ISRAEL | Secretly Battling Iran?

On 28 January 2023, what appears to have been a drone strike took place against a weapons factory in Isfahan, Iran. While there was relatively little international coverage of the attack, at least at first, speculation quickly grew that Israel had been behind the operation (although other immediate suspects included Ukraine, Azerbaijan and even Saudi Arabia). However, while Iran has now formally blamed Israel for what it has called a "cowardly attack", it has nevertheless played down the incident - arguing that it managed to shoot down two of the drones and that a third had merely done minor damage with no casualties. Meanwhile, Israel has yet to openly accept responsibility for the incident.
This raises the question as to why the response has been so low key? In truth, it plays out against a history of covert confrontation between the two countries - a confrontation that has often been called a cold war or "shadow war". While Israel and Iran enjoyed good relations for many decades, and even had some significant ties after the Iranian Revolution, since the mid-1980s the relationship has completely collapsed over a range of issues, including Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon. Developing nuclear weapons, Iran has vowed to destroy the Jewish state. Since then, Israel and Iran have engaged in a covert confrontation. This has involved proxies in Gaza and Lebanon (Hamas and Hezbollah), assassinations, bombings, cyber attacks and now, seemingly, drones. In this sense, the latest incident fits a wider pattern of a serious, but nevertheless clandestine, conflict that's been fought in the shadows and which neither side wants to escalate. But as Russia deepens its ties to Iran over Ukraine, could the latest incident indicate that the Iran-Israel conflict is now set to intensify?
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:38 Israel-Iran: A Covert Conflict
02:06 Israel-Iran Relations, 1948-1979
03:33 Israel-Iran Relations, 1979-Present
06:01 January 2023 Drone Attack on Iran
06:52 Did Israel Really Attack Iran?
09:26 Why Hasn’t Israel Claimed Responsibility?
11:11 Will Iran Retaliate?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
Foreign Ministry | Islamic Republic of Iran
en.mfa.ir
Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs
www.gov.il/en/departments/min...
Israel Defense Forces
www.idf.il/en/
Iran Letter to the UN Blaming Israel
newyork.mfa.ir/files/Survey/2...
Under Netanyahu, Israel’s Ukraine Policy Will Still Be ‘Made in Syria’
www.worldpoliticsreview.com/i...
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DISCLAIMERS
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- Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel and will be at no additional cost to you.
#Israel #Iran #Conflict

[@JamesKerLindsay]

So, this was a very strange incident. There was very little reporting about it. (I'd be keen to know if you had heard about it?) More to the point, do you think this is the start of a more serious escalation between Iran and Israel, perhaps tied to events in Ukraine? As ever, I look forward to hearing your thoughts and comments. Also, please do take a look at World Politics Review. It really is excellent and their support really helps the channel. (Also, I published an article with them this week! So if you want to know about this weekend’s Cyprus elections, you know where to go!) www.wpr.pub/jkl

[@markdowding5737]

With the most right-wing government in Israel's history, I believe things will inevitably escalate but never to the point of a full military confrontation. Israel will do more of these surgical attacks while not directly confirming them while Iran will prop up its support for any group that opposes Israel. More interestingly, in my opinion, is if the close ties that Israel has with Azerbaijan will lead Iran to view the latter as a major threat and as a consequence prop up its support towards Armenia.

[@QuizmasterLaw]

You're at least a month or two behind the curve on this one (six months is more exact). Can confirm. Yes, Teheran IS in the gunsights. Smile!

[@bilic8094]

I heard about it from ryan mcbeth but it's strange how silent everyone was about the attack even Iran usually they instantly hit the streets wanting revenge.

[@yashsingh5563]

SPECULATION TIME! Israel operation based from Azerbaijan (esp with recent embassy attack) with US signoff (Iran aid to Russia) Mutual interest moment On Iran's side, they don't want to be seen fighting many strong enemies at once, and so also have an incentive to understate damage (until they can actually respond effectively)

[@winstonmaraj8029]

I heard of it on Twitter from my Ukrainian friends.

[@second2none914]

Burkina Faso recently evicted the French troops from their country following in their neighbour Malis footsteps. A video on the topic of French influence and anti-French sentiment in the region could be interesting.

[@the0ne809]

Yup. Meanwhile, many have Russian flags and believe in Russian propaganda. Not much will change besides the Wagner group having operations there, sadly.

[@hughjass1044]

Yes, including France's seeming obsession with rebuilding its African colonial empire.

[@wamingo]

.. or keeping russia/china out?

[@groovinhooves]

With many necessary and interesting sidebars into "Toyota Wars" in another country not far from there.

[@tomstory8502]

Beginning of the end of Western imperialism. Prepare for the rise of China.

[@redjacc7581]

to say something public would make Iran look weak. This proxy war has been going on for years between these 2 countries.

[@4Usuality]

I'd always wondered about their relationship, thank you for the video!

[@FredoRockwell]

My first reaction was, I didn't know this had happened! Then as I watched the video, I started realizing how weird it is (although understandable) that Ukraine has to be considered a possible suspect. It just shows how badly Iran has managed its foreign policy in the last year that its list of potential enemies has expanded into regions where normally Iran wouldn't be a country that was considered a factor. It's one thing to be isolationist, but it's another to actively create new enemies for no real gain. I'm assuming Russia has some sort of leverage over Iran to get them to sell the drones, but if so then Iran is paying the price for having so few friends. Also, great video as always!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much Fredo. It really is a very odd case, in all sorts of ways. I obviously think that Israel did it, but it is fascinating to think that it ties together a lot of rather interesting threads. It was probably done with some US help (and almost certainly a nod of agreement), and may have been a way to signal some support to the West of Ukraine without antagonising Russia too openly, and it may have been launched from Azerbaijan (perhaps allowed by Baku as a thank you for Israel's support against Armenia, which is supported by Iran). I can see why some people are perhaps getting a bit nervous about the way that various conflicts now seem to be spilling over onto each other, and what this might mean. The fact that NorthKorea is even getting pulled into Ukraine is worrying!

