Jack Leiter Pitch Shape Breakdown

[@Th0rity]

Lance, this is insanely quality content. Marquee is lucky to have you.

[@LanceBroz]

Appreciate that!

[@matthewknauer7466]

I think it’s really interesting to look at the results on the “baby sweepers” or “traditional sliders” that you talked about. a lot of times, their results play a bit above their stuff, which usually sits around 105-110. I think it comes from the fact that a lot of elite fastball guys throw it (strider, cole, jones, verlander, miller, even scherzer), so they are able to play it well off that fastball and get really good swstrike rates.

[@LanceBroz]

Yeah, that’s the theory I mention in the piece. Unsure if it’s backed up in the data but likely have to consider command alongside everything else in that equation, which can make things funky.

[@jimschultz2179]

FBT has me subscribing. Heard the name before. Didn’t know you had content.

[@LanceBroz]

Thanks for the sub! Hope you enjoy my stuff

[@PlaySA]

The intention of a cutter, to my mind, is to have that 'neutral' pitch. Batters are so often looking for fastballs and sliders, that when you get a medium-velo pitch with a relatively normal amount of drop for the speed, and very little horizontal movement, they'll actually swing over it (expecting fastball), or under it (expecting slider). They often won't miss it completely but a weak grounder or fly ball is just fine.

[@jcjvcjc98]

Day one of asking for a Casey Mize breakdown 🙏

[@LanceBroz]

Got some other stuff in the queue, but I’ll consider something on him 👍

[@jcjvcjc98]

@@LanceBroz Always appreciated 🙏

[@Kane-ib5sn]

nice analysis. it's nuts. i'd rather pitchers learn: to throw a 2-seam down in the zone, establish strike-1, 2...and then elevate with a 4-seam. particularly if you've got a pitcher enamored with his fastball, the way Leiter is. it would be far better for him to practice slowing his arm speed down - change up would reduce the wear and tear on his arm, and prolong his career. the slider and curve ball tend to be...almost variety pitches. at least with most pitchers.

[@jcjvcjc98]

It's good to see him elevating that fastball more effectively. That's not something I recall him doing much as Vandy. It also looks like it has more ride than it used to but idk if that is accurate. If he keeps that walk rate down he should have some success.

[@LanceBroz]

Yeah, the pitch has picked up some ride relative to 2023. I believe that’s due in part to something mechanically changing for him, as his release height and extension both jumped up a bit too. So likely something in the body influencing ball flight.

[@PlaySA]

He should really try that changeup low and inside on right handed hitters.

[@LanceBroz]

Hopefully he gets there eventually with that. His is so fresh that it might take a bit. I don’t think it’s necessary right now

[@lionelhutz8985]

What does "2 inches more vertical break than the average fastball so it's dropping LESS than average" mean?

[@LanceBroz]

Induced vertical break is measuring movement REMOVING gravity. So a vertical break number means it’s resisting gravity MORE and therefore dropping LESS. 👍 I made a video on this concept here: kzbin.info/www/bejne/rKjSZH2rrNl3d6csi=mgQi86ZsSw1Kl559

[@dwaynedixon4331]

Sounds like a rookie year Nolan Ryan scouting report.. we'll see

[@mikee2298]

how about call it a "sleeper" pitch

[@LanceBroz]

Think that would cause confusion given how the term “sleeper” is used normally But I like the idea!

[@mikee2298]

sliper?

[@ChrisBrown-ms7lv]

Call it a “swiper” or a “pseudo-slider” 😂

[@LanceBroz]

Pseudo slider is a tongue-twister, I like it 😂

[@simontheisen5431]

bro just gave the tigers a top tier scouting report for free

[@LanceBroz]

🫡🫡🫡

[@elianlorenzosaenz1413]

tigers still won’t do shit lol

[@prestonschumacher1314]

Why do you use tjstats stuff+? There’s no reason spin rate should be a factor in a stuff+ model. We only care about spin as a means to movement. The spin itself is irrelevant

[@seanmccormack8506]

Because there is a correlation between High spin and strikeout statistics, so if a 4S fastball has high spin rate it most likely is a high ride fastball which tends to lead to Strikeouts which equals better “Stuff”

[@prestonschumacher1314]

@@seanmccormack8506 We don’t need to assume the movement. It’s already provided. If it wasn’t provided then you would have a good point