"Is there not just a chance he'll bolt up?" - Strong views on City Of Troy | Betfred Derby preview

Some punchy views here from Angus McNae and George Baker as they look ahead to the 2024 Betfred Derby at Epsom!
Will City Of Troy be able to bounce back from his disappointing Guineas run? The pair discuss Aidan O'Brien's charge in depth and provide some interesting thoughts and theories on whether he will show his true colours or not plus also talk about some of the other leading contenders in the Epsom Classic, live on Racing TV on Saturday, June 1.
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 👌
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[@wontbelongnow5567]

Aiden knows more about city of troy than any punter and pundit. So you have to respect his opinion on his super star as he says about him. Time will tell , and I ghink when he wins you will all be saying I knew he would win deep down.

[@markperryman2311]

Give the race a miss, not necessary to have a bet, ...

[@globaloffice3214]

Why not - Lots of value to be had with C.o.T a ludicrous price. It's punters dream this year.

[@Paddy-vc3fl]

I rhink the lads are right. If he simply hadn't trained on he'd probably have been third or fourth. The way he folded suggests that there was something wrong on the day. So redemption is possible, but now he has to come back from whatever was wrong PLUS prove that he has trained on. I hope he does. I know the champion 2-y-o always gets talked up, but I was really convinced by this guy. He's a runner in the Derby as of now, but I won't fall down dead in amazement if he never makes it to the track again. We'll see.

[@nickkershaw1685]

I backed COT for the guineas and after that for the derby because I trust Aiden

[@michaelflynn5123]

You not a gambler are you! ? O’Brien had run 27 runners 3 winners before the guineas ! When was the last time he. Had a 3 year old winner first time out! Fuck my memory not that good ! Wouldn’t say aiden knows either

[@nc3music920]

@@michaelflynn5123 O'brien has had something like 17 guineas wins and with every single one of them it was their first run of the season.

[@Martin.Lewis..]

@@michaelflynn5123 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

[@Martin.Lewis..]

@@michaelflynn5123 racing really is not for you kid..

[@nightowl7459]

I wish these do called "experts" would stop giving out false information, City Of Troy's dam (Together Forever) didn't win the Oaks, although she is a full sister to a Oaks winner (Forever Together) she never won as a three year old although she did run a creditable race when beaten 4/½ lengths in the Irish Oaks, he's the second person who has said that.

[@BrianPeterSimpson]

City of Troy will stay it's in his pedigree

[@nightowl7459]

@@BrianPeterSimpson It's very possible, it's not definite.

[@johnmichaelclarke78]

And your acting like a pundit

[@nightowl7459]

@@johnmichaelclarke78 Stating facts, unless your tiny mind can prove otherwise?

[@alexhong1728]

Unfortunately ordinary people trust "experts‘’, which makes this world sick. Most of the commenters now on racing is just a superficial form line guy. If you have solid experience to dig deep on the entire horse gait and conformation analysis, you would always have concern on his front legs action in which the protraction angles make him waste time and energy in the air. His full brother Bertineli is more severe than him that is inherited from his dam for sure while forever together are much better free of this defect.

[@jamesbarryobrien3514]

You cant do what City of Troy did last year and still not be able to do it to sme extent this year ,but he didn't do it at all to any extent in the guineas . He even started to go back at the 4 furlong marker ,whilst the rest of the pack were maintainig their strong gallop . So he just wasn't fit enough . When you have what you think could be another Frankel in the yard ,the handlers go quare and honest interaction could be found wanting . But after the Guineas you can be sure O'Brien personally would have taken direct charge of his training . We all know how humble O'Brien is but he is also a very clever man and they don't call him The Maestro for nothing . The only other scenario that could be a problem is an unknown health issue 💚

[@whodouthinkuare]

Ridiculous comment. If there was a health issue O Brien would not risk running him. Get back in your 4x4 box caveman.

[@jamesvaughan1590]

So you basically dont have a clue.

[@globaloffice3214]

Use your eyes. There is something niggling him

[@jamesvaughan1590]

@@globaloffice3214 Would not be biggest surprise if did not make the Derby, was retired and 'surprise injury' announced to end career. Then usual Coolmore statement. "He was a horse with so much speed and class, Aidan believes one of the best ever trained" etc etc etc

[@jamesbarryobrien3514]

@@globaloffice3214 possibly .

