Is your Betfair trading profitable? Or are you being fooled by randomness?

Betfair trading profitably over the long term is all about having a positive expectancy, not about winning.
That may sound slightly odd, but getting a strategy that has a high winning strike rate is relatively easy. Getting profitable is a completely different thing.
When you actively trade a Betfair market you can start winning almost immediately. But this could mask the fact that you have no skill and are just producing random trading results.
In this video, we examine how you would work out if you are trading profitably or where it's just luck, or what is expected of the market.
#betfairtrading #profitable #winning

[@MrConrad1990]

Best video yet that I've seen on your channel Peter. Thanks

[@BobbyDazzler490]

A wonderful tip on trading Peter, does make me think about my trades in general thanks for the video 👍

[@niko73le]

Thanks Peter. I will start going down the low strike rate road a bit more now.

[@johnristheanswer]

Facinating stuff. This would suggest virtually everyone can " nearly " succeed - the frustration we have all felt , but by a little tweaking they could be a real success , if only they could find a tiny edge ?

[@alexh2292]

I'm starting to see lots parallels in sports trading and trading in the financial world. Having discipline, cutting losses and racing winners and the psychological aspect of trading are themes that come up a lot.

[@theguy092]

Great video, I've been trading tennis a while and making a consistent profit. It is my favourite sport, i watch it regularly and i used to play. Now the tennis season is over for a month I want to start getting in to trading horses however my knowledge is limited. My question is- Do you think it is essential to know a lot about horse racing to be profitable or can you make profit by just using certain strategies. A lot of my tennis trading is pre-match but comes from knowledge of the players and sensing value and the odds then usually drop.

[@gccbas]

I got the idea Peter :) That's what I'm doing in the inplays in horse racing :)

[@kolins3733]

?

[@rhysjaggar4677]

My approach to things is to keep a log of every trade and compare total successes vs 'expected number of successes' based on odds traded. This is obviously most easy to calculate if you use open bets rather than greening out. It's a pretty good correlation with P+L. If you look at your 'percentage edge' it usually lines up quite closely with ROI over a reasonable period of time.

[@alexmajoni]

Hi Peter, thanks for the good information. Keep it up!! and got a question for you unrelated to this video. So u put 80k on 800/1 (not me)Leicester to win title and odds now at 20/1 would you cash out? Also can you get the liquidity to come out? On betdaq

[@lafemmeanglaise]

A really great video Peter. How could anyone down vote it?! 🤷‍♀️

[@alexh2292]

Caan Berry?? 😂

[@grahambeyer6254]

So how do you reduce your losses and/or increase your strike rate? That is the question.

[@barrygallagher3306]

Great video

[@indianninja1423]

Correct Peter last week I invreased my Bank from 35 to 75 and next week i blew it to 28. Sometimes trading comes so easily. And next time it seems impossible to achieve even a penny of profit

[@Gracievision]

Really good advice.

[@betangeltv]

Thank you.

[@muhammadshirazshakil4249]

Any way of getting one on one consulting from the team.Sometimes I miss stuff in emails

[@Caprica1977]

Good video. If you had to pick 3 items of data, which would you regard as highly important, in order to reduce those losses?

[@mrniyi]

I'm sure I've made one or two comments on this video in the past. I remember when I first watched this video. It was quite hard to follow along because I didn't understand most of what was being said. However, overtime I have found myself referring to this video and other related videos linked to it. And I have done so quite frequently. And every time I re-watch this video it keeps getting clearer and clearer. There's a question I would like to ask. Perhaps you may have already done a video and maybe I might ask this on the forum too. How long does it take you to figure out base rate? I thing I can figure it out quite easily when you are talking about straight bets. But when you are looking at a number of ticks, I reckon you would need quite a bit of time to get that value. I'm asking because I also want to see if I can carry this into Forex trading?

[@quench100]

How long do you test a strategy for before you have the confidence to use real money?