[@UnknownSend3r]

Iran isn’t an isolationist by choice, it’s being actively isolated by the west and it’s allies.

[@neilnelson7603]

Believe me, Iran is not worried of Ukraine being an enemy. NATO countries and its European allies in the Eastern front have all directly or indirectly wedged war on Islamic countries before, through the USA invasions ofcourse. So, Ukraine isn't as innocent as you perceive them to be. Everybody have blood on their hands here.

[@questworldmatrix]

Iran's not an isolationist. You isolated it. All because they wouldn't let you have their oil.

[@likemike6107]

@@questworldmatrix It's not even their oil though. It became their oil after they invaded the resource rich land of Arab Ahwaz in 1905, with help of the British.

[@harukrentz435]

Fantastic coverage. Thank you.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much! I really appreciate it.

[@pouriajafarikia65]

Great video as always! I would love to see more Iran focused videos!

[@hugodesrosiers-plaisance3156]

Absolutely one of your best videos so far, I think. The incident itself is so multi-faceted and touches on so many other issues, seriously fascinating. Great work on this one. My personal feeling is that it may well be a mix of all the options you mentionned: Israel is well known for its ability to carry out surgical precision air-strikes, they're actually genuinely impressive in that regard; since they wanted a target, they may have thought, why not help Ukraine while they're at it; a new airport recently opened in Azerbaijan with no civilian flights to or from it being listed anywhere, and the Azeris have been known to harbor Israeli airplanes, so the attack being launched from Azerbaijan is definitely plausible. This is truly a fascinating case.

[@MrMalmir]

You Saxons pay for your support from Israeli theocracy and Ukronazis,just like Ukrainian regime is getting punished for it's part in iraq war,God is just, alhamdullah.

[@rxtr664]

I don't think Israel cares about Ukraine

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you so much Hugo. It was such an odd incident. And there are so many likely candidates for involvement. It certainly seems more than plausible that Azerbaijan was involved, especially given recent tensions between Baku and Tehran and Israel's support for Azerbaijan against Iran.

[@itzikashemtov6045]

@@rxtr664 Tell that to all the Ukrainian flags standing alongside Israeli ones on many streets and balcony's and even cars in many cities here. Russia is fully to blame for supplying our enemies their AK's/SAMs/Tanks/ATGM's that killed many good soldiers, Hope we will see Harop drones destroying Russian trenches and command posts very soon.

[@rxtr664]

@@itzikashemtov6045 I've barely seen any 'Israeli flags' in Ukraine. But that's not an indication that Israel gives a crap about Ukraine (Israelis only care about themselves). What did Israel provide Ukraine with? How does it compare to what the western world is providing? And the only reason Israel feels compelled to provide _something_ to Ukraine is due to US pressure to do so, not out of good will. Ukrainians should be raising US, Polish, British, and other European countries' flags; not Israeli ones. Also, how is the fact that other countries are using Russian weaponry makes Russia directly involved in the death of Israelis? Israelis rely mainly on western weaponry, so what?! You're going to stop countries from selling and buying weapons (unless they're purchased by Israel) just so that ur beloved soldiers not get hurt?! F-king really?!! Are you living in a fairytale by any chance? Also, also, before the Ukraine war Russia maintained strong relations with Israel and, for the most part, supported it. Had they been an enemy of Israel they would've stopped you from conducting your bombing raids in Syria. This is actually the main reason why Israel is so hesitant to provide Ukraine with military support. Anyhow, all this is fairly obvious, and well known. But Zionist live in fairytale land, so we end up having these "arguments"

[@aliceresnick4195]

Thank you for this rich information and history!! I appreciate it!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much! It is such an interesting relationship.

[@Yesnoyesno720]

Great perspective. I watch nearly every video since finding your channel over a year ago 🙌

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks you so much Benjamin. That is so great to hear. I really appreciate all the support! :-)

[@Todd.B]

thx James, the beginning sounded very James Bond (ish). lol I do remember hearing about that when it happened and then nothing, I had forgotten about it.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Haha! Thanks Todd! Yes, all very strange.

[@salilbhatnagar]

Great video Professor! Middle Eastern politics and issues are a big headache.

[@reintaler6355]

A headache for you is a life-and-death drama for tens of millions

[@paulheydarian1281]

Yes, they are. I'd rather have a forced labotomy than think about Mid-Eastern politics.

[@xxDHix17xx]

Professor, thank you for the consistent, high-quality content. Your view counts don’t reflect the quality of the videos… yet.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Many thanks indeed! Every view is always appreciated. :-)

[@bualisina2670]

@@JamesKerLindsay This so called Atack was carried by Anti-Regime thugs with some quadcopters with small bombs ! Fake state of Israhell is not even close to be a match for iran . First trying of direct attack of this fake state is equal to it's last one and it's existence ! Within half of hour fake state of israhell will turn into 2.nd moon of planet earth in orbit , for Free and for Ever ! Do Try it , and Find it out , whether it's a Bluff or reality . We masters in Iran are waiting ! until then .

