How to KNOW When You are Beat in Poker

[@RealmsOfThePossible]

Yet again I learn so much without even knowing, Bart you are an awesome teacher. Thank you.

[@adamseidel9780]

Was this Greg Goes All In on the river flicking it in? “Something something pot odds and I call!”

[@danielkidwell736]

Just trying to do my part. Appreciate you Bart

[@Dynamice1337]

Bart, I sometimes play these spots very aggressively on the flop when I hold aces up and I'm at risk of being counterfeited or having a draw get there. Especially multiway when I suspect that I am best on the flop but my hand is vulnerable. Like a check raise all in type of aggressive play. It's probably not optimal but it works pretty well most of the time for me.

[@supersmoo7377]

You would have been stacked here with the A3 if you get it in on the flop.

[@Fixundfertig1]

Damn Bart looks devastated because the caller called the river shove with a hand most likely beat. Now you know guys, if you don't wanna make Bart sad, don't call river shoves with marginal hands!!

[@Stockhandle123]

How about the shove? I’m not shoving there because how can worse call?

[@kochampion7]

@@Stockhandle123 worse did call. Shover may have had some read on caller, or had the ace of spades knowing neither opponent could have the nut flush, but some worse hands would call

[@gabrielrockman]

Should the villain have shoved with AK? If the hero should be folding A3 here, what can AK be targeting? Even if the villain knows that the hero is going to incorrectly call down with A3, can the villain shove, targeting just that one hand, but possibly running into a set or flush from MP or the hero? Or are there other hands that the villain can be hoping to get called by, and not just A3?

[@victorherrera3502]

These are the questions that normally I think of after the hand, I believe we on the "utg shoes" have sort of a freeroll shove otr (not so much cuz of the risk of mp hitting his bdfd) but I wouldnt be surprised a random player on the bb playing this way his 2 pair combos that are not top 2 (the better ones will only have K3hh but some will still show up with all the other 7 combos of K3o), so if utg thinks other 2 pair hands will call his river shove >0% then I think it's a profitable shove, now the hard part is to guesstimate how often will mp show up with a rivered flush, cuz now utg needs other 2 pair hands to call his river shove at least >50% of the time (the 50% I wrote it on the fly and actually wouldnt know how to come up with a correct number)

[@fluffysheap]

I imagine mp had something like AQ no spades and thought at least one of you was on a flush draw, plausible flush draws being QJss or Axss. A hand like that can call the turn because most of the time on a rainbow flop, the turn will match the suit of one of the cards. But on the river in this situation, top pair hands really don't beat anything. I think he didn't snap fold because he missed a draw, he snap folded because he knew he was probably beat on the turn and the river sealed it. I think even top two is maybe one of the weaker hands UTG can show up with here. I'm expecting a flush or set most of the time.

[@KyprosEc]

Bart I can watch your videos all day. Think the game like a pro in all different stakes

[@maxcalder1010]

Knowing when I’m beat is something I’m starting to get better at. I’ve realized a majority of the time someone over vets on the river they have nuts or close to nuts. Occasionally it’s a bluff but not too often. I’ve been letting these go, or call if I have a very strong hand. I’ll re raise if it’s the nuts

[@jaylee4402]

V -> B

[@maxcalder1010]

@@jaylee4402 🤣🤣🤣 got fat fingers lol

[@speakinfaxonly21]

Overbets at 1-3 and 2-5 are VERY rarely, if ever, bluffs. I've been hit with 10+ overbets in the last couple months. Only 1 was a bluff.

[@Gos1234567]

Yea i think this skill is key to make money at poker,when you can lay down hands that your opponents will always call you with,youll be in profit.

[@markfromct2]

I really like your commentary Mr Crush. Subscribed and Liked

[@tombaker8219]

Great to have moist critical back on the pod

[@qsdailydose8970]

I love these and his explanations

[@joeshab123]

"What was your justification for calling?" I immediately imagine Greg Goes All In: "Pot odds...something something...uh..." and got exactly that!

[@coleclark6866]

great content as always bart

[@jakstables6491]

New to poker terms here , why is the BB called the hero in this instance ?

[@EThph]

When players recount a hand history, the story teller is the "hero" and the player they're heads up with is the "villain".

[@Dynamice1337]

@@EThph technically all other player are "villains"

[@jakstables6491]

@@EThph oh thanks !

[@well.thy.one.]

@@jakstables6491 and if you are a winning player then you are the super hero

[@rudenurse2561]

& if hero busts he becomes a "zero hero"... 👽

[@ROZDAB]

I have the opposite problem. I always think I’m beat. I play to scared sometimes.

[@jofferhandles7654]

Then you’re playing too high of stakes, plain and simple

[@well.thy.one.]

*two scared*

[@lakerfan1855]

Like the other person said, you are playing stakes that you really can’t afford. This is most people’s biggest problem in poker. IMO, if you don’t have at least 40 max buy ins for the game you are playing in, then the game is too big for you.

