Interest Rates Returning To 0%, Stocks To Fall 25% As Recession Hits | David Rosenberg

David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, discusses his outlook for the economy, interest rates, and stock markets.
*This video was recorded on May 8, 2023
FOLLOW DAVID ROSENBERG
Rosenberg Research: rosenbergresearch.com
Twitter (@EconguyRosie): / econguyrosie
FOLLOW DAVID LIN:
Twitter (@davidlin_TV): / davidlin_tv
TikTok (@davidlin_TV): / davidlin_tv
Instagram (@davidlin_TV): / davidlin_tv
For business inquiries, reach me at [e-mail]
*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 - Intro
1:10 - Recession outlook
5:10 - Labor market
9:50 - Wages vs. inflation
15:37 - Equity markets outlook
19:00 - 25% decline on stocks?
22:26 - Interest rate outlook
29:40 - When will Fed pivot?
35:00 - Consumer debt
37:53 - David Rosenberg
#economy #investing #stocks

[@TheDavidLinReport]

How are you allocating your portfolio right now? Comment below and subscribe for the latest updates! FOLLOW DAVID ROSENBERG Rosenberg Research: rosenbergresearch.com Twitter (@EconguyRosie): twitter.com/EconguyRosie

[@PonziZombieKiller]

BITI, NVDS, AAPD, TSLA, DBD, and some VXX.

[@PonziZombieKiller]

Oh and have physical Silver.

[@briangranger1741]

18:42 "you're being paid to be in cash at 5%" plz explain this.

[@issenvan1050]

Throughout 2020-21, that clown argued that there was going to be deflation, no inflation! He advised to buy bonds! Don’t give coverage to these shameless mavens(!), David!

[@ramia5586]

All in David Lin stock, ticker TDLR like your logo on the top right😉

[@andrew.alonzo]

Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.

[@edward.abraham]

Let's face it... buying more stocks & index funds during stock market corrections and bear markets is scary. Which makes it really hard to do for most people like me. I have 260k i want to transfer into an s&s isa but its hard to bite the bullet and do it.

[@hunter-bourke21]

@@edward.abraham You need a Financial Advisor my friend so you don't get ripped off in the market. They provide personalized advice to individuals based on their risk appetite, placing them among the best of the best. There are bad ones, but some with good track records can be very good.

[@rebecca_burns14]

@@hunter-bourke21 Please tell me how to connect with an advisor, My funds are being murdered by inflation. therefore I'm looking for a more profitable investing strategy to put my portfolio

[@hunter-bourke21]

@@rebecca_burns14 It's best you do your due diligence, I have my portfolio overseen by ‘Camille Alicia Garcia’ and her qualifications speak for itself. Most likely, the internet is where to find basic info, she has a noticeable page for consulting.

[@edward.abraham]

@@hunter-bourke21 This information is valuable. I quickly searched her full name and her website appeared instantly, showcasing her impressive qualifications. Thank you for sharing.

[@arcticdoc]

David, you are a master of letting your guests elaborate. You don't interrupt. You wait, but then you come in with another gem of a question. Excellent work sir!

[@mwienzek]

Exactly! Other interviewers drive me nuts with their notorious interruptions! Well done!

[@omo0910]

Not like Ran from Crypto banter, loves the sound of his own voicev🙄😂

[@LiberatedMind1]

@@omo0910 😄

[@tatianastarcic]

Given the current market situation and the precarious state of the economy, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for a while or, alternatively, seeking guidance from a financial advisor. However, keeping a portion of your wealth in gold remains a wise choice.

[@richardhudson1243]

I have learned to not trust corporations. I was badly hit by the '08 financial crisis. Since 2019, I've just been focused on investing through a financial advisor, and it has been paying off, and I'm never going back to banks full time.

[@hoosier-daddy-wv5gi]

@@maiadazz I find your situation fascinating. Would you be willing to suggest a trusted advisor you've worked with?

