How The Yield Curve Predicted Every Recession For The Past 50 Years

The yield curve was once just a wonky graph for academics and policymakers. But in recent years it has become a way to forecast looming recessions. The curve has helped predict every recession over the past 50 years. That means the curve accurately predicted even largely unforeseen downturns like the dot-com bubble of 2001 and the Great Recession in 2007.
As a result, news of yield curve inversions can now send markets tumbling. Policymakers keep a close eye on even small changes in the curve’s composition.
So how did this simple graph showing U.S. Treasury bond interest rates grow into one of the most reliable recession indicators we have? And what does a yield curve inversion really mean?
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How The Yield Curve Predicted Every Recession For The Past 50 Years

[@RusuSilva]

I used to believe that everyone loses during a recession, but some make millions. Similarly, I thought everyone went out of business in the Great Depression, but some started new ventures. In short, tough times bring losses for some and profits for others, all rooted in the right mindset. Now, I've saved $220k for the future, even though I'm a complete beginner.

[@RossiPopa]

An obvious way to invest for a recession is to buy shares in businesses that are likely to experience steady demand even in a downturn. Typically, those are consumers staple, utilities and healthcare companies. But of course, such decisions can’t be made by an average joe, a financial advisor is highly recommended in making this decisions..

[@RichardMoore-jg5tl]

Since the outbreak of 2020, which had a significant impact on the market, I've been running all of my investment decisions through an investment coach because their entire philosophy is centered around using a high-profit oriented blueprint while simultaneously going long and short, as well as reducing risk exposure as a hedge against inevitable downtrends. Underperforming is almost impossible when combined with their access to strange data and analysis.

[@FusunTumsavas-cq7tp]

How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

[@RichardMoore-jg5tl]

Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@FusunTumsavas-cq7tp]

I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.

[@keishaofthe]

As an elder millennial, one of the few advantages is having lived through the Great Recession. My advice. Reduce unnecessary expenses, increase your savings by investing in financial markets and do not sell. One thing I know for sure is that diversifying your income can help insulate you from much of the craziness going on in the world.

[@yvonnejoordan]

@Antonio Alejandro we’ve been in a rally for the last decade, you just gotta accept not everyone is as knowledgeable in the market to handle the opportunities a crash market presents, and unfortunately for me too, I got in 2019 right before the market’s melting point, I just hope I recover soon enough before retirement. Stay strong.

[@carter3294]

In this perilous time of recession, protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over. This is for stock holders.

[@chrismillson2779]

< Unfortunately, most people don't get this, the majority is after chasing tops/bottoms where they fail & get out of the game.>

[@Steyne968]

You can't really know the full risk rate except you are a pro. Reason I settled for advisory from a stocks guru, {Christine Blake Mckale}. Never been the same again with my holdings.

[@LuisVargas-ih5vm]

[@Steyne968]

If you need advice, look her up on the internet. the truth is multiple streams of income can’t be underrated in times like this.

[@joesphcu8975]

I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

[@alexyoung3126]

You’re right! The current market might give opportunities to maximize profit, but in order to execute such effective transactions, you must be a skilled practitioner.

[@lawerencemiller9720]

On the contrary, even if you’re not skilled, it is still possible to hire one. I am a project manager and my personal portfolio of approximately $750k took a big hit in April due to the crash. I quickly got in touch with a financial-planner that devised a defensive strategy to protect and profit from my portfolio this red season. I’ve made over $150k since then.

[@stephaniestella213]

@@lawerencemiller9720 That's actually quite impressive, I could use some Info on your FA, I am looking to make a change on my finances this year as well.

[@lawerencemiller9720]

I am being guided by “Eileen Ruth Sparks” who I found on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care supervision.

[@stephaniestella213]

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

[@bsetdays6784]

We all know that prices of almost everything aren’t coming down. Simply put, they're rising less. Costs are rising due to rising inflation. As we are evidently at the verge of hyperinflation, with the less haves bearing the brunt of the burden. I'm more concerned that the rising inflation may lead my entire $990k retirement funds to lose value. Where else could we put our cash?

[@brandywhite9317]

I would say the fin-market, but it is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on any shares/ETF you focus on.

[@selenajack2036]

Well, since COVID, it has become more difficult to create a strong financial portfolio, I advise you to create a diversification strategy. My coworker advised me to see a consultant. I did, and because to my advisor's assistance throughout this market fall, I actually gained almost $926K in profits. Despite the ups and downs, she employs defensive methods to safeguard my portfolio and generate gains.

[@kaylawood9053]

Really? I’ve actually been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Just never made up my mind. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?

[@selenajack2036]

Sure. There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But I only work with MRS MARISOL CORODOVA and we have been working together for nearly four years. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I concentrate on. She's well-grounded and known, shouldn't be a hassle finding her page.

[@roddywoods8130]

Thanks a lot for sharing, I just looked Mrs Marisol Cordovai up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.

[@jessicamoore3093]

In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.

[@alexyoung3126]

The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.

[@bobbymainz1160]

I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.

[@kimyoung8414]

Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.

[@bobbymainz1160]

I'm guided by Lisa Angelique Abel . An experienced coach with extensive financial market knowledge. While you can consider other options, her strategy has yielded positive results for me. She offers valuable insights, including entry and exit points for the securities I concentrate on.

[@kimyoung8414]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@williamyejun8508]

Things are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, but it's getting stronger compared to other currencies and things like gold and property. People are turning to the dollar because they think it's safer. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of high inflation. Where else can we keep our money?

[@alexyoung3126]

Personally, I would say have a mentor. Not sure where you will get an experience one, but if your knowledge of the market is limited, it seems like a good bet.

