Is China running out of people?

Beijing has industrialized faster than any nation in history. Now, it is also ageing faster than any nation.
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BAKU - There is no doubt that China is emerging as a regional powerhouse. In the past thirty years, its GDP has grown from just 177 billion USD to 12,2 trillion USD. But there is a flaw in China’s model of growth. Demographic data shows that the country is now facing a severe decline in population. China’s fertility rate is dropping, people are living longer, and the workforce is shrinking. For a country whose young workforce is the backbone of its economy, these demographic trends are harbingers of social, economic and political disaster.
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[@CaspianReport]

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[@xipengwang2818]

I have to say this. As a country which can maintain one child policy for decades, I have confidence that it can also turn population trend through mandatory policies. Is this humane? But China will prove it possible.

[@joshuagenes]

I love your titles. France a super power, China running out of people....It is unconventional and make us do a double take.

[@xipengwang2818]

@Scott Whatever LMAO you are lack of proper education.

[@imortalones]

xd thats why they got rid of the 1 child policy this year.

[@xipengwang2818]

@Scott Whatever sure sure I should believe everything I was told on the internet, like you do.

[@greysonnaller2079]

wait for the 10-child-policy and forced conception

[@dustinkrejci6142]

greysonn Aller place marker comment just Incase.

[@GAZAMAN93X]

@@Ozymandias1 china and Africa have a mutual relationship. The West has been leaching off of Africa for far too long

[@boyar1978]

@@Ozymandias1 euripe must have fewer cats now?

[@MeidoInHebun]

They'll just grow babies in vats instead. They don't need to grow in families, the omnipresent state will be their parent and they will grow to love the state with all their heart.

[@wellardbr]

@gambotti alexandre YEs, because it is the economical uncertainties and the prospect cost of rearing children (beside women's option for a lenghtier professional life) that precludes most modern couples from having more babies. Making them is easy. Rearing them responsibly, smtng else.

[@donaldhysa4836]

China: Bans people from having children CHina: Population decline CHina: *surprised Pikachu face*

[@MrDgo4life]

China: SUCCESS! West: China run out of people! China: Ok Boys lets get busy!!

[@MrPRECLIK]

They want to reduce their population, it' was not sustainable for them to have so much people, so they reduced that number. You can better use your resource if you have less people, than overcrowded land. China have 4x more population density than USA ..

[@donaldhysa4836]

@@MrPRECLIK Less people who are old and not productive? Is that how you be sustainable?

[@MrPRECLIK]

@@donaldhysa4836 Anytime when you decreasing your population, you will have one generation that will have more old people than others generations. But after some time it will go back to normal. It's more sustainable than rely on cheap imigrant work, or on steady grow of your population

[@donaldhysa4836]

@@MrPRECLIK How can it go back to normal when the birthrate keeps going down?

[@drunkcatphil9911]

I’ve lived in China for almost 3 years and it seems like very typical thing for the government to ignore an issue too long and then massively overreact. Drink driving is pretty good example.

[@macmarc6661]

Yeah I noticed that trend too. But at least it has a strong reaction, and does not take 10 years to address a foreseeable problem like my country

[@harbourhaven]

@@macmarc6661 No, you can't get much worse than China. Step one, kill all the birds. Step two, 10% of your population starves to death. Step three, start one child policy so you have less mouths to feed. Step four, permanently cripple your economy and starve your elderly to death. Step four hasn't happened yet. But the deficit will be impossible to fill.

[@the_fabulous_p14]

Same in India. just that our government under-reacts.

[@harbourhaven]

@@victorpandolfi4147 Hard to understand what you're saying.

[@bcatypical]

@@macmarc6661 Huh? How did they not clue in that maybe keeping just BOY babies wouldn't work long-term?

[@TingyuGu]

I talked to a few cousins in China and I observed a notable phenomenon: my cousin sister whose family is highly educated, middle class and enjoy very good income, is not willing to have second child because she wants to focus her monetary resource and time on her one daughter so her daughter can have very high quality education and life for future success; yet my another cousin brother who didn’t get good education and earned little, is thinking of having 2 kids and even more, because he thinks it will be “fun” to have a lot of kids in his family and he thinks whether the kids will have good life or not doesn’t matter because anyway they will find a way to survive.

[@jerry85g7]

Poorer people always make more children

[@khaccanhle1930]

Wasn't there a movie made on this premise? A dystopian future because smart people were careful about having kids, but ignorant people just kept f---ing and birthing?

[@ytyt3922]

That’s completely normal. The more affluent and educated you are, the fewer children you have (as a general rule).

[@davidnaugler73]

In Canada, the oppressed Indigenous people are the only growing ethnicity.

[@ivanshuck3419]

Jerry 85g That’s why America will be taken over by Blacks and Mexicans eventually.

[@damonferrara3637]

It's a lot easier to find Hong Kong stock footage, isn't it?

[@AbdulDean448]

Because Hong Kong is nicer than China

[@hedgehog_fox]

@@AbdulDean448 visited Hongkong once. Will never go back to that shithole again.

[@jimmyjohnsontheiv8980]

Hedgehog Fox ikr bro i saw ppl getting fuckin murdered in the streets like the purge

[@albertoamoruso7711]

@@AbdulDean448 Nope.

[@johnrollex680]

I think the Communist party has reduced Hong Kong to a place that is not quite so nice.

[@lemdixon01]

The one child policy also encouraged enfantacide of baby girls so there are more men than women.

[@MeidoInHebun]

@arcangelkrlos because boys are stronger and better suited for manual work in the farms

[@gostavoadolfos2023]

Imagine hundreds of millions of kids who will never understand what uncle or cousin mean!

[@joeessig3550]

@arcangelkrlos Good point, thanks for that information.

[@paulherzog9605]

Pakistan has most out of order ratio of men to women in the world. Many, many more men. Big social problems

[@rexlupusetxe8367]

I thought Shirvan was going to address that, ia it really that bad tough?

