How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
RESOURCES
Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: • Exponential growth and...
Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob...
Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COV...
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/he...
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-2...
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
Support MinutePhysics on Patreon! / minutephysics
Link to Patreon Supporters: www.minutephysics.com/supporters/
MinutePhysics is on twitter - @minutephysics
And facebook - / minutephysics
Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!
Created by Henry Reich

[@logangrove4103]

When you can't go outside so you sit modelling death rates to take your mind off things...

[@ventooreo9358]

When you can't go outside so you watch people watching videos about modelling death rates to take your mind off things.

[@holczy0]

When you can't go outside so you have to do homeworks all day because my school is an idiot

[@damir_van_kalaz]

When you never go outside anyway so you just watch as other people struggle to handle living the way you've lived since the day you were born.

[@conabish]

@@ventooreo9358 Y'all complain too much. If y'all were in public and there wasn't any hotspots/wifi/data/etc. Y'all would be complaining about that. Make up your mind people. You're at home, you can relax, smoke a bowl, eat shrooms for the first time, grow weed and sell it online. Jeez.

[@mathis8210]

Yes, its incredibly soothing to toy around with different models and their death tolls :3

[@handlesarecringe957]

This, of course, assumes that governments are truthful about infection statistics.

[@loneskankster2242]

Which I promise, China is not.

[@TCSyndicate]

@Parallax yes

[@readisgooddewaterkant7890]

@Parallax yes

[@philossifer6252]

@Parallax , US government is actually boosting testing, so expect cases to skyrocket. China is not even testing which is why their cases are plummeting. Do to the transmission rate the US is most likely already near a million infected, which means the fatality rate is far less than the flu.

[@ZhengyiYang]

@@philossifer6252 I'm glad you know so much about the current situation. Want a degree?

[@legendsoflaughter3313]

Spoiler alert: we didn’t

[@nikheetisnotcool2951]

Yes

[@downbeatfoil5940]

Yes yes

[@yanivshemtov9430]

@@plazmaguy13yago9 lol I doubt that, they just know how to follow rules..

[@yanivshemtov9430]

@@plazmaguy13yago9 look up what rules they made, how they tracked every single person to stop contamination, how stuff was cleaned, each room or street people went to they had to scan barcodes to track, they might be lying about the numbers, but they did get something right, everyone can be tracked, only chinese reveal they can do it and actually use it to help people and no one whines “but my rights”

[@yanivshemtov9430]

@@plazmaguy13yago9 lol nope that’s not it, but yeah I’d be happy if people actually went in isolation and listened to rules

[@leokimvideo]

So sad that KZbin demonetize these videos

[@user-jh6kx1fw9h]

Which "these" videos? The problem with demonetizing, imo, began when Internet became common in 3rd-world countries and scammers were enabled to have tools within their homes, right: computers and web access (and they didn't have to have money any more, to visit cafes, heh. :))

[@user-jh6kx1fw9h]

AKA ^^ "the benefits" of liberal capitalism.

[@amihere383]

@@user-jh6kx1fw9h That isn't capitalism, that's cronyism

[@glenndiddy]

@@user-jh6kx1fw9h i think you mean when advertisers were given the option of filtering so called "no-no words" aka covid, pedophile, fuck, any political terms etc etc

[@glenndiddy]

Holy moly, the US once again shows us they are nr1. In covid 19 cases due to mass brain dysfunction

[@ceviche4life951]

It’s this kind of information and education that we need on actual news reports, not just constant reports of the numbers without much context or graphs

[@ashtonduda9971]

Yes but, caviat #5 some countries lie about their data *Cough china*

[@neo7930]

@@ashtonduda9971 at first ,China may didn't notice it is a global virus ,but,now,we have controlled it , I'm Chinese,think you ….

[@golfstar2875]

Ashton mullins Maybe read some reports from the WHO and GISAID.

[@terryguire1321]

Yes, especially since it's presented so clearly, that even non-mathematical types can get the basic idea.

[@edep3970]

You mean the lies and propaganda about China

[@KoushaTalebian]

"Beautiful horrible graph" - Henry Reich, 2020

[@fakestory1753]

fabulous and cursed

[@OrangeC7]

@Phoenix It's simple, it's just complicated.

[@amvkarthik]

Never heard of this oxymoron.

[@austinmontgomery8908]

Dude china is lying they have most on going cases dont give in to their propaganda

[@dovos8572]

@@austinmontgomery8908 kzbin.info/www/bejne/ZoiTc2WHnJilaM0 that is how china does it... so lieing is not realy what they are doing...

[@alexweigelhikes]

Even after being weeks old, this is the best news coverage I've seen yet.

[@ronchasr6656]

Because its science. Most americans arnt familiar with science. They believe their alternative fact, know it all president, who thinks hes smarter than the doctors and scientists.

[@yegukkim7729]

@@ronchasr6656 Donald trump even swears

[@RSGiraffe]

Months*

[@RSGiraffe]

Ron Chasr be careful you aren’t stereotyping, most people I know are super anti trump, and I live in a supposedly republican state

[@QueerPolitics]

Samuel Ray saying “not all Americans” isn’t so helpful either. I agree it’s not useful to be arrogant about relative smartness/whatever to people in the so called US but safeguarding non-Trump-people there often shifts the conversation in another direction.

[@jhwblender]

“In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is” - Ryan George

[@campkira]

nothing new there... only way to win is getting our life back to normal...

[@williamgarrard9247]

Not knowing what time it is is super easy barely an inconvenience

[@geegeetomlinson2316]

which sketch was that quote from?

[@leighbee13]

This is EXACTLY the thing that I feel I’ve been missing in my obsessive news and stat consumption.

[@hazelcalderbank1556]

@Bob Smith It's entirely possible, even likely, that China is lying about infection statistics, but that doesn't mean we can't still use the data from other countries to inform our decisions. Dismissing a pandemic as "fake news" is dangerous and puts not only yourself, but everyone else at risk

[@tap836]

Yeah, since most news organizations just pick the charts that appear most alarming / worse politically for those they don't agree with.

[@heyday1233]

You need to remember, when looking at this, you're seeing China as one of the countries who are "beating corona". But they are blatantly lying, and any research into this, and videos about WHO doctors backing china on political issues, so they have access to where it started, shows this even more. South Korea, I havent done research into it, on the surface seems like the truth. But it could be lies as well. Not to mention all the countries lying and twisting the numbers. The UK for example, doesnt report deaths that happen outside of hospitals as Corona related. Russia is refusing to acknowledge that they're hit and has a spike in 'pneumonia' cases, Turkey was also ignoring it and pretending they had no cases, even going as far as to advertise their country online still. I mean the only way you can trust is North Korea cos their cases they solve by executing when they "escape from quarantine". This pandemic has just shown how fucked the world is, no one can tell the truth. Not even about something as serious and life threatening as this. And lastly, countries aren't able to report their numbers rn, because of the over burdened health cares and the testing of essential people only in the UK for example. Better way to gage how bad it is, is to look at the critical/serious tab and apply this to MPs video, as opposed to the total numbers.