[@jessicamoore3093]

With the help of an investment advisor, I was able to diversify my $550K portfolio across multiple markets, and in just a few months, I was able to earn over $950K in net profit from high dividend yielding stocks, ETFs, and bonds

[@williamyejun8508]

Pls who is this coach that guides you? I’m in dire need of one

[@jessicamoore3093]

A good FA is critical for portf0lio diversification. My advisor is Helene Claire Johnson who can be found readily and has great understanding of the financial markets.

[@williamyejun8508]

Found her webpage by looking up her name online. She seems very proficient, scheduled a call.

[@michealwrubell4302]

I'd be retiring or working less in 5 years and I'm only curious how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments?? I earn around $165K per year but nothing to show for it yet

[@Walter_hill_]

Since the crash, I've been in the red. I’m playing the long term game, so I'm not too worried but Jim Cramer mentioned there are still a lot of great opportunities, though stocks has been down a lot. I also heard news of a guy that made $250k from about $110k since the crash and I would really look to know how to go about this.

[@martingiavarini]

There are actually a lot of ways to make high yields in a crisis, but such trades are best done under the supervision of Financial advisor.

[@Walter_hill_]

@Dan Brooks Impressive can you share more info?

[@Walter_hill_]

@Dan Brooks thanks for sharing this, I googled the lady you mentioned and after going through her resume, I can tell she's a pro. I wrote her and I'm waiting on her reply.

[@johnlennon232]

Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.

[@alexyoung3126]

Let's face it... buying more stocks & index funds during stock market corrections and bear markets is scary. Which makes it really hard to do for most people like me. I have 260k i want to transfer into an s&s isa but its hard to bite the bullet and do it.

[@joesphcu8975]

Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a FA for almost a year now, I started out with less than $200K and I'm just $19,000 short of half a million in profit.

[@lawerencemiller9720]

I agree with you totally , Yes they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio. I started with a trust Financial Adviser named "Helene Claire Johnson". She is verifiable and her work ethic complies with the US Investment Act of 1940. Her approach is transparent, allowing full ownership and control of my portfolio with very reasonable fees relative to my portfolio earnings.

[@ConradGosling]

The financial system has been artificially pumped for over a decade to ensure big pockets were lined; and now those same hands will make a fortune in the largest transfer of wealth in human history by shorting it on the way down. Inflation does have a roll, but that's to keep everyone panicked, and focused on their bills and expenses, rather than focus on the capital crimes of politicians and corporations,I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $338k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?

[@waltzwalter]

Find stocks with yields that exceed the market and stocks that, at the very least, follow the long-term market trend. However, you should get guidance from a financial advisor if you want to create a successful long-term plan.

[@geraldt331]

Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt, as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you. Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year, My $400k portfoIio is down by approximately 20 %, any recommendations to scale up my ROI before retirement will be highly appreciated.

[@Tonyham198]

It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advsor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.

[@andersonedward787]

Right, I've been in constant touch with a fiinancial-analyst since covid . You know these days it's really easy to buy into trending stock`s, but the task is determining when to buy or sell . My advisorr decides entry and exit commands on my portfoliio, I've accrued over $300k from an initially stagnant reserve of $150K.

[@codeblue11]

that's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you.

[@andersonedward787]

.LEILA SIMOES PINTO. You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.

[@brianwhitehawker1756]

Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

[@vladimirgazizov6473]

Mr Sam Deymon is also very generous with his time. He is more than available. He will answer your questions about any chart, about the market or the course very quickly.

[@Rose-nj2zj]

I am happy with the way Mr Sam handles trade 😁

[@henryzacharywalter1052]

I am impressed with Mr Sam Deymon, you did a good job.

[@karensusan412]

The stock market rally run is over but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.

[@seanaustin7306]

@@henryzacharywalter1052 YES!! I listened to hIM on podcast Nft bubble HE is a Great speaker, full of humor and rhetorics. I so much loved SAM DEYMON presentation.

[@user-samdeymon43333]

@samdeymon43333

[@fallout560]

no offense, but the traffic analogy is the worst analogy i have ever heard

[@JerseySean666]

Agreed

[@iscratchmybutt]

i still don't understand it

[@SavageBunny1]

All you must not drive a lot.

[@jishraque]

agreed.....i came down to comments section to say the same thing and saw this

[@batmansbodyguard]

On the free way there is a lane that should be going faster. When both lanes are offering the same interests rate *cough* I mean speed of travel I might switch over to the right lane from the left. As people do this it creates an illusion that the left lane is now the slow lane. When people move from lane to lane it causes hiccups in flow. Causing traffic. These hiccups effect the economy.

[@erichkraetz2622]

With inflation currently %, my primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $240k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains, sure I'm all in on the long term game, but with my savings are lying waste to inflation and my portfolio losing gains everyday, I need a remedy asap.

[@kimyoung8414]

there are loads of ways to make a killing right now, but such high-volume near impeccable tradess can only be carried out by real-time experts.

[@alexyoung3126]

@@kimyoung8414 With the inflation, the stock isn't going to be raking in huge gains. It wouldn't be a bad time to BUY it, just don't expect big gains from it for a while. I'll buy once things start looking up in all those trouble areas..until then, too much turbulence for me.

[@joesphcu8975]

@@alexyoung3126 I see any market condition as an opportunity. So far I've made north of $260k in raw profits from just Q3 of 2022 under the guidance of my Financial-Advisor "Ingrid Cecilia Raad ". Am I selling? Absolutely not. I have purchased growth stocks too a little at a time over the past few weeks. I am going to sit back and observe how this all plays out.

