HTETEOTW Chapter 5: Ecological Overshoot

HUMAN OVERSHOOT: ITS CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
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Chapter 5 of this series presents the facts of human ecological overshoot and its present and likely future consequences.
TERMS AND CONCEPTS INTRODUCED
1. Natural Growth: Growth having the pattern that the amount of growth in any given interval of time is proportional to the amount present at the start of that interval.
2. Doubling Time: The length of time required for a population to double given its rate of growth. This depends only on rate of growth, and not on the current size of the population.
3. Net Primary Production (NPP): The total weight of carbon that plants and algae remove from the atmosphere each year and convert into organic matter.
4. Detritivore: An organism that sustains itself by consuming organic waste material from decomposing dead plants or animals.
5. Overshoot: Increase of an organism's population beyond the carrying capacity of its ecological environment.
REFERENCES AND RESOURCES
Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production in earth's terrestrial ecosystems:
www.pnas.org/d...
American Bison
en.wikipedia.o...
African Elephant
www.worldwildl...
Tiger
histecon.fas.h...
North American Birds
www.researchga...
Insects
en.wikipedia.o...
www.reuters.co...
Fisheries
worldoceanrevi...
What would happen to Earth if humans went extinct?
www.livescienc...
Human-driven Mass Extinction
news.stanford....
Fossil fuels in food production
sustainability...
Mapping the world's degraded lands
www.sciencedir...
Aquifers/Ground Water
www.circleofbl...
Overshoot
www.amazon.com...

[@MyMomSaysImKeen]

"... To such a state of affairs it is convenient to give the name of Progress. No one confessed the Machine was out of hand. Year by year it was served with increased efficiency and decreased intelligence. The better a man knew his own duties upon it, the less he understood the duties of his neighbour, and in all the world there was not one who understood the monster as a whole. Those master brains had perished. They had left full directions, it is true, and their successors had each of them mastered a portion of those directions. But Humanity, in its desire for comfort, had over-reached itself. It had exploited the riches of nature too far. Quietly and complacently, it was sinking into decadence, and Progress had come to mean the progress of the Machine." E. M. Forster, The Machine Stops

[@TyphonTheos]

Finally! I thought you might have given up on this series, Dr. Smith. I've never clicked on a notification so fast. Thank you for your work.

[@bsidneysmith]

More to come!

[@em945]

@@bsidneysmith indeed! It is a very exciting day.

[@TennesseeJed]

I was the same way! Thanks Dr. Smith!!

[@kirkha100]

This is so important to understand, in spite of hardly anyone wanting to understand it. Thanks so much.

[@10mey]

@@bsidneysmith I am so looking forward to it! 🙂And I am most grateful for what you have already shared with us! What a magnificient series! Hats off to you

[@Lukas-yi9vv]

Thank you Sid :) It's still interesting how many highly educated people are not aware of the fact that we are facing collapse. Teachers, lawyers, doctors, politicians etc. We are still the minority but the facts are crystal clear. It will be painful for the majority.

[@tomt55]

Easily the best 30 minute video on understanding ecological overshoot, and our predicament.

[@ariggle77]

This series is mandatory viewing. Dr. Smith covers the mechanics, while Prof. William Rees takes on the psychosocial reasons we likely can't or won't change course and save ourselves from collapse. Well done.

[@ventpipe55]

I’ve followed Rees since 2015 but never knew about Sid. Good post woman!

[@adydanger1149]

Thank you so much Sid, my family and I think you are the best science communicator of all time. We've waited so long for this!

[@URIR24]

Thank you very much Mr Sid Smith , from France

[@chrisp5413]

Good job Sid. Loved the fast food meal breakdown. As well as the "Malthus could not have foreseen what kind of species we were about to become"

[@loungelizard3922]

This video explains why my tomatoes are so vulnerable to pests and disease. They have been bred to be farmed in an industrial way, using fertilisers and pesticides that I don't use. Thank you for this video, Detritivore is correct.

[@SamWilkinsonn]

Either that or you're crap at growing tomatoes lol

[@loungelizard3922]

@@SamWilkinsonn Totally, I've only been a gardener for 3 years. Tomatoes seem way way more prone to getting sick than anything else I've grown. I seriously doubt they were like this in the wild.

[@greygatch]

Love it. The Orson Welles of Doomposting.

[@bsidneysmith]

THAT got a belly-laugh!

[@ziggyfrnds]

You are an excellent science communicator sir! Can't wait for the next part. I just hope it's soon

[@DraconicLich]

go sid!

[@egalitarianvegan8806]

Your work is spot on. I have been keeping notes. Every day I see new or present cracks in the complexity of the industrial civilization we find ourselves in. I am eagerly awaiting your next video on the economics of collapse. I suspect we are feeling the effects now. I have shared your videos with a few friends. I wish I could say that it opened up their minds but most chose to put their heads back in the sand. Reality seems to be a hard grasp for those who accept living in our current social delusion.

[@MattAngiono]

I don't think most people are yet capable of facing this. It's hard to accept that we may be at the end of the ride. I really hope not, but the evidence suggests bad things await. No one in their right mind would want to give up their ignorance to understand such things. Unless we truly want to save ourselves.... The sad thing is that solutions are still available if we can coordinate effectively. Most importantly, we should be seeking to end capitalism, which deliberately wastes so much just to build up fake numbers and useless power in a collapsing society. Not to mention the exploitation it is based on. We could also give up eating animals and free up about 75% of the farm land, which would have an immense impact on the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. Not to mention the immense waste and resources used. We basically put ourselves in this trap all to satisfy some fleeting taste pleasure.... It's pretty crazy once you realize that we are literally going to extinct ourselves over that!