[@MrJohnnybeeeeeeee]

If this was Israel it is devastating to the Iranian regime to be hit so deep into the country at such an important military site. I believe this is a message to the Iranians that Israel has the capability to get through their defences with precision. I think Israel is also testing that hypothesis with this strike.

[@abelradebe9644]

It was intercepted just above the roof, only debris fell on the roof.

[@mikeyyy10000]

@@abelradebe9644 that’s what the mad mullahs want you to think 😂 ⚔️ 🛡 🦁 🇮🇱 🦁 🛡 ⚔️

[@letXeqX]

@@abelradebe9644 Look at the satellite photos from yesterday that AP published, there's a lot of damage.

[@bualisina2670]

This so called Atack was carried by Anti-Regime thugs with some quadcopters with small bombs ! Fake state of Israhell is not even close to be a match for iran . First trying of direct attack of this fake state is equal to it's last one and it's existence ! Within half of hour fake state of israhell will turn into 2.nd moon in orbit , for Free and for Ever ! Do Try it , and Find it out , whether it's a Bluff or reality . We masters in Iran are waiting ! until then .

[@mikeyyy10000]

@@bualisina2670 1. Iran knows how powerful little Israel is, they defeated multiple arab armies numerous times in defensive wars in short periods of time (despite the arabs having much more fighters & more advanced weaponry supplied by the soviets) eventually the arab armies gave up & now some even side with Israel (soon it will be Saudi joining the abraham accords) 2. Israel very likely has the most capable army in the world when it comes to air & fighter jets, due to the distance much of the battle would be in the air & the Iranians won’t stand much a chance in that regard. 3. Iranians own people is turning against them & more & more are supporting Israel. This gives Israel another advantage from a psychological pov. 4. The only country Isis publicly admitted they didn’t want to mess with was Israel (you can find these sources online in newspapers such as the independent who did a piece on it) that in itself speaks volumes. Isis were fearful of Israelis because of their hands on experience in middle east territory & believed they could not defeat them & concerned Israel would do significant damage to the caliphate if they poked that bear. 5. See the amount of previous successful operations Israel has conducted & successfully pulled off despite the very serious risks & dangers. The only way Iran could win is with advanced nukes which Iran knows USA & Israel both have nukes & therefore nobody wins (but Israel has been taking care of that side of things anyway setting back Irans nuclear capability)

[@arturpereira607]

Middle Eastern politics are so complicated.

[@AbdulRehman-kz7lc]

Iran alone is creating 50% of the syllabus 😑

[@alking_am842]

Thanks to Europe 1-France installing mullah’s regime (u can look it up 2-Britain promising jewish European communities a country in Palestine

[@flowersofthefield340]

Spiders Web 🕸

[@petersz9581]

I am happy to join your channel!!!!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed Péter! A very warm welcome. :-)

[@peterkops6431]

Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you Peter!

[@thomassenbart]

Good analysis.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you!

[@lololo6345]

This could turn ugly really quickly

[@RawKnee1111]

Lets hope Iran wipes the land thieves of the map.

[@MotiMota15]

@@RawKnee1111 nothing smart to say

[@baddolphin1423]

@@RawKnee1111 Nope

[@itzikashemtov6045]

@@RawKnee1111 Funny enough the previous holders are even bigger thieves if to look at ur logic lmao

[@markaxworthy2508]

My theory is that a visiting Russian military mission was smoking carelessly. The Russian military, after all, have self-confessed form for this within the last year.

[@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022]

Truly, the deadliest Weapon of Mass Destruction. A Russian smoker

[@mojewjewjew4420]

You must be the type to check for Putin under your bed before going to sleep, with the lights on ofcourse, most cringe statement.

[@markaxworthy2508]

@@mojewjewjew4420 You need to develop a sense of humour.

[@mojewjewjew4420]

@@markaxworthy2508 You mean to lower the sens of humour to the void and even then this "joke" wouldnt be funny.

[@meronghebresilassie8895]

Hello James, we need a major update on the war that has concluded in the Horn of Africa. How important was Eritrea’s entry to the war?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. You are right. I will hopefully come back to this soon. By the way, @fredorockwell has just posted a quick summary of Eritrea for anyone interested. kzbin.info/www/bejne/h4aqnqWurbyJgJo

[@arthurjames2658]

James, you seem to be full of crap. Try some more fiber in your diet, boi.

[@flowersofthefield340]

Good overview ........

[@mrlabutler]

You should turn these into podcasts - I love your insights and would enjoy then while I drive

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks so much. Great suggestion. I have thought about doing this. I am not sure how the visuals would work, although I am not as map and graphics heavy as other channels. I might try to give it a go. It might also be a little bit easier as I have just invested in a new microphone that might be better for this. (I am just setting it up now and testing it.) I also have to think about suitable platforms. Any suggestions?

[@c.t.8614]

@@JamesKerLindsay Anchor podcasts is a free platform If you just want to paste the videos into a podcast feed

[@EricZucchini]

Great video as always! I know it wasn't the main theme of the video, but it didn't become very clear to me at 4:26 why the relation deteriorated in the 80's. Was Lebanon a key Iranian ally? What does the PLO have to do with it?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Eric. In June 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon to take on the PLO. However, just months later, Lebanese Christian allies of Israel committed two massacres at Palestinian refugee camps. This had a huge effect on opinion in much of the Muslim world.

