Is inventory growth finally slowing?

[@joejacksonrealtor]

he is very informed in his field

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

Even in California , where the inventory picture is still abysmal...I see homes changing hands for less nowadays. Not a whole lot but it's noticeable and undeniable. So I just can't agree with all the National data that shows homes selling for the same price as 12 months ago. Arizona is cheaper than it was last year as well and Texas and Florida are even further over the hump. So, is the Northeast (which I don't track) so strong that it is holding up the National median by itself?

[@davidonewayticket3388]

I agree with you i thought it was just me here in california

[@joesixpack2878]

i'd be careful with what to wish for

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

@@joesixpack2878 Nobody is wishing for anything, but everyone should be aware (and prepared for) the traditional credit cycle.

[@nitroneonicman]

2023 actually started to crash but the Fed bailed out banks. You can see the effect this had in the data. Prices are only up relative to the dip last year. Flat relative to summer 2022.

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

@@nitroneonicman Bailing out the banks certainly kicked the can, but that doesn't put money in people's pockets so nothing has really changed.

[@sokratzmmf]

Inventory will increase in waves. People will de-list for winter and re-list in mass in the spring. Plus home builders and apartment developers are overproducing.

[@nitroneonicman]

It's not even a matter of de-listing. Listings are literally expiring.

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

There is an ocean of pent-up supply. People just don't realize it. A lot of people in the last two years said, nah, i won't sell right now, I will wait until prices come back to 2022 levels. At some point, probably 2025 all those people will be listing TOGETHER.

[@ebutuoy5088]

@CaptainCaveman1170 lol dude, you are so salty.

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

@@ebutuoy5088 If you say so but I'm just an old Gen Xer who understands data and doesn't want young people to get burned by this propped up market. Unfortunately many already did in the last two years.

[@AltosResearch]

haven't seen any evidence of relisting in mass! Yes lots of apartments have come on line but that's not true for the for sale houses generally.

[@Abdul-nt9uk]

This data is only reminding me that real estate trends are very local.

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

Yes, but but very few places are immune from the overall national trends in the long run.

[@cynthiastarks7161]

Mike - I think we need to see something under 6% for any real buyer or seller movement.

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

Good, that means buyers have finally wisened up.

[@nonexistent5030]

Lol under 6%. I'll just sit here with my popcorn and watch while ya'll run around confused nobody's biting.

[@nonexistent5030]

Try 4%... Oh wait that's never coming back!

[@MikeCalloway]

New builders already offer that

[@Ja56780]

@@MikeCallowayI agree, places like Florida have tons of new construction inventory, not far from large cities, and offering 4 percent rates. No one is giving in.

[@nonexistent5030]

Bubble Bubble Bubble Bubble... Pop!

[@raymond_sycamore]

Took my house OFF the market today! 60 days, no real offers. Listed for rent this morning, had three applications by dinner. Signing a lease and collecting deposits tomorrow. You guys don't want affordable housing. I had one, you didn't want it. ​ EDIT: The tenant fell through. Canceled on me. Right after I signed the damn lease.

[@nitroneonicman]

If it was really affordable someone would have bought it. Maybe you need to come back to reality.

[@EthanFlynn]

What price for sale? What rental rate? Would rent cover mortgage payment for sales price?

[@raymond_sycamore]

@@nitroneonicman I lowered the price $50k over 60 days. I was almost $100k under comps. I am in reality. Shut up.

[@raymond_sycamore]

@@EthanFlynn At the lowest I was at $165k more than affordable. Rented for $1,500 a month.

[@raymond_sycamore]

@@EthanFlynn There is no mortgage on this property. Total cash investment.

[@marcosalvarez9902]

This guy is lame. He wants inventory to be low for some reason

[@joejacksonrealtor]

He is very educated in his field

[@cynthiastarks7161]

Marco - Why do you think he wants inventory to be low. I just think he's reporting on what it is right now. I don't think much will change until interest rates decline substantially, but from everything I read and hear, we should not expect them to fall very much either this year or next.

[@marcosalvarez9902]

@@cynthiastarks7161 He stated in a recent video that “hopefully inventory stays low”

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

You have to understand that his clients want to ses increased sales volume and always rising prices. I think he is probably pretty neutral himself.

[@aliciahernandez6203]

he sells dat to realtors…realtors want more money

[@ebutuoy5088]

But it was supposed to crash bro?

[@MrPetercn]

He's not a "crash" guy to make you comfortable, He just tells the truth.

[@nonexistent5030]

In real terms or nominal?

[@LoganMohtashami]

Can I say hi to all my Housing Bubble Crash Friends from 2012-2024 Year 13 now, guys! Should you all try the Car industry?

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

Your comment is pretty insensitive to those who were tricked into buying at the frothy 2022 peak and now can't sell. There's currently more than a handful of people in that situation and history says that group is likely to expand. The housing market was flat and very anemic in 2017/18/19 and it was rolling over in 19 right before the great coastal equity eruption of 2020/21/22 arrived (caused by you know what!).

[@House_hacker_619]

@@CaptainCaveman1170what are you talking I bought my 2nd house in San Diego in August 2022 for 685k with rate of 4.375. Now the house is currently valued at 865k. Not only that the house had 2 ADUs studio currently rented and paying my monthly mortgage. Now I saved over 100k by not paying my mortgage. If I listened to these crashbros I would’ve wasted 100k+ on rent, missing out on low rate and rental ADUs, 20%+ in equity and it will cost more to buy now and to build ADUs because of higher price, rate and hardly any cash flow properties

[@peterbedford2610]

Captainwrong

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

@@House_hacker_619 I am talking about the many people in Arizona, Florida and Texas who are currently underwater. California has been an outlier yes, especially San Diego.

[@LoganMohtashami]

@@CaptainCaveman1170 That is false. Existing home sales were rising in 2019 from bottom end print in January; home sales broke out before COVID-19 data, that is in the data line, the fact that you had no idea that was the case shows you have never tracked housing data before But if you want to debate me on spaces I would love to take you on in front of everyone so they can listen to your housing takes and written forecasts in the past 5 years. What say you? Are you up for it?

[@500stoney]

It’s not just the interest rates. As that 818,000 revision of unemployment by the completely BS BLS report showed, that 4.3% unemployment rate is COMPLETE BS as well