[@craigpope8580]

It's to early to say if this horse is a flop the guineas was only his 4th race of his career amd his first rub of the season aidan stated after he hadn't done much at home with him because he thought his raw talent was enough clearly it wasn't I expect to see a completely different horse in the derby

[@chimpzilla]

City of Troy’s dam didn’t win the oaks. She won the fillies mile. City of Troy’s dam is together forever, not Forever Together. People need to stop saying that, I even heard Aidan say it in an interview!

[@tomojay28]

Yep; none of CoT's siblings nor the dam herself trained on as 3yos; furthermore Justify is hardly an established top stallion...he had a phenomenal 2nd half of 2023 but all his principle runners from last year have failed to deliver thus far in 2024.

[@Pmrace1960]

the dam of COT run her best speed figure by far in the musidora so she certainly trained on and probably failed to stay 12f in her other 2 runs

[@Pmrace1960]

at epsom she looked to have every chance 2f but didnt seem to get home though any horse who runs below form at epsom you can excuse..............and at the curragh she was given an awful ride from the front by heffernan

[@tomojay28]

@@Pmrace1960 I suppose definitions of "train on" can vary; Together Forever failed in a Group 3 (albeit with a penalty) in her 3yo debut & along with the winner of that race, bombed in the Epsom Oaks; then was abandoned in the Irish Oaks by the first call rider in favor of an inexperienced runner while seemingly used as a pacesetter in what proved to be her swan song after just 3 starts at 3; Group 1 quality at 2 but decidedly below Group 1 at 3 while displaying stamina limitations none of which augurs well for CoT...

[@lorristan]

I will be backing all of Obriens horses apart from COT.. Over the years I have done very well by backing the second third and fourth string. I even got 100/1 about Forever Together when she won as well as punting Wings of Eagles and Serpentine and Antony Van Dyke. So it does pay to factor in Aidens other runners.

[@pgreed100]

I agree. Diego Velasquez could be another example. He has been babyish in his races up to now but the extra half a mile could be tailor made for him

[@bigshug8576]

🎺🎺🎺

[@Pmrace1960]

@@pgreed100 french derby

[@pgreed100]

If a horse trained by Burke or Beckett or Balding or Hannon had been a top 2yo but then flopped in the Guineas, would they be 7/4 for the Derby?

[@deepclectic3529]

NO

[@michaelflynn5123]

But then again O’Brien is under the illusion he can get a horse ready first time out ! Every real punter knows that

[@nc3music920]

@@michaelflynn5123 Every one of his guineas winners have been with their first run of the season. He is certainly not delusional. He is a genius. Its you who are delusional my friend

[@ascott6328]

how many horses win a derby with there last win being over 7f??

[@nightowl7459]

The only one I can think of is Lammtarra, but he didn't race until he ran in the Derby.

[@Paddy-vc3fl]

Workforce, New Approach, Sir Percy, Dr Devious, Generous .....

[@seamusfallon3104]

He won his only 2 year old start​@@nightowl7459

[@colinanderson7384]

@@nightowl7459 Lammtarra's first race of his career wasn't the Derby.

[@nightowl7459]

@@colinanderson7384 Sorry, my wording, he made his three year old debut in the Derby after winning the seven furlongs Washington Singer at Newbury, his only race a two year old.

[@unitedrealtalk5087]

I think Aidan and cool more have got to be aiming horse for Breeders cup classic so guineas might be and looks like horses first trip outside stalls all winter.

[@brianng2335]

I remember before the Guineas, Coolmore released a video showing COT track work, it was quite obvious that he was not good that day. Then Guineas was history now. I did not buy AOB’s explanation about his heart rate or something like that. It was obvious bullshit. Now Coolmore has posted another COT track work on X. This time COT looks far better, relax and right. I imagine is it possible that during the spring in Ireland, there were lots of rain, track condition was too bad and AOB withheld their horses from serious track work and made them vulnerable at their first starts. Perhaps AOB said he treated COT as god meant that way. Recent records show that Coolmore horses have improved result at second starts than their first starts. While stamina is an unknown territory, given his full brother could step up to 2400m and his run was not bad in HK, and AOB is very keen to run COT at Epsom (despite Coolmore to promote Justify is the main reason), I think COT has still every chance to run close on derby day, even if he does not win. Like Auguste Rodin, AOB still has faith on COT.

[@globaloffice3214]

Los Angeles has more potential

[@Bix21-z3f]

Portland..out the back all the way at Sandown,easy race.

