I asked you to predict 2022's spaceflight milestones...

On January 1st, 2022, I tweeted a set of polls and wanted to see how well we in the spaceflight community could predict what would happen in the year forward. You did pretty decent this year! Want to participate next year? Here's the links to 2023's polls!
Twitter - Erdayastronaut/st...
Survey Monkey - www.surveymonkey.com/r/BT29GL5
And here were last year's polls so you can play along and see how you did! - Erdayastronaut/st...
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[@zhongxina9420]

The delayed orbital test flight of starship reminds me of musk's quote "At SpaceX we specialize at converting the impossible to late”

[@ARWest-bp4yb]

🤣🤣

[@Brandon.M.Broyles]

Glad you got picked for dear moon! hope 2023 is more than you could ask for Tim

[@joannewilson6577]

Depend when and if he will came back...

[@benni1951]

I have been waiting for this video all day. Now its there. Thank you for all the amazing work you do!

[@laughingpearl]

I was a part of this on Survey Monkey! So exciting to see the results of the poll compared to the real results. Keep it up Tim!

[@kensuke1991]

Would love to wish you a happy 2023 , but i don't think anything's gonna beat '22 , so much fortune on your future endevours Tim ! :)

[@vincewilson1]

It will be a lot better if the Ukraine army kicks the Orcs out of all of Ukraine including Crimea!

[@flyingchimp12]

2021 beat 2022

[@neowise2020]

I've been a fan of your work for a while now. Thank you for all the hard work you put into sharing what we all love to watch! Congratulations on DearMoon; I can imagine that being very surreal. We're all going to be right there with you when the time comes!

[@frankgulla2335]

Tim, thanks for the nice review of last year's poll. And thanks for keeping us informed about the state of global space flight.

[@thomasbakkenmoe6605]

Been looking forward to this one :)

[@ryanfitzy1083]

Cant wait to see you go to space buddy. You deserve it. Much Love n respect man

[@mavi5477]

LOVE your explanations. So easy to understand. And HAPPY NEW YEAR.

[@bertblankenstein3738]

Decided to do the survey. A fun way to engage. Thank you!

[@Nowhereman10]

At 14:00. I would disagree with "no visible progress" for New Glenn since we saw a huge amount of hardware this year, including a major series of tanking tests conducted at LC-36.

[@dalel3608]

Its just the poll questions limiting choices; they all had progress made, just not to the point of pad tests or static fires.

[@patrickdurham8393]

Happy New Year Tim and I know you have that space flight running through your mind every second! Hope it happens soon and safely!

[@petereldred1541]

Happy new year to you and yours, love your work

[@mathewTK94]

This was my first time taking your polls. Here to seeing how I do and how the space industry does this year!

[@MrFunTimesMusic]

The starship has built up so much anticipation in my brain. I can’t even imagine an orbital launch it’s been that long. Hence why I’m excited to see what will happen. Have a great new year Tim 👍❤

[@matskarlsson3219]

Happy New Year Tim, and all subscribers all over the world! 🚀🌠🙂

[@DotsonTravels]

Can't wait to see what 2023 has to offer

[@EricNistler]

Tim Congratulations! I can tell that when you did your intro, "Hi it's me Tim Dodd The Everyday Astronaut" It hits you (and us) differently now. No one deserves it more in my opinion. I can't wait!

[@cube2fox]

Will be epic seeing Tim going around the moon 🌒

[@Farmelle]

The poll you missed out on was "Will an Everyday Astronaut be announced as going to the moon?" Again congrats Tim on literally being name called as the most influential/knowlegable/artistic space KZbinr on the platform today. Can't wait for your reporting on Dear Moon!

[@baddgeeksquad]

Happy New Years

[@Rocketsong]

Survey complete. No poll questions on Sierra though? It seems that they are finally, possibly, and dare I say Tenaciously, starting to reach some milestones.

