Raoul Pal & David Rosenberg: The Two-Year Recession

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A Real Vision favorite returns, as Raoul welcomes back David Rosenberg to follow up on their conversation from late 2021.
Raoul and Dave talk about where we are now, including an update on Dave’s recession call, what he thinks about inflation, and how the Federal Reserve will react. Raoul also gets Dave’s view on what markets will do and whether he agrees with Raoul’s “buy bonds, wear diamonds” call.
As ever, a conversation between Raoul and Dave is a must-watch, even if their views don’t match your own. These are difficult times, and we need to account for all possible scenarios. Recorded on July 28th, 2022.
Thanks for watching Real Vision Finance!
TIMESTAMPS
00:01:04 We Are in the Early Stages of a 2-Year Recession
00:09:59 We're in a Recession but the Fed is Tightening Policy!
00:16:36 Recoveries Start More Than a Year After the Last Rate Hike
00:25:49 Let's Pitch In and Buy the Fed a Bloomberg Terminal
00:32:35 Inflation is Going to Come Down Materially in the Next Year
00:49:51 Bonds are the Standout Trade
00:55:00 We are Locked Into a Six-Quarter Recession
#raoulpal #bonds #recession
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#Macro #finance #macroeconomy #markets #financialmarkets #bonds #stocks #oil #gas #commodities #equities #gold
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[@RealVisionFinance]

RV Essential: 59% OFF for $99/year 👉 It’s more affordable than a craft beer a month! 🍻 rvtv.io/3BDEzwr TIMESTAMPS 00:01:04 We Are in the Early Stages of a 2-Year Recession 00:09:59 We're in a Recession but the Fed is Tightening Policy! 00:16:36 Recoveries Start More Than a Year After the Last Rate Hike 00:25:49 Let's Pitch In and Buy the Fed a Bloomberg Terminal 00:32:35 Inflation is Going to Come Down Materially in the Next Year 00:49:51 Bonds are the Standout Trade 00:55:00 We are Locked Into a Six-Quarter Recession

[@anthothiyahisrael422]

What hasn't been said is how much destruction has be done in America infrastructure.

[@systemonachip]

If you put these timestamps in the descrition, they will actually appear on timeline/seekbar. ;)

[@systemonachip]

And timestamps should start at 00:00 as "Intro" for example if you want them to appear on timeline

[@dimitrimiro5203]

⁰π

[@edeisen6832]

I8uuî

[@tobias3383]

Raoul was calling for a 10K ETH be DEC 2022 and said the FED would pivot to QE by Sept... and a strong market rally into the end of the year. If your a perma bull, Raoul is your guy, if you aren't a perma bull then Raoul rhetoric might be difficult to swallow.

[@42dunbar]

He needs zero rates for his QQQ and crypto trades to work. He admitted last week his buy bonds, wear diamonds call isn’t working out yet (yields keep rising.)

[@alexinhomarroquin1836]

I hope he’s wrong so I can accumulate next year

[@GenXstacker]

True, but Rosenberg has been calling for deflation since 2020 and been dead wrong.

[@Peter-MH]

Anyone out to make money as a pundit on KZbin isn’t generally someone who’s smashing it in the markets! That said, I think Rauol speaks a lot of sense. Nobody can be right all the time.

[@santylestari7457]

A lot of people thought that then. He’s not the only one. Calling him a perma bull is silly. Nobody is right all the time.

[@muaddib7685]

"First shooting war in 80 years in Europe." Where was this guy in the 90s?

[@mimir5782]

And 2000s

[@TheCJUN]

@@mimir5782 2000s? Balkan war in the 90s.

[@marcind4644]

@@TheCJUN Georgia, Kosovo

[@TheCJUN]

@@marcind4644 Georgia isn't in Europe.