[@em945]

Thank you so much for your efforts, Sid.

[@LeBaux]

What you described with bunnies literally happened on "St. Matthew Island" with deer. 29 were introduced by humans, population went to 6000 and then it took 2 years to get back to nice, round 0.

[@bsidneysmith]

Great example! Thanks for bring that to my attention.

[@roberthornack1692]

We are just another specie relegated to the dustbin of galactic history. Cherish the perpetually fleeting moments if you can, because essentially that is all we have, & be grateful for being part of this amazing world!

[@thecarpenter645]

Well presented. I’ll be back for more. From what I understand is that we’re taking from the earth all these resources and the earth gets nothing in return, nobody’s paying for them sure they’re paying for the extraction and production and profit but what does the earth get in return, don’t see any living in harmony with the earth in that. That’s what I understand to be a parasite.

[@10mey]

I've just watched the whole series. In a nutshell, brilliant! This is great work, really! Many thanks for sharing this with us.

[@darkain666]

Eagerly waiting for the next video!!

[@reesocles]

Excellent presentation Sid, really well done.

[@bsidneysmith]

Thanks Adam!

[@nicksince9487]

Thanks for publishing this, Sid. As you said, it's to be determined when/how this will unfold. Speaking from a more personal belief system, how do you imagine the crash/decline manifesting, and over what timeline? I won't hold you to it, but I'd be curious to hear your thoughts as someone who's dedicated a great amount of time to understanding/studying the predicament.

[@bsidneysmith]

Neils Bohr famously said that prediction is difficult, "especially of the future." As one who preaches making peace with uncertainty, of course I tend to think in terms of the spectrum of possibilities rather than in terms of "likeliest outcomes." My biggest fears have to do with international conflict. There are over 100 armed conflicts raging in the world as we speak, and more than 100 million people became refugees from conflict in 2023. That number looks certain to be higher this year. I have a generally low opinion of our current crop of leaders across the west, and worry almost daily that they'll continue to be so stupid it makes your teeth hurt as they blunder towards international chaos and the danger of a general war. Apart from that, I expect collapse to happen in different ways in different places, and at different times. In many places it is already more than visible. Look at Lebanon, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and many other essentially failed states. In the U.S.and Europe we are staring down the barrel of a failed financial system and fracturing political institutions. Civil strife is a real possibility. If there is a system-wide disruption, even of comparatively short duration, then a breakdown of civil order and widespread hunger could happen almost anywhere. I don't think, even in that case, that people will just sit on their hands and let everything fall apart at once. But there could be some real disruptions. I always counsel preparedness for that reason. In the U.S., FEMA has good advice about that. Generally though, I think John Greer (ecosophia.net) has it about right. It will be a long descent, punctuated by drama, but also including periods of stasis and even modest recovery. But I guess we'll all just have to wait and see. (You can find "The Long Descent," Greer's excellent book on this, on Amazon and elsewhere.) I'll try to say a lot more about this in a future video. Cheers. Sid

[@yt-xe8ws]

Nicely done, Can't wait to see the next chapter.

[@lloydseiter]

I’ve been looking forward to this video for a year. So good.

[@Tansub96]

I agree with pretty much everything said in this video, since it's essentially a summary of Caton's book Overshoot which I hold in high regard. That being said I still want to point out that the recommendations at the end of the video to "eat and produce food locally" aren't realistic for most people. The world is getting more and more urbanised, most people don't own any land, hell many people don't even own their own apartment. I am one of them, I have tried to grow some food on my balcony (strawberries, tomatoes), but I am under no illusion that this will sustain me in the long term, it's more of a fun activity. And even if everyone decided to farm locally, humanity would spread out even more and occupy the last bits of lands that even't been spoiled too much yet. I am not against prepping or trying to grow your own food, but at the end of the day it is a predicament, vast majority if not all of humanity is going to die soon due to overshoot, nothing we can do about it.

[@d0nj03]

We should probably be looking at mid-way solutions - not full-industrial full-fossil, which will become impossible, but also not fully-local fully-individualist. (It's very sad to see how even the most well-intentioned people in Western world can't escape the capitalist ultra-individualist brainwashing, which makes so many of us think in terms of what will *I* be able to grow for MYself, will *I* be able to protect MY stuff with MY shotgun etc.) Realistically, even under the most pessimistic category of collapse scenarios not every construction and farming-relevant material is going to vanish instantly, also the human capacity to coordinate and maintain moderately complex things won't go away overnight. In order to save as many lives as possible we should try to guess at which community-based farming setups could achieve the highest efficiency while still being sustainable in a fossil fuel impoverished world. So large greenhouses, vertical hydroponics(?), large relatively well shielded structures (as the weather is not getting any friendlier for crops), all these options should be on the table, and in fact they should take priority over high-sprawl single-family gardens which sadly are still the focus of many well-intentioned urban hipsters who don't yet understand efficiency or how important community effort has/will become for survival.

