How Ukraine Can Win the Peace: A Conversation with Stephen Kotkin

On this special preview of the Russia Contingency, Mike sat down with Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The conversation touched on the latest news from the Ukrainian offensive, examined lessons learned from observing the conflict and explored the Ukrainian definition of victory in the war. Parts two and three of this conversation are available exclusively on the Russia Contingency. Sign up today.

[@gabriels2859]

I am Pennsylvania Dutch, descended from Hessians who turned coat and fought for the Yankees in exchange for land grants. German speaking communities combined with mass migration so that by 1915, there were approximately 2.7 million native German speakers in the US, including my great-grandfather, and there were hundreds of German language publications. At the outbreak of World War I and again in World War II, both the US government and the US public drew a line in the sand. You are either American, or you are German, but you can no longer be both. A few Germans migrated back to the old country, or headed south to Latin America. The vast majority chose English and became American, including my great-grandfather. I believe the native Russian speakers remaining in Ukraine will face the same choice, and they will likely make the correct one. Like the United States, it may have the knock on effect of creating a more cohesive national identity.

[@gmw3083]

Entirely different situation. Germany wasn't on Pennsylvanias border with the ability to flatten it and every state that surrounds in a matter of days. That's with conventional arms. Unless you got a time machine to send Keeve pronto, Ukraine is finished...

[@gabriels2859]

@@gmw3083 Ukraine's ability to win the war is a different discussion entirely. About ten minutes in, Michael brought up the problem of the millions of native Russian speakers living in Crimea. If Ukraine wins back the Crimean Peninsula, what is to be done with them? He asks, must they be ethnically cleansed, like the Crimean Tatars who were living there until 1944, at which point they were shipped off to Central Asia by Mother Russia? My point is no. There are historical precedents for minorities to willingly give up their old culture in order to embrace the new majority culture. It's entirely plausible that the vast majority of Crimean-Russians would stay and become Ukrainians.

[@gmw3083]

Except that Crimeans mostly consider themselves, Russians and Russia view it the same way. What makes you think Ukraine might somehow take Crimea without winning the conflict entirely? Russia is unstoppable at this point. Slowly and methodically dismantling Ukraine. Eventually, they will grind Ukraine to dust unless the Ukrainians with any sense take out zelensky.

[@gabriels2859]

@@gmw3083 You should listen to more of Michael Kofman's podcasts. It will give you a more nuanced view of the conflict. There are two fronts, the eastern Donbas Front and the southern Sea of Azov Front. Ukraine only needs to win in one front to take Crimea. If Ukraine makes it to the Sea of Azov, then everything south and west of Berdyansk is cut off from land resupply. That means they surrender or starve to death. Ukraine has already penetrated the first of the three layers of the Surovikin Line near Orikhiv. So Ukraine is very, very slowly gaining territory that leads to victory in the southern front. Ukraine has been dismantling Russia's defenses, while Russia has gained none since the Bakhmut Offensive. Russia's victory is possible, but far from certain. Ultimately, the reason I believe Ukraine will win is simply a matter of motivation. If Russia wins, what does anyone with a Russian passport gain? Pride, perhaps, but nothing more. If Russia loses, the only things lost are money and Rossiyane (but no Ruski). If Ukraine loses, their history, identity, language, culture and homeland are destroyed forever. If Ukraine wins, their survival is ensured, and Western money will likely flood in and invest in the nation. Finally, as a comment about the Crimean people now... it's very hard to say what they actually think. You know the old saying: Nobody treats Russians worse than Russians. Given the chance, maybe Crimeans would rather be EU citizens with middle class lifestyles and greater personal freedoms?

[@gmw3083]

You should listen to more of Douglas McGregor and Scott Ritter for military expertise. John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs for historical context. There's other names I'd mention, but this comment might already be hidden. When did this nuanced stuff start? The very, very slow walk to Melitopol. It was obviously some time after it became apparent that Ukraine wasn't gonna blow through Russian lines in 3 DAYS. Instead, it's 3 months later. Ukraine has lost at least another 50,000 fighters and thousands of tons of armored vehicles. Ukraine is run by coked and methed out waste caases. Basically, a troupe of hunter Biden types getting rich off every grift imaginable. They've resorted to grabbing boys and old men off the streets for cannon fodder. The Keeve regime, the See Eye Eh, nato, and MI6 have brought the conflict to all of Russia. More foolish strategy. Russians are on board. Even Navalny considers Crimea as Russia. There is no one in Russia who would willingly cede Crimea to Ukraine. These fantasies are just watered-down from 'Russia must leave all Ukraine territory before negotiations can begin'. Not that it will become necessary, but if the kremlin felt there was a serious threat of losing Crimea, Keeve and Lviv would both be leveled. Ukraine would suddenly come to realize what the difference is between all out war and the SMO. Ukraine made the mistake of trusting America. Never do that.....

[@emanuelsarimanolis2400]

Mr. Kotkin makes several good points about the the consideration that has to be made for attaining long term peace in the future, but he is still spinning what-if’s. Short term, mid-term, and long term goals all have to be considered. At this stage Ukraine gaining if not a complete victory, but gaining such a strategic defeat for Russia that it’s pressured to finally come to the negotiation table, should be the primary goal. Yes, many people have died and will die, but sometimes there is no other option but to fight an enemy until he is on his knees. Many in the West are screaming that talks should be had, but Russia only demands ultimatums(territory and concessions not deserved and zero accountability). Military aid, political dialogue, international pressure on Russia ( economic sanctions, keeping the Black Sea trade from being blockaded, etc) should continue. Mr. Kofman is likely correct in his assessment, it will be a long war and Ukraine and the West will have to stay the course to perhaps eventually reach the long term peace. Prognosticating is a tricky business, so this is a situation that may unfold in the unlikeliest of manners, time will tell.

