I screwed up about EVs - big time | Auto Expert John Cadogan

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[@mahcooharper9577]

This is why people trust you John, if you make a mistake you don't obfuscate, blame or build straw men. You owned it, and we need more of that in the world.

[@AutoExpertJC]

Politicians, listen up...

[@dbmn7571]

@@AutoExpertJC The politician says "What?" when you tell them to listen up.🤣🤣

[@beauzo9965]

But how do they make solar panels and batteries

[@eliseviv]

Good job mate, love the STEM promotion. I have had the benefit of viewing the error episode first, so i have a chance to spot the error in hindsight!

[@JonathanMcDonald]

​@@AutoExpertJC The Hon John Cadogan as next Prime Minister of Australia. MAGA hats to come soon?

[@benmmm7359]

John, it takes a big man to say it how it is. And it takes an even bigger man to admit mistakes and correct them publicly, for everyone’s benefits and enlightenment. We salute you for being both of those people.

[@AutoExpertJC]

Gotta respect the facts, dude - but thanks for the message. Appreciated.

[@gbsailing9436]

Clearly he is conjoined at the hip...

[@benmmm7359]

@@gbsailing9436 who is?

[@Liqtor]

@@benmmm7359 The one who says things as they are, and the one who admits his mistakes.

[@gbsailing9436]

@@benmmm7359 Who is what? Use full complete sentences....

[@rogerk.8600]

BRILLIANT & HONEST FINAL 15 MINUTES!! EVERYONE NEEDS TO SEE THIS!

[@davidmaskew]

Hello, I know this is an older video but I am a new watcher of you channel from the UK. Just wanted to say good on you for correcting the record in this way as many wouldn't. It's proves you are someone who can be trusted when it comes to facts and discussion on topics like this. I have had the discussions about EVs and what you say about a small 1 litre 3 cylinder car being about as good when it comes to CO² emissions. The discussion then always turns to but it's about removing the harmful fumes from City centres. I very rarely drive into the City anyway as there is a park and ride tram station 3 miles from my house where I can leave my car free of charge to get a tram for around half the price of what parking the car in the city centre would cost. It's not always the most convenient way to do things but it means there's less hassle trying to find a parking space in the city. It makes me wonder sometimes how much power the tram uses and if that really saves emissions in the bigger picture but the tram is going to run anyway so at least I'm taking my car out of the equation for that part of the journey. At the moment I see EVs in their current form a bit like when countries ship their waste to other countries to appear greener than the countries who end up dealing with the waste. I'm not against EVs as such I just think they cost far too much environmentally and financially for very little gains in the current form. Unless the power going into them is zero emissions they never really can be.

[@TomJones-be5ny]

John the fact that you made this video is why I take you at your word. I wish more people had this old school honour of being a man of your word.

[@AutoExpertJC]

It's just having respect for the facts. If you get the facts wrong, gotta 'fess up.

[@hooligan69ful]

@@AutoExpertJC Own it , Learn from it , Grow from it. Good Job dude Love your work :)

[@Humongous_Pig_Benis]

@@AutoExpertJC Not just respect for the facts, John, also respect for yourself. This is why I listen to you from far away Upsidedownistan Portugal. Cheers and thanks for leading by example.

[@warbird747]

John, As a pilot and trainer for over 40 years I've seen plenty of mistakes made on the flightdeck, mine included. The secret is how you recover. Yours was perfect. We all cock up, just hope we catch it before is gets serious. Kudos mate.

[@mawsoncasey7347]

TEMS = Threat Error Management

[@stevelloyd5785]

@@mawsoncasey7347 System?

[@andrewchung83]

you wouldnt want to make a fatal mistake at 10000ft with 300 passengers onboard.

[@thomasa5619]

@@andrewchung83 although at 10,000’ you have at least several minutes to fix the mistake, and a copilot

[@imagisign]

Full respect, John! Part of the process of seeking the truth through science (or as close of an approximation to the truth as humanly possible) is to acknowledge one’s missteps and gather all the learnings through that process. Love your channel! Greetings from Germany.

[@SayItWellOrShutup]

The transparency and quality of research in this video got you a subscriber. Well done John, you not only debunked so many ideologues, but rather gave your viewers a gold worth info. Thanks

[@aussiecue]

I'm a building fire protection auditor. Mistakes can be serious. I make mistakes sometimes. You know, When you get home and have to fill out all the days reports and Tiffany gets, You know a little exited and she is "Down there" whilst one is tapping away on the key board. It's the rectification of said mistakes that keep customers coming back. Better to eat crow and become more experienced than be too proud and eat dirt! Much respect to you John. My analytical mind in regards to your previous information has been adjusted and updated.

[@jameshamilton533]

It’s not the mistake that matters (we’re all human), it’s how you handle it. And you handled it in an exemplary manner.

[@PowerOn-]

..and then went on to compare a 'lardy arse' Ionic 5 (which weighs about 200kg less than a Wildtrack) go figure?! Jon also forgot to mention anything about the huge CO2 emissions from the fuel discovery, extraction refining and distribution. What a clanger of a mistake!

[@markusdammasch9108]

Great video John. Thankyou. Yes, the solution to the greenhouse problem will always be in the electrical grid and home and commercial energy usage. Thanks for the vehicle comparisons that actually realistic and take into account the whole scope of the manufacturing and driving experience and are easy to relate to.

[@galahadthreepwood]

What greenhouse problem? If all the politicians say it's a problem, you can be sure it's not.

[@Mikefngarage]

I have been an advocate of household solar. I put up 7kw of solar. Almost zeros me out. and cost me 13k usd. saves me money every month and less pull from the grid. We should be doing more for this before we start with EV push.

[@LearningFast]

This is what I like best about this channel. You are just about getting to the truth even if you have to admit your mistakes. Bravo my good man. I really admire your honesty here.

[@MichaelKingsfordGray]

Learn your real name: FAST!

[@MacPoop]

I completely missed the error myself. This followup is hugely respectful to the audience, to the facts and more importantly, to the point! Huge respect JC

[@AutoExpertJC]

Thank you.

[@TankEnMate]

@@AutoExpertJC One thing you are missing from your analysis is that the generation will have more renewables over time. The Australian grid produced 38TWh in 2015-2016, but for 2020-2021 it produced 70TWh, up approximately 85% over 5 years (or 13% pa). And yes our electricity usage is going up slightly per year, but obviously not at a rate of anywhere near 13% per year compounded.