[@bsidneysmith]

Thanks for your comment! Of course, everyone is constrained by current circumstances. Although I do my best, I cannot follow all of my own advice, either. But I'm working at it. Regarding urban life, of course every city is different, but I observed in New York City when I was there that there were many locally owned groceries, and many of those got their produce from growers in the region. Most cities, and towns of any size, have Farmers Markets. I buy beef and pork from one nearby when I can, and I've gotten to know some of the local livestock producers. In Virginia where I live there is a thriving farm-to-table movement. Doing nothing else, one can begin to make choices at the supermarket. Beans, for instance, are inexpensive, easy to self-can to make them convenient to use, and are dense with protein. I like to buy lamb, but refuse to buy lamb shipped from abroad. I'll pay extra for regionally produced eggs from hens that are free-ranged, and just eat fewer of them. In the produce section, the country of origin is part of the label, allowing one to avoid fruit and vegetables from overseas. And there's this general rule of thumb: If it comes in a colorfully printed package, it's best avoided if possible. But in any event I don't advocate making food a hassle, and I don't think people should feel guilt-ridden if they can't make all the choices they would like to. We're building the future, so let's pace ourselves and just be as thoughtful about it as we readily can. You can take joy in the learning, and the doing, as you are able.

[@Corrie-fd9ww]

And people like Robin Greenfield are teaching people in urban areas how to forage, for food and medicine, and when it’s practiced properly, helps steward the land and life there. It’s also super fun and fulfilling in many ways, a natural antidepressant. Even for people who are busy and tired. I’ve found it actually helps with tiredness, burnout, anger, and also gives a sense of autonomy (for ppl feeling oppressed and helpless)

[@kennythelenny6819]

How do you think the killing will start in order? Internal conflicts, massive war (ICBMs launched), straight up purging in certain locations? Invasion of weaker nations by stronger nations military might in strategic resource rich areas? Launch of biological weapons?

[@kennythelenny6819]

​@@bsidneysmithDr. Smith, your thoughts on renewable energy technologies full adoption and the implications on overshoot. It also seems to me the course correction will start by affecting the advanced economies. Reduced food supply to the cities would inflict street riots on a major scale.

[@everythingmatters6308]

Glad you are back, Sid! Thank you so much.

[@ifinishedelementary]

Thanks for doing these informative and balanced videos. As a side note to the last part of this video, Zach Bush's cancer map of the Mississippi river system looks like a nuclear reactor melted down in Louisiana. This is mainly caused by the chemical soup, from the industrial farmlands, which washes into the water systems and poisons the populations downstream and Louisiana is at the end of the stream. As of 2024, we have about 10 years left before known/declassified chromium reserves are depleted and stainless steel production halts globally (the CAGR for chromite extraction is about 5.5% which must be included into total reserve depletion). Even with a CAGR of 0% we have only 13 years of chromium reserves left, unless the shadow "government" decides to open up the hidden chromium reserves to keep industrialism going. The shortage of minerals will lead to an industrial collapse around 2035 and most humans being gone by 2050. We will run out of critical minerals long before oil and gas. Most likely we will not run out of carbon based energy sources but the ability to extract and use them. There seems to be little possibility to move the 2035 mineral depletion point further into the future. One can start with "Geodestinies" by Yongquist (get the free, posthumously revised, PDF 2010 edition online) and then move onto "Scarcity," "Blip," and "Industrialism" by Chris O Clugston. "Geodestinies" is a little outdated but Clugston builds on where Yongquist left off and the numbers speak for themselves. The status quo will be maintained for the next decade or so with ever increasing force: Totalitarianism, martial law, war and genocide. On the positive side we still have 10 years to do certain things like dive the last remaining coral reefs, to move out of large cities and flee collapsing countries/societies. Most likely a small number of humans will survive for at least a couple of thousand years.

[@wpn_as8389]

Very nice presentation. Glad to have discovered you! ( Re Catton - great book. My only problem with it is that he ended up being imprecise about "technology," in some cases claiming that any use of any form of "technology" is necessarily detrimental, necessarily ultimately leading to collapse. )

[@tealkerberus748]

The other factor in the bunnies scenario is that female mammals who don't have enough food, tend not to be able to breed. So as soon as they overshoot their meadow, they will mostly stop having babies until the population decreases enough that the meadow can support them with surplus again. And yes, they will eat each other. Dead bodies and manure will also fertilise the soil and help it get back to productivity again.

[@timeenoughforart]

Which reminds me, I haven't actually read "Overshoot". I am a big fan of panic! There is a time and place for everything, the place is here and time is quickly running out. I can't see us continuing to sweep this under the rug for to many more generations.

[@petertucker3336]

I'd recommend Joseph Tainter's "The Collapse of Complex Societies", William Ophul's "Ecolology and the Politics of Scarcity", Jedediah Purdy's "Ater Nature: A Politics for the Anthropocene" and J. B. MacKinnon's "The Once and Future World".

[@bobsinclair8990]

Just noticed that the talk from 4 years ago got expanded into byte sized bits. That's excellent as it's far more easy to show off a bit anyone can handle instead of asking someone to get his world shaken while holding attention for a full hour. Thank you very much!

[@bsidneysmith]

Thank you!

[@mrdeanvincent]

Another wonderfully clear explanation of the complex dilemmas we are facing. Thank you, Sid. I hope we don't have to wait very long for the next chapter!

[@justcollapse5343]

Yes. Thanks for saying so Sid - It is certainly better, and a lot more useful, 'to know' rather than not to. We at JC believe everyone has the fundamental right to know which is why we instigated the #TalkCollapse campaign. All the same we understand not everyone is emotionally equipped to be able to consciously engage with the reality of our #overshoot predicament, and the attending inevitability of collapse. All the same, we try. Thanks to you, and to everyone out there who talks collapse.