[@anwensofia]

@@maiadazz Thank you for the suggestion. It was simple to discover your coach. I did my research on her before contacting her. Given her credentials, she appears to be competent.

[@geoffmcarthy7314]

Don’t say that to Dave Ramsey

[@YouTubeUpdatesAreRuiningIt]

This discussion is FANTASTIC. No gimmicks, no pretending, just economic wisdom delivered straight. Trading is an isolating occupation, as few people in the general population are well read in the various relevant topics. Discussions like this are excellent for the lone trader, as informed perspectives are very difficult to come across. Flashy, loud, young traders are huge red flags... Guys like this are the real deal.

[@ethancanin]

Yeah, right, haha.

[@janereynolds7555]

Congrats David on the quality of guests and questions asked.

[@Antonio-tl6ex]

David thank you for letting your guest speak! so many of your competitors like the sound of their own voices, great job!

[@BA-kp1us]

Outstanding content as always but particularly like this combo of Rosie and David - rational, data driven and sound! One of the best yet @David Lin !!!

[@C7SAR592]

David Lin, Congratulations on your new channel!! Thank you for your honesty and dedication!!

[@albertritchot5393]

Thank you David and David. This presentation is very informative!

[@Cobey_Smith]

David letting David to articulately elaborate on questions David gave was refreshing to see David’s opinions and David’s response to David.

[@davebrewer7170]

Great interview, value in every minute, good questions, better answers

[@johnfromojai1]

Excellent show! Thank you both!

[@francistyler372]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Mrs Maria Reyes.

[@PhilipOrlick]

I'm surprised you know her. I've been making a lot of profits investing with her for a few months now.

[@karenrobinson598]

Mrs Reyes changed my life because of the high profits I got from investing with her.

[@AlejandroRuben975]

You invest with Mrs Reyes too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@julienolke-vx5lk]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@elizabethkarvelas308]

I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much

[@costasphotiou4980]

Thanks David

[@husamabed6527]

Rosenberg is knowledgeable, thank you!

[@brainkill7034]

Great interview and excellent questions. Thank you for sharing.

[@chrismiami1332]

So on point, thanks to you both for the great content.

[@eugenefirebird8938]

Zero interest rates are the direct cause of the economic troubles of the past 20 years, along with QE, general money printing and massive government borrowing. The results: high inflation, low wages, $1 million average house prices in many areas, and stock prices 6x real historical value. All of this mean a severe drop in USA standard of living. Free money makes us all poorer. That is what we now live.

[@chiragmehta8212]

But these criminals who lowered rates don’t care.

[@TheCJUN]

Thank you David, and David.

[@MiguelCosta-ez6rh]

Another amazing interview! Thanks Davids 😊

[@chrisdillon2641]

Wonderful! He actually explained a few things that hadn't made sense to me before. And of course, I love that his analysis seems super realistic and aligns with D. Martinos general analysis and other ?? what I would call, rational critical thinkers. Thank you...awesome interviews and not just mindful but also helpful questions... Or does this phone just happen to know where I am still confused in the current maze of shifting meanings and numbers? Hmm...whatever ~ I love feeling more and more sane! Oh! Additionally, one of the best parts of this is that for me things have seemed kinda crazy for a while (non-sensicle). So basically I have been wrong a lot this last decade. So even though I love thinking maybe I am finally not going to be...it doesn't matter because A. I am used to it and B. I kind of hope I am consider the pain that seems unavoidable due to my current situation. Still...what doesn't kill us... :)

[@rifkidrsmn]

Finally I found David on air. Great David!

[@peterdenham9510]

Like your fearful thumbnails , brilliant

[@jd218]

I work at a papermill bleach board we have been taking down time on machines due to weak orders.Brown paper mills are hurting more that tells me shipping packaging is down

[@jackwalsh1468]

David squared yet, again. Kudos and Cheers, Mate.