[@thipayajones]

These information how come never shown up till now Sir!!! Thanks about these news and I'm try hard do not leaves comment which go to up - set any one Sir!!!

[@XerxesGammon200]

All the facts stated were correct. I would add that the Shah's hesitation in accepting Israel as a state was due to the strong connection (via marriage) to Egypt's royal family at the time until 1948. Iran was not prejudice towards Jews or Israel until 1979. I

[@flowersofthefield340]

Yes ..... !!

[@andrewsarantakes639]

So many actors could have executed this clandestine operation. More important is this event is embarrassing, but more importantly a fact has been proven; a high impact operation was easy to execute with probably a high success rate. It demonstrates massive vulnerability; akin to Mathis Rust landing a small plane in Red Square in 1987 thus proving Soviet & Warsaw Pact air defense capabilities were extremely easy to breech. Great platform with excellent content. Keep up your great efforts!👍

[@dragonstormdipro1013]

Hate to be that guy, but US incident regarding failure of Air Defence was significantly worse than a plane landing on Red Square

[@seanclark2085]

Last week an Iranian minister claimed the attack was launched from Iraqi Kurdistan!!!!!!

[@zorzanleonhardt]

Spot on

[@johannesramokgadi6243]

A small attack like this doesn't weaken Iran at all.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

No. Perhaps not. But it does show that it is vulnerable and has rather a lot of enemies.

[@nidhinkn5980]

Iran is becoming wealthy and fearless.

[@wessexexplorer]

Another fine video. Note the comprehensive list of states that could plausibly want to attack Iran. James did leave off the list the people of Iran, though.

[@Tmb1112]

I got to say... it doesn't seem all that shadowy. Seems pretty out-in-the-open.

[@majuscule8883]

Israel never stopped to impress me.

[@RawKnee1111]

Israel never stopped terrorizing and stealing land in Palestine.

[@Viclip24]

Because their time on Palestine is almost over I see their destruction coming soon

[@K55365]

'Major attack' it was a small quadcopter and the damage was negligible because the building in question had anti drone mesh.

[@LightWeightsBebe]

I would agree, overall a failed very underwhelming operation. Not sure what this Brit is on about.

[@DanielMousavi1]

The attack did little meaningful damage if you look at the satellite imagery, mesh nets caught the drones.

[@LightWeightsBebe]

I would agree, overall a failed very underwhelming operation.

[@mohamedyusufmohamud8193]

The irony is that Israel 🇮🇱 has nuclear weapons although they had never admitted it .

[@likemike6107]

Saudi politics works low key and in silence. Very well could be the Saudis considering MBS did mention in an interview a few years back, that he'd take the war directly to Iran after their actions in the region. Israel is very well aware that they have the upper hand on Iran and have had no issues admitting past attacks on Iranian soil. Interesting take sir as I kind of briefly thought about whether Saudi could be behind it.

[@ricktasker8248]

You did not mention the escalating attacks by each side on the other side's oil tankers.

[@ismaciilcabdillahiyuusuf2650]

The World with peace, unity and love,,, watching from berbera somaliland rep,,, thanks for all info news,,,

[@jossefjossikajit4169]

Very intresting They sent already the real message YOU CAN RUN BUT YOU CAN NOT HIDE PERFECT SIGNAL

[@jonlenihan4798]

What you omit: Why the elimination of Israel is a central Iranian foreign policy goal. Persuading Arab regimes to back Iran has run its course. Iranian forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen have compelled the Arabs to take a second look at "our Persian brothers." Iranian opposition to Israel is a part of rationale for the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas-Asad axis, but Iran-in-the-Arab-Levant is a costly adventure. What does Iran gain for it's blood and treasure? There is no reciprocal Israeli mission to eliminate Iran.

[@y.israel922]

Madness 😠

[@michaelhenault1444]

James Mideast politics can murky as you point out. What are the chances that semi-independent actors are involved? Reports linking Azerbaijan suggest their proximity to Isfahan might explain a drone attack. Of course, it's impossible to know now and may never be known, but freelancing occured to me so to have greater plausible deniability for any of the state actors.

[@ShmuelMe]

Will You make a specific video about the current Israeli government and how it is following the path of Poland and Hungary into authoritarianism? Im interested to hear your opinion... At least the Middle East is never boring, the last week here in Israel has been a bit of a rollercoaster...

[@theman44ful]

I’m so sorry you have to be in the middle of things as they devolve. I have family in Israel and it’s just a mess. Stay safe.

[@ShmuelMe]

@@theman44ful it’s actually still pretty safe here if you’re not in Jerusalem or the West Bank. But there is a political storm, because the current radical right-wing government is trying to “reform the judiciary”(make it weaker and have politicians appoint judges) , and it’s rather convenient, because several members of this government are facing criminal charges. So there are demonstrations every week, and a bit of a battle between the court and the state.

[@koontekinte0]

A rollercoaster means there are some sections in which the train goes up. My personal experience is that we are going streight down...

[@mojewjewjew4420]

Poland and hungary arent authoritarian you muppet, here we go with the western narrative of anyone they dont like is "authoritarian"

[@ShmuelMe]

@@mojewjewjew4420 I have less knowledge on Poland but Hungary is a dictatorship in almost everything but name. There is no realistic scenario in which the opposition wins an election...

[@constantinradu6354]

It's complexity will prevail and dust will rise soon.

[@Jackrobert28]

It is not wise to pull the West into another front. We don't need oil prices going up again either. A long term diplomatic way has to be pushed by the EU as migration will be the least of the problem if this keeps escalating.

