Hunter Greene's Breakout Is Here. (Splitter! Curveball!)

[@jcjvcjc98]

Totally agree with the point about keeping hitters off of his fastball. Sometimes you just need to have more variance to make a pitch shine. Greene's stuff is good, but there just isn't a lot of dynamism in his current repetoire, and MLB hitters qre mrie than talented enough to hit a good pitch if there's no deception or guess-work at play. Love the idea of a curveball with some solid drop to it to make the repetoire more dynamic. Splitter with more break than his current changeup qould serve the same purpose.

[@LockedOnMLBProspects]

Babe wake up, new Lance breakdown dropped yesterday!

[@vondt96]

Greene has a high ceiling, but I was worried he might end up in the bullpen, given his current mix and results. Still, the biggest thing to remember with Greene is that he's relatively new to pitching. He did pitch in high school, but when you throw 102, you don't need a lot of offspeed. His biggest issue right now is getting ahead in the count. Just doing a quick comparison between Green and Strider on ABs that ended in a specific count, Greene ended ABs while ahead about 50% of the time, while Strider was closer to 60%. When you're behind in the count almost 50% of the time, and the hitter knows you're gonna throw a heater nearly 60% of the time, you're gonna get hit regardless of whether your fastball has average (straight) shape to it or not. The curveball and splitter will be good additions, especially if he's able to get ahead in the count, but I'm still worried about what pitches he'll have to get him back in the count when he does get behind. The curve and splitter could be huge if he can locate those two offerings in the zone or induce some swing and miss while behind in the count. But if those don't work, a cutter could be a good option. I had seen reports that he had thrown one in the minors, but that could have been his slider(??). It would likely be easier to locate than the curve or splitter, get hitters off his fastball, and induce weak contact to get him out of some bad counts. Overall though, I'm excited to see what he brings this year. The ceiling is super high for Greene, and he's still young, so if he doesn't break out this year, maybe next.

[@LanceBroz]

Yeah, I think you make some great points! I do think he’ll use some split and curve behind in the count. But the fastball location has to come down regardless when he’s behind and he can’t throw it where it is. But the logical thing here is to add some kind of sinker to help vs righties behind in the count. I wonder if that’s something he’ll roll out this year potentially as well. Cutter I’m probably slightly against, could potentially bleed into the 4S and he effectively used the 4S inside to lefties.

[@vondt96]

@@LanceBroz That's a fair point with the cutter. I think it's more of a mental thing too for some guys. They need a distinct grip or mindset when throwing a cutter vs a 4 seam. He also might not be the best candidate because he gets a lot of active spin. For the sinker, he would need to kill some spin efficiency to get the seam-shifted effects so it might be a double edged sword going for either. But the sinker could be easier because it would be likely be off of some sort of two seam grip and might not interfere as much as the cutter. Getting either would definitely help. I usually say cutter because most guys have issues with the opposite hand, but regardless, anything that's in zone, and not a cookie would work. Great video as always. Look forward to the next.

[@manny5935]

Mr. Broz, as always I love your in depth analysis to a background jazzy tune, pour yourself a Hennessy and sit back, you da bes. Mr. Greene was recently the subject matter of a Nick Pollack - Eno Sarris debate. Mr. Pollack ain't have'n it. And he certainly raises some good points, especially about the quality of that fastball in that park, release point, etc. Eno is sweeter on Mr. Greene, has been for a bit. I have Mr. Greene,, he's at a price point where I'm not certain I want to keep him and the other options are very good. I don't think the news hit about a new curveball and splitter before their debate. I wonder if it is just ST noise, it shouldn't be, but I wonder if it is. I also wonder if it would have changed any minds. It seems like the answer to that is no, since Mr. Pollack's main concern was the quality of the fastball. Now, I would fully understand the argument that improved (average?) 3rd and 4th slow breaking pitches would give you more wiggle room with that fastball. I propose you all purchase a bottle of Hennessy (on me), put on some jazz and hash it out. I need a crystal ball here. [In all seriousness, you three analysts are pretty great. Great work.]

[@LanceBroz]

Thanks man! Haha Nick and Eno are awesome. I don’t think I’ve heard that debate of their’s, but I probably align more with Eno. I don’t think the fastball shape is “bad” as much as his location to righties behind is like … really a head-scratcher to me. Which I touch on at the end of this video. The shape is average and the velo is plus. Question is when does shape matter more than velo? When the results say so? 🤷‍♂️ There’s obviously a chance neither the splitter / curve impact him greatly this year. There’s also a chance he uses both 10%, plays with them when he’s behind in count, and the fastball quality improves as a result. I actually think he’s a pretty obvious sinker candidate, adding that might encourage me more than anything if he continues to lean 4S heavy behind in count and continues to get pounded. My crystal ball is that he leans more towards the Steamer projection than the Bat. I get the park is terrible. I hope that helps. I’d be curious what the other names are around there. Because I’ve landed him in some drafts and passed on him in others. So it’s hard to totally answer your question without somebody to compare him to. 👍

[@manny5935]

Did you watch Greene's first outing? Wondering what pitches he was trying out.@@LanceBroz

[@peterstedman6140]

With the improved season he's had so far, it'd be interesting if you're able to tell what's working better this time. I usually listen to the radio broadcast so it's hard to tell how he's hitting his spots or not. Looking at Baseball Savant, it looks like his K% dropped and his BB% rose, but he's getting a lot more soft contact and allowing less barrels. I wonder how that's happening.