[@stephaniestella213]

@@joesphcu8975 Please can you leave the info of your investment analyst here? I overheard someone talking about how a couple made $200k during this red season. I need such luck lol

[@joesphcu8975]

@@stephaniestella213 just look her up online to get in touch with her, her details are provided online.

[@ivankagel9949]

This, in my opinion, just serves to highlight the necessity for an edge among investors, as simply playing the market like everyone else is insufficient. What do you think? I've been a little hesitant about investing in the present market, but I also think it's the perfect moment to start.

[@Natalieneptune469]

The concept of using spreadsheets has always seemed incredibly time-consuming and superfluous to me. Each month, I simply deposit a large sum of money into my savings accounts, retain my spending money in an other account, and make an effort to spend as little money as possible.

[@Robertgriffinne]

I don't have a full-time job; instead, I'm self-employed with a variety of sources of income. Regardless of how much money I generate each month, I maintain the same budget and adhere to my means-tested lifestyle.

[@PhilipMurray251]

The markets are currently in full frenzied mode. The greatest time to observe them, learn more about them, and take advantage of opportunities to strike is now. My mentor, Kate Elizabeth Amdall, taught me this. She has witnessed numerous market cycles over the past few decades and has an intuitive sense of how they move, why they move, and what will happen next

[@ivankagel9949]

please how can i find the lady you mentioned'?

[@PhilipMurray251]

Most likely, you can find her basic information online; you are welcome to do further study.

[@Alejandracamacho357]

Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125,000 ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.

[@tradekings5433]

Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.

[@ladymariangray]

@@tradekings5433 Yes, I have been in touch with a CFP ever since the outbreak. Today, investing in hot stocks is quite easy; the difficult part is deciding when to buy and sell. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my adviser chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.

[@emilybrown2719]

@@ladymariangray my 401k growth has been stagnant since the 2019. I wouldn't mind consulting the advisor who guides you, I really want to grow my retirement fund since I could retire in 3 years.

[@ladymariangray]

@@emilybrown2719 The stock market is without a doubt the awkward teenager with the most extreme mood swings! I started out with a commentator named “Susan Agnes Hancok.” Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control over my position, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI.

[@emilybrown2719]

@@ladymariangray Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials. I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.

[@anish.d]

Heisenberg uncertainity principle is for subatomic particles.. You can't just.. Huh nvm

[@vengefulavenger1510]

Ikr

[@kinpatu]

Anish Dubey Commentators in financial shows are morons. What he’s alluding to isn’t even the HUP. It’s the Observer Effect.

[@miniena7774]

White Brad Bad Don’t capitalize after a colon.

[@MashZ]

For electrons to be specific

[@miniena7774]

White Brad Bad Still erroneous. Do better.

[@turkeybowlwinkle4440]

"This time it's different" - famous last words

[@mhjunky4278]

lol every gawdamn time

[@ylstorage7085]

yah, it is indeed different, it is worse

[@naveenbattula]

yeah it's like a million times worse

[@videosforcatsanddogs214]

Yeah, but the yield curve had nothing to do with covid.

[@availablehage]

Everytime

[@mcginnnavraj4201]

Recession has been a norm for the past years now. Though ETF's are falling and bond yields are rising, but expositions still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing yield-rates until inflation and Recession is under control. I'm still at crossroads with deciding if to liquidate my $650k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear booth?

[@tampabayrodeo2474]

Focus on two key objectives. First, stay protected by learning when to sell stocks to cut losses and capture profits. Second, prepare to profit when the market turns around.I recommend you seek the guidance a broker or financial advisor.

[@trazzpalmer3199]

sure the idea of a coach might sound generic or controversial to a few, but a new study found that demand for portfolio-coaches sky-rocketed by over 41.8% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter, I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch, I've raised over $500k from an initially stagnant reserve of $140K all within 14months

[@graceocean8323]

@@trazzpalmer3199 The ETF emporium is a crucial step to becoming financially free and with guidance, but it will only give you good returns if your guide understands how the booth works. Do you mind letting me get to know your advisor if you really believe he/she is competent

[@trazzpalmer3199]

@@graceocean8323 The advisor I use is actually quite known, you might have come across her before, “JOHANNA MUSSCHE” she's been featured on several articles, you can search her name

[@graceocean8323]

Looked up her name and her website popped up immediately, interesting stuff so far, about to book a session with her.

[@swayamarora5745]

I had a good understanding of the yield curve, then I watched this traffic analogy and now I am all confused about it.

[@tsp8855]

Think of the speed of the cars and the speed of the trucks as the demand for the short term and long term bonds, respectively. normally, cars travel faster than trucks (because trucks are larger and harder to drive); this is also true for bonds: normally, short term bonds have lower yields vs long term bonds. If the FED thinks the speed for the cars (i.e., demand for the short term bonds) are too high, they may raise rates, leading to decrease in demand for short term bonds and therefore lowerting short term bonds' yields. When the cars are slowed down, the difference in their speed relative to the trucks' also decrease. The now decreased differerence in speed represents a tightened spread between the two bond types' yields.

[@clintonfernandes5945]

@@tsp8855 why would nobody want short term bonds when rates are rising? That makes no sense

[@melaniedavies5577]

@@tsp8855 Is there a typo in your statement? ''....they may raise rates, leading to decrease in demand for short term bonds and therefore lowering short term bonds' yields'' lower demand in bond means lower prices therefore higher yield

[@jeremy0158]

@@tsp8855 sorry but your explanation is even more confused. Fed used to raise rates in expansion phase (or overheating economy) to cool things down. If there is a high demand for your treasuries, you won’t raise rates to pay investors even more from lending out. Raising rates increase the attractiveness of your debt leading to a higher demand.

[@andybaldman]

Just add a yield sign.