[@jeremiahanderson1159]

David how do you always get all the best guys on your show it's amazing I love it❤❤❤

[@anthonys2818]

David, great job once again .There were some gold nuggets in this interview. Only disagreement I have with Mr. Rosenberg and it’s just my opinion. Using credit card for gas is a convenience because I don’t like to stand in line. I think most people prefer to pay and go.. ❤

[@klmn2000]

David Lin: that was an excellent interview with Rosenberg. He was spot on. I had the same thoughts on CC debt, neutral rate (which historically declines over time owing to rising total debt), employment being lagging, declining productivity and the Fed's poor forecasting ability juxtaposed against market belief in every word they utter. Jay P changes his mind on a dime, and David R just reminded many of that.

[@fubarbrandon1345]

Great guest David thank you.

[@jenny4687]

Excellent David, as usual.

[@josephedlin2172]

Great interview - good to have solid economics and no crypto bs

[@mikeaddis1494]

Great interview DL. One of your best guests.

[@CdotForbes13]

I really like your channel, so much insight from all of your guests.

[@tenplus1025]

I never factored in the “work week.” Awesome guest, David!

[@davewave36]

David, get that there Acid Capitalist interview! Love your program.

[@stephentaylor7756]

Your best guest yet. A great amongst greats. Keep it up mate.

[@brianmoreland9714]

Excellent interview……thanks David!

[@chilll973]

This channel is pure gold !

[@andrewwickham4642]

Great Interview David!! Thanks Andrew Wickham

[@joetrombatore5704]

Excellent guest with a very interesting forecast.Please have him back in July.. thanks

[@jeremiahanderson1159]

Yeah in July please we'll see where things are at then😮

[@bac3phi]

This channel is so underrated

[@Peintureairless]

Interesting guest and good questions, thank you for the show

[@KingKoin88]

Great insight from DR as always. Pepe pump follow by Recession dump

[@HectorYague]

For a bit of context, Rosemberg was calling for a deflationary cycle, not inflationary, back in 2020. As we all know, the exact oposite took place through 2021 and 2022, so he has been on the wrong side of history for years... There is ZERO chance that the Fed will go back to the infamous near zero interest rate policy in the next 12 to 24 months because it would bring inflation back to full speed instantly.

[@chiragmehta8212]

Hope you are right.

[@James-il3tq]

Bond market yield curve strongly disagrees with you. Massively inverted yield curve indicating Fed will be cutting rates by this summer and rapidly at that. With banks failing left and right and consumers + governments past their eyeballs in debt high interest rates can't last. Don't forget with massive government debt to GDP ratios they want and need to inflate away the debt to more sustainable levels.

[@HectorYague]

@@James-il3tq you gotta remember what are the Fed's actual mandates as dictated by congress: stable prices (aka low inflation) and solid employment (aka low unemployment). The Fed's mandate is not to save stressed (and mismanaged) regional banks or the govt's debt-to-GDP ratio, and the 2-vs-10yr curve has been inverted for almost a year already yet the Fed keeps raising. For as long as unemployment remains at historic lows and inflation remains stubbornly sticky, the Fed has no incentive to drop rates. I am in the "higher for longer" camp.

[@dfc803]

You are correct. Rosenberg was wrong in 2020 and will be wrong from now up to 2024. Inflation will be sticky.

[@omrit2]

​@@HectorYagueit doesn't matter what the official two mandates are. The Fed has private owners with their private financial interests, and is also heavily influenced by political pressure from whatever reigning administration. So there are additional mandates, such as bailing banks, supporting markets and avoiding recessions in election years.

[@financialm3771]

Good guest

[@harminderlakhanpal7720]

Mr Lin you have outdone yourself. Rose is amazing, we need more of him. Thanks for this one!!!

[@neagcatalin1116]

A podcast full of wisdom!

[@lavague7648]

Excellent analysis. Love debunking narratives based on facts. Many congratulations.