[@FamilyBrown88]

At the beginning of 2022 we didn't know Karen would get bored with Starship and buy Twitter.

[@thedanielandjeanshowdaniel5131]

Happy New Years Tim !!!!!

[@Ethan-ud4pt]

Awesome video Tim!

[@MaxMakaan]

Happy Space and Moon Year 2023 🎄🚀

[@sipansibabdreddknot5179]

voted for 2023 hope more exciting space flight this year!!! and excited for you tim for dear moon mission!

[@thespacepeacock]

I got 9,5 correct! Can’t wait to see the milestones we didn’t see last year finally happen in this one. Happy New Year Tim!

[@chrisleaf7683]

Love you man Every single episode makes me happy

[@jeffshannon3627]

Dear moon wont happen in 2023

[@EverydayAstronaut]

I agree 😉 Hence why it's not even in this year's poll!

[@serkardis292]

@@EverydayAstronaut but can it launch before Artemis 2? Or is this info behind NDA?

[@erik4177]

Doubt it’s going to happen in 2024 even

[@IJ_uk]

Will they need a launch escape system for when people are onboard?

[@RukiNao]

@@erik4177 o think 2026

[@Rocketsong]

So pleased you got picked for Dear Moon. I don't think I've ever been this happy for a person I haven't actually met in meatspace before.

[@athul_here_]

Happy New year ❤️

[@kyle30312]

Tim, I like your tradition of an annual predictions poll. Would be great for the graphics to show not just the poll question and results but also the actual outcome (e.g. how many launches actually happened). Though you say the actual outcome, I'm better with visual data. Thanks!

[@Everydayastronaut.]

thαnks fσr cσmmєntíng, mαkє α nσtє tσ єnσs gαrdnєr rєgαrdíng вtc/єth ínvєstmєnt skílls tєхt σr whαtsαpp thє cσntαct ínfσ вєlσw::::

[@johnwatson3948]

I think if you ask mostly SpaceX fans which will launch first you’ll get a lot of votes for Starship. If this had been a betting poll I would have put everything I own on SLS.

[@D_Rogers]

Who knew the overdue launch would happen before the launch of something still in development? :) Live'n'learn...

[@johnwatson3948]

Exactly ha ha -

[@Danuxsy]

@@D_Rogers this survey is a good reminder of how stupid people are and that they in fact have no clue what reality is like.

[@mobiuscoreindustries]

@@D_Rogers There was a lot of belief on the launch approval being given far earlier than it actually ended up. There was a time where SpaceX were still looking to do a "just do it" launch for the orbital flight, which would have probably damaged the OLM but would have made it fly before SLS. But spaceX had a lot of time on their hands just waiting for a launch approval and so they spent a lot more time testing and building the system, to the point where they would lose the option for a launch as they were transitioning into new technologies and structures. Sine the OLM isn't just a launch table anymore and is chuck full of hardware they sure as hell do not want to damage it now hence why they are being a lot more methodical than during the SN tests. It was a hell of a longshot for Starship to launch before SLS but honestly not as impossible as it was when adding the retrospective of the legal delays and discovered failures during booster testing.

[@orogenicman]

Happy new year

[@SunitaKumari-rq2rb]

Videos are quiet informative I love to watch your videos, I just clicked on the link that you provided on Twitter . Great video Just except belated "Happy New Year"😀

[@SunitaKumari-rq2rb]

So nice of you

Fantastic video. 😍

[@jmsterdam]

So much for ‘the wisdom of the crowds’

[@tomascoke]

You're AWESOME tim!

[@WizardKingCorey]

2022 was a massively successful year for space and science. 2023 has a high bar to exceed the successes, but these fantastic people are going to try!

[@iadam1993]

Next you can set up that people can bet on this!! Make it even more exciting!

[@Anti_Woke]

Happy New Year Tim and team. Embarrassingly enough I can't remember how I voted in the poll, so I'll take zero.