[@pwnerofall100]

@@lakerfan1855 Yeah but not everyone has like 10k sitting around to go play 1-2 and its infinitely easier to beat than even microstakes online so... I'll take being under rolled vs a soft field vs properly rolled vs a tough one.

[@jarirepo1172]

@@pwnerofall100 Field is only soft if you can make the correct plays. If you end up making too much mistakes you end up losing, no matter how soft the field is. You have to be able to play well enough to beat the field, even if you know you are better it's no use if you can't execute it.

[@kochampion7]

Is it possible UTG had ace of spades and actually shoved as a bluff, knowing his shove would look very strong into two opponents and might get middling flushes and a set of 3s to fold? At the same time if he gets called by weaker he's turned his bluff into value. I'm not sure he can call a shove by mp if he checks so it could be a kind of blocker bluff

[@cgreatthings5589]

I donked off my bankroll the other day even though I knew I was going to get beat. Bought in with my last $400 and ran it up. $1/2/$5BS. $1400eff 7s7d, pre flop MP1 limp, MP2 limp, I raise from HJ to $25. Folds around, call, call. Flop 6s7c10c. MP1 bets $60, MP2 calls. I raise to $400. MP1 tank calls and shows his neighbor who is not in the hand his cards and shakes his head. MP2 folds (later found out he had QcXc). Turn 8d. I jam for $900ish. He calls with 8c6c. Two pair with a baby flush draw. River was 5c…. $3k pot. So painful.

[@sezerkacar3064]

Scared money never wins...

[@RealDJStew724]

Turn jam was atrocious, but it's a cooler. Unlucky river

[@joemarks3719]

@@RealDJStew724 Villian had a 25% chance. That's neither atrocious or a cooler, that is called a suck out.

[@well.thy.one.]

Nice bankroll

[@cgreatthings5589]

@@well.thy.one. thanks? Started about a month ago with $300 playing $1/2. Ran it up to $2500 and had some really bad variance. Gotta start somewhere bud.

[@consumer5728]

Is AK even a jam from villain?? Seems optimistic getting called by worse and hero could definitely xc 33, MP could have a flush or fold…

[@CrushlivePoker]

I would be fairly concerned about that MP over peel on both flop and turn. He’s so weighted towards backdoor spades here especially when our Hero looks to have some sort of other made value hand through the flop check raise and turn bet. Im all for thin I value but if I had AK there I may seriously consider check folding to an MP shove, especially if Hero calls the shove at the end, first.

[@consumer5728]

@@CrushlivePoker exactly

[@youtubelife9248]

Idk how many times i have to say it. OVERFOLD RIVERs. You will save a boatload

[@Gos1234567]

Yes the last 5-6 CLP videos ive seen have Heros calling bets on rivers where there arent too many bluffs and everytime V has it.Always here the old pot odds and blockers excuse or "he cant have XX as he didnt do something i would do previously"....... Just fckn Fold ;-)

[@youtubelife9248]

@@Gos1234567 people just don’t bluff enough in low/mid stakes poker. So whatever you think they “might” have. Just cut that in half and fold

[@dsizzle49]

Here’s a term I’ll coin that crush live can use, “ FOMO” bet. I see guys slow play strong hands until the River brings a stronger hand. In which they panic and almost turn their strong hand into a bluff repping the nuts. They’re too afraid to value bet, but their hand is too strong to check down so they mentally spaz out and over play their hand for fear of missing out on value. Iv been thinking of what to call this phenomenon forever. Iv done it slow play nut flush then board pairs and I panic and jam.

[@sr4087]

Poker is alive and well I know Im beat here BUT 2.5 to 1 ? I gotta call

[@kingkong-mf6hi]

I mean dude is clearly a mega fish. He’s calling into a talk show hand analysis for the most standard check fold in the world. Couldn’t actually give any valid reason why he called even Bart was like yeh thanks for the call at the end lmao

[@bomblade15]

MP with qj, qt, or jt doesn't seem right unless they're a fish of a chaser. I thought maybe AJ or AT but I go with A4 diamonds or maybe A2 diamonds. And it is possible for AQ here if he's someone that doesn't 3bet it very often.

[@INKovari]

I probably open fold the turn.

[@MoSoDope]

The math leveled him into a call… I’m a 1/3 fish but I just don’t see how that shove is anything beside thick value

[@Gos1234567]

"Pot odds"!!! How many have lost money with this excuse?

[@andyzavala7286]

Thought forsure he had QJ or TJ of spades. Either way a fold on the River is a must.