[@nigel.w]

@@TankEnMate If the rate of EV adoption escalates exponentially as it has done and is doing around the world, electricity usage will increase at a rate that cannot be realistically supplied by current renewables technologies. And there will also be huge problems associated with so many charging at the same time overnight.

[@TankEnMate]

@@nigel.w Renewables are growing exponentially as well, as are home batteries. Superchargers are already being deployed with Megapacks. These will help balance out power generation / consumption on an intra-day time period. So I suspect it then comes down to redeploying diesel from vehicles to power generation for a short while; and this will be much more efficient than diesel vehicles (50~80% CCGT vs 15~20% ICE engine). So it will be full steam ahead for both in the near future with means an overall decrease in CO2 emissions. The countries that don't take all this onboard will be the ones to suffer; higher costs, unstable grid, AND running old unsupported clunkers. My suggestion will be look at how Norway is getting on.

[@MacPoop]

Why are these irrelevant comments beneath my own thread??

[@IvyMike.]

Wisdom comes with responsibilities John, well done for fessing up mate.

[@AutoExpertJC]

It wasn't that hard - it's an integrity thing.

[@IvyMike.]

@@AutoExpertJC True.

[@fricatus]

John, if you’re factoring in the CO2 footprint of the electricity, then you should also factor in the CO2 emissions involved in the extraction, transport and refining of the diesel too. And if you’re going to factor money into your calculations, you need to take account of the price difference between diesel and electricity for the same mileage.

[@ramb5193]

Exactly. Also, it requires one unit of electricity just to refine one liter of gasoline. This is just to refine, think about extraction, transport and leakages of fuel. Also, in US, to get 15% ethanol to mix with gasoline, they grow 42000 sq miles of corn. How much energy, water, labor needed for that every year. It produces huge amount of waste which will eventually produce tons of methane. Just 15000 sq miles of solar will produce all the electricity needed for entire US. If you really want to understand the EV and renewable with battery storage, kindly see the Tesla master plan 3. You will learn a lot. You will not get any real information for the old used car mechanic.

[@markburton8303]

@@ramb5193 currently 500000 gallons of water are needed to produce 1 metric tonne of lithium. There is an environmental cost for everything we do. I once saw an article regarding the 'break even' for a CO2 vs a ICE car, and it stated it would break even at 80k miles. A little asterisk at the bottom of the article noted that it didn't include for the recycling of the battery pack. The need for green power is going to increase near exponentially to cover mining, recycling and the increasing need for power. The best thing you could do, if you work within 10/15 miles of home is to ride a bike every day - better for the environment, better for you, better for the countries health service.

[@adrianbird1139]

JC, love your work and your coverage of the intellectual incandescence of the Aussie energy framework. I reckon Wildtrack girl (but not so much Ionic boy) could go another 10 years, but the servicing and fuel costs might be increasingly influential in a broader comparison. Would also be interesting to know what the disposal costs will be in 10 years for spent EV batteries.

[@HarmLessSolutionsNZ]

In 10 years time redundant EV batteries might be numerous enough for the emerging battery recycling enterprises to gain access to them because for now at least the demand for them to repurpose as DIY home storage units is making them far too valuable to 'dispose of'. Unlike fossil fuels which are burnt and lost forever they retain all of their constituent mineral inputs so are a perfect source of inputs for new batteries.

[@nadnerb2k]

10 years? My Nissan Leaf battery is 11 years old and still going strong at 73% state of health. When it gets to 50% I'll part the car out and use the battery for home energy storage. It'll still have 12kWh left (early Leaf batteries were 24kwh) which is more than most home solar batteries these days. You'll honestly get closer to 30 years use out of a battery than 10.

[@fbvanman]

Have a great weekend John,you deserve it.Thanks for all the time you spend making us smarter and more aware. I'll always be watching and learning. Kind regards Michael Gulyas.

[@AJC508]

I was always taught to accuse privately and apologise publicly. Glad to see it wasn’t just my parents that had a moral compass. Well done, sir.

[@paulcharlton2353]

One of your best videos, not that you make many mistakes but love that you fess up. I respect someone who holds there hands up when they make a mistake (we all do) so keep up the good work.

[@888netg]

When calculating the co2 cost of fuel don't forget exploration, drilling equipment, energy used, transport of the crood oil, refining, transport of the fuel, equipment for storage, and after all that you burn it once then start again

[@typhoon-7]

You learn more from mistakes than success. As a lifelong engineer I've learned a lot!!!

[@williamharley6588]

Why calculate the battery manufacturing energy, but not the energy required to get the petrol or diesel from the ground to the pump. Would make for interesting comparison.

[@VCanisMajorisY]

EVs are destroying the road surfaces in my area. Goodness knows what the tyre shredding and shedding is happening. I'm an old school green and have serious concerns regarding this new utopia.

[@werafonas]

​@@VCanisMajorisY so EVs in your area are huge and weight 20 tons?

[@essentialmix1606]

@@werafonas Maybe he lives at one of the Iron Ore mines in the Pilbara...

[@mattscheele4954]

Because it’s so cheap

[@ebaab9913]

​​@@VCanisMajorisYWe all would be very interested in you expanding on this. Why because there is something very different between EVs and the majority of ICE cars. There are new ICE cars that can approach the lack of kinetic friction that EVs have, but very few, and not under acceleration. What this means is that there is nearly zero loss of traction in an EV. There could be a clue in the weight of the vehicles, as to why there is more tyre wear.

[@lllordllloyd]

Credible sources make clear corrections and retractions. Regarding comparisons, we can clean up the input to the Ionic over 10 years (if we vote for that). The Wildtrack will always be the same. Your broader message that it is hard is most valid, which is why we should have started 15 years ago. Hats off to you John.

[@levonau]

John, can I check your numbers for fuel. Are your fuel numbers calculated as 'Pump to wheels' for the Ford Ranger? You used the calcs for the EV as 'Powerstation to wheels'. So the real calculation should be 'Well to wheels' to correctly compare the two. Mining, transporting, and refining crude oil into fuels is a pretty intense process. I believe the powerstation calcs already consider this part for coal. Then with roughly 90% of the fuel used in Australia being shipped in, this adds substantial additional numbers. From numbers I have found for a country producing its own fuel it equates to about 24% additional CO2/km then add shipping the fuel to Aus.