[@mikebasketball11]

Hi Peter, been watching for a couple years now, thank you! Have you read the book 'Fooled by randomness'? Would you recommend any other books akin to this one? Best wishes from Australia

[@niko73le]

thinking fast and slow is good

[@grahambeyer6254]

Can you give us the base rates for all market types pretty please Peter?

[@chrissyb3676]

Fascinating video, feel like it was made for me. There are plenty ways to improve the strike rate and gain an edge. Ive managed to get mine up to over 97% which over time on a similar system which would produce profit over time. My results from August 2018 show this and it's still going strong. The issue with Lay to Back is the larger losses but there are ways to deal with this to counter it too.

[@Garycarlyle]

I need to get 4 screens set up like that. I have 3 already but they are not all the same size. Would be better to have them arranged like you have.

[@mediapc4747]

I prefer 3 monitors to 4. 4 gives me neck ache looking up and down, not so much with 3 looking left and right.

[@gomer2841]

you sound like Brian Fantana, "60% of the time, it works every time"

[@grahambeyer6254]

If you say you use a low strike rate strategy why do your P/Ls show winning with a high strike rate showing not many losses?

[@chrishill648]

Can you do a video on how is best to keep a record or log on a spreadsheet with formulas etc ? Maybe there is one but I haven’t found it thanks

[@betangeltv]

There are some specialist spreadsheets on the forum that will analyse your data for you.

[@robsting5414]

how to run automation to check the base rate for the strategy? and what re the strategies?

[@betangeltv]

You need to think of it the other way around. What's the strategy, then trade it at random to understand what hurdle you need to overcome.

[@born1033]

When Betangel in Italy on betfair.it ?? We've only Fairbot and traderline..TY

[@bigshug8576]

I've been slaying it on the horses but losing on other sports I don't know if I should study the other sports harder or just leave them alone

[@betangeltv]

It often makes sense to stick with something for a while so the variability irons out. All sports are seasonal to some extent, so it's difficult to get a real picture unless you have traded an entire season.

[@bigshug8576]

@@betangeltv I don't know if it's just the fact that I enjoy horse racing more than the others

[@kirilmihaylov1934]

@@betangeltv and very fast moving.... especially football...teams change coaches , results change all the time....you have to follow the games all the time which requires a lot of time....

[@alanhaine644]

Another superb video. Thanks Peter. Aines88

[@grahambeyer6254]

So how do you improve on the base rate? How do you find ways to improve on it?

[@betangeltv]

The main way is to strike out errors, finding situations where it's most likely to go wrong.

[@grahambeyer6254]

@@betangeltv Have you got any examples on this? that you could show us.

[@JayJay-tm9gx]

Peter can I ask, what strategy do u use, £10 W £10 L £10 W £5 L £10 W £ 20 L Or does it depend on days markets u trade Thanks in advance

[@betangeltv]

Every market and strategy has a different strike rate. So you can't just set what profit you want to make, you need to understand the market base rate and influence things from there.

[@mrniyi]

How do we approach managing the losses

[@mrniyi]

Scratch that! You actually answered it in the video

[@rarecockneyguvnor4945]

Peterdo you do more than one trade a Race ?

[@betangeltv]

Yes, on the big races often more than one runner.

[@panagiotismaris2775]

peter web and nassim taleb and marcus aurelius and you are sorted

[@malcolmwasher2308]

Records are good u gotta keep ur bets in a spreadsheet or on paper

[@rubeng4833]

Heya Mr Webb, can you please add payment options like PayPal or Sofort? A Lot more people will be able to subscribe to your software. €€€€€

[@betangeltv]

We can accept Pay Pal, please contact support if you would like to use it.

[@cricketqueen3307]

hi dear sir. how can i contect u?....

[@betangeltv]

I get a huge amount of correspondence, so your first point of contact would be my support team.

[@cricketqueen3307]

@@betangeltv i am big fan .i am from bangladesh.....sir pls. tips of cricket

[@stuartgailey8096]

8

[@thescallytrader]

I guarantee if you trade at random over 28 days you will lose more than you win. Looking well Peter new Hair cut and a tan...been anywhere nice?