[@behram11]

Thanks Sid, I look forward to your videos!

[@roberthornack1692]

Great video that sums up our predicament, well done!

[@AnneBillen]

Just brilliant! Wish we could have Dutch subtitles for this whole series - they are a far better and dense education than a master's degree (of any kind) to grok the whole picture of where we are as a human species.

[@TennesseeJed]

Thanks for reminding me of William Canton Jr.'s detritivore observations!

[@nunyabidness9758]

Thank you for your efforts. If the conversation can shift to being frank and honest like this we have the means to try to do better.

[@TheGRoques]

Thank you Sid!

[@tealkerberus748]

The funny thing about the infant mortality question is that reducing infant mortality is one of the biggest factors in reducing and even reversing population growth. It's one of the areas where human behaviour directly contradicts animal models. Human women can and do decide how many children we each want to have, and there are some very predictable factors determining that number as an average over a population. The first is infant, child, and young adult mortality. If you can reduce those to the point that a new mother holding her newborn baby has ZERO DOUBT that this baby will live to at least forty years old, then she won't feel the need to have a lot of children simply to play the odds and hope that some will survive. Compare this to various times in mediaeval Europe with up to 75% infant mortality and ongoing high death rates from war, disease, and crime. The second is public welfare. If parents aren't worried about their children's financial capacity to support them in their old age, they don't need to have as many children. This also goes for making sure that if one of your children becomes unemployable or disabled, that they will have enough siblings to share out supporting them that they're not an unbearable burden. When the government takes over that responsibility through taxation and welfare, people don't need a large extended family as a personal insurance policy. The third is that women have access to education and employment, so that they have intellectually and financially attractive options for their lives that don't involve staying home and raising babies. Most women will choose a paying professional career if that's an available option, especially if as well as the pay they can look forward to the respect of their colleagues and society for the work they're doing. The fourth is ready access to effective and reliable contraception, the right to say no to sex, and supports around leaving abusive relationships. The availability of choices in theory means nothing if the individual woman is robbed of access to those choices by an abusive partner or a badly managed society. If you get all four of these factors lined up, you will see the fertility rate of your population drop below replacement rates, as it has done in many coutries around the world already. With the total number of your population slowly declining towards much more sustainable numbers, you just need to get the per-capita consumption down to an acceptable level and the problem is solved.

[@johnthomasriley2741]

Good series. My field is engineering. People interact with this type of interactive system capable of overshoot every day. Like thermostats. I have followed this argument since the 1960s.

[@johndoe4073]

Thank you Sid. 🙏🏾

[@davidwischer3684]

Absolutely fantastic overview of human overshoot. It matches what I have known for a long time. So well explained thank you very much. Everyone should watch this presentation so share it far and wide!!

[@marymichell2329]

Thank you! I enjoy your way of explaining and your calm manner. I am relieved to think that our species is not special; that overshoot has happened before and will happen again. Be Well.

[@Azamat421]

No it won’t we’ll go extinct

[@garyhoover9750]

Brilliant summation of this huge aspect of the meta crisis. The ecological dimension seems to be nearly the whole story, and is also in itself almost too big to grasp. But I feel like you have made it possible here - at least to glimpse ecological overshoot and its implications. Thank you! If I may add a slightly irreverent(?) note: I needed some jokes! and now, sadly, I am trying to think of detritivore jokes. Surely there are some that will be good medicine to help salve the wound? More seriously, I appreciate your clear, concise, and gentle presentation - which communicates perhaps even more truth and loving kindness than the helpful words and visuals you have crafted together so carefully. Thank you, again!

[@bsidneysmith]

Many thanks for your kind comments. And yes! We need some good detritivore jokes. What did one detritivore say to another? "Do you want fries with that?" ... "Yeah, and supersize it."

[@ZakFromOhio]

Thank you Sid.

[@kirkha100]

This is very important to understand, in spite of most people not wanting to understand it. Thank you, sir.

[@aerail9145]

It finally happened, thank you Sid. Your efforts are greatly appreciated

[@centuriesofblood]

Excellent!!

[@collapseaphorisms6243]

Thanks, Sid

[@EastWindCommunity1973]

Excellent presentation, thank you Sid!

[@alexspringett]

such a great educator - thank you Sid : )

[@richardmills9994]

Brilliant

[@richardfunk771]

Hi Sid, thank you for being here to share this valuable information, can't wait for future videos.

[@ronpetticrew2936]

Brilliant series Sid, should be compulsory viewing.

[@iPaulyPaul]

Another solid video, thank you Sid.

[@squatchburger1580]

Excellent video ,thank you.

[@blueislandgirl_]

Fantastic video, thank you! You are so good at explaining complex things in ways people can understand.

[@MiS_4n_THr0_pic_NiH_il.i5t]

It's a shame these don't get more traction, but not surprising. A comfortable lie is more appealing than a discomfiting truth.

