Stocks Will ‘Melt-Up’ 70% This Year Before Global Deflationary Bust - David Hunter

David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist of Contrarian Macro Investors, predicts a market melt-up this year before an 80% crash during what he describes will be the worst financial crisis in history that will lead to a global deflationary bust.
*This video was recorded on May 18, 2023
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0:00 - Intro
1:00 - Contrarian investing
2:45 - Stock market outlook
4:10 - Deflationary bust
7:30 - Worst financial crisis in history
20:22 - Declining standard of living
30:48 - The end of the supercycle
35:14 - Inflation hedges
38:00 - David Hunter
#stocks #investing #economy

[@anthonystorey8970]

S&P 6000-7000?! This dude makes Tom Lee look like a permabear

[@PonziZombieKiller]

LoL. I didn't think that was possible... but yes I concur... wow

[@TrungNguyen-vi2um]

He’s probably mistaken the S&P with gold😂

[@glowwurm9365]

@@TrungNguyen-vi2um I think he’s talking about the Nasdaq hitting 7000

[@centurione6489]

I think he needs to go easy on those magic 🍄🍄🍄

[@MBarberfan4life]

Hunter is a massive 🤡

[@glowwurm9365]

I respect you for allowing a variety of guests on your show, this one was highly amusing…

[@valuetainer3437]

he got it right crazy melt up with no fundamental basis happening

[@theresagarcia1218]

The stock market is still a fantastic tool for building wealth, however, so it's wise to consider investing even if you don't have much money to spare.

[@stellamoore720]

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[@mayacho4910]

@@stellamoore720 Hello, what signal do you invest with ? I'm new here.

[@stellamoore720]

@@mayacho4910 I would recommend 'BRIDGET MARY TUROW" for you.

[@mayacho4910]

@@stellamoore720 I'll like to connect with her. I want to invest my savings.

[@stellamoore720]

@@mayacho4910look with her name online for her page.

[@jeffreymarley6877]

I am so glad you're back David, your prep, guests and questions are still on point.

[@TheDavidLinReport]

How do you think the stock markets will perform this year? Comment below and subscribe! FOLLOW DAVID HUNTER: Twitter (@DaveHcontrarian): twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian

[@eduardomaldonado1647]

Markets already crashed . Dollar got devalued about 50% since pandemic while markets tumbled about 20-30%. In real purchasing power most stocks already took a hit about 60% so I don’t think across board stocks gonna drop much more. The biggest risk is layoffs that are coming if liquidity becomes a problem. The government will just print more dollars and lower interest rates followed by more inflation and stocks crypto will rise. I don’t expect fed to start to lower rates till end of 2023. Remember the fed owed 32 trillion dollars and keeping rates high makes it more expensive to keep financing the interest rates on that debt. Government has no choice but print more money. Future forecast much more printing of money. Crypto will rise 2024 substantially.

[@camvanzin]

Hey David, your doing a great job. Keep it up. Appreciate and enjoy your interviews.

[@youngkim3000]

Excellent analysis for contrarians!

[@jayjones7776]

I agree with him you guys are crazy. Everything is priced in fiat paper debt currency. It will go to its intrinsic value which is Zero. Being bullish on US equities is being bullish on the dollars. It all comes down to what you think the dollar will do long term. Don’t forget those inverted yield curves.

[@kjay1856]

Perfect timing. Thank you!

[@myutube8x]

Most excellent interview David Lin and David Hunter. Really appreciate you both.

[@christinajan8763]

Love your show and interview ❤

[@karinascharenberg3367]

great interview... your questions to David Hunter were excellent...

[@randyturner8466]

Great presentation. I believe David 100%. If you think about it, why would the Federal Reserve who also has a trading desk, spike interest rates over the last year the way they have done, on purpose, because they know that at some point they will then have to ease rates, which will ultimately cause a stock market Melt up like David implies. This is not financial, just advice. Appreciate it

[@valuetainer3437]

The federal reserve has a trading desk 😂? What??!! Lmaoo😂😂, we really live in a clown world, they're not supposed to be engaged in that ever

[@user-ci9wu4rh9s]

Great Interview David, enjoyed listening to David Hunter's views. Take a look at any graph that shows non-commercial net short positioning against S&P and the theme is clear - at times of extreme short positioning, the S&P goes UP - until the shorts are carried out on stretchers :)

[@liamporter1137]

Great discussion and sharing. Thanks.