[@markdenton3681]

Shhhhhh, I just got told to try and keep up asking a shorter version of what you did. You can’t break the cardinal sin “thou shalt not question the combustion Jesus”

[@swilliams937]

Keep up, you two. Turn your ears away from the EV fake gods.

[@rellett1]

You are a amazing host and this mistake doesnt change that. I wish we had people like you in charge of our country keep making great videos Thank you.

[@LuvTorpedo]

I admire your integrety and wish I had your depth of understanding. You set an amazing example.

[@ToddAMeyers]

As a nuclear engineer I love how you used the dirty word! Yes base load power and crowdsourcing renewable energy first. Then move to the marginal (for now) EV savings. I will wait for a better motive source for EVs personnally but they will have thier day in the end. I very much appreciate your intellect and sense of humor. Well done Mr. Cadogan. You are my favorite engineer to watch on KZbin!

[@bryanbishop2377]

Are you including battery changes? 🤔

[@ianritchie1666]

Did the same 2 days ago, on a simple thermal expansion calc. Humility lives on in my life too.

[@MentaL65535]

Hi John, when you do the calculation to compare emissions from EV vs emissions from ICE, do you only consider tailpipe emissions for the ICE car, or do you also take into account the emissions produced when extracting, transporting, refining the combustible fuel?

[@brianjensen5200]

Good question. I would like the answer to that as well. I'm guessing the answer would be yes, knowing the usual depth of John's ramblings :-)

[@howtomanagetech]

No one ever does. Nor the electricity required to make petrol/diesel.

[@nigspeed]

Did he also include the emissions incurred in the production of the Ranger ?

[@SurmaSampo]

​@@nigspeed Not important when doing a differential analysis.

[@robincollis6349]

​@@nigspeed he did it was in the original video it's represented by weight of the vehicle and CO2/tonne of steel that's why he used the specific vehicles and before you say what about the engine what about this what about that EV's still have a form of propulsion that needs to be manufactured so vehicle mass is enough said I think

[@furocity]

I’m mighty impressed by this John. Bravo to you sir

[@contarinifamily2183]

Good on you for having the guts to swallow your pride and correct yourself. Respect!

[@benpatana7664]

We all make mistakes. Respect to you John for acknowledging it and correcting.

[@AutoExpertJC]

No wukkas, Ben.

[@solidchabisto3435]

#respect

[@darrenwilkinson1742]

Hey John, much respect for being a sane, respectful and honest bloke. I’ve come to expect nothing less over the last 4 years, but it’s still refreshing to see in the world we currently live in! To make it even more hilarious, I just finished watching the movie, Don’t look up; a movie that touches very close on the subject of scientific and public credibility (and the art of bullshit). Give it a watch you’ll laugh (and cry). Thanks for your tireless work sir!

[@hughchilds5888]

A great video, honest and balanced. Just one question; do the quoted ICE Co2 emission figures include the energy to produce the petrol / diesel? It's good to see the comparison. Another thought might be to purchase a small BEV (30kWh battery) for shops and commute and the Solar / home battery. Then on the 2-3 occasions a year to hire a large car (ICE) for the longer distances..

[@Chris-ei5fz]

John if you are going to factor in the emissions due to the manufacturing process of the ev and it’s batteries do you also factor in the same emissions due to the manufacturing of the wild track and the mining and refining of its fuel source.

[@Oz_Lumpy]

Kudos to you John for having the intestinal fortitude to stand up and rectify your error.

[@Sthilboy56]

We all love you John because you admit to mistakes , which means you have integrity and honesty and we can trust you 👍

[@AutoExpertJC]

Thank you very much, dude.

[@solarguy6043]

The great algorithm determined that I would enjoy and appreciate your channel. Sure enough..... For those of us who understand and appreciate the value of good data, and actual facts and references and footnotes, will universally be impressed by your confession/admission/rectification video. Everybody, even politicians, would be better off to recognize that everybody makes mistakes. It's the response after the error that separates the intellectually honest and critical thinkers from the other crowd who runs largely on emotion. Serious discussions about important topics should never be decided by who yells the loudest. And yet it is all too common. Carry on with your outstanding work.

[@user-bd5nh5eb4b]

I called it right John, you do have the genius dark humor of Churchill, and his humility ❤! So proud to have met you through the magic of the ether! May I call you friend? redbaron, USA.

[@AutoExpertJC]

Sure. Please do. All the best.

[@bryanjuni706]

Thank you so very much for this! You have made my thoughts on EVs sadder now knowing the FACTs that they are not as good as touted. I would rather know the facts that live in la la land. Thanks again for your correction and the info. Always perfectly presented.

[@rocketsensor]

John, if you do mine-to-wheel emissions for an EV you should do well-to-wheel emissions for the ICE vehicle. You might be surprised how much energy it takes to refine oil into petrol.

[@greenmatt1981]

Respect to John for this video but as above it’s still not a valid comparison. The NEM carbon intensity has been progressively reducing over the past years, we can’t achieve that with fossil fuels. Still agree we should make EV’s lighter and more efficient.

[@kyle.1442]

What about mine to final disposal?

[@quantummotion]

Why? Compare carbon impact of car manufacture to EV car manufacture carbon impact, then do the same for the fuel vs electric generation carbon emission in situ. May work for California year round, may not work for Northern Canada most months in the year. There are no utopias, just sweet spots that depend where you are.

[@franciscody9622]

Also need to factor in emissions from wheel to subsequent disposal of EV (with batteries). Do the same for ICE vehicles.

[@smitlag]

The "privileged" who drive EVs don't get the luxury of seeing the moon crater in the ground created to mine the materials to make it. Not in my back yard..right? But they are ok in some third world country or China (who doesn't give a rats ass who or what they destroy in the process of providing entitled westerners their merchandise). What greater wisdom than to provide China even more economic leverage over our affairs.

[@bruceallen6492]

This happens to us all! Thank you for the update! I admit to carrying my units through so I can see I'm getting cucumbers per cubic feet.

[@terryward1422]

One of your more entertaining videos. I look forward to your next "F" up. Your eloquence is a rare treat for the ear.

