great work. 👍👍👍

[@lotus956]

I’m waiting on QBs and RBs this year. Been working out good so far.

[@jtspoon2001]

Can you do some more 10 team content? would love something like this for 10 team, as I think it impacts values a lot

[@BudIce-iw3vd]

when can u get 2 QB? whats optimal build on that? 1-2 QB?

[@Twopawn20]

RB/RB seems better here by a fair bit.

[@martinmai4955]

In a ten team league, it completely changes things. You can get two of puka, wilson or AJ Brown. Then still get rb like Pacheco, Henry, White etc. it is probably the best spot this year in a ten men league.

[@thedarkknight2493]

Congrats on the marriage Nick! 🎉. Love these draft strategy videos. I have a 12 team 1Qb, 2 RB, 3 WR ,1 TE, 2 W/R/T flex. I’ve been going hero RB in mocks if I can get one of the big three. Otherwise I usually hit Wr early. Haven’t quite figured out the best strategy as each draft flows a bit differently. I feel like there’s some good Rb value in the middle, and some good Wr value late, this year for all those extra flex spots. Anyone have any thoughts.? Would be greatly appreciated!

[@thedarkknight2493]

1/2 PPR.

[@zacharymadeira9350]

I’m pick 9 in a keeper league with my keeper gonna be Gibbs in the third round

[@JeramieW]

Just a thought, Nick, have you tried two late round TE? 🤔 I believe Brock Bowers is going to smash in 2024. Possibly taking Njoku or Engram paired with Bowers late.

[@TFFForecast]

Go Engram in this scenario. Zay and Ridley are gone and we've seem Njoku with Watson vs Flacco

[@408Machine]

WR is much deeper in rounds 4-8 this year so I prefer getting my RB’s with 2 of my first 3 picks

[@heatstarzz1147]

Man im such a wr type of guy. I play in a 3 wr 2 flex 10 teamer and usually like to spam WR. But the wr’s just seem so good later in the draft I feel it would be a mistake to force yourself into rb later in the rounds rather than grabbing two solid options

[@CamBedrock]

Travis Etienne at 1.04 😵‍💫

[@VictoryNotVengeance]

What the hell is dude in the 4 spot taking ETN rd1? Lolllllllllll

[@Ravens752003]

Bottom line I went back through my league history 26 yrs no one has ever won a ship drafting from 11 and 12. Just seems to me u kinda gotta swing for fences drafting that late you gotta do something different. You are already playing from behind. Even assuming every player performs to expectation u lose. You need tremendous upside players can’t draft safe

[@DomLeFlaive]

The double RB build obviously better on paper, loved it last season too but got burned. Perhaps I was a year ahead or was unlucky but I think it comes down to how many weeks your RBs miss. Doesn’t have to be an ACL, they both miss 4-6 weeks and you are probably toast. It’s the whole reason WR are going like they are but if you hit, you probably run away with it.

[@fundamentalbear8347]

Feels like you are doomed if you get a late round pick this year. The difference between early 1st round and late 1st is drastic and the early 2nd round players seem to be overvalued and in my opinion some of the late 2nd/ early 3rd round players are actually better selections who I bet outscore them

[@greenleafnumber70]

I’m thinking about drafting 3 QBs and 1 TE instead of 2 QBs and 2 TE, even if I draft TE later. I had Anthony Richardson and Kirk Cousins at QB and it was understandably bad luck with injuries , but 2023 season had more QB injuries than the past. QB1>TE1 value. Am I overreacting to bad luck last year or is QB health a trend affecting the future of drafting?

[@JustinWilley-nb3ck]

I was scrolling through the garbage on my Facebook feed and felt the need for something of substance, some real world info to consume... and sure enough, here's my guy Nick coming through clutch as always.

[@Plan__B]

What about Chuba in a hero a RB if Brooks is coming along slowly to start the season?

[@kingrex1931]

Chuba Hubbard is a great later round pick. He's the last starting RB coming off the board, and if the Panthers start 1-7 to 2-6, I could see them just sitting Brooks and waiting to use him next year.