[@nirvonna]

We have no agency as a species to effect world change. It’s not possible to get 8-billion people in agreement on a common cause. It’s not possible to get one country, one town, and sometimes not even one family, to have shared beliefs of reality with a common goal. There’s a huge amount of denial out there, as well as simple disinterest and distraction, as well as lack of investment, as well as “I-don’t-care,” (could not care less); there are even those who view civilization collapse and even extinction as a very good thing. 👏🤙 A handful of people here and there who exercise their idea of virtue won’t make a lick of difference toward changing course nor affect the final outcome. This video gives a brilliant overview of overshoot, of which climate change and other ills are a symptom. Thank you! So why no mention about the best possible solution: stop having kids-not that there are solutions to predicaments. There is no fix for the fix we’re in. It’s too late to effectively reduce the human population at any rate. And, if anything, people express concern about the fact that birth rates that have dwindled a tad.

[@bsidneysmith]

Thank you for your comment and support. I don't generally advocate being childless as a response to collapse. For one thing, I don't think becoming extinct or promoting extinction is an ethical choice. But limiting child-bearing is obviously a sound thing to do. I believe that those who understand our predicaments and the ongoing collapse are best situated to raise the coming generation in ways that limit harm and maximize future well-being for ourselves and our global ecosystem. So that's another reason to consider having a child. Just looking around, populations everywhere are going into decline in response to crowding, resource limits, and social decay. I expect our total population to decline by more than half, and possibly by three-quarters, before the end of this century even if there are no global wars. In the event of global war, it could happen almost overnight, of course, but let's avoid that if possible. Eventually, I imagine we will fall in line with the likely long-term carrying capacity of the Earth, which, depending on how our climate responds to forcing and the extent of ecological damage, will be 1 or 2 billion. But the situation will likely take several hundred years to stabilize. So, if a couple has one or two children, and raises them well, I think they are contributing to a good human future, on balance, not taking away from it.

[@nirvonna]

@@bsidneysmith Thank you for the personal reply. It’s an honor. I follow matters of climate and civilization very closely and your presentations are top notch. The information you articulate so well is most valuable and much appreciated. Of course we can’t know exactly how or when, or to what degree, civilization will come down. It seems certain that the population of Homo sapiens is destined to go at least as low as 1-2 billion, as you suggest. I also see complete extinction of our species as a real possibility in the not-too-distant future. Large vertebrates will be most vulnerable as the availability of food and water becomes increasingly diminished. From what I’ve read, it looks like a Canfield (dead) ocean event is very likely. The oceans are heating up and acidifying with great speed. When the AMOC and other ocean circulation systems halt it will wreak havoc with the climate. And I would not think that land animals could continue to survive when the waters are dead. I must challenge your assumption that parents have control over the lives of their children. My son had everything going for him: handsome, bright, witty, athletic, musically talented-and then he developed schizophrenia, which destroyed his life utterly. And I don’t think it’s possible to be an ideal parent even with the best of intentions. It looks like today’s helicoptering of children does far more harm than good. Resentment and rebellion could follow. I’m one who does not view extinction as a bad thing, to the contrary. Why is that? There is no life without suffering, and suffering in coming years will become extreme. Why subject a new human life to such misery? Doing so strikes me as unconscionable. And there are no beings in non-existence who are missing out. How much did you miss life before being born? And given that 99.9% of species that have ever lived are now extinct, it’s clear that extinction is the way of the world rather than an exception. It is a fascinating time to be alive, to bear witness to what is transpiring. Of course no one will witness human extinction itself but it does seem guaranteed at some point since nothing under the sun is permanent-and even the sun will die. Also, once we have died, we will no longer know what’s happening on the earth that we left behind. I imagine the day will come when those living will have no way of knowing anything whatsoever about what’s happening beyond their local haunts-as was the case throughout the vast majority of our species’ history on earth.

[@Orpheuslament]

Thanks for this series.

[@kenpentel3396]

Thank you

[@neilmarsh8014]

I LIKE how this guy puts it all together. Well done! Watch to the end!

[@Knaeben]

When you dump a massive amount of free energy into any system, the system will go into overtime finding ways to use that energy. It won't discriminate between responsible use and blatant waste.

[@J.M.-nb4gw]

Yep and sadly people have upped their consumption of fossil fuels and other resources by a huge percentage. We have seen the enemy, and it is us 😢 even more sadly is that American continued to consume metal alarming rates even though we know the harm we've been causing the planet for many years 😢

[@nastaranrahnama8253]

Thank you for this educational video. It confirms the best solution is not to add more humans.

[@xj8713]

I'm a mech.eng who has spent many years at a dead-end job installing, inspecting and fixing streetlights and I guess I lost my passion for learning. There's something about this that rekindles some passion. Can you suggest any more books that have given you some good ideas about this topic? I'd appreciate suggestions from math or ecology or philosophy or anything, really, while I wait for the interlibrary loan to get me Catton's book.

[@bsidneysmith]

There are some excellent online resources, to begin with. John Michael Greer publishes a weekly essay on his blog at ecosophia.net, and once a month or so it is collapse related. Several recent ones have been excellent. You can scroll easily through the past titles, skipping those on Druidism/Magic if that doesn't interest you, to find them. Also, his more academic essay on catabolic collapse can be found at this link: www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf I would also point you towards Greer's books The Long Descent and Economics As If People Mattered. Both available on Amazon, for instance. On economics, the Surplus Energy Economics blog by Tim Morgan is pretty essential, as he goes into great detail about the role of energy in the economic system, and he tracks it in real time. surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/ Another blogger I like a great deal is Tim Watkins at his Consciousness of Sheep blog. consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/ As for math, I don't know of any books specifically about mathematical insights into collapse, but there's a good blog by Tom Murphy here: dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/the-energy-trap/. On the philosophical side I can recommend Order Out Of Chaos by Illya Prigogyne and Isabelle Stengers. That should get you started!