[@franciscoshi1968]

On the subject of money where the wild track costs 15k less than the ionic. You need to include the cost of fuel and the cost of charging for the ionic over the 10yrs and see how much each has available to spend for the solar array. I am guessing over 10yrs at current fuel prices the wild track will not be able to purchase the solar array because it will have spent more than the ionic. We also need to include the maintenance cost for both over 10yrs and we also need to consider the increase in fuel cost over those 10yrs.

[@franciscoshi1968]

I did the maths and this is how it goes. The wild track will cost $30k in fuel over the 150k km and at $400/service (I am guessing average as I am sure there are a few very expensive services on diesels) every 15k km totaling $34k for fuel and service. The ionic driver spends $15k on a solar array and battery and charges completely from solar and pays $1.5k on service and saves $2500 in maintenance and saves his home energy bill. The ionic driver pays less than the wild track driver, gets to drive for free, gets free electricity and saves far more CO2 emissions than the wild track because the ionic doesn't charge from the grid and runs his house from solar.

[@kozmaz87]

Could have done without the 10 minutes of waffle about errors in general and the sponsor spot though... "prepare to fast-forward" "preparing to fast-forward Sir" "fast-forwarding Sir" :D

[@AutoExpertJC]

Tell someone who gives a shit what you want.

[@kozmaz87]

I guess it is fair to not care about what I want, why would you but based on your bashing corporate wonks bullshitting day and night, which they certainly do, one would expect you consistently to be getting to the point somewhat faster especially after announcing that the video is not clickbait. ... also... manners please.

[@hubtubby]

Agreed, and considering his reply, and his torch grifting, he probably believes the sun shines out his arse. I reckon secretly refers to himself as JC.

[@kielbasa737]

@@AutoExpertJCme. I love your vids John but cut the boomer ramblings and shorten your vids

[@weekenddistractions]

Great video. Happy to see a realistic discussion. Here in the US, I can't see anything but the most shallow of discussions on vehicle electrification bordering on religious dogma.

[@SuperYerkers]

Love your work John! I think assuming that the grid CO2 mass/kWh rate into the future isn’t going to drop is a bit unfair. This factor has to drop into the future but in comparison, the ICE emissions will stay almost the same. It would add value to the calculation to make this a variable in the ev calc, and look at an expected full lifecycle analysis over 20 years based on the current trend of the grid emissions intensity.

[@tomwebster3249]

I agree. I’m trying to relate the CO2 grams per kW of John’s “AushTrallyaan” National Grid (which sounds like its’ heavily coal-dependant) to the New Zealand Grid (which is largely hydro and wind driven). Maybe we do come out better in NZ with EV’s - apart from running the risk of burning our garages down !!

[@csjrogerson2377]

I thought something was odd about that number, but I was tired and in a hurry. Anyway, great that you 'fessed up and re-did the maths. That Ford gas guzzler has a lot to answer for, but the ionic 5 is not the virtuous archangel either. My Mazda 2 skyactiv D produces 89 gm of CO2/km.

[@deneoloughlin4973]

Interesting workings. It's not easy to work out. Could I add that you seem to have factored in the CO2 cost of manufacturing the electricity to power the car, but not the CO2 cost of manufacturing and transporting the diesel to power the Wildtrak.

[@deadslota]

it never seems to get factored into ev/ice comparisons, all the mining/refining/manufactoring of ev components are accounted for, however fuel is magically deposited into the tank without a thought for all the extraction/refining/shipping/transport/etc for the fuel. also are we also assuming the grid will not get significantly greener over the course of 10years?

[@PowerOn-]

Jon is a repeat offender in this regard. I stopped whatcing his videos a year or so ago, but clearly make a mistake clicking on this one when it popped up in my feed! No that is a mistake to own up to!😁

[@erniefoster7116]

Well done John no one is perfect. Even I have made the odd mistake. An old mate of mine use to say that if you have never made a mistake you have never done anything. Keep up the good work.

[@LearningFast]

When he said he “carries a torch everyday” I pictured him walking around with a welder. I had no idea he was talking about flashlights.

[@philcurrie5768]

Hi John, just wondering if your calculations take into account the CO2 (and any other extracts) produced when refining the diesel at the refinery before it ends up in Wildtrack girl's fuel tank? Enjoy your videos. Cheers, Phil

[@cohrindrake]

Yeah, I think if the calculation includes the CO2 produced to create the ‘fuel’ for the EV (electricity), I would think the same should be done for the Diesel fuel. Getting the oil out of the ground, transporting it, refining it and then transporting the final result to the petrol station all incur a CO2 cost and should be added, right?

[@philcurrie5768]

@@cohrindrake I thought stopping at the refining part of the process would give an apples for apples comparison with the electricity generation. Otherwise, if you start including the actual mining/drilling for the primary resource, it would possibly be too hard to get the necessary data at a reasonable level.

[@cig13]

@@philcurrie5768 But don't the EV calculations include the mining processes (including that of coal for power plants)? It seems far more apples-to-apples (to me) to compare end-to-end rather than picking an arbitrary point to start counting?

[@stulop]

Thinking similar, as the Ev has the Co2 debt from the outset, Ranger girl will have the debt of the lifetime fuel supply chain from exploration to the Ranger fuel tank.

[@wazzaw6286]

@@cig13 if you really want to compare apples to apples, then maybe compare a ICE car similar in size to the Ionic 5, which you can almost fit into the tray of the Ranger.

[@jamiehoward7478]

It shows a deep integrity to admit an error

[@AutoExpertJC]

Respect for the facts...

[@stephenelcoat969]

Hi John, nice to have a non biased opinion on this. I think you need to also include the embodied co2 to make the ICE as well as the co2 of refining the fuel. Keep up the crusade😊

[@AutoExpertJC]

I think you need to think more clearly. My comparison as is is perfectly rational and appropriate.