[@craigiedema1707]

@@heyday1233 they graph the number of deaths as well.

[@edwintober]

@@hazelcalderbank1556 Notice China and S Korea lines go down...controlled news. The other line going down was Diamond Princess...after all 712 on board have Corona

[@mathtronic]

The question of "when does this end" "when do we see the light at the end of the tunnel" is huge to me right now. Thank you for offering a way to look at it that might offer signals for the questions I have.

[@arctorusmedia]

That question is huge to everyone.

[@bias69]

It's not going to end, it's the new 9/11, get used to seasonal lockdowns and shop stock shortages.

[@svchineeljunk-riggedschoon4038]

90 days until the entire world is infected at the current growth rate, which is only about 13% now, worldwide, as opposed to 30% a few weeks ago. The more efforts we make to stop the spread the longer it will last, unless we can slow it to the point of stopping, which seems unlikely on a world scale.

[@cphVlwYa]

I posted this as a standalone comment, but it pretty much exactly answers your question so I figured I'd paste it here too: If you want a better way to generate basic "when does this end" predictions, you should plot a quadratic regression to your plot of y' vs y. Because we expect the growth to be fairly logistic this plot will actually be quadratic and not linear. This allows us to fit a quadratic regression to the data of the form (ax^2 +bx +c) from which we can get values and errors for a and b. We can then uses the values to find the peak of this quadratic (-b/2a) which corresponds to the number of cases when we are halfway to the peak of the disease. By properly propagating the error in the values of a and b, we then get a new interval for the approximate number of cases which we expect to see at the peak of the disease (lets call this value k for now). Then an exponential regression can be fit to the raw case data of the form (ce^(dx)) so that values and standard errors for c and d can be found. We can then solve for x as a function of c,d and k and we see that x = (2/d)ln(k/2c). Finally, propagating the error once again we're left with an interval representing the day we'll most likely hit the carrying capacity of the disease. Doing this with the data available back in March 15th it was predicted that the peak would occur somewhere between April 17th and April 26th. But now with the current data this interval has shifted to May 5 - May 10th as of the currently available data today (these are just the numbers for the US btw, but using data from another country of interest or the global population can easily let you make the same predictions for these other populations).

[@AFuller2020]

On this channel any good news get deleted, it's all Doom and Gloom here.

[@simranjeetsinghmatharoo3877]

"don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there

[@nil2k]

so, it's 2022 now... might be interesting to see a two year revisit of this topic.. how did vaccinations change the graphs visualized here? what about testing pretty much becoming routine in a lot of places? how about the rampant spread of new variants vs the spread documented here?

[@grapetoad6595]

I was just looking at it, for some country's, it seems like they went into lockdown, and cases dropped, and then the second they got out they went back to where they would have been if they hadn't gone into it. Others seem to have been slightly more successful, when looking at the graph with all the countries plotted, they leave the curve at about 100k total cases, and then go at a (slightly) shallower slope up, in a new main sequence (idk might be the same slope, just changed because the scales stop it being 1:1 as you move from the main sequence)

[@MagicallenS]

none of the country beat covid, except china with fake data, instead, most of the country choose herd immunity and live with covid, so who to blame? remember another name of covid19 is wuhan virus

[@Hebdomad7]

Well less people are dying once they got the jab which is good thing... the bad side is governments just seem content of letting it rip overloading our hospital systems again. It's not just the people who died of covid19. It's those who died because they could not get the medical care required because the emergency ward was fully packed with covid patients.

[@danielr700]

@@MagicallenS trolling brain is also a disease visit your doctor

[@gt2k01]

@@MagicallenS I would call it Detrick virus

[@user-pv7eq5gn7h]

I live in Russia and I am afraid to imagine how many people are really infected here, no one observes the quarantine . I closed my home with my family and survive on the money I earn

[@tyradeshift6832]

We wish you luck and keep you in our prayers my friend! Stay safe. Your family is lucky to have you, a thinking person who chooses to do the right thing! 😉😁🤗🧡💜💙

[@kenite7980]

Omg stay strong and I hope you stay safe with your family

[@user-fu5eb3vy1o]

косвенно ты можешь отследить это по заполненности больниц и по соцсетям. Когда пойдут массовые случаи это будет сложно скрыть. В Тольятти вроде пока норм, траффик на дорогах резко упал

[@user-pv7eq5gn7h]

@@tyradeshift6832 thank you 🤗

[@peterfu6213]

theres probably like 100K cases in russia but they just dont show it

[@FelipeKana1]

"Don't plot against time." That's advice for life, folks

[@apurvakmr]

Yes, that makes me think you might be a wise person

[@shammerHammer]

as someone who works with time series primarily: fuck.

[@erent1476]

Felipe Carvalho *_????_* *kzbin.info/www/bejne/n4iQkoKsrrRsZ68*

[@xHeadcleanerx]

Buy “The Plot Against Time”, my new novel.

[@Unknown-ht5re]

Oz Khan yeah but trump kind of did the same thing. He downplayed the risks and ignored the problem which only accelerated the pandemic, like the Chinese at the start. Plus they did not cause this, they accelerated the process and danger of the pandemic but they did not cause it. It was going to reach the US eventually it was only a question of when.

[@KrisRyanStallard]

I forgot about trying to flatten the curve. This feels like a decade ago.

[@DaBurntToaster]

What was it, 17 days to slow the spread?

[@KrisRyanStallard]

@@DaBurntToaster something like that. I remember thinking at the time this would be controlled enough we could go back to normal life in just a few months. Then, you know, 2020 just continued to do it's thing...

[@kalebbruwer]

@@DaBurntToaster Depends on the country, in mine it was 21 days. I was pretty sure they were going to extend it, but damn.

[@tubegerm6732]

yeah, the goalposts have been moved so far they're on another planet

[@DMWayne-ke7fl]

Because it was a lie.

[@TheMcFlyjunior]

"Are you winning son?" Gets a whole new meaning

[@ChrisCoombes]

Never been more grateful for calming background music.

[@forgottenbow]

Replace this with Doom's "Rip and Tear" track and it becomes a very different video. Super glad for the calming tunes.