[@SamSamSamSamSam]

How can Ukraine keep fighting when they've exhausted their manpower and would require NATO troops to maintain their frontlines? Is the holding onto the prospect of a 'Total Ukrainian victory' worth the possible knock-on effects of a direct NATO-Rus confrontation? The alternative is to "reward" the aggressor i.e. political settlement or a frozen conflict over the eastern bit of Ukraine, Crimea & a landbridge to. Tough call to make. Whatever the solution is, it isn't worth starting a nuclear WW3 over.

[@sergecherevko594]

Good point. Somehow, Stephen Kotkin omitted the fact, what happens is that Russia fights its war against West now, albeit on Ukrainian territory. But it's in the West's core interest make Russia defeat and withdraw, and as such to restore the law and order. Thus give the lesson to all other wannabe empires. Look at the East, e.g. Including Moscow, speaking about the winning the peace. No aggression comes unpunished. Because until recently, Moscow had learnt the opposite: in Georgia, in Ukraine, in Syria. Now it's good time to break this

[@jamesstmanhattan]

With all due respect to the channel - Stephen is too much of a treasure, please, consider uploading all the parts on the website. I've just subbed; I'll have access. I'm asking for the people who follow Stephen from the regions where there is no possibility to pay - yes, even the reasonable fee you charge - to access this highly educational content. This isn't charity - this is an education to improve the geopolitical literacy of the international community. Thank you for your service.

[@marcosdiego4780]

This. Kotkin's incessant reflection of facts on the ground whether materiel production levels, wider war considerations, defining victory, durable peace is exactly what improves podcast hosts and listeners. You don't need your own paywall. This Kotkin interview will earn you more on YT than your paywall ;-).

[@Pablo-cp2zv]

thank you for this. i am from argentina and it's very difficult to pay things in dollars for us at the moment

[@JustBill82]

Their fee really isnt reasonable, they are killing an excellent podcast. I understand the traditional ads/patreon approach isnt perfect, but I subscribe to about 40 podcasts and if they all did what WOTR did it would kill the medium.

[@alexanderryan8263]

Please realise the other two episodes!

[@williamjmccartan8879]

Thank you for sharing those thoughts, and I support the effort of trying to get the other two episodes available here on utb, money doesn't grow on trees. I appreciate the clarity of all three speakers and their individual evaluation from how I see this, and oh by the way, this is the field I specialize in, which should really be highlighted in the world of 30 second bits, thank you again for a great conversation.

[@antomrvelj2342]

Croatia won its war of independence 30 years ago and is in Nato and Eu.Baltic states and Finland are in Nato and EU without war.Ukraine must be helped to succeed

[@dro355]

yes absolutely. Za Dom! Though arguebly "winning the peace" has been a struggle for Croatia for many reasons including comunists still in government, corruption and so forth. But at least they're free!

[@romailto9299]

​@@dro355there is probably less corruption there than say in the German or Austrian government where Russian influences are strong and profound

[@cookml]

Where can I send money for the ticket for you to go to the frontline in Ukraine?

[@sneedle252]

Conscript all war supporters

[@romailto9299]

@@sneedle252 that's what the russkies do

[@LLlap]

This dude said that Ukraine has no army and USA will need to deploy 250 000 soldiers. He saw what happens when you "make a deal" with Putin - see Prigozhin. He still talks about deals and ethnic cleansing of Crimea. How about he stops his defeatest approach and actually suggest how to win?

[@pamelaiken]

A security guarantee is the only way to win this war; there's no end otherwise

[@jamesstmanhattan]

My personal definition of a victory would be Ukraine's joining both, the NATO alliance and the EU. Nothing short of Ukraine's being a member of the NATO alliance would deter Russia from invading Ukraine again ... and again, and again. Enough is enough - time to face the music and accept the truth for what its is.

[@AndreasDelleske]

Exactly. The "settlement" had been de facto acceptance of the 2014 invasion but enough is enough. We Germans will never get Alsace back and never what is now Poland. We shouldn't have invaded, duh! As long as we're playing nice, we can even live there and buy houses and land. Land grabbing is only ever an outside projection of internal incompetence. Same with little underwear poisoner.

[@justasimpleguy7211]

It was the push to bring Ukraine into NATO that is responsible for this. Kind of like the Soviet Union trying to place nukes in Cuba. People (okay, idiots!) like you should shut the Hell up. Moron.

[@robgrey6183]

You seem to be making a big assumption: that war in an eastern European s***hole has anything to do with America, and that Americans are willing to risk nuclear war or the destruction of their economy through the debasement of our currency. We're not. You'll learn this next year.

[@Martin-qm2lg]

Russia may likely attack NATO eventually.

[@drgeorgek]

Agree

[@Kiska777]

Stopped listening after 5 mins. Just because you can’t see how something could be achieved does not mean it’s not worth fighting for. You’re noting the emotional reality then dismissing it, Ukrainians don’t have that luxury.

[@MaramaoMaramao]

Sorry Stephen Kotkin about Crimea please call General Ben Hodges and he will explain to you the fundamental importance to get Crimea for the Ukrainians. You can see also the map and remember that Crimea was part of Ukraine since 1954!

[@MrAjfish]

And was also made that way by a decree of the soviet government. It's not like it was taken by force.

[@NathansHVAC]

Crimea is 85% russian citizens. Crimea should have a vote. oh wait. no elections.

[@MaramaoMaramao]

You will see soon how many will remain MF Russian bandits!@@NathansHVAC

[@NathansHVAC]

@@MaramaoMaramao I know. ukraine will gennnnocide the 8 million russians there. That is the whole point of the special military operation.