[@wanderingwondering3437]

Caspian report, please make a video about the Turkish invasion in Syria

[@deamonic456820]

You mean in Kurdistan?

[@Futboleria]

@@deamonic456820 he mean Syria.

[@wanderingwondering3437]

@@deamonic456820 Yes

[@edwardsnowden2313]

Lol fuck turkey.

[@XxSniper32]

TokyoRoyalty Kurdistan is not a country.. yet.

[@cottonprint6388]

Japan: first time

[@liberalbias4462]

@@dannylive3000 me

[@utrix_1121]

@Black Gold You're on every comment I swear, what garbage to you drink and regurgitate.

[@shahranmahmood3366]

@Black Gold I don't know what history you read, but US helped Japan build their industries and grow their businesses and setup a democratic government there. What other nation did so much improvement for a nation who used to be their enemy? Of course I don't support the nuclear strikes, but The Imperial government brought about nothing but tyranny upon all of Asia, that includes Japanese people too. Read about Nanking massacre, Philippines under Japanese occupation, Burma under Japanese occupation. You'll have an idea what Japan used to be before WW2.

[@ArawnOfAnnwn]

To be fair to China, the one-child policy wasn't some wacky idea. Back when it was adopted, population panic was in vogue in the West too (in many communities today it still is) complete with support for stringent countermeasures, and China's burgeoning numbers were at the heart of it. It was just that this was one problem the West wasn't responsible for (which is also why it's still such a popular clarion call today) and so the steps to combat were encouraged in places like China as well as India and much of Africa. What economists and demographers have since learned is that such draconian measures typically backfire i.e. do more harm than good - the West was able to comfortably learn that lesson merely theoretically since it never needed the changes to begin with, while places like China are now learning it the hard way. Population alarmism has been an albatross around the worlds' neck ever since Thomas Malthus first put forward the idea, and so far has never actually been borne out.

[@boxlid214]

@Black Gold Omg you're dumb, we drill our own now, with a tiny percentage coming from Canada. It's not the 1970's anymore lol

[@guanjun1178]

Having lived in China in different cities for years, it is starting how many old folks there are over there. They seem to outnumber everyone else.

[@madsam0320]

Chinese retired quite young, men at 60, women only 55. They lead active life, that is why you see them everywhere.

[@Birdylockso]

@@madsam0320 , right, so it makes perfect sense to have the retirement delayed by 5 years at least. I'm not sure why women at 55. Don't they live longer anyway?

[@madsam0320]

@@Birdylockso You see old people everywhere in China especially when the children are in schools and adults at work. Even adding five years is not sustainable because the life expectancy has gone up to over 80. Ten years is more in par with many developed countries. Women retiring earlier than men is also the norm in most countries, but you are right, they outlived men and it’s puzzling. Men used to do hard menial labour but are now not common.

[@Birdylockso]

@@madsam0320 , true. One thing, though, is that China might be at the forefront of automation innovation. As such, one factor that might be overlooked is the amount of work robots could replace. If this factor is configured into the calculation, the lack of "workforce" could easily be taken up by additional automation going forward, mitigating the demographic crisis. Don't you think? Just spitballing here.

[@goosenuggets9693]

​@@Birdylockso No. The biggest issue with automation is that it mainly applies to mid wage occupations with binary manual labour tasks, any occupation with a lower wage or complex tasks would not fit the economics of the given business. The automated workers would be more expensive to produce & maintain than human workers (not to mention that many of these custom automations do not exist in the marketplace), this would not only cause China to lose a massive influx of foreign revenue, but also cause a spike in the domestic cost of products that could have severe socio-economic repercussions. Although it does have the potential to mitigate the worker demographic challenges that China is facing, it also has the potential to make it even worse. Machines still need people to repair them, they still need people to manufacture them, the automation itself often requires on site facilitators, and this all requires a workforce that is not only of a higher skill level than those the machines are replacing: but also a higher education level. Many of these workers (including the steel for production) would likely need to be imported and that's just not a Geopolitical narrative that fit's into the Chinese governments current foreign policy.

[@Notchmods]

All of China depicted by Hong Kong footages

[@imaginarylaurel]

Notch mods yeah I was really wondering about this. Why do you think that he would display it that way? Seems purposeful... even showing the HK flag when talking about China. Hm.

[@walex2285]

where one child policy is not conducted at all.

[@felixb6]

Laurel Mossor that’s where most stock footage of China comes from

[@Notchmods]

@@felixb6 I can't believe you are bothered to research how he got those footage.

[@johnwalsh717]

@@Notchmods You don't have to research how someone gets footage to know they probably got it from a stock footage site. That's where most footage comes from.

[@Kagemusha08]

The 4-2-1 problem (four grandparents, two parents, one child). Isn't China trying to transition to an internal consumer economy too? That's going to be pretty tough...

[@RJT80]

Xi has already said that his goal of creating the sizable middle class that would truly be self sustaining is now not going to happen. There is a lot going on behind that Chinese curtain that is not so rosy at all. Say what you want to about Trump but he has been talking about taking on China's trade policies since the late 90s. He couldn't have picked a better time to do it and based solely on the metrics alone, China has been much more severely hurt during his trade war. Europe should be joining the US. But as we have seen with the NBA thing, far too many are afraid of taking them on. They have bought a lot of silence.

[@Munchausenification]

Wasnt there a mad chinese scientist who might have done cloning of humans? Might be something the government might support...

[@DFPercush]

@Dark PePe Race has nothing to do with it, it's costing us $500 billion a year to "trade" with China. That had to be fixed. Trade has to go both ways.