[@angelgjr1999]

We all need a little calm. We will be okay guys, stay safe.

[@jamiewise7821]

Madness

[@definitelynotjoeds8823]

This graph gives me the feeling of 'When you fail a test, but so do the boys.'

[@erent1476]

Definitely Not Joeds İnterestingg *kzbin.info/www/bejne/mGnHeoifZrSWrKc**

[@iamthatiam4496]

I notice a variable like population size is not factored in. Also you are assuming certain countries are being honest. I don’t buy it. No way

[@swflfishing6140]

I Am That I Am yes. MSM reporting that US passed China for cases. Except they aren’t reporting that China just stopped counting and testing! When your an authoritarian regime you can make things look the way you want!

[@lonnie008]

I'm so lost lol why is this trending?

[@personeater2664]

SWFL Fishing I mean the US also refused to prepare, test, or count for the first weeks of infection.

[@mikebaker2436]

It would be educational to go back and analyze this graph again with hindsight and another year of data points to determine what we new can learn about this approach. How did it do since a year ago.

[@octaneblue6]

Losing, we lost.

[@kkambanite]

In my view, the fact you pointed out the "caviats?" of this analysis is the biggest take away. You just educated so many people that a number is a representation of reality and is meaningless without a context. Thank you

[@a-s-greig]

It's spelled with an 'e.' Looks like a portmanteau of "cave eats," but I swear that's how it's spelled...

[@erent1476]

Very good 🤩 kzbin.info/www/bejne/n4iQkoKsrrRsZ68

[@BasilioColligris]

Numbers are not the representation of the reality. In the case of China, N. Korea, Turkey, Venezuela etc, their totalitarian regimes don't like to publish the real numbers of deaths and sick people. And we now that from incidents like for example the China’s mobile carriers announced a reduction of 21 Million users for the last months. That's a very bad indication of the user's health. Another piece of news concerning this is here: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

[@yangluo1342]

没错，中国数据是造假的。贵国的方案是最可靠的。🤣

[@royyaghi5572]

I am incredibly glad that he pointed all of these out. I have been trying to explain this to a COUNTLESS amount of people who look at the news and start panicking without even being properly informed.

[@SerenityReceiver]

Finally someone who thinks before blurting out numbers!

[@Peter7966]

@@Matthias_Fischer That's right. Only increased testing will tell us where we really are on X/Y graph. Right now it's like driving in the dark with the headlights off.

[@mondoseguendo6113]

Numbers!!!

[@EtzEchad]

I've been talking about this for a month. (And it's not original with me of course.) So far, I've never seen anything on this in the news. Instead, the news is universally hyping the exponential growth aspect of the spread. So called "experts" are pushing the impending doom rather than letting us know when to expect it to stop. What you should look for is a decrease in the number of new cases per day. When you get a real downturn in the new cases, that means that the epidemic is about half over. Recently, new cases in Italy have decreased. But, a the point of the decrease in new cases, the exponential growth curve is the steepest, so morons think it is getting worse instead of turning around.

[@FirstSynapse]

The only numbers you can more or less trust are death numbers, because they are being tracked much better than the total amount of cases because of the low availability of tests in most countries. Total number of infected people now is very likely in the tens of millions if you consider the death rate (

[@IDoBeSmarter]

He blurted out the CCP's BS lies. They have not beat the virus, you would be foolish to believe a proven liar.

[@eurasiancat5281]

how do people not understand that this video is almost 2 YEARS old

[@carlandj]

June 2021 and I'm still using this website. Thank you Aatish so much for making it!!!

[@mediawolf1]

I've watched this a few times now and it's actually a really good teaching on how to use statistics while being careful to convey what the chart does and doesn't tell us, and what we need to know about what we _don't_ know about the data, in order to use it properly.

[@redacted9755]

Some nice CCP talking points

[@sturmtiger7704]

mediawolf Stay strong America, 🇰🇷 ❤️🇺🇸 South Korea is sending Masks & medical supplies. Stay safe.

[@alexanderwill2847]

Even though I still don't know the future, this is one of the most comforting things I've seen in days. Thank you!

[@ladymopar2024]

I agree I'm tired of watching the news stuff like this is really good and informative

[@connorsherman7932]

Unless you live in America who is still on the rocket ship

[@TheCarpenterUnion]

Why? Unless you live in China or South Korea, you're not doing good at all.

[@Cazanu417]

it kinda shows us the worst is already done so if youre feeling great its great you probably dont have it the social distancing or specially lockdowns will have an effect 3 4 weeks we are just seeing tests being done on people infected 2 3 weeks ago.

[@Nightek1]

Recent scientific study to counteract coronavirus with an over-the-counter drug, google search "1-s2.0-S0024320520303313-main.pdf".

[@davinriedstra3928]

This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.

[@mistercomple7241]

aatishb.com/covidtrends/

[@slobodanvidakovic4567]

You will know. When mainstream media starts slowing down on constant talk about Covid, that is when we start beating it.

[@SgtMickle]

This guy manages to explain what are actually sophisticated mathematical concepts, in a way that anyone can understand. Props.

[@erent1476]

Sgt. Mickle kzbin.info/www/bejne/n4iQkoKsrrRsZ68 OMG wowww

[@NavaracVolare]

It is not sophisticated haha

[@seayellow5834]

Senior high school students can get this

[@bigsmall246]

@@NavaracVolare yea but many people never paid attention in school and most forget what they learned immediately after graduating. That is the source of many problems in the world today - stupid people.

[@Vits117]

One word: YES. The most important thing is not where we are in absolute numbers, but rather where we are headed in relative numbers. Finally a voice of reason among the white noise: Science.

[@michaeldeierhoi4096]

In relative numbers most every country is headed up as in an exponential increase in infected cases. Only those regions that initiated a complete shut down early on have chance to "flatten the curve". And yet even those will likely experience a high number of cases though not necessarily an extreme number of cases.

[@whyOhWhyohwhy237]

@@michaeldeierhoi4096 flattening the curve is not binary, every precaution taken against a disease flattens the curve to some extent. Though I do agree that earlier quarantine would be FAR nore effective.

[@lwutx3]

One word: NO. Don’t get comfy. Nearly every country is lying about the severity or cannot record infections/deaths effectively

[@SCORP1ONF1RE]

^This. If you wanna help out, start making masks. And I mean good ones. So 'the shopper' can come home uninfected. There are great tutorials. You also need airtight goggles. Check dads toolbox.

[@SCORP1ONF1RE]

Best mask righ here kzbin.info/www/bejne/jWfHZKetpa2qn9U

[@ilghiz]

3:45 Physical distancing! That's the right name cuz social distancing is different. We might be physically miles apart but socially close. And we might be physically a few metres from each other but socially in two different universes.