[@marcind4644]

@@TheCJUNgeographically it’s on intersection of Europe and Asia , culture is more Europan though and they don’t consider themselves as Asian. Same with Cyprus, technically in Asia and close to Middle East, but no Asian identity and tied to Europe and in EU

[@kaka22lol]

2 bond bulls talking their book. Not sure who got more stuff wrong in the last years than Rosenberg. He's up there with Cramer for sure.

[@yogathan1]

Okay crapto bull!

[@kaka22lol]

@@yogathan1 I don't own any crypto atm. Nice try tho

[@yogathan1]

@@kaka22lol don't worry you will buy it again soon enough. We always need new bag holders.

[@boboften9952]

@@yogathan1 Food , Water , Shelter , Oxygen is the ultimate Yours has to be wanted . These are needed Play again ?

[@Robertgriffinne]

Very well articulated; I wish I had more time for trial and error, but I'll be 56 in October and I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, especially with the looming inflation and recession; my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $500k at the age of 60.

[@Natalieneptune469]

Right there with you. I'm retiring early, no debt. Kids are taken care of. Building my dream home on 11 acres, looking over the river valley. there are loads of ways to make a killing right now, but such high-volume near impeccable tradess can only be carried out by real-time experts.

[@Patriciacraig599]

@@Natalieneptune469 Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?

[@waynehornsby3796]

May I make 2 suggestions. I heard 2 things in December that changed everything for us. 1) Don’t fight the FED 2) Interest Rates are at ALL TIME LOWS. I did some research and found 2 ways to profit from the Rate Increases. 1) TMV is a 3x Inverted Bond ETF 2) 10YR Bond Micro Treasuries We are up just over 90% since February 1st. If I was more mature in investing, could have been so much more

[@adrianbardan782]

put a few hundred bucks in shiba coin and terra classic. if they ever burn some zeros, enjoy the ride up.

[@joeshmoe7317]

$NOPE

[@antongalamba9296]

Amazing interview. The pop-up explanation notes are super helpful.

[@nicklasgustafsson9940]

This is perfect stuff! would it be possible to get a transcript?

[@shawn576]

Always great to hear from David Rosenberg. He says a lot of genuinely interesting stuff that puts a lot of things in context. Hopefully we hear more from him as this recession worsens. My opinions can change wildly from week to week as new data is available, and I'm sure his opinions change to. We want to hear those new opinions as they develop.

[@KyleChasseCrypto]

Loved this! Great discussions and really elaborately discussed some of the most important factors the world is facing right now.

[@eb3Variety]

Great knowledgeable guest with eye opening info. Thank you Raul

[@argates1]

one of the best interviews I have seen in a long time, both brilliant men

[@issenvan1050]

No inflation, buy bonds!

[@Ivelin]

First shooting war in Europe in 80 years (at 53:17)? Yugoslavia -> Serbia, Croatia war of the 90's was not in Europe?

[@ticker3132]

Excellent discussion fellas. Thank you.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@yoiyomismo]

Great show with a great guest. I love this analysis videos.

[@Concojone5]

David Rosenberg's solid argumentation just blows me away.

[@tomcat8662]

This was recorded July 28? What was the holdup getting it released?

[@MohrAvaMohr]

brilliant guest, so much in depth expertise! please bring him on more often

[@DiegoGarcia-ip7pr]

Love this guy. Smart and entertaining.

[@DeNzELMaPp]

Remember when Raoul was calling for a 34k Ethereum by Q2 2022. That was fun.

[@shawnarold194]

Great discussion with Mr. Rosenberg!

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@systemonachip]

13:00 NOT TRUE, GFC ended not because FED cut interest rates but because finally in spring of 2009 they gave up on the "mark-to-market" rule for collateral.

[@clarkkee7457]

Thank you for this interview

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@andyw_uk74]

I largely agree with David's analysis: short-term inflation due to high demand, high labour costs and supply-side pressures, long-term deflation due to demographic-based consumer decline. Big recession for a few years in the meantime. Long-term we're looking at a zero-growth or even negative-growth world. Of course, there are always potential black swan events to factor in.