[@StockGenius152]

Look at how the markets have behaved the past few years, this prediction is crazy enough it might come true.

[@fubarbrandon1345]

Thanks both Davids...interesting interview.

[@olmeg96]

I find David very candid and knowledgeable. Right or wrong he's very informative when people give him the chance to talk and explain his rationale. Thanks David.

[@HC-sb1ru]

I think he makes too many assumptions. As DL says at the end "right for the wrong reasons"

[@dantran1]

Very good information; Thanks

[@andrewnmontemayor]

If we hit 6000 to 7000 we will have full blown hyperinflation and the end of the dollar

[@jobob47]

von mises called it 70 years ago the crack up boom. the inflation driven blow off top and then the crash into the pits of hell.

[@mattsenica5227]

I agree, the only way we see this what he is predicting is if the fed prints their way out of it and in turns hyper inflates the currency away. The fed is screwed

[@Bigchuckers]

lol, everyone's narrative has to include the end of the Dollar.

[@jzhng250]

Is this man smoking drugs 😅

[@silverbullag4759]

No we won,t thats nonsense

[@MichaelHayesagent]

So its going to go straight vertical up , doubling its value , during a recession while the fed keeps rates high trying to keep inflation down with no QE ? No, just no. Where's the money going to come from sir to double the markets if globally they are tightening? Why would the fed come in if the market essentially doubles ?

[@glowwurm9365]

Obviously it’s nonsense, to double it would need a money printer akin to 2020 and it needs to do all of this In 4 months… 🤦🏻‍♂️

[@LarsLarsen77]

@@AMP98765 He says in this video that he was calling for a melt up in 2020 and the melt up happened. He's calling for another one: a final blowoff to the market.

[@MichaelHayesagent]

@@LarsLarsen77 The melt up in 2020 was due to the fed QE and M2 essentially doubling. Where is the next doubling of incoming wealth going to come from ? If the fed is tightening and the rates are staying high all while there is an impending recession where is the blow off top going to originate? I think we already had it, in 2020. Its all depending on the Fed and the Fed simply isnt printing anymore money or lowering rates.

[@Ronin_marine]

From what I’ve been told the fed is actually injecting money just not the usual way

[@utpharmboy2006]

i think the directions he is talking sound reasonable just maybe not the magnitude. should be interesting.

[@andrewmarsden1970]

Just cannot see that with high inflation, rising interest rates and things beginning to break as a result. S&P to 3,300 by the end of the year is my guess.

[@LiberatedMind1]

I'd guess even lower than that.

[@digitalsamurai42]

Yet the market is still going up

[@LiberatedMind1]

@@digitalsamurai42 Like it was in August. Its called a bear market rally Gabe.

[@Phila80]

​​@@digitalsamurai42 Real economy is collapsing. Stock market has no reflection on the real economy. Problem is the markets are not traded on fair market value. It is all based on the Fed and debt. Easy money and low rates. We have reached to debt saturatiin point. Can't print anymore without having hyperinflation. Ya, you will see stocks and real estate go up but inflation will eat those gains away and a hyperinflationary depression begins. You don't want that scenario.

[@andrewmarsden1970]

Update my comment, Mr Hunter looks spot with his predictions so far.

[@riyadhbaksh2415]

Excellent interview 👏🏼

[@ivandias349]

I don’t know why these guys’ opinions get entertained on these finance platforms. The data doesn’t support this guys opinion and just calling yourself a contrarian is straight garbage.

[@Daniel-rv8ef]

How do we have 20-25% inflation by end of decade but housing doesn't see the 2021 numbers for decades? That doesn't make sense to me.