[@ottomezzetti3939]

I know I don't know why it keeps being called that

[@simonhubner932]

@@ottomezzetti3939 I think it`s because normally you would go out and visit friends and stuff, but right now you shouldn`t, so you distance yourself socially. But yeah, there really should be another name for just not getting close on a physical level.

[@campkira]

can not breeding without pussy... the fact is the risk is about the same as getting hit by a car.. so getting thing back to normal would be piority the vaccine should be ready soon and we just had to get shot every year and wait and see.

[@Meboy-uv5td]

@@campkira what is this comment i swear

[@lilwalis6742]

This looks so amazing and tells a lot about the story. Thank you!

[@miredabraga5156]

I can't be the only one noticing South Korea in the headlines every other week placing top position in all kinds of categories these days.. Kudos to them!

[@zdea777]

Karen Tomczak they also have access into your credit card history and geo-tags from your phone. So unless you want to sacrifice your right to privacy....

[@toruko-ishibravo2zulu679]

Not mine. I use a rotary. I'm safe until FaceBook has helped China run their oversea cable ashore in Oregon for direct wire access to The America's. Excuse me if I ignore South Korea and focus on a Communist-directed USA Corporation.

[@coins_png]

@@zdea777 the heck are you implying ??

[@AnthraXaXis]

@@toruko-ishibravo2zulu679 facebook? you're not safe.

[@leewonjea7358]

@@zdea777 bruh you have paranoia

[@polyjackets8659]

i really enjoy the music. calming despite a stressful topic.

[@Name-jw4sj]

I didn't even noticed it. I am over here trying to understand the video and yet yall comments is about the background music. Like wtf who notices that?

[@tf1639]

I've noticed on Aatishb.com/covidtrends that many states seem to be experiencing success in the last couple of days.

[@BigNick3468]

This is easily the best video about this on the internet. You present it in a way that is approachable even for people who have no background in data science. Would you consider doing a follow-up video where you interpret the graphs? Also, I like how Aatish Bhatia added "reported deaths" to his website since # of cases is so dependent on testing. Numbers of deaths can also be highly subjective but I feel it is more dependable. Would you agree?

[@linhe6729]

Easy. I live in LA and my neighbor just had a party. So we are losing big.

[@greenbin3028]

@JGD having a party isn't illegal so they can't arrest them for it, also why the fuck do you want him to shoot them "You're the problem" he can't do shit about it

[@simonwiltshire7089]

Darwinism in action

[@SiqueiraMath]

Natural selection in action, Darwin always right!

[@kaidzz]

@@dand1455 you're one of the kind that spread the disease. don't worry we have Natural selection.

[@drmachinewerke1]

Just watch once your neighbor is ill . The looting will start. Let them party. All you can do is give them advice and stay away stay safe .

[@Lkindt]

This is brilliant, and so compelling. Hers a note to the "incomplete data: I'm from Denmark and on the 14/3 Denmark changed who should have a Corona test. Denmark went from testing everyone to only the one with severe symptoms, and hence there is a dip in your graph. What I find very interesting, in a not-so-good-way, is that now the dailycases runs in parallel again. Frightening.

[@Calirohe]

It is interesting to see how different countries react to the same situation: Switzerland has done the exact opposite, from testing only the "people at risks" with severe symptoms to testing as massively as possible (hence the scary bump in the number of cases confirmed in Switzerland). I hope we can afford to also test people who suspect they got the virus but were only mildly affected, it would certainely give interesting information on the real number of cases.

[@ThePinkus]

Yes, it is remarkable, even paradoxical, that this graph is significant without being reliant on uniformity of the testing (or reporting) policy of different countires. I can tell this by comparing Italy and and S.Korea where the testing policy is completely different as indicated by the ratio of tests to positives: 4:1 in Italy, 26:1 in S.Korea. Nonetheless the initial "main sequence" is essentially identical (until S.Korea regained control of the epidemic and drops off the main sequence). At least the graph is insensitive to this factor so far as the policy remains constant. As You pointed out, if the testing policy worsen then it could appear as an artificial "favorable" change due to its movement relative to the historical accumulation of the total cases. Since this change of testing efficiency can also be unintended (e.g. if the epidemic saturates the testing capacity), this mimicking of "good results" is actually a very relevant concern when assessing if measures are having some positive effect. Italy seems to slowly drop from the sequence, but what is this? Is the effect of the national lock down, or some worsening of detection and reporting? Some confidence comes from the fact that the ratio tests:positives has increased slightly (that's what You get when You increase Your capacity x13 times in 25 days but Your enemy is an exponential, that You are really happy of a slight improvement...), but it is far from settled, and it is not yet to the point that the spread is confirmed to be below its critical efficiency. That the graph is mostly not reliant on the quality of data is a good thing, we can assess the trend without needing to make assumptions on that factor.

[@COVID--ti3hl]

Covis

[@jdaddy1962]

Want to survive? Stay inside. Wear mask when outside. Flush nasal passages at least twice a day. If you have a "FloNase" type of device...use it. If not.....use a squirt bottle with warm+ water. The spraying you all have witnessed for the past year is now showing results AGENDA 21

[@stephanweinberger]

@@ThePinkus that's the nice thing about the double-log scale. Changes in testing methodology will just shift the line horizontally or vertically, while maintaining the overall slope. And even comparably large shifts in the absolute numbers are "dampened" by the log scales.

[@michaelj.smithph.d.9114]

This is a wonderful primer in everyday language suitable for sharing with my friends and colleagues trying to make sense out of COVID19. Thank you!

[@olivierbertrand9680]

Thank you for the inspiring video. I have been wondering about how to detect new outbreaks. Following a similar approach, we could count new cases as a number of total cases after "the" end of the last outbreak, but that would require to identify the end of the last outbreak. Plotting the total count on a linear-x, logarithm-y-axis may however seem to be a better approach but I fail to see why it shoud be.

[@jpeg7082]

KZbin is more helpful about the Coronavirus than the news is.

[@mmwosu]

That’s because all TV media outlets are trying to politicize it

[@rood6422]

The data regarding China is incorrect they're apparently having a 2nd large spike

[@forr3st.]

Kinda sad but true

[@loxp1713]

Yeah, the news is 100% to blame for all the panic shopping everybody has done, causing toilet paper to go outta stock everywhere 😂

[@KhanMann66]

News has done nothing but fearmongering left and right. So sick of it!

