Indicators Warning Recession Is On The Way -- Will Fed Hikes Guarantee One?

[@proych78]

22:45 - he's a perfect teacher who says: " ask me the important question". So thoughtful and insightful. Love this combination and keep waiting for them to return.

[@Just21Million]

So grateful for your insights.... quality content like this was nowhere to be found 10 - 15 years ago🙏

[@joebagodonuts8119]

Lance Roberts is great - clear, concise, pragmatic and balanced. His show on KZbin should have far more viewers.

[@jeffnapoliello]

Thanks!

[@smithraymond09029]

I love that these videos that were intended to run for 30 minutes, are slowly taking up to an hour to conduct. Every moment worth watching.

[@priscillasilverhouse3]

Yes! And please keep talking. We are all ears, loving every minute.

[@elainethompson5803]

I am "beyond grateful" for the two of you. Between Adam's insightful questions and Lance's unique ability to articulate for us as real a depiction of what is really going on with the markets... I really feel the generosity you both give to assist us retail investors. And... you are entertaining to boot!!! Thank you soooooooo much.

[@tjhesse8721]

I enjoy these no nonsense pragmatic weekly discussions. Very refreshing thank you.

[@yallaimshi8091]

Lance Roberts makes me realise I am not alone in my market positions and strategy. He is so reassuring.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@alanleahy1430]

Lance's comment about cash relative to inflation in regards to buying consumables versus assets was very insightful, I have never heard any other financial commentator explain it like this before! This is why we all tune in to listen when you guys have your weekly talk, great show once again 👍

[@jeffwalters5194]

I have been learning about how to best invest my small portfolio since last summer by watching many different channels .... but these Saturday videos with Lance have been the best. Extremely helpful and insightful. Thanks to Wealthion and Lance.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@dkvikingkd233]

The problem with getting a financial adviser is that you almost has to be as skilled as the adviser to safely determine if he's any good at his job..

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@gchekibed2099]

Every time I listen, there's a concept with a different angle or just a sentence of wisdom that I glean. I've listened and read so much that I think I've heard it all. But I keep picking up something worthwhile from your channel. So thanks, you seem to put a whole lot of effort into your content and I appreciate it.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@godsservant2835]

Adam, I know I keep commenting about these videos, but there is much value in these weekly recap interviews with you and Lance. Well done!

[@Wealthion]

So glad you like them!

[@stevematas7725]

This is the best weekly interview on the markets.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@Heklasfire]

This was one of the best interviews you guys have done. I found myself thinking about so many new concepts and ideas, and laughing along with Lance. You two are awesome.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@fhowland]

The land mine analogy is brilliant

[@rashedhoque]

Adam interview is so easy to follow even though you are not a market expert. I like the way he summarizes critical statements in a simple way for everyone to understand

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@migmoreno3211]

The conversations with Lance are very valuable because he provides a general sense of the market situation. Thanks

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@rhwinner]

The loss of value to your cash from inflation is the premium you pay to have the option to buy assets at lower valuations.

[@LO-yd5qz]

These weekly recaps are incredible useful ... A must see ...

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@padraigdevitt8755]

Thanks Adam and Lance 🙏. Feels like I have a seat at the adult table each week 😏.

[@jasonlee8148]

I live in Palm Desert, California. I believe your KZbin channel is the best. Thank you

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@paulshah5976]

Very educational and refreshing show, that all investors need to heed. Adams brings in the best of his guest.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@federicofavretto9619]

Can't thank you enough for your generosity in sharing such precious and extremely valuable insights. Very happy the duration of these video is progressively increasing.... Every minute literally worth listening to. You guys really are the lighthouse in the darkness.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@phuckerandrewkirby]

27:35 Lance, it was here long before you knew since you did not work at Fort Detrick, MD!

[@ridzuanali1919]

Thank you very much, Adam and Lance. Take care and God bless.

[@joangentili8484]

Thanks guys from Australia 🇦🇺

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@craigmackey8500]

Best weekly update out there

[@dimitrisl1247]

Consistently excellent market analysis - thank you Adam and Lance!

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@drew9312]

Great content from Lance yet again (including calling the recent rally) and great questions from Adam. Thank you both.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@20775046]

I love this channel now. I wish they talked about sector rotation and specific indicators that they use when trading / investing.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@neuralnetwork1]

Best guest..honest and simplied complex jargn of market ...thanks for your time👍

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@Kimber-bz9fe]

Absolutely honest & genuine guest. I don’t gamble the stock market but what a genuine man for the people. God Bless to him

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@harrison1821]

The chart shown around the 15-minute mark is great. I would love to also see what the CPI was at the end of the hiking cycle

[@just_joc]

Best market recap ever, thank you!