[@xj8713]

@@bsidneysmith Thank you very much, these look very suitable.

[@Mike80528]

I would argue we are the first species since cyanobacteria and the great oxygenation event to be the cause of a global mass extinction. That was one hell of a record to beat and one we should have let stand.

[@ecocentrichomestead6783]

The world ecosystems will recover once human population has fallen below carrying capacity. Supporting those things that help repair the ecosystem will result in a larger human population once it hits the bottom. The Challenge is continuing to pass on the knowledge we've gained. I wonder if some of the odd ancient archeological sites were not an attempt to warn future civilizations of collapse.

[@MattAngiono]

We could have a lot more land to rewild if we were to move towards vegan diets. They only require 25% of the land and a fraction of the water and other resources too. The problem is trying to get anyone to change at all... We've been raised to be greedy, especially about food

[@MyKharli]

So you have to accept being eaten by a fox beats a painful wipeout death. Is war preferable without self control or predation/fertility issues as a control process ?

[@donniemoder1466]

Oh boy. When he hit Tigers that was it for me. We is doomed.

[@didforlove]

already happening

[@EastWindCommunity1973]

Seven minutes in... somehow I don't think this is just about bunnies...

[@J.M.-nb4gw]

I know right 🙄 we are so screwed 😢

[@liamhickey359]

I think it means most bunnies will be the descendants of Elon Musk in a post apocalyptic dystopic Mad Musk sort of way.

[@johnthomasriley2741]

I now write climate crisis fiction. We need story to tell our young people what to expect. If it looks like the Great Depression, so be it. Society survived the Great Depression. We can survive this.

[@Joeyjojoshabbadoo]

Overshoot is nothing like the Great Depression. Unless you mean everyone's going to be a lot poorer. But unlike the less than a decade stretch of the GD, it will be permanent, and will just get worse and worse forever. Assuming society doesn't collapse into violent anarchy somewhere along the line first. Which is kind of what I'm expecting. So get the word out! To the young'uns.... Grim times ahead.

[@Glen-uy4jt]

Hello Mr. Smith, I have a question for you. Your explanation complex and interwoven is quite understandable. If we add in spontaneity, or natural principal we see that problems do not develop into predicaments. If we use synthetic process, that which cannot occur naturally, we do produce many problems that transform into predicaments. One subject rarely raised is what happens after collapse to the more than 420 operating nuclear power plants. Could the release of this radiation affect the atmosphere🤔? The chemical bonds of the atmosphere? The chemical bond of water? Sorry I increased my question from 1 to 4. The fourth is, will the huge release from unattended nuclear power plants destroy the ionosphere?

[@bsidneysmith]

If a sudden catastrophe were to occur, such as a general nuclear exchange, then the nuclear power plants might be a very serious danger. However, a mere collapse doesn't raise this threat because there will be time to shut the plants down in a controlled manner. Even in a serious disruption, nuclear plant operators aren't going to just abandon the plants. A good recent example is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine. When the power was cut off and there was a threat of bombing, the operators shut down the nuclear reaction and sequestered the fuel rods so that a nuclear catastrophe was prevented. It is reasonable to expect that this would always be done if the plants were unable to operate properly for whatever reason.

[@Glen-uy4jt]

@@bsidneysmith well you did not address my concern as to the possible chemical changes to the atmosphere caused by released nuclear fuel. You seem to imply that within civilization collapse, sanity will prevail. I agree that our species prospects fall under a predicament, mainly by our changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere. But it seems that we have reached even further heights of hubris, even risking the continuation of life upon the planet. It is one thing to burn coal, oil and gas for our short term prosperity and out comfort. But to bring forth tons and tons of highly radioactive material onto the surface of the planet seems truly ignorant. We may, a big may, be able to extract carbon from the atmosphere but we do not know if that will return a friendly climate to the planet in a realistic time frame. What will we do with a high concentration of uranium and plutonium atoms in the water, soil and air? To negate the prospects of nuclear power plant abandonment is like sticking your head in the sand. Of course there are a plethora of synthetic chemicals which we continue to produce and release with increasing intensity.

[@Box_of_Cox]

This usury, so typical: a piece of you for a piece of me. It's hard-coded; a piece of you for a piece of me.

[@icqme8586]

I want to speed up collapse. Any suggestions on what to do? I already get fast food and take away especially from places which use non biodegradable packaging and I drive an ancient V8 truck. Thinking about buying a vacation home and/or a pleasure boat.

[@krejslayer]

Collapse is a consequence of the culmination a civilization overproducing for centuries. Your individual action is meaningless.

[@nirvonna]

Hahaha

[@johnthomasriley2741]

Complex systems in overshoot do not "collapse", they settle. Population will settle over the next 160 years to one that is sustainable on a damaged Earth. About 2.5 Billion. The last time we were at this level was about 1945. A changed society survived just fine.

[@liamhickey359]

Read "Techno Optimist Manifesto". You'll feel like you're the guy in the sci fi film who's first to see the creature.