[@johnras5]

The Nap

[@brianng2335]

But Los Angelas does not have speed

[@Bix21-z3f]

@@brianng2335 That would be my worry.

[@brianng2335]

@@Bix21-z3f the horses he beat in last 2 starts are not good too. I think AOB and Ryan Moore are not stupid 😂

[@rosskeenan9117]

The price is short enough so what price would be if he bolted up in 2000gunnieas 1/3

[@fawltyoldboybasil.2178]

Given AOBs Derby record, it would appear that the punters have kept faith with City of Troy. I have my doubts though (happy to be proven wrong) - the performance in the 2000 Guineas was abysmal. The subsequent post-mortem had O'Brien/Ryan Moore talking about the horse's temperament at the start - not something that exactly calms the old nerves when considering the upcoming Epsom contest. It would have been a deal more reassuring if City of Troy had shown some of his 2yo form in at least contesting the minor places at Newmarket.

[@MichaelWilliams-696]

Every chance he'll win the derby easily if he stays the last couple of furlongs, there is no way he can wallop hateem etc (twice) like that and then get beat by them 25 length and it be "true form". Id imagine that 2/1 will look a big price come next Saturday imo.

[@johnsonkevin1]

I don't care if he wins by 20L. 2/1 is a ridiculous price . Anyone considering backing him at that price needs to give the game up.

[@MichaelWilliams-696]

@@johnsonkevin1 you've just highlighted in your own words there why you're a proper mug punter.

[@johnsonkevin1]

@@MichaelWilliams-696 How so?

[@MichaelWilliams-696]

Intelligence clearly isn't your strong point is it buddy, "I don't care if it wins by 20 lengths at 2/1" When it does win by 3 lengths at 5/4 I suggest you give up the game.

[@johnsonkevin1]

@MichaelWilliams-696 Whenever I hear "his price will look big if he wins" I know I am in the presence of the deluded. Every winning horse's price will look big AFTER the event. The only way to make money long term at this game is beating the odds. If you think that 2/1 is a bigger price than he should be right now, please explain to me how you have come to that conclusion. He was a good 2 year, not outstanding as some try to make out. Look at who he beat. It is not high class form. He completely bombed out on his first start as a 3 year old. His running style does not scream out as a 12f horse. So please explain to me how you make him a 5/4 shot???

[@Myles-Sherlock]

Thumbnail looks even better now 😄

[@patrickwinn9700]

This is not a Derby horse. Champions don't need a million excuses. Great horses can win any anywhere at any time on any going. History is replete with 'super horses' that didn't make it.

[@nc3music920]

Yikes, what a comment that turned out to be

[@coleslack8826]

@patrickwinn9700 OOPS😂

[@Easynow788]

I bet your face was hilarious as he romped home with ease 😂😂😂

[@jamesbarryobrien3514]

This time he will be a different horse

[@globaloffice3214]

Last?

[@drewponticorvo278]

Made this fella look daft.

[@janetmarshall7171]

It's Good To Argue And Air Out Your Differences!! Either City Of Troy Will Have The Goods To Win The Derby Or Aidan Needs To Stop Racing Him And Give Him A Long Rest!!

[@vikumsenanayake3245]

Hahaha..another dumb comment. You really don’t know how racing works aren’t you?

[@philipmurray3974]

In the preliminaries of the guineas he looked ordinary..to my untrained eye..he hadnt matured much over the winter..and he showed too much speed over 6f at two too be a strong stayer at 1m.4f.... 2s is way too short...lots will want to lay him...on the day u will get 3s and bits of 7/2...so if u fancy him don't back him till the day of the race.

[@Hanamy7777]

Los Angeles has to be the value though 13/2 is long gone. It wouldn't be the first time Moore made the wrong choice.

[@rosskeenan9117]

He was talked up as the new frankel of ballydolyle he has to be a machine to come even close to that complimet

[@robertguildford]

Ifs, buts, might be's. Performance is all you can judge on.

[@SuperHarun007]

He will not stay the derby trip. He will not place. By the time he reaches the tattenham corner Ryan Moore will be hard at work

[@captain007x]

Ha,ha!

[@JohnDoe-il7dp]

Ok😅😅😅 clown

[@lockoshocko]

😂 you have all the qualities for a UTV racing pundit

[@Martin.Lewis..]