[@DFPercush]

"USA does definately have overall surplus trading with the world." - Not according to tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade Besides, who's losing? If you want to buy a Mcdonald's hamburger, you are willing to trade your money for the burger, it's voluntary. I wish more people would be patriotic and conscious about spending on their local economies more, but if you want to buy a foreign product that's your choice. What's not voluntary is the tarrifs and duties, or outright bans. All we want is a reciprocal arrangement. It can't be one way. If a country wants to put tarrifs and restrictions on US imports, that's fine, but then they shouldn't complain when we do the same to them. I'd prefer to de-escalate and just have open trade both ways, but everybody wants the advantage for themselves, saying we should have a handicap because we can afford it, dragging us down, instead of figuring out what made us successful and emulating it. Such a philosophy will make the whole world poor in the end.

[@mizutofu]

imagine inheriting the wealth of 6 people accumulated over a life time

[@CentiZen]

"Those who have been hacked, or those who will be hacked. NordVPN" Oh if only you had known how goddamn funny that was going to be in a week or two.

[@sepulcher8263]

What happened?

[@donaldhysa4836]

@@sepulcher8263 Nord VPN went South.. they got hacked

[@sepulcher8263]

@@donaldhysa4836 Goddamn

[@donaldhysa4836]

@@sepulcher8263 Indeed

[@bemnet7149]

Ironic

[@bradolfpittler2875]

China: our population is aging Japan: hold my biru

[@spiraldude]

@Thomas Watvedt joke

[@Brandonhayhew]

Despite the size of it and the numbers of people sometimes lesser country's problem can be more bad then the big Country

[@quisqueyanguy120]

* hold my sake

[@lookatthisguyhere7712]

fireson23 Japan has many advantages though, chief among them true free markets. Any major crisis in China is a national dilemma, in Japan each loss is company to company. Yes both will hurt but not in the same way. Japan can really solve most all of its problems by relaxing immigration laws as well. China will need to do the same AND break up it’s corporations from it’s government. Not to mention, China is more diverse and more prone to political unrest (in the present). With Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Etc, and the ever growing ability to get around the great firewall, China may face it’s own cultural collapse before any of these other scenarios come to fruition. Where as Japan, that simply isn’t an issue. At least not to a fraction of a degree.

[@kyranmerkley5435]

@fireson23 I wouldnt really use the great depression as an example the "New Deal" did not get us out of the great depression and some can argue that it pro longed it what got us out of the great depression was world war 2

[@viktorandersson7802]

Please dont say that Sweden has a successful pension system. My generation wont get any state pension ...

[@ZaKRo-bx7lp]

It's an outdated view on Sweden. Sweden may even collapse as a nation.

[@mikey3932]

@@ZaKRo-bx7lp dude I keep hearing from reputable scholars about how good the nordic nations are and then I run into people like you and im so confused

[@ZaKRo-bx7lp]

@@mikey3932 Scholars are correct in their assessment that Nordic countries have prosperity and are very well stable. The problem however is economic and social. Mass immigration has caused so much strive and crime that people who live in Sweden do not identify themselves with the Swedish state. The region of Skåne has become ground zero in regards to the decline of the country, as mass immigration puts massive strain on resources and the state keeps employing tactics to merely ignore the problem and defame the people who bring it up. Swedes are afraid to go outside as crime sky-rockets and judges famously implement worse and worse tactics to solve the issue. In the end, Swedes don't want to live with oppression, crime and violence, Immigrants don't want to live with the very same policies and conditions that brought them there and the atomization of people is causing the notion of a diverse Sweden to fracture. It's an us vs them situation, not to mention the economic downturn.

[@mikey3932]

@@ZaKRo-bx7lp ive heard but that story mostly came from my right-wing news sources and the left-wing one haven't really picked it up so I assumed that it was being exaggerated

[@ZaKRo-bx7lp]

@@mikey3932 Yeah, it gets hyperbolic with right-wing propaganda, but having seen this first hand, there's truth to the fact that in Sweden a lot of tensions are building up.

[@oligokid]

Just came back from China, would not recommend going there during the 1st week of October. They are DEFINITELY NOT running out of people there

[@xlyoutube]

Kindly advise you to avoid first week of May, first week of October and the week leading to Chinese New Year. You would be joined by billions of domestic tourists. Also need to avoid the "Two Conferences" (Congress and CCP Conferences) months if you are visiting Beijing.

[@danielrodriguez248]

A couple of dozen nuked can take care of that

[@rubbishrabble]

@@vitocorleone8323 PBS didn't say Japan's worse than China. Japan 40.39% over 55, 47.7 median age. China 22.62% over 55, 37.7 median age. Source: CIA World Factbook. The main problem is China, much like the USA, has wealth concentrated among what Credit Suisse defines as the "ultra-high net worth". China: median $20942, mean $58544. USA: median $65904, mean $432365. reasonable ratio Japan: median $110408, mean $238104. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra_high-net-worth_individual

[@rubbishrabble]

@@vitocorleone8323 PBS basically said the China equivalent of USA rural & poor baby-boomer also were long ago forgotten. Guangdong's province main growth was 1990-2000 62-85, 2000-2010 85-104; 1964-1990 only 20 million growth. China's failure to mimic the growth of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, etc. has resulted in 50 million ghost homes. Japan's 2013 "The economic crisis and Recovery in OECD regions and cities" paper has Tokyo 2020 22% 15-64, 9% 65+; non-metro 33% 15-64, 18% 65+. Japan fertility: Kyushu island 1.6+, non-metro 1.5, Tokyo 1.25 so wealth & pop-growth concentrated regionally (except Japan more metro than USA, China).

[@cnccarving]

every 5th people is chinese on the earth the title sounds foolish

[@aussieboy4090]

Japan: Did you do it? China: Yes Japan: What did it cost? China: Everything

[@smmm5559]

@@408Magenta lol yes 😂😂😂

[@sthuon]

@An Gry With the world's largest iron ore reserves, the world's largest gold reserves, the world's largest uranium reserves, the world's largest bauxite producer, the world's biggest LNG exporter, the world's biggest coal exporter, among the world's largest diamond producers, among the world's largest rare earth minerals, copper, and lithium reserves, and one of the world's largest agricultural exporters, Australia is extremely relevant. The only reason you don't hear about us on the news is because we're stable.