[@TueLesPigeons]

​@@NathansHVACAnd Austria is 100% germans right?

[@robertr.1052]

You're not talking peace, Kotkin. You're talking appeasement.

[@toddfromwork8931]

I hope your granddaughter enjoys the trenches she fights in to avoid that appeasement.

[@George-ur8ow]

Not every war, military situation or other conflict is "Munich, 1938". In fact, very few situations are akin to the West's response to Germany in the 1930's. It's frankly shortsighted and clearly driven by emotion to state that winning a long-lasting peace is akin to appeasement.

[@Milkmans_Son]

Appeasement is not Crimea, it's Kiev.

[@miha41]

A small correction. At 9.28, Stephen said that Navalny had called Crimea a Russian territory. Actually, Navalny had never said exactly that. Before the 24 Feb invasion, he did say that Russia annexed Crimea illegally, but he could not see how could Russia return it peacefully back with so many Crimeans supporting annexation. However, after the invasion he made a new statement, saying that Ukraine borders should be restored to 1991.

[@antomrvelj2342]

Navalny and Kara-Murza etc can only be saved with collapse of Putin regime

[@user-ru4iq3ss9m]

So Navalny is an even bigger loser than I had thought

[@concretejungle9608]

Nobody cares what navalny said - he is irrelevant just like all the rest of russians, especially those illegally occupying Crimea either from 1944 or 2014 . They will all be kicked out of Crimea .

[@afritimm]

Also noteworthy that scarcely any country in the world has recognized the 2014 annexations. Maybe NK or Iran or Belarus, but definitely not China, India, etc. Turkey recently reiterated Crimea is Ukrainians.

[@user-ru4iq3ss9m]

@@afritimm It technically is, but it’s not going to stay that way. Ukraine will cede it

[@markothwriter]

All of you who want this war to go to the bitter end, on and on and on.... you must join the military or go fight as a mercenary. Unless you have your life on the line, then you really have no right to demand that this war go on. You must have skin in the game or your opinion means nothing.

[@tabascopronto]

The Orange Revolution happened in 2004, not 2003 and nobody died there, it was entirely peaceful. This and other mistakes make me seriously doubt Mr. Kotkin's expertise on Ukraine and its history. While I don't disagree with his premise of winning the peace, I don't see a realistic proposal of how it can be done. EU countries are already blocking Ukrainian grain exports and allowing Hungary to veto military aid. NATO can't even convince Turkey to let Sweden in. Meanwhile, Kofman talks about how more tanks and F-16 wouldn't make a change. General Zaluzhny has specifically asked for 300 tanks to break the land bridge, and it was last year, while the land wasn't as extensively mined as it is now. How many western tanks were actually delivered by August 2023? Only around a hundred, many more "pledged" and not yet in Ukraine. And F-16 is a platform. You don't use it to rush the frontline, we could use them to shoot down Russian missiles flying towards Ukrainian cities, and deter K-52s from a safe distance, making the offensive safer for the troops on the ground. It's not a magic bullet that wins the war, it's just a necessary tool that is sorely missing in our toolkit, 1,5 years into the war. This whole talk, while important to have, is partly based on false assumptions and partly outside the expertise of the speakers, so take it with a handful of salt.

[@vaultsjan]

Kotkin is still dividing pieces of land and laws to imperial powers.

[@drverm]

Is there any better treat than Mike and Stephen getting together for a conversation??!!

[@justatiger6268]

In my head I'm changing Kotkin's words "Ukraine" for "Palestine" and "Russia" for "Israel".

[@cookml]

Given that 2/3 of this podcast are behind a paywall, we, the public, would appreciate if the authors of this podcast spoke as little as possible and let Mr Kotkin to say what he wants to say.

[@rockydopeydoge6730]

Win the peace - that is a question not asked urgently and frequently enough. Thank you, Mr. Kotkin.

[@heroncromwell7015]

Please give us the other two podcasts here thank you

[@afritimm]

Those that were optimistic about the counter-offensive made clear this would be predicated on ATACMs, F-16s, more Himars anad more tanks. There are no ATACMs or F-16s, and the Himars and tanks were dribbled out too late. As far as it being useless to take Crimea since Russia could always re-invade later, that neglects the high likelihood that any settlement will have Western guarantees and/or EU and/or NATO.

[@H3LLS3NT4SS4SS1N]

Slava Ukraini!

[@Cryptantha]

I think the Ukrainians expect to deport Russians that came after 2014, and rightfully so. I think other analysts are correct that Ukrainians MUST retake Crimea for their future safety. I think Kotkin is wrong on this point. They don't need to take Crimea, just cut it off and besiege it.

[@NathansHVAC]

ukrain can't deport from russian land.

[@dallysinghson5569]

Of course not, it will need to make it Ukrainian land first.

[@Cryptantha]

@@NathansHVAC sure, Ivan.

[@scottn1405]

Ukraine will take nothing back. Period, any gamblers out there interested in a wager?

[@Cryptantha]

@@scottn1405 Bet you 100 rubles, Ivan. I win!

[@dandydoodigery9854]

Where is this guy getting his numbers!? To date, 5 Leopards have been lost…5 of 73…and some of those were recovered and sent to Poland. Jesus…does this guy not have access to the oryx blog? Ever seen what is called “visually confirmed losses” 6 Leopard 2A4: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged) (3, damaged) (4, damaged) 9 Leopard 2A6: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged) (3, damaged) (1, damaged and abandoned) (2, damaged and abandoned) (3, damaged and abandoned)

[@jaymacpherson8167]

Does winning the Peace include Russia being rewarded with post-1991 Ukrainian territory for their internationally illegal aggression? From Russia’s perspective, probably. And therein lies the dilemma…the discounting of international law by Russia that can only be changed by Russia itself.