[@GaryCrasher]

"I've been thinking more about epidemiology rather than physics" honestly, same

[@jameseenacoene7680]

Epidemiology is based on math and physics. It's called statistics.

[@sarthakpapney3125]

Same brother!!

[@muhammadfaraz8569]

Lier

[@user-ib6mr6ct6j]

stayhomeprium.link/76s52saMRxs

[@jabariphillips766]

Thank you so much Henry. This was a very useful video.

[@GermanTopGameTV]

About two years later we unfortunatly know that it will never go away. The optimism at the beginning after the shellshock settled is admirable from a position of hindsight...

[@lightbox617]

I live in Newark, NJ; across the river from NYC. For the first time in my life, my lack of social awareness and reclusive behavior is working for me.

[@bbsonjohn]

That’s why evolution preserve lone wolf gene

[@erent1476]

Timothy Dingman Vsauce is ⚰️😖 *kzbin.info/www/bejne/n4iQkoKsrrRsZ68*

[@billelkins994]

After this is over and we are the only ones left we will have to think about getting together for a big party.

[@daryljump1768]

Very well put together. Sharing with a handful of non-scientist friends and family.

[@aspineux]

Very good video (as usual). Always have a good understanding of the problem!

[@zzjus10zz85]

Could you a video on the Hartle-Hawking state? I like your approach at explaining the difficult aspects of physics. Thanks

[@WixdomGaming]

USA on the graph: *I am speed.*

[@prawny12009]

The countries that are growing the fastest are those that are doing the most testing, if you don't test anyone it would look like you have no cases when in reality you would just be ignorant to the truth. This was one reason the UK government restricted testing to include only those already showing symptoms (and even then not everyone is being tested just those likely to survive) to artificially lower the numbers. In my opinion everyone should be tested so that those who test as post infection can be studied to establish what the long term immunity and infection rates are likely to be, by taking regular follow up samples and possibly volunteers re exposing themselves for medical research. And those that show no infection can take the precautions necessary, no point everyone staying home of half of you have already had the virus. Without testing their will be countless people convinced they are immune when in fact they had a regular flu or cold, putting themselves and others in danger out of ignorance.

[@nelsonk1341]

Trump: like I said kids, America first. Vote me

[@mrpepe9502]

@@prawny12009 Donald Trump: "We tested by far the most people, more than any other country in the world." 5:44: whoops

[@anomalous8565]

mr pepe that's both hilarious and sad Because the government's competence is severely lacking right about now

[@pauloygarcia]

@@mrpepe9502 This data is from march 19th. We did test most people in the world by now as of 3/30 we are closing 600k test. Although South Korea still surpasses the US on tests by 100k people, because obviously, the US is a much more populated country.

[@BIRDMANROB1]

I'm no genius on maths... But found this a far more accurate representation of trends for Covid-19.

[@wizard7314]

@Bob Smith what are you referring to?

[@aleka..]

@@wizard7314 Bob probably is getting foil hat feedback often, for "anything can happen" truism stretched to untrue territories. (conspiracy theory thinking) There are limits to our knowledge, and any decent scientist knows that, but can speak with reasonable amount of certainty, too. And for this virus, I've yet to see anyone claiming to know what they don't. (and I'm following a lot of various experts in related fields)

[@wongelfski4681]

Rob Scott Thanks we should delete this video and just leave your comment in its place

[@stormmeansnowork]

If there's one thing this Wuhan SARS virus (which is what the Loyal Chinese lapdog WHO called COVID-19 after China's political lobbying) taught us, it must be the fact that the China government is a habitual lair. Hit the emergency button like China? It shows that you know China nowhere as well as those in Hong Kong and Taiwan. No offence, seeing and making sense of the figure and graphs is one thing, taking active measures are quite another, and here is the key point - Hongkongers and Taiwanese, both closest to China geographically and commercially were supposed to be most affected, and yet they were far better than the Europeans and Americans, because both do the same thing --> wear surgical masks whenever you are among the crowd and do not trust China. The case figures in HK and TW will show you whether this is true. Washing hands are necessary, but for WHO to stress this is no different from making a statement of discovering that your mother is a woman. WEAR THE MASKS!

[@btt8967]

Never heard about your “wave theorem”, but yes the virus may come back.........in another kind of virus. Newest scientist research are try to find a “general vaccine” to solve groups of virus in one vaccine but this is still far away to go. There some fact about your questions why China don’t curfew and lockdown each province, in fact they did. I know this because my parents is currently in China and she told me people are not allowed to travel unless they have “health card”, country side or community are not allowed any entry even traveler have the health card, so that means my father can’t going to her own house just because he had been coming to other provinces.

[@freedapeeple4049]

I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!

[@mustafaemrebasaran7701]

Amazing explanation. Thank you for making this video.

[@jon9828]

The pop-up of "assuming you trust the data" is SO VERY important.

[@tomstech4390]

Covid-19 doesn't care who you trust.

[@user-hm4xp6iv9u]

Lmao

[@ohlookitisacat7404]

@@bigmoneyabbott3001

[@simonz7904]

Python PogChamp Live in your poor fantasy land and wait for getting a white lung. Never trust China makes where you are.

[@eugene8498]

​@@comp.eng.student2055 Nope. You're a liar, or brainwashed by your capitalist goverment that is so used to lying that they have people like Trump and Hillary to be their puppets. What did your capitalist leaders tell you? "Think of it like the flu", "it'll disappear like a miracle", Huh!? In the meantime, China acted, public transports were cut between cities, and even villages, people isolated themselves, wore masks if needed to be in public, while you watched, laughed, and criticized. Your leaders won't admit it's was their fault. They just blame China, as in everything else. How convenient! And you brainwashed herds believe them. Accusing China of practicing slavery, seriously? Sure, about a hundred years ago, just like the US. Now? Any proof you've got? Any none idiotic proof.

[@ruedigersens9888]

I am a natural scientist (quantum chemist) and would like to express my greatest appreciation. Boys, keep it up! Greetings from Rhineland-Palatinate, the Tuscany of Germany.

[@aloysiusvo318]

ruediger sens I’m an expert in Super Quantum Physics that can time travel. I also would like to express my appreciation

[@ladderlappen4585]

there are big and small trees and i would like to express my greatest appreciation

[@gracefaith1282]

🤔

[@Ssyphoned]

Brock Madigan Busy wasting trillions of dollars trying to make an anti hydrogen for no fucking reason

[@him6008]

@@Ssyphoned It might not look worth today, but tomorrow you will see all of the reasons that seemed meaningless today.

[@pierrotA]

One year later and the graph is still updated. It become very obvious that two group have formed: The "zero covid" stategy (China, South Corea, Australia,...) is low and stable. The "live with covid" (USA, most of Europe,...) stategy is high and unstable.