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

[@jamesbarryobrien3514]

I ddtect a definite anti- O'Brien bias on Racing tv comments . Logic suffers when we cross the pond one feels . But one also feels that there is something not quite right somewhere ,in Tipperary . I can tell you one thing the Tipp. Hurling team this year are useless 💚

[@seadrifter8975]

He got out nicely in the guineas, and the stalls excuse is strange ? Ghostwriter fell out of the stalls and nearly hit the deck after 100 yards and finished 4th, lol . More likely the other coolmore horse will run better in the derby .

[@Greg-zp3fh]

Bunch of yes men on here knew the troy would shut them all up

[@trevormeeks4084]

Doesent matter what price troy is he has nothing to beat obrians horses will be 1234 in the derby the rest will be running at cheltenham in a couple of years lump on city of troy

[@tomojay28]

I predict after the Derby that the City of Troy comparisons to Auguste Rodin will stop & comparisons to One Cool Cat and Johannesburg will start...

[@afrikaishome4862]

Well this didn’t age well 😂

[@JohnDoe-il7dp]

😅😅😅 clown

[@Martin.Lewis..]

What a tool 🤡😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@Martin.Lewis..]

Please do ‘predict’ more.. 😂😂

[@tomojay28]

@@Martin.Lewis.. 🤣Sure thing, and I'll also make sure to delete the wrong predictions like @Martin.Lewis after the Tattersalls Gold Cup last week🤣🤣

[@Gazowen-qz5xy]

City of Troy is a cert but bellum justum is a decent a price ambient friendly im not sure on economics is the one if they suppliment him

[@globaloffice3214]

130 rated Arazi did not train on.There was something physically wrong with him. Possibly the same with C.O.T.

[@jamesvaughan1590]

Think Arazi ended up only winning a group 3 as a 3yr old

[@ShannonWard-hz4lm]

Loss angle’s wins the derby

[@chrisbrader7720]

George is a very good judge and a very knowledgeable horseman.Ambiente Friendly for me all day.

[@mickspencer2030]

Can’t believe they sent him to the 2000 undercooked.As for the Derby not proven at the trip and when they put the gun to his head we’ll find out on all evidence got to be Ambiente Friendly come on Rab!

[@davidmcmahon5234]

Derby result last few years have been upside down outsiders is the way to go l think 🧐 you just dont know epsom throws up very funny results has done for years and years 😊

[@martinorme3309]

Live in ballydoyle the stable lads locally are mad on him

[@ascott6328]

Native trail, Pinatubo, Too darn hot...its normal for top 2yo to peak in there first year.

[@nightowl7459]

There's been many more too.

[@jamesvaughan1590]

Do you remember TENBY? Top 1992 2 yr old. Won listed race then the Dante. Was seen as the greatest certainty for the Derby. Flopped, Eclipse flopped. Never won another race after Dante. Excuse for Derby "Other horses caught up with him physically"

[@nightowl7459]

@@jamesvaughan1590 True, I think Tenby was a good example, he ran some half decent races as a three year old but was never the Champion he promised to be, Alhearth was another similar sort.

[@jamesvaughan1590]

@@nightowl7459 In the space of three weeks (Dante to Derby) is reckoned others developed psssed him. Knew a guy who had £100 or £200 for Derby after his first win. Got 25/1. Saw him couple weeks after Derby, he told me offered his mate a grand at 2/1 , think Tenby was 4/5 day of race. Best decision he ever made lol

[@nightowl7459]

@@jamesvaughan1590 Yeah, he still had some ability but just couldn't dominate his division as he could the previous season, my uncle backed a horse called Lear Fan of Guy Harwoods for the Guinness at big odds, he looked very good, unfortunately it was the usual thing, he was beaten in El Gran Senor's Guineas, was a good horse in his own right but just not as good as he was as a two year old.

[@andrewwilliams4644]

An absolutely terrible renewal on paper. The Oaks loves bang average also..... for me I cannot take 2/1 against City of Troy. If AOB turns him around it will be the greatest achievement of his career. Just see him as way too fizzy for 12f. Ancient Wisdom would be my selection if the ground is soft. On better ground Los Angeles and Dancing Gemini are more likely. Diego Velasquez at a big price may run well.

[@tonycalnan5329]

If he wins the Derby they stopped him in the guineas

[@pergotfredsen4681]

CoT lives up to his name. Deceitful

[@paulshelley7664]

I wish you would note thar 'city of troy' has not grown much since last season. Aidan O'brien is not a god and obviously he has to talk this horse up.