[@NathansHVAC]

CNN says russia lost 500 000 troops. And ukran just lost 50 000. Russia is not being rewarded. Those areas are majority russian population and they voted.

[@romailto9299]

They certainly imply that

[@SamSamSamSamSam]

The lesser of two evils; they are realists.

[@romailto9299]

Winning the peace would involve the disintegration of Russia. Ukraine shouldn't compromise, particularly not on advice from the west. It did so in 1994 and in 2007 and we see where this led to

[@ActFast]

Steve Kotkin is the best in the biz!!!

[@scottn1405]

You are delusional

[@ZarconVideo]

28:20 wow I've never heard Mike get pissed off like that.

[@heroncromwell7015]

Steven thank you More please

[@frankshifreen]

Dr. Kotkin is always brilliant always worth listening to.

[@paulmatters2641]

Confirmation bias helps you champ? LOL

[@pamelaiken]

I wish this was more of a dialogue. This dude needs to allow his guest to speak more. What's the point of having Stephen K???????????????????

[@Cryptantha]

He is wrong about Crimea. Liberating Crimea is necessary to win the peace.

[@paulmatters2641]

@@Cryptantha You are wrong. Crimea has already been liberated.

[@Cryptantha]

@paulmatters2641 Ivan, lay off the vodka and propaganda TV.

[@dancaulfield1008]

I hope in parts 2 and 3, Kotkin is allowed to talk more

[@TalkernateHistory]

You might want to change the thumbnail to feature Mr. Kotkin. Hes pretty popular on youtube. If you use a picture of him, youll probably attract more viewers.

[@roc7880]

training should have been done extensively since 2014, I cannot see the reasons why it was not done. and all the equipment should have been placed close to Ukrainian border, in Poland or the Baltics, from F16 to Abrams, to be sent in the next hour the Russians fired the first bullet.

[@NathansHVAC]

you forget that nato was promising peace in ukranie and the US would not take crimea for their navy. It was all a liiiieeeee.

[@SeattlePioneer]

I guess Trump was doing the things that PREVENTED a Ukraine war from taking place on his watch. Biden did the things which CAUSED a war in Ukraine and "WAR in Europe" Suppose Trump had been reelected in 2020, continued those policies and continued to avoid war in Ukraine right up to the present day.

[@pamelaiken]

Why wouldn't I assume that? Please enlighten me thanks

[@SeattlePioneer]

[@glenbolderson9279]

Since 2014.....when the CIA orchestrated the overthrow of the elected president of Ukraine....and if your jizzing your pants over your precious war you fkn POS......go there and fight it yourself.

[@mva6044]

@WarontheRocksEditor: Enjoyed this interview and other content, both here and through additional 'channels'. I wonder what Dr. Kotkin and you (Mr. Kofman) think about what my former college history professor Dr, John Mearsheimer is promulgating? Or is your honest opinion ineffable on a public forum? (and if so there are other ways to reach me) Happy to join in as a subscriber.

[@sadkyagzyetim3434]

The world needs more Stephen Kotkin content, well at least I do. I wish he hosted a podcast.

[@wernertognetti5956]

Si vis pacem para bellum. Ukrainians, we stand with you and we are helping as much we can ❤️🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦❤️

[@cesarbonnin]

In my opinion Mr. Kotkin is deeply wrong. Giving up Crimea will not bring peace to Ukraine. This war was not about Crimea, it was about Russian pathological need to extend its borders until reaching some geographical obstacle that makes impossible to be invaded. The current Western border, mainly Ukraine, will ever be a weakness from that perspective and Russia will never give up until taking full control of Ukraine, and then Poland will be next. Crimea is the current Russian excuse for the war, and it's not sustainable from Russia without the Ukrainian land bridge that is currently controlled by the Russian army because of the geography. In fact, that's the reason why Crimea was handed over to Ukraine in USSR times. The best and only way to ensure peace for some time is to make Russia lose everything it has got by force from Ukraine, including Crimea, and to allow Ukraine join NATO and the EU. Only reparations and sanctions could be negotiated, but never with Putin.

[@NathansHVAC]

8 million russians in ukrane don't want to diiiiieeee.

[@stinkydinkybuttmuffin9693]

Anti Russian bigot

[@emanuelsarimanolis2400]

The Ukrainians won’t kill Russian civilians unnecessarily unlike their Russian counterparts who kill Ukrainian civilians indiscriminately by the scores

[@NathansHVAC]

@@emanuelsarimanolis2400 The only russian waaar criiime so far is adoptions without permits.

[@SeattlePioneer]

Heh, heh! I smell someone who has been listening to Peter Zeihan!~

[@drexlwashingtonian2978]

Nobody is going to your website for part two. Great upload but had to down vote and wish failure for your channel and business model.

[@Perkelenaattori]

Dudes! I had no idea you're also on KZbin. This is absolutely excellent.

[@H3LLS3NT4SS4SS1N]

Tell ‘em Ted!!

[@SeattlePioneer]

Stephen---- These commentaries are fine, but WHEN when will Volume III of STALIN be available?