[@sthuon]

@An Gry Engineering is worthless without the raw materials to make it possible. Food is essential to life. As for your last comment, I don't know where the hostility is coming from, but maybe one day you'll become a better person.

[@macrick]

@@sthuon Hahahaha!!!!

[@jonlocke1624]

@098765 Craper Maybe Australians just have more confidence in their way of life and find peace and happiness without the obsession with developing and selling technology. Maybe, just maybe, we don't need anymore versions of Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, SnapChat, Alibaba, etc. and we just need to find a way to be happy. I'd rather be weaker and happier than stronger and miserable. Side note: Australia's military is not weak. They have some of the best soldiers, sailors and airmen (including a top tier special operations group) in the world.

[@giuseppedibartolo3580]

Correction: is China running out of women?

[@123Dunebuggy]

Thats the same effect, less women less children.

[@bez1196]

Explains why there are so many Chinese incels.

[@jabloko992]

Very good correction. Those 100 million extra dudes (made up approximation) can't make babies by themselves.

[@giuseppedibartolo3580]

China’s going to be the first place where artificial wombs will be made

[@al8731]

Trust me we have lot of women.

[@alainarchambault2331]

Well, considering they've started with the largest population, that is what they wanted.

[@jimthompson5844]

You don’t understand, a population growth is good, a massive old population is bad because they don’t work but pull from the economy

[@alainarchambault2331]

@@jimthompson5844 They wanted one child per family because of overpopulation. The logistics of feeding and keeping such a large population takes a toll on the local flora and fauna. In addition, their pollution is tens times worse than in the west. Granted, in the long run, they may well have traded one problem for another as you've said. Especially when the individual families favored sons over daughters.

[@jimthompson5844]

@@alainarchambault2331 it’s a Sophie’s Choice

[@peacerespect98]

There are 1,4 billion Chinese population in 2019 already.

[@andrerothweiler9191]

It's not as bad as it sounds. I am more scared if 0.5 Billion Nigeria

[@utrix_1121]

@@andrerothweiler9191 Yeah me too, Nigeria is big, but not big enough for 500 million people. Heck the nation is only the size of a few American states.

[@andrerothweiler9191]

@@utrix_1121 China has infrastructure but Nigeria has nothing

[@utrix_1121]

@@andrerothweiler9191 Nigeria does have infrastructure, but it's hardly enough to support the current population. Too much corruption takes money away from vital infrastructure projects.

[@andrerothweiler9191]

@@utrix_1121 Nigerian economy is based on oil, and agriculture. Europe is getting slowly into renewables and more and more countries want to ban combustion engine. If Nigeria wants to develop, it has to introduce one-child policy or it will forever be a failed state. To have a huge population is not a bonus anymore when more and more jobs will be replaced by robots.

[@PoklaanNL]

If China's influence declines there's only 1 thing we should do: celebrate.

[@giuchv6695]

ScarletDespair China is authoritarian

[@arminius6506]

Be ready for 5000 dollar I phone.. Basic goods will cost twice more than today. And yes USA will get a licence to go and bomb every country 😊

[@wilhelmbittrich88]

Chinese Cannabis Party CCP Who cares? I don’t care if poor people can’t afford unnecessary material things.

[@arminius6506]

@@wilhelmbittrich88 lolz why Ugly Snakes of America USA is going butthurt? 😂 I know you don't have decent school system so let me tell you that it's Middle Class who needs goods on fair prices. (poor people first priority is to get basic life facilities)

[@wilhelmbittrich88]

Zeeshan Niazi You’re an idiot, I’m not even American.

[@sionsmedia8249]

"Population decline in 2030", actually it was 2021.

[@seanbrummfield448]

Heck, it might've even been two years ago. Nobody's going to tell.

[@no2party]

It reminds me of an old joke: Put a communist in charge of the desert and you'll run out of sand.

[@nocturnal7590]

US of Israhell Yeah, because they used the countless bodies of political dissidents (their own people) as fertilizer.

[@johnstown2451]

Panakeje - While they have 10 million people in slave labor camps

[@wenzhang9514]

@@johnstown2451 lol,u guys really known about my country than all of us!i am eager to visit those slave labors right now or maybe u can tell me where are they!

[@johnstown2451]

wen zhang - www.nytimes.com/2018/12/16/world/asia/xinjiang-china-forced-labor-camps-uighurs.html

[@stefanb6539]

Oh, now China is communist again? I have been told so many times that China is really capitalist, when rightwingers try to explain, how a communist country kicks capitalist US ass in economic growth and output. Can't you guys keep your story straight? My bad, forgot who I am talking to.

[@MemeatorMotivatoroftheMemes]

"Is China running out of people?" *HOI4 Players when they see a United China on Scraping the Barrel* Player: uhhh.... no

[@Lawrance_of_Albania]

Japanese officer: Sir we dont have enough bullets for this

[@kaiserkiefer1760]

Nothing feels better than getting a 10M to 125k Kills to loss. As Australia vs China 😂

[@Lawrance_of_Albania]

@@kaiserkiefer1760 Well china and russia in hoi4 are bit too nerfed

[@kaiserkiefer1760]

holi858 yeah plus they start of in pretty bad shape as well.

[@xlyoutube]

@@Lawrance_of_Albania These two actually had a whopping 45 Million deaths combined in WWII....

[@SultanMapping]

China: **has largest population in the world** also china: _running out of people_

[@tritium1998]

It's just losers with fewer productive people saying that.

[@alekseysoldatenkov5675]

All I can think of is Zeihan's analysis on the situation, it's so damn compelling.