[@0816M3RC]

We don't need another North Korea and the Iranian people are crying out for freedom.

[@itzikashemtov6045]

Ahhh the good old appeasement way! It sure as hell worked last time right?

[@mojewjewjew4420]

@@itzikashemtov6045 Idiot, back then they didnt have nuclear weapons, would you have us wipe humanity out for your stupid pride? Even so its far from appeasement, its called using your brain.

[@itzikashemtov6045]

@@mojewjewjew4420 Stop acting like a pathetic dog and realize that Russians aren't complete idiots either, They know the West has the same amount of bombs as they do and it can end really badly for them aswell. That's why they are still fighting in conventional war style taking massive loses over stupidly small chunks of land every day for almost a year now. The idea of a nuclear attack isn't even on Putins table unless the real borders of Russia will be threatened (Not the made-up states of Luhansk/Dontesk) Crimea is debatable, If he looses it, He will loose his head with it.

[@A25777]

I hope they don't escalate and still have reason and smart people there.

[@benjauron5873]

It seems to me that those Revolutionary Guards need to learn to stop smoking so near those nuclear facilities...

[@scottlyons8130]

Can the cooperation of Saudi Arabia and Israel have some part in helping those other countries. Also could this been a Murder on the Oriental Express type of actions?

[@XXx-mk8dk]

KZbin is translating video titels? Its translating horrible? Is this just my setup or related to video?

[@EbonySaints]

I occasionally try to type stuff in Arabic to brush up on it, and I end up getting a lot of English videos from KZbinrs, who I know are exclusively English speakers, translated into Arabic. It really annoys me, since if I wanted to watch them or that topic in English, I'd type it in English, not العربية. KZbin seems content in keeping me in a content cage.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks. Where are you watching or what language are you using? It is a problem. In the past, YT allowed viewers to fix subtitles but they stopped that.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

@EbonySaints Great point. I think the YT is doing this for people who don’t speak English at all to give them access to content otherwise unavailable to them. Unfortunately, it didn’t get you out of your bubble, but hopefully it gets a lot of people elsewhere out of theirs. By the way, YT is also experimenting with auto translated voiceovers. That could be an interesting development, for better or fit worse. :-)

[@amandeepjohal2587]

Very misleading not mentioning the only country in the region to have nuclear weapons. Also at the end not mentioning the fact that a certain ethnic minority group was allowed to leave the Ukraine to go to their second home

[@ramirocatasena9478]

SHADOW ???

[@markaxworthy2508]

Another useful topic might be: Why is there no formal alliance between Israel and the USA? Israel seems to be a US ally that isn't actually an ally. Why?

[@VanguardArmament]

Being an ally means that they have to come to each others' direct aid during a military conflict. Israel has a very high probability of entering a war with its neighbors. The US being an ally means that US soil becomes a valid target for attacks once Israel gets embroiled in a war. It doesn't serve the US's interests to declare a formal alliance.

[@markaxworthy2508]

@@VanguardArmament Is that not true of any alliance, such as NATO? And doesn't 9/11 indicate that it doesn't take a formal alliance for that to happen?

[@VanguardArmament]

@@markaxworthy2508 Yes that is true of NATO, but none of the countries in NATO are on the brink of war (except for Turkey who is really pushing their limits). A requirement to join NATO is that a country must have no ongoing conflicts. Meanwhile, Israel is continuously engaged in conflicts with its neighbors all the time. 9/11 is a one-off terrorist attack that used civilian planes to ram into buildings. That is nothing compared to a conflict with real military weapons. Imagine if instead of a plane crash, it was continuous missile strikes from a state entity. It doesn't serve the US to expose itself to that.

[@markaxworthy2508]

@@VanguardArmament Israel doesn't have to be in NATO for it to be covered by a formal agreement with the USA. 9/11 remains an effective attack on the USA, conventional or not. Moreover, it was tied to US support for Israel even without a treaty. No state player in the Middle East has had the capacity to hit the US with missiles since the foundation of Israel, so this is an illusory threat.

[@ThienHoang-tr3dh]

The NATO also secretly fighting Russia in Ukraine. So, they should not be suprised for Iran to do the same in Palestine.

[@infrared2084]

The explosion wasn’t very big, i’m sure there’s an expert in the comment section that will tell us what size munition was used here

[@rpgbb]

This is the Risk Game in Real Life! “Kamchatka attacks Alaska” 😅

[@debsmith5520]

What I find incredibly frustrating about this are the double standards. Replace the name of one the key players with China, North Korea , and everyone would be screaming for sanctions and bombs.

[@koontekinte0]

Thank you very much professor, for this video. As an Israeli I often wonder what is the true benefit from these covert operations. More often then not, the tactical win means nothing in the bigger picture (like killing the Iranian nuclear scientists, cyber attacks and many more operations merely slowed iran down for a little while. And clearly Hamas and Hizballah are a small nuisence for Israel)

[@AK_UK_]

I think the Iran and Israel conflict is mostly all talk. Iran has never fought Israel.

[@D00MMAST3R]

🧢😐

[@outlawfly664]

They have fought genius, through it's proxy Hezbollah which has defeated Israel in every single conflict.

[@thetabbyguy921]

Only through their small allied militias like Hezbollah which the Israeli military can handle.

[@AK_UK_]

@@outlawfly664 fact remains, Iran and Israel have never fought. In fact, Iran and Israel cooperated with each other against Saddam. Hezbollah really is nothing, just a mouthpiece with Hassan Nasrallah screaming from his bedroom. If Israel wanted to, they could take them out but they are useful idiots.