[@bennoT7920]

How can housing remain at these levels if interest rates are at 15%? If his forecast is correct, house prices are coming down both in the bust, and later in the decade when inflation soars.

[@Daniel-rv8ef]

@@bennoT7920 Housing prices went through the roof when CPI was 9+%. If CPI goes to 20-25% like he projects, then the dollar will be very weak and average home price will be $800k+. No way we get fed funds rate or mortgage rates in the double digits considering the current debt and leverage. Nor the government or the consumer can afford that. The dollar will decline and inflation will go through the roof, along with nominal prices of all assets.

[@bennoT7920]

@@Daniel-rv8ef time will tell.

[@silverbullag4759]

Fact

[@silverbullag4759]

Houseing is the principal driver of Inflation,peroid

[@Moshe_Dayan44]

Unfortunately, David Hunter said essentially the same thing in April of 2020. It didn't happen. I do agree there must be a point of no return for the debt, but when you have the world's reserve currency, and there are more US dollars in circulation outside the United States than inside the US, and there is an ever-increasing demand for dollars, creating a US dollar squeeze, it becomes much more complicated to calculate where that point is.

[@mmorphy4258]

thats what im saying, I think the trigger for the deflation will be the dethroning of the USD as world reserve. CBDC incoming

[@citizengkar7824]

Can you name one financial analyst who has always gotten if right, in either direction: bull ot bear? I'm hoping he's wrong. But there IS something really systemically broken. I've seen it in my Country: New Zealand, as well. Just imagine if the Chinese decided to hand back their US$. What would that do?

[@Robyn-Hood]

Thank you very very much for this video 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

[@postscript123]

Very good interview.

[@GEOPOLITICALANALYSIS]

David you're such a joy! He's brilliant

[@andrewvaughn3690]

Interesting opinion by DH, good interview and information!

[@rafalsabat5408]

“ watch and learn “ 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@markf4968]

Current market trends suggest he may be on something. Good interview David.

[@2dgamemania]

really interesting and makes sense.

[@davecalico3273]

GreaT Interview Dave !!! 🧨

[@akesha4138]

If we do not have any new indicators by the end of July I am writing this "melt-up" prediction off, we are down to the last few months that it can possibly begin to happen as cycle crashes (late fall and winter) begin to overwhelm/overtake this unusual probability. The current probability of him being correct is currently 61% and steady. Will re-evaluate in 6 weeks time.The coming crash is far more certain, over 80% probability and rising. This can be described as a debt/derivative/leveraged crisis where the only option left is default.

[@27gaeden14]

I am long sqqq because I think the current bull cycle is insane. We have to tank soon so many indicators are said to be worse than 2008. I think the debt deal and its Tbill fallout and any possible credit downgrades will be the catalyst that starts the slide.

[@valuetainer3437]

he didn't say a crash wont occur, he said equities will melt up and THEN the crash will ensue, watch your words, and he was right, they did melt up, right now US30 and nasdaq rising like crazy, directional move in the long run of course there'll be a crash

[@akesha4138]

Do not write to me ever again@@valuetainer3437

[@davidhunter5062]

@@valuetainer3437”…and he was right, they did melt up…”. A melt up is a parabolic move upward, we’ve had a slow, normal move up (selling off and reversing rapidly, to be sure) since David’s prediction in May. A 70% melt up from last year’s close-which is what he specifically predicted-would put the S&P at 6300+ by the year’s end. He’s got 4 trading days left for that to happen. We are now at a mere 4757….so, barring a miracle, 1) he was not right, and 2) we have not had a melt up. He might still get it right…but like the past few years he will not be right on the timing.

[@dt5656]

Thanks for having David Hunter on!!! Love your show and approach to interviews

[@alexf9426]

Great interview

[@anuragkujur1057]

Great Stuff.

[@kswiss702stacker7]

To be fair hunter has been calling for a melt up for a few years now….just keeps moving the goal post

[@LarsLarsen77]

He called for one in 2020, and now he's calling for another one. There's no rule that that can't happen back to back.