[@BrianPeterSimpson]

Ryan Moore believes in him that's good enough for me

[@BrianPeterSimpson]

He will win City of Troy

[@trevormeeks4084]

Dancing gemini will be a top hurdler in future

[@BrianPeterSimpson]

These horse's aren't the class of City of Troy

[@fawltyoldboybasil.2178]

Breeding means sweet fa if it's not backed up on the track. City of Troy will go to Stud but, if he is a total bust on the track as a 3YO, his commercial value will sink like a stone - that's not what Coolmore wants to have happen.

[@jamesvaughan1590]

@@fawltyoldboybasil.2178 Captain Obvious has spoken.

[@fawltyoldboybasil.2178]

@@jamesvaughan1590 Aaawww! Diddums - someone hide your pacifier?

[@ShannonWard-hz4lm]

City of Troy won’t take to Epsom track to fast he won’t settle

[@ColinWilson-j9i]

The derby winner this year will be big odds

[@deletebilderberg]

Indeed. City of Troy is 2/1 and should be 1/3.

[@martyndavid2094]

Aiden is a crook , back whatever he does fancy

[@tomhurcombe2185]

Wont stay, hasnt progressed from 2 to 3 enough. Absolutely shocking price. Question is what to back as the three of the best trial winners are all not running due to injury, death and haggas feeling economics wont like the track.

[@davidmcmahon5234]

Hundred percent is a shocking price hundred percent not for me anyway is he a super star ⭐ O Brien thinks he is but he says this every year master trainer we all know that two two one shocking price

[@JohnDoe-il7dp]

Oookay😅😅

[@tomhurcombe2185]

@@JohnDoe-il7dp big man commenting after the race lol

[@BrianPeterSimpson]

Plus Aidan said he ran him to fresh and he had a problem in the stools banged his head

[@Eddie_Booth]

You probably have problems with you’re Stools too 💩

[@fawltyoldboybasil.2178]

'Stalls' not 'Stools'.😀

[@Paddy-vc3fl]

As the lads pointed out in this video, he wasn't in the stalls long enoughto 'get upset' ... but he was in there long enough to bang his head and that could be a legitimate excuse imo. The run does need need explaining. 'Not trained on' doesn't cover it.

[@galdessa1]

@@Paddy-vc3fl He didn't bang his head, when he came out there was no traction in his stride, he laboured to keep up with them, maybe just an off day.

[@_jcoop_]

Macduff wins hard held don't worry

[@pauloconnor5101]

Can't imagine he will come back from that guineas. Looked awful in the parade ring and had nothing on the track.

[@lockoshocko]

U wouldn't be related to the Cumani,s😅

[@martinmiller6984]

Auguste rodin part two watch him win easily.

[@jamesvaughan1590]

Guessing then you have had a massive bet on for the Derby since you are so certain

[@tomojay28]

The comparison to Auguste Rodin is shaky at best; AR was consider a Derby horse from the get-go, not a Guineas horse; furthermore he made no impact whatsoever in his Guineas, it was a true non-effort; CoT on the other hand was always a Guineas horse & 'maybe' could stretch for the Derby; instead he bombed unceremoniously at Newmarket despite showing his trademark early speed against many of the same horses he was brow-beating at 2; now we are supposed to draw a line through that race AND also forget about the real stamina concerns that he has even if he came to Epsom off a Guineas victory 🤔

[@jamesvaughan1590]

@@tomojay28 People were speculating COT being a triple crown horse. That would indicate a belief that 12f would be best trip and that 8f and 14.5f won by natural ability and class

[@Dhu07440]

Last year I bet 200 pounds on August Random. The last winning horse came, Hukum. I hope this year August will win.

[@martinmiller6984]

@jamesvaughan1590 No I haven't had a bet because i believe 3-1 is a ridiculous price after his guinneas flop but i wouldn't be surprised if he won the derby just like auguste rodin did last year after a poor run! Also it's not the strongest looking derby!

[@jdigne1879]

That’s the worst derby field in at least 20 years. I think COT can obviously still do it, but needs to return to form.

[@michaelpearson3002]

I wouldnt back city of troy in the derby he wont relax to head strong all the excuses never accept the way he ran in 2000 guineas 2/1 joke by timid bookmakers yet again awful odds

[@mickspencer2030]

The real COT turns up he’s still gonna get turned over Ambiente Friendly 😊

[@bigcajones9070]

Excuses are ridiculous 😂

[@eliotdavey4927]

How many times do the y say obriens a masterwhen he holds all records for having the most losers in all classics