[@fundamentalbear8347]

@@kingrex1931 Do we really think the Panthers won't be a bottom 5 offense this year tho? Odds are the Panthers will suck and struggle to score so the RBs will end up being bums for fantasy

[@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA]

As of right now I’d say he’s a good target in Hero or RB Zero. We’ll learn a lot more about Brooks in late July that’ll really impact things

[@kingrex1931]

@@fundamentalbear8347 The Panthers will be bad, but they likely will be better than they were last year. Did you think Houston would have the one-year turnaround that they had in 2023? I certainly didn't. I just thought that they would be improved. Chuba Hubbard was the RB26 last year. He's going as the RB53 this year at an overall ADP that puts him in the 14th round. You are basically getting him for free. Unless Brooks takes over, Hubbard will blow away his ADP. It won't take very much improvement on his part to be a top 24 RB, meaning that he can be a weekly starter in your lineup at RB2 and easily a flex option or a bye week fill-in. There is still upside here as well, since Hubbard was efficient in 2022, so if Carolina takes a step forward, he could be far better than anyone suspects. Don't forget that Dave Canales gave Rachaad White 368 touches last year, what if Hubbard approaches that number? The guy is a great value at the end of your drafts that you should be able to use in your lineup at some point. What is your alternative? To pick a handcuff that might not even take over the full workload even if there is an injury to the starter?

[@Plan__B]

@@fundamentalbear8347 I've pulled value out of the Carolina backfield in the past. It's not always pretty, but points are points...

[@mattyfc1304]

This year if i dont have #1 i rather be 12

[@craigfass5327]

Do you need us crowdfund a private jet to get you back to safety?

[@FantasyFootballAdviceFFA]

For real lol. Airport is closed but I do have a flight on Friday as of now

[@duketrippy933]

Man your draft board are way different to mine half of your team is gone by round 4 in my leagues lmao

[@minipwn0422]

I have the same experience. I went on the same website, did a mock draft with pretty much default settings and my drafts are wayyyyy different

[@duketrippy933]

@@minipwn0422 McLaurin in the 7th is unheard of 😂 so many late picks of guys who absolutely never fall idk what’s different about his but everywhere I mock they best wr you’re getting in the 7th is MAYBE Christian Watson

[@minipwn0422]

There is no way etn is going 1.4 that is crazy

[@forwork2601]

1.12 is easily the best position. Anytime you can double dip you’re given a clear advantage

[@BradRossJr]

Always felts that league mates who think this are 1. Bad at planning ahead in drafts 2. New to fantasy

[@fundamentalbear8347]

Tell me how pairings like Harrison and London or Wilson and Gibbs are better than CMac and Nico Collins or CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans, Metcalf, Dell.. Noway. Early 1st is significantly more valuable this season

[@eag8999]

No lol

[@jonesc456]

I agree 2 top 13 players just gotta make sure you hit on those 2

[@brandonanderson5842]

@@fundamentalbear8347 i will say if i am not 1-2 pick, ill prob want 11-12 . hate the middle

[@eag8999]

0% chance ekeler is a 1b. He is the 1.

[@brandonanderson5842]

no he is not lol. his efficieny is terrible and hes breaking down. Also, Daniels is not going to be checking down to him much.

[@eag8999]

@@brandonanderson5842 Be ready to come back after week 3 to say sorry. Playing injured is not the same as breaking down and having terrible efficiency.

[@brandonanderson5842]

​@@eag8999 It's not even so much his efficiency or the fact he always has nagging injuries, but also the scheme.He has always made most of his points off receptions and touchdowns. if you think they replace robinson with him near goal line and he catches a ton of passes from a QB who rushed for over 1k yards last year, good luck.

[@brandonanderson5842]

he will most likely be the passing down back, and good luck catching all those check downs with a QB who can run like Daniels lol.

[@mattyfc1304]

Ur high