[@marianparker7502]

The QE(s) in the early days hasn’t result in hyperinflation because it was focus on bonds and assets purchase which benefit companies more than individuals. This grow companies cash reserves and helps apple, google, Amazon joined the trillion dollars club. It will be interesting to see how fed is going to reduce their balance sheet with these companies without hurting the working class.

[@Robertgriffinne]

That proves Rick’s hypothesis that nobody can catch the bottom and the top precisely. Winning is secondary for me. Calculating a positive expected value, the Certainty Equivalence and avoiding chance of ruin are more important

[@wiebeplatt4749]

Does anyone remember learning about share croppers who had to buy the farm supplies from the country store, which was owned by the landowners. If the crop was good and it looked like the share cropper might get out of debt, suddenly prices jumped for seed and fertilizer. Guess what, if a recession effects you, you are the share cropper.

[@instinctively_awesome8283]

Recessions are where millionaires are created. I feel for the older generation, but if you are young or middle age, you should do everything possible to double and triple your investments.

[@PhilipMurray251]

First, you should know that almost all truly successful people use Wealth Managers, not just some. It's not a question of intelligence, it's truly an issue of time and complexity. I'll recommend you employ one for proper guidance the likes of "Stephanie Priscilla Bonillo" who is experienced and does the job well . Look her up!

[@jesbensommichael8397]

Been watching, listening, and paying attention to all of predictions and forecasts since early Covid. He hasn't disappointed yet 👌

[@georgerobinson2021]

Well said! I am also here to learn how to invest after listening to a lady on tv talk about the importance of investing and how she made 7 figures in 3 months, somehow the video taught me nothing and left me even more confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas on how to invest for retirement

[@jesbensommichael8397]

@@georgerobinson2021 lookup MARTHA ALONSO HARA , this is her name online, she's the real investment prodigy since the crash and has helped me recover my loses

[@georgerobinson2021]

@@jesbensommichael8397 Despite the economic crisis and the rate of unemployment now is the best time to invest

[@jesbensommichael8397]

@@georgerobinson2021 Investment now will be wise but the truth is investing on your own will be high risk. I think it will be best to get a professional👌

[@georgerobinson2021]

@@jesbensommichael8397 Thank you, Going through her profile on her webpage out of curiosity, and surprisingly she seems proficient. I appreciate this.

[@xres74]

All hail the yield curve, even predicted pandemic.

[@bradmitchell7182]

Wow, it’s like it’s self creating the recession... sounds like our economy is all about perception of reality

[@pstwr]

who benefited the most from the release of the pandemic? wild bats? the rich? bankers?

[@organizedchaos4559]

@@bradmitchell7182 I mean this is with stocks too, people look for patterns but unintentionally push that behavior onto the stock which makes it more likely to follow through.

[@BobLeeSwagger8264]

Predicted what's to come yet

[@Rnankn]

That’s not evidence in it’s favour. Since the economy doesn’t cause public health, you make the yield curve sound like voodoo.

[@taissiobrito]

"This time its gonna be different" - 03/09/20 circuit breaker

[@chrisginoc]

Everytime its different, isnt it?? LoL

[@rre-group7521]

They were correct brito

[@Blitcliffe]

Smaller, speculative stocks have endured a historically weak stretch. Investors are betting that a turnaround is finally in the works. I’ve lost about $320k within a few months, how do i take advantage of the market turnaround?

[@kurttSchuster]

Well the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals

[@eastwood224]

Yes true, I have been in touch with a financial advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.

[@tonicruger]

@@eastwood224 I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?

[@eastwood224]

There are a lot of independent advisors you might look into. But i work with Nicole Desiree Simon and I have been working together for nearly four years, and she is excellent. You could proceed with her if she satisfies your discretion. I endorse her

[@tonicruger]

@@eastwood224 Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.

[@MistaOwNaGe121]

Every recession has been preceded by a yield curve inversion, but not every yield curve inversion has been succeeded by a recession.

[@KusogeMan]

thank you, somebody is sane.

[@worksmarter6418]

Yield curve inversion for minimum of two months predicts with 100% accuracy and recessions predict inverted yield curve for at least 2 months around 1 year prior with 100% accuracy.

[@niceshot4563]

WOKE

[@christiantretter4605]

You're forgetting to mention that more than 75% of the time the yield curve inverts for more than a few months, there is a recession prior. I think stimulus is the only thing delaying it from getting worse. Sure it may not be right 100% of the time, but is right at a rate much higher than the majority.

[@DrIsaacSun]

Feds manipulated everything

[@CasparOgden]

With all of the current events, what is the best approach to profit from the present market? I'm still debating diversifying my $400k stock portfolio to obtain some profits while minimizing risk.

[@NormanGhali]

With the help of an investment advisor, I was able to diversify my $550K portfolio across multiple markets, and in just a few months, I was able to earn over $950K in net profit from high dividend yielding stocks, ETFs, and bonds

[@AddilynTuffin]

Pls who is this coach that guides you? I’m in dire need of one

[@NormanGhali]

A good FA is critical for portf0lio diversification. My advisor is *Sharon Louise Count* who can be found readily and has great understanding of the financial markets.

[@RickWatson-xu6gw]

Found her webpage by looking up her name online. She seems very proficient, scheduled a call.

[@judynewsom1902]

Thanks for the lead

[@SpottedSharks]

Yield curves have correctly predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.

[@andybaldman]

Copypasted comment.

[@andybaldman]

@KingInTheNorth I know, but we weren't talking about your mom

[@smam741]

Ok American bot

[@dominicharlan1521]

I think Michel Burrey has the same track record lol

[@truecanuck97]

7:46 The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle is a scientific principle of physics stating that one can measure either the instantaneous position or the instantaneous velocity of an object (like an electron or photon), but not both simultaneously. He's alluding more another concept in particle physics known as the observer effect.