[@rikiship62]

A follow up on this would be great to see a before vs now

[@joshr.5199]

Highschool math student: "I will never see this again, why am I learning it?"

[@DonVigaDeFierro]

_"No, not you, but your smart classmates will see it again."_

[@MegaOgrady]

@@DonVigaDeFierro Correction: Your classmates that will go to a field where this is relevant :)

[@roroo3045]

Math is still wack lol

[@ACE360x]

@@roroo3045 I will fight you

[@ross1880]

This guy knows math.

[@dAvrilthebear]

So far this graph shows that almost everyone is doing equally bad.

[@goofygrandlouis6296]

CHINA IS NOT AN OPEN DEMOCRACY => FAKE NUMBERS !

[@allthenewsordeath5772]

dAvrilthebear Except for South Korea, good job fellas.

[@hamiltonumbatanakgeorge433]

I do not 100% believe the chinese number going down and them having it under control. I slightly believe the numbere in S. Korea are slowing down.

[@fnors2]

@@hamiltonumbatanakgeorge433 obviously. China's new cases number suddenly became 0. It didn't slow down, it just... Stopped dead in its tracks. That means that China is most definitely lying about their numbers. Especially after they kicked out all foreign journalists. Either they just lie outright or they stopped testing for it so the number can't rise anymore.

[@user-sk9pt7ll9v]

@@fnors2 You are brainwashed.

[@georgebrandon7696]

I'm just here to let you know not only have you inspired me (an executive editor/owner at a small online news publication) but my own state's (PA) health department, as well. If it weren't for the PA DOH, who has the viz on their website, I wouldn't be here. Thank You for this. Now, I am off to do my own Tableau story. I will be sure to mention all of the caveats. I like it when others tell the whole story, not just the bits people want to hear. BTW, I love numbers. They don't lie. People and politicians do. I am no stranger to math and physics. I was a USN Nuclear Power Machinist's Mate. Again, Thank You. :)

[@frentz7]

great job, excellent clear instruction and a nice summary of caveats

[@Zw285]

Thank you so much for making this. I hate the 24 news cycle and how it purposefully milks any story for all it's worth. Unlike them, this is actually informative and paints a picture for a hopeful future.

[@WillToNihilsm]

Stop watching the news media then. You are giving them money by watching.

[@PeterAuto1]

@@fios4528 It's still mostly only a snapshot of the development not a view of the development

[@abdulmasaiev9024]

Does it, though? Almost all countries are right on the "it's not working" path, other than China (which took serious measures and also is probably lying on top of that), South Korea (which took serious measures also, from the get-go) and maaaaaaaaybe Iran (don't know anything about their situation, can't comment... though I wouldn't be surprised if they're downplaying the numbers too). Everyone else seems to be going straight towards the top-right corner.

[@SolvayConference]

@@abdulmasaiev9024 Wasn't Iran in one of the worst states? Didn't they have people literally dying in the streets?

[@abdulmasaiev9024]

@Yoochan Shin I know it had its health minister coughing his lungs out on live TV while doing an inteview insisting everything was fine and that the virus wasn't going to be a problem, then soon after that dying of the virus because of course that's why he was coughing. I'm not super predisposed to trust their reporting now, but who knows. I haven't looked into it too closely since then, it's a problem everywhere, so I was looking at much closer to home.

[@andrewcgs]

"(Assuming you trust the data)" Shots fired at pretty much everyone!

[@sadface7457]

That not always a pessimistic statement. The Oxford study assume the infection rate is higher but the symptomatic fraction is lowwer, because only symptomatic people being tested the actual number of carriers is unknown. Rationing has introduced a bais into the data.

[@timogeerties3487]

Well, China reportedly destroys the samples. I don't trust their data

[@gqqq5042]

Mostly China.

[@BothHands1]

china's data is false, but recently we've seen the usa hiding cases as well.

[@lee7734]

everyone talking about china but what about iran? russia? the US?

[@upstartengineering]

This is a brilliant video, one of their best.

[@xcmysterioushope7053]

After watching a video on the number of infections, and realizing that it was not what I wanted to know, this was very beneficial.

[@yaboiranger5465]

local neightbors had a house party last night when my town started the home confinement rule so i'm not so sure if we're winning

[@lisar3777]

My daughter is in isolation in a city. She looks out her window and constantly sees crew trucks of Latin day laborers risking the lives of people ......to prune a tree

[@notjpegmafia9690]

Lisa R How exactly does being Latino have any relevance to your comment? Also, I saw your insensitive previous comment about NY being ran by liberals and that’s why there is the situation there in. This isn’t about politics or ethnicity. I know Fox News and your ALT Right Neo Nazi mentality wont let you believe that. People are dying and you choose to be racist the far right political. Absolutely disgusting.

[@yesbabelon]

@@notjpegmafia9690 needs more buzzwords. 4/10 - wouldn't read again

[@notjpegmafia9690]

Yesbabelon Good thing you read it the first time then 🤠

[@interstellarsurfer]

@@lisar3777 You 'personally' going to help those guys feed their families and pay the rent? Stay in your safespace and let the men risk their lives for your benefit. 😉👍

[@jquavee]

Gotta love seeing the noble land of Diamond Princess on all these

[@erex9875]

Jack Davey IKR LMAO

[@Soken50]

Do you know what diamond Princess actually is ? It not quite as noble as it is a tragic case study of the spread of the virus in a closed environment

[@wyattbreymeyer4033]

i still come back to this every week or so

[@EbenVisher]

What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!

[@jesuscristxc3448]

"flatten the curve" me: waaaait a second...

[@benoit-pierredemaine3824]

I agree, this plot looks pretty flat to me ...

[@frostedlambs]

the bell curve?

[@andressilva5693]

@@benoit-pierredemaine3824 it's in log-scale

[@bruhwastaken3156]

Ive seen that phrase before Hmmmmmmmm

[@bruhwastaken3156]

frostedlambs have you heard of ph

[@araujopsy]

The 'don't plot against time ' was something I loved hearing in this video. Excellent work.

[@erent1476]

Eliezer Araújo Lit vid. *kzbin.info/www/bejne/n4iQkoKsrrRsZ68*

[@slam5]

you have to understand a bit about calculus and stats to understand this video.

[@ahndeux]

He is full of it. He is definitely plotting against time. That is the only way he can get those charts. The implication is the total number of cases increases with time. He just superimposes it on the graph as a line. The time factor is just not presented as a consistent linear or log scale. What it really doesn't show in the graph is how rapidly the disease is progressing. A disease that reaches 100K infection in one week vs one year looks like the same graph on his chart since it only counts the total number of cases.