[@wp9860]

Kotkin's assumption that there is no evidence of Russian military collapse is not much of an argument in terms of concluding the state of the Russian military. First of all, that Kotkin sees no evidence of collapse questions how good his vision is on military matters. There may very well be deeply embedded mechanisms in the Russian military that will lead to collapse, and Kotkin doesn't see them or cannot evaluate them. Contrast Kotkin's "understanding" of the Russian situation with General Ben Hodges. Hodges does see an eventual collapse of the Russian military effort. The second criticism of this Kotkin allegation is that it's historically stated. He sort of leaves it to the reader to conclude that Kotkin's position that future possibilities of Russian collapse can't happen. I think its fair to conclude that this is even his position. This dubious allegation tosses a wrench into his entire thesis. Re: Crimea --- What happens if Ukraine regains its borders, including Crimea, and joins NATO? Overall, I'm not much impressed with the arguments here. It calls to mind the idea of how often experts are wrong.

[@Mengcharsway]

Exactly my criticisms as well. I generally like Kotikin very much, but I find his analysis here somewhat off the mark.

[@Marvin-dg8vj]

Hodges has been seeing a collapse of the Russian military since last autumn..however he has forgotten Russia could mobilise more men . He thought morale was low yet they kept fighting

[@Cryptantha]

@Marvin-dg8vj Hodges also predicted Russia would invade ( it did), that Kherson would be liberated by Christmas (liberated Nov 11), and last year said they should cut Crimea off and make staying in Crimea " untenable". He gets it right more than most.

[@Marvin-dg8vj]

@@Cryptantha Kherson was evacuated to hold a better defensive line as was Kharkiv.The Ukrainians have not won battles .Hodges says all Russian threats of nukes are a bluff. This is dangerous

[@Mengcharsway]

Whether Putin can politically tolerate another wave of mobilization remains an open question.

[@romailto9299]

The US has given a lot, but it's arguably still just a fraction of the value of the world's 3rd largest nuclear arsenal that Ukraine was perduaded to give up at the US behest and in exchange of security guarantees. The US thought it was a brilliant policy to disarm Ukraine and give the nukes to Russia. It enjoyed the benefits of that policy, now is the time to pay for it all

[@chrisstrawn4108]

Ukraine had the nukes on its soil but could not use them. The command codes resided with the Russian national command in Moscow. My understanding is tampering with the codes risks either the bomb detonating or being irreparably disarmed in some way. Part of what Ukraine surrendered was their share of the Soviet strategic bomber fleet. With this invasion and the situation with the nuke codes this may have been the bigger concession. The bombers would be far better equipped to carry Storm Shadow cruise missiles and other stand-off weapons that the Ukrainians right now can only launch from their dwindling handful of Su-24 fighter-bombers. I'm willing to bet they gave up their supply of cruise missiles also, since besides regular bombs the ex-Soviet strategic bombers were designed primarily to launch cruise missiles.

[@romailto9299]

@@chrisstrawn4108 I highly doubt dealing with the codes was an insurmountable issue. What's clear is that the nuclear weapons both strategic and tactical would have represented a deterrent to the Russian aggression. This possibility was always at the heart of Ukraine’s concerns, but the US thought they had figured out that Russia had changed... And indeed encouraged or perhaps compelled by the US Ukraine gave up its strategic bombers and cruis missiles. BTW, President Clinton has already voiced his regret for this disastrous disarmament policy

[@mikeynth7919]

It'd be nice if the host would get to a question and let Kotkin speak.

[@joanofarc6402]

Excellent discussion. I’ve studied Russia and China for 30 yrs. It’s so nice to see so many people interested in both countries deeply puzzling histories. Good times and bad times. I still have hope the Russian & Han Chinese will be a free people soon. Hopefully I witness these events.

[@NathansHVAC]

Maybe they will be free enough to choose who is on the ballots for elections? That is the goal for the USA some day too.

[@workingproleinc.676]

_Free People soon_ Free from what Westerner?

[@patwilson2546]

@@workingproleinc.676 Putin. Xi. At least free to choose them in a fair election.

[@SeattlePioneer]

Not the business of the United States.

[@toddfromwork8931]

Lady, the Han have never been free.

[@whatsdoin2392]

The psychopath does not target everyone, but if you are needed for their desires, they are not bothered by your pain, suffering and death.

[@Martin-qm2lg]

Important questions to help understand better the depth and complexity of this Russian war against Ukrainian. Hopefully the West can fix mistakes quickly.

[@patwilson2546]

This is trash. 1. Straw man arguments on Crimea that provide one side but fail to comprehensively address all aspects of an issue. You present only the points that support your argument. The argument for Crimea does not center on military terms alone. Without Crimea, Russia would completely dominate the Azov. Why don't you address that very obvious point? 2. Utterly false statement that defeating Russian defenses would be easy. NOBODY whose opinion is of any value said that prior to the start. NOBODY! Where did you get this from? Comments on KZbin? 3. Who was talking about capturing Crimea? The greatest hope was possibly cutting off Zhaporizhia from Russian controlled eastern Ukraine, and even that was acknowledged as an extremely difficult task. 4. Final statement about how Russia has no need to negotiate. Russians continue to die. The Russian economy has already suffered near irrevocable harm and it continues to pile on. How long will Russia sustain a war of aggression and at what cost? For what? The only "denazification" that Russia has done is killing Utkin. The whole "conversation" is talking points in favor of a frozen conflict - i.e. exactly what Russia wants. It is not a conversation at all. More like a preplanned interview ala Fox News where the host feeds the guest leading softball questions.

[@Cryptantha]

I agree.

[@gogo-uf8ow]

awesome episode

[@Aothis]

Ukraine was clear on the Russians living in Crimea. Not all but many will be given the choice to stay in Crimea for Ukraine or go back to Russia. No one is thinking of "cleansing"

[@uku4171]

Is this your first ep with Kotkin? Love that guy

[@jankowalyk7301]

Argument about wider war is false. Russia is no match and too weak to fight NATO and Putin knows it.

