I realised NOT ALL new launch condo in Singapore made BIG profits...

[@joshconsultancy]

No ads, no fancy investment courses... If you've found value from the sharing and would like to give your support, purchase the SUPER THANKS stickers today. It is the purest form of contribution. Thank you for the support =) If you missed episode 2 of this series : I found FREEHOLD condo buyers in Singapore that have LOST MONEY... kzbin.info/www/bejne/pIi4pWWBqNGYoNE If you missed episode 3 of this series: HUGE GAINS - I looked for THE REASON why someone can PROFIT $770,000 buying a condo in Singapore... kzbin.info/www/bejne/jqfVaqaVjrega6M

[@hgft274]

Listen to Josh before you listen to most property agents

[@joshconsultancy]

Thank you for the high praise

[@Coolwater_TED]

But he can’t differentiate where is RCR 😅

[@lalajdhfbdj]

The thing about property purchase is that it unless you have millions in spare cash lying around and full cash down, once you take a bank loan, you are essentially leveraging. The person who on paper earn 300k and with a 4-5% PA growth, would in reality probably have put down maybe 400k in cash (down payment + installments etc) and gotten back extra 100k+ after minusing away interest. That's equivalent to a annualized growth of closer to 10%. Similarly the person who lost 1.4mil, in reality he might have had annualized losses of closer to 20%.

[@joshconsultancy]

Valid point

[@wtan1851]

Nice content. Need to subtract costs: renovation, interest, stamp duty, agent fee, lawyer fee, maintenance, property tax, etc.

[@joshconsultancy]

Thank you and agreed

[@spong2139]

finally, some property guy who isn't afraid to say that the current market price is way too high, unlike all the property agents who kept insisting that Singapore property prices will go to the moon. !!!! You guys have been warned !!!

[@joshconsultancy]

I’m a finance guy not a property guy 😅 but thank you

[@jironghuang4895]

Lost decades in various asset classes happen often. People are often blinded by recency bias.

[@joshconsultancy]

It’s extreme but yes agree it’s possible after any massive run up

[@vincentlee3006]

I took the risk to buy a unit in RCR in 2002 (5 months after the infamous 9-11), at $500psf. After staying (and still staying now) 16 years (TOP 2007), I smile every night in my sleep.😊.

[@Godfather1921_melo]

you never sell it then never gain, you must be in the market first then you can talk about gain or loss

[@fool1124]

You are very honest Josh

[@joshconsultancy]

🙏🙏

[@geo-publishing]

What are the condos that launched in 2012-2013 that are profitable? Maybe we can learn from those profitable condos no matter what period? One thing is during 2013, there was a killer cooling measure - adjustment of tdsr, which affected people’s affordability, and it takes time for the supply to be cleared.

[@joshconsultancy]

I found one. Not too clear why though.

[@MrJasonjace]

Is true that property investment is a good vehicle.. but what is also true is that property is not the ONLY investment..

[@joshconsultancy]

Well said

[@sourdough9139]

Thanks for the insights! Really is PSA for us hearing, buy condo sure earn is not a sure thing haha 👍🏻

[@joshconsultancy]

Happy it was useful. Share with a friend who should hear =)

[@sourdough9139]

Will do Josh! Been following your videos awhile, and own just an average hdb. We would want to be prudent and you definitely make more sense than the so called property gurus out there. Can i get your opinion do you think interest rates will climb above 5-6% in SG. And would there be a big decline in SG property prices if the FED continues to hike incrementally?

[@joshconsultancy]

Sora looks to have peaked. It may be too dooms day to predict a crash but hey weirder things have happened. I have voted by my decision to sell my hdb flat that properties may be in a peak cycle

[@trianglestomache6353]

That person who lost 1.4 million $ actually likely lost close to $2 million if u include interest charges plus ABSD costs plus other costs

[@joshconsultancy]

Likely true

[@thegreenbaby9365]

Looking forward to the next episode 👍👍🙏

[@joshconsultancy]

stay tuned =)

[@lynngor8]

Good analysis. Not every new launch will make good profits. Good projects have “similar” attributes. This is why my partner and I sold 60 units in Parc Esta. And we bought a Avenue South as our investment.