[@outlawfly664]

@@AK_UK_ You're dreaming kid and your interpretation of facts which is nothing more than strawman. "If they wanted to"? The have like "wanted to" for decades and each conflict ended with the apartheid state tail hiding between it's legs, today they are armed to the teeth mind you, they are trained, equipped and financed by Iran. Iran didn't cooperate, they shared common enemy and due to post revolution crisis and international arms embargo Iran was quite desperate to get whatever weapons they could get, Israel thought they could buy Irans loyalty in that regard, today in case you haven't noticed they aren't even close of having the same problems with a full fledged military industry.

[@thomasjohnson2862]

Question: why is there concern around Iran’s nuclear program specifically, when loads of other countries and adversaries of the West like Russia have them? I’ve never quite found out the answer

[@spookyt8692]

I saw this and just put it on my list of “background bubble up” but considering the state of the world and who’s been supplying who ect, I do think this is the build up to a global war. Everyone keeps “avoiding” direct warfare but I imagine “mission creep.” As the parameters of national and global security continually shift. There is a lot of bad blood between a lot of countries and now is the time to make friends and begin to think about settling scores.

[@johndewit6877]

Imagine the outrage if Iran did such an attack on Israel. The double standard!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

To be fair, it often does far worse. As I explained, Iran supports groups that regularly attack Israel with missiles. This was a relatively small drone strike. That was precisely my point. The attack is part of a long-standing covert war between the two.

[@johndewit6877]

@@JamesKerLindsay Its not a secret that Israel supports groups in Iran known for their involvement in some major terror attacks, assassinations, and the blowing up of nuclear facilities. Hard to not notice how Western media tends to downplay and justify those attacks and give a pass to these clear acts of state terrorism of a directly involved state (Israel).

[@likemike6107]

Another interesting view here is from the book "Treatorous Alliance" by Trita Parsi who investigated the relationship between the Iran, Israel & US. He interviewed 30 top ranking politicians/officals from each of three countries and asked them a simple question, on the lines of 'could there ever be a possibility of friendship' and every single official of all three sides said yes. So I sometimes wander if there is some sort of secret and unspoken allied relationship between the 3, in order to divide the Arab world, considering a unified Arab world is a genuine threat? Another thing I will add that it is known that there are Israeli politicians who believe friendship with Iran is more important than any other in the region, due the fact that they believe they have more in common with the Persian culture, compared to the Arab. Also I won't forget to mention that Iran has the largest Jewish community in the region after Israel, who live in peace and prosperity. Which is quite surprising considering their religious relationship with Israel and the Iranian regimes so called despise of it. Makes one think.

[@jonlenihan4798]

There are fewer than 8000 Jews remaining in Iran. There are 200,000 Persian Jews in Israel, and 70,000 in Los Angeles. The Jews preceded Muslims in Persia by 11 centuries. The arrival of Muslims turned the Jews into "foreigners." This is true of all Muslim conquered places, including Israel. Christendom was the same.

[@likemike6107]

@@jonlenihan4798 Canan the home of the Cananites existed during the Bronze age, before there was anything called Israel. They were forcefully removed from their land by the Jews and most Cananites ended up settling in Arabia and are today known as the Alkanani tribe. The truth of the region and its history had been highly modified by Rabbis and The Roman Empire for economic & political gain. Sit down.

[@jonlenihan4798]

@@likemike6107 The great thing about an illiterate culture, is that you can invent any kind of story, without worrying about if it makes sense.

[@likemike6107]

@@jonlenihan4798 thank you for accepting the truth.

[@theconqueringram5295]

Yeah, Israel and Iran have locked the Middle East in a miniature Cold War. And like the Cold War, the US and USSR never attacked each other directly, but through proxies. Still, this shadow war is concerning.

[@bingflosby]

No one is talking about this

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Yes. It does seem strange. It clearly happened. It was serious. And yet it has received very little coverage. I suspect that it is precisely because we don’t know exactly what happened that many news organisations didn’t give it more attention. It’s all very speculative, as I tried to show. The advantage of doing a channel like this is that I could put it into the wider context of a discussion on covert conflict in international relations and explain a little about the history. News organisations don’t tend to do this and so aren’t left with much to say concretely! :-)

[@bingflosby]

@@JamesKerLindsay subbed and love the content keep up the great work

[@JamesKerLindsay]

@@bingflosby Thanks so much! A very warm welcome the channel. :-)

[@paulstephen3257]

Please do a video on these weird chinese spy balloons hovering over the U.S and Latin america. As weird as this situation is, I bet it has plenty of implications for international relations given that sovereign airspace was breached over multiple countries.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Paul. I might try to look at it. But it’s been getting a lot of coverage and I am not sure what value added I can provide at this stage. I also tend to find that videos on big news stories just get drowned out.

[@harukrentz435]

Happened in a very convenient timing as Blinken was about to visit China. Hahaha

[@paulheydarian1281]

From one Paul to another Paul. Learn to read between the lines, Paul. Stop believing what the MSM tells you. Focus on items that you don't hear about.

[@paulstephen3257]

@@paulheydarian1281 I don't understand the context of what you are saying. Are you suggesting that this was just some civilian weather balloon that happened to drift into U.S airspace? If so I think you are being a bit naive? Russia and china have been ramping up their espionage and cyber attacks well before this, and it is not just main stream media that covers this type of topic. I'm not saying the U.S government is innocent by any means, but the fact that this "weather balloon" was caught over an ICBM site makes this even worse.