[@harmonyspaceagency1743]

When you do it this year comment your answer on this video.

[@snuffeldjuret]

if you follow his link in the description you can see what you voted for :).

[@Anti_Woke]

@@snuffeldjuret Doh! I missed that, thanks.

[@morrisngechu75]

Grate work tim🍾

[@gangfire5932]

Tim thanks for holding off on announcing the winning results until after 2022 was _actually over_ . Too many folks jump the gun and make these best-of-the-year announcements before the year is really over, which is . . . kinda dumb. Time's Person of the Year "award" is a good example of this (they made the 2022 announcement about Dec. 7 -- _well_ before the end of the year!). What if there was someone who made a bigger impact between their announcement and Dec. 31? Time would look pretty stupid. And how would they damage-control that one? Issue a correction? Pretend that person had their big impact the following year? Ignore the whole thing? (I decided long ago that if I ever did anything that possibly qualified me for Person of the Year that I would do it on December 31st, purposely throwing a sabot into the gear works of Time's editorial staff. I encourage everyone who finds themselves in such a position to do so as well. 😛 )

[@VideoDotGoogleDotCom]

Hmmm... Seems like the announcement of my Ebola-curing fusion reactor will have to be postponed for 12 months or so... Thanks for the tip!

[@gangfire5932]

@@VideoDotGoogleDotCom I applaud your knowledge, Video, thank you for postponing your great achievement. +1

[@Hempage]

Idea for another long video: reentry systems. Would love to know more about how heat shields work.

[@zhongxina9420]

Athmosphere make metal hot, metal absorb heat so spaceship don't explode

[@TheEhrnberg]

Crazy to think this guy is going around the moon. I am so incredibly proud and happy about this :)

[@wbwarren57]

Congratulations on your success earned with much hard work!

[@thirteenthandy]

Yeah... Didn't do very well last year, lol! Hopefully I'll be more on the mark this year!

[@janstankiewicz9816]

Thank you, Tim for another year of wonderful space coverage. Please, if you end up reading this, 40% is not majority; you mean plurality if it's the biggest percentage but under 50%.

[@SFSALi]

Happy New year guys

[@sofamiller7133]

How much will Steve Aoki actually accomplish aboard dearMoon? A “concert” - just press play on a playlist during a livestream…. yay /s Write A song. One song. Whew, dream big! Actually write an album - the bare minimum to have actually “done something.” Write the album and perform the premier show aboard Starship.

[@t.mitchell9135]

Write a song.

[@ryanspencer6778]

You don't write an album in a week if you want it to be good. Though this is Aoki we're talking about, so being good is probably off the table anyway.

[@jocramkrispy305]

@@ryanspencer6778 I'm sure Prince could have done

[@OliverTheSpaceNerd]

What’s the reasoning behind the strange engine layout on the Stoke Aerospace second stage? Does it make an aerospike?

[@thebluedude1757]

Happy new year Tim! 1 Step Closer to 2 big steps for man kind!

[@harmonyspaceagency1743]

14:50 Poor EXO mars rover, I got a chance to go to airbus harwell during a competition and look at the 2 test rovers there, EXO mars and Mars Sample return are both waiting for new mission, at least the guys were excited that they would get the chance to build a skycrane

[@RichardASlack]

Tim, great update on the survey. We got things quite wrong didn’t we! Can you look at your lighting? The reflection of the ring lights in your glasses is really distracting! Otherwise a great video - looking forward to the next couple!

[@markoconnell804]

Saw Falcon Heaven launch. Better view from Cocoa Beach of the launch. Almost no clouds.

[@jessicakirsh]

Great video, @Everyday Astronaut

[@Everydayastronaut.]

thαnks fσr cσmmєntíng, mαkє α nσtє tσ єnσs gαrdnєr rєgαrdíng вtc/єth ínvєstmєnt skílls tєхt σr whαtsαpp thє cσntαct ínfσ вєlσw::::

[@Everydayastronaut.]

