If you flip a fair coin 30 times - how many times would it come up tails?

Understand the difference between theoretical and experimental probability - the law of large numbers.
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[@johnstrawb3521]

@TabletClass Math How on Earth did we not end up with a continuous probability distribution, aka a curve known as a probability density function? Such a simple next step. It warranted at least a link if it wasn't going to be shown here. Students, wouldn't you like to know how often after 1,000 trials of 30 flips each the coin will, on average, come up tails 15 times? 16 times? 29 times?

[@Vipre-]

There's no way to know. It could very well come up tails 30 times. The idea that it'll be a 15/15 split every time is a falsehood. It's fun to watch gamers complain about this when they don't understand how they missed three 95% shots.

[@argentum530]

This has been tested with thousands of flips and the side which faces up when flipped has a slight statistical advantage.

[@elisabethrasmussen9232]

The coin has no memory. Each flip of the coin is 50/50

[@CuriousKL]

I worked in department call spc, statistical process controls. We performed an experiment that ended with us knowing the longer the test is ran the closer to 50% within the bell shaped curve.

[@franklinchinquee8762]

I'd imagine that if you hold all the conditions equal for a small sample, the experimental would equal the theoretical. But yes if the samples have random conditions, a large one would cause the experimental to approach the theoretical outcome.

[@MrMousley]

There is no way of knowing for sure. Each flip may be a 50/50 chance that you get a head or a tail which means that, in theory, you should get 15 tails, but you'd probably have to flip way more than 30 times to get closer to a 50/50 result overall in reality.

[@danielmadden9691]

You're quite right John, it needs some thouht and insight

[@dwaipayandattaroy9801]

15 times i think

[@duggydugg3937]

maximum likelihood estimator says the more tries, the closer to 50/50

[@timhansn362]

On first go around it could be 13,14 or 16,17. What is the probability of 10 or 20 or even coming up heads or tails more that 5 times in a row? How many times of 30 coin flip go arounds would it come up 50-50 in a 100 tries? 4-5 times?

[@chucktaylor4958]

About 15. Though every thirty tosses would differ.

[@michaelnaretto3409]

Use a two headed coin so it never happens. Kidding aside, it could happen every time or not happen at all.

[@danielmadden9691]

If the same trial is repeated many times it could hold true to 15 times on average.

[@iitncompany]

19/30 ? what about sample cases 2 to the power 30 ?

[@khadijah109i]

6:59

[@busby777]

in the real world, the tails side tends to be heavier, so the coin tends to come up heads more often

[@sandbilly100]

In the real world the variability in coin design throughout the world is uhhh… to variable to say tails is always heavier.

[@thomasparker7468]

I mean there is a low chance it could be neither heads or tails

[@thomasparker7468]

I mean the tails is heavier I’m pretty sure

[@Erin-lx2er]

It depends.. Is head up or tails up?

[@danielmadden9691]

15 times on average

[@danielcase1046]

50%, give or take 20%

[@sandbilly100]

15

[@donfaris926]

50-50

[@Truth845]

15 50/50 chance just guessing

[@danielcase1046]

am I of track?

[@dwaipayandattaroy9801]

what if 17 times flipped then. It's unfair

[@dwaipayandattaroy9801]

17/ 34 . formula said 1/2 but 17 Shots 1/2 of 17 is 8.5 , 0.5 is Shaolin Soccer Coin Scene Coin noting up ✌🏻 math olympiad Oscar grammy nobel all won ✌🏻