[@aras2454]

@@ahndeux But his point was do not plot AGAINST time lol which in my understanding means not putting the class intervals representing time on the x axis, right?

[@haozheloh3728]

@@ahndeux u mislook the y-axis, which is the cumulative new case in past week. So 100k in 1 week vs 1 year definitely will not be the same

[@AndyCarmichael]

Can you update this, or is there a site where this is being kept up to date? So useful. Thak you.

[@rgrrgrsxndngr1904]

Could this be done with a three day avg for the y axis? I’m trying to do this for Navajo Nation. I have daily Total Covid19 case numbers and daily new cases on an excel file. I did a 3 day avg, then scatter plotted the 3 day avg to the daily total cases, so essentially the x axis is also time. Is it possible to DM or post on another social media account a pic of the table and graph I have?

[@BeastMasterNeil]

"Assuming that you trust the data" is a big issue to skip past so quickly since it relates to the most dramatic shift on the graph. The number of detected cases does not necessarily equal the number of reported cases. I hope the sharp drop of new cases in China is genuine, despite their governments disproportionate predilection for censorship.

[@KevinUchihaOG]

i'm guessing he didn't emphasize it because that would lead to the whole comment section focusing on that part and not actually talking about the point of the video.

[@arclight-1717]

Kevin Uchiha to bad that’s all what we are gonna talk about

[@cmbeadle2228]

Stamps Law of Statistics

[@SondreGrneng]

Hell, even if you do trust the data from China, the steps they took would never work in the west. There would be riots.

[@gonzalogutierrez510]

Funny thing, since they removed all foreign journalists there hasn't been a lot of new cases. Best case scenario, their harsh policies have significally diminished the virus advance. Worst one, they are manipulating the data

[@cptnspicywiener]

What about the possibility of a second spike in cases

[@PeterAuto1]

It can happen. Singapore showed a 2nd spike in the animation, and if you look at the world Data you would also see a second one because China dominated too much at the beginning

[@SteveVi0lence]

Official Us govt report says 3 or more waves and 18 months... at least, highly virulent and highly contagious. 1-3 years for a return to normalcy.

[@strayorion2031]

@Dylan L Then go make a video and program a animation and see if is soo easy to use 50 factors in a graph

[@scottmerila4396]

@Dylan LYou're looking for this video to provide information that it wasn't intended to. Instead of criticizing what is a good video you should do some research to find the answers to your questions.

[@Peter_Scheen]

@Dylan L And you expect they cram all that information in a few minutes? I think it is great for it shows how you can use numbers to show an idea.

[@cwsfan16]

I would love to see how this data has changed over the past few weeks

[@interstellargreenbean]

Pennsylvania just began reporting data using this method and cited this video as the inspiration. Thank you.

[@billdanosky]

Caveat #5: Some countries lie about their data.

[@emissarygw2264]

Math and science says, if you quarantine everyone for several months you should see new cases go to zero. A country does that, and reports their numbers going to near-zero. Americans who can't do math: "no way that's possible, they must be lying"

[@nuonuoquan8413]

No country could give the REAL data, this virus is crazy, and plz don’t lie to yourself anymore, China really did a great job

[@joedollarbiden9823]

Something smells fishy, tho it needs official confirmation from other nations. And Anyone knows a little about Chinese authorities right to be skeptical about it.

[@pasoB303]

@@nuonuoquan8413 Well, among some other countries, China stopped or slowed down the testing of patients. There is no doubt that they are doing a great job, but when you don´t test your population or don´t investigate the death of some people, then i guess the numbers have to go down this quick

[@egregius9314]

@PhantomCraft87 Also *cough*Turkey*cough*

[@jasonebat1074]

Thank you KZbin, for recommending this a year in 2022, just for old times sake am I right....

[@brucewernick6542]

Very interesting. I'm surprised not to see this format on more sites. I'm scraping local data from github and plotting log(change) vs log(total). Now, I'm waiting eagerly for the sudden drop!

[@DanielRenardAnimation]

Love how Denmark, Sweden and Norway, each do a little dip in the chart, diverging from the rest...but then continue upward. Being from Denmark myself, I can confirm how there was a public announcement, causing a bit of a scare, that led to an initial panic, followed by a period of nation-wide isolation (as desired). Shopping was SUCH a delight in this time. You'd go into a store and there'd be 2~3 other people, allowing me to get my shopping done in seconds. However, now that a few weeks have passed, people got _"used to"_ or I might even say... _"BORED"_ of the Covid-19 spread and loosened up way too much... Now that I go shopping, the stores a crammed as usual. Old folks, who are ill advised to be leaving the safety of their homes in these times, pushing carts around at 1 meter per minute. Couples, bringing ALL their kids, to clog up the candy, or dairy-isle, to bicker over what flavor yogurt to get and whatnot... That's likely why, the growth has picked up again, in Scandinavia. People got way too relaxed, way too soon, all at the same time, to continue as they've always had and thus, the spread picks up the pace again. 😷

[@Oachh]

Well, Sweden just test the people in hospitals/the one in the risk group, therefor will we only have a lwoer amount of detected cases aswell. Then it's possible to say " we have it under control" but in reality the goverment is just putting their head in the sand. But today they announced they will start testing more people other than ppl in hospitals & risk group, so maybe it's just gonna come as a huuuge spike now as detected cases in sweden.

[@taserrr]

The issue is the death increase you see now is from people that got infected 2-3 weeks ago. It takes about a week to acquire symptoms and than it gets more serious to a point where you're forced oxygen and when it gets real bad you lose 80% of your lung capacity and die eventually. So A LOT more people will get infected when they're packed in supermarkets.

[@thepeppanugget3594]

The Swedish government isn’t really caring about our people, people in Lomma are going out side to restaurants. The only thing my school did to prevent corona spreading was to let one class after another lot to go inside to get food

[@Bleideris0]

@@thepeppanugget3594 in my country all schools were shut down, online studying comence!

[@napoleonfuckeged5956]

Godt med nogle kloge danskere❤️❤️

[@MeTurtlesLike]

Really interesting point about how more infections --> more testing ---> more "cases". That helps explain the absolute explosion in the growth rate when the virus starts to become worrying enough that mass testing happens

[@6AxisSage]

Only if you're trying to hold onto your narrative that its all a hoax and you're trying to insulate yourself from being really really wrong in your predictions a week or so ago.