[@LiberatedMind1]

@@LarsLarsen77 Point is he is just guessing wildly out of his ass, instead of using actual fundamentals. The unbroken rule so far has been that recessions cause markets to tank.

[@Bigchuckers]

@@LiberatedMind1 OK, so where's the recession?

[@jorge1170xyz]

@@Bigchuckers Go ask anyone in Elkhart Indiana (where they build all the RVs).

[@cm-uy6ec]

Excellant diversification of ideas on this channel. From Harry to David Hunter we go up 70% then down 80% - keep these guests coming!!!!

[@dogegamer3288]

We have people calling for huge meltups to ATH and crashes 1929 style. Most likely chop sideways for years.

[@silverbullag4759]

Grinding Bear market very possible and probable

[@DaveHcontrarian]

Stability is far less likely the further and further you go into a secular bull market. There are 8 billion people on the planet, simply maintaining a stable economy for that many people is not easy and depending on the year you are living in, potentially not possible.

[@justinuwaidia5873]

I think the melt up was post covid and the crash begins following the sell in may sentiment in 2023 to produce the economic depression of 2024-25

[@woody_6666]

True after COVID melt up was stopped due to the war.

[@mmorphy4258]

didnt really go VERTICAL though

[@TheGanemi]

@@mmorphy4258 no? look at 1 week chart. Look at 1 week chart of crypto

[@silverbullag4759]

​@@woody_6666it was the Rate hikes that stalled it and the announcement of QT, The market started to price them in, yes the proxy US puppet Ukraine war had an effect but the former was the cause

[@yukisanderson6907]

Bring it on! I can't wait. 😆🙏

[@Bigchuckers]

2 stellar David's.

[@fitnesspoint2006]

33:24 he states spx will be 6000 to 7000 by end of this summer, when it does not he will move the goal post, he was calling for 6K in Jan 2022.

[@Bigchuckers]

You can't honestly expect them to hit exact months. If the number stays consistent, 1 out of 2 is all you can expect.

[@silverbullag4759]

Was calling for it in summer of 2020, Again end of 2020,Q1 2021 summer of 21 etc etc etc

[@richardsutcliffe98]

Enjoyed, thanks

[@hametly254]

Thanks as always david. Congratulations on your new show. Proud of you bro!

[@sebastianburnaz6760]

Thank you!

[@thomashume6497]

That was an excellent interview David Lin. I really appreciate it when you bring on the high quality guests instead of degenerates like Ran Nueur . Thanks for all you do.

[@LarsLarsen77]

Being contrarian is very profitable.... so long as you're right.

[@ahndeux]

He is probably as right as Kobe Bryant winning the championship in 2023.

[@DaveHcontrarian]

@@ahndeux Stick to betting on basket ball, the banter will be worth something there.

[@ahndeux]

@@DaveHcontrarian It would still have better odds than listening to this fool.

[@justinb222]

jeez . that’s some tough talk right there . got me thinking bout stuff 😬

[@stevenmccann2891]

Would you say we atleast have till the yrs end, to prepare?

[@davcochrane]

Brilliant analysis!!!

[@seanobrien7751]

Great hair David, but even better guest. Thanks!

[@surfermystery]

David Hunter and Henrik Zeberg are only two having this calls that maybe are a head of us,you should also do interview with Henrik also, love youre own channel 🎉

[@jw8927]

How is the market melt up if the interest rates crashing the market . What will be the catalyst ?

[@corvette72778]

The great depression was caused by the federal reserve not responding to a contraction of the money supply by 30%. For reference, the money supply is now down 6.3% since early 2022.

[@mth469]

The great depression was caused by the Federal reserve encouraging the issuance of credit to speculators. Same thing that caused 2008. Same thing since 2008 that will cause a massive crash in 2024.

[@p.c.88]

Would love to see you ask tougher questions. Your guest has been calling for an imminent melt-up for at least two years (just check his Twitter history) and you didn't challenge him on it at all!