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@sherl7435]

I really enjoy this weekly wisdom with Lance ❣️

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@massonh7476]

The questions and answers are superb 👏

[@justthefacts1975]

I wonder what impact the effect of the huge March Options Expiration on Friday had a Markets last week? The possible scenario I imagine could have played out has been that (1) the Markets did a typical Bear Market bounce last week (for typical reasons, like Fund Managers deploying cash pre quarter end, a lot of signals flashing "oversold" recently, Market selling exhaustion generally etc etc). (2) the March Options Expiration fuels an acceleration of buying into the Friday expiration date, as Dealers hedge their options positions, which amplifies the upward move. So the Market moved up at a decent clip. (3) after the sell off since 1 Jan, a lot of investors were caught in short positions in an upward market move. So the short squeeze amplifies the upward move. And so we get a strong rally over the last week. Not because the Markets have necessarily fundamentally changed it's course, but because of Market dynamics, with it's volatility fuelled by derivatives activity. The real story of last week, will be told next week. And if my theory has some validity, next week could be an historic bloodbath, as those Options Dealers liquidate their recent buying, which they no longer need to cover positions that expired on Friday, and Investors go back to putting in place their short positions again... Or I could be totally wrong, and this week will be more of the same, and last week was a genuine move back to an upward trend. Time will tell.

[@brankovalic7075]

Great show, great guests. Enjoying and learning 🙏

[@adm58]

Excellent discussion. Thank you both.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@dkvikingkd233]

The inflation argument was spot on:-)

[@ryanrayner8143]

Thanks again!

[@marcgerges1380]

Recaps are great!!

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@moon8canoe]

Thank you, Lance, Adam. This is so helpful.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@DorziaFlash]

Fantastic! Thank you guys.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@travishicks9607]

Another excellent presentation, subject matter expertise and longer range perspective.

[@hagbardc623]

Yet again a great lesson. Lance is the MAN! I like the reminders here, especially the one about that cash in your IRA is not a bad thing if it will be deployed to but things at a value. Great stuff thanks.

[@johnkobialko4765]

Great job guys

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@sorornishicffbaddcde8567]

Excellent stuff as usual.

[@pawellec1969]

this series is great. Thanks Adam and keep it going pls 🙂

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@chloemaxwell2628]

I wish there was a Canadian version of this show.

[@ausiinvestor]

Thank you Lance of RIA and Adam of Wealthion another great Video is very helpful information in difficult times thanks again.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@SCOTT-ki3ve]

I'd love it if Wealthion covered TIPS in detaiI in a video sometime. I can't figure out if they are a great deal or a terrible idea. They seem to be too good to be true. What's the downside? No one seems to recommend them. Your channel is OUTSTANDING, really top notch

[@goombazi]

I really love these recaps…extremely insightful! Thank you gents!

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@MrThemurillos]

Thanks u two Shalom

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@henrypadilla7571]

Keep these coming. 😃😃

[@nxlevelsicc]

Great watch!

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@alexferguson4889]

Great video fellas as always. Been sitting in 20% cash for over a year now and still waiting…

[@scsu300]

Plotting a trendline of the historical length of these weekly market recap videos is similar to their quality...Up and to the right.

[@ntartaris]

Adam and Lance......THANK YOU! This has to be one of the best vids you've done. Not just technical, but REALLY informative regarding investing and basic strategy fundamentals. Thank you for the continual and easier to understand education. I also thank myself for having the initiative to do something about my financial and economic knowledge. And congratulate those who have the discipline to do the same. The greatest threat to society today is the MSM. Their complete MO to confuse and misinform, is criminal. Forever grateful.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Still watching Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@chewysoon82]

nice sharing today...

[@wissamali3136]

That was a great conversation how to think about and manage cash in a portfolio.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@paulsommerhalder9049]

TLT took a hit today on a Powell off-the-cuff remark that he "could" go 50 basis points, there was nothing to stop-him. No traffic cop writing him an interest rate speeding ticket😄

[@winthorpe2560]

Thanks guys, I finally understand what an inverted yield curve is!!! I feel a bit like Neo, “I know kung fu!!”

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@elmahfoudafgane766]

Love all your podcasts,a subscriber from Canada

[@bitfreedom]

GREAT VIDEO

[@billjames3030]

I have cash on the sidelines and not worried about inflation eating some of it up.

[@CaryHawkins]

How does one get proper bond exposure like he described? I'm a bond newbie. Dumb it down for me.

[@3765-n3j]

Buy TLT I think.

[@scottfuscomusic]

20 thumbs up! Please talk about how Lance bet sizes in future videos. How much bigger of a position does he consider “overweight” to be prudent without undermining proper diversification?

[@מאירדרפקינד]

Thank you Lance for explaining about the value of money: What we can do with our money over time. The value of assets depreciated since the beginning of the year

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@chriskenney4377]

Adam: Markets are made of people. Does Lance have a profile of categories of investors in the Market, eg. institutions, single investors, hedge funds, etc. Who potentially makes the market move?