[@alanmcrae8594]

Just found this channel. I really, really appreciate an honest man who will attempt to adhere to the facts, do the calculations, share the results, accept a peer review with humility, and persevere until the full truth is totally exposed & understood. The half truths & outright lies of those with a financial agenda do not help us to solve the obvious existential crisis that lies before a global, high tech civilization that is currently based almost entirely on the ever-increasing combustion of cheap fossil fuels. The view of Earth from the Earth Observing Satellites is not subjective - it is what it is. And the climate change impact of flooding the Earth's atmosphere with greenhouse gases is also readily visible and only deniable by those who refuse to look at an unpleasant unfolding reality that would crimp their precious "way of life" if they were to try to mitigate the worst of it. As if an extravagant way of life that clearly imperils the quality of life of future generations is some sort of sacred right that must be preserved at all cost. Heaven forbid that we conduct a rigorous self-examination of our daily lives & our voracious appetite for continuous consumption of finite & precious natural resources and ask ourselves whether what is now considered normal can be sustainable into the future without flipping the planet's global climate into an altered state that will become less & less survivable by future generations of both humans and all other forms of life on our planet. "We have met the enemy and he is us." What is becoming more & more obvious is that there is no easy solution to the existential bind we are in, and any & all improvements made anywhere on Earth in the years ahead will be easily counterbalanced & exceeded by the rapid industrialization of "undeveloped countries" with billions more people who want all the same improvements to "quality of life" that first world countries currently enjoy. As far as we can tell, the best we can do at present is to prepare to try to live sustainably in a world 2.5-3.5C warmer than pre-industrial times because that is what is baked into The System, no pun intended, and no amount of greenwashing, protesting, climate change destruction or half-hearted government policies is going to soft land global civilization on a nice, comfortable global utopia of universal first world quality of life. Once the global climate state change reaches & exceeds the geophysical tipping points, the next phase is purely the Laws of Thermodynamics and a long, drawn out period of a runaway greenhouse Earth until other natural processes kick in and start a swing to another climate state change in the other direction. Best of luck to you all as you examine your lifestyles and attempt to engineer changes that will position you to survive climate change & the socioeconomic chaos that will result.

[@obyrnej8z]

220 g for the average car 10 km per litre not the wildtrack. Wildtrack does 7 km per litre Also should include well to tank co2 of 720 g/km taking it to 3140g per litre. So wildtrack comes in at 448g per km.

[@evsmadebetter3980]

Hi John. In your calculations you only count emission of wildtrack at tailpipe. Not wheel to well there a lot of emissions just to get the fuel to the car in the first place. Where as you calculate 7.5 tonnes for EV but zero for wildtrack .

[@andrewwatson5360]

That's true but what about the emmissions/pollution etc. created for the disposal of all of the used dead batteries ? - multiple in some EVs life of vehicle.

[@bigbewo]

​@Andrew Watson yeah batteries can and are being recycled to refuse a high % of the materials again. Fuel can't be.

[@andrewwatson5360]

@Ben Wood So where is this happening in the scale that is and will be required for the projected millions of dead batteries these battery evs will produce ?

[@werafonas]

​@@andrewwatson5360 it's not the right time for "huge scale". Demand simply isnt there yet. Need to wait for ateast 10ys before even taking into account used EVs batteries.

[@andrewwatson5360]

@Paulius Ščerbinskas Yes but that is the whole point about EVs isn't it ? Their engineering and technology is underdone and compared to ICE motive power crude when it comes to overall efficiency and practicality. Battery powered EVs have, will and do have a place in our transportation needs but only for part of the whole as unless some "miraculous " developments occurr they will never be as versatile or as flexible in providing motive power as solid/liquid/gas energised vehicles do. And they provide a very small percentage of reduction to our CO2 and pollution creation. So rather than concentrating our efforts on one comparatively minor part that is under our nose we should be pressuring those in power for real solutions to the huge worldwide threat to complex life forms that we face. We need all need to admit to the mistakes we have made in our thinking that we can put off problems because it won't be an issue for at least ten years. Not sure we all have the strength of character that John has to admit to our misconceptions, mindsets, mistakes but we cannot afford to keep supporting B.S. because it suits us or makes us fell all warm and fuzzy. Tens of millions of dead EV batteries stockpiled awaiting a feasible technology to economically and ecologically way of recycling them is definitely not warm and fuzzy. It's a disaster being created and happening now!

[@Flamamacue]

Good on you for swallowing your pride to correct your mistake in a frankly majestic way. And thank you for highlighting the marketing campaign that is "green vehicles". Grinds my gears. I do also find it ironic that the central pillar of the "green" movement is less CO2 and less CO2 actually means less plant matter ergo less green. Yet it's marketed as being good for the trees. I get the approach of reducing climate impacts etc but as a logistical application, solar, wind, EVs and anything reducing CO2 is the opposite of green

[@SS-rz1oc]

I referred your videos on the EV Facts to our local fire chief and lieutenants. Thank you. As you are aware, in advance, thanks for preventing a tragedy.

[@jaimeriveras]

Maybe because I'm engineer, but I don't think making a mistake in calculations - however well reviewed - is not unusual. You just tell people about it, make the corrections, and move on, as you just did. Thanks.

[@18_rabbit]

* me thinks u meant "is unusual" ? to err is human. That's why automation in various things can be so good for ppl's safety and efficiency.

[@MattBlack6]

Also to note. If Ioniq boy wants to tow something, he's going to drastically increase his energy consumption. Wildtrack girl, not so much.

[@waynerussell6401]

The physics is the same for everyone.

[@santaklaus111]

Hi John, I really like your show and have learnt a lot from it. Your calculations about the carbon footprint of an EV vs a diesel were based on the average electricity grid. What about customers who have an electricity provider that at least claims to provide carbon neutral electricity? As well, I was surprised that you compared the conventional prices of an EV with a large diesel, when currently you can make significant savings on EVs and PHEVs through leasing due to the tax benefits.

[@louspinelli1745]

Hello John, big fan. I do have one question as to the CO2 number that you are using for the internal combustion engine. Are you only calculating the tailpipe emissions of that burned fuel, or are you also taking into account all of the CO2 involved in capturing the crude oil, refining the crude oil, transporting the crude oil, etc. as you are doing for the battery of the electric vehicle? I also agree with you totally that the biggest help is cleaning up our dirty grids. Coal has to go!

[@jasonsvarc4424]

Very good point. The full emissions have not been accounted for in regards to the extraction, refining and transportation of oil.

[@PowerOn-]

Apparently Jon is an engineer who makes mistakes - this is a huge one and unfortunately he does it so often it's inexcusable. In fact it is deliberate, only he knows why he does it.

[@Low760]

The other catch would be, the short trip ev would not reach 150,000km in ten years on average I would imagine, you do less km in your little runabout than your tow/trip car. Or in ten years the software is out of date, and the vehicle is bricked.