[@ageloftv654]

I hope you are right about XRM5T? Thanks for the highly educational video. Keep up the good work -

[@dbehr4869]

David You have been saying bust up ...not down, Spring 2022. You then moved it back to Summer 2022, fall 2022 and now summer 2023. If it happens next year...are you still right?

[@noname-yh2fv]

watch and learn yea!

[@johnmay9699]

Great Depression is going to pale compared to what is coming. The crash will go into the history books to write about for a thousand years. Real estate will get wiped out.

[@ampiciline]

David , I think "Hary Dent "( your guess 2 weeks ago ) has shown us THE best view so far , mainly because of his "Demography theory" ( copied and studied from Japan economy for long time ) . Hary believes we are in a SEVERE " Deflationary period " and there is NO way we are going to have a melt up 70% ..... Even " Chris V" , yesterday said ( in your show ) we should stay in CASH & short Term TB ( Bil ETF ) ) because of very near possible of " Black swan " which is coming VERY soon ( collapse of banking system ??? ( Chris ) NEVER said anything about melt -up 70 % ??? ..... Even the Great "Gareth Solaway " ( your guess couple weeks ago ) believes we should stay in Cash and Gareth NEVER mentioned anything about melt -up 70% . ....Professor "Steve Hanke" ( the TRUE expert ) ( two day said in your show that we are going to have a VERY STRONG DXY and the solution for SEVERE inflation in Argentina , Iran or other countries PEGGED to dollars or any other very weak currency is " Dollarization " ..... Professor Hanke believes dollars is remaining very STRONG . ( DXY ) .( Deflationary period for next 7 years ) The ONLY guess that was very close to this guess ( dav Hunter ) was Mr Jason Shapiro, who was very reasonable in his view and EVEN Jason NEVER said this outlandish claim of 70 % melt -Up . I rest my case .

[@FierceFurious]

6,000-7,000 S&P by the end of this summer lol this professor certainly lives on another planet

[@GoredrinkerRS]

But but but he has 50 years worth of experience at wall street!!!

[@beautyandthebeardedbeast]

This might be the most compelling argument for bitcoin I've seen in 10 years of being in crypto. This is frightening.

[@fibervector6734]

Hope this guy is right David, everyone has their Predictions, right

[@dave8212]

Great to see David on your show David, thanks to you both ! 👍💛

[@vahabarmenian5845]

he has been saying the same thing melt up then 80% crash since eternity

[@billwalton4571]

Before 1950s men supported a family on his wage alone.

[@pvfeB7Ax]

It sounds like nothing can stop the on coming calamity.

[@nickstraker5028]

True contrarian

[@stevenly5895]

Every time I some one interviewed Mr . David Hunter.. that he The stock market melted up. I started to worry.

[@fitnesspoint2006]

He is inverse Harry Dent.

[@ericmodernel9205]

that's his cousin.. they both smoke crack on the weekends

[@originalfred66]

This wins hands down for the worst interview on the channel. David Hunter has been predicting a "melt up" for 3 years, and he is always wrong. He will never admit he was wrong, though. Anyone who followed his advice went broke. He is not a "contrarian"; he is just a broken clock.

[@Fearzero]

Tell us you missed the bottom without telling us.

[@sergios9338]

I hope so. First time hearing this and he scared the shit out of me. Lol I was looking for a comment like yours 😅

[@originalfred66]

@@sergios9338 , he somehow is able to make his nonsense sound like it could actually happen. It is only when you realize that he has been running this grift for years that you see how ridiculous he is.

[@originalfred66]

@@Fearzero , what bottom? The market constantly has tops and bottoms. Markets go up and down. You will never be able to time those ups and downs by listening to a grifter like David Hunter.

[@wakethebarbarian4577]

Hunter is certifiably insane, but very clever. I started following him right before the covid crash. His bullishness at the nadir of March 2020 was genius and his reasoning kept me in the market at the time. So he has made me money. The only problem I have with him is his melt-up scenario. He was right on the mark in 2020 forecasting 4,500 or so on the S&P 500, but kept raising his S&P 500 target to this ridiculous 6,000 target for whatever reason. I like the guy, but he banished me from following him on Twitter for an inocuous remark, which makes me feel his not quite right mentally. BTW, he has a very attractive daughter.