❀±𝟏𝟕𝟏𝟓𝟓𝟏𝟑𝟗𝟗𝟔𝟔❀ lєt hím knσw í sєnt чσu💯

[@kenshin2302]

Spaceflight mikesfoned! Just kidding, great video Tim!

[@harmonyspaceagency1743]

13:12 Didn't even know we were expecting moon landers this year.

[@bigdogben]

Really excited for Stoke Aerospace. Their promotional video was great and good brain food for my kerbal brain.

[@nasax3707]

Haha, the first thing after i watched their video is to open kerbal

[@bigdogben]

@@nasax3707 same i recreated some of it with mods and did pretty well. both stages can land.

[@harmonyspaceagency1743]

Crazy to think a single booster has launched 15 times, and everyone else is still at 1 and done

[@UncleKennysPlace]

Technically, BO has one reused booster. And one in pieces.

[@placeholdername0000]

@@josephperry127 Well, they've launched deep space missions before.

[@ryanhamstra49]

Spacex sent a car toward mars…. That’s outside LEO. They routinely do GEO orbits. RocketLab hasn’t reflown, but they are actually trying which is more than I can say for anyone else….

[@harmonyspaceagency1743]

@@josephperry127 I mean you can't really compare anyone current to NASA.

[@rkm237]

@@harmonyspaceagency1743 Can't compare in terms of Taco Bell consumption?

[@michaellewis1211]

Awesome video, may I ask where you got the Falcon 9 / Dragon model, on the desk behind you? I'd love to get one.

[@EverydayAstronaut]

everydayastronaut.com/shop !!! They’ll be restocked here by the end of the month 👍

[@molekulaTV]

The angle of a launch with some people standing cheering there is mmmmuch better than without people. (!)

[@jebes909090]

nice to see that dual booster landing with one landing in fog and the other landing on a bright sunny day...................................................

[@xubinyang5]

谢谢！

[@IamZed]

Is that a new set? I like it a lot.

[@Oldman5261]

You might try moving those two circular lights off to the side or raising them higher to prevent them from reflecting off of your glasses. They were a little distracting. Live and learn 😊.

[@pop5678eye]

For anyone still holding high hopes for Starship you are blind to the evidence. Yes, initially I too was one of those who bought into Musk's promises until I learned he has a long pattern of over-promising and under-delivering. Thus far the high mark of the whole project has been to launch the ship part 10km in the air and have it return to the same spot it launched from. Technologically impressive but a far cry from orbital spaceflight for this design. That's not to say SpaceX doesn't do any good. The Falcon 9 series is amazing! However we need to face the possibility that the current Starship design may be a dead-end. It still hasn't made it to orbit nor is there any scheduled demonstration of the in-orbit refueling that the concept relies on. Musk also continues to avoid answering any questions about the supposed '100 capacity' crew module that by most people who understand the basic needs of human spaceflight have said is much lower some say as low as 8. Musk is really good at the hype as well as getting multi-billion dollar government (read: you the taxpayer) subsidies. I say continue hoping but stop pinning your hopes to the hype.

[@snuffeldjuret]

did he under deliver on F9? On Starlink?

[@simonm1447]

The starship program started just 3 years ago, so it's still in the early phase. It needs its time, Space X has engineers at work, no magicians. SLS needed 11 years to fly, and most of the components had been existed before. The early flights will be cargo only anyways, so a crewed module isn't the most urgent thing for now to develop

[@pop5678eye]

@@snuffeldjuret There a knee-jerk fanatic goes again immediately diverting away from the topic I offered. Which part of my post criticized Falcon 9? NONE of it! How about reading the whole post first where I explicitly praise Falcon 9?