[@RevoOnRev1337]

different era now.. not like early 2000s or early 2010s when closing an eye without due diligence can also make it to a gain

[@clchen3798]

Excellent research and easy to understand breakdown of data. Thank you for such great and objective information

[@joshconsultancy]

Thank you for the high praise. Check episode 2 coming up =)

[@AtmosJourney]

Listening to your investment analysis is way much better than listening to one Mr. Loo who's full of BS 😅. Keep up the good work and this channel.

[@joshconsultancy]

Ah, Im a friend of Mr Loo. Would prefer to be neutral but thank you for the high praise

[@AtmosJourney]

@Josh Tan - TheAstuteParent Facts and data speaks volume, Josh. It's way much more convincing than just plucking stories from the sky and talk nonsense like your friend LOL 😆

[@fool1124]

agree, he is full of it

[@jocheah4000]

Property investment is not about opportunist profits on 99 years flat which loses value over time. A good investment bring in 200-400pct profits will clear goals of sustainability of value and wealth creation to not work full time. Many gurus selling the dream of quick gains but forgot that when interest rate goes up or when the market tank and a recession sets in all will be lost due to poor cash flow Mgt. The world today is marching towards uncertainty and yet many Spore FOMO are pilling up on debt.

[@joshconsultancy]

Agree with some points raised

[@cchan4739]

What are your thoughts on older FH condos in CCR in the low 2000 psf range? I can never understand why 99LH OCR condos can command such high psf... everything ages with time and their intrinsic value is not spared

[@joshconsultancy]

I looked at some info and have a conclusion. Will formulate it into a next episode. Stay tuned k

[@donlee474]

Many don't treat CPF as their money (thinking that they're stuck with the govt...) and thus, choose to wipe them clean to buy themselves a condo instead... If they have put the CPF in SA, it would have compounded for the past 10 years at an annualized rate of 4%, and CONTINUE to compound for the next 10 years and more... in other words, the opportunity cost of negative/stagnant growth here is not only 10 years of compounding interest, but also a smaller sum of CPF left to achieve your FRS or ERS

[@joshconsultancy]

Valid point

[@saidnotopaytowin714]

possible to do a video on the lost plus interest or profit less off interest?

[@joshconsultancy]

Noted. This has a 3part series. Check it out. Stay tuned!

[@mugenpower78]

Properties r not investments until they generate rental yield

[@joshconsultancy]

Rental yield now in this period actually is good. 2019 not so

[@DonYang73]

Properties are not investments unless its the second one onwards. 😊

[@takanna]

think u definitely hit the bull's eye by saying that some pricing currently are for 10-15 years down the road. 👍🏻

[@joshconsultancy]

Thank you. Share the message to a friend who can be benefit too

[@lidna82]

To enter the market at an average of $2M for a 3-bedder (i.e. 1000sqft) for a potential profit of 200-300k (before costs) isn't very attractive. There would be more cai tao than huat kueh in a few year's time for those who cannot hold.

[@joshconsultancy]

Pov noted

[@hhspore]

very insightful. I know who the 27-yr old guy is. The most amazing thing is that he comes from a average/below average family and yet he is so overly confident. He doesnt come across as a highly intelligent person based on his speech/thought process. In his case, I think he can go either way on the extreme................either very well rewarded for the high risks that he took or he will be burnt really badly. Interesting to see how he lands 5 years down the road.....................

[@joshconsultancy]

Agree. I did the critique video but I meant well and hope to raise critical thinking points

[@ChristenB-qd3tc]

A lot these buyers are hyped up by real estate agents. If recession come true, will there be more bank sales and how does it impact the bank shares ?