[@75tudor]

Bout time you had the GOAT on !

[@douglasstewart2253]

Excellent interview from both sides.

[@jtrealfunny]

Question (for that african crypto guy, he was good). I head another person saying the current higher interest rate environment would be the death knell for stable coins because people couldn't tolerate the loss of return relative to inflation. If this was true I bet it would also bring down a lot of the rumored wash trading in crypto, or is that wrong? I kind of imagine if there's enough 'real' volume in crypto people would still rather hold the stable coin but if the trading is actually thin and fizzy losing 4 percent versus zero to inflation might be significant. There's a question in there somewhere, I'm sure.

[@ImRickSanchez]

I would agree with him on home prices if supply wasn't so low

[@petercalicchio4973]

So we should be buying right now.

[@mmorphy4258]

I like Dave because hes bold enough to make the calls no one else would make. After listening, its not totally outlandish. Certain things have to align. I really wish you got Dave to talk more about these "41-42" year cycles and the greater depression cycle.

[@BSLeonnn]

I bought 20,000 XRM5T .. hoping for a big run

[@Malfoy263]

I hold XRM5T. Very promising project, and its ecosystem maintains complete anonymity

[@moa3810]

I wish you had asked about the cycles of the currencies i.e. the dollar and cryptos. Good interview though.

[@jeffsutterfield]

Total BS! If the market adds even 10 percent to its current level, it would be a miracle.

[@justasmackevicius2940]

It’s a miracle it’s where it’s at.

[@rayng4336]

How will home prices come down in a commodity super cycle? All the raw materials will go up

[@darwinmolina8531]

Thanks for all this information David. !!! A lot of opportunities ahead for the next decade.

[@thehungergames8918]

Summer 😮 but which year 🙄

[@snowretro4x4]

Where is the liquidity coming from for the melt up?

[@JustForRita]

I have to admit, I was sceptical about his new call for a second melt up to take place this year, but I'm starting to believe this could happen now.

[@gianfrancobergagna4024]

Probably but not the numbers he’s talking about!

[@JustForRita]

@gianfrancobergagna4024 yeah maybe not as crazy as he predicts

[@jersey2626]

Ya, it does look like SPX could form a double top, but I was thinking 5k, idk about 6 or 7k.

[@virtualmetherephotography]

The numbers are crazy and out of control.

[@trevordowney6425]

"Shrinkage" - George Costanza

[@hristohristov7572]

I think he uses a monthly FIB extension to reach SPX 6000. But he just cant realize that the major long uptrend is broken and FIB extension is no longer valid for the monthly uptrend.

[@harrywright2879]

I believe this guy is right. I don't feel good or safe about our economy and I mean worldwide. I hope he's wrong or at least mostly wrong. I mean $400/barrel of oil is disastrous. If we get 25% inflation that could lead to higher and higher inflation. Very scary!

[@davidbobo9740]

Listening to financial experts as listening to the weatherman . Take it with a grain of salt and prepare .

[@dubasciver3234]

Really enjoyed this talk David. Whether you agree or not, you can’t ignore the fact that an economy cannot be sustained on debt indefinitely. Households don’t work like that, businesses don’t work like that, and government can only work like that for so long.

[@thehungergames8918]

David the super duper bull 🐂 😃✊

[@joeysocks5718]

This may be the reason central banks bought RECORD AMOUNTS of Gold recently. 😮

[@rambuller]

The crash of 29 got out of control because margin had only just been introduced to markets. It’s was the first oopsy from the use of leverage. 100 years in we’re a little better @ this. Won’t happen again.

[@snorfallupagus6014]

Famous last words.

[@mth469]

Leverage now is 1000x greater. So....a crash 1000x greater.

[@markwilliams4362]

David Hunter , much respect sir .🙏🇦🇺

[@pamdemic7848]

I’m afraid he’s right.