[@pop5678eye]

@@simonm1447 To say the Starship program started 3 years ago is an oversimplification. The overall concept and drafts were already proposed by 2017 and they too were daughters of earlier promises and then design already started just waiting for a place to launch from. 3 years ago is just when the launch facilities for it were starting to get built and flight tests began. What I can definitely say is that Musk kept making promises about its projected milestones that were believed by his fans (I was among them) but in retrospect were obviously unrealistic. I am just warning people to look at the actual facts of what is happening and not what Musk says is about to happen.

[@snuffeldjuret]

@@pop5678eye It goes against what you claim to be a pattern. The reality is that this pattern generally exist in all aspects of space travel, SpaceX just happens to be closest to fulfilling the lofty goals, and people like you can't stand that.

[@philipwilliams7947]

For the James Webb, if you remember Hubble when it launched, didnt work right because the mirror was not ground correctly. they had to send the shuttle up to put glasses (corrective lenses) to make it work right. So I imagine, your line of questioning went down that line.

[@Sbbbb476]

When u releasing ur astro awards man? Its always a treat :)

[@maddyboistats925]

LETS GOO

[@evel5771]

Congrats bud was a great year for science ,keep up the good work because hard work pays off as you can attest :)

[@mm-dw4rr]

Go Team Tim! ❤

[@johnmichaelymascasimpan9853]

I remembered I participated in that poll but never remembered my answer. Still enjoying this though.

[@crckdns]

Honestly..I already gave up on following the spaceship topic, at first the developments were really fast pace, but now it's just not mowing at all (some static fire tests aren't some interesting events) And I doubt that anything big will happen this year, not a staked spaceship takeoff, nor even orbital flight

[@projectw.a.a.p.f.t.a.d7762]

As much as I love Space X and all of its accomplishments but I believe the 3d printing will eventually out do any competition that doesn't implement it. Watching 3d printing technology perfected is going to be amazing.

[@vincewilson1]

Elon is well aware of this fact.

[@samuk9816]

It does reduce the alloy options and obtainable tensile strength, and most crucially: it's almost certainly not the most economical for volume production. So if you want to make a thousand pieces of something, you're better of making a custom factory.

[@chrisdrake7849]

Very nice.

[@arjensmit6684]

So the TLDR is: No progress on the big rockets of the future. Great progress on the mini rockets.

[@lifeon2wheels83]

The glare in your glasses is pretty cool. Free special effects.

[@kataseiko]

That rocket rising out of the ground fog was the best picture of the year in my opinion. Too bad I can't find any good 3840x1080 version..

[@CreativeThinkingSujith]

Yes i remember this

[@TheKevlar]

No one was listening to Elon when he said "a fully reusable rocket is incredibly hard to do. That's why no one has done it yet". The launchpad technology is not up to the task yet. I think the deluge of water is now more important for the pad than the ship...

[@michaelreid2329]

It would be an interesting development for SpaceX to alter their Falcon launch procedure so as to leave a redesign booster in orbit, re-dock the Dragon capsule and then do a de-orbit burn and Return to Launch landing. I mean if the reliability of the landing is SO high, use it.

[@vincewilson1]

That would be a very difficult thing to do. Lots of physics to work out and it probably lands on the drone ship so how would the astronauts get down?

[@Jaker788]

The booster doesn't get even a little close to orbital velocity, and then to de orbit without burning up would require a ton of fuel with the way it's designed to land, it'd spiral out of control in size and weight (rocket equation). It's just a booster man, it already sacrifices half it's payload capability with re use and has to stage super early to be recoverable (center core of FH is too fast and high altitude to be recovered consistently or at all) The second stage is the orbital vehicle, and there's a reason SpaceX doesn't try to recover it and instead is working on the Starship system to be a recoverable orbital vehicle.

[@SouthDunedain]

10/24. Better than I expected at 2/13, but I don’t think I’ll be giving up the day job any time soon.

[@davidlabedz2046]

Looking forward to several space flight milestones on 2023. Starship/SuperHeavy and Vulcan for sure. More Falcon Heavy launches too!

