I analyzed 10 Top Strategists' Stock Market Predictions For The Last 10 Years To See How They Did

How good are professional market strategists at predicting how the S&P 500 will do one year later? I analyzed 10 of the biggest firms on Wall Street's calls for the last 10 years and compared them to how the S&P 500 actually did.
Who was the most accurate? Who was the worst? Is there any value in these predictions for investors?
Join me as we dive deep into a decade's worth of S&P 500 market predictions from the world's leading investment banks.
00:00 - 00:41 Intro
00:41 - 01:56 2024 Forecasts for the S&P 500
01:56 - 02:35 Top analyst compensation
02:35 - 03:45 Methodoloy
03:45 - 06:11 Ranking the 10 year forecasts
06:11 - 07:58 Why make predictions?
07:58 - 09:25 Common excuses for being so wrong
09:25 - 10:42 Conclusion and takeaways for investors
Mentioned and Interesting Links:
www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...
www.marketwatch.com/story/wha...
www.dsmann.co.uk/financial-for...
www.cxoadvisory.com/investing... www.cxoadvisory.com/investing...
www.wsj.com/finance/investing...
What You'll Discover:
-The most and least accurate investment banks in predicting the stock market's performance.
-Insightful analysis on the variation in predictions for the upcoming year.
-The real reason behind the annual release of stock market forecasts.
-The startling truth about how compensation and forecasting accuracy may not correlate.
-The implications of relying on short-term market predictions for your investments.
Deep Analysis:
Comparing the predicted and actual S&P 500 returns over 10 years, revealing the stark reality of forecast reliability and what these figures suggest about the future.
Key Takeaways:
Understand the impact of investment bank predictions on your personal wealth management.
Learn why the smart money may ignore these short-term forecasts.
Discover a more prudent approach to investing with a focus on long-term gains.
💬 Join the Conversation:
What's your take on the utility of market predictions? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
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ABOUT ME: I've hosted a personal finance TV show on the Oprah Winfrey Network, used to be a stockbroker, went to school to become a racecar driver (failed), founded a fintech company that provides financial planning software to financial advisors who want to help more people who don't have lots of money, and I consult with wealth management companies on commercializing applications of behavioral finance. I'm also quite fond of donuts.
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[@PreetBanerjee]

NOTE: The graphics should have used p.p. instead of % to match the narration. Percentage points are more significant than percentages. So for clarity, if a forecaster was wrong by 10 percentage points (p.p.) that means if they forecast an annual return of 5%, the market returned either -5% or +15%. This just underscores how bad these forecasts are (apologies for the error, no pun intended) 😊

[@sherylfrancis4163]

Thank you for clarity in discussing stock market predictions. I am a final year accounting major currently working on a presentation about stock splits, I happened to stumbled upon your channel. Your insights have inspired me to conduct a thorough analysis on the three-year predictions for Amazon after their 20 for 1 stock split, comparing with other companies as benchmarks. Your expertise has made me feel more confident in my research. Growing up with a small businesswoman as a mother, I have always been fascinated by the world of business. My goal is to become an entrepreneur who comprehensively understands the financial and operational aspects of a business.

[@PreetBanerjee]

@@sherylfrancis4163 Congrats on being in your final year! Sounds like you have a bright future ahead of you. Good luck!

[@sherylfrancis4163]

Thank you for responding to my message today. I just found out you're in Wealth Management, and my job offer is in taxation with AWM. I would appreciate any insight you could offer to help me ease into my role this summer after graduation. I believe in learning from experts who work in the industry, as it provides valuable firsthand knowledge. Because I do believe in firsthand "real time" accounts or people who work directly within a field of work. I am now following you on LinkedIn. Thanks again. Have a great day.

[@PreetBanerjee]

My prediction for the S&P 500 for 2024? Could go up, could go down, could be flat. And it will zig and zag during the way.

[@seanrrichards]

Whooo Dr.... looks great on your name. Deserved for all the hard work. Great vid!!

[@PreetBanerjee]

Thanks Sean!

[@CARL_093]

thanks and i have learn more on the markets whos the best predictors and etc

[@furkinhellman]

Very helpful - thank you!

[@OnlineLuc]

Real person from Ottawa... great video. :) Keep up the fantastic info! I appreciate it and forwarding many to friends/family.

[@PreetBanerjee]

lol - thanks Luc!

[@motorgazi70]

Love the video man, would you be kind to make an video on Mortgage Note investing, how to find notes and how to connect to banks to buy them. Thank you.

[@wiseview1444]

Awesome mind!

[@PreetBanerjee]

Nice to see the pornbots are here. Yay.

[@Helix5370]

Great piece Preet!

[@PreetBanerjee]

Thanks Brian!

[@Rj77331]

Really good content. Seems like a lot of work. How could this only have 3K views? Keep it up.

[@PreetBanerjee]

Thanks! My own fault for not uploading more regularly I think.

[@kevinbowrin8385]

Great video as always! Were you tempted to walk into the socgen offices and demand answers? 😂

[@PreetBanerjee]

They have really good security so no 😂

[@jacqueslapidieux3182]

SocGen's logo (No Change? or Down Big?) perfectly describes their predictive powers

[@PreetBanerjee]

😂 That’s awesome!

[@jacqueslapidieux3182]

It gets better, they probably paid some consultant like a million bucks to design that logo 😆 @@PreetBanerjee

[@MyCatSleepsAround]

Some famous investor said time in the market beats timing the market.

[@PreetBanerjee]

I’m just guessing but sounds like a Nick Murray quote maybe?

[@barbaras630]

I am waiting for your hedged fund video that your promised years ago?

[@PreetBanerjee]

Hi @barbaras360: I was working a number of large projects and got derailed from KZbin, but all of those projects are over now and I will be creating more content on my channels soon. Thanks!

[@NiklasAndersson7]

Analysts are called "talking heads" for a reason. My portfolio is well diversified in sectors such as oil&gas, electricity and grid-operators, maritime transport, defense, industrial, mining (real mining... Rio Tinto, Anglo American), lithium-stocks, water-treatment, telecom. All my companies are old, boring and provide basic necessities and they give me a dividend that I reinvest. The market can go up, down, sideways - I don't care. I stick to my guns, reinvest and reap the benefits. Works for me.

[@PreetBanerjee]

A disciplined, well thought out process should negate ever really having to think about short term news 😊

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