[@paulstephen3257]

@@JamesKerLindsay Fair enough and no hard feelings. I think airspace is going to be an interesting arena for international law and politics given that more countries are trying to get more satellites in orbit or even go beyond that.

[@miladion4212]

Viva Iran ✌✌

[@kabdul9208]

This won’t be happening ever! It’s just politics that’s it

[@worldofmix6766]

It was 3 Quadcopters launched from within Iran by payed smugglers

[@tatradak]

A proper who done it!!

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Indeed! :-)

[@soundmind9772]

One valid strategy would be for Iran to publicly admit that they cannot confirm that State A was responsible and subsequently retaliate against a weaker ally to State A claiming that they suspect guilt. Punishing a weaker country could be an effective deterrent to clandestine international crimes. It would be even better if the attack on the weaker country was fake and they simply played along. This type of retaliation serves two purposes. #1 Iran can save face by appearing strong and #2 Public perception of State A is lower because it looks like State A caused an innocent country to take the blame, especially if the truth is later admitted or discovered.

[@MyMy-tv7fd]

#goMossad, long range bombing begins in 2025 when the US long range bomber refuelling tankers are delivered and Israel fully confident of training

[@Viclip24]

The west and us as super power is almost over just give it a decade and you will israel doesn't exist

[@amirjamshidi332]

Throwing a coktwlmolotov has more damage that that drone attack

[@the0ne809]

Can someone explain me how Ukraine and Belarus were able to vote in the 1947 UN resolution?

[@letXeqX]

I can't fully explain it, but I've read that the soviet union at the time wanted more votes in the UN supporting their positions, so they did what was necessary to have them recognized as "independant" countries. Would also be pleased if someone could add to this, it's interesting.

[@lashachakhunashvili1399]

The USSR had three seats in the UN thanks to Stalin's insistence (who initially wanted all the Soviet republics to member in the organization separately). The professor has already done a video about this: kzbin.info/www/bejne/sGG1qIqQjcqVY5I

[@letXeqX]

@@lashachakhunashvili1399 Thank you!

[@lashachakhunashvili1399]

@@letXeqX my pleasure 👌

[@croatianhistoryandidentity8261]

2:35 There was no United Kingdom Yugoslavia in 1947

[@JamesKerLindsay]

You have conflated the United Kingdom and Yugoslavia. They are (were) two countries. That'll teach you to view everything through a narrow Balkan prism! :-)

[@croatianhistoryandidentity8261]

@@JamesKerLindsay Oh, sorry. Thanks!

[@waindayoungthain2147]

Wasn’t that the same guy who made? In the over lawsuit case in the Israeli courts and the Butcher grinder court today listens for his manager of Boris! It’s the same thing with his manager on the Eu. 🤔

[@JamesKerLindsay]

What!?

[@twistedyogert]

So that's why the Persians are burying their important stuff underground.

[@dylanhardy4407]

In some point, Iranian TV accused the Northern Iraqi Kurds for this attack without justifications.

[@DemPilafian]

From a propaganda perspective, that's brilliant! The brutal authoritarian mullas are solving two of their problems with one stone.

[@sg_hokkien_opera]

6:38 if it’s indeed Israeli drones that carried out the attack, Iran doesn’t have any right to show itself as a victim. Let’s remember Iran keeps supplying Russia with suicide drones that are used to inflict damage on Ukraine. Iran being Iran has no reservations about lying outright and claims it’s not supplying any drones.

[@ricardoospina5970]

Unless Israel was using a new weapon, which knowing Israel is possible, none of the long range loitering munitions have the range to hit the Iranian base from Israel, so that means it was launched from Saudi Arabia, a different Gulf country with an axe to grind, or Azerbaijan. My guess is a Harop from Azerbaijan, Israel was very helpful to them in the Nagorno-Karabakh war and they don't have good relations with Iran.

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks a lot. Interesting. That would make a lot of sense, especially given worsening ties between Iran and Azerbaijan, and the close relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan, especially after the war with Armenia. It is getting all rather complicated and interwoven, isn’t it!?

[@LightWeightsBebe]

Overall a failed very underwhelming operation. Satellite images simply show changes in the colour of the roof.

[@freezinginferno2106]

Professor, what are your thoughts about USs liberty

[@mikeyyy10000]

Hey doofus Israel has already addressed this incident which happened decades ago in the height of a defensive war (where technology wasn’t advanced) & has also compensated families. It was an accident. Israel had been in a defensive war with much of its neighbours & there were communication issues & Israel didn’t know it was a US ship. The entire area was a conflict/war zone & these things can & do happen in war. What are your thoughts on the 40,000 + terror attacks in the name of the religion of islam since 9/11? & them being the only ones we know about/documented. What are your thoughts on the American invasion of Iraq & Afghanistan leading to the murder of millions. What are your thoughts on Abu Grave?? But yeah Israel bad 🤪

[@muhammadshehreyarkhan1851]

0:19 Why would it even receive a media coverage at all? After all, a failed attempt is disastrous for media projection or political standing. If the intended objective would have been achieved, only then the newspapers & television tickers would be filled with victory highlights.

[@shayk1546]

As an Israeli you covered this topic perfectly. I wanna add that another Iranian proxy that operates in the Palestinian territories is the "Islamic jihad". The west bank is a Jordanian term (since the 49-67 Jordanian occupation) while it's historical name is Judea & Samaria. Great job 👍

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thank you very much indeed. I really appreciate it. (And good point about Islamic Jihad.) It would be interesting to know whether there has been much discussion in Israel about this?