[@davee8462]

Short term inflation due to high demand??... printing trillions of fiat funny money and throwing it out into the economy not even party to blame? come on man use your head 😂

[@parkerbohnn]

Long term worldwide hyperinflation is where we're heading. This is all planned out by the power that be.

[@hathwayh3209]

@@davee8462 which increases demand you melon.

[@TroyWilkinson978]

Enjoyed the interview, but there are a few points I believe that you are missing. Energy is driving some of the inflation in all sectors and has many major hurdles over the next couple of years. Just in the US alone a lot of infrastructure will be required to guarantee energy security and corresponding lower prices. In the case of oil, the US no longer has energy independents and is increasingly relying on a fractured and deglobalizing world for supply. In the case of base load energy, the drive for renewables is putting states further behind the infrastructure curve. Base load support for renewables has to come from somewhere and nuclear is the lowest carbon, most reliable option, yet policy in many states, such as California, is distancing itself further away from nuclear. This leads to the major issues with Federal policy on Coal and increasingly gas that make it extremely unlikely that new fossil fuels plants will be built. So where will the energy come from?? If you can't run your air conditioner, then you certainly can't charge up you EV. Oil will go back above $120, coal is $465 per ton today on the Newcastle benchmark and forward contracts out to June next year are going up every couple of days, (currently June 23 is $358 but will end up over $400) Solving energy doesn't happen as quick as flicking a light switch, so energy inflation will be sticky. The other issue you touched on briefly was onshoring or near shoring. The likely scenario being out of China, into Mexico. That will have the effect of higher wages and a growing middle class in Mexico which will lead to a little more of that inflation that we started exporting 40 years ago to come home. I'm not sure that inflation has peaked, predominately due to a growing energy crisis, but if it has, it still won't just disappear within a 2-year window. And maybe we need to tell Joe to stop squandering the strategic reserve while we are at it, just sayin. And on bonds. What happens to the perceived bond rally when countries like China are net sellers? And predominately for strategic reasons? No one wants to be the next victim of reserve freezes and SWIFT expulsion. China isn't the only one.

[@07Mihai07]

One of your best interviews! Thank you very much!

[@rohitjayasheel]

Nice interview. Thankyou Raoul and David

[@RichardSKLim]

We need a Great Recession to bring sanity back to global economic order.

[@parkerbohnn]

What we need is double digit interest rates forever.😁

[@christopherstewart9874]

The last one didn't. No reason to think this one would either.

[@RichardSKLim]

@@christopherstewart9874 The Fed kicked the can down the road, but it got much bigger!

[@carstenflorager4810]

What is best for JP Morgan / Black rock XRP being compared to the fed .A security , Note , Bond , Currency?

[@TheAgTeam]

Always interesting and educational. Great to hear such learned minds

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks Nick!

[@vivik972]

This is very interesting and great learning content for me 😀 Thank you !

[@sirt8684]

David always talks facts, figures and common sense.. He makes an interesting point about government stimulus drying up post mid-terms. It will be an interesting exercise in (forced) fiscal policy management... i.e. will a reduction in government support slow or reduce inflation... A lesson perhaps in electorate bribes coming up. Personally, I think oil will determine the outcome of the (inflation) argument though.

[@paluszter]

Looking at the futures retail positioning the consensus is more like 100 year recession..

[@yiyoguerra]

GREAT interview… but WHEN to buy the bonds? Now? When the FED begins cutting rates?

[@onedrop7967]

I am seeing this one month later. Still a good listen.

[@lance_jasperson]

printer which u got

[@charlesg7937]

The most critical factor of all on the length and severity of the recession (depression) is the massive debt load of all governments worldwide plus huge yearly deficits (+ high personal and corporate debt loads, this will lead the world into very long depression and the very possibility a larger war. I listened through to the end and am a bit shocked that these critical topics were not a large part of the conversation. (We are headed into a recession, then depression, then followed by war's -plural-).