[@geotom2023]

Another great speaker ! Thankyu david

[@bergy1897]

Thank you, awesome talk🤗

[@bfrances2354]

Enjoyed this discussion

[@nickkacures2304]

Thanks for having David Rosenberg on he has always been a stable voice of reason . Could you please have an expert with a positive outlook on renewable energy on we really need to hear a possible solution for the climate that has an explanation of how the economy will respond to a reliance on renewable energy my pick would be Tony Seba he is a Stanford professor with a strong understanding of economics

[@drmodestoesq]

Speaking of being a historian at heart, Warren Buffet was not the first person to make that observation about history. “History teaches us that man learns nothing from history.” - Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel

[@popijustpopi6149]

For years I thought it was Otto von Bismarck, who did say it, but was simply repeating Hegel. I appreciate you setting me straight that it was a generation before Bismarck.👍

[@Casey-qm1nd]

Great job

[@myutube8x]

Mr. Lin -- beautiful job with the gentle, brilliant and amazing Mr. Rosenberg!

[@darrenb1117]

Excellent interview. Some great insights.

[@eh7599]

Fantastic guest!

[@nocturnal1970]

😅

[@mmoly-cj4bd]

Good show. Very nice.

[@Abemtric]

Great content brother!

[@ddprepper5227]

Excellent report

[@VeganTrove]

Nice guy. Good interview. Thanks

[@briangranger1741]

18:42 "you're being paid to be in cash at 5%" plz explain this.

[@tucowept]

More this guy.

[@gustavodiaz4689]

Good stuff! I listen to multiple guys and they are all saying the same thing. This guy paints a better picture on the hole situation.

[@PonziZombieKiller]

Jerome needs to do a Volcker 2.0 and raise 1% each meeting until we reach the 2% or lower inflation goal. Inflation is not back in the bottle yet. Decade of ZIRP has ruined this country.

[@eugenefirebird8938]

I wish they would do it -- that might put asset prices back to real historical values and flush the speculators down the toilet where they deserve to be.

[@jjwatt5126]

That’s the problem. We have 100X more debt, so mathematically it is impossible to raise rates as volcker did. Unfortunately Powell is drowning and the only life raft is QE which he will certainly do

[@PonziZombieKiller]

@@jjwatt5126 then somebody just ain't getting paid.

[@SuperPowderpig]

The fed will have no choice but to return to zero rates. The ponzi scheme is collapsing and can't survive without zir.

[@jjwatt5126]

@@PonziZombieKiller it ain’t the government not getting paid. It’s us buddy

[@chirsbowman8041]

Great talk, thanks, but why is he so confident that inflation will come down and more importantly: stay down?? might we see a quick and more vehement reprieve? (ppl just pumped 1.2 billion into pepe 🤯 clearly there's still lots of money on the sidelines) especially if the rate cuts are so dramatic...and will the USD take a real hit at that point?

[@trevordowney6425]

I see a book on gold on his bookshelf. Why no talk of it in this interview?

[@douglasthompson9482]

I do believe that interest rates will drop but to zero percent may be a tough one….we are seeing very difficult times. More people working at home, etc. Very different era to make any predictions.

[@eugenefirebird8938]

Only a few mostly unimportant jobs can be done from home -- paper shuffling. They will be the very first to be canned. The vast majority will not.

[@Rexmorgan687]

​@@eugenefirebird8938 the US is a service based economy though; the vast majority of jobs are paper pushers.

[@eugenefirebird8938]

@@Rexmorgan687 Not true. Most jobs have to be in person. Farmers, cops, teachers, doctors, retail, hotels, restaurants, gas stations, manufacturing, etc. The paper pushers don't produce much if anything.

[@TopOfPyramid]

Is credit card debt only the number you pay interest on? Because I use my cc’s everywhere, but I pay them off like weekly and never pay interest.

[@joannemeeks745]

I follow Dave regularly.

[@Nahyoutrippin]

That was a good question. We have a wage boom and job growth, excess savings, why is credit card debt going up, at a 24% rate? Our Fed is out of touch or planning something behind the scenes.