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@markmcwilliams2461]

Double thumbs up !

[@thomasviola3552]

Fear always gets the best of me. All in cash. Was waiting for just the right moment to buy into QQQ, FB, ARKK, GOOG, etc. Saw market start to go up Tuesday, but by the time I realized I should have gotten in, felt it was too late (so much higher than lows) and that I should wait for a dip. 4 days straight of rocketing up with no dip and now feel so dumb for not just biting the bullet and going in Tuesday knowing how oversold it was. So now not sure what to do. For example, how can I pay 216 for FB when it was 187 just 4 trading days ago?? Or ARKK at 65 when it was 52, or SHOP at 712 when it was 510? This why I never get in, always feel it is too expensive and then it still goes higher ... but that's because I think it can drop half way down after rallying so far. So I wonder what opinion Lance would have. Just bite the bullet and get in (maybe half my money?)? Wait for a pullback? Wait until recession happens? I've lost a lot this year already out of fear so I'm skittish. Maybe my gut isn't strong enough for this volatile market. Just looking for opinion, not "advice". ;)

[@JRP026]

I was in with oil nuclear and fertilizer in December among other well known stocks. Decided just before the pullback to sell everything because the oil nuclear fertilizer wasn’t making up for my losses with the well known stocks and I knew some fear was coming (then black swan, Russia/Ukraine). Biggest mistake I made in a while. Won’t be the first or the last. I’m ready to get back in with those 3 tbh. Commodities cycle everyone’s talking about and just hold for a while. Consistent cost basis buy in. I need to buy a house but those are overvalued, I think commodities could still be undervalued even with the rise they just had. All 3 I mentioned have been on a consistent volatile(uranium) upward trend since 2020.

[@yallaimshi8091]

I share your pain but these rallies are likely to reverse just as quickly. I try to think about what I would do differently next time

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

Just want to give you the hard truth. Trading is extremely difficult to do successfully. 90%+ lose money. 99%+ can't beat a long term buy and hold strategy. I have made a few of the mistakes as you, so I sympathise. Not only do you need to sell close to the tops, and buy close to bottoms, you have to market time correctly 2 times per trade, your gains also have to be greater than the long term returns of the stock market, they have to cover brokerage fees and additional taxes, plus you need to pay for your time spent on analysis. My opinion is you shouldn't be trading this market unless you have years of experience with a proven track record over years of making gains higher than losses. If you really want to trade, put in a tiny amount of play money until you perfect your strategy, control emotions, manage risk well, etc. In the meantime DCA into great companies with reasonable prices, or into ETFs might work better if you are investing for 20+ years.

[@thomasviola3552]

@@JRP026 Thanks. Yes those have done so well.

[@thomasviola3552]

@@Natures_Symmetry Yes it helps a lot. You are absolutely right. And I should have known better. I keep repeating the same bad behavior. Time for a change. Thanks.

[@HarpalSingh-id5kv]

hi adam and lance,could u please do a fundamental session on how these big banks and hedge funds funds their position,i mean what is there cheapest way of funding,if its repo then does it matter hiking .25 basis point, thanks,appreciate u guys

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@supanova4126]

Great show as alway! Thank you! A question please: if after inversion of yield curve and money piles into long duration bonds driving up bond prices wouldn’t that drop longer dated yields more? So if longer dated yields drop more wouldn’t that further invert? Not un-invert? Thank you!

[@pedantic70]

Maybe what happens is that short term yields drop suddenly, which causes the un-inversion.

[@johnmerlino7011]

Lance, one question regarding the 'long end of the curve' has kept me from buying 10 year bonds. Could the Fed lose control of the 10 year bond yield, when they try to reduce/sell the Fed's balance sheet of bonds ($ 9 Trillion) starting in May? The Fed owns 1/4 of all bonds outstanding! What if demand for our bonds decline and they need to "increase yield levels to sell long-term bonds"? Why should we expect to sell 10 year bonds at 2.15% yield when Inflation is increasing at a double digit rate? Lance/Adam, any thoughts on the chances of a spiking 10 year yield at future Fed Auctions? Thanks!

[@alexferguson4889]

Don’t hold me too it but I’m pretty sure the long term bonds (5-7-10-30 year) are set by the market. The Fed only has control and buys short term bonds. The only long term investment they tackle is the MBS. But please correct me if I’m wrong.

[@therandlecycle1337]

@@alexferguson4889 Lol...No...the Fed owns tons of MBS and long term treasuries. You can see the composition of the balance sheet on their website.

[@pedantic70]

Good question!