[@jeffreymiller9438]

I was always under the impression that the US Army maintains significant war stockpiles even today. The US Army hasn't given more than 10% of munition stocks to Ukraine as the senior generals won't sign off on giving more, even if political leaders would like to. So the statement that 'there's nothing left to give' is only true in the sense that senior US Generals won't give more. The conversation is about 'production rate' and 'industrial base' but it should really be about the release of stocks on hand. There are significant stocks on hand, only the Generals don't want to give it to Ukraine. It's the same in Europe, despite talk in the US that Europe has 'nothing'..they do, they just want to keep it in their own bunkers.

[@NathansHVAC]

If you didn't notice, ukrane only gets the expired stocks. They aren't worth the fresh stocks.

[@SeattlePioneer]

> Remember that in 1940, the French military was being defeated by Germany. The French President called up Churchill and told him he needed more British aircraft to defeat the Germans, and that France was the "decisive point" that needed to be defended at all costs. Churchill demurred, saving the Royal Air Force for what became the Battle of Britain. Mightn't that kind of issue be applicable here? Is Ukraine REALLY the critical point" which must be defended at any and all costs?

[@scottn1405]

The US can't provide what Ukraine needs for this conflict. We have no plants to make munitions on an industrial scale. Frankly the US couldn't move the Russians in this land warfare if we sent our own troops. Until western myths of Russia are completely destroyed, the myopic thinking here in the west will continue.

[@byronbombastic3421]

The wagner mutiny played a big role on the illusion that Putin's power is infallible.

[@watcherofthewest8597]

Kotkin should be sec of state

[@induhvidyooul]

what is the earlier conversation last year between Kotkin and Koffman that they reference early in the video?

[@TheRedHavoc]

The Collapse of the Soviet Union, Part 1 and 2 from Dec 23 and 29, 2022, respectively.

[@induhvidyooul]

Thank you!@@TheRedHavoc

[@scottn1405]

How Lotion shows complete ignorance regarding the events of Feb 2014 reduces him to the groveling status of his fellow FSI man, Michael McFaul.

[@jackedupvideos1]

Interviewer would not stop yapping

[@sandglokta4699]

When in 2014-2015 several millions of ukrainians were fleeing from russian occupied Crimea and parts of Donbass deeper into Ukraine was it also ethnic cleansing? Those people left their flats and houses without any ability to at least sell them because those regions instantly became poor.

[@59Gretsch]

If the war stopped today and every Russian left, Ukraine cannot recover and be the nation it wants to be. Tens of millions of the most fertile, talented people have left Ukraine and they’re not moving back. Combine that with the loss of men and if the war stopped today and they join the EU, mass immigration would begin. The notion of a “Ukrainian homeland“ Is in the rearview mirror. Because every decade going forward the streets of Kyiv will look more like Berlin or London than it does today.

[@ekesandras1481]

Russia will not only have to cease Crimea, but also East Prussia. Europe cannot accept such a forward missile base anymore, that also outflanks the Baltic countries. For Europe this is like Russian missiles stationed in Cuba are to the US.

[@dragoslulea7008]

This podcast cements the toutht that Stephen Kolkin have a bias for Russia.

[@rocko7711]

❤

[@LogicalDreams]

This guy talks about possibly "ethnically cleansing" an area... 😬

[@rmnair90]

Was that really a conversation with Dr. Kotkin? Seems more like a "bait-and-switch"?

[@NathansHVAC]

I don't think he wants another forever waaaar

[@nvonliph]

Ukrainian shell expenditure exceeds even the projected production rate after expanding western production. Not to mention the decreasing number of barrels they will have to lob it. This status quo is already-admitted by UKr- resulting in a Russian artillery and fires overmatch. Our interviewer essentially admits he finds it hard to spin the industrial side of this war. Ukraine is mathematically screwed.

[@ExiledGypsy]

usually agree with Mr Kotkin but I think we are confusing short-term strategy with long-term goals here. We are also missing more precise definitions of the terms being used like "peace" and winning it. Whose peace are we talking about here? The Vietnam analogy just doesn't apply. The war with the Chinese after the US left weakness of the Soviets as well at the time had a lot to do with how things turned out. Anticipating long-term future is the biggest mistake we all make. So, we should avoid resorting to that as a way of rationalization for decisions now. So, I don't think winning the peace is something we can plan for now. The animosity between the two has opened a lot of old traumas. The cultural direction that Ukraine took with the orange revolution has overtaken the shared socialist ideology built over the generations of Soviet Union. Russians and Ukrainians are not going to call each other comrades again for a long time. So, unless Russia is fundamentally changed the borders of peace are going to remain where Ukraine ends, and Russia begins. This Crimea obsession is also arbitrary. The fact that Russians identify themselves with the Greek culture because of Crimea is just another myth and bringing Navalny into the conversation is another useless bit of rationalisation. It is irrelevant. Putin cares about Crimea because of its strategic location, allowing Russia control over the Black Sea. It is to do with its added value for the Russian Navy and not Cathrine the Great banging her lover during holidays in Crimea. The way U.S. tries to demonstrate its global cultural sensitivity is almost cute but hollow in its core. A more sensible way is to look at what the war is about. Russia can have the benefit of doubt that it really was concerned about NATO at its doorsteps giving rise to the possibility of another Hitler or Napoleon, but it doesn't make any difference unless you want to hand the destiny of 100 million souls over to the other side against their will. The reality of the war in Ukraine is about a clash of cultures. It is the same thing Putin witnessed in East Berlin. West Berlin was a thorn is the KGB's side because it was a constant temptation for better food, better clothes, jeans, jazz, and Christmas lights of consumerism in all their empty promises. Putin is worried about reliving the same nightmare he had in East Berlin. Eighty years after WWII the Russians are still obsessed with toilets and they consider flushing toilets so irresistible that they steal them and send them home as war trophy. As bad as it sounds loss of life is really not the most important issue here. If that were the case, then the West should have dragged Zelensky out rather than just offering him a lift right at the beginning before Russian invasion started. The problem is what it has been right from the start which is how seriously the West is taking this so-called rule-based international relations. I am not talking about and ethical argument where both sides are hypocrites. I am talking about the abstract argument that everything else is based on when it comes to modern international relations. It is the same valuation that Putin made when he started the War. As far as the US is concerned, it is the same problem as in WWII until Pearl Harbour. That is the American's ambivalence towards their own role in the world and European's reliance on it. It is also the same problem with Democracy: governments leading or following the population's demands. Surely, there has to be a line in the sand since without a line somewhere there is nothing there but sand.