[@ThePinkus]

Mass testing at a national level did not occur, the capacity for this is non existent. Essentially all testing are risk-assessment based. You can roughly estimate the criteria of admission to test by the ratio of tests done to positive cases. This gives the mean risk of resulting positive for the population that was tested. With 26:1 in S.Korea I estimate that the policy tested people with a mean of 5% risk (I am assuming 70% sensitivity, and the estimation is blatantly rough). With 2,5:1 in Lombardy the policy tested people with more than a 50% risk of being positive. This indicates a lot about how proactive is the effort of identifying "hidden" cases. Or rather (roughly speaking) in S.Korea they were looking for hidden cases, in Lombardy just for confirmation of the already likely diagnosis. This indicates/rates how countries manage the epidemic. No surprise that Italy was forced into a national lock down.

[@halleffect5439]

The ratio between infected and deaths are invers to what you are telling here.

[@poweredbyrice5708]

500 people show up to test....10 have it in the line...now 100+ will have it in 2-14 days. Rinse and repeat. Testing doesn't cure anything.

[@HappinessHealthPeace]

Great video THANK YOU!

[@udowagner9199]

Will there be an updated version of the video. Would be interesting to see the development since april...

[@raginplayer2665]

The background music makes me want to start learning trigonometry

[@christopherbradley7149]

RaginPlayer YOU’RE A FREAK

[@KIMK0K]

That's how they get you!

[@HighLieBH]

No no, let the man try.

[@willadams8558]

RaginPlayer or play wii

[@Diaming787]

Once you start learning trigonometry, you will never go back. There is always more to learn in trigonometry related concepts no matter how much you learn.

[@utkarshkumar5934]

thank you for coming back when we needed💞.. been here for years.. you the best henry🙏👌

[@WonderConnectionChapelHill]

Thanks! This was super informational

[@luizquevedo6580]

Whaaaat?!?! You're friends with Aatish AND 3b1b? What a time to be alive!

[@georgegividen]

Still looking on my globe trying to find the country Diamond Princess.

[@Dave1507]

try looking for a cruise ship ;)

[@simonleach8464]

Whoosh!

[@mashuknabi2298]

Hahahaha I was doing the same last night

[@NoActuallyGo-KCUF-Yourself]

Near California.

[@mandystop1077]

@Joe Boisselle one of the continents of Africa 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 Lol😂

[@corbinclark2776]

I haven't watched this channel in literal years and this just showed up on my recommended page.

[@xiyuanlu488]

Love your video, simple & scientific!

[@stephaniethuman4156]

Do you have a follow up video with more current data? Since we are now in July...I'd be interested in what the data says now. Thanks for sharing this, it helps me understand more about covid.

[@jhearne1222]

The link is in the description

[@PeterTea]

Thanks. I was just telling a friend that many people have trouble comprehending exponential growth. This does a great job of explaning that.

[@SmallSpoonBrigade]

That's a start, but this is more likely to follow a logistics curve where it starts out exponential and then slows down in a similar way as the number of potential hosts and resources decrease. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function It shows up a lot in things like this and word of mouth campaign as you start slow, it gets extremely fast, and then it tails off at the end.

[@Karen-pl8kd]

How can people work with this data when it's inaccurate and full of lies? Especially China. Are people that gullible?

[@robertschlesinger1342]

Worthwhile video for all to see, especially during the present COVID-19 pandemic. I also recommend Grant Sanderson's videos related to epidemics and exponential growth and the simulation of epidemics.

[@roblowery3188]

Where can I find a youtube video that is using this method? There are so many videos but this has been the only one that gives any answer of use to me.

[@nikkigriffin6441]

I’d love to see an updated graph for July

[@stevewilliams8652]

Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph (hyperlink is above). It is up to date and you can pick which countries you want to examine.

[@v_srikanth]

This is something I didn't know I needed to see. I'm not saying I'm completely relieved after seeing this video but I have a better understanding of the pandemic now. The clarity has bought some calmness in my turbulent mind and I appreciate the meticulous efforts the creator has put in to show the bigger picture. Thank you Minute Physics!

[@katiegunzz8525]

Srikãnth V well said

[@AR-ob7nl]

I don’t know why this gives you calm. This graph shows that only 2 countries (South Korea and China) have SLOWED the spread (not even stopped) and that every other country still has rapid exponential spread of the virus

[@uniontoke420]

@@AR-ob7nl That and China is not being completely honest about their death toll numbers

[@asasheffield9971]

@@AR-ob7nl This can't be said enough. Why in the world would this give anyone peace of mind? The answer is that despite how informative this video is, it's still over the heads of common lay people. And that's not even necessarily their fault or a shot at their intelligence. There was just too much that *wasn't* said concerning this whole ordeal in this video.

[@hitrapperandartistdababy]

A R AS OF NOW! Thats the part you forget. Like he literally said, its hard to follow this thing accurately because of how fast its going. This is only a question of time. Not about wether we will beat it or not. Because we will. Thats certain

[@akshatvikramsingh8293]

For those who couldn’t read it 1:31 hertzsprung-Russell, anyone?

[@eron17]

I wonder if these countries turn red.

[@sYnSilentStorm]

@@eron17 only when traveling away from us.

[@tarananantasagar2999]

red shift

[@cezarcatalin1406]

Benjamin Hippler Oh their flags will turn red, it’s not a question of if but when

[@sempaiSteve1]

Love your work, mate

[@saschafischer5654]

Can you do an update on this chart that would be really cool.

[@jasongrundy1717]

"China" is 1.4 billion people, "US" is 0.33 billion people, "Italy" is 0.06 billion people. They also have dramatically different population densities.

[@riccardoorlando2262]

Which is why you plot new cases against total cases. Different population means different numbers, so the data points are meaningless. However, the relations between those data points are what's interesting.

[@pengyigu7164]

Great point. We also need to put testing power into consideration. But the trends should be very similar.

[@ironsimonx4221]

You should use infected people in % of the total people of a country at the X axis.

[@fiddley]

Number of infected is correlated with how the testing program is being organised, and that is hugely different in every country. Total deaths would be a better metric, but even that is variable because people (mostly) aren't dying directly FROM CoVid-19, but death is attributable to some existing health condition, so that depends on how each country is recording the deaths. Even within countries there are vastly different population densities, e.g New York vs North Dakota. It would only make sense to look at it on a regional level. or Urban Vs. Rural perhaps. There's also travel in and out of each urban island - NY would have many more external visitors than Wuhan I would imagine, even if the pop densities were comparable. Yet another other factor is the age demographic in each area - Florida has an older, more at risk population than California. It's a tricky problem with many confounding factors.

[@user-wd6bu9ky3o]

@@fiddley great data