[@joshconsultancy]

Banks have traditionally been early to go down with recession fears and early to recover ahead of normalisation

[@risd1071]

not a property agent or a property bull but an observer. the list given by edgeprop is the last 10 transactions i believe. there are some older transactions that made more. i think jadescape had a 700k gain

[@KrishnanV9]

Great video and very informative as always. If I may ask, where do you get the data from as it has both buy and sale price for a particular unit

[@joshconsultancy]

From edgeprop 👌🏻

[@shurakishi4707]

There is always a price ceiling for properties. It’s just that this is a moving target. There is only a limit to how much prices can climb and how much people can afford to pay for something. This is simple math. Consider the following: 1) say a condo property is worth 3m now for a 1400 sq ft condo. How much can prices go in 5 yrs, 10 yrs. 2) assuming it goes up, what is the pool of customers who can afford to pay? By these there are a few groups - those who have so much excess capital they do not need a loan, and then for those who need a loan. 3) what are the comparable properties at the particular price? 4) say you expect the property to go up to 4m in future. Who are these people who can afford to buy? Bottomline is this - enter a property transaction at the right entry price, you will make profit. Wrong entry price - you will lose. Do research about that property - layout location, competing properties etc, and one should know get nearer to the answer whether it is worth buying

[@joshconsultancy]

Fully agree 👍

[@shurakishi4707]

I forgot to add. Let’s put some common sense as well. About half of buyers of most new launches are upgraders of which many may upgrade from the surrounding HDB neighbourhood. Of course there will be foreigner buyers and buyers or upgraders from other estates. Project 5, 10 years ahead and say if you expect the property to rise in price, will wages rise in tandem as well? If it doesn’t (and high chance it won’t rise as fast), then your potential pool of buyers will be smaller. This will result in a smaller transaction volume… and that will naturally translate to fewer transactions and lower prices

[@babibrain]

Singapore property sure will hit $4000psf in two years time

[@joshconsultancy]

Maybe... btw it already is in orchard FH

[@charsiew88]

Property purchase is a long term investment

[@joshconsultancy]

Yes. That’s property greatest strength

[@choonbingpng8768]

J Tan, I bot echelon dist 3 in 2012 2rm 732sf and sold in 2021. First hand experience of what inv pro is all about …

[@joshconsultancy]

🙏 What would be your advice in todays market?

[@choonbingpng8768]

@@joshconsultancy The probability of nett profit for inv pro(new or otherwise) is v v low. Focused on career, frugal lifestyle, stay in bto all the way, children overseas edn if necessary (MBBS, LLB etc), top up SA Asap, compounding takes time. Hapi to share both my wife and I achieved 1M65 individually at 58. ( paying cash for housing, redeem OA used for housing with interest once ‘liquid seed fund permit) It takes effort and dedication from parents part for children to achieve social mobility through education(MBBS, dean’s list etc) take comfort to share after achieving financial freedom, we continue to work TBIYTB SMTE

[@kelvincheng5901]

Your approach is the prudent and sensible way of reaching financial independence..but I still think property investment has its merits. Many achieved financial independence via the property route. In fact would even go as far as to say that it's a safer route than picking stocks.

[@konggg]

Josh It depends on which community you join and who is your mentor who will make the right recommendations based on experience and proven methods. Hint - Before you even buy, already plan for the exit strategy. Who can afford to buy your unit when you plan to sell eventually?

[@joshconsultancy]

Agree. Which community would you suggest?

[@konggg]

@@joshconsultancy There are a few mentors/experts out there with their own communities. I suggest you join their webinars to see which one you are most comfortable with and do your own due diligence. Good luck!

[@brandonkuay]

Hi Josh, thank you for your content. I enjoy it. All sales transactions reflect in websites are before taxes and cost. Examples: Stamp duty, Bank interest ,Agent fee. Easily take up 10-15% of total price. Now property trend is still in a bull run😊

[@joshconsultancy]

No probs brendon :)

[@antihunter]

Too much FOMO in the market, driven by property agents and marketers without knowing the consequences of unable to sustain a large loan long term. If the person depends on a single income, it would be disastrous to begin with. But it would likely be the push from property agents and 3 years streak positive resulting in so much FOMO.

[@joshconsultancy]

Agree

[@user-td9rn9et3s]

Very good information

[@joshconsultancy]

Thank you. Share with a friend who should see

[@InvestingIguana]

I guess that's why they call it "investing" and not "guaranteed profits." 😉

[@raylim5084]

While the average upper income couple earned around 16K per household.. if u buy a 2700psf for 1000sq around 2.7M. First u pay 35% 945k cash + cpf and service the remaining with 3% interest for 30 years at 6k per month! How is that sustainable? You could said! Hey I am going to sell and make a profit.. imagine if u want to sell at 4% per annum after 5 years 20% that make the property 3.24M to another upper middle income couple, who is going to buy at this price ?