[@frederickkotze8138]

the most interesting channel on youtube

[@_--Reaper--_]

Well I'd imagine they'd introduce a policy where each couple is required to produce a specific quota of children. Either that or they may resort to cloning

[@_--Reaper--_]

@tzar 1917 and u must be a clown

[@pry9852]

_-OutKast-_ Actually, Japan is already having tax for not married people.However,it’s useless, As far as I know, China haven’t have the policy of resemble one. Maybe encouraging people to have babies with rewards like US or Russia? Seems that doesn’t work much in these countries.

[@tuele4302]

@小熊维尼 Really? Vietnamese guy here. Have not heard of birth quotas in China. Cloning? Has it actually been done?

[@tuele4302]

@小熊维尼 Sources, please! The one-child policy got replaced by the two-child policy (as an upper limit) in 2016. If the CCP lifted all birth restrictions, I have not heard of it. Forcing people to have more children will probably not work out well. Popping out a child is one thing. Raising him/her is another.

[@inexpertxennial6067]

No need to clone when you can easily use embryo. Artificial wombs or have genetically engineered humans is the future

[@lingyu8012]

The demographic doomsday for China is kind of a cliche. In the next several decades, we will see large number of human workers replaced by AI and automation (not only in manufacturing but in all sectors). Most countries in the world will have unemployment problem instead of workforce shortage. China's population decline perfectly coincides with this trend..

[@etorawa9367]

This is why China is trying really hard to transition into a consumer economy.

[@laithsaleem580]

@Alex Mercer comment of the month 😂😂😂😂

[@Junokaii]

Chinese government: implements a one child policy in the 1970s 40 years later: China's labour force starts shrinking Chinese government: Shocked Pikachu face

[@andrewlindsay4773]

If China has almost no welfare system then an ageing population is not an economic nightmare like it will be in welfare dependent western nations

[@halpittaway111]

Thank you so much for your videos they’re very enlightening!

[@sampurnadas3810]

Robots will replace the need of labour easily.

[@blub232324]

Yes they will, but the key issue, as stated in the video, is timing. Right now even in a field like software testing you need a lot of people as the toolchains are not stable and adaptable enough to run on their own. It will take many years to develop this on a large scale.

[@BeastinlosersHD]

@@blub232324 Yeah economically they are not primed for automation at the moment. They probably won't be by the time of population decline either. As someone in software development - American-taught developers are statistically (like by a lot) better at programming than Russian, Asian (China, Japan, Korea) and Indian developers (there was a study on this. Our average developer is equivalent to their Country's-Ivy-Equivilant). Software development is hard enough since there are little concrete answers on how to do something (unlike say civil engineering) - which makes it hard for a culture who's idea of learning is based on memorization. Plus all automation does is make jobs get more and more advanced. You don't stop working because of automation, you take on different problems - something China isn't sociology-economically mature enough to do.

[@obsidianstatue]

@@blub232324 the timing is just right, AI is already replacing many service jobs, China is already the world's largest user of industrial robots, with a lot of room for growth, this will only spur the AI and Robotic industry in China.

[@obsidianstatue]

@Hue Man that's where ideas like Universal income, comes in. we are transitioning into a post-scarcity society.

[@mohnishm1372]

@@obsidianstatue OK, let's assume automation is in its peak in China, what about domestic market? China is a communist state. So, it can't rely on countries like US, Japan, India or britain to sell it's products too. With domestic market shrinking and automation on the rise, people are gonna lose jobs. How should China deal with that?

[@SleimanSam]

Fantastic content Shirvan, You are a true inspiration.

[@drcoolcabbage]

"This will only postpone the crisis, not resolve it." Sums up Chinese government policy perfectly.

[@netgiant2592]

Replace Chinese Govt with US Govt and you'll really hit the nail.

[@kempodle4665]

Net Giant really any government

[@AngaarV]

Don't replace anything, just add USA in it 😂

[@kategrant2728]

The US government doesnt ppstpone crisis, it accelerates them

[@rog4464]

AI and automation are the game changers. This analysis is be based on the conventional point of view. The world will never be the same and the Chinese government seems to be positioning itself for the up coming revolution.

[@rumaniandude]

"Not everything is doom and gloom." Glad to see the happy side of the story Shirvan. Keep up the hard work brother!

[@uegvdczuVF]

Especially the last sentence, "if they can prepare the machinery of government" well, if there is a government on this planet that can do that - theirs is the one. They succeeded in dragging China from 18th century in to 21th in 70 years, using what ever means they had available and with little concern to anything or anyone else.

[@josueaparicio7888]

@@uegvdczuVF Except for the One child policy which pretty much guaranteed this catastrophe, also they choked in the slowdown of 2009 and blew up their debt with a lot of bad investments. Honestly any type of government outside of the old communist government could've industrialized China. The problems it's about to face are percicely due to their authoritarian moves.

[@uegvdczuVF]

@@josueaparicio7888 Yawn, i have been hearing the same doom and gloom stuff since the 80's. Meanwhile China became worlds second largest economy. And the main reason for that - authoritarian government.

[@theburden9920]

@@uegvdczuVF i have been hearing this population collapse that the analyst is predicting. But china population cant grow forever

[@legendofpersia]

great stuff Caspian Report, thank you

[@gilangp2011]

34 minutes launcing video 2,8 thousand watching Your channel really educating us. Salam from me in Indonesia...

[@alienwithhands]

Gilang Pangestu gipeeeeeng

[@curtisnoll1292]

A salami laykum!

[@ChPonsard]

Peter Zeihan has been hammering on this for a while, as I'm sure you know. Great topic!

[@obsidianstatue]

with automation and AI taking over services jobs, a stable population who are highly skilled are desirable, because no matter how hard a human work in a third world country, they can't compete against the efficiency of machines. so a large young and unskilled population such as India or Nigeria is a burden in the next industrial revolution. China is actually in a good place, because the government is being forced to rethink the economic model and growth drivers.