[@johnmerlino7011]

@@pedantic70 Every expert I hear talks to the opportunity to buy the long end of the curve and await the mid-year economic weakness and earnings recession (for a drop in long yields) but we are still at very low 10 year yield historical rates. The logical question is, for any reason, can the rate pop significantly if weekly auction demand drops for long bonds, if it is market controlled. Maybe it could be a prolonged market selloff, like what happened on the week of March 16th, 2020.

[@priscillasilverhouse3]

So awesome!! Best yet, if that's possible. I need to listen again. Thanks for the reminder thar the market might do the unexpected and invest as such to cover all bases. Thank you both. Brilliant analysis! 👏

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@padraigdevitt8755]

Let’s go !

[@gabrielw7773]

I think the one thing that is for sure is if they want to keep this market inflated then so will inflation.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@ls48848]

I'm confused about how money coming into the bond market would push yields up as Lance described. Money moving into bonds would push bid the price up, lowering the yield. Anyone able to clarify?

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@bryancanter1943]

Hi Adam. I’d love to get an update from David Hunter to see if his predictions are still on track.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@johntakacs6482]

Fuck me, I love his podcast and yes Alfonsi the bond guy is brilliant.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@gardnerdavis]

I thank both of you guys for these discussions I have only been trading 1 yr. 1/2 . I need this insight into the market ,very helpful.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@plainboxer1]

What are the odds in Vegas on that over/under? lol

[@heyjude6335]

I'd love to see a colab with Peter Leeds. His yt channel is no bling, just truth. He is a teacher of the market, economy. Very great as well. I appreciated this interview. Tu

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@xiangyang99]

I have to disagree with Lance. Certain things I know will never happen, like oil price can never go to zero or negative. Oh wait ...

[@kelvinkwok2066]

Market is crazy... Completely irrational...

[@johnbirman5840]

Good Advice re Stocks Just because it’s Cheap doesn’t mean it’s worth buying. Perhaps it’s Cheap for a reason? Reminds me of a quote from Winston Churchill: “ He was a very humble man. And he had much to be humble about”

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@jonathanlee5185]

​Yes on foreign investment flowing in to the S&P. Open a retail investment account in Italy (Fineco Bank) and you can invest in the EU and the US. Same in every country. The ECB and BoJ are propping up US Tech.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@gustavis85]

Minute 34. This is exactly why you buy gold.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@networth8754]

I believe this "rally" coincided with the 25 bps hike by the Fed and Jerome Powell's usual happy talk regarding a "soft landing". As commodities - namely oil - continue to be elevated the March CPI will print close to 9%. This will create tremendous political pressure to lift rates by 50 bps and take further balance sheet actions. We will see how the market reacts to the Fed meeting in May

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@johnparisi9669]

Lance was confusing when he talked about the yield curve ‘uninverting’. Doesn’t this mean long duration bond prices go down and yields go up. This would mean a sell off of the long duration bonds? What does uninvert mean in practice - selling long duration bonds?

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@sivi9741]

Great as usual. Fwiw about cash allocation, just give the same cash % allocation of what your afraid to lose in the market . Afraid losing 100% of your money in a crash , be all cash . A 20% correction ? Be 20% cash , etc . Cash is simply the best deflationary asset class so use it as such .

[@markphillips2648]

Amateur swing trader here and I have been loading up on “Gold Royalties” especially the largest royalties as a diversifier to my equities. Also holding short term cash, approximately 30 percent for the exact reasons stated. Thematic investing in agriculture stocks, fertilizer stocks and rare earths as well as uranium and soon to add defense etf’s. My final goal is rolling into property.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@guiart4728]

Would by bonds like crazy be something like buying TLT?

[@therandlecycle1337]

Yes, lol.

[@TbirdThunderstruck]

Any US treasuries will do well. Remember if you have shorter term US treasuries with higher yields (from inverted yield curves), there will be higher capital appreciation on those stocks, because yields are higher, and yields are likely to move down again rapidly on short term treasuries during deflationary/recessionary periods.

[@dkvikingkd233]

Companies are (normally) not investors they are producers..

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@MrTigerStarX]

There is no possible way interest rates will return to zero again. Lance is still wishful thinking there. Have Lance explain what breaks, and how much breaks, when we hit 3% Fed rate - which we very likely will.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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[@rgmoreno8445]

It all depends on what items or activities people will cut from their lives to compensate for the elevated prices. If the majority of people saved or invested their money over the past year or two. Maybe things wil be ok. If people are low on liquidity, and higher prices don’t come down. The middle class will lead the way in a liquidity squeeze.

[@Michael-qy1jz]

Just gotta print print print print print. Lol 8% inflation, chump change. Print print print print till we are Argentina. Lol

[@johnbirman5840]

Revising the numbers AFTER the fact: Hmmm, sounds like Winston Smith’s job in “1984” It must be wonderful to be always right ....after changing those pesky numbers.

[@user-iv2tk2gn4h]

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