[@JonybeCC]

It's the position and the momentum sir, although photons don't have mass, they do have momentum therefore, it's not only the velocity. But yes, other than that you're right!

[@paulauchon5455]

@@JonybeCC Technically, electrons have an apparent mass because they react to gravity (high intensity though to be measured) So their velocity is proportional to their momentum.

[@JonybeCC]

@@paulauchon5455 Yes you are right, electrons do have mass, but at no instance did I mention electrons, only photons! :) And even though the uncertainty principle works for both electrons and photons, it is not correct to talk about velocity. But you are correct, the velocity is proportional to the momentum!

[@paulauchon5455]

@@JonybeCC Sorry yeah, I did mean photons! E^2 = (mc^2)^2+ (pc)^2 but mc2 -> 0 (null real mass) then E = pc where p is momentum and c is the sol. with that you can find the apparent mass (am) with p = am*V. Then am*V = h*f (h : plank const and f : frenquency) then am = h*f/V = h*f/c. For very intense gravity the frequency of the photon will change (in its reference frame) therefore it is like the photon have a masse. But maybe i'm mistaken.

[@dr.lyleevans6915]

Beep Bop Your correct! I apologize. I know better than that; in hindsight I’m not sure what I was thinking lol. I’ll delete my comment

[@LeoDeki]

Economists and forecasters are the only ones who can be wrong and still keep a job.

[@bobblybob4351]

@Harry Corley ummmmm

[@markmotarker]

Well, forecasters are like journalists or any source of media. Their job is to generate buzz, nit be right.

[@superbros1690]

Those are the best jobs lol

[@Gandalf17]

its a meme job. like being a priest or monk studying the bible or witchcraft. selling and buying, u cannot make a science out that. printing money, loans, interests its all a joke.

[@ThePsychicProject]

give up how tf can a job be a meme

[@veramonique1724]

Investing in the stock market is the best option to make a passive income. Virtually all the markets are crazy, most people pay more attention to the shiniest position on the graph, I'm keeping a diversified portfolio.

[@danieljamal3709]

Investing in stock is a good idea, a good trading system would put you through many days of success.

[@devdaniel3225]

Exactly, the trick is to diversify your investment, don't panic when everyone else is, and invest consistently.

[@veramonique1724]

This is the worst possible time in history to invest as so many don't back up their stock assets. More emphasis should be put on day trading as it is less affected by the unpredictable nature of the market. I have been trading with *PRISCILLA DIANE AIVAZIAN* insights and signals.

[@veramonique1724]

@@dannyvera8475 Lookup with her name on the web, and you will find everything you need to know about her service.

[@radioactivemeta3321]

bot crap

[@anthonywalker6168]

What recession? We aren’t allowed to have those anymore. Assets must maintain their value at all costs

[@shashwatgrover1]

Money printer go brrrrr

[@coolbath8313]

Zero is also a value.. Negatives? Definitely a value 🙃

[@Discovery_and_Change]

0:01 Traders often look at the bond market for clues on how the U.S. economy will perform 0:28 The Yield Curve is a graph showing the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates of U.S. Treasury Notes 0:34 Usually the short-term rate is lower than the long-term rate 0:37 You are essentially lending money to the Federal government when you buy a Treasury Note 0:43 Your risk is bigger the longer you let them borrow money, so you'd want a higher interest rate for longer term T-notes 0:54 If the two rates (short and long term) get closer to matching, that's a "flattening curve" 1:00 If long-term rates drop lower than short-term, that's an "inverted curve" 1:04 Stock market investors get concerned about inverted curves 1:55 Yield inversions have preceded every U.S. recession since 1969 (the past 50 years) 3:26 Some people focus on the difference between 3-month and 10-year yields, while others compare 2-year to 10-year 4:20 When the Fed raises rates, it slows down the economy 4:24 The short-term interest rate is more closely tied to the Federal Funds rate and is tied to short-run performance of the economy 5:37 Quick inversions that last less than a month don't count as predictive of recessions 5:52 But even brief inversions hurt the stock markets (because people worry and sell) 6:14 A lot of stock trading is computerized/programmed now (so that an inversion will cause the computers to sell) 7:47 Heisenberg uncertainty principle: something that's being closely observed will act differently than when not being observed 8:26 Fed balance sheet (concept to know) 9:09 When the yield un-inverts or steepens again, people/investors become more optimistic 9:30 But history shows recessions still happen even after yields un-invert

[@JetAngkasa76]

thank you !

[@Discovery_and_Change]

@@JetAngkasa76 You're welcome. Have a wonderful day 🌞

[@Discovery_and_Change]

@@JetAngkasa76 You're welcome 🙂

[@146348]

*I think CNBC should look up the definition of “analogy” and how they’re used. Because that traffic analogy has to be the worst of any I’ve ever heard.*

[@blubaylon]

@@juliansuarezrobles75 ???

[@DhruvKhoslaDK]

It is inspiring to see number of people who caught the Heisenberg's uncertainty error. Yet, no one at CNBC did. Or maybe they put it in there specifically to increase viewer engagment, knowing we would comment about it 🤔

[@SinkLikeStone]

Dead on

[@dalesaylors9251]

Yeah CNBC is losing viewers

[@danielschmider5069]

well that didnt work because I stopped the video right there

[@thedeveloper2513]

Who's watching this in 2022 while waiting for a Recession?

[@t.b.3511]

Anyone who ignored the YIELD CURVE in December.. now crying.. It is the most powerful indicator..