[@nickfabrizio3288]

a curveball like yusei kikuchis i i think would help a lot it got tons of wiff and he was able to throw it for strikes and steal strikes with it

[@angelo8424]

I've already got a ticket to see the Reds when they come to Atlanta in July- I hope Greene pitches that day.

[@mariodegenzgz]

I really do think his limited mix is what made his fastball vulnerable. They know it's coming, and this ain't the mid 2000's, when someone like Justin Verlander came up and starters who threw triple digits were aliens. Hitters can hit velocity if they know it's coming, and if he had outings where his slider command wasn't sharp, he had nothing else to do but attempt to bully hitters in the zone with a very good but not outlier fastball. Won't work as a SP. I've long advocated for a curveball to give him a three-speed mix. I think it would really benefit him, both as a swing-and-miss offering and something bigger to land for strikes. The splitter would obviously be great, and probably get him some grounders too. He needs every chopper he can get in Cincy. The last thing for him is a bit more of a pipe dream, but I genuinely would want him to do it. I want him to call Verlander and ask him how he went about pacing himself during games back in his prime years in Detroit. It won't happen, because all SPs are effectively long relievers now in terms of effort, but if there's a starter with the arm strength to pull a Verlander and gain multiple ticks as his pitch count increases, Greene is that guy. JV used that to effectively neutralize the TTO penalty back in his prime, and Greene could do something similar. I just really wanna see him randomly throwing 102 in the 8th inning in one of these games after his first few fastballs being 94-95.

[@LanceBroz]

Yeah! You make some really good points here. I don’t mind the toggling down of the fastball, but it’s gotta come with an increase in command (decrease in miss distance) or something. And I’m not entirely sure that’s a good trade off for a lot of guys. Especially Greene who already has meh shape. Verlander has release height advantage and faced different-minded hitters for most of his career. The idea in theory makes sense. I just wonder whether a guy like Greene would actually benefit from it when you look at a sample of 100+ fastballs, for example. Over 100 pitches, is the 98 mph 4S with a 10” average miss better than the 96 mph 4S with 8” miss? Where’s the equilibrium between velo and control? Ya know? All in all, I agree that more pitches might null much of the questions I have above. And the lowest hanging fruit is to stop the glove-side away 4S usage behind to RHH. Appreciate your comments as always. You always put thought into them. Much appreciated. 🤙

[@BKF0]

Verlander really does seem to be an alien the way he'd seem to get stronger as the game went on. In my lifetime of watching baseball (which basically spans JV's career), I've never seen anyone else who could do it like he could, and to the degree he could. The closest I can come up with is Cole, but even then, Cole moreso holds velo through the game as opposed to gaining 4-6 mph.

[@LanceBroz]

Yeah, I agree with you. That might be something that other pitchers aren’t able to do. Or it happens once in a generation. One of those ideas that makes sense in theory but is so hard to apply effectively.

[@db6341]

a 3.8 ERA @ GABP is like a 3.2 anywhere else

[@joenickell6323]

🤣🤣

[@zephyrmania]

is extension also included in stuff+?

[@LanceBroz]

Yep! Extension is in there 👍 Don’t believe it’s as impactful as the other 3 variables I mentioned, but it’s probably 4-5th in that “special sauce” category.

[@zephyrmania]

@@LanceBroz that must be part of why spencer striders fastball plays so much better than hunter greenes then right? despite all the similar metrics and other things

[@LanceBroz]

Release height and vertical movement play bigger roles there Strider is throwing from lower and getting more carry Extension matters as well, but release + movement matter more there in my opinion (and this is likely backed up by the data as well).

[@timsfgiantsmem9382]

All Star 2024

[@LanceBroz]

🫡🫡🫡

[@ThePalePatriot]

FB performing poorly because he was just made a pitcher a few short years ago and "throws" a lot of times vs "pitches". Time will tell if he grows.....

[@justinalley3399]

Bust

[@justinalley3399]

not a fan of him Edinson Vólquez 2.0 i just dont see the hype

[@LanceBroz]

That’s a rough comp haha Volquez’s value in 12 seasons is going to be surpassed by Greene’s in probably half the time, and that’s if Greene is simply mediocre.

[@joenickell6323]

Mr Home Run ball. This guy is a joke