[@bsidneysmith]

I'm not exactly sure what you mean. I had a look, though, at the manifesto. It follows a familiar pattern: There is The Solution, and it is an obviously correct solution, so the only reason it isn't implemented is because The Bad People are preventing it. In this case the solution is better technology, and a free market, and the bad people are the monopolists and their collaborators. Substitute socialism/capitalists, or peace-and-justice/greedy-and-hateful, or indeed naturalism/technologists, and the pattern is nearly identical in innumerable such manifestos. The dose of Ayn Randian libertarianism is a nice touch. The point being that The Solution doesn't exist. That is not to say that technology isn't a very significant part of our story. It certainly is. It was technology that allowed us to unlock fossil energy, for instance, and in that respect it is at least counterfactually responsible for our extraordinary overshoot. But there are three points about technology that must always be kept in mind. First, there are always diminishing returns on innovation, whether natural or artificial. Second, the most advanced piece of technology in existence, without energy to animate it, is just a possibly interesting statue. Third, knowing how to do something (which is what "technology" means), is only the beginning. Knowing when to do that something, why to do that something, whether to do that something-these are even more important, and require greater wisdom than can be generated by individual self-interest in the context of a business transaction. Technology as such is neither good nor bad. It just is. But it always has consequences, and the most interesting and far-reaching consequences are frequently those that were least foreseen. Thanks for the comment. Sid

[@liamhickey359]

The comment was unintentional in its ambiguity. I felt like the guy in the sci fi when reading through it. I first heard about " e/acc" then the T O M a couple of months ago . Apparently a lot of the silicon valley tech heads are on board with much of this sort of thinking. I read the T O M. It's the antithesis of anything that interests me. A techno/libertarian fever dream where the only constraints to humanity's future is Luddism, Socialism, Limits to Growthism and not to forget- the human imagination !!!!.

[@liamhickey359]

@@bsidneysmith thanks for the reply. Find this subject very interesting. Will giving another listen to your series tomorrow. I looked at one of your lectures a couple of years ago. Was very taken with the ideas you presented and of course others like Joe Tainter, George Mobius? et.c I think certain strands political economic tech thinking awards itself far too much credit with "capitalism provides " ( an even socialism) narrative . Oil and coal and gas, the holy trinity , blessed maybe , but is safely sidelined by the boosters . The idea that humans run civilisation obscures what maybe is far closer to the truth : that civilisations run humans.

[@crisismanagement]

"Armageddon? It's not gonna happen in my lifetime." I heard that 30 years ago. Now people are telling me.

[@bantri256]

two coments with links have just been supplied.

[@KarsonsChannel]

Hi Sid, how many years do you think we have left? I could really use your honest opinion

[@bsidneysmith]

So, there's a few things to unpack there. Who is "we?" And "years left" for what? Collapse is already well under way, but it is not homogeneous in space or time. People in different places are affected in different ways. Some are already seeing severe social collapses; some 100 million are refugees from the violence of more than 100 ongoing armed conflicts. Many of those 100 million are starving or at risk of starving. For many, complete collapse is already the condition of their daily lives. We in the Golden Billion, that is, in the wealthy countries, are shielded from most of that for the present. However, our general prosperity has been declining for decades, and the decline is getting steeper. And this year in particular there are a constellation of crises, including war, social instability, hastening global warming, and financial turmoil, that could result in a sudden phase shift in our well-being and the stability of our own day-to-day lives. The thing about the future, though, is that it can't actually be known. The unfolding of events is fundamentally chaotic, and not subject to the kind of analysis that would allow one to make useful predictions about timetables or details. Uncertainty is a constant companion, now just as it has ever been. That's something we have to make peace with. I don't subscribe to the popular (among doomers) notion of Near Term Human Extinction. While that is always possible, I don't think it much more likely now than it has ever been in the past. A general exchange of nuclear weapons might do it, but maybe not. Climate change isn't going to do it, at least not in the near or medium term. Something will do it someday, of course. But I don't find it a useful focus when thinking about collapse. In the near term (5 to 20 years) I expect a sharp uptick in human mortality from all causes, and the beginning of a permanent decline in our population, until we bottom out at a sustainable level. I expect the global order to collapse, with regional powers like the U.S. in North America and Russia and China in Asia each controlling a large sphere of influence within which some level of stability can be maintained, but with many more nation states, especially in the global south, failing altogether as we have seen happen in the horn of Africa and in the Middle East very recently. I expect something like the Great Depression taking hold everywhere, and being kind of permanent. This will lead to a painful period of social adjustment, as we leave the oil age behind, with its private steel chariots and flying buses, it suburbs and shopping malls. This will take a long time, long enough that we who are alive now are unlikely to see how it all finally pans out. I don't know if you are in the United States, but Americans face certain special challenges that I will be discussing in a future video. Collapse is a process, it generally takes a long time, but is also punctuated by crises, sometimes with very jarring social readjustments, and also often including periods of modest recovery. It's a stairway down, not a slide. Usually. Stay tuned. Thanks for your question. Sid

[@azar1520]

​@@bsidneysmith Sid, in your opinion, is it worth it to bring a child into this world? I don't have children yet, and I am not sure if I should have one if I do not know if it can survive the coming collapse. What's your take about having children within our current and future situation?