[@joshconsultancy]

Sell after 15y sure, it is safer But ya agree sell after 5y could be speculative coz down cycles in property are long

[@Coolwater_TED]

Since when jadescape and Parc esta is OCR zone? I m not property agent also know Eunos and Marymount are under RCR zone Nonetheless he made a lot of sense for this video for people buying at such high price for current market and it may lead to the U shape graph effect like sky habitat

[@joshconsultancy]

Error noted

[@Coolwater_TED]

@@joshconsultancy no worries , just pointed for correction . Thx bro

[@tdnow4416]

How about buying aged condo? Will it be more profitable? Just wonder..🤔

[@joshconsultancy]

If this is indeed a high tide, I think returns experience may be similar

[@tdnow4416]

@@joshconsultancy Thanks..

[@IA100KPDT]

are you supposed to add all those transaction and legal fees which could come up to quite a bit, no?

[@joshconsultancy]

Legal fees quite small relatively

[@BomBomm12345]

Josh whats your take on SNG prop market then from investment perspective.. not buying now could mean paying more in the future but buying now runs the risk of market declining from the top..

[@joshconsultancy]

I voted bearish 4months ago. Not right yet unfortunately =) Have you seen this - I SOLD MY HDB FLAT ... Bearish On Singapore Properties But Why? - kzbin.info/www/bejne/gmiqinWno7-Zpa8

[@JS-ev4xc]

It is indeed very risky to invest in private condo, not forget to mention the high monthly maintenance fee you have to cough out, the more facilities, the higher the maintenance fee.

[@joshconsultancy]

At this moment the number of profitable sales dar out way losses. Hence it’s easy for over optimism. I wanted to share risk to balance pov better and advocate critical thinking

[@EYBearBear]

Wish me luck Josh

[@joshconsultancy]

Can share what did you buy and what is your rough plan?

[@yeowchongong5608]

Sky habitat location is just bad. Surrounded by HDB flats just makes the owners feel stupid

[@joshconsultancy]

Hmmm... there are also many other condos which are independently surrounded also in a HDB estate

[@lidna82]

@@joshconsultancy Agree. I think Jadescape is also surrounded by HDB and it's selling at good margins.

[@RUHappyATM]

GREED is never good. Believe in Confucius.

[@gammauniverse]

Freehold landed is the way to go. They are definitely more expensive but they are guaranteed to make money. That said, I think we are right at the peak of the curve now, and I expect prices to drop between 2024 - 2028, when a huge increase in supply of flats/condos is expected.

[@joshconsultancy]

There are investors into FH who exited with losses but POV noted.

[@babibrain]

Yes. For sure

[@tedchandran]

Jai Hinduja. Big money now But not all speculators have experienced market crash. If no holding strength, can cry for the rest of your lives.

[@lordbluefire6335]

Mr. Josh is property agent?

[@joshconsultancy]

Im not. I work in financial advisory

[@DonYang73]

You can be sure there will be a group who gets screwed while another may make it nice. Heehee

[@fushionm6098]

Big price collapse on the horizon. Be careful and don't fall for sale gimmick

[@joshconsultancy]

That could be abit extreme of a prediction... buy hey stranger things have happened...

[@marvelcomiks8078]

Should reveal who are the Developers who had built and initially sold many of these loss making condos. Boycott them.

[@joshconsultancy]

But It’s the buyers decision?

[@marvelcomiks8078]

@@joshconsultancy Yes, buyers' decision. But sometimes the market may be in short supply or the developers hype it up so much that it confuses the customers. Either way buyers are caught with the short end of the stick. These Developers should be exposed. Especially if they keep selling loss making properties.

[@zhenxiong5389]

First!

[@joshconsultancy]

Hey zhenxiong :)

[@KelvinTan808]

99% new launch lose money

[@joshconsultancy]

Maybe not 99% but some do