[@Hirvee5]

I think it might be the unskilled labor that actually gets hit by the ai the least because it is cheaper to use a person to sew a seam to a jacket than to build a robot for the job and automate it.

[@Titangrille]

@@Hirvee5 a machine does it 1000 times faster and without making mistakes.

[@Bobelponge123]

Symon mistakes don’t matter when costs are near 0

[@gottalovesaurav]

this is the reason indians aare moving to the western nations

[@gottalovesaurav]

Peace and Love both are trying hard, but Chinese can move easier because they are much richer than indians.

[@fhialsdhkt43tg72]

maybe one child policy was an error after all

[@alantan9863]

At 1st, it was the more the merrier, when they wanted to limit growth, they realised they can't stop at 2.

[@democracyrespecterilovedem8607]

just like putting a bounty on all the sparrows.

[@Professional_Youtube_Commenter]

China has produced a society where its normal and expected for a man and woman both work. So its harder for a womsn to stop and gave children and raise them for a few years

[@tdreamgmail]

Typical economic policy, good in the short term, horrible in the long term.

[@vittoriopiaser9233]

Grimshaw Grummage yes, true, this same thing has also been happening in the past 3 decades all over Europe as well.

[@ayush5938]

Let's hope that other countries are able to achieve this too.

[@smmm5559]

achieve what ? Ageing and shrinking population ?

[@ayush5938]

@@smmm5559 I would focus more on the shrinking part but the ageing population comes as a part of it. Hopefully technological advances can help in maintaining or even improving living standards.

[@ayush5938]

@kelly billy less population better overall for everybody.

[@edwardsnowden2313]

Are you fucking high? Just watch the video again degenerate.

[@smmm5559]

@@ayush5938 normal modest population growth is totaly perfect But a shrinking population is disastrous 1. Banks will have less capital which mean less innovation like spain 2. Lower purchasing power wich will cause slower economic growth and higher unemployment like italy 3.less productivity and more consumption which can cause a disaster Normal population growth doesn't mean huge consumption need . Having a lot of old ppl does like Russia so shut the fuck up

[@dannyhughes9874]

Nice presentation. Your English is excellent.

[@johnyricco1220]

China is not projecting labor shortage. In fact their main worry is unemployment as their economy transitions from labor intensive to higher skilled post-industrial economy. The government is worried that it would no longer be necessary to employ so many people and plans for a universal basic income is being floated. This is hardly a country worried about aging labor force. On a side note, most people don't realize that Chinese people retire early. 55 for men and 50 for women. They start collecting pensions at that age. So the country has a lot of room to deal with aging population. The reason for this early retirement is to keep youth fully employed, and also because the elders are expected to look after their grand kids so young mothers can participate in the labor force. But this is no longer necessary as Chinese people have fewer kids now. So if there is a shortage of labor the easy fix is change retirement age inline with the rest of the world.

[@mr.fantastic7756]

Schooled. Thank you.

[@alexanderchenf1]

Aging has been a problem beyond dispute in China. Discussion among Chinese media about this happened at least since about 2007 when I read Chinese magazines in China. Your retirement age information does not seem true at all. My father is a 65 years old medical doctor. He “retired” but he was hired back by the hospital (退休返聘）.

[@mr.fantastic7756]

@@alexanderchenf1 Well a specialized skill like that, I could see why they took him back into the workforce. Did they allow him to work fulltime or did they limit his hours?

[@lance8080]

Theirs no women for the men this totalitarian dictatorship screwed it’s self

[@NoJusticeNoProfit24]

Lance Rexington China’s male/female imbalance was also the result of the Chinese cultural drive for a male child who was fated to serve the family with the burden of his parents old age. Female infants were killed, as an onerous expense and burden to the family. This was the Communist Central Committee solution to insoluble overpopulation. This idea was also a popular concern at that time in the west.

[@comradeofthebalance3147]

Lance Rexington Totalitarian? Seriously. Use your terms right. Authoritarian. It is authoritarian

[@comradeofthebalance3147]

Leftwing-Rightwing Bird ready for plucking As a Geography student, the preference of boys over girls is a major one but not the only one. Also you have to consider those who had children above the limit and had to abandon or send them far away or even kill them. That is also a consideration.

[@stevendong8634]

Lance Rexington more like screwed the left over men, the society in a whole hardly feels anything

[@deezeed2817]

It’s funny how Americans love using it to smear China. Gender ratios are worse in India yet not one American talks about it because India sucks up to America. No it’s not a problem that affects China as a whole. The balance will be restored. All this bullshit about gender is propaganda by the media to try and paint China falsely. 98% of what America says about China are utter lies.

[@virendra24bangalore]

Very well narrated.

[@kibetronoh2376]

No, people are running out of China.

[@eitkoml]

If a country needs more children the answer is simple. Pass policies that are friendly towards people having families.

[@comradebear9477]

@Will to Power There's the obvious policy that will but people will never accept it. Lol

[@eitkoml]

@Will to Power Hungary changed its policies to be more friendly towards having children and quickly got its birthrate above replacement levels.

[@justinjernigan5696]

Informative as always. You're doing the Force's will, good sir. Keep going! I believe in you!

[@nagariansajjad1062]

When Robots and new techs replacing humans in many industries it should not be a problem for China.

[@theuglybiker]

Yeah, but then they'd get bored. And bored people get restless. And when the Chinese get restless, they go on 'Long Walks'. And that's the last thing the CCP wants because that's how they got in power.

[@Andy0770]

@@theuglybiker They should initiate Mars project make them more excited.

[@2drealms196]

A declining population will reduce the amount of unemployment and enormous social unrest the ai/automation wave will bring to the worldwide economy, when ai algorithms and automation that can work 24/7 and at lower costs replacing most factory workers, truckers, retail workers, warehouse workers, as well as slash deeply into the number of white collar workers, like Radiologists, Lawyers, etc.