[@bsidneysmith]

Many people ask this. I don't subscribe to the inevitability of near-term human extinction. I know it is possible, but then it has always been possible. If we are *not* to become extinct in the near-term, then continuing procreation is an element of our shared future. If each person (on average) has one offspring, then we are reproducing below replacement level. If each *couple* has just one, then we will decline to almost nothing in just a few generations. Since we are in overshoot, it is probably a moral choice to have few children. But that doesn't make it a more moral choice to have no children. The ease and material rewards of life that many especially in the west experienced during the peak of industrial civilization is not the normal condition of humanity, historically. Typically, life has been a struggle, fraught with danger. Yet, people were happy even in the midst of struggle, often happier than those with the most rewards in our own time. Babies have often been born with no prospect of a decent life, and then lived one, after being raised in difficult circumstances by loving parents. In fact that's usually what happens; every one of us has ancestors like that. There are many reasons to not have children that in my view are quite legitimate. Obvs., if oneself or one's partner is incapable, which is a common occurrence, then that's that. If one has chosen a life of dedicated service to others, such as many religious do, then not having children is a natural and justified choice. However, fear of what may happen in the future, in my view, is not a good reason to avoid having children. Live a full life. For most (although not all) having children is a high-order term in that equation. Speaking as a parent, I believe my life would have been less rich, less multi-dimensional, and much, much less fulfilling if I had remained childless. I also believe that I grew more as a human being by raising my children that I would ever have done otherwise. Take that as one person's testimony. Sid

[@coldspring22]

Everything you said is no doubt true. And humanity has very little time left before global collapse starts, wiping out vast majority of humans from earth. But what about some indigenous tribes who still live apart from humanity, especially in an island by themselves? If there is no global nuclear war, will they not be able to continue their life? Also isn't it possible for groups of human "tribes" purposefully designed to survive calamity be able to make it through calamity and largely preserve much of hard won Scientific and cultural knowledge of humanity? I think that might be the difference between rabbit population collapse and humanity collapse - we have hope of preserving some hard won treasures through the calamity unlike rabbits who simply go back to square one.

[@bsidneysmith]

As I said in the video, even in cases of extreme overshoot extinctions aren't common. Only time will tell what the outcome will be for our species. Given our adaptability, it seems to me likely that we won't go extinct, or even go through too narrow a bottleneck. But nobody can know what lies ahead, or whether it will be better or worse than we fear. The good news is that this isn't news. The future has always been uncertain, and always will be.

[@sheldonthomas4882]

What other species went into global overshoot in Earth's history?

[@bsidneysmith]

Most notable, perhaps, was the overshoot of cyanobacteria on the early earth, which produced the oxygen we rely on today, but which also brought about a global mass extinction event of anaerobic bacteria. Wikipedia has an article: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxidation_Event The history of life on Earth is very deep and long, going back about 4 billion years, and at one time there was only one continent, Pangaea. We can't know much about overshoot events in the deep past, we can only infer from the overshoots, small and regional, that we know about that overshoot must have been a common occurrence on both large and small scales throughout the history of life. Certainly our own species' overshoot seems to have many unique features, and spanning many separate inhabitable continents is probably one of them.

[@hansverbeek822]

The NPP-calculations somehow seem to ignore the oceans (approx. 70% of the earth's surface)

[@bsidneysmith]

Yes, the study cited only looked at terrestrial NPP. Ocean NPP is extremely hard to measure, so our impact on the sea has to be inferred in other ways. Lots of info is available, but of course in a short video one must pick and choose.

[@hansverbeek822]

@@bsidneysmith thank you all the same for all your work. I enjoy the clear and calm explanations. And I agree with all of it.

[@johnthomasriley2741]

We have no option but to build a sustainable society. All societies are based on stories. let's write those stories.

[@richdiana3663]

I've understood for too many years, and now this Doomalist knows too much. Enjoy the moment with less carbon.

[@ba_charles]

hteteotw? what the fuck is that

[@neilcarey2535]

How to enjoy the end of the world.

[@tray2637]

Stop eating fast food and start eating somebunny?

[@nirvonna]

Oh no. You’re ending with hopium. That was a disappointment.

[@garivczdanv1458]

Neptune by wednesday

[@bsidneysmith]

See the Prologue video for the distinction between hope and hopium.

[@persistence_of_vision]

There's an important argument to be made here, but you need to get to the point and make your argument in a more streamlined fashion. This video is too long and is overburdened with superfluous, preachy, touchy-feely information. Instead of rambling on about species loss and how many earths every western person is using up, you need to simply explain what resources humans require for life, which ones are running out, and why there are no alternatives. The main argument as I understand it is that we overshot earth's natural carrying capacity for food because of chemical fertilizers, we will run out of those chemical fertilizers due to peak oil, and alternatives such as synthetic fertilizers cannot work because of energy requirements or other reasons. I kept waiting for you to clearly make that argument, but if you did make it, then it got lost in so much fluff and academic jargon that my patience wore thin. I don't know how you expect to educate anyone with this kind of material. The only people who are going to listen to the end are already in your camp. The critical points here, I could have made in less than five minutes. The result would have reached a broader range of people and conveyed a greater sense of urgency. I get the impression that you're more interested in sounding smart and making people feel bad, than in educating people.

[@bsidneysmith]

Thank you for your feedback.

[@aerail9145]

​@@bsidneysmith I appreciate the longwinded explanations and metaphors. I admire your ability to create a story for the purpose of the lecture landing its points. While the key points can be stated in 5 minutes, such topics require digesting. And the approach of illustrative smaller examples of animal populations, or complete rundown on energy inputs in food production, is very fitting for getting the hang of ecological overshoot.

[@J.M.-nb4gw]

So yeah, basically we are totally screwed and have no one to blame but ourselves 😢 and at the end when he talks about our descendants making better decisions I just had to laugh 😂 there are going to be any human descendants in the near future