[@frederickmatthews4259]

Interesting view. I'm concerned about the same. What would you say to the view that says governments will simply print more and/or cancel debts, just kicking the can down the road. China over 200% debt to GDP, and US "only" half that......as Keynes said, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent'...A Plaza Accord type deal could also help with the debt crisis....

[@briandbeaudin9166]

@@frederickmatthews4259 well, you can also 'inflate' government debt away. Just saying...

[@charlesg7937]

@@frederickmatthews4259 You are correct; governments will continue to kick the can, but that only works for new government deficits going forward; it's the existing debt payments to current bond holders that cannot be covered up by new money creation that will cause the recession to linger into a prolonged depression. (The Federal Reserve and other central banks are upside down on the bonds that they have purchased; they are actually totally bankrupt now). It is the existing 330 trillion+ of debts (worldwide) that is a 10-ton weight dragging our nearly lifeless bodies (the entire world economy) down to the bottom of the sea. As the world economy slows, defaults on existing bonds will crush economic growth for years to come. Even if the bonds could be rolled over, higher rates would be demanded by bond buyers and that will remove liquidity and further fracture the existing economic system. (Sorry to say it, but we are headed into a decade of very rough times).

[@DougSmileyVirgo]

Brilliant discussion. Fascinating interview.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@parkerbohnn]

INterest rates are near 5,000 year lows. What tightening?

[@sandymilne224]

Add to what Dave’s saying, supply side metrics aren’t going to get any better during a global on-shoring happening. Also, household debt from the recession will rise again and take time to cycle through the system before spending returns in earnest.

[@todd1701]

What if we default on those bonds?

[@Puzekat2]

What do you call it when you are in labor force wage increases have not escalated 30 years?

[@dankrohn9339]

I covered most of lly around 305, but looking interesting to reshort.

[@gossumx]

That Jim Cramer impression was spot on.

[@mattanderson6672]

Thanks so much!

[@wrincht1]

David's a brilliant, funny guy. Thanks for the interview.

[@annhannon8792]

Interesting dialogue and quite educational thanks

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@RadicallyFRUGAL]

QUESTION: is it possible that 1) the mass of total debt (debt to gdp (total & federal)) 2) the federal fiscal condition and 3) the weakness of household disposable income have distorted the economic-financial continuum to such an unprecedented extent that historical comparisons of interest rate/recession-expansion dynamics are not as predictive as they used to be? Doug W

[@michaels4255]

Debt reduces the recovery and expansion dynamics, but does not ameliorate recessions.

[@RadicallyFRUGAL]

@@michaels4255 thank you

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@zpettigrew]

Don't know if the market will ever "turn around" unless there is mass investment in fiscal/infrastructure spending. Money spent to increase manufacturing bases, and reinforce new/more reliable supply chains. Supply side inflation doesn't care about interest rates.

[@issenvan1050]

That dude said there was going to be no inflation & suggested us to buy bonds. Very bright economist!

[@manus100]

An exceptional conversation.

[@Sobek88]

Is this the original video?

[@RealVisionFinance]

Yes!

[@michael3697]

Great interview

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@nicholasalderman773]

Why do their videos come out so long after recording...

[@DaveDemayClips]

Fantastic interview as usual.

[@eugenecharkov3547]

Bravo David! Amazing,no bias analysis.

[@parkerbohnn]

David is denser than lead!😁

[@tropicalbreeze7508]

Thank you Raoul, take care till next time

[@MrRAGERMAN1]

Raoul , how about discussing the advantages of settling offshore away from US..? As a Corp or personal, trust…??? And XRP Potential..! Thank you!

[@mcitron3534]

Excellent interview!

[@ashg3250]

Thanks

[@SiLoMixMaster]

Basically what Dave was saying here is that we all need to long Luna 100x immediately

[@EduardoGonzalez-nk7wo]

Excellent Interview!