[@TreacherousFennec]

china: whoa we need to tune pregnancy rates down or we will overpopulate *china is planned to get underpopuated in a decade* china: -suprised pikachu face-

[@gino9094]

This just sounds like an advanced Banished tutorial on population mechanics.

[@infoworld7706]

You forgot to mention that 10% are 65 years in China while 15% are 65 years old in the US, so the aging problem is more sever in the US than in China. Actually basically all the developed countries are more aging than China.

[@NoobsUnited9000]

The US doesnt have horrible protected population growth though so... Not really? Chinese don't like having kids, that's not the case here.

[@rouskeycarpel1436]

Infoworld China has 1.386B people while the US has 327.2M so China has a much,much larger elderly population.

[@martinmendl1399]

Unlike China, the US population is still projected to grow for the forseeable future, due to immigration and more sustainable birth rates. Unlike China, the US is also a rich and very developed nation that can afford to support that elderly population. The similar case with most of the developed world.

[@hanhan2360]

Sounds like another China collapse porn. It's not in 1300s anymore when more population means more power. If you study economics, you know the factors that drive GDP is many and dynamic. Population is one factor, an important one in the classic model. And things are changing fast, the weights of the factors are changing dynamically Have you ever thought that the model is outdated and flawed because nowadays GDP is more likely driven by productivity and innovation in more developed countries rather than simply population growth ? And Based on historical data to predict future is problematic. Don't think you are smarter than the Chinese. The Chinese are well aware of the problem decade ago and measurements are being taken.

[@hauntologicalwittgensteini2542]

Just because the chinese pop will decline doesnt mean its gonna fall

[@fullmetaltheorist]

Kinda ironic that the country with the most people is running out of people.

[@ttystikkrocks1042]

Hats off to you and to your research and writing team. Consistently solid content is never easy to write and yours is so densely packed with relevant facts, figures, trends, graphs and supporting data that I often watch episodes more than once to digest it all. If one were to carefully study all or even most of them it is easily equivalent to a college level international studies course. Yet another reason to contribute to the Patreon account!

[@SCtester]

Yeah - it's simultaneously entertaining & easy to understand, yet without feeling like it's dumbed down or oversimplified. That's a hard balance to achieve, but he nails it.

[@jsphfalcon]

Playing god when you don't control the future

[@MrDgo4life]

China controls the future

[@NoNo-qj3ef]

It won’t and can’t, they don’t believe in God

[@apexcrypto01]

@@MrDgo4life no, they don't

[@megasbaladoros]

@@NoNo-qj3ef True. But they do worship their ancestors. And they determined the birth rate of their time. So OP is actually close enough.

[@justinjernigan5696]

Just became a patron, luv ya!

[@justinjernigan5696]

I MEAN!.... You're content is agreeable and I will support it... So long as you KNOW THE POWER OF THE DARK SIDE!

[@kevinford4998]

If they didn't waste money on empty cities and all the money they spend on military. They would be right .

[@kagah.5393]

this video: Is China running out of people? Japan: hold my beer

[@buttert5091]

lol,

[@zarpfudeyenski5376]

But the japan are also losing their population too, but they have more women than men. So in this case, china: hold my pijiu

[@fbmw98]

My greatgrandparents were chinese, they had 12 kids back in 1930s-1940s. my family told me that at that time 3 in every 5 children died especially in south china region. luckily they got out of china and lived in hongkong, singapore, and Indonesia. all 12 of them survived.

[@guest1754]

1:36 Never forget to include y-axis in your graphs. Otherwise, it's not clear what's shown there.

[@mysteriousmango6467]

@Galaxy Gamers with one percentage point for each bar in the background, it seems

[@lc9481]

Its probably Annual population growth as stated in a huge font above the graph

[@ninonucaro8539]

Propaganda sales great on You Tube, if you fall in their Gestapo parameters they sent you millions of followers and give you courses how always be semi truthful. Most fall in line for more money.

[@shepherdsknoll8]

1.3 billion people- - - - old people.

[@jackzeng7096]

It's interesting that most of the background footage used in this video is taken in HongKong.

[@marpagapal3312]

Why is interesting a video of China with images of China?

[@themichaelwakaba]

Thanks to commies, authentic Chinese culture is only found in Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong. CCP boil in piss!

[@4G12]

On the contrary, this demographic shift is NOT a crisis, but the ultimate opportunity for China to restore its historical norm of being one of the major centers of cutting and bleeding edge tech for humanity.

[@prashanthb6521]

Both India and China must lower their populations asap.

[@akashsuresh1369]

Not gonna happen.

[@gabbar51ngh]

India's fertility rate is actually going down. They will suffer China like moment. They need to stick to having 2-3 children. Not more.

[@David-dl3vj]

Let us hope so, it would be a good thing.

[@michaelzlprime]

China's grand problem in the last century has been overpopulation. China's current population level simply cannot be supported by the land and it's resources, especially since China has been unlucky in most resources, such as fertile land and timber etc,. speaking with Chinese expatriates in the west, their main complaint is usually how crowded and inhumane Chinese society is. Chinese life quality would be much better if china reduced it's population to 600 million, and most Chinese understand that. so they know they have to undergo a painful population constriction for a few generations. luckily the Chinese unlike countries like India, Nigeria, Indonesia, and others have a powerful central government that can enforce effective population control. Had china never introduced its one-child policy, 2 billion hungry and angry Chinese would be pouring into western countries these days.

[@L0stEngineer]

The problem with centralized government is everyone tends to follow the same bad idea simultaneously. It hasn't worked for China in the past. At least with a decentralized democracy, everyone is following different ideas and not all of them will be bad.

[@davidnaugler73]

Most people in or migrate to cities. The problem with the fertility of the land is "climate change". Rising CO2 will increase agricultural productivity and roll back desertification which will in turn add more land for silviculture and agriculture.