[@PoppysGuitar]

The caller can't remember if the flop had an As card? Do I understand that correctly? The UTG bets all in against 2 players. Seems strong to me but I tend to do that same thing. I hate to fold so I talk myself into thinking the all in is turning a marginal hand into a semi bluff. Stupid I know. Case in point. I am in cut off with Kh-9h, limp, BTN 3X raise, folds to me, I call. The flop comes 10s-9c-Kd. Thinking I might be good I lead out half pot. BTN just calls. The turn is Ad and now I check. The BTN bets half pot. I know I am in trouble but I call. The river is a brick 5s. I check and BTN again bets out half. I think and I know I am in big trouble but for some stupid reason I convince myself that the BTN could be QQ, AJ, or JJ and I call. The BTN turns over Ac-Kc. I am an idiot.

[@paulpena5040]

I don't hate his call. Villain could have had the typical A spades x hand that jams as a bluff or even some gutsy QQs, JJs kind of jam. Not gonna happen too often but you are getting 2.5 to 1. Also I would caution against the "would he bluff in to 2 players". He kind of did not having a flush there.

[@w0nderbreadx]

Moist Critical, welcome back to the show

[@EllieBanks333]

Very interesting hand. I'm dying to know what the MP had. Maybe it's just that all 4 aces were in play. Caller suggested QJ with a backdoor, if so I think that player is foolish. When hero check raises the flop he really only has 2 value hands that make sense. Keep in mind he flatted pre, so AA, KK, & AK should really not be in his range. So he really should have his actual hand A3, or 33. And after he check raised, the UTG who was the PFR calls. MP should be folding practically anything. Because of all this I did not love hero's turn bet. What can these opponents have? Maybe I'm projecting my own play here, but I'd have dumped AJ. At any rate, after the turn bet got called by both players, I'm done putting money in the pot. Hero should have been suspicious that UTG had AA, KK, or AK. After the flop action & hero's solid sized continue on turn & with a player behind him ---> Is AQ ever good here?? Anything less is a trivial fold. On the river I think UTG actually went for thin value, AK should be the minimum hand needed to win this.

[@daddyyu-gi-oh4330]

This guy even says he’s behind them “flips in a call”

[@michaelpreminger4259]

My question is what on Earth is UTG trying to get called by with that shove

[@Gos1234567]

Its so weird the way he played it,kinda passive on flop and turn and then bombs river.Either he thought "im calling a river bet so i may as well shove,might even get a better hand to fold" or maybe frustration at the flush getting there?Dont know but it cant be for value

[@michaelmee8074]

caller dunno why he called never a good sign, happens to me often xD xD

[@justinron1772]

Knowing when I am beat is the largest hole in my game

[@Gos1234567]

Just fold bro,people dont bluff rivers that much,i used to be calling cos of pot odds and blockers and all that theory sh1t and they always had it.

[@danielmeuler2877]

This is why I hate Ace Rag and never trust flopping two pair and more than one person calling the whole way down.

[@chad0x]

Faulty logic. The bett0r on the end wasnt bluffing when he shoved the river into 2 players.

[@pot_kivach160]

He was not bluffing bc he did not know what he was doing, anyway.

[@kingkong-mf6hi]

Justification for calling lol. He’s 2-5 low limit player fish and doesn’t fold 2 pair. Normal standard hand from a fish who doesn’t fold. Didn’t need 10 minute hand analysis for that lol

[@adambrown8867]

Nobody talks about players in collusion for some reason. At Winstar it was rampant when I played there, all the buddies from Dallas playing wouldn't even try to hide it.

[@TheDjcarter1966]

Before reveal...as played probably crying fold...he has to figure one of you are calling.

[@desean3402]

I just don’t understand the play here. Once you 3 bet the flop and get flatted by two players you should be playing defense at best. The call of the 3 bet is way scarier than someone raising back. It implies so much strength that once that 3 bet is called there I’m shutting it down.

[@JohnSmith-nx7zj]

It’s not a 3 bet it’s just a raise.

[@chrisholland8690]

Background is still off set

[@lananavan1885]

If you listen to poker gods these days you will go broke,n if you wait for hands , no one will pay you,, these days you got to gamble,, gamble,,,gamble

[@jesuslovesyou-matts]

I didn't know penguinz0 / Moistcritikal played poker!

[@innerpeace5223]

It’s really simple when your out of money your beat

[@no1ghostrider]

Yeah, MP 1 is never bluffing into 2 people. If they are going to do that with the naked ace of spades, then bravo

[@therealjackwhite1523]

MGM Springfield has the worst 2/5 in the area. Always just one table full of solid regs. Mohegan, Foxwoods, and any NH card room are so much better for 2/5, especially with the $500 buy in at 1/2 at MGM

[@roushracinginc]

Basically every street was misplayed here, top and bottom almost never wants to raise multiway on dry boards, turn is certainly a check and it's a massive punt to call river shove, there is literally 0 hands you beat on the river, like not 1.

[@Gos1234567]

FFS forget " i had to call cos...pots odds." Youre beat here,what bluffs???

[@jeffreywu7436]

bad caller

[@conorm2524]

Fantastic insight. Thank you for making us all stop for a moment to really analyse the scenario in a meaningful way. Your input is priceless...