[@nvonliph]

Huh, I seem to remember Obama saying that Russia inherently holds escalation dominance in Ukraine. Also, how the US doesn’t have vital interests there whereas Russia does. Sure is playing out like that.

[@paulmatters2641]

As a historian Kotkin is a propagandist. As a geopolitical strategist he is a propagandist. Guess he is just a propagandist

[@antomrvelj2342]

M26 Rocket cluster bombs with 45km range and GLSDB with 150km range both fired from Himars would be game changers.Whats Sleepy Biden doing?

[@mickmacgonigle5021]

We are being conditioned to hate

[@rocko7711]

🇺🇦

[@samizdatbroadcasts7654]

Two great minds.

[@Cryptantha]

I think Kotkin is wrong about Crimea. It is more important to retake Crimea than Donbass. Kotkin is wrong to suggest that would ne "winning the Peace". Ukraine would win by getting its territory back and also joining NATO and the EU. Kotkin is saying give up Crimea for peace, but that would not work at all. Ukraine could be reinvaded from Crimea anytime.

[@Obey_My_Dog]

The only reason he is talking about appeasing russia is because it's a big country and has a large military. Take this argument and reverse it. How is Russia going to win the peace with Ukraine? Is Ukraine insignificant? Does it not matter to appease Ukraine? Russia has created generational rage against it's country. I'm absolutely sick of people talking about appeasing Russia. So what I have to say, how is Russia going to win the peace with Ukraine?

[@pamelaiken]

Good point. Russia doesn't care about winning the piece on negotiating any piece or winning any piece with Ukraine. I think that's obvious it's kind of a mute point.

[@john_smith_john]

Because the odds of Ukraine invading russia are extremely low.

[@nvonliph]

If Ukraine doesn’t negotiate (accept defeat, really) they will end up landlocked and depopulated

[@oleksiy2133]

Stephen is a definition of a brilliant academic absolutely out of touch of actual Ukrainian \ Russian thinking and history, People like that were absolutely sure that Kyiv will fall in 3 days and boasted about terms of surrender by Ukraine. Thus, any discussion about "winning a piece" is actually such a nonsense without any depth whatsoever, so shallow from his side. I`m a longtime fan of War on The Rocks, and this episode is one of the indicators of how "academics" that never been on battlefield, or even been to Russia or Ukraine construct their thoughts and arguments.

[@gaoxiaen1]

Stephen Kotkin has a better idea of what is going on in Russia than Putin, his cronies, and 99.999% of Russians. The rest have already emmigrated.

[@stephenjaworski5127]

What an amazing discussion by two of my favorite authorities on these topics. Damn, I might just subscribe.

[@donaldedward4951]

The best way oit of this mess (Maybe stalemate is a more acceptable word) is a ceasefire or armistice.. Then we may be able to negotiate a combined Russian--American (call it an internationals peace-forcc) followed by a plebiscite and the possibility of Crimea becoming a separate entity under the original Tartar control. Thus we all would save a lot of livea and money.

[@romailto9299]

The grudge and resentment can work both ways. Should the Crimea remain in Russian hands then it's the Ukrainians who would bear the grudge and knowing that a new war with Russia is inevitable they would seek to restore their nuclear capabilities, given that the nuclear weapons is the form of security guarantee for the country which borders on Russia and isn't part of NATO. So the end result would be another nuclear state on the European continent

[@devalapar7878]

Did Kotkin confirm that the tanks were part of the offensive?

[@wv9529]

really paywall a kotkin discussion. My impression on him is that he didnt charge you for this discussion so asking his followers to pay feels miserable.

[@SnowBalling]

Kofman and Kotkin in the same podcast!? What is this, Christmas?

[@toddfromwork8931]

Hannukah perhaps! 😄

[@JKRAMPERA]

I was interested in Stephen Kotkins view, not this monologue... not watching this chanel ever again.

[@ivanlozowy]

Prof. Kotkin, unfortunately, completely misses the point of the current war waged by russia against Ukraine, namely, that russia's goal is the complete subjugation or destruction of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. This goal has been reiterated and made quite plain many times by putin's spokespeople, the highest level of officials in russia such as Medvedev, and by putin himself. This is what completely differentiates the russia-Ukraine war from the situation on the Korean peninsula and such comparisons are completely off the mark. We, Ukrainians, cannot contemplate an armistice or a peace which will allow russia to ease sanctions and prepare for its next war of aggression against us. This is completely excluded as it opens the possibility of our complete destruction. Experts such as Prof. Kotkin would do well to return to the drawing board and study the actual reality, as it is.

[@seintzeit]

Kotkin is marvelous and always thoughtful; too bad this bloviator sucks out all the air from the "interview"...

[@davidpitchford6510]

This is the new way of interviewers: they compete with the interviewee for words, mic time and authority. Everything is a "conversation" when we want to interviewer to STFU so we can listen to Kotkin.