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@traveler8880]

Can you address the impact of the rising dollar in your next conversation pls.

[@anthonyyoung6489]

Im just listening to this so I’m glad that Louis CK has diversified his skills to economics and comedy. This is the man we need right now. Louis CK. Not this imposter.

[@danschmeidler9795]

wow that's great to hear the great one speak

[@donniemoder1466]

Bottom line, what will happen to stocks and bonds during this 2 year recession? Did I miss something? What should I buy? I guess they say buy treasuries or 10 yr treasury and short the stock market?

[@thereisnospoon6281]

Very informative. Thanks!

[@RealVisionFinance]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@dianay6691]

Rosie's such a comic, love it!

[@georgesiew2758]

The oldest nations are Japan and Germany. China has roughly the same demographics as the US. Look it up on Wikipedia. Median age; Japan = 47, Germany = 47, USA = 38, China = 37. Total fertility rate; Japan = 1.4, Germany = 1.6, China = 1.7, US = 1.8. Just because a bunch of idiots start talking about China is going to collapse because of demographics doesn't mean it is true. A simple internet research of actual demographic statistics will show that.

[@wildlife9582]

Raoul, the idea of deflation is completely counter to Peter zeihan idea of inflation completely not going away due to deglobalization and demography, can you dive into that topic at some point

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@relative_vie]

The beauty on this call it allows VCs and hedge funds stack up and stay on top.

[@parkerbohnn]

The last time I took David Rosenberg's advice I ended up at Money Mart trying to borrow money after David Rosenberg's advice wiped me out.🙃

[@Zebra663]

Oh! Too bad

[@mikebeats3281]

What are the rules when the markets across the board have been artificially inflated since 1998??

[@marvel_1914]

great idea to prevent economic Christ, and I agree.... With this content, we can be aware and move quickly to prevent something from happening in the future. thanks

[@trentnorris8412]

yield curve inversion was 2019 not 2018

[@simondavies1129]

Great conversation

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@growproteas1148]

disagree with recession call - only one state is in contraction - Wyoming - hard to be in a recession - also unemployment has not risen yet - curve just inverted - recession usually starts 6 to 18 months later. recession won't start until the 2/10 yield curve rises back above 0.5

[@RichardSKLim]

Mr Rosenberg, recession or no recession, the Fed has to bring soaring inflation rate down first to save the economy.

[@bobbymcdingdong]

David Rosenberg: "If you are going to be bullish on the economy you need the Fed to cut rates" which contradicts what he said a minute before "Interest rates lead economic growth"

[@overarch888]

Brilliant discussion 👏

[@2emptywords]

But he was just saying last Thursday the FED will pivot and it will be milled!

[@michaelgoodrich5309]

This interview is a month old

[@simrans3675]

@@michaelgoodrich5309 Doesnt change the fact on 2 completely diff. POVs in a month's time? How is that a long term outlook on investing.

[@michaelgoodrich5309]

@@simrans3675 providing different views. It’s up to you, not him, what to do with your money. Everything is just probabilities

[@simrans3675]

@@michaelgoodrich5309 Ofcourse it's u pto me to make my own decision. That's not what we are discussing here, tbh. We are merely pointing out conflicting views from the same person with a span on 1 month for a long term outlook - erodes trust in what they say.

[@marcind4644]

@@michaelgoodrich5309 Yeah, but pivoting every two weeks on long term outlook doesn't look like his outlook was solid in the first place.

[@sandrag5022]

informative discussion blokes - very interesting

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@THORMENTAZO]

financial wisdom, thanks

[@Link15269]

I like this guy. He keeps it real.