[@shayk1546]

@@JamesKerLindsay about the attack on the Iranian facility? Absolutely. That facility (according to foreign sources of course) also had Iranian missile technologies with precision capabilities that the Iranian are/were planning to install. These things are game changer in warfare. FYI the Iranians blame the local Kurdish community for assisting us in this attack. They claim the kurds smuggled the drones they used for the attack.

[@letXeqX]

​@@JamesKerLindsay Just to add to Shay, Islamic Jihad is more dependent on (and controlled by) Iran than Hamas is. Thanks for your fair reporting on Israel, we're not used to that :) Just want to clarify one thing. The russian-Israeli community in Israel is in fact the most anti Putin and the war (they know him best). They should not be confused with russians in Estonia and Latvia. Yes, there has been discussion, but nowhere near the amount of the previous 2 attacks on Natanz and the attack on the head of the Iranian nuclear program. What's not understood internationally is the extent of Israeli penetration of Iran. For example there have been several reports of Mossad people interrogating Iranian security officials (with names provided) in their own homes in Iran! They work hand in glove with anti regime groups in Iran, and appear to know everything that is happening in the country.

[@noamstopler7776]

@@JamesKerLindsay As an Israeli , in Israel the media usually references foreign reports regarding those incidents . But in general the Israeli public is very indifferent to those deveploments at the moment and most of the attention revolves around Netanyahu's Judicial overhaul . we are riddled with domestic problems and thats what most of the people care about .

[@mojewjewjew4420]

@@noamstopler7776 Are israelis happy about Netanyahu's return?

[@bellohadiza9414]

If the world is fair enough they should allow and let only IRAN vs isreal to settle in the war without the support of any outsider and see who will win period .

[@ashkanmirzaei2608]

7 min ;)

[@danielpalmer643]

I think Iran isn't doing much about this because they are afraid of their own people. They are afraid of emphasizing it but having the domestic response be indifference. "Amicus meus, inimicus inimici mei", the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Iranian protestors surely know that Americans and Israelis consider morality police oppressive. Israel and the United States would love to see the protests topple the theocracy, but can't do anything overtly since there is a sort of reverse psychology at play, or at least seemed to be in 2009. When the dust all settles, I hope and pray for a free Iran, Russia, Ukraine, and world.

[@brianniziol6479]

When was the last time Iran attacked Israel?

[@JamesKerLindsay]

As I explained, proxies count in these types of covert conflict. Iran supports Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. So, in fact, Iran has attacked Israel quite a lot.

[@coreysmith8489]

A war with Iran would cost many American lives and Israel is willing to make that sacrifice.

[@davidprobert4171]

Tyler Duran, A war with Iran by the U.S and Israel would cost many American and Israeli lives,, true .... but most of the WORLD is willing to make that sacrafice...

[@coreysmith8489]

@@davidprobert4171 Not really. None of Iran neighbors feel threatened by Iran. Pakistan even told the United States it could not use bases on their soil to attack Iran.

[@sinazand154]

What is your opinion on a possible revolution in Iran? can people overthrow the terrorist regime? would and security threat come after the revolution by the neighbors?

[@oribarazani2628]

Nice pic for the video but kohavi is not in the military no more

[@JamesKerLindsay]

I know. But you try to find good images that don’t cost a fortune (just take a look at the news stock image providers) but get the message across. Not nearly as easy as you think!

[@LightWeightsBebe]

Poorly commented on. Firstly your report was very israel sentric. 2ndly the drone was a commercially acquired drone locally launched. Minimal damage, the video shows a large spark or flash of light providing no evidence that the damage was material. Over a very underwhelming operation that was more for show and tell. Also any thoughts on who was behind the destruction of USS BONHOMME RICHARD (2 billion $ aircraft carrier) and the CIA Plane crash over Afghanistan all within 4 months after Qassem soleimani assassination? 🤔

[@theobserver9131]

Let's throw the rulers and supporters of those rulers from both countries into a big arena and make them fight it out. Last man standing gets a shiny sticker and a coupon for 10% off their next Domino pizza. ...and the right to live the rest of their life in Siberia.

[@Felixxxxxxxxx]

The auto-translated name of the video makes no sense in Swedish. It would have been better if you just kept the English name. Also if people cannot read English they will not understand what you are saying anyways

[@JamesKerLindsay]

Thanks Felix. How would you translate it?

[@outlawandoutdoorstv9901]

There isnt much that sounds conspiratorial anymore ! Its pretty well known that most conspiracy theories are proven to be conspiracy fact more often than not .

[@hussainabdulla127]

THE DRONE WAS USED WERE HOBBY DRONES NOT THE MILITARY DRONES, THOSE WHO CARRIED ARE IRANIAN OPPOSITION WHO ARE WORKING WITH ISRAELI. FOR SURE THE DRONES DIDN'T FLY FROM NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES.

[@merxho95]

I support Israel in their fight against Iran.

[@KOSOVA-IS-Albania]

Why risk that Israel could start a nuclear war 😑

[@460mas]

Israel Iran relations should start in 550 BCE not 1948 CE

[@JamesKerLindsay]

This isn’t a history channel, as such. I mentioned that there was a well-established Jewish presence in Iran. But my focus is on contemporary international relations so the obvious starting point was 1947.

[@relaxedsack1263]

Iran knows Russia cant cover for them.