[@ActFast]

P.S. His interviews with WOTR compelled me to buy an annual membership.

[@sittinheretoo]

Apparently you're more tech savvy than I. Searched for a membership link however, haven't found one yet.

[@jamesstmanhattan]

Look up the website.@@sittinheretoo

[@gaoxiaen1]

The USA should have started training Ukraine pilots when Russia stole Crimea. By now they would have been F-16 Jedi Masters. We've already been training Taiwanese pilots and flight crews in the USA for decades, as well as sending retired military private contractors to Taiwan at least since I've been here... since 1995. Wagner PMC was okay with Russia, so Russia should be totally cool about organizations like Blackwater/ Academia/ Sandline, etc.. operating in Ukraine. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Sending cluster munitions and DU ammo to Ukraine are perfectly fair and legal acts under inernational law, since Russia, Ukraine, and the USA never signed any bans on such weapons, and Russia used them first. Turnabout is fair play, Russofascist vatniks!

[@gaoxiaen1]

The USA and its allies could easily sheep-dip pilots and technicians, just like the USSR did in Korea and Vietnam, and the USA did with Air America and Lima Site 85 in Laos. Deniability

[@SamSamSamSamSam]

@@gaoxiaen1 Not a bad idea tbh. Probably is already happening/in the works given the Ukraine manpower numbers issue

[@paullevy4656]

Talking about monetising the war. Why are u making money off this interview???

[@halmoore8558]

👍🍺

[@martinsFILMS13]

Everytime I hear Kotkin I think Joe Pesci

[@edzus100]

the "not stephen" person has TERRIBLE MIC

[@themsmloveswar3985]

BS.

[@59Gretsch]

When they held the talks in Turkey, russion had no objection to UA in the EU and recognized Ukraines need for security guarantees. Their main demand was Ukraine being a platform for NATO presence which naturally could base missiles and even nukes.

[@maxrobespierre9176]

Hahahahahahaha.... Ukraine win? That’s rich!

[@whyukraine]

Nobody's talking about leadership. nobody's talking to the soldiers. The problem is a failure of Ukraine Military mid-level leadership. because they bought their ranks & bribed out of training, which was strictly Soviet anyway.

[@whyukraine]

EVERY UKRAINIAN KNOWS

[@whyukraine]

How can a platoon attack with no intel or planning? How can they take advantage of Artillery when they aren't prepared? The Kharkiv advance was stopped by panicking Ukraine officers. Idiots. They continue to hold us back.

[@scottn1405]

Kotkin starts out with 2:57 a flat out lie. Russia made no attempt to take the capitol. Russia sought negoti ations.

[@pamelaiken]

I'm not sure if you have your history correct here. Russia has attacked aggressively attacked Ukraine. What do you mean Russia sought negotiations/????????

[@vijjreddy]

who is this fellow talking about territory? The only thing these two countries have is territory.. so much they don't know what to do with most of it. Ukraine used its Russian speaking territories for target practice for its Artillery for 8 years... some say it had the blessing of USA to do that; well, without blessing of Nato , even the small countries Lithuania... would not have treated its Russian speaking citizens so badly. THESE SO CALLED CHRISTIAN COUNTRIES HAVE FORGOTTEN - GOD WILL PUNISH ALL THE SINS. I understand they blame Russia for all the excesses they suffered under Soviet Rule, but even Russia suffered the same; Stalin was a Georgian, Khrushchev was Ukrainian.. that was the Soviet communist style. SO, ATLEAST THE CULTURED PEOPLE OF EUROPE NEED TO DO THINK ABOUT THESE THINGS...and work for the peace, and not follow the dictats of USA.. which is only interested in weakening Russia with all these wars...

[@concretejungle9608]

It’s a waste of time to listen to two western ( both of russian & Soviet origins) media people with questionable motives and not a clue of the actual situation on the Ukraine’s front lines.

[@NathansHVAC]

ukraine is winning on all fronts.

[@pamelaiken]

Please enlighten us

[@user-ru4iq3ss9m]

Ukraine should negotiate with Russia a peace based on ceding eastern Ukraine and its coastline to Russia, while agreeing to never join NATO, EU, or any other western aligned organization in perpetuity

[@Cipricus]

Oh, so they should give up the territory Russia took AND accept to lose more in the future?

[@user-ru4iq3ss9m]

@@geopolitiikkajasota4404 My payment is the satisfaction of telling the truth- Ukraine must surrender

[@vitaliitomas8121]

So signing it's death warrant, is that it?

[@RandomAussieGuy87]

I've got a better idea - Russia removes all its forces from Ukraine and reinstates Ukraine's territorial integrity, including Crimea. Sound good?

[@user-ru4iq3ss9m]

@@vitaliitomas8121 Russia will be fair

[@pravinsarvade7608]

But you saying Russian soldiers has low morle and low training and no more reverse and no artillery, no tanks, no ammunition, and no air domince and still standing and definding against so called NATO train Ukrainian Nazi army with with game changer Westan weapons and Russian only has shovels and grass and weeds and Russian can't produce weapons like Soviet union did from 1941-1945 and where are 24 February 2022 where millions of Ukrainian soldiers are and what for winter coming 🇷🇺🇮🇳❄️❄️❄️

[@karagi101]

Nazi army? You are stupid.

[@fra604]

Average Indian be like:

[@pcwildcat]

Bro said "forget listening to the pod and actually engaging in a discussion. I'm just going to paste this nearly incomprehensible comment."

[@HHindsight]

real life isn't a bollywood movie

[@pravinsarvade7608]

@@HHindsight but Westan and Ukrainian propaganda telling us Ukrainian cut Russian defence lines like hot knife in buter and they telling as and Hollywood movie