[@themaestro9527]

Amazing how a line can predict our lives

[@nautical1078]

Well, there's stuff behind the line, it's not pure magic. It's just a decent indicator of investor confidence.

[@themaestro9527]

@@nautical1078 Again, amazing how a line can predict our lives

[@rre-group7521]

They got it bang on again. We are now in a recession again almost a year after the inversion

[@andybaldman]

Not quite.

[@whatsapp4947]

Why are most person being dodgy about how they made money in 2020? We all know what's been buzzing for months now, so why the dribbles.

[@gennywilly2933]

Trust me anyone watching this right now is in search for innovation that will change the way we work, and only the new age dream traders are willing to share and not dribble.

[@jackie-gp3xl]

Do you trade? Because some of these dream traders are like ghosts, really good but almost unreachable.

[@dannyarthur8020]

Got buddies at the office the other day saying "if you have your savings in Bitcoin your going to be in trouble when the central governments outlaw it....I guess i would be better suited in gold and US treasuries.

[@gennywilly2933]

@@jackie-gp3xl Of course, most of these guys are obviously running a decentralized system with new tech, they're only willing to talk to who is ready, I know a guy tho.

[@gennywilly2933]

(Consultant.eltonstephens1)(a)../// G////(ma:::il!!!) . c"(o)"m"....'') /...!!!

[@mexicanovega]

I'm all for it; would love to buy a house! I've been waiting for this to happen!

[@hisokamorow8388]

Manny Vega exactly, I’m 26 years old and live in Los Angeles with a lot of money saved up. I’ve always wanted to tell people that I own a home in El Segundo.

[@SilverFan21k]

Manny Vega maybe patience indeed pays off!

[@MajinMist603]

Manny Vega this is not some recession in the past that you can take advantage of anymore , we are near a depression if anything ( i honestly believe we have one more recession until a collapse happens) kzbin.info/www/bejne/haaylKF9dttnpdE kzbin.info/www/bejne/mWa4e2ytiZ12bs0 kzbin.info/www/bejne/fXKni2dsi72gqrc kzbin.info/www/bejne/l5WVmYhqgL51npI kzbin.info/www/bejne/rHzFYWSOgbWFbac

[@hellothere-us7iw]

The things when economy crashes= bank crashes. The money you saved up will be gone.

[@angelgjr1999]

Helpfully the dollar doesn’t crash itself and become worthless. Inflation is a b.

[@garycottreau8442]

There are other indicators to watch: keep an eye on large shipping lines and rail traffic since they are early indicators of goods slowing down.

[@vgernyc]

I've also read RV trailers shipments are an oddly good predictor of recessions

[@raybod1775]

Cost of shipping by container and international trade also excellent predictors. Maybe we can add the amount of Treasury bonds the Federal Reserve buys.

[@astrandofhair2856]

aged like fine wine

[@katie_worshipsbbc4145]

He's right you know

[@natsuyume_ai]

I love Economics and Management. It makes how the world function so much sense.

[@egirI]

夏夢アイ me too

[@tunim4354]

People who didn't study economics can never really understand how the world works, and how some economics models predict so many things.

[@autohmae]

@@tunim4354 Economics is NOT a science. We don't know which thesis is actually makes sense which doesn't. It's fun to talk about, but let's not fool ourselves.

[@KA-yw7hr]

as an economist, you would be surprised how nothing makes sense the deeper you get into it

[@doubleaa658]

The word economics is based on fiat currency and one it will collapse very fast and very hard

[@allenscenery]

I can't help laughing when he says "Heisenberg uncertainty principle"

[@s0uthp4w68]

This time last year people in the know we're actually doing stories about how the yield curve was on its way to inverting. A year later cnbc finally gets around to covering the story. way to go cnbc.

[@Fonsoknows33]

Who are this people in the know. I want to know with them....

[@s0uthp4w68]

@@Fonsoknows33 Keiser Report -- Max Keiser

[@imouhaha9968]

I was wondering something just to make sure I understood the explanation : the inverted yield curve is not an event which objectively explains the reasons for a recession that is to come but is more of an indicator of investor's pessimism as to the future state of the market and their will of locking out the higher yields of long-term bonds which eventually drives their yield down as their price increase with demand?

[@onepiece666]

Mostly correct

[@katisop5991]

btw is this the one you get by bootstrapping? ive gone so far down the arb tangent ive forgotten the basics from JC Hull, or was it Reilly & Brown.

[@caleb7799]

Great reporting and writing, brother! Keep it up!

[@Friskojack_]

Who else sees these Bloomberg ads and thinks he is wasting his money 😂😂😂

[@BigRed2]

$30 million he spent on ads is like you buying a news paper and somebody saying you wasted your money

[@animerocks2468]

The sad thing is that his ads have been working....

[@etxsports5836]

@@animerocks2468 update, the ads didn't work, and he's supporting Biden

[@andrewtoland1933]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the Dunning-Kruger effect has more explanatory power than the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in this situation

[@fawadpopal99]

June 18, 2022 and here we are. Right at the beginning of a possibly gigantic recession. This proofs the fact that how solid of an indicator is the yield curve. Even the predicted timeframe is accurate.

[@samiaint8043]

The Federal Reserve has increased it's REPO program to 3 trillion per day. If the REPO program was not being used the world would be in recession now. The Federal Reserve is acting as lender of last resort to the world. The Federal Reserve is buying 60 billion per month of US debt, and has lowered interest rates. That is QE . The measures the Federal Reserve Bank has instituted is a warning signal that the economy is not as strong as people believe. Stock Market analyst evaluate stock prices on interest rates and not performance. Housing is based on interest rates and not affordability. Wages have not gone up to match housing prices. Fact housing is more overvalued than what led up to the housing crash. There is a lot of smoke and mirrors in the real economy.