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@andybarnett5279]

I'm a crypto investor...but it's hard not to realize that all these guys are really talking about is endentured servitude of human beings at their benefit

[@onestopfunstop317]

You're leaving out the best Recession buster of all time... WAR !!! Watch them start more regional never ending conflicts

[@georgesiew2758]

These guys need to caveat their discussion about inflation VS deflation to make clear that they are talking about the short term. Raising interest rates lowers inflation but only in the short term. In the long run the effect of productivity growth dominates over the effect of demand fluctuations. Hence raising interest rates will lower inflation in the short run by trashing demand but it will do so at the price of raising inflation in the long run by also trashing investment. Also as for the effect of demographics. This is a factor that takes a long time to manifest in the economy. However over such long periods the effect of the compounding of productivity growth is the much more important factor. So it is mistaken to put so much weight on demographic trends and to think that it will be the dominant factor in determines long run inflation or economic growth.

[@protoeuro7637]

Why does the guest have peace in his eyes and you have utter angst ? i trust this man under interview. The soul reveals all....

[@dude3678]

Thanks dude. I think the low for crypto is literally anywhere in this range of 2022 from a 5 to 7-year perspective. BTC ETH ADA MATIC ALGO ATOM.... These prices will be laughable in a few years.

[@ocavant]

You forgot QNT, HBAR, CSPR, XRP, XLM

[@jonathansmith7270]

Raoul I have watched so much about the market’s I love it that you were from the Uk originally I’ve been in crypto for some time lol !what I think about the elite people you talk to is that they don’t understand the new generation of who is now coming for the crypto/tec market ! A bit like ordering a cab a few years back ! And like myself then seeing every young person with an Uber app ! This should put all the old thinking to bed ! We just need to wake the rest off the population to get to understand ! With a brief understanding of the future which is very difficult! That needs to be everybody s priority and explaining the risks! But coming from someone probably from the only way is Essex! Lol but that is the reality! All the best jon

[@stevejones371]

The supply chain issue seems to be getting worse. My girlfriend works in a pharmacy and she tells me that many prescriptions are starting to become hard to get in stock.

[@d000dez]

This was forecasted at least a year ago. A lot of the inputs for pharmaceuticals can only be sourced from China.

[@r64g]

@@d000dez And the Pentagon says China would invade Taiwan within 2 years.

[@d000dez]

@@r64g no they don't. It's a possibility at best. It's really unlikely to happen.

[@parkerbohnn]

This is great news the more inflaiton the better!

[@ghelgi]

I like these 2 guys. They're way smarter than me. I'm just not sure why they trust the Fed this time. The fed pivoted in 2018 after saying they wouldn't, they raised rates after saying they're not thinking about thinking about raising rates, they said they wouldn't raise 0.75%, then a month later raise to exactly that. They said inflation was transitory and they've made dozens of other empty promises during Powells time. Why is this time different?

[@zzhughesd]

Could be shallow. Won’t be short. Didn’t I hear this RV last week

[@tsiwt]

Commodities are going higher during the winter and next 7 months there is more demand for food oil and energy than there are resources available

[@clarkkee7457]

Somebody isn't looking out the windows

[@joan3891]

Seems a practical forecast to me.

[@onehitko9810]

finally something that makes sense. ❤

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@tbmg4050]

There is so much chaos around the globe, the US stock market will continue to be a bastion of safety for investors. We may see the Market come down and retest the lows, but this market has huge upside potential.

[@michaelgoodrich5309]

Keep chugging that kool-aid! China in fiscal crisis, Europe energy crisis/war, US political season dumpster fire with an earnings decline on top….. and you want me to believe the S&P500 is the safe haven play. Psst… that’s what the 10yr treasury is for. That is literally what Rosenberg’s call is.

[@rof8200]

Nobody knows what's going to happen. No one can see the future. Something unexpected always happens

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!

[@tmcunlimited]

we are in unchartered territory and yes its complex. Controlled demolition across the financial grid will be the only answer to "fix" this mess. Hold tight as its going to get bumpy !

[@yawzerdoink-a-sore-as8159]

On point, 2024

[@RealVisionFinance]

Thanks for watching!