[@lynnoettl5996]

I appreciate your work. The big question that no one can answer is what is the ideal ppm of CO2?

[@Leonardo555ZZZ]

In the past , life and bio-diversity flourished when CO2 was many times higher than now....and no , the planet did not enter thermal runaway , it actually got colder.

[@jamesballard5661]

Hi John, firstly, respect for fessing up, secondly, congrats on a great channel and great content. Thirdly, you mentioned EV manufacturers having to cater for the school run as well as the long trip. Wouldn’t it be nice if they designed an EV model that all used the same platform, then made it so you could use a 40kwh or a 140kwh battery pack according to your needs to reduce weight and charging time for short journeys then, for pre-arranged long trips, “swap over” (similar to the battery power tool, 2ah, 5ah etc, but by a qualified person obviously) to a large battery, all batteries being on a “pay as you go” rental basis. This would also negate the battery longevity issue and the massive costs involved on older EVs. I’m willing to share the profit with you for this idea, I’ll be spending mine on diesel for my highly maintained Landcruiser 100 series which is 19 years old and is low mileage, in mint condition and good for another20 years at least (arguably the real way to save the planet 👍)

[@tubaman66]

Respect to you for owning your error. Hope the punishment session with Tiffany wasn't too painful!

[@dougreid2351]

Having not yet seen the oft' mentioned "Tiffany" I remain unconvinced that she is real... DOUG out

[@beecee1235]

Boadicea, another female kick ass hero..... Some experiences make us "levitate" while others keep us "grounded". But all help to make us who we are. Fair dinkum mate. You run an excellent channel. Thanks.

[@0HOON0]

Boudica?

[@Slappingplastic]

​@@0HOON0 depends on the author and record keeper

[@sjion]

That's why you're easy to respect. You are 100% up front. Love you long time.

[@gerhardusoosthuizen0]

Hey John, I have been sitting on this question for a while and I think it is a good time to pose it. Have you had a look into the use of redox flow batteries (vanadium or zinc bromine) for home energy storage? They are far less energy dense than lithium-based chemistries, however, for stationary home storage their benefits seem to far outweigh that particular downside. Given the relative abundance of the elements used in the most common redox electrolytes, and the comparative ease with which they can be recycled, redox batteries are far less CO2 intensive to produce. Therefore, WildTrack girly would be even better off after ~10 years with a redox flow battery paired with her solar array - bonus points for not storing a potential source of a runaway exothermic chemical reaction near her home.

[@pweb4941]

cost of production? Hydrogen is plentiful too......

[@abcoates]

Great video, but I wondered if we should talk about what "zero emissions" really means. I mean, at first reading you would think it means "no emissions anywhere", as you have treated it. However, if I look at what seems to be driving the various government pushes against ICE cars, it's about cleaner air in big cities, so it's not so much "no emissions anywhere" as "no emissions in the street where my kids walk and play". At least EVs can deliver on that view of it - well, except for the particulates from their rubber tyres and brake discs...

[@abcoates]

Oh, I really like your comparison about installing home solar/battery versus buying an EV. Great idea!

[@symbungee]

❤ Respect. You own your error and correct it.

[@AutoExpertJC]

It's not that hard. Just sucks a bit to have done it wrong in the first place.

[@johnnumbat9782]

Good on you JC - you’re truly a fellah of many dimensions and balance (yes we know how you subscribe to Tiffany’s with glee) - what? I hear them say … you’re not allowed to make a genuine mistake sometimes? - your honest advice has saved many of us from making one so thanks for your integrity which is rare these days from our political leaders and corporate low moral institutions that don’t care about people’s lives - and yes STEM is one of our society’s biggest saviours - enjoy Tiffany 😏

[@borneobudi3431]

Excellent you have just proved you are ethical an a human being. A real engineer / salt of the earth fesses up to his mistakes.

[@ElectricCarAustralia]

Thanks for the stand up correction John. 👍 Agree the investment on the solar is better bang for $ and enviro buck before thinking EV. Keep up the great work delivering honest, interesting & practical videos across multiple subjects.

[@shutthegate8232]

the EV push may be more about eventual control, restrictions, geofencing, shut offs, out of reach of ordinary people etc, than the planet. Some other things make way more sense and are way more workable without throwing a baby out with the bathwater and leaving a high percentage of people high and dry.

[@staceycostello459]

Hi John, a question I have about the EV versus diesel comparison. The 7500kg of CO2 to make the battery makes sense, but the CO2 emissions from the diesel as I understand your calculations are only from the time that the diesel is put into your tank. Should the calculations not include the CO2 that it takes to produce the diesel before you put it in your tank? I’m not arguing one way or the other, but as you say the facts are important and it just seems the whole process is getting counted for the battery production, but not from the oil coming out of the ground until it gets to the service station. I may have misunderstood and please correct me if I have. Regards Stacey

[@PowerOn-]

You are correct, Jon has failed to account for this (and a few other key items as well!

[@paddyhanna107]

Hi John. Great that you are owning this. Respect. One thing that I noticed / wondered. Did you consider the losses associated with charging the battery. From my understanding a good LiPO4 battery and a high efficiency charger is only 89% efficient in truing grid energy into a charged battery (hence the active cooling during charging). If this is note factored into the calculation you will be around 11% worse in terms of converting Grid energy into stored battery energy. Just wondering...

[@Paxmax]

Good on ye John. The one thing I found "Hang on, isn't that's contradictory..?"; If Iono-boy's compensatory solar panels are dismissed as impossible due to current city housing strategy... so is the avg Wildtrack-girls home solar-battery offset. In essence, you can only hope to ICE-carbon compensate if you live in proper detactched housing... and a 20kWh daily avg panel array is massive. Not only do you have to have (for 'Stralia) proper North facing solar area, also needs to be daily shade free from trees, antennas lamp posts etc. Even the seemingly minor shading from a lamp post has a huge impact on energy harvesting. This is due to the function of massive amounts of solar cells needed being in series to generate enough voltage = one small cell in shade = entire panel is sort of in shade (by a freakin tree twig or roof top antenna).

[@NexGen-3D]

You still bated me to click, that’s because you are the Master Bater! ;)

[@AutoExpertJC]

Master Baition is my super-power, duuuuuuuude!

[@dougstubbs9637]

The biggest problem with yesterday’s’ video is the same as today’s video. Still no bin camera, lack of effective scoreboard.