[@betz6507]

I don't see salaries going up in my sector (IT banking). I do consulting, rates being offered are down by average $20 per hour. It could be companies taking advantage of all the tech layoffs.

[@JohnWayne-so6ct]

I use my credit cards constantly for the rewards point only if not for that I wouldn't even bother. By the end of year I have christmas presents paid for all of my family... but the delinquency rates are really bothersome.

[@unreal513]

This guy was great, please have him back on again!

[@fluffhead917]

David = one of the best interviewers of all time..🍺

[@tsiwt]

Can you ask next time about 20 year bond that go up when they lower interest rates .

[@samfish6938]

Higher interest rates have not only put a squeeze on loans in the banking industry. They are now threatening small to mid-sized companies across the manufacturing sector, where working capital is required to conduct business.As banks put the squeeze on lending, small manufacturing firms could be on the chopping block. These firms are always resource-starved and need working capital to continue production. "Under the current economic conditions, you’d better be a tiered supplier with plenty of cash, or the banks will likely tell you no when you need them."Last month, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate again, moving it up by a quarter of a point to a range of 5% to 5.25%, its highest mark since 2007 and the 10th consecutive rate increase."With interest rates, leasing and purchase prices essentially doubling the last few years, the current economic situation is not favorable for starting a business, much less trying to grow one," Ada Wallace, president of Piedmont Warehousing & Manufacturing Support, warned.

[@GEOPOLITICALANALYSIS]

Never in history have we bottomed prior to a recession. Thanks David!

[@Ps119]

Rates will go to zero as soon as pigs fly

[@eugenefirebird8938]

If they do that, inflation will go off the charts.

[@dard683]

great guest well done

[@JohnAnderson-wc2fw]

Fantastic interview. Thanks guys👍

[@reinhard7572]

This is a heck of a guest! congrats David and David.

[@jtrealfunny]

I'm 20 minutes in, this guy has stuff to say. The old veterans are so measured and precise in their speech because they've learned it the hard way. This guy and someone like Gundlach couldn't be more different in how they come across but in how they use their words and construct their thoughts, it's really similar. 20:19 On current investing environment: "If you don't have a recession view, buy the market. I have a recession view for 2 reasons, first interest rates matter, and they operate with a lag and I don't think the business cycle has been repealed." I know that doesn't add up but I think the rates and the lag are the reasons and then the business cycle is just a core belief, not a reason. Rates matter and there's a lag. So beautiful in its simplicity. Take it from the man. 22:20 Quotes Buffet, "the one thing we learn from history is that people do not learn from history." Says, as a historian, that quote has touched him deeply. Great stuff. 26:40 ALERT His Opinion on Powell Guidance - he explains in detail why fed guidance is unreliable, wrong 2/3 of the time, and that the FOMC is fighting with the internal fed economists about what to do.

[@jazzbeau507]

inflation seems very high and unrelenting. Maybe David Rosenberg is right about the future, though sure does not feel like it now.

[@kasperwabinski]

If your down 50% on some stocks would you hold or sell? 50k in total investment ?

[@glenbert1396]

Investors can’t predict the future, bearish periods automatically give way for a new set of stocks to buy and watch while setting the stage for a new profitable uptrend. I have come across articles of people that grossed profits up to $250k during this crash, what are the best stocks to put on a watch list or buy at the moment?

[@svengrot7943]

@@stanleyedwin6947 Considering that a CFP's entire skill set is built around going long and short at the same time, both employing profit-oriented strategy, coupled with the exclusive analysis, it's quite impossible not to outperform, the uncertainties that come along with the current market are yet another reason I have them make my daily investment decisions. has since generated a ROI of over $550k.

[@baileymclean8186]

@@svengrot7943 Make lot of sense, good for you though, unlike us, you seem to have the market figured out. How were you able to make such sum?

[@svengrot7943]

@@baileymclean8186 No doubt, the stock market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings! I began with a pundit by name "LISA ELLEN SHAW". Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my position and fees are very reasonable in comparison with my ROI.