[@davidmcsween]

Yay space... arrggh headroom 🤣

[@mycroft16]

So glad I called SLS right. There were just so so many untested and unknown parts for the Starship.

[@TheEvilmooseofdoom]

Honestly it wasn't much of a call. They're were/are in VERY different places in development.

[@wheresmymoneydenny]

61 launches = 1 launch every 5.99 days. What a testament to not only reusability but the operational efficiency SpaceX has created. Considering supply chain sourcing, manufacturing, assembly, preflight testing, launch window/weather requirements, etc. all playing off each other this is just insane.

[@gnarly706]

I think the rocket will work, but I'm unsure about the landing. But with legs or better catch arms could work.

[@Everydayastronaut.]

thαnks fσr cσmmєntíng, mαkє α nσtє tσ єnσs gαrdnєr rєgαrdíng вtc/єth ínvєstmєnt skílls tєхt σr whαtsαpp thє cσntαct ínfσ вєlσw::::

[@Everydayastronaut.]

❀±𝟏𝟕𝟏𝟓𝟓𝟏𝟑𝟗𝟗𝟔𝟔❀ lєt hím knσw í sєnt чσu💯

[@Joe-xq3zu]

It's amazing how Falcon now represents a rather notable percentage of all orbital launches EVER, and a shocking portion of that has been in the last three years.

[@funawesome2006]

If CFT happens in April when will Starliner launch on Vulcan, and how many missions will Starliner have on Atlas V before moving to Vulcan?

[@EverydayAstronaut]

All Starliner missions have an Atlas V already allotted from them 👍

[@CandynoseTwinskins]

Tim is smooth and his surroundings are smooth haha

[@tvngo85]

One thing that I didn’t would happen in 2022 is Tim being announced as part of the Dear Moon crew.

[@pjpalmans5046]

For next years poll. How many times does space debri hits a civilian area?

[@wolfelkan8183]

Can you track the individual votes? Did anyone guess correctly on all 24 questions?

[@harmonyspaceagency1743]

9:57 is that the rocket from moonraker?

[@andreabindolini7452]

I will be frankly surprised if Starship will launch successfully before the end of 2023.

[@thricefan89]

No kidding. Musk needs more engineers and scientists to steal credit from first

[@Obvsaninternetexpert]

define successfully..... i think it'll launch..... i don't think it will land

[@andreabindolini7452]

​@@Obvsaninternetexpert Achieving Low Earth Orbit is a good definition of "success" for a first test flight.

[@ryanspencer6778]

They'll probably launch one, but I wouldn't be surprised if it craters the pad and they have to start over again.

[@thricefan89]

@@ryanspencer6778 Exactly. Not really reusable if crashes so frequently

[@tooradical7556]

You look healthier, good job Tim.

[@harmonyspaceagency1743]

in falcon heavy does fuel transfer to centre stage during launch? Or does the centre booster have more fuel in the tank?

[@tonnynguyen390]

Center booster is on lower throttle before the side boosters are detached

[@harmonyspaceagency1743]

@@tonnynguyen390 That makes sense, looked and boosters looked the same size, and pumping fuel between stages seems like a breakthrough they would talk about.

[@kylekingsberry5680]

Originally they were going to have fuel crossfeed like you described, but they found it to be too complicated and instead they just run the center core at a lower throttle

[@simongeard4824]

​@@kylekingsberry5680 It's quite visible on some of the launches... the flame from the center is noticeably smaller than those of the side boosters. And Delta IV Heavy was the same... I guess it's the obvious approach to take when building rockets with common cores...

[@mgcamp85]

Feeding from an external tank isn’t that big of a leap. The space shuttle orbiter did it every flight from the external fuel tank to the main engines

[@marctric]

Hi Tim, I have a doubt: is there any way in real life to abandon this pyrotechnic ballistic reentry procedure and go for a movies like soft reentry procedure ??? Is that physically possible ??? If you have a video about that already published, just point it out. Thanks in advance.