[@AutoExpertJC]

Slack me...

[@dougstubbs9637]

@@AutoExpertJC why not ask one of your Ming Moles to borrow their Ho Pro camera ?

[@AutoExpertJC]

The HoPros get a complete flogging...

[@dougstubbs9637]

@@AutoExpertJC 😂😂😂😂 feather duster, or whole chook ?

[@AutoExpertJC]

They're ruggedised, so 'full fowl'.

[@DelticEngine]

Great video, John. I love your content and subscribed years ago because of the practicalities and physics you so competently explain. I think it would be interesting to determine the 'environmental' credentials of an EV charged with power from a nuclear power station. How much nuclear waste would be produced and the consequences of that radioactive waste. To my mind, what would be effectively a nuclear powered vehicle would be the most environmentally unfriendly vehicle imaginable.

[@miketanner8943]

Hi John. Thankyou for your honesty and having the courage to admit an error and then correct it. It's a pity that more journalists don't follow your standards. Further to your video with regard to total emissions from EVs.........could I ask you for your comments on the following- The Ranger should have a life expectancy of say 20 years (minimum) while the life expectancy of an EV battery is about 8 years. For the EV then a further 7.5T of carbon would need to be released to replace the battery and then again, say, 8 years later. Also, what would be the carbon footprint of recycling EV batteries? Would it be possible for you to arrange an "educational meeting" with our current Federal Energy Minister, Chis Bowen, and apprise him of some hard facts about the EV dream? He seems to believe that the adoption of EV's will drastically reduce Australia's carbon footprint. Clearly it won't. Thankyou Regards Mike T Richmond

[@_ShadoE_]

I have not watched the previous video yet but did John take into account carbon emitted to refine the fuel as well? Since I would imagine that would also be part of ice's carbon emmissions. (much like the production of the battery)

[@stevenhogarth8945]

No, I don’t think he did. That being said, I believe the overall premise of the video is to show that EV’s are not as green as car manufactures (and the media mouthpieces) say they are.

[@_ShadoE_]

@@stevenhogarth8945 that's fine I was just kinda interested if it was closer than what was calculated for, kinda a damned if we do damned if we don't

[@clintmader3079]

Hello John. Well done owning up to your mistake. Great integrity. I did notice that you calculated the EV battery at 7000kg of CO2, which it should. However within your calculations for the ICE vehicle did your CO2 figures also include the production of each litre of fuel used?

[@dposer10]

well if you're gonna go there then you should include the same info for the electric production the ev uses

[@Markymilarky]

Just started watching your channel, realy fantastic, so informative and hilariously funny. Thank yoooooooooou

[@boogerhead0]

Spot on, Mate.. from a dude in the states. A pal of mine is an exec in a large northeast power distribution corp, he is always puking the virtues of EV. So I sent him a dose of reality in the form of this, your, YT informational. Thanks, not in advance. BTW... I had the "pleasure" of being held hostage and the inherent financial rapage that goes with it, of a visit to Hayman Island... beautiful, and "captivating", er, hostage, at the same time... just a passing mention, since one of your viewers, having been raped by the VW radiator escapade place, from the place called Sunshine Coast, may have been a recipient, in a way, of the passed down rapage I experienced at Whitsundays.

[@gbr562]

If you measure the co2 during electricity production at the power station, surely you need to also include the full production process of creating the fuel at the pump and not just the co2 burned by running the ic engine. Co2 for a unit of fuel compared to an equivalent unit of electricity. My guess is you'll need to add another 25% for the fuel production supply chain.

[@almem7457]

Good point. Also need to consider emission of NOx gases by ICE engines and their detrimental health effects.

[@peterbennett2301]

I agree we need to compare like for like but John is absolutely going in the right direction. Also lifetime ownership costs in terms of CO2 impact need to be factored into the model

[@bikesbabes4721]

The irony is that CO2 captured at these facilities can be turned back into oil by algae without ever reaching the greenhouse canopy some seem to fear so much.

[@kimmokannala4576]

And a lot of Cobalt to purify that fuel.

[@kimmokannala4576]

@@peterbennett2301 One might need to take into account also how the recycling of batteries affect the equation. Materials are dug and processed once, then recycled.

[@freedomovertyranny1770]

You'll never be Prime Mincer with this level of honesty 😂

[@fabiofiorindo9856]

@John, May worth considering the following: lithium battery holding capacity drop the more you charge. Also lithium battery performance are dictate by weather and temperature

[@ianthomson4427]

Thanks John - Love the data based comparison. You have a good handle on the energy situation, what do you think it would take to get rid of coal?

[@markdebsauzzietravels]

Hi John I have 2 points that you may have to add in 1) Have you added the steel going in to make the EV plus the battery? 2) how long will the EV battery last till it has to be replaced? Cheers Mark

[@Drewbyy]

You’d probably have to take into account the co2 in both cars manufacture and compare every step. Possibly should have been done as an engine and gear box would take a good chunk of co2 to produce. Not sure if the co2 for the production of the fuel is also taken into account. Then you’d also have to look at the electric motor. I’m guessing the chassis would be on a similar level of co2.

[@waynerussell6401]

a typical NCA/M cell loses 5% over the first 50000 miles, then settles down to 1% a year under high charge/discharge conditions. In typical EV use with 25% discharge they last indefinitely. Battery disposal is solved and allows 95% of the constituents to be recycled into another battery.

[@jasonhall7753]

Hey John, awesome video and it does take a decent human to admit when they have made a mistake. Kudos there. I really enjoy your videos and this is no exception. It all looks very good right up to the point of the money discussion. Yes Wildtrack Girl saved on the purchase price between the vehicles, but she also had to pay $2.20 per lite of diesel for her 15000 kms per year while Ioniq Boy plugged into the grid and charged his EV on (presumably off peak) power in your analysis. We would need to look at the net cost per km or year of the difference between those two and that difference becomes the amount Wildtrack Girl has to buy her kick arse solar array and battery. By my reckoning, her 15000km of travel will cost her about $4k in fuel costs each year, so she runs out of cash for her solar array and battery within 4 years. Ioniq Boy, on the other hand, will spend just a few hundred bucks a year off peak to charge his battery car. I'm not sure we can call it so totally in favour of Wildtrack Girl on the basis of this economic reality, but I'd love to see you run those calculations in there too. Just because money is a factor, as you say, so we should put that into the analysis to ensure a level playing field in the numbers. Either way, top marks, and I fully agree that the fixation on EVs as the panacea of all solutions to emissions is just a load of virtual signaling bollocks, and is a distraction from the real issues we have to reach net zero. Keep up the great videos John!