[@baileymclean8186]

@@svengrot7943 I searched her up online and checked out her credentials since I was so intrigued. Top-notch! I emailed her to inquire about accepting new clients.

[@michaelalpine4198]

Great guest!

[@Bart77666]

Thank you David. Very knowledgeable Guest.

[@raphaelkoster6099]

Lin report..makes more sense than his competitors

[@vm-bz1cd]

A "Tale of two cities"! Global Liquidity is rising and the wealthy are spending money like drunken sailors while the lower middle class is taking on credit card debt at 24% interest to pay for food 😞

[@jamescrowe3669]

David is a smart guy! History repeats itself most especially when people don't learn from it!

[@mechannel7046]

How long has David Rosenberg been predicting a huge market crash? The market just keeps going up, defying his prediction

[@eugenefirebird8938]

They aren't going up. And they are 6x real historical value right now.

[@davideberlenghini8949]

I like that maaan!!! 😊 Coz I'm a pro Cook intrested in economy and he is a pro Economist intrested in food😊

[@samfish6938]

Little progress has been made in curbing too high inflation, Fed's Jefferson saysFederal Reserve governor Philip Jefferson said Friday that inflation remains too high and there has been “little progress” made toward bringing it down to the central bank’s 2% target, a pessimistic assessment given signs in a report earlier this week that price increases might be slowing. Jefferson, who was nominated by President Joe Biden earlier Friday to the position of Fed vice chair, also said in a speech at the Hoover Institution in California that the turmoil in the U.S. financial system following the failure of three large banks will likely have only a limited impact on the economy. Jefferson’s potential elevation to the No. 2 spot on the Fed’s seven-member board would give him greater influence over interest rate policy and make him a close colleague of Chair Jerome Powell.While inflation has declined from its June peak by about 2.75 percentage points to 4.2% in March, compared with a year ago, Jefferson said that “nearly all” of the decline stemmed from falling energy and food prices. “The bad news is that there has been little progress on core inflation,” he said. Core prices exclude the volatile food and energy categories and are considered to be a better measure of underlying inflation. Jefferson also cited a closely watched metric often cited by Powell, which tracks the prices of services, from medical care to dining out, while excluding energy and housing costs. That measure “has not shown much sign of slowing,” Jefferson said. a report Wednesday that showed inflation ticked down slightly in April, though remained high. Compared with a year ago, consumer prices rose 4.9%, down from a 5% yearly increase the previous month - lowest year-over-year increase in two years. But that index - the consumer price index - has fallen further than the Fed’s preferred measure, which will be updated May 26. One of Jefferson’s fellow Fed governors, Michelle Bowman, spoke earlier Friday in Europe and also expressed disappointment with the progress made toward taming inflation so far. She hinted that she might support another rate hike at the June meeting.

[@johnlennon232]

All these bank crisis and recession are all the signs of 2008 market crash 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the US dollar or is it okay to move all emergency and savings to precious metals?.

[@ai_robozen]

Solid guest

[@siferd18]

Good info and i think hes 100% spot on.

[@nocturnal1970]

Never heard so much BS

[@figureitoutpunk]

This guy just said FED doesn't have to go back to QE when the government had to step in to save depositors from failing banks and blew all FDIC funds plus more... hundreds of billions. That's equivalent to QE, don't listen to this guy it will be "different" this time, once interest rates are cut, the dollar will get hit hard for several years.

[@siferd18]

Your head must be in the sand.

[@bensr2858]

First off, the federal reserve needs to have this guy as a special advisor /chief of staff for their economists. He makes so much sense on the definite expectation of recession as a crucial part of the business cycle. People always seem to order that Powell is NOT an economist..... he's a wall street guy who's worth north of $50million , so he doesn't understand anything that doesn't have to do with THE MARKET. Example: " inflation is only TRANSITORY" 😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@Elif-ez6ip]

Can I get multiple entries for VELR90 or only one?

[@tgwtom]

Alex Gurevich also a zirp guy. Hope to see him here.