[@autohmae]

Yep

[@artcraven8313]

good points

[@BFaluup]

As a professional driver the traffic analogy made sense to me...I am thinking the covid 19 is going to be the car accident blocking all lanes.

[@pyrocryptic29]

I think people are buying 10 year bonds and then actualy claiming them when time is up thus droping the intrest rate forcing the banks to have to increase thier loan percentages and thus closing on multiple businesses that cant keep up

[@fturla]

The inversion of the yield demanded for government debt only indicates that a recession will come because it's the build up of the wave of economic activity that initiates a recession. It doesn't matter what businesses or governments do prior to the beginning of the start of a recession. All of that positioning before a recession will not stop the recession.

[@user-fx8wq5ib3z]

I did a mistakes many times, but after your videos I really start to understand how it works

[@andrewwee8450]

"What yield curve?" - covid19

[@armandahishakiye482]

I thought the uncertainty principle was that you can't know the position AND velocity of a particle??? 😫 these are the people running our economy

[@aroundandround]

A yield curve inversion just means the market expects interest rates to go down in the next few years, so there isn’t a fundamental reason why there should be a recession within the next 18 months as is often cited. A soft landing can change that expectation.

[@freetrade2financialfreedom407]

Great video 👌🏼

[@Brownyman]

Hayek: "Blame low interest rates." Keynes: "Nah, it's the animal spirits."

[@sang3Eta]

Hayek vs Keynes rap m.kzbin.info/www/bejne/mmHRdoWKe9Rgic0

[@ryanexx5250]

How did it know coronavirus was coming?!

[@namewithheldforprivacy7107]

because it was created in a lab

[@thanos2399]

Interest rates 🙄

[@TheDavidLiou]

It fulfils itself. The virus acts as a trigger and everyone overreacts.

[@worksmarter6418]

Because a recession was coming regardless and covid either catalyzed it or was also factually the shortest recession in history and the real one is still scheduled to come merely delayed by the fed having lowered interest in response to covid, which is now creating the bubble.

[@letsmakegadgets6899]

@@namewithheldforprivacy7107Evidence?

[@bestmoments4287]

As a newbie, that explanation helped me.

[@merp1998]

7:47 don’t try to be something you’re not 😂 Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle tells you that you can’t always measure everything all at once. What he’s referring to is the observer effect.

[@VarunGupta45]

Come March 2020: ' We are in the recession':IMF

[@BadassBikerOwns]

Every single day I hear that the next recession is coming soon, since 2008.

[@andyalmeida8356]

Hang in there... it's coming.

[@NowIknowCh]

Far L wow, you are something aren’t you

[@jamesleon4883]

eventually they will be right but the whole western economy is on a cliff edge, this will be something called the great collapse in the future.

[@aharonaryeh4049]

Far L Lol, no he won’t. Recessions are inevitable. We’re experiencing a longer than usual bull market (e.g. market expansion).

[@angelgjr1999]

Far L Very funny my guy. Trump is the most unpopular president in history, sleep Joe is predicted to beat him by a lot.

[@TheTechieSab]

Does anyone have link s to any websites, forums where I can see the realtime yeild curve?

[@lingling21100]

This is one of the best indicators right now.

[@dangiscongrataway2365]

Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that you cannot know both the speed and location of a subatomic particle, only one of them. Has nothing to do with stocks or economics.

[@April-rj8lf]

Like a drug sniffing dog. When it alerts... Somebody is in trouble. Hide your assets. And just be glad when its somebody else.

[@turkishsmurf]

They Know i buy when others hide lol

[@susangore7571]

My husband and I are VERY worried about our future, gas and food prices rising daily. We’ve had our savings dwindle with the cost of living into the stratosphere, we are finding it impossible to replace them. We can get by, but we can’t seem to get ahead. My condolences to anyone retiring in this crisis, 40years nonstop just for a corrupt system to take all you worked for.

[@andybaldman]

Susan you are gorgeous.

[@interpol9871]

It's deflationary era, negative rates are coming across the globe, even in emerging economies

[@udayrathod3786]

Which emerging economies has negative rates? Just curious

[@therealnoodles7638]

negative rates are stupid and miss the point. They will never work. And also none of the emerging economies have negative rates, pretty dumb for them to go on negative rate mode.

[@josehugoelsas8699]

@@therealnoodles7638, Brazil is very close to real negative rates (gvnt bond - inflation) for the first time in history, also real negative interest rates have happened more than you would imagine: all advanced economies ran negative real rates after WW2 and it was a major component in dealing with the post-war debt. Today consumer inflation is basically on the floor if you remove asset products (i.e. housing), therefore to be able to produce real negative interest rates on a zero inflation environment you need to straight out put the interest rate into negative territory. The difference this time is that you have the nominal rate also negative, not only the real rate, but in a sense it is a replay of the 1950's.

[@jameylane9196]

A broken watch is correct twice a day as well.

[@Ethan-ob1sy]

Oh dear

[@bob___]

The yield curve inverts when short-term demand for money spikes, and that would happen when a lot of businesses are foreseeing trouble making their payments

[@pinkietoes]

100%... people still don't realize that the Treasury market also acts as a source of liquidity. The Fed continues to remove a ton of that liquidity as they buy and hoard Treauries in order to keep rates low, hence all of the reverse repo operations in order to bring Treasuries back into the market.

[@jaimekaimero2912]

Or because of present demand spike they need to rapidly expand inventory

[@stephenjones8928]

Unfortunately, even if this correlation has merit, the yield curve says nothing about the duration and depth of the respective recessions.

[@henrychiocchi452]

Regardless, It gives investors insight towards and upcoming recession, better than nothing.