[@PrisonerD]

I find it interesting too that if you factor in a smaller diesel than the Wildtrack (say my BMW 320d for example), then at 125g per km CO2, it’s virtually as clean as an Ionic 5 in the coal fired states, but I can get 1000km range urban, nearly 1300km highway and refuel in 5 mins anywhere in Austalia. Until EVs get a lot cheaper than they are now, and the grid cleans up its act, I’ll be sticking with the diesel for as long as possible. As EVs are taken up, diesel will get cheaper due to falling demand.

[@rattusfinkus]

@@PrisonerD What was never considered is the embodied CO2 in the fossil fuel, the energy needed to extract, transport, refine and distribute diesel. Estimates are between 30-40% in addition to tail pipe emissions.

[@PrisonerD]

@@rattusfinkus Sure - but the same applies to coal mining and transport for electricity production, and there’s lithium, copper and cobalt mining too. At the other end of the EV's life the problem of battery recycling hasn’t been solved yet either, where as most of an ICE car can be recycled. This should be solved in time, and the energy grid will be cleaned up, at which point I’ll happily convert to an EV, or whatever the best solution is at that point. In the meantime, less consumption and looking at energy efficiency are much faster ways to bring down emissions.

[@rattusfinkus]

@@PrisonerD 40% of global shipping is dedicated to shipping fossil fuels

[@rattusfinkus]

@@PrisonerD the other thing to consider is that PV and battery ownership, i assume, would be much higher amongst EV owners right now and will only increase as battery and PV prices continue to fall. So look at a LFP EV with a potential 1 million kilometres of lifespan, during this time the grid will become greener. Battery recycling will happen when there's enough batteries to recycle. Electricity retailers are already talking about TOU and dynamic power pricing to load shift EV charging which further shifts the economics and the CO2 reductions. And we haven't talked about V2G which is not ready yet but soon will be.

[@NickAlbu]

Well done on this video, and even the first one with the mistake. The concept of the video was great. Using the largest EV and the largest ICE vehicles to make your point is spot on. As an average viewer I would like to see the results of the math comparing a middle of the range EV and ICE car. Something the average masses would buy. I'm interested in the break even point on those cars. Some folks only go 10km in a year, and trade them in every 3 years, but I like to keep my cars for 10 years or 300,000kms or until they need to go the the heap. Having the comparison for these cars would help more people decide if EV is useful for them now. Cheers

[@phillipwarburton9820]

This is just the current Emissions today. Assuming it won’t change, but it will. Gvts are committed around the world to reduce emissions, so the probability in the future that charging an EV in Australia will produce less and less carbon over time. So it’s already better today in 2023 (as John said after a certain amount of KM travelled) and we can predict it will only get better as the energy mix changes. And also as production changes. The batteries used today will not be the same in 10 years time - carbon in production of these vehicles will drop. I'd also be interested to know if the CO2 emissions for extraction, refining and transporting (sea and land) petroleum was included in John's calculations

[@LiamE69]

Nice one John. I commented on the video yesterday saying I was seeing different numbers. This explains why. Mistakes are not the problem, its the people that think they never make them themselves and can't put their hand up when they do.

[@yasi4877]

Appreciate your honesty John. May the IPCC and others admit to theirs? I have become aware of the environmental damage being done with the installation of wind turbines in pristine Qld forest areas with the creation of access tracks and operating space around each to get clear air. Birds, bats and insects are going to be destroyed in huge numbers over the lifetime of these installations with far reaching effects over the wider area. Similarly with solar farms due to the heat generated being potentially fatal to an even wider group of animals and birds crossing over and under. Then we come to BEVs. What are the health risks of extended exposure sitting for hours within the magnetic field of a giant battery? Equivalent to holding a mobile phone to each ear I have heard or getting a continuous dose of EMF radiation? I'd like to know, if we ever will know? And we need to remind ourselves that we are doing this while ignoring the fact that the atmosphere consists of 99.999% other than man-made CO2. If we eeked out a reduction of man-made CO2 from .001% to .0009% what good if anything, will come from that? In the meantime I'm hanging on to my 2016 Kia Cee'd diesel at least until EV range can match that. Could be a long wait?

[@colinbrowne281]

Imagine if wildtrack girl bought a Picanto that suited her requirements 99% of the time and rented a diesel ute/4WD for the 1% of time that she actually needed to

[@essentialmix1606]

Lol

[@NickoFaTe]

How do you account for what I can best term "opportunity cost" - the EV from the grid is emitting something that would be occurring anyway i.e the emission is occurring if you run the e.v or not, the ice car is additional emissions not already occurring via the grid? Or am I misunderstanding here?

[@100Jeanluc]

Hi John, while this has been a great example of how it should be done, I doubt whether many will copy it. Saving face, unfortunately, seems to be the go-to method. Kudos to you Dude.

[@jake321able]

If battery replacement is added to calculation, will it change your conclusions? Not sure data is available on battery life...thanks for what you do. I am still not convinced an EV is worthwhile, as I keep my ICE vehicles for 15-20 years for 200-300K miles.

[@johnclayton6676]

My thoughts exactly. What about when the EV battery dies (10 years?). How easy to replace, cost, waste disposaletc, whilst the ICE vehicle can keep going for maybe 500, 000 km? With regular service

[@brianjensen5200]

The answer to that is somewhat compounded by a few unknowns and some imaginary wishes. First of all, data (quality?) is slowly emerging that it looks like ev batteries in general last much longer than anticipated. This doesn't mean they don't loose performance, it just means that average performance lost doesn't force everyone to go replace the battery. It's probably more the same scenario as those friends you might have that has an older phone and accept that they may need to charge a few times during the day instead of overnight. This means, EVs out there still goes without battery swaps, on average for a much longer lifespan. Second thing to consider is, once we do get worn out ev batteries in large quantities, then recycling will flourish, and that'll lead to a new generation of ev batteries with much lower manufacturing pollution foot prints. Of course, time is what will tell us how all of this really eventuates.