[@hamoodyyasen654]

U guys are the best i wanna thank you for your contact... And i wish you make more videos about Africa and sudan

[@crashfaff]

Thing is peak population China right now is already needing to import millions of international workers each year to China to do jobs

[@iTuber012]

What was hinted at but not necessarily stated towards the end of the video is that with the rise of AI and automation, China's population decline may not hit as hard since the loss of jobs due to automation along with population loss may have no impact on China (and might be a positive thing to have most of your people focused on non manual labor jobs)

[@Tunsmandie]

Phew, and there I was thinking China wanted living room in Africa.

[@carlorielmendez6505]

Only the resources. They still use local labor for resource "stealing".

[@tk-5764]

So you're gonna have a KZbin video say "nah"

[@davetao1423]

They do

[@robinelliott1471]

First one of your videos I’ve watched. Interesting stuff! Subscribed!

[@RobbieFitzAu]

Yo Caspian. I’m deeply troubled by your use of footage of Hong Kong being categorised as China. Not everyone accepts the CCP line on that one.

[@billhodges7835]

It's China nigga

[@PrestigeLoft]

WATCHING THIS VIDEO MAKES ME FEEL LIKE I AM A RESOURCE TO THE WORLD THAT CAN BE THROWN OUT AT ANY TIME, THIS SUCKS SO BAD

[@indexfinisher]

I've watched about 3 videos all very fascinating......learnt new things, disagreed with some opinions but in all more importantly got me thinking. New subscriber now!

[@brucegibbins3792]

At the current rate of Chinese immigration into my country, perhaps China could insist they return home.😊

[@buttert5091]

lol

[@vinniechan]

Good idea

[@Archangelm127]

I'm having flashbacks to every failed game of "Banished" I ever played.

[@bluemountain4181]

The rows of empty houses, the fields left unworked, I know that feel

[@alifallah1954]

Nice one

[@richardbalboa7161]

China: "Let's clone people"

[@MaziarYousefi]

I have one answer to this problem, Robots.

[@BManStan1991]

It’s better than the West’s solution: mass immigration.

[@rowo175]

George Lipscomb well if u need a lot of robots u need people to repair it . Old thing dies new things appears

[@jimmyjohnsontheiv8980]

robots will NEVER EVER REPLACE SEX

[@yjiang750]

China's total population accounts for 18% of the world's population, and newborn babies only account for 10% of the world's population. I don't think there can be hundreds of millions of immigrants to solve the problem of raising the elderly.

[@nilah3335]

love your vids and your brain

[@ivanshuck3419]

China running out of people? India is the only country qualified to ask.

[@hauntologicalwittgensteini2542]

India will also decline by the end of the century

[@gotfan7743]

Not really. India has already hit replacement fertility rate at 2.2, India's population is now steady and only slowly increasing.

[@blades392]

They can just use the elderly as food at the infant farms

[@JulioMo]

Soilent green

[@hkonhelgesen]

Don`t give them ideas.

[@TheSilver2001]

According to Wikipedia, there are 50 million people in the Chinese diaspora aja the Overseas Chinese. They could try to get them to come back or if they were born abroad, come back to their ancestor's homeland. The advantage is this type of immigration wouldn't cause ethnic divisions and nativist resentment

[@HeadsFullOfEyeballs]

Even if they somehow convinced every single young person out of those 50 million to come "home", it'd be a drop in the bucket for a country of 1.4 billion people.

[@awesomebroke]

Raising a child is expensive 😭

[@hieptrancong4110]

Lazy young men

[@Titan-fk2fi]

@@hieptrancong4110 it's true though

[@pedrotiagoteixeira]

They can import scientists, engineers and doctors from Africa

[@douglassantet647]

Also alot of women

[@hkonhelgesen]

No. African migrants prefer Europe, Canada, Middle East, India, Korea, etc. They don`t flee to China.

[@woozy5953]

You know... I was very surprised when I found about about the one child policy, My parents gave birth to me in China, moved to America with my sister, and after 4 years I was brought to America. After researching about this topic a bit, (the one child policy) I found that chinese parents usually prefer males over females, due to financial reasons and to carry the surname. I really do feel like I have no other purpose to my parents other then what I wrote.

[@pincheguey1325]

The organ harvesting business is gonna get hurt.

[@aksassin]

why are you only using footage of Hong Kong?

[@arnoldaspusalotas4531]

NBA called and asked for a favour

[@derf2170]

Not allowed to film elsewhere without a government minder

[@easonchen6267]

Derf that’s North Korea

[@JL-hz5li]

A more frightening fact: of the 31 provinces in China, only 6 have fiscal surpluses and the other 25 are structurally in deep deficits RIGHT NOW when there’s still favorable demographic structure and “population dividends”. So massive transfer payments from the 6 provinces to the other 25 to keep things afloat.

[@blackfox1665]

When did nordvpn get hacked? Like a month ago or so

[@1Reevee]

Dude peter Zeihan, who you covered, called this years ago

[@90497646]

It's naive to assume population = economic potential and aged = burden. No western economists really understand why China's growth is so fast. The prevalent theories and trends based on western demographic economies offer little help in predicting the future of China. You need to understand the core social values of the Chinese civilization - ”尊老爱幼“ - respect the aged and care for the young. The aged Chinese grandparents are often doing the heavy lifting in taking care of their grandchildren by doing so they are contributing to the GDP but unaccounted for. I don't know how much this missing portion of the GDP is, but I guess the number would be bigger than a small country's economy.

[@UNRNetwork]

Does anybody know where he got the figure of Chinese debt being 3x its GDP? I've heard this statistic before but never been able to corroborate it.

[@hmrmdf]

Its called automation more and more workers world wide are replaced by programs and machines every year, ther will be no worker shortage but there will be shortages of finacialy viable consumer's.

[@martinmendl1399]

I’m waiting for the CCP to introduce the No Condom Policy

[@Wanoiyori]

It's karma from one child policy