[@AVOWIRENEWS]

Thành tích của CNBC nói lên khả năng của CNBC. Chậm và ổn định làm cho nó lên hàng đầu! Chúc CNBC làm tốt nhé!

[@Gilbert-gv5bp]

I’m here because Twitter just told me “Black Monday”

[@skyrobin4008]

When’s the next big hit? I’m ready to build my wealth. This will be opportunity for me.

[@hugopulido9446]

Be patient and have cash ready to invest.

[@charlitoadams777]

I've been waiting for 5 years 😔. I always hear "this year is gonna be a recession"

[@skyrobin4008]

Yes... I will be patient. Any year now.

[@evolvingemmy]

BUY BITCOIN

[@nautical1078]

@@charlitoadams777 Better to just invest regularly, dollar cost average, unless you do this full time stop trying to beat the market, just ride it and you'll be better than 50% of investors.

[@johnsamuel1999]

Nice video CNBC

[@oo-fn6gp]

8.38 what does she mean when she says fed has a large balance sheet that is exerting downward control on long term yields? what kind of balance sheet is she talking about that affects the 10 year bond market?

[@sharptongue2972]

The attempt on my life has left me scarred and deformed.

[@simplethings3730]

That has always been a good predictor of scarring and deforming.

[@JAJA-sk3wr]

@@simplethings3730 It's a pop culture reference

[@simplethings3730]

@@JAJA-sk3wr thanks. If I ever feel a need to pop a culture I'll study up😁

[@mdoerkse]

I guess we will never know now if this time would have been different.

[@PrayTellGaming]

funny how things turn out, huh

[@BDanielsOfficial]

Wouldn't have been, it was artificially high, people just needed a reason to sell.

[@santhiyag1650]

excellent presentation. Good tool for investors, especially at this time.

[@zeccy337]

The fear of a recession causes a recession. When people fear that a recession is coming, they save up money, they stop spending, and when that happens consumer expenditure drops causing a recession. The yield curve is predicts recessions because people believe it predicts recessions

[@therealnoodles7638]

well there's always a trigger point, in this case it might be trade wars. I know how markets are really sensitive to Trump's trade war announcements so maybe let's start there.

[@nicenicevid5896]

There is no need to predict cause recession will likely to come because they've designed it that way, in short they created it.

[@enyotheios2613]

As long as we keep aiming for 3+% economic growth there will be recessions every decade, for the real value to catch up with the speculation and false advertisements.

[@mariachristina97]

Gotta love the system that keeps you poor, then almost kinda financially stable for a little while, then poorer again! With a climate crisis thrown in, just to keep you on your toes. Such fun.

[@enyotheios2613]

@@mariachristina97 Great analogy for the further transfer of wealth into the hands of the few. Corporate pay has gone up 940% since 1978, while worker pay has only gone up 14%. We know the top payed people don't work 67 times harder than they did before. Hell, we know they don't work as hard as a construction crew, electrician, roofer, or plumber, whose jobs are actually vital to the continuation of our current standards. Automation isn't helping the equation, as a robot can replace a $20/hr factory worker for just $8/hr, hence the 85% of factory jobs lost since 2000 being automated away.

[@DaveHammondDublin]

Feds make the call either way - couldn't this just be another version of a self fulfilling prophesy - recessions get triggered a year later as consumer confidence take the messangin onboard and slow spending and investment which just fuels the recession.

[@camilofarkas6965]

Watching that this video was posted 2 months before the pandemic, and knowing that it just inverted yesterday its a huge temptation to try time the market and stop DCA for a bit.

[@sadhooramrup4328]

Thanks - appreciate the education

[@MrDPMan3000]

To think, all these people who said we were due for a recession in 2020 were right... just for... a different reason 😕 Questions everyone should be wondering though: Does this add or take away from the Yield Curve's predictive power? Was COVID-19's recession THE only recession we'll see OR we are still set up for a continuation of what was a potentially another recession soon?

[@horroRomantic444]

Best plan: Do the exact opposite of what finance channels like this advise to do with your investments.

[@BigRed2]

Dollar cost average is the best thing to do

[@sor3999]

Thanks, I’ll also avoid taking advice from random KZbin comments

[@Unbeatable0007]

@@sor3999 Nailed it!

[@Ef554rgcc]

Is anyone else else getting this recommended to them now? Is youtube reacting to the market?

[@andybaldman]

People are reacting to the market, and KZbin is a reflection of that.

[@lcmlcm2460]

Thanks for the explanation, I still don’t understand it completely though. As a tiny investor I ignore the hype anyway. Thanks

[@Tom-xy9gb]

The only reason recessions happens every 10 years is because people expect a recession and start saying theres gonna be a recession and people begin to believe a recession is gonna happen so they start telling everyone so on so fort. its a domino effect

[@Phantom8589]

The Astro-physist hypothetical explanation of the economy. 😅

[@goncaloveiga]

Great clip!

[@genmockify]

This is fascinating.

[@MJSTAMAND]

7 out of 7 score so far. Are you willing to bet against that record?

[@alexisaragones]

"Is it going to be a full proof indicator? Only time will tell us that." Ok, yeah, let's all wait the recession to hit even bigger than 2007/08 to make sure its a good indicator. Recession is coming big time, and it's gonna hit bigger than the previous one. Even Michael Burry - the person that started shorting subprime before it blew off - is warning about it. The question is: where to invest before recession hits.

[@raybod1775]

Seems like it.

[@KomarBrolan]

Boy, this didn’t age well, did it?

[@chrissscottt]

Contrary to the most popular comment, I think the traffic analogy is very apt although no analogy is perfect.

[@hashemjavadian9213]

your videos about trading good as always, but can you make more of them?